Auction: take Gates and lesser WR or top WR and lesser TE? (1 Viewer)

[BigRed]

First FYI: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...04&hl=gates

Not intending to duplicate this, but looked like a lot of it was "should I draft Gates in the 3d or not" or what about drafting RB2 instead, etc. Not interested in that. Not trying to focus on this from only an auction perspective per se either, but it does make a diff and hoping to get auction leaguers input. My strat this year regarding WRs/TEs (and so my interest involves either of the options listed in this thread) starts here, ie get Gates and a 2 tier WR or a top WR and lesser TE. Offhand I have mixed feelings.......inputs appreciated.

 

[BigRed]

aw cmon.

 

[SSOG]

I'd contribute, but I think by now my thoughts on this subject are perfectly clear. Gates has every bit as much value as the legit WR1s in any TE required league, if not more. If you can get Gates for less money than Smiff, Ocho Cinco, or Harrison are going for, then you just got yourself a bargain.

 

[BigRed]

I'd contribute, but I think by now my thoughts on this subject are perfectly clear. Gates has every bit as much value as the legit WR1s in any TE required league, if not more. If you can get Gates for less money than Smiff, Ocho Cinco, or Harrison are going for, then you just got yourself a bargain.

I disagree w/the first statement, but given the "savings" it seems to me that it's preferable to use Gates as your WR1, so to speak. eg here's a (hypothetical) comparison with a guesstimate/ballpark stats for the same cost:OPTION 1:Gates ($12): 900/10Coles ($6): 1000/6OPTION 2:Cooley ($6): 700/6TJ Housh ($12): 900/8Not a dramatic diff but it seems to favor top TE and 2d tier WR vs the reverse, unless of course you're willing to sacrifice more $ elsewhere to get a top WR and 2d tier TE (or comparable draft positions for the non-auctioneers). In PPR this seems to be even more so, not less (figure about 90 catches for Gates vs 60 for Cooley and comparable catches for Coles and TJ).Granted again the stats are a ballpark guess and you could plug in other people here, but they seem a very reasonable middle ground guess I think.

 

[rundave]

OK, you have Option 2 paying twice as much for the same stats.

Option 1 Coles 1000 6 = 136 Fantasy points

Option 2 Housh 900 8 = 138 Fantasy points

Plus, FBG consensus projections has Housh with about 1200 / 8.

A better example would be:

Gates (ADP 31) 1050 10

Cotchery (ADP 83) 1000 6

Total 301 Fantasy points

Housh (ADP 33) 1175 8

Cooley (ADP 81) 710 6

Total 272 Fantasy points

It does seem to favor taking Gates over a WR at his ADP.

 

[SSOG]

I'd contribute, but I think by now my thoughts on this subject are perfectly clear. Gates has every bit as much value as the legit WR1s in any TE required league, if not more. If you can get Gates for less money than Smiff, Ocho Cinco, or Harrison are going for, then you just got yourself a bargain.

I disagree w/the first statement...

Antonio Gates has finished the last three seasons 16th, 8th, and 8th in VBD. Three years ago, only one WR finished with a better VBD score. Two years ago, only one WR finished with a better VBD score. Last year, which was a DOWN YEAR for Gates, a grand total of... three WRs finished with a better VBD score.But let's look deeper and examine these results more closely. The WR who beat out Gates in 2004 was Muhsin Muhammad, who was a late-round afterthought. The WR who beat out Gates in 2005 was Smiff, who according to ADP was being taken as the 14th WR off the board. In 2006, the three WRs who beat out Gates' VBD score were Harrison (drafted as WR8), Owens (drafted as WR7), and Wayne (drafted as WR10)- all seen as very good WRs, but none seen as a "top-tier WR".

In light of this, I'm going to amend my statement. Gates doesn't have every bit as much value as the legit WR1s. Gates has *MORE VALUE* than any of the legit WR1s. Odds are that, not only is he going to produce a VBD number comparable to the very best the WR position can offer, but he's also going to PREDICTABLY produce that number, while you have no idea which WRs are going to finish in the top 5 this season. It's a slam dunk.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I think it comes down to how you feel about Gates. If you think he's gonna play like last season don't pay too much. If you think he's gonna be more like 04 and 05 he's more than worth it. Great wide receivers are easier to find than great tight ends.

 

[mcd]

I think it comes down to how you feel about Gates. If you think he's gonna play like last season don't pay too much. If you think he's gonna be more like 04 and 05 he's more than worth it. Great wide receivers are easier to find than great tight ends.

I love Gates but the switch from Brees to Rivers did not help him at all. I also don't think Norv Turners offense is going to work in his favor if they can get some production from the WR position. Gates is still the obvious #1 TE, but the gap is closing & with the TE depth what it is, I'd wait to take one. I'm in one of Unluckys slow drafts right now & Gates went at 2.10. I took Fitz at 3.1 & came back with Heap at 7.1. His Wr at 7.3 was Chambers. Fitz/Heap or Gates/Chambers. I guess it depends on your ranking of the players but I much prefer Fitz & Heap.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I think it comes down to how you feel about Gates. If you think he's gonna play like last season don't pay too much. If you think he's gonna be more like 04 and 05 he's more than worth it. Great wide receivers are easier to find than great tight ends.

I love Gates but the switch from Brees to Rivers did not help him at all. I also don't think Norv Turners offense is going to work in his favor if they can get some production from the WR position. Gates is still the obvious #1 TE, but the gap is closing & with the TE depth what it is, I'd wait to take one. I'm in one of Unluckys slow drafts right now & Gates went at 2.10. I took Fitz at 3.1 & came back with Heap at 7.1. His Wr at 7.3 was Chambers. Fitz/Heap or Gates/Chambers. I guess it depends on your ranking of the players but I much prefer Fitz & Heap.

I'd probably agree with that (I like Fitzgerald but not too much) but that's more on how I feel about Chambers than Gates. Barring something monumental Gates shouldn't bust. And that's part of the appeal with him. He's one of the few great players in this league and is very valuable in Fantasy Football. I don't know that I'd draft him in the 2nd round but 3rd round definitely.Gates had a great season last year but not as good as in the past because the Chargers were pretty conservative on offense (high powered though it may be) especially early in the season. I doubt he'll play worse than in 06 and he'll likely play better. Should that happen his value will be incredible once again instead of just really good.

It's subjective how people feel about wide receivers so I won't get into specific examples but in generally if the choice is between great tight end/good wide receiver and good tight end/great wide receiver I have to go with the first choice. A player of Antonio Gates caliber a tight end who plays better than most wide receivers let alone tight ends just doesn't come around too often.

 

[mcd]

I think it comes down to how you feel about Gates. If you think he's gonna play like last season don't pay too much. If you think he's gonna be more like 04 and 05 he's more than worth it. Great wide receivers are easier to find than great tight ends.

I love Gates but the switch from Brees to Rivers did not help him at all. I also don't think Norv Turners offense is going to work in his favor if they can get some production from the WR position. Gates is still the obvious #1 TE, but the gap is closing & with the TE depth what it is, I'd wait to take one. I'm in one of Unluckys slow drafts right now & Gates went at 2.10. I took Fitz at 3.1 & came back with Heap at 7.1. His Wr at 7.3 was Chambers. Fitz/Heap or Gates/Chambers. I guess it depends on your ranking of the players but I much prefer Fitz & Heap.

I'd probably agree with that (I like Fitzgerald but not too much) but that's more on how I feel about Chambers than Gates. Barring something monumental Gates shouldn't bust. And that's part of the appeal with him. He's one of the few great players in this league and is very valuable in Fantasy Football. I don't know that I'd draft him in the 2nd round but 3rd round definitely.Gates had a great season last year but not as good as in the past because the Chargers were pretty conservative on offense (high powered though it may be) especially early in the season. I doubt he'll play worse than in 06 and he'll likely play better. Should that happen his value will be incredible once again instead of just really good.

It's subjective how people feel about wide receivers so I won't get into specific examples but in generally if the choice is between great tight end/good wide receiver and good tight end/great wide receiver I have to go with the first choice. A player of Antonio Gates caliber a tight end who plays better than most wide receivers let alone tight ends just doesn't come around too often.

I'm just not real big on Gates situation this season. I can't think of any TE that has really thrived in a Turner offense. Turner runs & runs & runs to set up the downfield pass. This offense reminds me of the old Dallas team with Smith/Tomlinson & Aikman/Rivers. This is also a reason I'm not big on Rivers this season. Turner is a great QB instructor, but they don't put up huge fantasy points in his sytem. Yes, they play better, but not in the fantasy world. I won't compare Gates to Novacek because obviously Gates is the greater talent. Gates will get his catches in this offense, but I'm not seeing him jump back up to his previous numbers. The only reason I don't see him dropping even further is because I can't really see any Wrs stepping up as a go to type. Gates is still #1, but there are a handful of other guys that are very nice value in rounds 6-8.

 

[SSOG]

I think it comes down to how you feel about Gates. If you think he's gonna play like last season don't pay too much. If you think he's gonna be more like 04 and 05 he's more than worth it. Great wide receivers are easier to find than great tight ends.

If you think he's going to play like last season you shouldn't pay too much? His VBD was 16th last year. He had a higher VBD than all but 3 WRs. Last year was the 5th best season by a TE in the last 5 years (only Gates in '04 and '05 and Gonzo in '03 and '04 were better). Even in what is universally acknowledged as a down year, Antonio Gates was a total stud worth as much as a top-5 WR. I mean, the fact that last year could possibly be considered a "bad year" is just proof of how amazing Antonio Gates is, and how far he is ahead of his peers.

I think it comes down to how you feel about Gates. If you think he's gonna play like last season don't pay too much. If you think he's gonna be more like 04 and 05 he's more than worth it. Great wide receivers are easier to find than great tight ends.

I love Gates but the switch from Brees to Rivers did not help him at all. I also don't think Norv Turners offense is going to work in his favor if they can get some production from the WR position. Gates is still the obvious #1 TE, but the gap is closing & with the TE depth what it is, I'd wait to take one. I'm in one of Unluckys slow drafts right now & Gates went at 2.10. I took Fitz at 3.1 & came back with Heap at 7.1. His Wr at 7.3 was Chambers. Fitz/Heap or Gates/Chambers. I guess it depends on your ranking of the players but I much prefer Fitz & Heap.

That's a horrible comparison. Heap's ADP is #58 right now, while Chambers' is #72, over a full round later. The two WRs that are going immediately before and after Heap are Santana Moss and Reggie Brown, and the two WRs going immediately before and after Antonio Gates are Roy Williams and Anquan Boldin. The better comparison, therefore is either Roy Williams + Heap vs. Santana Moss + Gates (using the WRs immediately before the two TEs), or Anquan Boldin + Heap vs. Reggie Brown + Gates.

 

[inca911]

Depending on scoring system, but assuming ppr, Gates outscores TE#2 by 40 points, and outscores TE#10 by about 116 points. 40 points is the difference between WR#18 and WR#36, and 116 points is the difference between WR#1 and WR#36. Gates is therefore worth more than WR#1.

Gates + WR#12 (worst possible scenario is all WRs get drafted in the next round) = 273 points + 250 points = 523 points

Gates + WR#8 (more reasonable that not all WRs are drafted in the next round) = 273 points + 264 points = 534 points

WR#1 + TE#3 (assuming top two TEs get drafted) = 287 points + 222 points = 509 points

QB#1 and QB#2 are similarly separated by 40 points, but PManning outscores QB#10 by only 71 points. So an argument can be made that Gates is even more valuable tham PManning. Gates plus a lesser WR is a definite yes for me, and preferred to top WR + lesser TE.

 

[Bri]

Any time you talk about a guy getting "best ever" stats like we are with Gates, it makes me nervous. There's a limit to how soon I'd take him because of this

 

[crimsonrebel]

Lets also remember that in each of the last two years, Gates stats have declined. Id also like to point out that if youre drafting gates in round three and the WR in round 4 vs drafting the wr in round three and the TE in round 4, you could get someone who will outperform Cooley at TE. Verron Davis has been going in round 5 of all the mocks Ive seen, and hes expected to outperform Cooley.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I think it comes down to how you feel about Gates. If you think he's gonna play like last season don't pay too much. If you think he's gonna be more like 04 and 05 he's more than worth it. Great wide receivers are easier to find than great tight ends.

If you think he's going to play like last season you shouldn't pay too much? His VBD was 16th last year. He had a higher VBD than all but 3 WRs. Last year was the 5th best season by a TE in the last 5 years (only Gates in '04 and '05 and Gonzo in '03 and '04 were better). Even in what is universally acknowledged as a down year, Antonio Gates was a total stud worth as much as a top-5 WR. I mean, the fact that last year could possibly be considered a "bad year" is just proof of how amazing Antonio Gates is, and how far he is ahead of his peers.

He was a second round pick last season. That was too high my opinion. Antonio Gates only averaged a little more than 1 point per game than Tony Gonzalez last season and Gonzo was drafted at least 3 rounds later. Gates also had that same 1 point advantage over Crumpler who was drafted later than that. So while it may have looked good on paper drafting Antonio Gates incredibly high last season wasn't all that it was cracked up to be.You won't find a better tight end than Gates but if he plays like last season you can definitely find close enough. That's why with Gates I don't think it's a question of if he's the #1 tight end. It's by how much. If in my heart of hearts I think he'll play like last season I damn sure won't draft him in the second round and probably not in the third either. If I think he will play at that 1000 yard, 10TD level than I would draft him in the third. Overall if he's in the third round or not going for too much then I take him.What I won't do is overpay for any player. I wouldn't draft Manning in the first round and I won't draft Gates in the second round.

 

[mcd]

I think it comes down to how you feel about Gates. If you think he's gonna play like last season don't pay too much. If you think he's gonna be more like 04 and 05 he's more than worth it. Great wide receivers are easier to find than great tight ends.

If you think he's going to play like last season you shouldn't pay too much? His VBD was 16th last year. He had a higher VBD than all but 3 WRs. Last year was the 5th best season by a TE in the last 5 years (only Gates in '04 and '05 and Gonzo in '03 and '04 were better). Even in what is universally acknowledged as a down year, Antonio Gates was a total stud worth as much as a top-5 WR. I mean, the fact that last year could possibly be considered a "bad year" is just proof of how amazing Antonio Gates is, and how far he is ahead of his peers.

I think it comes down to how you feel about Gates. If you think he's gonna play like last season don't pay too much. If you think he's gonna be more like 04 and 05 he's more than worth it. Great wide receivers are easier to find than great tight ends.

I love Gates but the switch from Brees to Rivers did not help him at all. I also don't think Norv Turners offense is going to work in his favor if they can get some production from the WR position. Gates is still the obvious #1 TE, but the gap is closing & with the TE depth what it is, I'd wait to take one. I'm in one of Unluckys slow drafts right now & Gates went at 2.10. I took Fitz at 3.1 & came back with Heap at 7.1. His Wr at 7.3 was Chambers. Fitz/Heap or Gates/Chambers. I guess it depends on your ranking of the players but I much prefer Fitz & Heap.

That's a horrible comparison. Heap's ADP is #58 right now, while Chambers' is #72, over a full round later. The two WRs that are going immediately before and after Heap are Santana Moss and Reggie Brown, and the two WRs going immediately before and after Antonio Gates are Roy Williams and Anquan Boldin. The better comparison, therefore is either Roy Williams + Heap vs. Santana Moss + Gates (using the WRs immediately before the two TEs), or Anquan Boldin + Heap vs. Reggie Brown + Gates.

It wasn't a comparison, it is the way the Phenom draft actually went. I try not to use ADPs in comparisons because the drafts rarely unfold that way. That's why it is an "average", every time a player goes in round 3, there is a time he will go in round 4. In the specific draft I was discussing, Gates went early (at 2:10) & then TEs sat for another 4 rounds. I'm sure he grabbed Gates above his ADP because he was concerned I would take him at the 2.12-3.1 turn (as many FBGs suggest). By taking Gates a few picks early, he pushed an extra WR (Fitz) to me (R. Williams was taken immediatly after). The problem was then compounded when a run of TEs did not materialize until round 7. I'm sure the Gates owner had planned on a mini TE run to happen in rounds 4 - 6 to push a better WR down to him. As it didn't happen, he was stuck with his choice of guys like Chambers & D. Jackson at 7.3. By taking Gates early he had locked himself out of the value created by the TEs dropping. I love ADP, but using it to track who will be available after round 3 is a losing proposition. If the run on TEs had happened in round 5 or 6, sure, he had a shot at Brown or Moss.

 

[BigRed]

I think it comes down to how you feel about Gates. If you think he's gonna play like last season don't pay too much. If you think he's gonna be more like 04 and 05 he's more than worth it. Great wide receivers are easier to find than great tight ends.

I love Gates but the switch from Brees to Rivers did not help him at all. I also don't think Norv Turners offense is going to work in his favor if they can get some production from the WR position. Gates is still the obvious #1 TE, but the gap is closing & with the TE depth what it is, I'd wait to take one.

This is what I'm kicking around ie was Gates' dip and emergence of a handful of "pretty close to Gates" TEs how it will be, or will Gates re-emerge with the larger separation from most/all other TEs enough as Rivers and the WRs develop? Will Tuner frak up Gates or are the DAL/etc comparisons isolated/invalid?Anyway some great discussion here, thx. Would like to hear some auction perspective....

 

[SSOG]

I think it comes down to how you feel about Gates. If you think he's gonna play like last season don't pay too much. If you think he's gonna be more like 04 and 05 he's more than worth it. Great wide receivers are easier to find than great tight ends.

If you think he's going to play like last season you shouldn't pay too much? His VBD was 16th last year. He had a higher VBD than all but 3 WRs. Last year was the 5th best season by a TE in the last 5 years (only Gates in '04 and '05 and Gonzo in '03 and '04 were better). Even in what is universally acknowledged as a down year, Antonio Gates was a total stud worth as much as a top-5 WR. I mean, the fact that last year could possibly be considered a "bad year" is just proof of how amazing Antonio Gates is, and how far he is ahead of his peers.

He was a second round pick last season.

According to ADP, Gates was the 28th player off the board last season, which would make him pick 3.04 in a 12-team league. Besides, he more than justified the cost, finishing with the 16th-best VBD in the land.

 

[Steel Dillo]

This year I will be going into our blind auction with Gates as one of my primary targets. I think he will be that valuable.

In a blind auction, their are a lot of dynamics that could affect his value. But to make sure I have a good shot at him, I'm going to put in a bid 10% higher than the average salary of the top paid TE from our league for the last five years.

 

[BigRed]

? A blind auction draft? Good luck though.

I'm hoping he won't be thrown out until later after a lot of people have spent their $ and I can get him for less than the expected $12 ($100 cap), but not holding my breath. If he starts going up into the teens, I'll probably pass. Bottom line, I have a "lingering concern" that Rivers/HC/etc may cause his #s to be similar to last year, which isn't enough separation to merit spending that much when I can get guys like Gonzo or Heap for $7ish.

 

[SSOG]

? A blind auction draft? Good luck though.I'm hoping he won't be thrown out until later after a lot of people have spent their $ and I can get him for less than the expected $12 ($100 cap), but not holding my breath. If he starts going up into the teens, I'll probably pass. Bottom line, I have a "lingering concern" that Rivers/HC/etc may cause his #s to be similar to last year, which isn't enough separation to merit spending that much when I can get guys like Gonzo or Heap for $7ish.

Have you missed it the several times in this thread that I've said that Gates' numbers last year were still good enough for the #16 overall finish in end-of-season VBD?Even if Gates produces identical numbers to last season, he will more than justify his cost. Heck, he produced 9 TDs in a season where Tomlinson was busy setting the single-season scoring record! He led all TEs in both TDs and yardage, too- a feat that's only happened 4 times since 1990 (once by Gates himself, twice by Gonzo, once by Sharpe).

 

[BigRed]

Have you missed it the several times in this thread that I've said that Gates' numbers last year were still good enough for the #16 overall finish in end-of-season VBD?

No, but I don't buy into the whole VBD thing (beyond the very basics of the concept), so frankly it didn't mean much to me.

Even if Gates produces identical numbers to last season, he will more than justify his cost. Heck, he produced 9 TDs in a season where Tomlinson was busy setting the single-season scoring record! He led all TEs in both TDs and yardage, too- a feat that's only happened 4 times since 1990 (once by Gates himself, twice by Gonzo, once by Sharpe).

Which is more or less meaningless IMO. What's meaningful is HOW MUCH he led - scratch that, even that's not all that important - what's really meaningful is how much one thinks he will lead all other TEs by this year.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Take the Stud wide and then pick up Vernon Davis later

 

[BigRed]

Take the Stud wide and then pick up Vernon Davis later

because......

 

[BigRed]

Heap's ADP is #58 right now, while Chambers' is #72, over a full round later. The two WRs that are going immediately before and after Heap are Santana Moss and Reggie Brown, and the two WRs going immediately before and after Antonio Gates are Roy Williams and Anquan Boldin. The better comparison, therefore is either Roy Williams + Heap vs. Santana Moss + Gates (using the WRs immediately before the two TEs), or Anquan Boldin + Heap vs. Reggie Brown + Gates.

OK that's about right. Hmm - w/slightly revised guesstimates (reasonable tho I think):Gates: 900/10/80S Moss: 1000/7/70Heap: 800/6/70R Wms: 1200/8/85The Gates combo comes out barely ahead.

 

[Flexmaster]

Man I guess I REALLY lucked out based on reading this.

We start QB 2RB 2WR 1 flex TE K Def

In my $$$$ league I kept MJD for a 12th round pick this year and I got Steve Smith and Chad Johnson at the 1.12/2.01 turn, picked up Caddy and Gates at the 3/4 turn and got Santana Moss at 5.12 and Joey Galloway at 9.12.

My league knows where to send the $1100 top prize already from last year.

 

[Tampa Buc]

I just wanted to post this for all you guys liking Gates as a high pick. I just started an Antsports $ draft PPR and the guy in the 12 spot took S. Smith and Gates. This gives him a shot at Caddy, Lynch, McCallister, or Peterson at his next picks. Just curious what you all thought. All I know is mock drafts be dammed.

 

[SSOG]

I just wanted to post this for all you guys liking Gates as a high pick. I just started an Antsports $ draft PPR and the guy in the 12 spot took S. Smith and Gates. This gives him a shot at Caddy, Lynch, McCallister, or Peterson at his next picks. Just curious what you all thought. All I know is mock drafts be dammed.

I hate this move. No way does Gates deserve to go #13 overall. The top tiers of RBs are too large this season, and the dropoff is too steep, to have a shot at one and not grab him. I'm as rabid of a Gates supporter as you'll find around these parts, but that's just silly. It sounds like someone fell in love with the possible value that Gates presented and forgot that he only presented that value at his current draft position.

 

[Spearchucker Jones]

I like the idea of passing on "stud WR" and go with Gates then pick up a non "stud WR" the next round. WHY? Because the chances of a standout top tier STUD like Gates, Tomilinson, P. Manning deviating from their projected totals are much less likely than it is for a #2nd tier WR deviating from his totals.

Also there are a number of quality WR's that go undrafted year and are available through the waiver wire. You cant say the same thing about the tight end position. So if the math by a previous poster sez: Gates + S. Moss is near equal to Heap + Roy Williams, then to me its an absolute no brainer get Gates 1st then come back and fill the WR's out. If its the same thing then give me the 1 player who is least likely to deviate from the projections.

 

[BigRed]

I like the idea of passing on "stud WR" and go with Gates then pick up a non "stud WR" the next round. WHY? Because the chances of a standout top tier STUD like Gates, Tomilinson, P. Manning deviating from their projected totals are much less likely than it is for a #2nd tier WR deviating from his totals.

You seem to have forgotten that a 2d tier WR to go along w/Gates (vs taking a top WR and 2d tier TE) is what this thread is about....

Also there are a number of quality WR's that go undrafted year and are available through the waiver wire. You cant say the same thing about the tight end position.

Generally true. Course by then you may have already lost games thanks at least in part due to insufficient WR play, not to mention there is far from any guarantee you'll get that guy vs someone else in your league.