JGalligan
Footballguy
Before we get started, let’s get a nice, quick disclaimer out of the way. If you’re going to go into this little research topic I’ve undertaken wanting to come out of it with something concrete and substantially useful, than I’m not sure you should keep reading. I’ve compiled some data (once again, in thanks to the wonderful and happy-giggles inducing Game Log Dominator) dating back to 2002 where I calculated the average season for a wide receivers during each yearly level of their experience. The experience range went from rookie year to the 7th year because after that the total percentage of players who were diesel enough to continue playing that far dropped significantly. I also only included the players who played in at least SIX games and were targeted at least 10 times.
So, if that doesn’t get your oven going than you might want to go read a start em, sit em thread. If random and potentially obsessive analytical data that could give you a minor edge on scouting WR’s for you fantasy teams next year intrigues you, than please, read on!
Really quickly, the main drive behind the whole thing was for me to find out if it was really true that the third year of play for a WR really is the ‘breakout year’ or not. In addition to that, I just wanted to see if I could note any significant changes from year to year that may be able to help us target possible WR’s for the future with even MORE information than before.
But before we get into a discussion about what was found, let’s take a look at the average stats for each particular year of experience, followed by my best attempt at trying to explain to you in words what’s going on:
-------------------------------------------------------------
The First Year: “Welcome to the NFL Rookie”
Players sampled: 103
Average statistics: 48.9 targets, 26.9 receptions, 366.1 yards and 2.3 TD’s
It is common knowledge that the wide receiver position is said to be one of the toughest to step into and learn from a rookies perspective. This is due to the speed of the game, the intricacy of the play calling and the fact that they’re just not in Kansas anymore, Toto. (Kansas being the college game. Not funny? Yeah, that’s what I figured…)The average stat line for a rookie WR tells the tale of a talented player who gets some looks but isn’t featured in the teams overall game plan too much. At least not until they learn the game some more.
The Second Year: Productive improvement
Players sampled: 137
Average statistics: 54.8 targets, 30.6 receptions, 429.5 yards and 2.6 TD’s
The second year is generally regarded as the one in between the rookie year and the ‘breakout’ third year of play. Changes from the first year to the second don’t appear to be eye poppingly different. There are improvements in each of the documented categories, but nothing that will lend us some proof to the rumored ‘leap’ year. That’s coming up shortly, though...
The Third Year: First part of a breakout
Players sampled: 126
Average statistics: 65.6 targets, 37.7 receptions, 514.4 yards and 3.0 TD’s
Hello!While it doesn’t really look like it if you just look at the two side by side, the third year does have the biggest amount of change from year to year out of all of the yearly levels. On average, the third year for a WR is the year in which they make the biggest leap in terms of targets, receptions, yards AND TD’s. However, very, VERY close behind it is the improvements reached in the fourth year as well. Please note that I just capitalized that second very.
What does it all mean? Don’t worry, we’ll get to it in due time friend.
The Fourth Year: Aaaaand the second part
Players sampled: 113
Average statistics: 73.4 targets, 42.1 receptions, 568.4 yards and 3.2 TD’s
Other than the third year, the fourth year for a wide receiver held host to the next largest jump in productivity. By now, the stat line for the wide out tells the tale of a player who’s being targeted quite a bit on offense and is also cashing in on those targets for a fairly impressive amount of receptions, yards and TD’s.It doesn’t get a lot better after the fourth year for many of the fourth year wide receivers however…
The Fifth Year: Origins of a decline
Players sampled: 92
Average statistics: 77.3 targets, 44.5 receptions, 602.1 yards and 3.5 TD’s
Although the fifth year continues the trend and shows progress in all of the statistical categories, the amount of wide receivers who continue their careers begins to take a dip here during the fifth year. For those of the wide receivers who reach the fifth year and continue onward, this will be the last year in which they will see progressive improvement in their stats on average for a little bit.
The Sixth Year: An undeniable drop-off
Players sampled: 72
Average statistics: 73.6 targets, 42.0 receptions, 553.9 yards and 3.4 TD’s
Not only does the sixth year cause (on average) the largest drop off in the active player department, but the average statistic line of the wide receiver also takes a nosedive. All of the statistics that were measured saw a decline in productivity. Although to be fair, the average touchdown amount BARELY dropped from the previous year. But it still dropped, so… there you go.
The Seventh Year: Rewards to all who’ve survived
Players sampled: 54
Average statistics: 90.0 targets, 52.9 receptions, 703.8 yards and 4.2 TD’s
Although the players who reach a seventh year actively playing as a wide receiver in the NFL again takes a drop from the previous year, the average production SKYROCKETS upward. Seriously, take a look at the sixth year and seventh year stat lines. It’s pretty ridiculous when you take into account the amounts of progression from all of the other previous years.I suppose it makes sense though, since the players who usually reach a seventh year in the NFL playing as a WR usually have their stuff together and are healthy enough to string on even more years after that.
-------------------------------------------------------------
While I was originally going to include all the rest of the experience year levels, I decided against it since the whole idea behind this whole thing was to spot possible trends of a “breakout year.” Since you’ve likely been scratching your head and wondering exactly what you just read – at least in regards to any of it making some good old fashioned sense – let’s bust out our good friend the bullet system to summarize everything that the statistical data has shown us. • The year with the most improvement (or ‘breakout’ year if you’d prefer) was unsurprisingly, the third year. However, a more realistic statement could be created by throwing the idea of one breakout year out the window and stating that the third AND fourth years in a wide receivers career will usually show the most improvement.
• The biggest decline in active WR’s came AFTER the fourth and fifth years. They still put up some respectable stats on average, but the number of them that manage to do so is drastically reduced than the previous amounts.
• The biggest decline that was noticed in actual statistical output was during a wide receivers sixth year. All of the categories (targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns) took a dip during this year.
• For the amount of players who manage to stick around for a seventh year in the league, there is a DRASTIC rebound of productivity in the document stat categories.
Did that make sense? Well I hope it did, because I really don’t want the time I wasted on researching all of this to go to waste. Oh well, at least its making sense in my head – and that’s really all that matters, right? No?
I’ll try and put together a nice set of examples to edit in here at the end if everyone would like. We shall see. Feel free to add any comments about the information or my possible lack of actual mathematical and statistical competency in your replies!
Unrelated sidenote: To everyone who participates in my props and over/under pick em contest, I'll be getting the updated Week 14 post for that out later on tonight -- just so you know I'm not slacking!
So, if that doesn’t get your oven going than you might want to go read a start em, sit em thread. If random and potentially obsessive analytical data that could give you a minor edge on scouting WR’s for you fantasy teams next year intrigues you, than please, read on!
Really quickly, the main drive behind the whole thing was for me to find out if it was really true that the third year of play for a WR really is the ‘breakout year’ or not. In addition to that, I just wanted to see if I could note any significant changes from year to year that may be able to help us target possible WR’s for the future with even MORE information than before.
But before we get into a discussion about what was found, let’s take a look at the average stats for each particular year of experience, followed by my best attempt at trying to explain to you in words what’s going on:
-------------------------------------------------------------
The First Year: “Welcome to the NFL Rookie”
Players sampled: 103
Average statistics: 48.9 targets, 26.9 receptions, 366.1 yards and 2.3 TD’s
It is common knowledge that the wide receiver position is said to be one of the toughest to step into and learn from a rookies perspective. This is due to the speed of the game, the intricacy of the play calling and the fact that they’re just not in Kansas anymore, Toto. (Kansas being the college game. Not funny? Yeah, that’s what I figured…)The average stat line for a rookie WR tells the tale of a talented player who gets some looks but isn’t featured in the teams overall game plan too much. At least not until they learn the game some more.
The Second Year: Productive improvement
Players sampled: 137
Average statistics: 54.8 targets, 30.6 receptions, 429.5 yards and 2.6 TD’s
The second year is generally regarded as the one in between the rookie year and the ‘breakout’ third year of play. Changes from the first year to the second don’t appear to be eye poppingly different. There are improvements in each of the documented categories, but nothing that will lend us some proof to the rumored ‘leap’ year. That’s coming up shortly, though...
The Third Year: First part of a breakout
Players sampled: 126
Average statistics: 65.6 targets, 37.7 receptions, 514.4 yards and 3.0 TD’s
Hello!While it doesn’t really look like it if you just look at the two side by side, the third year does have the biggest amount of change from year to year out of all of the yearly levels. On average, the third year for a WR is the year in which they make the biggest leap in terms of targets, receptions, yards AND TD’s. However, very, VERY close behind it is the improvements reached in the fourth year as well. Please note that I just capitalized that second very.
What does it all mean? Don’t worry, we’ll get to it in due time friend.
The Fourth Year: Aaaaand the second part
Players sampled: 113
Average statistics: 73.4 targets, 42.1 receptions, 568.4 yards and 3.2 TD’s
Other than the third year, the fourth year for a wide receiver held host to the next largest jump in productivity. By now, the stat line for the wide out tells the tale of a player who’s being targeted quite a bit on offense and is also cashing in on those targets for a fairly impressive amount of receptions, yards and TD’s.It doesn’t get a lot better after the fourth year for many of the fourth year wide receivers however…
The Fifth Year: Origins of a decline
Players sampled: 92
Average statistics: 77.3 targets, 44.5 receptions, 602.1 yards and 3.5 TD’s
Although the fifth year continues the trend and shows progress in all of the statistical categories, the amount of wide receivers who continue their careers begins to take a dip here during the fifth year. For those of the wide receivers who reach the fifth year and continue onward, this will be the last year in which they will see progressive improvement in their stats on average for a little bit.
The Sixth Year: An undeniable drop-off
Players sampled: 72
Average statistics: 73.6 targets, 42.0 receptions, 553.9 yards and 3.4 TD’s
Not only does the sixth year cause (on average) the largest drop off in the active player department, but the average statistic line of the wide receiver also takes a nosedive. All of the statistics that were measured saw a decline in productivity. Although to be fair, the average touchdown amount BARELY dropped from the previous year. But it still dropped, so… there you go.
The Seventh Year: Rewards to all who’ve survived
Players sampled: 54
Average statistics: 90.0 targets, 52.9 receptions, 703.8 yards and 4.2 TD’s
Although the players who reach a seventh year actively playing as a wide receiver in the NFL again takes a drop from the previous year, the average production SKYROCKETS upward. Seriously, take a look at the sixth year and seventh year stat lines. It’s pretty ridiculous when you take into account the amounts of progression from all of the other previous years.I suppose it makes sense though, since the players who usually reach a seventh year in the NFL playing as a WR usually have their stuff together and are healthy enough to string on even more years after that.
-------------------------------------------------------------
While I was originally going to include all the rest of the experience year levels, I decided against it since the whole idea behind this whole thing was to spot possible trends of a “breakout year.” Since you’ve likely been scratching your head and wondering exactly what you just read – at least in regards to any of it making some good old fashioned sense – let’s bust out our good friend the bullet system to summarize everything that the statistical data has shown us. • The year with the most improvement (or ‘breakout’ year if you’d prefer) was unsurprisingly, the third year. However, a more realistic statement could be created by throwing the idea of one breakout year out the window and stating that the third AND fourth years in a wide receivers career will usually show the most improvement.
• The biggest decline in active WR’s came AFTER the fourth and fifth years. They still put up some respectable stats on average, but the number of them that manage to do so is drastically reduced than the previous amounts.
• The biggest decline that was noticed in actual statistical output was during a wide receivers sixth year. All of the categories (targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns) took a dip during this year.
• For the amount of players who manage to stick around for a seventh year in the league, there is a DRASTIC rebound of productivity in the document stat categories.
Did that make sense? Well I hope it did, because I really don’t want the time I wasted on researching all of this to go to waste. Oh well, at least its making sense in my head – and that’s really all that matters, right? No?
I’ll try and put together a nice set of examples to edit in here at the end if everyone would like. We shall see. Feel free to add any comments about the information or my possible lack of actual mathematical and statistical competency in your replies!
Unrelated sidenote: To everyone who participates in my props and over/under pick em contest, I'll be getting the updated Week 14 post for that out later on tonight -- just so you know I'm not slacking!
Last edited by a moderator:
I think it'd be even more interesting if the same players were tracked over a certain period of time.
Getting this info. would really be the "holy grail" for us fantasy geeks.
PROBABLY true, but not proven here.
Not even close to proven here. The numbers go up because below average WR's are weeded out. Since this study shows only the average among the group, the average goes up as poor performers are released.If a player hasn't broken out by year four, he very likely never will. Can you think of even one WR who went from "average" to top ten AFTER having played 9-10 years?Me either.
PROBABLY true, but not proven here.
Not even close to proven here. The numbers go up because below average WR's are weeded out. Since this study shows only the average among the group, the average goes up as poor performers are released.If a player hasn't broken out by year four, he very likely never will. Can you think of even one WR who went from "average" to top ten AFTER having played 9-10 years?Me either.
