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Bad Ball recievers (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Gatorman
- Start date
I dont think receptions per target really tells us everything. What are the routes? Obviously the guys running 50 slants has an easier time than the guy running 50 go patterns. Dane Looker plays in the slot and averaged 10.3 y/c last year. Issac Bruce average 14.6 but is way down the list. Is Looker the better catcher or is he just closer to the QB?
Just how bad is the QB? If you have JP Losman opening up duck hunting season or Kyle Boller winging the ball 10 feet over your head, that doesnt really reflect on the WRs hands either.
I think this conversation really reinforces how special Chris Carter was. The guy caught _everything_, so much so that if he ever touched a ball and didnt catch it, id find myself shocked and start irrationally wondering if his hands were overrated. Meanwhile you rarely even raise an eyebrow when todays stars (ahem, TO) drop catchable balls routinely.
Just how bad is the QB? If you have JP Losman opening up duck hunting season or Kyle Boller winging the ball 10 feet over your head, that doesnt really reflect on the WRs hands either.
I think this conversation really reinforces how special Chris Carter was. The guy caught _everything_, so much so that if he ever touched a ball and didnt catch it, id find myself shocked and start irrationally wondering if his hands were overrated. Meanwhile you rarely even raise an eyebrow when todays stars (ahem, TO) drop catchable balls routinely.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
This sounds like another receiveer I'm familiar with. I won't name him outright and defame the guy, so I'll give it to you Wheel of Fortune style. If you can figure it out, more power to you.PL_XICO BUR_ESS
Have at it.
2112
Footballguy
I think BnB may be on to something here. The way to measure this would seem to be "greatest % difference on same team/same QB"If Delhomme or whomover is throwing ducks around - who catches them better? If Smith is 30% better than other CAR receivers; and Ward is 11% better than his teammates, this should give us a method to ranking the best bad-ball catchers per team.
Then you're looking at a list of 32 guys; couple that with the completion percentages (or QB ratings) of their respective QBs, and we might be on to a formula.
Don't know what that really does for ya, but hey it's a formula.
Kinda like the QB rating.
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TO is a big on mouth but small on receptions.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
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Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
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sirfumblesalot
Footballguy
Can I buy a vowel?
There's no way to even come close to measuring it with stats, unless you have a stat called "bad ball catches."Stats Inc. used to categorize every incompletion as either a drop, bad pass, or pass broken up by defender. That gave a decent indication of sure-handedness. You just look at drops per target. But even that stat doesn't tell you anything about who's catching bad balls as opposed to good ones. For that, you just really have to watch the games (or at least highlights).
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Go ahead...
Strongly disagree. Sure, stats don't tell the full story, but they're a much better indicator then you're giving credit for. Case in point is Steve Smith. On a percentage basis he out catches the other WRs on his team and he out paced Muhammad from the year before. Add to that his overall ranking in the league and what our eyes (and even Capella) tell us about Delhomme passes and have a good candidate.
Good candidate for what? How many bad balls did Smith catch last year, and how bad were they compared to the ones Lloyd caught?
Smith caught 68% last year. As I recall Moose was around 60% the year before. I'd say he caught about 10 more bad balls then Moose would have.Gardner 56%, Proehl 47%, and Colbert 45%. Doubtful that Delhomme's throws are significantly worse to all three of these guys then Smith.
I like stats as much as the next guy, but I also know when they are totally useless. Using receptions per target to identify the best players at catching bad balls is one of those times.
If you want to make the case for Steve Smith (and I'm quite sure you can), name some specific catches in specific games that were spectacular, acrobatic grabs that other players wouldn't have been able to make.
If you want to make the case for Steve Smith (and I'm quite sure you can), name some specific catches in specific games that were spectacular, acrobatic grabs that other players wouldn't have been able to make.
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Brandon Lloyd can't even be in this discussion. He's not even the best "Bad ball catcher" ON HIS OWN TEAM (and it's not even CLOSE).Brandon Lloyd- 44% catch rate.
Arnaz Battle- 59% catch rate.
In fact, given the quality of his quarterbacking (or lack there of), I think Battle gets *strong* consideration for best in the league at catching lame ducks.
44% catch rate != obvious choice.
Everyone sees that ridiculous matrix-style sideline grab he made in TO's last season in San Fran and that's all they tend to remember about Lloyd. Ridiculous catch, but no consistancy.Holt: 62.8%Rod Smith 68.3%
Good old reliable Rod. Very few balls will come within 4 yards of him that he doesn't wind up with one way or another. I remember a great catch he made in the end zone two years ago. He dived, reach out and caught it end-on with one hand, landed and rolled through a somersault (somehow managing to keep the ball extended away from his body and clearly 2 feet above the ground at all times for the ref's benefit), and came to a rest propped up on his neck holding the ball (still held end-on) straight up in the air. It's like he was so confident that he was going to catch the ball that he just devoted all of his effort to making the referee's job in ruling it a TD as easy as possible.Between Rod, Ed, and Shannon, Denver's had a lot of suuuurehanded receivers recently.
Very
I hate this tendency for everyone to think that every single elite WR is among the best in the NFL in every category of WRing. Harrison isn't a great runner after the catch (he always ducks out of bounds to avoid the hit). Randy Moss isn't very consistant and is an apathetic blocker. Terrell Owens has horrible hands and isn't the greatest of deep threats. It's not like every elite WR has mastered every single aspect of WRing and is therefore above criticism. They're just so good at what they do well (running routes, going deep, and running after the catch, respectively) that they more than make up for their shortcomings.To wit: Terrell Owens caught 51% of the passes thrown his way last season. In 2003 (the last season when Owens wasn't the #1 in Philly), James Thrash caught 53% of the passes headed his way. Yeah, Owens faced tougher coverages... but still... James Thrash...
It's not just one catch. He's done it a few times in each of the past few seasons. More than anyone else has that I can think of off the top of my head.
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That. percentage. means. nothing. How many of those balls were catchable? Oh, no answer? How many hit him in the hands and he dropped? No answer? We are talking about bad ball catchers, not recievers who had passes winged over their heads into the 3rd row. Battle had the good fortune to play 3 of his 8 starts with a competant QB at the helm. Lloyd suffered through Alex Smiths entire tenure as well as having the misfortune of being his 'go-to' guy. Jerry Rice couldnt have caught 60% of Smiths targets.
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IMO, using receptions/target to evaulate a receiver's ability to catch bad balls is somewhere between using yards/carry to evaluate a running back's speed and using yards/attempt to evaluate a quarterback's arm strength. If you're not allowed to watch any games, using those stats might be better than using the Magic 8 Head, although probably not by much. But watching the games and using your own eyes would be far preferable.
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KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
He only caught TDs.Signed,
Buddy Ryan
LawFitz
Footballguy
Larry Fitzgerald by a good margin. Kid is sick!
BTW, Curry did rupture his achilles in college, though I want to say it was his other leg. I believe he ruptured his left one in college and his right one twice in the pros. Poor guy. I really hope he takes the time to fully heal before making another comeback attempt. I really think he unneccesarily rushed his comeback last season.
BTW, Curry did rupture his achilles in college, though I want to say it was his other leg. I believe he ruptured his left one in college and his right one twice in the pros. Poor guy. I really hope he takes the time to fully heal before making another comeback attempt. I really think he unneccesarily rushed his comeback last season.
I agree that Chambers and Lloyd lead the league in highlight reel "how on earth did he come up with that" catches. With that said, a player who routinely catches bad passes in an unspectacular manner is better than a receiver who occasionally catches bad passes in a truly spectacular manner. I've seen Chambers enough to know that I wouldn't put him on MY list, since he is terribly inconsistant and misses a lot of makeable catches (both bad throws and good).
Weeks 16 and 17 (both starts by Smith)- Battle catches 7 for 89 and Lloyd catches 6 for 66. Small sample size, but Battle was better at catching with Smith in, despite coming off an injury.Also, Lloyd wasn't the "go-to-guy", it was definitely a 1a/1b relationship. Moreover, 3 more games with Alex Smith is *NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH* to explain away a 15% difference in catch%.
But this has nothing to do with who's better as a receiver -- just who's better at catching balls that other WRs wouldn't be able to catch. If Orande Gadsden signed with the Texans tomorrow as training camp fodder, I'd list him in my top two or three in the category we're discussing, but he wouldn't be on my top 100 list as an overall receiver.
Dropping easy balls is totally irrelevant. I think we are talking about different things.
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I don't. There are a lot of catches that Chris Chambers shouldn't make... that he doesn't wind up making.For every difficult catch he makes there are a dozen difficult catches he doesn't make. I'd take the receiver who routinely makes difficult catches.
Let's say that there's a difficulty scale from 1 to 10, with 1 being on the numbers and 10 being "only if you're Agent Smith from the Matrix". I would say the better "bad-ball catcher" would be a guy who makes 50% of the 8s and none of the 10s rather than a guy who makes 5% of the 8s and 5% of the 10s.
I can't comment on this until I know how many of the 9s they each catch.Seriously, now that we're defining the problem better, I hope it is evident why the simple receptions-per-target stat is not very useful.
Regarding the 50%-0% guy or the 5%-5% guy, either one would each be a valid choice (as long as an 8 qualifies as being sufficiently difficult -- say, the average NFL WR would be at 3-5% or so). At that point it's subjective.
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Good god, couldnt you find a smaller sample size? For the record Battle was targeted 11 times (63.6% caught) to Lloyds 10 (66% caught) in those two weeks. By your definition Lloyd must be the better bad ball catcher! Bad example
5 games actually. When Battle only caught 32 balls all season i'd say thats significant.
Lloyd had 5 games with Smith. Battle had 2 games with Smith. That's a 3 game difference.Good god, couldnt you find a smaller sample size? For the record Battle was targeted 11 times (63.6% caught) to Lloyds 10 (66% caught) in those two weeks. By your definition Lloyd must be the better bad ball catcher! Bad example5 games actually. When Battle only caught 32 balls all season i'd say thats significant.
