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Are we headed for a 5-team AFC pile-up at 10-6? (1 Viewer)

The_Man

Footballguy
It probably won’t happen, but it’s also not entirely impossible that the AFC ends up with five teams tied at 10-6, with one of them taking the #2 seed, while another (very surprising) team misses the playoffs entirely. And based on point spreads, it would probably require just 1 or 2 upsets.

Here’s what has to happen:

Baltimore: beat NE, beat Cincy (this might be a slight upset with Cincy favored by 2 or 3 points at home)

Cincy: beat MIN, lose to Balt

New England: lose to Balt, lose to Buff (this Pats home loss would be the only big upset)

Miami: beat Buffalo, beat NYJ

Indy: lose to KC (will KC be favored at Indy?), beat Jacksonville

If this happens, the playoffs look like this:

1. Denver

2. Miami (wins East over NE on Division record), wins #2 seed over Balt and Indy on Conference record

3. Baltimore (wins North based on sweep of Cincy), wins #3 over Indy based on common games

4. Indy

5. KC

6. Cincy (wins Wild Card over NE based on head-to-head)

Would be fascinating if all this plays out, and so New England goes into the Buffalo game needing a win. A win puts them in as the #2 seed at 11-5, while a loss drops them out of the playoffs.

If New England were to win that game, and everything else plays out as above, then Miami takes the #6 seed over Cincy based on head-to-head win, and the Bengals would be out.

 
What is amazing is that if Baltimore, Miami, Cincy all win this week, that sets up a game in wk17 where the winner is the 2 seed and the loser misses the playoffs entirely (unlesss Miami or NE loses then loser would get 6 seed)

 
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What is amazing is that if Baltimore, Miami, Cincy all win this week, that sets up a game in wk17 where the winner is the 2 seed and the loser misses the playoffs entirely (unlesss Miami or NE loses then loser would get 6 seed)
This is right, except the Baltimore-Cincy game is likely for the 3 seed, with the loser out, because you have to assume New England beats Buffalo and gets the #2.

 
KC will be favored, the game is at Arrowhead and I think KC wins without much trouble. Could be close, but with Charles and the D, they should win. I think the NE/Buffalo game is really the only stretch, but it is possible. I just don't think that will happen.

 
What is amazing is that if Baltimore, Miami, Cincy all win this week, that sets up a game in wk17 where the winner is the 2 seed and the loser misses the playoffs entirely (unlesss Miami or NE loses then loser would get 6 seed)
This is right, except the Baltimore-Cincy game is likely for the 3 seed, with the loser out, because you have to assume New England beats Buffalo and gets the #2.
Ya, I guess it's 2 seed for Bengals, but 3 seed for Balt.

 
My guess:

Baltimore beats NE and Cincy

NE beats Buffalo

Miami loses one of their last two, blowing their shot at the playoffs

NE nabs the 2 seed, Baltimore the 3 or 4, and Cincy falls to being just a wild card.

 
0% chance Baltimore beats NE. Zero percent.
Baltimore swept NE last year, beating them at home during the season and on the road in the playoffs.

Ravens are 6-1 at home this year. Patriots have won once on the road since September, beating woeful Houston 34-31. They've lost at Cincy, the Jets, Carolina, and Miami.

 
The_Man said:
cheese said:
What is amazing is that if Baltimore, Miami, Cincy all win this week, that sets up a game in wk17 where the winner is the 2 seed and the loser misses the playoffs entirely (unlesss Miami or NE loses then loser would get 6 seed)
This is right, except the Baltimore-Cincy game is likely for the 3 seed, with the loser out, because you have to assume New England beats Buffalo and gets the #2.
Bengals would be playing for the #2 seed if the premise is that New England loses to Baltimore and the Bengals beat Minnesota.

Almost impossible for the Bengals and Ravens to be playing with the #3 seed specifically on the line for both.

-QG

 

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