Apple (AAPL) : Tim Cook announces iForum. Dodds and Bryant prepare shut down operations (1 Viewer)

[Sarnoff]

I'm not an AAPL hater as I have a decent amount in these guys, but where are we in relation to this?ETA: credit to siff for giving me that pic.

Man, this chart is nailing the story that is AAPL.

Looks to me like we're at "Fear".

 

[zDragon]

I'm not an AAPL hater as I have a decent amount in these guys, but where are we in relation to this?ETA: credit to siff for giving me that pic.

Man, this chart is nailing the story that is AAPL.

Looks to me like we're at "Fear".

Down to 447.nn after hours. It might just make it to $400. I think that would be a great pick up price.

 

[St. Louis Bob]

I'm not an AAPL hater as I have a decent amount in these guys, but where are we in relation to this?ETA: credit to siff for giving me that pic.

Man, this chart is nailing the story that is AAPL.

Looks to me like we're at "Fear".

My cousin's husband is a broker. I told him I bought 16 shares @ $531.00 and I was feeling pretty smug when it hit the mid six hundreds. He told me then to sell because in his opinion, it would see $350 soon. Thankfully I sold 9 shares at $521, wish I would have sold it all now. If it does go below $400, I'm going all in.

 

[Politician Spock]

I'm not an AAPL hater as I have a decent amount in these guys, but where are we in relation to this?ETA: credit to siff for giving me that pic.

Man, this chart is nailing the story that is AAPL.

 

[The Commish]

Engadget

For the the company's recently ended quarter, Mac sales totaled 4.1 million -- that's in stark contrast to the 5.2 million sold in the previous year-ago quarter. This startling nugget comes despite the fact that Apple issued a refreshed iMac just before the close of the holiday season -- normally a boon time for sales.

There's still nothing close to the iPod out on the market IMO. My wife asked me to research those kinds of gadgets as she wanted to buy me one for Christmas...there's NOTHING CLOSE to an iPod Touch.

How is the ipod touch any better than one of these?http://www.virginmobileusa.com/shop/cell-phones/htc-one-v-phone/features/I picked one of these up for $50 brand new over the holidays. I listen to a ton of podcasts so it's nice to have an mp3 player that can download directly to the device rather than the need to transfer files from a computer to the device. I think they've hit that $50 price point two more times since then.

That's a phone. I wasn't looking for a phone.

Galaxy Player

I looked at this actually. For the price and 32G the iPod was actually cheaper. When I priced them, it was $220 for 8G. The sim card was another $45 to get it to 32G. The iPod has a nicer camera, smaller screen, faster processor for $16 cheaper.

Which generations of each were you comparing? ipod 4th gen vs Galaxy Player went to the galaxy in my opinion. The newest ipods look like crap but do have better specs. Then again I don't know if Samsung has refreshed the line recently or not.I would have to look up the specs but I am pretty sure the Galaxy had a faster processor, 3mp vs sub 1mp camerae, GPS, and supported way more audio and vidoe formats such as flac and ogg. The only thing I recall the ipod having a step up on the Galaxy was the resolution which on a small screen is not a deal breaker. Then as you mention expanding MicroSD.

It was the new iPod. 5g?? Curious what you mean about the looks? Mine's a black iPod that's very plane. I personally don't care what the stuff looks like as long as it does what I need it to. This thing looks like an iPhone only thinner.

The two tone design. White face sides and back colored. I do recall the black looking a little better. I also did not like the cheesy strap and pop up button on the back. So your telling me you wouldn't have waited or went somewhere else to get the black one? You would have just grabbed the pink or lime? The Galaxy would have served you better in playing all music formats and videos. So I think the fact that it was the Apple design also pulled you in not just being able to be the most capable device.

I don't need a million different formats. The words out of my mouth to my wife were exactly "do they make a device that is like the smartphone...has all the apps, plays music etc but doesn't require a data plan?" I use it to listen to mp3s and play game while I'm waiting in lines or on others. I do agree the colors are terrible. Blue and white are ok...would never own pink or lime, so I guess I take back my comment that I don't care what they look like....I do care a little bit about the color. You now have me looking for the "pop up button on the back"....mine doesn't have one of those. What's it for? I didn't get a strap with mine

 

[Sand]

I'm not an AAPL hater as I have a decent amount in these guys, but where are we in relation to this?ETA: credit to siff for giving me that pic.

Man, this chart is nailing the story that is AAPL.

It is the same for all bubbles. AAPL really is only a bubble in behavior - it never really was incredibly overpriced. At the peak it was a whopping 15. At this price their P/E is 10. That is about he same as Caterpillar and Intel - both companies in very mature markets. It is almost to the level of an Exxon, which is still a growing entity. Less than other mature companies like JNJ and AMGN and even MSFT. I think AAPL's growth curve is still well above any of those entities, even if you count in some erosion.I'm cheering for despair here so I can pick this thing up dirt cheap. A good scandal. Have Tim lose the keys to the money vault? Hire Lance Armstrong as a spokesman?

 

[St. Louis Bob]

I'm not an AAPL hater as I have a decent amount in these guys, but where are we in relation to this?ETA: credit to siff for giving me that pic.

Man, this chart is nailing the story that is AAPL.

It is the same for all bubbles. AAPL really is only a bubble in behavior - it never really was incredibly overpriced. At the peak it was a whopping 15. At this price their P/E is 10. That is about he same as Caterpillar and Intel - both companies in very mature markets. It is almost to the level of an Exxon, which is still a growing entity. Less than other mature companies like JNJ and AMGN and even MSFT. I think AAPL's growth curve is still well above any of those entities, even if you count in some erosion.I'm cheering for despair here so I can pick this thing up dirt cheap. A good scandal. Have Tim lose the keys to the money vault? Hire Lance Armstrong as a spokesman?

yep

 

[zDragon]

I don't need a million different formats. The words out of my mouth to my wife were exactly "do they make a device that is like the smartphone...has all the apps, plays music etc but doesn't require a data plan?" I use it to listen to mp3s and play game while I'm waiting in lines or on others. I do agree the colors are terrible. Blue and white are ok...would never own pink or lime, so I guess I take back my comment that I don't care what they look like....I do care a little bit about the color. You now have me looking for the "pop up button on the back"....mine doesn't have one of those. What's it for? I didn't get a strap with mine

If you have the newest model turn it over and look for the little metal circle at the bottom. Push and it will pop up for the strap...um loop...to be attached. Check it out here about mid page I think.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I'm not an AAPL hater as I have a decent amount in these guys, but where are we in relation to this?ETA: credit to siff for giving me that pic.

Man, this chart is nailing the story that is AAPL.

It is the same for all bubbles. AAPL really is only a bubble in behavior - it never really was incredibly overpriced. At the peak it was a whopping 15. At this price their P/E is 10. That is about he same as Caterpillar and Intel - both companies in very mature markets. It is almost to the level of an Exxon, which is still a growing entity. Less than other mature companies like JNJ and AMGN and even MSFT. I think AAPL's growth curve is still well above any of those entities, even if you count in some erosion.I'm cheering for despair here so I can pick this thing up dirt cheap. A good scandal. Have Tim lose the keys to the money vault? Hire Lance Armstrong as a spokesman?

450 seems dirt cheap for those of us holding a bunch of shares.

 

[Sand]

I'm not an AAPL hater as I have a decent amount in these guys, but where are we in relation to this?ETA: credit to siff for giving me that pic.

Man, this chart is nailing the story that is AAPL.

It is the same for all bubbles. AAPL really is only a bubble in behavior - it never really was incredibly overpriced. At the peak it was a whopping 15. At this price their P/E is 10. That is about he same as Caterpillar and Intel - both companies in very mature markets. It is almost to the level of an Exxon, which is still a growing entity. Less than other mature companies like JNJ and AMGN and even MSFT. I think AAPL's growth curve is still well above any of those entities, even if you count in some erosion.I'm cheering for despair here so I can pick this thing up dirt cheap. A good scandal. Have Tim lose the keys to the money vault? Hire Lance Armstrong as a spokesman?

450 seems dirt cheap for those of us holding a bunch of shares.

The trend is negative right now, so I'm holding out for a bit more panic selling.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I'm not an AAPL hater as I have a decent amount in these guys, but where are we in relation to this?ETA: credit to siff for giving me that pic.

Man, this chart is nailing the story that is AAPL.

It is the same for all bubbles. AAPL really is only a bubble in behavior - it never really was incredibly overpriced. At the peak it was a whopping 15. At this price their P/E is 10. That is about he same as Caterpillar and Intel - both companies in very mature markets. It is almost to the level of an Exxon, which is still a growing entity. Less than other mature companies like JNJ and AMGN and even MSFT. I think AAPL's growth curve is still well above any of those entities, even if you count in some erosion.I'm cheering for despair here so I can pick this thing up dirt cheap. A good scandal. Have Tim lose the keys to the money vault? Hire Lance Armstrong as a spokesman?

450 seems dirt cheap for those of us holding a bunch of shares.

The trend is negative right now, so I'm holding out for a bit more panic selling.

You're 100% correct. I'm disheartened by the fact that there wasn't a slight increase this afternoon after the morning sell off.

 

[The Z Machine]

WTF happened today?

 

[Politician Spock]

WTF happened today?

iPain

 

[The Commish]

I don't need a million different formats. The words out of my mouth to my wife were exactly "do they make a device that is like the smartphone...has all the apps, plays music etc but doesn't require a data plan?" I use it to listen to mp3s and play game while I'm waiting in lines or on others. I do agree the colors are terrible. Blue and white are ok...would never own pink or lime, so I guess I take back my comment that I don't care what they look like....I do care a little bit about the color. You now have me looking for the "pop up button on the back"....mine doesn't have one of those. What's it for? I didn't get a strap with mine

If you have the newest model turn it over and look for the little metal circle at the bottom. Push and it will pop up for the strap...um loop...to be attached. Check it out here about mid page I think.

I'll take your word for it...it's in a case that is a PITA to get it out of.

 

[The Z Machine]

WTF happened today?

iPain

T-Pain?

 

[Politician Spock]

WTF happened today?

iPain

T-Pain?

iLaughed

 

[SacramentoBob]

WTF happened today?

iPain

T-Pain?

2nd cousins.

 

[culdeus]

I'm not an AAPL hater as I have a decent amount in these guys, but where are we in relation to this?ETA: credit to siff for giving me that pic.

Man, this chart is nailing the story that is AAPL.

It is the same for all bubbles. AAPL really is only a bubble in behavior - it never really was incredibly overpriced. At the peak it was a whopping 15. At this price their P/E is 10. That is about he same as Caterpillar and Intel - both companies in very mature markets. It is almost to the level of an Exxon, which is still a growing entity. Less than other mature companies like JNJ and AMGN and even MSFT. I think AAPL's growth curve is still well above any of those entities, even if you count in some erosion.I'm cheering for despair here so I can pick this thing up dirt cheap. A good scandal. Have Tim lose the keys to the money vault? Hire Lance Armstrong as a spokesman?

450 seems dirt cheap for those of us holding a bunch of shares.

The trend is negative right now, so I'm holding out for a bit more panic selling.

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/1/24/is-apple-aapl-taking-the-microsoft-msft-path.html

 

[NutterButter]

I'm not an AAPL hater as I have a decent amount in these guys, but where are we in relation to this?ETA: credit to siff for giving me that pic.

Man, this chart is nailing the story that is AAPL.

It is the same for all bubbles. AAPL really is only a bubble in behavior - it never really was incredibly overpriced. At the peak it was a whopping 15. At this price their P/E is 10. That is about he same as Caterpillar and Intel - both companies in very mature markets. It is almost to the level of an Exxon, which is still a growing entity. Less than other mature companies like JNJ and AMGN and even MSFT. I think AAPL's growth curve is still well above any of those entities, even if you count in some erosion.I'm cheering for despair here so I can pick this thing up dirt cheap. A good scandal. Have Tim lose the keys to the money vault? Hire Lance Armstrong as a spokesman?

450 seems dirt cheap for those of us holding a bunch of shares.

The trend is negative right now, so I'm holding out for a bit more panic selling.

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/1/24/is-apple-aapl-taking-the-microsoft-msft-path.html

Another similarity was back during that period of decline from its peak, a positive of Microsoft was the huge pile of cash it was sitting on which I believe was around 40-50B.

 

[Politician Spock]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand what is happening to aapl.The stock has been a safe haven equity for many investors for quite some time now, which created a bubble within its stock price.As investors become more willing to take more risk because they believe the economy has turned the corner and is improving, they are exiting their safe haven positions (such as aapl) so they can move those funds into risker investments that they believe are undervalued. This is why appl is going down (and probaably will continue to go down) while the rest of the market goes up. It will be a while before the price of aapl is reconnected to the fundamentals of its business. Its price will bounce around like the price of gold and silver until it has lost its safe haven investment status. If you own aapl with the intention to hold on to it for the long term, then just ignore all this noise. Otherwise, aaple is only appealing to swing traders in the short term.

 

[tommyGunZ]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand what is happening to aapl.The stock has been a safe haven equity for many investors for quite some time now, which created a bubble within its stock price.As investors become more willing to take more risk because they believe the economy has turned the corner and is improving, they are exiting their safe haven positions (such as aapl) so they can move those funds into risker investments that they believe are undervalued. This is why appl is going down (and probaably will continue to go down) while the rest of the market goes up. It will be a while before the price of aapl is reconnected to the fundamentals of its business. Its price will bounce around like the price of gold and silver until it has lost its safe haven investment status. If you own aapl with the intention to hold on to it for the long term, then just ignore all this noise. Otherwise, aaple is only appealing to swing traders in the short term.

Doesn't a bubble imply that a stock was disconnected from it's fundamentals? Based on PE, EPS, and debt/income ratios, AAPL was never priced as a bubble stock - even at $705 it was a value buy fundamentally compared to the other big tech players.

 

[Politician Spock]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand what is happening to aapl.The stock has been a safe haven equity for many investors for quite some time now, which created a bubble within its stock price.As investors become more willing to take more risk because they believe the economy has turned the corner and is improving, they are exiting their safe haven positions (such as aapl) so they can move those funds into risker investments that they believe are undervalued. This is why appl is going down (and probaably will continue to go down) while the rest of the market goes up. It will be a while before the price of aapl is reconnected to the fundamentals of its business. Its price will bounce around like the price of gold and silver until it has lost its safe haven investment status. If you own aapl with the intention to hold on to it for the long term, then just ignore all this noise. Otherwise, aaple is only appealing to swing traders in the short term.

Doesn't a bubble imply that a stock was disconnected from it's fundamentals? Based on PE, EPS, and debt/income ratios, AAPL was never priced as a bubble stock - even at $705 it was a value buy fundamentally compared to the other big tech players.

There is no other tech stock to compare it to that is a fair comparison. It's cool for the masses to love Apple. It's not cool to love other tech companies, despite how many geeks have "I (heart) VMWARE" bumper stickers in their cubicles. If Apple ever loses it's "cool" factor, the love it has will collapse, along with revenue and PE. A lot of Apple's revenue is due to a lot of people who are just following the cool crowd, and that behavior can only last so long. Apple is essentially a fashion company in the technology sector. It's stock is more like Tiffany & Co and Ralph Lauren than it is like IBM or Cisco.

 

[humpback]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand what is happening to aapl.The stock has been a safe haven equity for many investors for quite some time now, which created a bubble within its stock price.As investors become more willing to take more risk because they believe the economy has turned the corner and is improving, they are exiting their safe haven positions (such as aapl) so they can move those funds into risker investments that they believe are undervalued. This is why appl is going down (and probaably will continue to go down) while the rest of the market goes up. It will be a while before the price of aapl is reconnected to the fundamentals of its business. Its price will bounce around like the price of gold and silver until it has lost its safe haven investment status. If you own aapl with the intention to hold on to it for the long term, then just ignore all this noise. Otherwise, aaple is only appealing to swing traders in the short term.

Not seeing this "safe haven" thing at all.

 

[Dentist]

If it does go below $400, I'm going all in.

can you define all-in for me? more as point of interest.I mean, if i said i was going all-in it would really only mean i'm going about 1/7th of the way in because most of my assets are not in a brokerage account where i can choose stocks.So i assume your all-in is really using a large portion of a small % of your overall assets?

 

[The Commish]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand what is happening to aapl.The stock has been a safe haven equity for many investors for quite some time now, which created a bubble within its stock price.As investors become more willing to take more risk because they believe the economy has turned the corner and is improving, they are exiting their safe haven positions (such as aapl) so they can move those funds into risker investments that they believe are undervalued. This is why appl is going down (and probaably will continue to go down) while the rest of the market goes up. It will be a while before the price of aapl is reconnected to the fundamentals of its business. Its price will bounce around like the price of gold and silver until it has lost its safe haven investment status. If you own aapl with the intention to hold on to it for the long term, then just ignore all this noise. Otherwise, aaple is only appealing to swing traders in the short term.

Doesn't a bubble imply that a stock was disconnected from it's fundamentals? Based on PE, EPS, and debt/income ratios, AAPL was never priced as a bubble stock - even at $705 it was a value buy fundamentally compared to the other big tech players.

This isn't about the financials IMO. It's about the confidence factor. I mentioned several pages ago about the shift from data driven value to confidence driven value that the market is undergoing. Back in the day, stock prices were driven by the financial statements of a company. That's becoming less and less true as people treat the stock market more and more like a gambling outlet. The onslaught of day traders has had a substantial impact on how the market now works. Ask Wachovia. They were a perfectly fine company by financial statement standards, but people "knew" they had some bad assets in their mortgage sector. The confidence in the company dropped (while the financials really hadn't changed at all) and they were consumed....at an ENORMOUS steal I might add. Anyway, my point is, folks understand/believe Jobs was the mastermind at Apple (myself included). There are those of us who believe there really isn't anyone out there with his sort of vision, just like there was no one like Gates at the time (sorry Jobs...you weren't quite there yet). With those beliefs, it's easy to see why we'd lose confidence in the company once he was gone. It's not really possible for him to leave 5, 10, 15 years worth of ideas and direction behind, so logic tells us his existing vision would be gone rather quickly. The question then becomes, does one have the same faith in someone else as they would in Jobs. Personally, I don't. So I created a plan to get rid of most of my stock by the 24 month mark after Jobs passing. Apple will be fine without him, but I am certain they will not be as successful. They'll come back to the herd. That's my prediction anyway. If I'm wrong, so be it. I'm fine with the 100000000000000% return on my investment from 97/98.

 

[Todem]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand what is happening to aapl.

The stock has been a safe haven equity for many investors for quite some time now, which created a bubble within its stock price.

As investors become more willing to take more risk because they believe the economy has turned the corner and is improving, they are exiting their safe haven positions (such as aapl) so they can move those funds into risker investments that they believe are undervalued.

This is why appl is going down (and probaably will continue to go down) while the rest of the market goes up.

It will be a while before the price of aapl is reconnected to the fundamentals of its business. Its price will bounce around like the price of gold and silver until it has lost its safe haven investment status.

If you own aapl with the intention to hold on to it for the long term, then just ignore all this noise. Otherwise, aaple is only appealing to swing traders in the short term.

Exactly. And if you don't own Apple. This is a great chance to get in cheap. I mean dirt cheap based on everything they have done...and will continue to do.There is zero confidence they will continue to be leader....all that noise is creating a golden opportunity for a smart long term investor who can recognize a serious value stock now....that has plenty of good growth left in it's runway.

If you do not believe in Apple...stay far away. It's all about belief in the products, the ability to continue to innovate etc. When (I have full belief this will happen again) they come out with more game changing devices this stock will have a great run again. Meantime I am sitting back, collecting the ever growing dividend and being patient. Have I taken profit? Oh of course how could you not. But I still have a good 5% holding in my portfolio of this stock. I would never let anyone hold more than 10% of a single position in any portfolio I manage. If they insist. It is at their discretion.....not mine.

Strong buy.

 

[The Commish]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand what is happening to aapl.

The stock has been a safe haven equity for many investors for quite some time now, which created a bubble within its stock price.

As investors become more willing to take more risk because they believe the economy has turned the corner and is improving, they are exiting their safe haven positions (such as aapl) so they can move those funds into risker investments that they believe are undervalued.

This is why appl is going down (and probaably will continue to go down) while the rest of the market goes up.

It will be a while before the price of aapl is reconnected to the fundamentals of its business. Its price will bounce around like the price of gold and silver until it has lost its safe haven investment status.

If you own aapl with the intention to hold on to it for the long term, then just ignore all this noise. Otherwise, aaple is only appealing to swing traders in the short term.

Exactly. And if you don't own Apple. This is a great chance to get in cheap. I mean dirt cheap based on everything they have done...and will continue to do.There is zero confidence they will continue to be leader....all that noise is creating a golden opportunity for a smart long term investor who can recognize a serious value stock now....that has plenty of good growth left in it's runway.

If you do not believe in Apple...stay far away. It's all about belief in the products, the ability to continue to innovate etc. When (I have full belief this will happen again) they come out with more game changing devices this stock will have a great run again. Meantime I am sitting back, collecting the ever growing dividend and being patient. Have I taken profit? Oh of course how could you not. But I still have a good 5% holding in my portfolio of this stock. I would never let anyone hold more than 10% of a single position in any portfolio I manage. If they insist. It is at their discretion.....not mine.

Strong buy.

Curious....when did you get in on AAPL??

 

[humpback]

Exactly. And if you don't own Apple. This is a great chance to get in cheap. I mean dirt cheap based on everything they have done...and will continue to do.

There is zero confidence they will continue to be leader....all that noise is creating a golden opportunity for a smart long term investor who can recognize a serious value stock now....that has plenty of good growth left in it's runway.

If you do not believe in Apple...stay far away. It's all about belief in the products, the ability to continue to innovate etc. When (I have full belief this will happen again) they come out with more game changing devices this stock will have a great run again. Meantime I am sitting back, collecting the ever growing dividend and being patient. Have I taken profit? Oh of course how could you not. But I still have a good 5% holding in my portfolio of this stock. I would never let anyone hold more than 10% of a single position in any portfolio I manage. If they insist. It is at their discretion.....not mine.

Strong buy.

Sorry, I have to at the bolded. The dividends reduce the share price by the same amount, and it lost more than the entire annual dividend just today.

 

[Sand]

This isn't about the financials IMO. It's about the confidence factor. I mentioned several pages ago about the shift from data driven value to confidence driven value that the market is undergoing. Back in the day, stock prices were driven by the financial statements of a company. That's becoming less and less true as people treat the stock market more and more like a gambling outlet. The onslaught of day traders has had a substantial impact on how the market now works. Ask Wachovia. They were a perfectly fine company by financial statement standards, but people "knew" they had some bad assets in their mortgage sector. The confidence in the company dropped (while the financials really hadn't changed at all) and they were consumed....at an ENORMOUS steal I might add.

Graham's comments about voting machine/weighing machine are never more true than now. Apple is not different. There is no paradigm shift in company evaluations. More volatility maybe, but in the end the weighing machine will win out.At a P/E of 10 the market is currently valuing Apple as a company with virtually no growth potential.

 

[Sand]

Sorry, I have to at the bolded. The dividends reduce the share price by the same amount, and it lost more than the entire annual dividend just today.

Sigh.

 

[humpback]

Sorry, I have to at the bolded. The dividends reduce the share price by the same amount, and it lost more than the entire annual dividend just today.

Sigh.

Please explain.

 

[hxperson]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand what is happening to aapl.The stock has been a safe haven equity for many investors for quite some time now, which created a bubble within its stock price.As investors become more willing to take more risk because they believe the economy has turned the corner and is improving, they are exiting their safe haven positions (such as aapl) so they can move those funds into risker investments that they believe are undervalued. This is why appl is going down (and probaably will continue to go down) while the rest of the market goes up. It will be a while before the price of aapl is reconnected to the fundamentals of its business. Its price will bounce around like the price of gold and silver until it has lost its safe haven investment status. If you own aapl with the intention to hold on to it for the long term, then just ignore all this noise. Otherwise, aaple is only appealing to swing traders in the short term.

Not seeing this "safe haven" thing at all.

That's easy to explain. Around a year ago, when global growth was looking difficult, investors everywhere were looking for companies to invest in that had a strong probability of growing no matter what was happening to the global economy. Apple was an obvious choice for any investors looking for these parameters. Now, as global growth is becoming more ubiquitous, while Apple is simultaneously facing questions marks around their growth potential, margin sustainability, and the commoditization of the smart phone category as a whole, we may be seeing an unwinding of that trade.

 

[humpback]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand what is happening to aapl.

The stock has been a safe haven equity for many investors for quite some time now, which created a bubble within its stock price.

As investors become more willing to take more risk because they believe the economy has turned the corner and is improving, they are exiting their safe haven positions (such as aapl) so they can move those funds into risker investments that they believe are undervalued.

This is why appl is going down (and probaably will continue to go down) while the rest of the market goes up.

It will be a while before the price of aapl is reconnected to the fundamentals of its business. Its price will bounce around like the price of gold and silver until it has lost its safe haven investment status.

If you own aapl with the intention to hold on to it for the long term, then just ignore all this noise. Otherwise, aaple is only appealing to swing traders in the short term.

Not seeing this "safe haven" thing at all.

That's easy to explain. Around a year ago, when global growth was looking difficult, investors everywhere were looking for companies to invest in that had a strong probability of growing no matter what was happening to the global economy. Apple was an obvious choice for any investors looking for these parameters. Now, as global growth is becoming more ubiquitous, while Apple is simultaneously facing questions marks around their growth potential, margin sustainability, and the commoditization of the smart phone category as a whole, we may be seeing an unwinding of that trade.

I think this sell off is much more about the bolded than it is some unwinding of a "safe haven" trade. What other safe haven investments have dropped 35-40% in the past 4 months or so?Seems like some people don't want to admit that there are very legitimate questions facing the company.

 

[hxperson]

The unwinding of safe havens is happening everywhere right now. Did you not hear what George Soros and Ray Dalio have been saying at Davos over the last two days. Apple's move has been pretty extreme but that because equities are more volatile than most other asset classes. Just look at eur/chf over the last week, the sell off in the US 30 yr, the pounding the Yen has taken, and UK inflation breakevens earlier this month. We are still in the early stages of this move but it is rapidly gaining steam.

 

[humpback]

The unwinding of safe havens is happening everywhere right now. Did you not hear what George Soros and Ray Dalio have been saying at Davos over the last two days. Apple's move has been pretty extreme but that because equities are more volatile than most other asset classes. Just look at eur/chf over the last week, the sell off in the US 30 yr, the pounding the Yen has taken, and UK inflation breakevens earlier this month. We are still in the early stages of this move but it is rapidly gaining steam.

So the answer is "none"?Sorry, not buying that the main reason people were buying Apple was as a safe haven play, nor am I buying that the main reason it's selling off is because it's been unwinding. It's much more about the company IMO.

 

[hxperson]

The unwinding of safe havens is happening everywhere right now. Did you not hear what George Soros and Ray Dalio have been saying at Davos over the last two days. Apple's move has been pretty extreme but that because equities are more volatile than most other asset classes. Just look at eur/chf over the last week, the sell off in the US 30 yr, the pounding the Yen has taken, and UK inflation breakevens earlier this month. We are still in the early stages of this move but it is rapidly gaining steam.

So the answer is "none"?Sorry, not buying that the main reason people were buying Apple was as a safe haven play, nor am I buying that the main reason it's selling off is because it's been unwinding. It's much more about the company IMO.

I don't disagree with you. I'm just saying there is absolutely a sell off in safe haven assets right now and that is contributing to Apple's sell off. Its far from the only factor, as I said in my previous post

 

[17seconds]

I'm not an AAPL hater as I have a decent amount in these guys, but where are we in relation to this?ETA: credit to siff for giving me that pic.

Man, this chart is nailing the story that is AAPL.

I've seen that chart before but not with that much annotation. Great chart.

 

[Todem]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand what is happening to aapl.

The stock has been a safe haven equity for many investors for quite some time now, which created a bubble within its stock price.

As investors become more willing to take more risk because they believe the economy has turned the corner and is improving, they are exiting their safe haven positions (such as aapl) so they can move those funds into risker investments that they believe are undervalued.

This is why appl is going down (and probaably will continue to go down) while the rest of the market goes up.

It will be a while before the price of aapl is reconnected to the fundamentals of its business. Its price will bounce around like the price of gold and silver until it has lost its safe haven investment status.

If you own aapl with the intention to hold on to it for the long term, then just ignore all this noise. Otherwise, aaple is only appealing to swing traders in the short term.

Exactly. And if you don't own Apple. This is a great chance to get in cheap. I mean dirt cheap based on everything they have done...and will continue to do.There is zero confidence they will continue to be leader....all that noise is creating a golden opportunity for a smart long term investor who can recognize a serious value stock now....that has plenty of good growth left in it's runway.

If you do not believe in Apple...stay far away. It's all about belief in the products, the ability to continue to innovate etc. When (I have full belief this will happen again) they come out with more game changing devices this stock will have a great run again. Meantime I am sitting back, collecting the ever growing dividend and being patient. Have I taken profit? Oh of course how could you not. But I still have a good 5% holding in my portfolio of this stock. I would never let anyone hold more than 10% of a single position in any portfolio I manage. If they insist. It is at their discretion.....not mine.

Strong buy.

Curious....when did you get in on AAPL??

My average price is 223.

 

[Todem]

Exactly. And if you don't own Apple. This is a great chance to get in cheap. I mean dirt cheap based on everything they have done...and will continue to do.

There is zero confidence they will continue to be leader....all that noise is creating a golden opportunity for a smart long term investor who can recognize a serious value stock now....that has plenty of good growth left in it's runway.

If you do not believe in Apple...stay far away. It's all about belief in the products, the ability to continue to innovate etc. When (I have full belief this will happen again) they come out with more game changing devices this stock will have a great run again. Meantime I am sitting back, collecting the ever growing dividend and being patient. Have I taken profit? Oh of course how could you not. But I still have a good 5% holding in my portfolio of this stock. I would never let anyone hold more than 10% of a single position in any portfolio I manage. If they insist. It is at their discretion.....not mine.

Strong buy.

Sorry, I have to at the bolded. The dividends reduce the share price by the same amount, and it lost more than the entire annual dividend just today.

Well let's see.....it's a dividend that is growing, a company that I plan on owning for far longer than one day...mmmmm let me see. Yeah. Ok.If you think this stock will never go back up...sure. Go ahead and LOL. But I do not have that line of thinking on Apple.

I was buying stocks buy the buckets back in March of 2009, 2001, 2002, 1990, 1998 I can go on and on.

ASH at 9 bucks a share. Go check it's price today (sold it in the high 70's as the multiple has gotten out of hand)

Dow at 6 bucks a share.

CAT at 34 bucks

BA at 33 bucks

MO 18 bucks

NEM 12 bucks

MCD 20 bucks

Shall I continue???

Been at this since 1987.

I have seen it all. And by that I have seen massive corrections, fear, the end of the world...6 times.

When everyone is running to the exits.....I am running in.

Have have missed on some companies? Absolutely. But most times with due diligence and good research....well let's just say I am pretty good at this thing called......

Investing and more importantly risk management.

 

[humpback]

Exactly. And if you don't own Apple. This is a great chance to get in cheap. I mean dirt cheap based on everything they have done...and will continue to do.

There is zero confidence they will continue to be leader....all that noise is creating a golden opportunity for a smart long term investor who can recognize a serious value stock now....that has plenty of good growth left in it's runway.

If you do not believe in Apple...stay far away. It's all about belief in the products, the ability to continue to innovate etc. When (I have full belief this will happen again) they come out with more game changing devices this stock will have a great run again. Meantime I am sitting back, collecting the ever growing dividend and being patient. Have I taken profit? Oh of course how could you not. But I still have a good 5% holding in my portfolio of this stock. I would never let anyone hold more than 10% of a single position in any portfolio I manage. If they insist. It is at their discretion.....not mine.

Strong buy.

Sorry, I have to at the bolded. The dividends reduce the share price by the same amount, and it lost more than the entire annual dividend just today.

Well let's see.....it's a dividend that is growing, a company that I plan on owning for far longer than one day...mmmmm let me see. Yeah. Ok.If you think this stock will never go back up...sure. Go ahead and LOL. But I do not have that line of thinking on Apple.

I was buying stocks buy the buckets back in March of 2009, 2001, 2002, 1990, 1998 I can go on and on.

ASH at 9 bucks a share. Go check it's price today (sold it in the high 70's as the multiple has gotten out of hand)

Dow at 6 bucks a share.

CAT at 34 bucks

BA at 33 bucks

MO 18 bucks

NEM 12 bucks

MCD 20 bucks

Shall I continue???

Been at this since 1987.

I have seen it all. And by that I have seen massive corrections, fear, the end of the world...6 times.

When everyone is running to the exits.....I am running in.

Have have missed on some companies? Absolutely. But most times with due diligence and good research....well let's just say I am pretty good at this thing called......

Investing and more importantly risk management.

What's strange is that I normally agree with and enjoy your posts, and it seems like you know what you're doing. I have been at this a long time and have done very well myself, so you can put it back in your pants. I'm just trying to point out how insanely biased you are with this particular stock.So when clients call you up asking what to do about Apple, you tell them to "sit back and collect the dividend"? Do any of them point out how paying dividends also reduces the share price by the same amount, and how they've probably lost the next two decades worth of dividends in the last few months? I'm not dismissing dividends, but it's a pretty minor piece of the puzzle for Apple, especially in light of recent events- the stock has dropped over 250 pts. in the last few months, while collecting $2.65 in dividends.

A month and a half ago when the stock was 100 points higher, you said people were "nuts" if they weren't buying at those levels, and that it had 50-70% upside from there over the next 12-18 months. A while later you said it had 25-30% upside, and that was about 60 points ago. You thought it would get a huge pop after earnings, but the opposite happened. You've talked about fundamentals, but at the same time talk about a stock split, which has nothing to do with the fundamentals. You brushed off the selling as tax driven, yet it continues. Your posts read more like they're coming from a fanboy on the yahoo message boards trying to pump up the stock than from a level-headed money manager, and I know that isn't the case.

For the record, I own some AAPL and will buy more at lower prices. It's a solid company and I think it still has a pretty bright future ahead. However, I'm not so blind to think "there's nothing not to like" about them, as you said. There's plenty not to like right now, and people way smarter and more successful than you and I can see that. I'm just trying to get you to see how emotional you are about this, which you realize is a big no-no.

 

[Mario Kart]

I was thinking of buying some stocks but stocks that focused only on dividends. Stable stocks that pay dividends. I don't have much money however the money I can put towards this stuff is money I don't need right now.I figured I would go this route instead of a mutual fund or Roth IRA route. Good news with this line of thinking or stay away?Been thinking about AT&T, Aflac and Walgreens to start with maybe another energy stock for safety. Is this a good way to go or something I should avoid?Also, if Apple gets lower, I would dip my toe in it but it would need to be ~$350 before I start thinking about that.

 

[The Commish]

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand what is happening to aapl.

The stock has been a safe haven equity for many investors for quite some time now, which created a bubble within its stock price.

As investors become more willing to take more risk because they believe the economy has turned the corner and is improving, they are exiting their safe haven positions (such as aapl) so they can move those funds into risker investments that they believe are undervalued.

This is why appl is going down (and probaably will continue to go down) while the rest of the market goes up.

It will be a while before the price of aapl is reconnected to the fundamentals of its business. Its price will bounce around like the price of gold and silver until it has lost its safe haven investment status.

If you own aapl with the intention to hold on to it for the long term, then just ignore all this noise. Otherwise, aaple is only appealing to swing traders in the short term.

Exactly. And if you don't own Apple. This is a great chance to get in cheap. I mean dirt cheap based on everything they have done...and will continue to do.There is zero confidence they will continue to be leader....all that noise is creating a golden opportunity for a smart long term investor who can recognize a serious value stock now....that has plenty of good growth left in it's runway.

If you do not believe in Apple...stay far away. It's all about belief in the products, the ability to continue to innovate etc. When (I have full belief this will happen again) they come out with more game changing devices this stock will have a great run again. Meantime I am sitting back, collecting the ever growing dividend and being patient. Have I taken profit? Oh of course how could you not. But I still have a good 5% holding in my portfolio of this stock. I would never let anyone hold more than 10% of a single position in any portfolio I manage. If they insist. It is at their discretion.....not mine.

Strong buy.

Curious....when did you get in on AAPL??

My average price is 223.

This explains a lot to me then...thanks.

 

[Sand]

This explains a lot to me then...thanks.

Why does it matter? It is sunk money.

 

[culdeus]

Reading technical peeps it seems 420 is the next key support, then it will test 350. People are still coming in short on this and margin calls on longs won't start hitting for a few more days. That slow bleed late this week is all sorts of trouble.

 

[Todem]

Exactly. And if you don't own Apple. This is a great chance to get in cheap. I mean dirt cheap based on everything they have done...and will continue to do.

There is zero confidence they will continue to be leader....all that noise is creating a golden opportunity for a smart long term investor who can recognize a serious value stock now....that has plenty of good growth left in it's runway.

If you do not believe in Apple...stay far away. It's all about belief in the products, the ability to continue to innovate etc. When (I have full belief this will happen again) they come out with more game changing devices this stock will have a great run again. Meantime I am sitting back, collecting the ever growing dividend and being patient. Have I taken profit? Oh of course how could you not. But I still have a good 5% holding in my portfolio of this stock. I would never let anyone hold more than 10% of a single position in any portfolio I manage. If they insist. It is at their discretion.....not mine.

Strong buy.

Sorry, I have to at the bolded. The dividends reduce the share price by the same amount, and it lost more than the entire annual dividend just today.

Well let's see.....it's a dividend that is growing, a company that I plan on owning for far longer than one day...mmmmm let me see. Yeah. Ok.If you think this stock will never go back up...sure. Go ahead and LOL. But I do not have that line of thinking on Apple.

I was buying stocks buy the buckets back in March of 2009, 2001, 2002, 1990, 1998 I can go on and on.

ASH at 9 bucks a share. Go check it's price today (sold it in the high 70's as the multiple has gotten out of hand)

Dow at 6 bucks a share.

CAT at 34 bucks

BA at 33 bucks

MO 18 bucks

NEM 12 bucks

MCD 20 bucks

Shall I continue???

Been at this since 1987.

I have seen it all. And by that I have seen massive corrections, fear, the end of the world...6 times.

When everyone is running to the exits.....I am running in.

Have have missed on some companies? Absolutely. But most times with due diligence and good research....well let's just say I am pretty good at this thing called......

Investing and more importantly risk management.

What's strange is that I normally agree with and enjoy your posts, and it seems like you know what you're doing. I have been at this a long time and have done very well myself, so you can put it back in your pants. I'm just trying to point out how insanely biased you are with this particular stock.So when clients call you up asking what to do about Apple, you tell them to "sit back and collect the dividend"? Do any of them point out how paying dividends also reduces the share price by the same amount, and how they've probably lost the next two decades worth of dividends in the last few months? I'm not dismissing dividends, but it's a pretty minor piece of the puzzle for Apple, especially in light of recent events- the stock has dropped over 250 pts. in the last few months, while collecting $2.65 in dividends.

A month and a half ago when the stock was 100 points higher, you said people were "nuts" if they weren't buying at those levels, and that it had 50-70% upside from there over the next 12-18 months. A while later you said it had 25-30% upside, and that was about 60 points ago. You thought it would get a huge pop after earnings, but the opposite happened. You've talked about fundamentals, but at the same time talk about a stock split, which has nothing to do with the fundamentals. You brushed off the selling as tax driven, yet it continues. Your posts read more like they're coming from a fanboy on the yahoo message boards trying to pump up the stock than from a level-headed money manager, and I know that isn't the case.

For the record, I own some AAPL and will buy more at lower prices. It's a solid company and I think it still has a pretty bright future ahead. However, I'm not so blind to think "there's nothing not to like" about them, as you said. There's plenty not to like right now, and people way smarter and more successful than you and I can see that. I'm just trying to get you to see how emotional you are about this, which you realize is a big no-no.

You make some great points. So far in this correction of this particular stock I have had it wrong. Clearly.My point on the dividend is I fully do not expect Apple to remain at these levels too long. And predicting a bottom on a stock is never easy.

I am an "A" personality so sometimes on a message board I can come off....a little hot headed. I don't mean to though.

I have been telling my clients to hold. As we had already taken some good profits already back in the mid 600's. We also bought more in the 515ish-525ish range and right now it looks like we went in too early.

The earnings were quite impressive so I am a contrarian in that regard. The expectations are being reset. And long term what is happening right now to the stock and all these analysts cutting and cutting every two weeks....will help this stock long term when they keep performing well. They had a record quarter and have been destroyed. There is a clear disconnect right now with how well they are doing and confidence in the company.

That happens with stocks. The stock is broken right now. The company is not. IMO.

As far as being emotional about the stock? No I never get emotional about stocks. And If I am coming off as a fanboi. Well....misunderstanding. I am not an Apple apologist.

In due time over the course of the next 12-18 months I truly believe this stock will bounce back in a big way. A stock spilt is certainly in the cards as well and would only help the stock get many new buyers who are too afraid of high priced stocks (it could come this year, next year who knows). Fundamental? No, but investor sentiment is a powerful thing and a split can act as one catalyst( it will need others of course) and the fundamentals will take over again long term.

Also Apple could do some buybacks which have helped companies in the past and give some fire to push the stock higher on top of good earnings and fundamentals.

There are so many bears on Apple now. Amazing after they had their best quarter ever as a company. Hyper growth? No but solid growth for sure.

Anyway there are so many other companies other than Apple.

And being down 12-15% on a company like this is (short term) not the end of the world (for those that bought in the 515-520 range) when you have a stock that has a growing dividend, still 25% plus annual growth, oodles of cash, great products, ecosystem and I have to believe a robust pipeline in development.

Anyway sorry for coming of like an ### in my previous post. I did not intend that. And keeping my clients cool and calm when a stock is getting hammered is 98% of my job. And like I said....I am not always right. But fortunately I have been most of the time. It's why I do this, otherwise I would have to get another line of work.

Apple is only one of many great companies out there. And again....never more than 5% of a portfolio (10% for the most aggressive investors)

And I may have this totally wrong. Time will tell. And time is what I give good companies.

 

[The Commish]

This explains a lot to me then...thanks.

Why does it matter? It is sunk money.

When someone has a stock valued at $300 a share and they pay $200 a share for it...they "need" the outlook to be better than a person who has the same share but bought it at $25. Folks who are already making a butt load tend to look at things more objectively in my experience. Those not making a lot or losing tend to get REALLY optimistic about the future and base it on some pretty shaky evidence.

 

[Politician Spock]

There is no other tech stock to compare it to that is a fair comparison. It's cool for the masses to love Apple. It's not cool to love other tech companies, despite how many geeks have "I (heart) VMWARE" bumper stickers in their cubicles.

Oof! VMWare taking an even bigger pounding than Apple. When people begin to love a technology, it's like a kiss of death for the future of that company.

 

[hxperson]

Strategy Analytics: Android claimed 70 percent of world smartphone share in Q4 2012

Strategy Analytics: Android claimed 70 percent of world smartphone share in Q4 2012 Maybe it's easier being green than we thought. We suspected Android would do well in smartphone market share when Strategy Analytics had Samsung surging ahead in the fourth quarter of 2012, but the firm's newer breakdown of estimated share by OS shows an even larger jump for Google's overall platform -- from 51.3 percent in fall 2011 to 70.1 percent one year later. Apple was knocked down slightly to 22 percent, although it's mostly other platforms that took the bruising. Collectively, BlackBerry, Symbian, Windows Phone and other platforms sank from 25.1 percent of the smartphone space in late 2011 to just 7.9 points as 2012 drew to a close. When just two companies' platforms make up 92 percent of smartphones, it's safe to call the result a duopoly, like Strategy Analytics does -- even if others aren't so content with the idea.

 

[SacramentoBob]

There is no other tech stock to compare it to that is a fair comparison. It's cool for the masses to love Apple. It's not cool to love other tech companies, despite how many geeks have "I (heart) VMWARE" bumper stickers in their cubicles.

Oof! VMWare taking an even bigger pounding than Apple. When people begin to love a technology, it's like a kiss of death for the future of that company.

They should start seeing a ton of competition from Microsoft and KVM in the coming years.

 

[SacramentoBob]

Strategy Analytics: Android claimed 70 percent of world smartphone share in Q4 2012

Strategy Analytics: Android claimed 70 percent of world smartphone share in Q4 2012 Maybe it's easier being green than we thought. We suspected Android would do well in smartphone market share when Strategy Analytics had Samsung surging ahead in the fourth quarter of 2012, but the firm's newer breakdown of estimated share by OS shows an even larger jump for Google's overall platform -- from 51.3 percent in fall 2011 to 70.1 percent one year later. Apple was knocked down slightly to 22 percent, although it's mostly other platforms that took the bruising. Collectively, BlackBerry, Symbian, Windows Phone and other platforms sank from 25.1 percent of the smartphone space in late 2011 to just 7.9 points as 2012 drew to a close. When just two companies' platforms make up 92 percent of smartphones, it's safe to call the result a duopoly, like Strategy Analytics does -- even if others aren't so content with the idea.

You forgot to say "FACTS ARE FACTS".