Just for a contrarian viewpoint on some of the points mentioned in this thread, the following is an article I wrote for the FBG book a couple of years ago. It's likely to get skewered by you guys, but the principles have worked for me over time.
Anti-Establishment Auction Drafting Strategies
The very fact that you are reading this article means you’re serious about Fantasy Football. You and I are always searching for the edge that will separate us from the other sharks in our leagues. Let’s face it. If you’re in a competitive league (or three), many owners start with the same basic projections and strategies and go from there.
How you strategies and projections differentiate yourself from the rest of the owners in your league will determine your fate. This article will deal with what may seem to be counter-intuitive strategies in terms of auction style player allocation. However, as founder and commissioner of the PFFFL for the past 14 years, I feel I have seen it all with regard to our yearly auctions. Here are some thoughts for owners new to this style as well as those that have an open mind to fresh ideas.
First, let’s list the assumptions. Your salary cap is $200, you draft 15 players and there are 10 owners in the league. You must come to the auction with projected auction figures for 150 players totaling $30,000 ($200 * 15 * 10). If you don’t want to spend the time to create a spreadsheet like this based on the parameters of your league, I’d like to play against you.
1. Establishment Auction Rule: Never bid more than the projection you created on your spreadsheet.
My Rule: Don’t be afraid to do what it takes to get the player you want.
Your auction board projects LaDainian Tomlinson to be the highest rated back and you give him a dollar value of $75 (example only). You foresee great things for Tomlinson this year and really want him on your squad. After numerous bids, you are extremely nervous as your rival bids $75 for him. Here is where many “experts” say to let him pass as he’s reached your projection. The rationale is that if you never go over your projection, simple mathematics says that you will eventually get bargains since there is a fixed pool of dollars available. In theory, that rationale makes all the sense in the world. In practice, however, you’ll be sorry if you don’t allow yourself to vary from your projections as the auction unfolds.
First, these numbers are simply projections. If nothing else, your $75 value was validated by your rival’s bid. Perhaps your projection was undervalued by a dollar, two, or three. Is it possible when we look back at things one year from now that our projections were a bit off? Of course. Don’t let him pass simply because you are a slave to the number you came up with on your board. Bid another dollar. Trust me. There is no worse feeling than having the most money of all the owners at the end of a draft but having no player worthy of that extra cap room. You’re a shark. You’ll be able to make up that $1 and more later on in the auction with other undervalued players. More often than not, studs will win your league. Go get one.
2. Establishment Auction Rule: Try not to get caught up in bidding on players early on when owners have all or nearly all of their cash available. Let the guppies overspend early and swoop in later for bargains.
My Rule: Timing in an auction, be it early, middle, or late should play no role in your overall auction strategy.
This is one of my favorite “tips’ the experts give that I enjoy poking fun at. Again, we’re assuming your league is full of sharks. They’ve all heard this “strategy” as well, right? What would happen if everyone followed this advice like sheep? If they did, it stands to reason that the opposite result may occur. You may indeed find some VALUE by picking up players early on in your auction as the sharks sit on the sidelines waiting for later in the draft.
Let’s go back to my first example with LaDainian Tomlinson. You have projected for $75. He was thrown out first in the auction and the current bid stands at $72. The commissioner begins the countdown. Going once, Going twice. Should you bid? Have you overestimated his value? He’s the first player thrown out so your mind is racing. All you can think of is “let the guppies overspend early”. Of course, that’s hogwash. Obviously, this is an extreme example with your highest rated player being the first player thrown out, but I’d argue this strategy holds throughout the early portion of your auction.
Moreover, has anyone stopped to think about why more dollars get spent early on in auction player allocations? If you’re like my league where players are allocated by owners in rotating fashion, there’s an easy explanation. More often than not, owners will submit the best players early on for allocation. If you blindly followed the establishment way of thinking here, you’re likely to forego opportunities to get one of those stud RBs you’ll need, simply because you’re blindly letting the guppies overspend early on. At some point you have to jump in, but if you’re not careful it may already be too late.
Finally, I’ll reiterate a point I mentioned earlier. You do not want to be the owner with the most cap room left at the end of the auction. This, too may seem counter-intuitive. Yet it happens every year in my league. The owner with the most money left over has no player worthy of those dollars. They’re puzzled. How can this be? They followed the two golden rules. They didn’t bid on a player when their bid would exceed their projection. And they didn’t overspend early. How could this have happened? In every case, I’d much rather be the owner that fills out my roster first and watches to see who will have too much money left at the end of the auction snickering to myself all the while.
3. Establishment Auction Rule: Never, ever, under any circumstance, spend more than the minimum on a Kicker or on a Defense.
My Rule: While scoring in these positions is extremely volatile, we should be able to identify a few potential high scorers at each of these positions. Spend an extra dollar and get one.
This is another long-standing rule in Fantasy Football drafting or player allocations via auction. Never draft a Kicker before the last round (or very late). If an auction, never spend more than the minimum on one. As you can see, I don’t subscribe to that theory, especially in an auction format. Let me give you a statistic. Since we began utilizing an auction as our way of allocating players, 78% of them have gone for our minimum bid amount. So we have many “sharks” who also subscribe to this establishment rule. However, let’s take a look at this upcoming year. Near the top of any Kicker ranking will be Mike Vanderjagt. It’s not likely he’ll repeat his perfect season of one year ago, but there is no doubt he will have many opportunities kicking for the high-powered Colts offense. There is also no reason to think his accuracy will diminish greatly, either. To me, he once again can provide the separation we look for at each position when obtaining our players. Yet I guarantee you there are owners in my league that will not bid more than the minimum for Vanderjagt or any other Kicker. No, not $1 more than the minimum. To me, that is foolish. $1 out of a $200 cap is pretty inconsequential. Even $1 on a $100 cap (which is what our league uses as we only draft 12 players) is worth the price to obtain that scoring differentiation.
Here’s another tip when auctioning off Kickers. Start the bidding at $1 more than the minimum price. You’ve already eliminated the “sharks” who won’t get a kicker for anything other than the minimum. By bidding $1 more than the minimum, you’ve forced other owners to spend $2 over the minimum if they want that player. Subconsciously, that’s a pretty significant investment for the owners in your league. Plus, if you throw out Mike Vanderjagt this year for the minimum, I think it’s pretty likely that someone in every league in the country will raise you $1. Throw him out for $1 more, though, and you might steal him. Before you cry that you’re wasting $1 that could be used somewhere else, I revert back to an earlier point. I guarantee you don’t have 100% accurate projections. And you’re a shark. You’re going to be getting value throughout your auction anyway. Use one of the dollars you’ve saved right here.
There’s no question this strategy depends on you to identify who are the other potential Mike Vanderjagts. Defenses may be ever trickier. The theory remains, however, that if you have a high degree of confidence in one of these positions, do not limit yourself to the minimum bids.
4. Establishment Auction Rule: Throw out players for auction that you have no interest in. The money spent by other owners means less money for them to compete against you for players you really want.
My Rule: Vary your strategy by throwing out players you covet or those you think will be overpriced.
Similar to poker, you don’t want to have any tells. You should never employ a strategy that gives your competitors an advantage. By only throwing out players you do not have an interest in, you’re tipping off your competition. If you don’t think your fellow owners notice you only throw out players you have no interest in, you’re probably sorely mistaken.
What are the implications? Other owners will know that you think the market will overpay for that player. That in and of itself can have negative implications. Some of your fellow owners that respect your valuations may shy away from bidding on that player. It can scare people into the “he knows something I don’t know” philosophy. As a result of that, another owner may indeed swoop in and claim the player for below market value despite your reservations about him. Just as importantly, I always like to keep the competition guessing. Any time I can force the other owners into additional frenzied research or a panicked shuffle of papers, I’m at an advantage. I don’t want them to think they know anything about my style.
As a caveat to this rule, there are very good reasons where you might want to employ the establishment rule here. Say for instance that as luck would have it, you obtain LaDainian Tomlinson and Ahman Green with your first two acquisitions. However when your turn comes around to nominate a player for auction, Priest Holmes is still available. This indeed would be a good time to force one of your fellow owners to ante up and spend some money on a position of strength for you.
The thought with this rule is simply to never allow yourself to become predictable in the minds of other owners. You should strive to have an advantage in terms of both preparation and in-auction maneuverings.
Well, there you have it. Those are my thoughts on some of the establishment’s rules for auction player allocations and how you should have second thoughts about some of the most popular. In all likelihood, you’re a smarter guy than I am, but I offer these thoughts from the perspective of a 14-year commissioner of a highly competitive league that has been utilizing the auction format for nine of those years. Those auctions have helped me draw my own conclusions about strategy and I’m sure you have your own thoughts as well. Good luck on the upcoming season.
Paul Pogodzinski
paul_pogo@sbcglobal.net
What fool is going to spend half his cap on one guy? NOBODY is worth that.Re. the studs vs balance thing, there is not right answer, but lately I'm leaning to getting a top stud or 3 and praying I get good value w/the rest. Had LT last year and to a large extent he carried me while guys like R Moss and Favre were sucking. Course getting Dunn on the cheap didn't hurt.....
Spending half or more of your $ on one player in such hopes is an exceedingly weak strategy and just flat-out stupid. Period.
