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At the Halfway Point... Lessons Learned in Fantasy 2024 (1 Viewer)

Smack Tripper

Footballguy
Maybe a lesson relearned but one it will be hard to forget... don't buy lemons. Don't draft guys who are hurt in camp in the first 5 rounds.

Puka, LaPorta, McCaffery... there may be more, they may slide where it gets convincing but the best ability is availability.

I think I might extend that to not taking guys who held out. Every one of them has not lived up to ADP yet. They may yet but you're probably not succeeding with them currently.
 
Last year was a rash of QB injuries. This year it’s WR. We’re at like 15 start-worthy players that have missed multiple games. And that doesn’t include the indirect impact to Hill/Waddle. Just a wasteland.

Not sure it’s a lesson learned as much as it is an observation, but it’s definitely the biggest pressure point of this years rosters.
 
Keeping track of offensive lines pays off. Unfortunately it's quite difficult to keep up with all the variables and depth.
The Ravens had a terrible offensive line on paper going into this season.

Agreed, and it was terrible to start the season, which contributed to their two losses and Henry's slow start. Once the new group began to gel, however, the team has really taken off.
 
Do not prioritize onesie positions ever again.

A good rushing attack is a respective fantasy defenses best friend

Do not roster players that score only 2-4 tds a year or pacing to do so

Snap rates matter. Usage matters more. Teams executing their plays to perfection with limited snap players matter the most (Derrick Henry)

consider adding points per carry or points per first down in all leagues.

Target quality greatly matters.

Field position greatly matters.
 
I have always adhered to this rule. Draft no earlier than the 10th round. Then adjust when you see who's good in season.
Working for me.

Always a couple of undrafted guys doing more than those we drafted and thought might be good. Dice roll trying to guess who the top guys are anymore, better to just stay out of it and work on the fly.
 
I have always adhered to this rule. Draft no earlier than the 10th round. Then adjust when you see who's good in season.
Working for me.

Always a couple of undrafted guys doing more than those we drafted and thought might be good. Dice roll trying to guess who the top guys are anymore, better to just stay out of it and work on the fly.
Last year if you stayed vigilant you got McBride for the stretch run.

Waiting for this year's guy but I may have lucked into Otton.
 
you said this in ANY other year for the past decade or something, and you'd be dead wrong.
Disagree. It's been rubbish outside the top few guys forever.

Right, but there were always top guys... That doesn't even seem to exist now
Much of the fantasy community has long tried to find the next Travis Kelce, but he may always prove to be an exception to the rule. Gronk was one and Tony Gonzalez probably the other.

It's such a rare combination of factors to find a sustained difference maker at the TE position. You need high end talent, a good-to-great QB, and a pass heavy offense that runs through the TE. Guys like Andrews, LaPorta and McBride have obviously had their moments of outsized production, but often fleeting when the situation around them changes (for example, target competition).

Maybe Bowers could be the next closest to Kelce, but I wouldn't bank on it.
 
I only do Dynasty and this is nothing new...but the more attention you pay to the middle and bottom part of your roster the more depth you will have and the more ability you will have to withstand injuries...the Owners who only go big-game hunting for high-end players are usually the ones who drop off the cliff fast after a few injuries.
 
Do not prioritize onesie positions ever again.

A good rushing attack is a respective fantasy defenses best friend

Do not roster players that score only 2-4 tds a year or pacing to do so

Snap rates matter. Usage matters more. Teams executing their plays to perfection with limited snap players matter the most (Derrick Henry)

consider adding points per carry or points per first down in all leagues.

Target quality greatly matters.

Field position greatly matters.
Great ones here
 
Last year was a rash of QB injuries. This year it’s WR. We’re at like 15 start-worthy players that have missed multiple games. And that doesn’t include the indirect impact to Hill/Waddle. Just a wasteland.

Not sure it’s a lesson learned as much as it is an observation, but it’s definitely the biggest pressure point of this years rosters.
This is probably. A good lesson, rb’s seemed like they got hurt more but maybe that was usage and not the position. As you put more wr in traffic and up their reps, they no less Immune from injury
 
I only do Dynasty and this is nothing new...but the more attention you pay to the middle and bottom part of your roster the more depth you will have and the more ability you will have to withstand injuries...the Owners who only go big-game hunting for high-end players are usually the ones who drop off the cliff fast after a few injuries.

I don't know about this and I'm inclined to agree. I thought I was hella deep this year and that hasn't turned out to be the case at all. I also thought I was a non-contender, and that's not the case at all because of these injuries. Never look at a team in dynasty as invincible in any given year. They might have CMC and Saquon and Tyreek and still be 0-7 to start the year off. (That happened in my league this year.)
 
I only do Dynasty and this is nothing new...but the more attention you pay to the middle and bottom part of your roster the more depth you will have and the more ability you will have to withstand injuries...the Owners who only go big-game hunting for high-end players are usually the ones who drop off the cliff fast after a few injuries.

I don't know about this and I'm inclined to agree. I thought I was hella deep this year and that hasn't turned out to be the case at all. I also thought I was a non-contender, and that's not the case at all because of these injuries. Never look at a team in dynasty as invincible in any given year. They might have CMC and Saquon and Tyreek and still be 0-7 to start the year off. (That happened in my league this year.)

Where you think you are in August and where you actually are in October is often quite different...IMO that's why you keep tinkering with your roster from top-to-bottom.
 
I only do Dynasty and this is nothing new...but the more attention you pay to the middle and bottom part of your roster the more depth you will have and the more ability you will have to withstand injuries...the Owners who only go big-game hunting for high-end players are usually the ones who drop off the cliff fast after a few injuries.

I don't know about this and I'm inclined to agree. I thought I was hella deep this year and that hasn't turned out to be the case at all. I also thought I was a non-contender, and that's not the case at all because of these injuries. Never look at a team in dynasty as invincible in any given year. They might have CMC and Saquon and Tyreek and still be 0-7 to start the year off. (That happened in my league this year.)

Where you think you are in August and where you actually are in October is often quite different...IMO that's why you keep tinkering with your roster from top-to-bottom.

Last year I had a team that I wanted to sell all shares off of. Sold Tony Pollard for double nickels on the dime and it didn't add up. Took a team to the playoffs that had no business being there. This year, I looked at the pieces and really loved my draft. Rashee Rice, Malik Nabers, Brandon Aiyuk, Darnell Mooney, and Terry McLaurin are my five WRs in a start 3 WR 2RB 1QB 1TE 1D/ST league with no flex spots. I drafted Tyrod Tracy at 3.10. I have Pacheco and Hubbard as my other RBs (there's another one in there I'm forgetting). So I feel pretty good about these guys, right? Nope. 1-6, friend. Have fun next year.

It's crazy.
 
Maybe a lesson relearned but one it will be hard to forget... don't buy lemons. Don't draft guys who are hurt in camp in the first 5 rounds.

Puka, LaPorta, McCaffery... there may be more, they may slide where it gets convincing but the best ability is availability.

I think I might extend that to not taking guys who held out. Every one of them has not lived up to ADP yet. They may yet but you're probably not succeeding with them currently.
We say that because we remember the negative examples, but I drafted Tee Higgins this year, he missed the first two games, and since then has been a stud
 
You know those rookie receivers who you believe "aRe DIffEreNT" because "hE hIM?"

They're not.

He isn't.
That's funny, I was just thinking the other day how I'm glad I didn't waste high draft capital on MHJ or even Nabers and simply waited to take Brian Thomas
 
This was the year of the two-high defense, also known as a two-high safety defense:
I pulled this from AI search, but it really has been the big difference maker this year across the board and has made explosive rookies suck and savvy vets succeed.
  • What it is
    Two-high defenses use split safeties to cover the deep part of the field, with the goal of forcing offenses to move the ball downfield.

  • How it's used
    In 2024, the percentage of two-high safety looks on passing attempts has increased from 44% in 2019 to 63%.

  • How it's been used
    The two-high defense became more popular in the late 2010s, when Fangio's system was used by the Chicago Bears and the Denver Broncos.

  • How it's been effective
    The two-high defense has been effective in limiting explosive plays downfield.

  • How it compares to other coverages
    In 2023, Cover 3 was the most common coverage, but Cover 1 and Cover 3 combined made up more than half of coverage snaps.
Some say that the two-high defense is masking the biggest issue in the NFL, which is a lack of offensive line talent, depth, and coaching. Others say that offenses will find a way to counteract defenses, and that the ebb and flow of the NFL season is what makes it the best game in the world.
 
you said this in ANY other year for the past decade or something, and you'd be dead wrong.
Disagree. It's been rubbish outside the top few guys forever.

Right, but there were always top guys... That doesn't even seem to exist now
Much of the fantasy community has long tried to find the next Travis Kelce, but he may always prove to be an exception to the rule. Gronk was one and Tony Gonzalez probably the other.

It's such a rare combination of factors to find a sustained difference maker at the TE position. You need high end talent, a good-to-great QB, and a pass heavy offense that runs through the TE. Guys like Andrews, LaPorta and McBride have obviously had their moments of outsized production, but often fleeting when the situation around them changes (for example, target competition).

Maybe Bowers could be the next closest to Kelce, but I wouldn't bank on it.
I remember drafting Gonzalez almost every year back in the day. always finished near the top.
Kelce carried many teams the last few years. even saw him drafted 5th overall in one league this year.
This is one reason I tried to draft Bowers whenever I could this year.
Of course, Mayer was supposed to be special last year and he has flopped.
 
That I am only playing best ball from now on. Three losses already due to players going out injured on their teams first possession of the game.

I like figuring out who to start, but I’m done with injuries tanking me. Best Ball only from now on.
 
stay away from drafting RBs on bad offensive teams.
I don't think that's necessarily true. Guys like Tony Pollard and Chuba Hubbard - and there are others - are doing just fine. I would agree that you probably want to stay away from RBs on bad offensive teams that catch very few passes.
 
Marvin Harrison jr worst #1 dynasty pick ever. Not all his fault as his QB is completely awful.
He isn't even the worst of the last 5 years mate.

CEH was consensus 1.01 year he came out.
The CEH mention is relevant though. Focusing on talent - to the extent we can know - rather than situation is probably a better strategy.

CEH came into a great situation, but just wasn't that good. On a lesser scale, Zamir White had all the opportunity in the world and flopped. And the list goes on and on. For me, this memory goes back at least 20 years ago when many folks were all over Michael Bennett because he went to the Vikings as a rookie, while some guy named LaDainian Tomlinson was viewed somewhat lower because he went to the lowly Chargers.
 
Some say that the two-high defense is masking the biggest issue in the NFL, which is a lack of offensive line talent, depth, and coaching. Others say that offenses will find a way to counteract defenses, and that the ebb and flow of the NFL season is what makes it the best game in the world.

Or that defensive line EDGE rushers are no longer 300 lbs. but 240-250 with bend and speed and that defense needs less precision than offense. I don't think OL play has gotten worse. I think the offenses have been sped up in their needed release time and deep shots take a long time.
 
Marvin Harrison jr worst #1 dynasty pick ever. Not all his fault as his QB is completely awful.
He isn't even the worst of the last 5 years mate.

CEH was consensus 1.01 year he came out.
The CEH mention is relevant though. Focusing on talent - to the extent we can know - rather than situation is probably a better strategy.

CEH came into a great situation, but just wasn't that good. On a lesser scale, Zamir White had all the opportunity in the world and flopped. And the list goes on and on. For me, this memory goes back at least 20 years ago when many folks were all over Michael Bennett because he went to the Vikings as a rookie, while some guy named LaDainian Tomlinson was viewed somewhat lower because he went to the lowly Chargers.

That said, careful with RBs with a dead end in rookie drafts. There's a fine line.
 
Maybe a lesson relearned but one it will be hard to forget... don't buy lemons. Don't draft guys who are hurt in camp in the first 5 rounds.

Puka, LaPorta, McCaffery... there may be more, they may slide where it gets convincing but the best ability is availability.

I think I might extend that to not taking guys who held out. Every one of them has not lived up to ADP yet. They may yet but you're probably not succeeding with them currently.
We say that because we remember the negative examples, but I drafted Tee Higgins this year, he missed the first two games, and since then has been a stud
Tee wasn't hurt in camp though, as I recall. He got hurt before Week 1 and letsf face it it may have been a soft hold in
 
Marvin Harrison jr worst #1 dynasty pick ever. Not all his fault as his QB is completely awful.
He isn't even the worst of the last 5 years mate.

CEH was consensus 1.01 year he came out.
The CEH mention is relevant though. Focusing on talent - to the extent we can know - rather than situation is probably a better strategy.

CEH came into a great situation, but just wasn't that good. On a lesser scale, Zamir White had all the opportunity in the world and flopped. And the list goes on and on. For me, this memory goes back at least 20 years ago when many folks were all over Michael Bennett because he went to the Vikings as a rookie, while some guy named LaDainian Tomlinson was viewed somewhat lower because he went to the lowly Chargers.

That said, careful with RBs with a dead end in rookie drafts. There's a fine line.
Oh for sure. For every Gibbs, Bijan or other recent early round RBs that have a big time future, you have others drafted slightly later (albeit still day two) like Trey Benson or Kendre Miller whose futures are cloudy at best.
 
That I am only playing best ball from now on. Three losses already due to players going out injured on their teams first possession of the game.

I like figuring out who to start, but I’m done with injuries tanking me. Best Ball only from now on.
Wish more dynasty leagues would do best ball. Deebo's zero hurt pretty bad this weekend, cost me a W in multiple leagues. The guy's got freaking pneumonia and they didn't catch it and bench him before the game started?

Same with some of the concussions, MHJr or Olave knocked out early in games a week ago as recent examples.
 

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