Are certain players worth an overpay? (1 Viewer)

[Zyphros]

So me and a leaguemate were having a discussion about if players deserve an overpay. It came down to a conversation of him getting Antonio Brown from me and me offering to take Watkins/Keenan Allen. He says that Antonio (or anyone) isn't worth an overpay because it's essentially losing value, however I disagree saying you're paying for a top WR (if not the best WR) it requires you to overpay because they are so valuable.

It came down to a business analogy of if you walk into a meeting and say "I will buy your company but only for fair market value" what incentive do you actually have to take a "fair market" offer? I say none. The only caveat I can think of is when a team/business whatever analogy you want to use, is in desperation to gain the value. That is not the case with my team so I am not desperate to get value for AB and in turn, no reason for me to sell unless I get that overpay.

The question became, are the elite of the elite players worth an overpay? I say yes, what say you?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

"Worth overpaying" is an oxymoron. If a player is worth what you pay for him, you're not overpaying.

Unless I'm misunderstanding the question...

 

[Chapelboy]

If he helps you win the title, would you say you overpaid? results after the trade need to be factored in.

 

[starks]

I dropped 81% of FAAB on Chark West when Charles went down. At first I like "uuugh" now I'm like mmmmmmmmmmmm...

 

[Sabertooth]

That's a steal for Antonio.

 

[jmo87usc]

"Worth overpaying" is an oxymoron. If a player is worth what you pay for him, you're not overpaying.

Unless I'm misunderstanding the question...

Brain. Exploded.

But I get what the OP meant. Overpay in terms of general consensus thinking. But to answer the original question. Yes, it is worth an "overpay" to get the guy you want or the result you desire. I have overpaid in the eyes of my league mates many times. They tend to analyze deals in a vacuum rather than considering all of the factors.

 

[Topes]

Don't trade Antonio Brown.

He is fast and good and scores lots of points.

 

[Dezbelief]

No way I trade AB for Watkins/Allen, that's selling low. Anyone trying to give you even less is wanting to steal you blind.

 

[Dezbelief]

I will pay up for elite players.

 

[Gottabesweet]

What about using elite players to acquire elite.

AJ Green and Jeffrey or 1sts for OBJ

 

[bostonfred]

Every commodity had two prices, a buying price and a selling price. If you're asking someone for a trade, you're probably going to have to pay their selling price. If they ask you for a trade, they'll usually try to offer you their buying price.

In general, if you never pay more than the buying price for a player, you'll win more of your trades than you'll lose. If you always pay the full selling price, you'll lose more than you win.

You should still pay more than the buying price sometimes. There's a few good reasons.

Getting a player who fits your team needs. This use the obvious one. If you're strong at wr and need a rb, you might overpay to fill a positional need.

Having a good reputation as someone who is easy to trade with may open up opportunities in the future where a trading partner accepts much less than full value. A lot of people don't even approach the guy who has to win every trade.

Paying too much production for upside. This depends on the scope of the transaction. In dynasty, rebuilding teams usually sell veterans for rookies and draft picks. In redraft, trading one stud for two or three guys with upside may net you several good starters that can save your season. In redraft, courting that uncertainty has low downside - you pay their every fee, lose it and then start over next year. If you go down, go down in flames. In dynasty, the consequences of those trades are longer reaching.

Or you can do what you're talking about. Pay too much upside for production. Consolidating two talented receivers for one better one sounds great, but it's often overrated. Everyone wants the number one guy, but having a bunch of very good guys is usually better. When you put all your eggs in one basket, lots of things can go wrong. Brown could get hurt. Big Ben could get hurt. Bryant could start to cut into his production. Look what happened to aj green - hardly terrible, but nowhere near his elite pace. When you spread your cake across multiple players, you increase your chances of getting the break out star. Ask owners of Allen Robinson, DeAndre Hopkins, and until the injury, Keenan Allen if they would rather have had their guy and another good guy, or one elite guy like Calvin Johnson or Demaryius Thomas.

The fair market price for elite players is almost always an overpay, because of scarcity. If you want a top 5 receiver, there are only 5 of them to go after (and there's probably ten guys so think their guy is really top five). In almost all of those deals, the guy getting two players gets more value. But the guy getting the better player often wins.

Why? Because they have the depth to make the move. You can trade two 20 point players for a 30 point player if you have a 15 point player on your bench. In a vacuum, trade value is based on value over baseline, but the baseline for your team shouldn't be zero, or "worst starter". It should be the player you'll backfill the position with, either on your team or with subsequent trades.

Bottom line - If a deal makes your team better, it isn't an overpay unless you could get another deal that makes it even betterer.

 

[Sabertooth]

I agree. Antonio isn't just elite, he's otherworldly. In terms of wideouts, right now I'd say he's worth Mike Evans+AJ Green or something like that.

 

[Pipes]

Hell yes it's worth overpaying for guys at times. While you don't want to make a habit of it some guys like Anotonio are worth every penny.

 

[Jack White]

Right now, I'm trying to overpay for ARob.

I have extra depth, while he's thin at a couple positions.

I'm willing to overpay because it's a win-win.

 

[sbonomo]

I dropped 81% of FAAB on Chark West when Charles went down. At first I like "uuugh" now I'm like mmmmmmmmmmmm...

90% for me (i had andersen so needed major help). I dont think i over paid.

 

[msudaisy26]

Some people look at it as overpaying, but I like to look at it as freeing up a roster spot or 2. Gives me space to grab guys with upside and try to trade them if they hit.

 

[DropKick]

So me and a leaguemate were having a discussion about if players deserve an overpay. It came down to a conversation of him getting Antonio Brown from me and me offering to take Watkins/Keenan Allen. He says that Antonio (or anyone) isn't worth an overpay because it's essentially losing value, however I disagree saying you're paying for a top WR (if not the best WR) it requires you to overpay because they are so valuable.

It came down to a business analogy of if you walk into a meeting and say "I will buy your company but only for fair market value" what incentive do you actually have to take a "fair market" offer? I say none. The only caveat I can think of is when a team/business whatever analogy you want to use, is in desperation to gain the value. That is not the case with my team so I am not desperate to get value for AB and in turn, no reason for me to sell unless I get that overpay.

The question became, are the elite of the elite players worth an overpay? I say yes, what say you?

Yes, I will overpay, or at least, pay more than market value (which is based on general perception). I may believe the real value is substantially higher.

Watkins/Allen isn't overpaying... I'd expect more for Brown.

 

[Zyphros]

The debate with me and my leaguemate just isn't going away no matter the help / contradictions in this very thread. I guess it just comes down to the philosophy you use when it comes down to trading. If you view it as 1 set value for every player, and you either pay above, below, or exactly that value. Or you call it an "overpay" just based on the market of what others might pay. No right answer it seems, just different strategies, terminology, and philosophies to how to manage your trades.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Right now, I'm trying to overpay for ARob.

I have extra depth, while he's thin at a couple positions.

I'm willing to overpay because it's a win-win.

You actually get a double win if the guy knows you are willing to help him out above-and-beyond what his value is.

People remember this stuff (including when you treat them extra well) and it keeps the trade lanes open in the future.

 

[ghostguy123]

The debate with me and my leaguemate just isn't going away no matter the help / contradictions in this very thread. I guess it just comes down to the philosophy you use when it comes down to trading. If you view it as 1 set value for every player, and you either pay above, below, or exactly that value. Or you call it an "overpay" just based on the market of what others might pay. No right answer it seems, just different strategies, terminology, and philosophies to how to manage your trades.

Well for one, don't tell him he has to overpay, tell him he has to pay what Brown is worth and that you are not going to sell him for less than he is worth.

Nobody wants to overpay, and many people simply need is phrased better for them. Kinda like the big bold shiny "for sale" signs in stores. The #### isn't really on sale.

 

[Shrugs]

There is certainly such a thing as overpaying that makes sense if you have high level depth and another team has one top player but lacks elsewhere. I tried to overpay in redraft with Megatron plus Marshall for AB to a team that is 5-5 and facing a 7-3 team this week with AB on bye. That's the kind of overpay that works for both teams, as one of Mega/Marshall is on my bench while both would start for him. Of course, he still turned it down out of pure stubbornness. He hasn't made a trade all season.

 

[ghostguy123]

There is certainly such a thing as overpaying that makes sense if you have high level depth and another team has one top player but lacks elsewhere. I tried to overpay in redraft with Megatron plus Marshall for AB to a team that is 5-5 and facing a 7-3 team this week with AB on bye. That's the kind of overpay that works for both teams, as one of Mega/Marshall is on my bench while both would start for him. Of course, he still turned it down out of pure stubbornness. He hasn't made a trade all season.

I am not so sure that Brown and some so-so waiver guy isn't better than Calvin/Marshall in a lineup.

 

[DropKick]

There is certainly such a thing as overpaying that makes sense if you have high level depth and another team has one top player but lacks elsewhere. I tried to overpay in redraft with Megatron plus Marshall for AB to a team that is 5-5 and facing a 7-3 team this week with AB on bye. That's the kind of overpay that works for both teams, as one of Mega/Marshall is on my bench while both would start for him. Of course, he still turned it down out of pure stubbornness. He hasn't made a trade all season.

I am not so sure that Brown and some so-so waiver guy isn't better than Calvin/Marshall in a lineup.

Agreed. I would never deal Brown for Megatron/Marshall.. Why would anyone consider that over-payment? He didn't turn it down because he is stubborn - it's not that great of a deal.

Many have lost the concept of a true "stud". Neither Megatron or Marshall are in that category right now.

 

[DropKick]

A lot of bad offers come down to three nickels (or even three dimes) for a quarter. They're just bad offers.

Trades should be a quarter for a quarter - maybe both sides swapping positions of depth for need. I can see dealing a 20 cent piece and a dime (or even two 20 cent pieces) for a quarter - and both sides being happy.

Like MSU said above, I want the elite player and I free a roster spot.

For someone interested in a nice 20 cent piece (Carson City mint no less). Feel free to bid if you have a spare 70 grand or so lying around the house:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/like/361341168461?ul_noapp=true&chn=ps&lpid=82

 

[Topes]

There is certainly such a thing as overpaying that makes sense if you have high level depth and another team has one top player but lacks elsewhere. I tried to overpay in redraft with Megatron plus Marshall for AB to a team that is 5-5 and facing a 7-3 team this week with AB on bye. That's the kind of overpay that works for both teams, as one of Mega/Marshall is on my bench while both would start for him. Of course, he still turned it down out of pure stubbornness. He hasn't made a trade all season.

That's not stubbornness. That's a lousy trade offer he rejected.

 

[bjabrad]

I have to overpay almost every time to motivate the other owner to approve of the trade. The end result is a benefit for me since I've typically got excessive depth in one position over another. I'm overpaying relative to the average value but I don't mind since it's going to help me boost overall points. You can't start everyone on your roster each week and this allows more points to be put in starting positions.

 

[DoubleG]

Interesting. Some of the people posting that "overpaying" is sometimes needed are the same people posting in the "worst Dynasty trade EVER!" thread. Yet in this thread they are taking the opposite side of the discussion. Fascinating.

 

[DropKick]

Interesting. Some of the people posting that "overpaying" is sometimes needed are the same people posting in the "worst Dynasty trade EVER!" thread. Yet in this thread they are taking the opposite side of the discussion. Fascinating.

Overpaying does not equal stupidity.

Plus, that thread is about underpaying...

 

[Biabreakable]

The reason for doing any trade is because the trade somehow benefits both parties.

As it is the goal to win, having top players at their positions is what every owner should be striving towards. For me there are three different tiers of player value:

Core player. These are players you will almost always start and are players who are performing well now and are expected to continue performing well in the future.

Useful players. Players who are performing at a level that is useful enough to start on a good match up but are not players you would start regardless of match up like the core players.

Above replacement level players. These may be handcuffs or players you think will be more useful than another player who is available as a free agent in your league.

I don't think anyone should trade a core player without getting a core player in return. You do not want to give up players who are obvious starters for a bunch of match up players. The only scenario I see where a owner should consider trading a core player for non core players is if the league is a dynasty and that core player is the only valuable asset. Even then I would be reluctant to give up a core player without getting at least one other core player in return.

Trading Antonio Brown for AJ Green, Stefon Diggs and a draft pick for example might be something the Brown owner should consider if Brown is the only valuable asset they have. Even then I still might want more to move on from a player who is at the top of their position.

A player like Brown cannot really be matched by one other player. He is the best WR one could own right now so any trade would mean a downgrade from that. What we are comparing is the relative advantage of this top player against a good player but not the best player at their position. So to trade away such a player is reducing your expected performance at that position. You are taking a downgrade. It will require that you can make up those points lost (Brown to Green for example) with the additional value of the other pieces.

You can call this overpaying or whatever you like, but if I am the owner of Brown and the rest of my team is pretty solid. Any trade I consider is going to need to improve my lineup. Trading Brown for a lesser WR does not accomplish that. Trading Brown for Green, Diggs, draft pick(s) does not really improve my line up either, if I already have enough WR to match what Diggs could provide. The price is going to need to be higher than that for me to consider downgrading and making it more difficult for me to win.

A player like Brown or Gurley are close to priceless. There are not many scenarios where one could trade such players away and improve your lineup. Maybe if your team does not have much depth and has poor starters at WR3 or at a flex position, then maybe you could improve your lineup by having better depth. There is no where to go in terms of value once a player is at the top of their position.

Each owners roster will be different. If you really want to persuade the other owner to give up a top player such as Brown you should expect to offer more than equitable value for Brown because the other owner needs incentive to consider taking the downgrade.

 

[Shrugs]

There is certainly such a thing as overpaying that makes sense if you have high level depth and another team has one top player but lacks elsewhere. I tried to overpay in redraft with Megatron plus Marshall for AB to a team that is 5-5 and facing a 7-3 team this week with AB on bye. That's the kind of overpay that works for both teams, as one of Mega/Marshall is on my bench while both would start for him. Of course, he still turned it down out of pure stubbornness. He hasn't made a trade all season.

That's not stubbornness. That's a lousy trade offer he rejected.

None of you are factoring in that you're 5-5 and AB is on bye this week with only two games following in the regular season.

 

[skol asylum]

I tend to overpay alot. If i want a player i do what it takes to get him. In my dynasty i'm constantly mortgaging my future giving away early picks for young players i want. Some have worked. Some haven't. A couple of weeks into the year i traded 2 2016 1st round picks, Crowell, Andre Johnson, and Vernon Davis for Antonio Brown.

 

[Biabreakable]

I tend to overpay alot. If i want a player i do what it takes to get him. In my dynasty i'm constantly mortgaging my future giving away early picks for young players i want. Some have worked. Some haven't. A couple of weeks into the year i traded 2 2016 1st round picks, Crowell, Andre Johnson, and Vernon Davis for Antonio Brown.

Pretty obvious you won that deal. The picks could pan out to be some good players but pretty low odds that either will match Brown in their career.

 

[DropKick]

There is certainly such a thing as overpaying that makes sense if you have high level depth and another team has one top player but lacks elsewhere. I tried to overpay in redraft with Megatron plus Marshall for AB to a team that is 5-5 and facing a 7-3 team this week with AB on bye. That's the kind of overpay that works for both teams, as one of Mega/Marshall is on my bench while both would start for him. Of course, he still turned it down out of pure stubbornness. He hasn't made a trade all season.

That's not stubbornness. That's a lousy trade offer he rejected.

None of you are factoring in that you're 5-5 and AB is on bye this week with only two games following in the regular season.

Yes, we are factoring that in...

 

[DropKick]

I tend to overpay alot. If i want a player i do what it takes to get him. In my dynasty i'm constantly mortgaging my future giving away early picks for young players i want. Some have worked. Some haven't. A couple of weeks into the year i traded 2 2016 1st round picks, Crowell, Andre Johnson, and Vernon Davis for Antonio Brown.

Pretty obvious you won that deal. The picks could pan out to be some good players but pretty low odds that either will match Brown in their career.

Has Crowell had any real value this year?

Has Andre Johnson had any real value this year?

Has Vernon Davis had any value this year?

Two future firsts for Antonio Brown is a steal.

Do you really think you paid too much?

 

[fightingillini]

There is certainly such a thing as overpaying that makes sense if you have high level depth and another team has one top player but lacks elsewhere. I tried to overpay in redraft with Megatron plus Marshall for AB to a team that is 5-5 and facing a 7-3 team this week with AB on bye. That's the kind of overpay that works for both teams, as one of Mega/Marshall is on my bench while both would start for him. Of course, he still turned it down out of pure stubbornness. He hasn't made a trade all season.

That's not stubbornness. That's a lousy trade offer he rejected.

None of you are factoring in that you're 5-5 and AB is on bye this week with only two games following in the regular season.

Sure we are.

I would rather gamble that I can win this week without Brown than to weaken my team going forward.

Face it. It's not that good of an offer.

 

[ghostguy123]

There is certainly such a thing as overpaying that makes sense if you have high level depth and another team has one top player but lacks elsewhere. I tried to overpay in redraft with Megatron plus Marshall for AB to a team that is 5-5 and facing a 7-3 team this week with AB on bye. That's the kind of overpay that works for both teams, as one of Mega/Marshall is on my bench while both would start for him. Of course, he still turned it down out of pure stubbornness. He hasn't made a trade all season.

That's not stubbornness. That's a lousy trade offer he rejected.

None of you are factoring in that you're 5-5 and AB is on bye this week with only two games following in the regular season.

Sure we are.

I would rather gamble that I can win this week without Brown than to weaken my team going forward.

Face it. It's not that good of an offer.

Correct. I was also factoring it in.

If Brown had already had his bye week it would have probably been close to a "bad" offer. In this case the offer made sense, and is not a bad offer.

But there is no way it was an overpayment.

And speaking of overpayment, I think everyone probably has a different picture of what that really is. You can't really use the "4 dimes for a quarter" as an overpayment analogy. Too many other factors.

 

[Sabertooth]

Some people look at it as overpaying, but I like to look at it as freeing up a roster spot or 2. Gives me space to grab guys with upside and try to trade them if they hit.

I agree, especially if you see somebody on the wire that you like. I look at it like maple syrup...you are boiling it down and concentrating it (getting more or same point but using fewer roster spots).

 

[maxhyde]

Yes some guys are worth overpaying for

 

[offdee]

I tend to overpay alot. If i want a player i do what it takes to get him. In my dynasty i'm constantly mortgaging my future giving away early picks for young players i want. Some have worked. Some haven't. A couple of weeks into the year i traded 2 2016 1st round picks, Crowell, Andre Johnson, and Vernon Davis for Antonio Brown.

Pretty obvious you won that deal. The picks could pan out to be some good players but pretty low odds that either will match Brown in their career.

Has Crowell had any real value this year?

Has Andre Johnson had any real value this year?

Has Vernon Davis had any value this year?

Two future firsts for Antonio Brown is a steal.

Do you really think you paid too much?

Week 2 when he made the trade it would've seemed that way. That's the point of this thread...you overpay in the moment hoping for higher returns down the line.

 

[Thunderlips]

As the fantasy season goes on and bye weeks and depth become less of an issue, I'm a big fan of overpaying depth for studs.....kind of like the 5 nickles is worth a quarter idea. To me, it's well worth it.

 

[Ilov80s]

As the fantasy season goes on and bye weeks and depth become less of an issue, I'm a big fan of overpaying depth for studs.....kind of like the 5 nickles is worth a quarter idea. To me, it's well worth it.

Ofcourse. As you near the trade deadline and playoffs, I think owners have to consolidate to try to create the best possible starting lineup.

 

[T J]

"Worth overpaying" is an oxymoron. If a player is worth what you pay for him, you're not overpaying.

Unless I'm misunderstanding the question...

You are.

 

[ghostguy123]

As the fantasy season goes on and bye weeks and depth become less of an issue, I'm a big fan of overpaying depth for studs.....kind of like the 5 nickles is worth a quarter idea. To me, it's well worth it.

This is why this thread isn't going to go anywhere. Nobody has the same definition of "overpaying".

Depth for a stud is overpaying? More like it is a steal

 

[Topes]

As the fantasy season goes on and bye weeks and depth become less of an issue, I'm a big fan of overpaying depth for studs.....kind of like the 5 nickles is worth a quarter idea. To me, it's well worth it.

This is why this thread isn't going to go anywhere. Nobody has the same definition of "overpaying".

Depth for a stud is overpaying? More like it is a steal

Plus, there's the dynamic of what is missing from discussion of any trade where the number of players is different on each side:

1) Who is the player(s) who must be cut from one team to accommodate the trade?

2) What is the threshold of replacement players available to the owner trading more for fewer? (Essentially: How deep is the league?)

Even for season fantasy players, these points are often left out of discussion entirely. At times, it seems as if folks are not even aware these questions exist. I would often gladly be on the receiving end of a 3-for-1 deal if I also got the roster spots. But I do not. So I would have to cut players. I love playing the wire. I would love to trade three dimes for a quarter in any league in the universe. But that deal just doesn't fly.