What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Baseball Wagering (1 Viewer)

6 leans for today:

Bos +120

SD +132

Cincy Stl O 9.5

NYM/LA O 9

Fla.SF O 9

Tor/Balt O 10.5

I am playing both the cincy/stl over and the Tor/Balt over;

I am passing on Bos and SD;

may still play the other two overs depending

Off to Coach T Ball where the over is always in play! :lmao:

GLTA
Click to expand...
missed the first pitch of tor/balt but cincy/stl -2 units :thumbup: :thumbup:
 
Ok, so maybe this sports betting stuff isn't as easy as it looks. I've made 10 bets of 1 unit each in the last 5 days and I'm down 4 units.

There's gotta be a way to make money doing this. I suppose it would help if I actually knew something about baseball.
Click to expand...
Update: After today, I have now made 18 bets of 1 unit each in the last 9 days, and now I'm only down 3.5 units. It helped that I won all 3 of my bets today because everything left in my account was on the line! (I only started with 10 units to see if I'm going to like this or not.)Still, with an ROI of -19% and a pathetic win rate of 39%, I'm gonna need to find something that works or I'll be re-loading my account soon.
Click to expand...
Update: Since I started on 5/16:

24-23 (51%)

+2.5U

ROI: +5.34%

If I was ONLY betting on the home dogs in RS's Dog System my stats would look like this since 5/16:

11-6 (65%)

+6.5U

ROI: +37.94%

I may stick with betting on the home dogs in the Dog System for a while, as it looks to be profitable.
Click to expand...
Update: Ok, I've been on a nice run using the dog system:

38-30 (56%)

+11.2U

ROI: 18.5%

This leads me to a question. Let's say I started with $1000 and wagered in $100 units. Would the following be a bad strategy? Once I'm up to $1200, increase my wagers to $120. Then, when I hit $1500 increase my wagers to $150. THEN, when I hit $2000 increase my wagers to $200. This is what I've been doing in an attempt to build a bankroll. I'm sure my risk of ruin is huge, but I started with money I could afford to lose so I'm willing to take some chances.

So far it's paid off, as it only took me about 3 weeks to double my initial stake, but I'm still risking about 10% of my roll with every wager so I could be broke in 2 days if things turn around and go very badly. For example, I bet on 6 games today and have about 50% of my roll on the line.

My plan is that once I'm over $5000, I'll drop the bets back down to $100. Is there a rule of thumb for how many units you need in your bankroll to sustain a bad run? For example, in full ring limit poker they say you need to have at least 300 big bets. What's that number for sports wagering? Is it different for different sports?

 
The rule is ( correct me if I wrong here Hoard or MP) your bankroll should equal roughly 20 units. So, if you had $ 1000, your typical play should be 5% or $ 50.00;

I do not always follows this either :bag:

One thing I would tell you is not to raise your unit size just because you are on a hot streak as eventaully all streaks run cold, and when it does you will be giving your $ back quicker than when you made it.

GLTA

 
I now heed to the rul of using 1% of your BR for plays and at very most 2%. It's not a lot and not something most people follow, but especially during baseball season it keeps your variance in check.

By putting 10% of your roll on each play, you are bound to go broke sometime during the season. If I'm not mistake (I read it somewhere) over the course of the year your are going to go 0-10 two times even if your plays hit at a 52.3% rate, which is the breakeven point. Betting dogs in this system, likely yields a 45% win rate, therefore the likelyhood of you losing 10 straight is even greater. heck, if you lost 8 straight games you would have only 20% of your BR left.

It makes me wonder why people bet multiple units on baseball plays, there' just no rhyme or reason. Unless the price is way off and you are really getting the best of it, it makes no sense. Baseball is a grind em out game where the person who gets the best price wins. But people don't want to hear that.

Keep your units plays at 3% max - anything else and I'd be willing to bet you go bust sometime this baseball season.

 
Thanks Angry Beavers and MP for the bankroll feedback. Like I said, I'm trying to build a small bankroll quickly, so I'm taking some unusual risks right now by being willing to bet in 10% units. As I outlined, if and when I get up to $5000 I plan to back my units down to $100 (2%).

Rather than go broke, though, I am also considering reducing the unit size back down to $100 if I get back down to $1000. Probably not a good idea, but I'm looking for some way to keep from having to deposit more money any time soon.

Hopefully this run will just continue for another 4-5 weeks, and then I'll be over $5000 and can settle in for the long run.

Quit laughing. I can dream!

 
Thanks Angry Beavers and MP for the bankroll feedback. Like I said, I'm trying to build a small bankroll quickly, so I'm taking some unusual risks right now by being willing to bet in 10% units. As I outlined, if and when I get up to $5000 I plan to back my units down to $100 (2%).

Rather than go broke, though, I am also considering reducing the unit size back down to $100 if I get back down to $1000. Probably not a good idea, but I'm looking for some way to keep from having to deposit more money any time soon.

Hopefully this run will just continue for another 4-5 weeks, and then I'll be over $5000 and can settle in for the long run.

Quit laughing. I can dream!
Click to expand...
Hey, I am not laughing, it just is not likely. Good Luck - Hope you can do it. You have to be willing to lose big to win big. :popcorn:
 
I like Cincy and Pitt tonight.

Also might consider Dodgers and Anaheim....
Click to expand...
Only played Reds and the Pirates. Thank god for small favors. Griffey bailed me out last night for sure.I'm thinking about taking the Pirates again tonight.

I'm probably also going to look at the unders in the Minn/Sea and SFO/FLA games.

 
Hey Gentleman i am heading to Vegas on Thursday and I am Jacked to bet on some games:

Basketball, Baseball boxing, hockey.

What are some good strategies to make some good dough?

Can i find the lines in advance?

Any good tips :)

 
am I insane for liking Elarton +185 tonight?
Click to expand...
yes you are, but Elarton has nothing to do with it.
Click to expand...
:lmao: I think i'm going to parlay Erlarton with either Eric Milton or David Pauley. Reds are rolling and Carpenter just came off DL....I also think Boston takes a game from the Yanks and Wang is far from elite.

 
am I insane for liking Elarton +185 tonight?
Click to expand...
yes you are, but Elarton has nothing to do with it.
Click to expand...
:lmao: I think i'm going to parlay Erlarton with either Eric Milton or David Pauley. Reds are rolling and Carpenter just came off DL....I also think Boston takes a game from the Yanks and Wang is far from elite.
Click to expand...
Milton has had a couple nice outtings recently, I think he's due for a shelling. I have no confidence in that guy.
 
am I insane for liking Elarton +185 tonight?
Click to expand...
yes you are, but Elarton has nothing to do with it.
Click to expand...
:lmao: I think i'm going to parlay Erlarton with either Eric Milton or David Pauley. Reds are rolling and Carpenter just came off DL....I also think Boston takes a game from the Yanks and Wang is far from elite.
Click to expand...
Milton has had a couple nice outtings recently, I think he's due for a shelling. I have no confidence in that guy.
Click to expand...
good points...though I think I might back them all the same. This team is on fire.
 
Gimme Kerry Wood -1.5 +136 against the Stros tonight. Read my comments from yesterday about Zambrano and just hit the ditto button.

G'luck

 
Gimme Kerry Wood -1.5 +136 against the Stros tonight. Read my comments from yesterday about Zambrano and just hit the ditto button.

G'luck
Click to expand...
I went with Wood -126 and like your logic here.Tonight's Card - risking 1 Unit on each:

Chc Wood -126

Pitt Maholm +120

Phily Hamels -105

Min Liriano -107

$20 Parlay:

Wash Hill +158

Det Robertson +125

 
Like I said, ZITO is neato! :bag: He looked great last out, and has been sharp of late.

In his last 7 starts he's given up 3 runs ONCE...1 run 3 times...and 0 runs 3 times.

I'll take even money on that. :thumbup: 2 units.

 
Some very interesting lines tonight...

I liked Kazmir and Peavy but didn't play either. Wood also looked ok, and Liriano looks ok tonight.

Lines just seem off to me. :confused:

 
astros -.15 / laa -1.5

astros -1.5 / cincy -1.5

pair of 2 team parlays placed earlier, pay 8 and 10 to one.
Click to expand...
:eek: :eek: Get 'em, Cos!

I'm getting whacked. Parlay died with the Nationals. Sure am glad I backed off of the Reds. :hot:

F'n Cubs. I'll never bet that team again as long as I live.

Still have...

Pitt +120

Phils -105

Min -107

added a parlay...

Florida

Dodgers

$20 to win $108

 
astros -.15 / laa -1.5

astros -1.5 / cincy -1.5

pair of 2 team parlays placed earlier, pay 8 and 10 to one.
Click to expand...
:eek: :eek: Get 'em, Cos!

I'm getting whacked. Parlay died with the Nationals. Sure am glad I backed off of the Reds. :hot:

F'n Cubs. I'll never bet that team again as long as I live.

Still have...

Pitt +120

Phils -105

Min -107

added a parlay...

Florida

Dodgers

$20 to win $108
Click to expand...
Cha CHING - 30 wins 270
 
am I insane for liking Elarton +185 tonight?
Click to expand...
yes you are, but Elarton has nothing to do with it.
Click to expand...
:lmao: I think i'm going to parlay Erlarton with either Eric Milton or David Pauley. Reds are rolling and Carpenter just came off DL....I also think Boston takes a game from the Yanks and Wang is far from elite.
Click to expand...
Milton has had a couple nice outtings recently, I think he's due for a shelling. I have no confidence in that guy.
Click to expand...
good points...though I think I might back them all the same. This team is on fire.
Click to expand...
Milton pitches another gem, color me surprised. Edit: Just saw you backed off it. Hope I had no influence on that... :unsure:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
astros -.15 / laa -1.5

astros -1.5 / cincy -1.5

pair of 2 team parlays placed earlier, pay 8 and 10 to one.
Click to expand...
:eek: :eek: Get 'em, Cos!

I'm getting whacked. Parlay died with the Nationals. Sure am glad I backed off of the Reds. :hot:

F'n Cubs. I'll never bet that team again as long as I live.

Still have...

Pitt +120

Phils -105

Min -107

added a parlay...

Florida

Dodgers

$20 to win $108
Click to expand...
Cha CHING - 30 wins 270
Click to expand...
Nice :thumbup:
 
Have OVER 10 -115 in the Oak/Cle game.

I'm going to punch Marco Scutaro in the #### after this game ends. :hot: :hot: :hot:
Click to expand...
This is the worst baseball i've ever watched tracked on the innernets in my life. Oakland and Cleveland is a dhick.
 
Sitting here trying to find someone to couple with Santana, who is high at -190 with my guy, guys.

I like having the first leg of a par out of the way, with a decent payout ahead on one game...which is what I think will happen here.

Watcha got?

 
I now heed to the rul of using 1% of your BR for plays and at very most 2%. It's not a lot and not something most people follow, but especially during baseball season it keeps your variance in check.

By putting 10% of your roll on each play, you are bound to go broke sometime during the season. If I'm not mistake (I read it somewhere) over the course of the year your are going to go 0-10 two times even if your plays hit at a 52.3% rate, which is the breakeven point. Betting dogs in this system, likely yields a 45% win rate, therefore the likelyhood of you losing 10 straight is even greater. heck, if you lost 8 straight games you would have only 20% of your BR left.

It makes me wonder why people bet multiple units on baseball plays, there' just no rhyme or reason. Unless the price is way off and you are really getting the best of it, it makes no sense. Baseball is a grind em out game where the person who gets the best price wins. But people don't want to hear that.

Keep your units plays at 3% max - anything else and I'd be willing to bet you go bust sometime this baseball season.
Click to expand...
:wall: You still don't get why people don't like you, do you?
 
I now heed to the rul of using 1% of your BR for plays and at very most 2%.  It's not a lot and not something most people follow, but especially during baseball season it keeps your variance in check. 

By putting 10% of your roll on each play, you are bound to go broke sometime during the season.  If I'm not mistake (I read it somewhere) over the course of the year your are going to go 0-10 two times even if your plays hit at a 52.3% rate, which is the breakeven point.  Betting dogs in this system, likely yields a 45% win rate, therefore the likelyhood of you losing 10 straight is even greater.  heck, if you lost 8 straight games you would have only 20% of your BR left. 

It makes me wonder why people bet multiple units on baseball plays, there' just no rhyme or reason.  Unless the price is way off and you are really getting the best of it, it makes no sense.  Baseball is a grind em out game where the person who gets the best price wins.  But people don't want to hear that. 

Keep your units plays at 3% max - anything else and I'd be willing to bet you go bust sometime this baseball season.
Click to expand...
:wall: You still don't get why people don't like you, do you?
Click to expand...
where the hell did you get those sigs? :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: :X :X :X

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Tonycarpenter
Questions about players Position Eligibility 2025 and beyond specific to my roster
Replies
2
Views
1K
FDASv2.0
FDASv2.0
L
Ohtani Contract & Why Baseball is Terrible
Replies
9
Views
1K
Eephus
Eephus
Tonycarpenter
12 Team 15 Keeper Who do you keep
Replies
16
Views
1K
Tonycarpenter
Tonycarpenter

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top