I just finished an article that sort of serves as a template of sorts, breaking down what I'm looking to spend per position and who to target at their average value. I put together a top-heavy template (seems like that's what you're most interested in) and a middle-heavy template because we all know plans can go awry in a hurry at auction.
Hopefully it'll give ya some ideas. I finished it the day before Leshoure went down, so Best's value is probably outta whack now.
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I love penning this article every year (2011 now being the fourth annual installment)! It affords me the opportunity to sit down with a completely clean slate and honestly answer the tough questions about player values. Last year in this very article, I tipped our readers off on several fantasy football auction gems including Arian Foster at $2, Eli Manning at $8, Matt Forte $17 as well as Hakeem Nicks at $17 among others.
THE SETUP:
For the four major positions (QB/RB/WR/TE) I've created a top-heavy plan and a middle heavy plan. Things change on a dime at auction and you need to be prepared for every scenario. So I've prepped you with an option that includes one/two top-tier studs at the position as well as a plan for landing several mid-range players.
EVERY auction takes on a life of it’s own, so the most likely scenario is that you'll end up blending the top heavy and middle heavy plans to some degree.
Article is based on the following:
My fantasy league average auction values as of 8-5-11.
12-Team, 20 round auction with a $200 budget. Every team must draft the minimum starting roster of 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1K, 1DEF and 11 reserves. High Performance scoring applies:
Passing Yards (1 point per 30 yds)
Passing Touchdowns (4)
Interceptions (-1)
Rushing Yards (10 yards per point)
Rushing Touchdowns (6)
Reception Yards (10 yards per point)
Reception Touchdowns (6)
Return Touchdowns (6)
2-Point Conversions (2)
Fumbles (-1)
Fumbles Lost (-2)
Offensive Fumble Return TD (6)
No point per reception. Your fairly standard scoring.
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YOUR OVERALL PLAN FOR 2011:
It's almost never the five most expensive names you win at auction that make your team a contender. Yes, it goes without saying that your studs need to stay healthy; but out-draft your opponents in that middle, $7-$15 range. THAT'S our wheelhouse. That’s where championships are won.
For the sake of your precious time, I've alotted you a more than generous $10 for Defense and Kicker, leaving us with $190 budget. You can do that damage on your own so I'll stick with the main courses: QB, RB, WR and TE with a $190 budget.
A WORD ON THE 2011 QB'S:
14% budget. At QB, I favor the top-heavy plan below. There‘s really seven names to concern yourself with: Rodgers, Vick, Brees, Brady, Rivers, Romo and Manning. After Peyton Manning ($22) the QB’s fall off a cliff to Josh Freeman ($16). If we fail to land one of these top 7 studs, we’re working from a disadvantage. That being said, your opponents probably know this as well and might be willing to get into huge bidding wars for the elite QB’s when the bullets fly. Fine! Don’t follow them. That just means more value for us at RB and WR. Bottom line: You want one of the top 7, but you don’t need one thanks to our rock-solid middle-heavy plan.
A WORD ON THE 2011 RB'S:
38% budget. For our RB's, I favor the middle-heavy plan by a significant margin. To land two Top 8 RB‘s, we’ll need to pony up 85.5% of our RB budget; which leaves us a little light on quality depth. In the middle-heavy plan, our #3-#5 backs are three moderate risk, high reward commodities that I have a great feeling about this year. We only need one of them to go boom.
A WORD ON THE 2011 WR'S:
35% budget. Truth be told, I'm a fan of certain aspects of both the top-heavy and middle-heavy plans at WR below. I think the best solution could very well be to blend the two plans together.
A WORD ON THE 2011 TE'S:
8% budget. I've always done well in fantasy with not screwing around at TE and throwing down the money for a top 3 guy. But this year it’s looking like the position runs as deep as it ever has in recent memory. I think we can shave a few bucks with the names I’ve outline below.
Let’s get crack-a-lackin’…
QUARTERBACK TOP-HEAVY: $28 Budget
PHILLIP RIVERS ($23) or TONY ROMO ($23): This is a personal flavor thing, but with either Rivers or Romo we’re paying $5 to $6 less than the Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick owners…and I’m not sure we’re giving anything up in production. Last year without the services of Vincent Jackson and Gates for a period of time, Rivers proved it doesn’t matter. Regarding Romo, how quickly people forget that at the time of his season-ending injury he was the #1 fantasy QB through the first six weeks. The guy was on pace to throw 32 touchdowns and that’s without Dez Bryant having the first clue about what he was doing! You can get these guys at the lower end of the top QB tier and either one is going to treat you right.
(and) MATT CASSEL ($5): We already know the commodity Cassel has in Dwayne Bowe and I feel one of the most underrated moves of this free agency period was the Chiefs’ quietly signing Steve Breaston. Jamaal Charles has a brutal rushing strength of schedule and K.C. might find themselves being forced to the air in some high-scoring affairs. NOTE: Cassel has the same bye week as Rivers.
(or) RYAN FITZPATRICK ($3): I’m not enamored with Fitzpatrick, but he has a healthy CJ Spiller and 2010’s waiver WR gem Steve Johnson. The one thing we’re assured with the Bills’ defense is that Fitzpatrick will be chucking the ball plenty in the fourth quarter vs. prevent defenses. He’s a serviceable stop-gap if Rivers or Romo missed time.
QUARTERBACK MIDDLE-HEAVY: $27 Budget
MATT SCHAUB ($13): In my mind Scaub’s getting a bad rap this year based on two factors (neither of which are likely to repeat themselves this year): the dominance of Arian Foster in the Red-Zone and Andre Johnson’s nagging ankle sprain in 2010. With Foster, the Texans found themselves a bona fide stud in the running game that opposing defenses must account for. These things tend to have an ebb-n-flow to them and last year opponents held the mantra, “Stop the Passing Game at all Costs”. The presence of Foster no longer affords them that luxury. With a healthy Andre Johnson, Schaub rebounds big time.
(and) MATTHEW STAFFORD ($9): Mark my words - if Matthew Stafford plays 16 games he’s among the top 10 QB’s by season’s end. Problem is we’re talking about something he has yet to do entering the third year of his career. In three starts last year Stafford threw six touchdowns and ran in another. Since that time the Lions have done nothing but add more weapons on offense. You do the math.
(and) TIM TEBOW ($5): The recent news out of Denver that Kyle Orton is the unquestioned starter has Tim Tebow’s stock plummeting. As it should. By the time you draft, you may be able to acquire Tebow for a two dollar bill if it’s late in the game and Orton’s owner didn’t leave himself with enough $ to handcuff. Tebow is a complete wildcard who may not see the field at all. But we’re talking about our QB3 here and fantasy owners already know the upside here from Tebow’s three late-season starts in 2010. There’s plenty worse bets to make with 2.5% your total budget.
RUNNING BACK TOP-HEAVY: $76 Budget
JAMAAL CHARLES ($36) or RAY RICE ($35) or ARIAN FOSTER ($35): Much like Rivers/Romo, this is another “Pick you flavor” option as your top RB. Speaking strictly for myself, I’d lean toward Ray Rice of the three above. This off-season it looks like the stars have aligned for Rice to be a flat out STUD in 2011. Third down vulture Willis McGahee took his services out west where he can be a thorn in the side of Knowshon Moreno owners instead and Le’Ron McClain defected to the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Ravens added monster Pro_Bowl FB Vonta Leach who spent 2010 blasting holes in defenses for Arian Foster.
I’m a tad less bullish on Jamaal Charles (tough rush schedule, improved passing game) and Arian Foster (See Matt Schaub notes above) than Ray Rice - but you’ll do well with any of these three as your cornerstone RB.
(and) DARREN MCFADDEN ($29): Let’s be honest, he’s about all they got. Yes, the Raiders passing game could see improvements on 2010, if only for the fact that this is the first time in Jason Campbell’s entire career that he won’t be asked to learn a new offense. Don’t be fooled though. The loss of Zach Miller was huge. McFadden is slated for a ton of touches (both rushing/receiving) if he stays healthy.
(and) MICHAEL BUSH ($4): With our Top-Heavy RB plan, we’re betting the farm on two stud RB’s. So it only makes sense to protect our investment. Bush shouldn’t play much of a role with McFadden healthy, but he’s the clear-cut backup if D-Mac loses time to injury.
(and) BRANDON JACOBS ($3): I’m loving the fact that Ahmad Bradshaw re-upped with the G-Men because it helps keep Jacobs’ value under wraps. Even when healthy, he's a non-factor as a receiver. But at the end of the day, we have a coach in Tom Coughlin that loves to run the football openly admitting Brandon Jacobs needs more carries. We have Brandon Jacobs himself, averaging 5.6 yards a carry on 147 attempts last year - second in the NFL to only Jamaal Charles among RB's that ran the ball 100+ times. And we have Ahmad Bradshaw at least a Happy Meal shy of 200 lbs. atop the depth chart. Brandon Jacobs’ is a “1b” RB that can currently be had at backup prices.
(and) JACQUIZZ RODGERS ($3): Has caught QB Matt Ryan’s eye in camp with underrated ability to pass-block and he’s already been named the team’s undisputed third down back. Michael Turner offers nada in the passing game and that means ‘quizz has a role from day one. Shhhhh…
(and) BEN TATE ($1): Tate is buried on the depth chart of the NFL’s most prolific rushing offense last year and that makes him a name to know. He currently sits behind Derrick Ward on depth chart, but I have a hunch that’s only a symbolic gesture toward Ward. I like Tate’s skill-set better and there’s no doubt he’d be given every opportunity to compete with Ward if Foster missed time. UPDATE: Arian Foster now dealing with a hamstring injury.
RUNNING BACK MIDDLE-HEAVY: $76 Budget
SHONN GREENE ($20): I’m coming back for more. Last year in this very article I touted Greene and got burned bad. So what’s changed in 2011? Everything. LaDainian Tomlinson is a year older. He hit the proverbial wall in the second half last year and looks to be nothing more than a situational play for the Jets. Joe McKnight doesn’t have the frame and is entrenched as an extra hand in the passing game. Which leaves 5’11” 207 lb. rookie Bilal Powell as the only real option/threat to Greene for early down duty. Coach Rex Ryan confirmed that he plans on giving defenses "a heavy dose of Shonn Greene" and the Jets RB coach has been quoted as saying he wants Shonn to get 300+ carries. The fact that Greene couldn’t catch a cold be damned, he screams value at $20.
MARK INGRAM ($19): H.C. Sean Payton and the Saints resoundingly replied to the question, “What are you gonna do about the league’s 28th ranked running game last year?” with the selection of Mark Ingram in the first round. There is little doubt in my mind Ingram will be given the first, second and every possible opportunity to be a bell-cow RB this year. That makes 250 carries a very real possibility and you generally can’t find anything like that at 9.5% budget. We’re taking some risks here with the unknown but it could land us a top 10 fantasy back.
JAHVID BEST ($19): Looked like a RB possessed before early season ankle and turf tow injuries set in and lingered all year. He was never the same guy. Early camp reports indicate Best looks fast and equally as explosive as his pre-injury form last year. We’ll do the prudent thing and back up Best with rookie Mikel LeShoure. For $27 we can lock up the Lions running game. Detroit is looking poised this year.
If Jahvid Best simply isn’t your flavor or you need to shave a few dollars because of overspending elsewhere, I also Like Jonathan Stewart ($16) and Daniel Thomas ($13) at those prices. Stewart is guaranteed a timeshare with DeAngelo Williams and I believe it’s only a matter of time before the Dolphins find out the same thing the Saints did; that Reggie Bush is simply not a between-the-tackles early down RB.
CJ SPILLER ($8): Rest assured, Fred Jackson is still the man in this offense as long as he’s healthy. But to a degree, I think people have largely forgotten just how much talent and explosiveness Spiller really has. I’m betting the Bills make a more concerted effort to get him the ball in space this year and he’s an excellent consolation prize if Jahvid Best lands on the IR again.
BEANIE WELLS ($7): Has already been named the Cardinals starter. Beanie’s gotten a bad rap (some of it, his own doing) his first two years in the league. Off-season reports were that ever since the Cards’ drafted Ryan Williams, Beanie put his big-boy pants on and went to work. For the first time in his career he’s faced with an actual threat to his job and I’m betting he responds. It wasn’t that long ago the Panthers drafted a highly touted rookie named Jonathan Stewart because the uber-talented and oft-injured DeAngelo Williams couldn’t be trusted. We all know how that turned out.
BRANDON JACOBS (or) JACQUIZZ RODGERS (or) RASHAD JENNINGS ($3): See above.
WIDE RECEIVER TOP-HEAVY: $70 Budget
LARRY FITZGERALD ($30): Fitz is being auctioned at between $1-$5 discount of the other four top 5 receivers. And I don’t think we’re giving much, if anything, away especially in point-per-reception formats.
VINCENT JACKSON ($22): People are a little slow to react on Vincent Jackson’s re-upping with the Chargers. A have a feeling it’s because there’s still a bad aftertaste from his 2010 hold-out. Their loss is our gain. V-Jax is a premiere #1 WR in one of the NFL’s most prolific passing offenses. He’s being priced right now outside of the top 10 with Reggie Wayne and Marques Colston. He’s money as our WR2.
KENNY BRITT ($12): I dare say you could count the number of WR’s more talented than Kenny Britt on one hand. To see what’s possible, we need only the following stat: Britt was #1 among NFL wide receivers last season in fantasy points scored per route run. Read that stat twice and stop and think about it. This is our WR3 folks.
ROBERT MEACHEM ($3): Well, now it’s time to pay the price for spending so much on our starters. As long as our starting WR corps stays healthy (and…in Britt’s case, stay out of jail) we only need to find a 60-700-5 guy with our remaining $6 to get us through the bye weeks. Meachem fit’s the bill. He’s behind Colston and Lance Moore on the depth chart, but his stat line in 2010 was 44-638-5. That’s awful close to everything we’re looking for from our #4 WR. And you won’t be finding Colston’s or Moore’s pictures in the dictionary under “Health” anytime soon.
ROY WILLIAMS ($2): I can’t stand Roy Williams. He’s been an incredibly overrated WR throughout his career. But there is simply no denying that he landed in the ideal fantasy situation with da Bears. In Chicago, Williams immediately becomes a MENSA member among a village of idiots. OC Mike Martz was quoted only four days ago saying, Williams will catch 70-80 balls this year. For two bucks, I’ll buy it.
JOSH MORGAN ($1): Or honestly, whatever $1 WR trips your trigger. What we know about Josh Morgan is that he’s shown flashes of respectability in his career, Crabtree is currently nursing what’s being deemed a 4-6 week foot injury (ominous sign) and Braylon Edwards sucks. Morgan could be thrust into a more prominent role during the season out of necessity.
WIDE RECEIVER MIDDLE-HEAVY: $70 Budget
JEREMY MACLIN ($21): Riddle me this. Who’s the better WR, Maclin or DeSean Jackson? According to your average fantasy player it’s DeSean ($24). While I can’t say this is 100% wrong (it’s still extremely early in their respective careers) I do know that in only his second season - Maclin caught 70 balls, scored 10 times and turned 60.8% of his targets into receptions. Coinicidentally, three things DeSean hasn’t accomplished at any point of his three year career. There are no fantasy pts. For ESPN highlights.
PERCY HARVIN ($16): Risky. I’m not a particular fan of Percy Harvin. I simply don’t think he’s a #1 WR and the Vikings could be in for a rude awakening in their experiment to use him as such. That said, I’m gonna need somebody to point out to me where, in the last decade, Donovan McNabb’s #1 receiving target wasn’t worth 8% budget at auction.
AUSTIN COLLIE ($15): We can only afford the enormous risk that comes with Collie in the Middle-Heavy WR strategy. Collie is as big of a “swing-name” as there is on the board this year. If Reggie Wayne takes a step-back, this guy’s upside is seriously among the NFL’s top 6-7 fantasy commodities. And if he suffers another concussion, his downside is the garden section at Home Depot.
MIKE THOMAS ($7): LOVING me some Mike Thomas this year. The Jags obliged by not diving into the FA pool for a big-name WR and Thomas is currently the only receiver on the roster that was targeted more than 22 times for the Jags last year. Not only that, he maintained a robust 66% catch:target ratio last year. Trust me, do what it takes to roster Thomas up to 7% budget and adjust elsewhere. You want this guy.
CHAD OCHOCINCO ($6): Another receiver who hit the jackpot in free agency and owners have been slow to adjust. At 33 years old, Ocho’s best days are behind him, but the guy averaged 75 rec., 1,078 yards and 6.6 touchdowns a year during his career in Cincy. Do we really believe he’s in store for less with Tom Brady & Co? Another guy that I’m betting we see trend upward because a $6 price tag on Chad in this offense is absurd. You gameplan might be to call Thomas’ and Ochos’ names early in the auction and that way you’ll know if you need to forego the services of Harvin or Collie and will have plenty of time to adjust accordingly.
EMMANUEL SANDERS ($5): Sanders is one of the headliners on my sleeper list this year. Hines Ward finished 2010 with career lows since his rookie year. At 35 years old it’s apparent her’s no longer the receiver he once was. Sanders meanwhile, posted 24 of his 28 rookie receptions in the final half of the season. He gained Roethlisberger’s confidence late in the year. If his progression continues in year #2 you run the risk of being cited for misdemeanor theft if you get this guy added to your roster for five bucks.
TIGHT END: $16 Budget
The tight end position is very weird in general this year. It’s truly a game of the have’s and have not’s, with the top five guys: Gates, Witten, Clark, Finley and Vernon Davis all going for between $15-$21. At that point, prices get slashed in half to the next tier beginning with Jimmy Graham at $8!
Honestly, I can see the merits of grabbing a big name and I can also see the merits of bargain shopping, because TE runs as deep as it has this season as any I can remember in the last 17 years.
Instead of breaking down the names, I’m just gonna lay out my entire TE strategy for you. TE is a quirky creature and their prices can vary drastically from league to league. The two most interesting names to me are Jimmy Graham ($8) and Owen Daniels ($7). I’m on the Graham bandwagon after his late-season surge last year and the last time we saw a healthy Owen Daniels he was leading all TE’s in fantasy scoring. ‘Nuf said.
So here’s my auction plan for TE and it’s a simple one. The first name you’re going to call at auction is Vernon Davis. That’s going to set the pay scale for the rest of your auction at TE. We fantasy owners can’t stand getting screwed at auction, so you can bank on the following. Once the price is set for Davis, it will steadily increase from there to Finley, Clark, Witten and Gates. And whatever Davis goes for the price will come down drastically for the services of Graham and Daniels. If Vernon Davis goes for $14, you know where you stand. You’re going to be priced out of the action for the other top 5 TE’s and your plan is to roster (preferably) BOTH Graham and Daniels for $16.
If Davis goes for $12 or less, then he should probably be on YOUR roster; and if not you know you’ll probably have the budget for Clark, Witten or Finley.
Here’s the one thing you DON’T want to have happen however. Don’t get caught with the top 5 TE’s all being auctioned before Graham or Daniels is already on your roster. Once the top 5 guys are gone, the remaining owners in your league without a TE yet are going to start feeling the pinch of not getting stuck with Gresham or Pettigrew as their starter. And it could cause bidding wars for Graham and Daniels.
Bottom line: Within the first five names you call, you need to have either Gates, Witten, Clark, Finley, Davis or both Graham & Daniels already on the roster.
WRAP-UP
So there it is, your 2011 auction blueprint. There’s also one big grain of salt I need you to take when reviewing your auction draft strategy. All of the above are average auction values. Average being the key word. These prices include the rare instances when say, Kenny Britt was auctioned for $2 because all of the other teams forgot about him and ran out of money. Like I said in the intro., these prices are merely the average and your auction will undoubtedly take a different form. All things being equal, here’s our starting rosters:
TOP HEAVY DRAFT
QB - Rivers/Rivers
RB - Ray Rice
RB - Darren McFadden
WR - Larry Fitzgerald
WR - Vincent Jackson
WR - Kenny Britt
TE - A top 5 guy
MIDDLE HEAVY DRAFT
QB - Matt Schaub
RB - Shonn Greene
RB - Mark Ingram
WR - Jeremy Maclin
WR - Percy Harvin
WR - Austin Collie
TE - Jimmy Graham / Owen Daniels
Now bare in mind, you have phenomenal depth and some 5-star sleepers paired with the middle-heavy draft. When you factor that into the equation, you’ll be loving life if you leave your auction this year with anything resembling the above. Before I go, I wanted to offer several names I still like at their AAV, but due to budget restrictions or roster size I simply couldn’t find a spot for…
QB: Drew Brees ($25), Tom Brady ($25), Ben Roethlisberger ($11), Eli Manning ($7), Kyle Orton ($2)
RB: Rashard Mendenhall ($27), LeGarrette Blount ($21), Ryan Mathews ($19), Daniel Thomas ($13), James Starks ($5), Shane Vereen ($4), Anthony Dixon ($2), Bernard Scott ($2), Taiwan Jones ($1)
WR: Calvin Johnson ($33), Mike Wallace ($26), Dwayne Bowe ($22), Brandon Lloyd ($16), Johnny Knox ($5), Jacoby Ford ($5), Jordy Nelson ($5), Jerome Simpson ($2), Plaxico Burress ($2), Nate Burleson ($1), Brandon LaFell and David Gettis ($1)
TE: Jermichael Finley ($17), Brandon Pettigrew ($5), Jermaine Gresham ($4), Jared Cook ($3), Lance Kendricks ($2), Kevin Boss ($1), Ed Dickson ($0).
Happy Hunting!!!
