Beanie Wells (1 Viewer)

[Ariakis]

FBG's Top 250 Forward has Beanie in the McCluster and Bernard Scott range of RB's going forward.

This seems ODD to me.

Either project him at 0 for the rest of the year and advise owners to sell at all cost or project 0's for a few weeks and then back to RB2 with matchup RB1 value down the stretch.

Projecting him at 3-5 PPG after he returns just doesn't make sense.

 

[The Jerk]

Beanie Wells value going forward

 

[The Jerk]

from the 10th or so post in that thread...

The #51 ranking seems to be based on Wells missing 3-4 games and not returning to full health the rest of the season.

If Wells gets back for Week 9 and has a decent week, he will almost certainly be in the top 20 and possibly in the top 15 RBs when the next Top 250 is published.

Although Wells has a bad reputation for getting hurt, any player can get hurt any week. The bigger concern I have is the suggestion that Wells does not play well at 85%.

At fantasypros.com, the rest of season RB ratings show that the range for Wells among "experts" is as high as 12 and as low as 51 (ding ding ding), with the consensus rank (which I suppose is the mean) placing Wells at #18.

 

[BroadwayG]

FBG's Top 250 Forward has Beanie in the McCluster and Bernard Scott range of RB's going forward.This seems ODD to me.Either project him at 0 for the rest of the year and advise owners to sell at all cost or project 0's for a few weeks and then back to RB2 with matchup RB1 value down the stretch.Projecting him at 3-5 PPG after he returns just doesn't make sense.

Please list your FF credentials so I can determine whether to listen to you or the site.

 

[jon_mx]

I have McCluster....who is going to trade me Beanie?.....answer, no one. FBG may end up being right, but right now Beanie has far more value than McCluster.

 

[BroadwayG]

I have McCluster....who is going to trade me Beanie?.....answer, no one. FBG may end up being right, but right now Beanie has far more value than McCluster.

You are making many assumptions that the mathematical top 250 list doesn't account for in your valuation.

 

[Ariakis]

I have McCluster....who is going to trade me Beanie?.....answer, no one. FBG may end up being right, but right now Beanie has far more value than McCluster.

You are making many assumptions that the mathematical top 250 list doesn't account for in your valuation.

Assuming BroadwayG isn't trolling ... Jon_MX summed it up pretty well. What RB would you trade Beanie for? I'd rather hold and risk even a single healthy game than give him up for fodder.If you are POSITIVE he's out for the year then now is indeed the time to sell for anything you can get and you'd think FBG insider strategy articles this week would be preaching that.So really the lack of a recommondation in subscription articles means that they've been playing it safe and that's my gripe.I suppose noone knows for sure but I suppose ranking him with McCluster is a back door sell statement without getting called out for it if he plays in week 9 and goes back to RB2 value in under a week. Doing it this way makes the Trade Dominator and such less viable in rating "value" if the perceived value is still 1-2 weeks but FBG's is taking a firm stand that he won't be startable all year.

 

[Ariakis]

Given the latest news from RW obviously worst case is still a risk but I still am not thrilled with a 51 rank ... either put him out 1-2 weeks or just put him at RB200 and send out a blast telling us to sell now. The Lineup Dominator kind of did the same thing with Andre Johnson with a bunch of 5-10 PPG rankings for weeks 8-10 until recently.I'm tempted to "buy".

Beanie Wells - RB - Cardinals Beanie Wells (knee) returned to a limited practice on Thursday.Coach Ken Whisenhunt expects Wells do even more work on Friday. Beanie is talking as if he will play this week. "Right now, he feels like he should be able to go against the Baltimore Ravens," said ESPN's Adam Schefter. While the arrow is pointing up for a player who has been slow to heal in the past, Wells is a shaky fantasy option against the league's top defense Related: Alfonso SmithSource: Kent Somers on Twitter Oct 27 - 4:38 PM

 

[jon_mx]

Beanie is going to be a top 15 RB this week and someone will have egg on their face.

 

[red]

you can't trust beanie....it was a couple of weeks ago when he said he was definitely going to play and then he didn't. i know GTD are a part of all this and players are optimistic, but this just tells me that beanie is sometimes too optimistic and we have to take his comments with a grain a salt. add this to the fact that they're playing baltimore, and i'm looking elsewhere for fantasy production. too much risk of a gooseegg on game day.

 

[GoBirds]

I hope he sits out this week vs the Ravens as I wouldnt have the stones to play him anyway.

 

[yrforyg]

has anyone ever evaluated bob henry's forward rankings for accuracy?

 

[BroadwayG]

Assuming BroadwayG isn't trolling ... Jon_MX summed it up pretty well. What RB would you trade Beanie for? I'd rather hold and risk even a single healthy game than give him up for fodder.If you are POSITIVE he's out for the year then now is indeed the time to sell for anything you can get and you'd think FBG insider strategy articles this week would be preaching that.So really the lack of a recommondation in subscription articles means that they've been playing it safe and that's my gripe.I suppose noone knows for sure but I suppose ranking him with McCluster is a back door sell statement without getting called out for it if he plays in week 9 and goes back to RB2 value in under a week. Doing it this way makes the Trade Dominator and such less viable in rating "value" if the perceived value is still 1-2 weeks but FBG's is taking a firm stand that he won't be startable all year.

I'm not trolling. The top 250 is just a statistical list of expected future points. Some minor fudge factors are involved as there are a couple minor deviations from top to bottom.Beanie's future value right now is at its lowest because there are the most number of zero weeks calculated. His dead weight is the heaviest. Now a human can process this relatively quickly and say 'Hey, I have enough depth to absorb those zeroes until he's back to full strength. His value is much higher to me than Dexter McCluster.' But that's probably beyond the scope of the top 250 list's logic. The list is more like a full roster total points league. It doesn't have the capability to account for having Foster and Bradshaw as weekly starters and plugging in Greg Little at flex until Beanie comes back.Throwing further wrenches into Beanie's specific calculation is the indeterminate time he is out (if any). As his injury information becomes more clear, and those zeroes get wiped off, I am confident Beanie's future value will rise.

 

[Apple Jack]

Aren't those rankings based on projected points for the rest of the year? If so, what's the problem?

 

[cvnpoka]

Aren't those rankings based on projected points for the rest of the year? If so, what's the problem?

they have him scoring 52 points from here on out. he has 8 weeks left. thats an unduly harsh lookout. i get that they think he will miss many games from injury, but they are simultaneously suppressing the injury risk of almost all other players.

 

[sspunisher]

Well I just traded away James Starks for him in a dynasty so hopefully it's not that serious. I'd also definitely prefer he sit out vs Baltimore, just in case.

Frustrating that this happens right after his BYE though, when ideally he should be at his healthiest.

 

[The Jerk]

Maybe 83 yards and a TD against the Ravens will get him bumped into the 40s for rest-of-season rankings.

I don't understand why there could not have been an adjustment to a fairly high-profile player as the week progressed.

 

[HoTnickZ]

Maybe 83 yards and a TD against the Ravens will get him bumped into the 40s for rest-of-season rankings.I don't understand why there could not have been an adjustment to a fairly high-profile player as the week progressed.

Or maybe not. It seems this guy can't do anything positive without something apocalyptic leaking out soon after, making him virtually unmovable.

 

[zamboni]

Beanie said after the game that his knee is going to be an issue for the rest of the season - not good.

 

[The Jerk]

Beanie said after the game that his knee is going to be an issue for the rest of the season - not good.

I agree. It seems like at best the knee will limit his burst and/or agility. Still, I think the fact he played well this week against a stout run defense to be encouraging that he can possibly play through this issue better than he did in the past. It's at least possible that he's learning how to handle being 80% or so and accepting his limitations, focusing on what he can do rather than what he cannot do. Perhaps the best thing to do is plug him in every week and hope. There may be ups and downs, but his average production is still likely to be RB2 level as a floor. That's still reasonable value given his ADP.

 

[cvnpoka]

pretty much guaranteed he leaves the game early with an injury vs the juicy rams

 

[The Jerk]

pretty much guaranteed he leaves the game early with an injury vs the juicy rams

pre-emptive

 

[Grahamburn]

It strikes me as odd that so many people can be down on a guy with 7 TDs in 7 games.

 

[zamboni]

Beanie said after the game that his knee is going to be an issue for the rest of the season - not good.

I agree. It seems like at best the knee will limit his burst and/or agility. Still, I think the fact he played well this week against a stout run defense to be encouraging that he can possibly play through this issue better than he did in the past. It's at least possible that he's learning how to handle being 80% or so and accepting his limitations, focusing on what he can do rather than what he cannot do. Perhaps the best thing to do is plug him in every week and hope. There may be ups and downs, but his average production is still likely to be RB2 level as a floor. That's still reasonable value given his ADP.

Fair points. I guess you could say that most guys are hurt right now to some degree or another. How Wells is able to play, yes, well through it relative to others will be key.

 

[packersfan]

It strikes me as odd that so many people can be down on a guy with 7 TDs in 7 games.

I agree. He's been a Top 10 RB this season and he just had a strong fantasy game against a terrific Baltimore run defense. That he did without being 100% makes it even more impressive in my opinion. The threat of the injury worsening is something to keep an eye on but he's become a plug-and-play option in my opinion. He just keeps getting it done.

 

[cubbie5150]

It strikes me as odd that so many people can be down on a guy with 7 TDs in 7 games.

I'm just wondering how many have actually benefited from all 7 TDs. I'll admit my lack of trust has caused me to miss out on much of his production (@ Wash, ~90/1; vs NYG, ~130/3; @ Balt, ~80/1). I know.....that's my bad, but it's hard to trust a guy w/ his short history when he's constantly a GTD & in matchups that are supposedly difficult at best. I don't complain about his actual production; I just grumble about how hard it is to trust the guy. I know what's gonna happen: he'll be active next week vs StL, but won't finish the game. Final line will be something like 35/0, and I'll be again like I was w/ him week 7.

 

[Grahamburn]

It strikes me as odd that so many people can be down on a guy with 7 TDs in 7 games.

I'm just wondering how many have actually benefited from all 7 TDs. I'll admit my lack of trust has caused me to miss out on much of his production (@ Wash, ~90/1; vs NYG, ~130/3; @ Balt, ~80/1). I know.....that's my bad, but it's hard to trust a guy w/ his short history when he's constantly a GTD & in matchups that are supposedly difficult at best. I don't complain about his actual production; I just grumble about how hard it is to trust the guy. I know what's gonna happen: he'll be active next week vs StL, but won't finish the game. Final line will be something like 35/0, and I'll be again like I was w/ him week 7.

It was tought to start him against Baltimore. I didn't. Anyone that did was probably just out of other options. He's started for me in all of the other games where he's been active.However, he'd already shown an ability to be on the injury report and put up big numbers as he did in the game against the Giants. It was frustrating to see him leave against the Steelers though. I agree there. He was just starting to get it going when he left that game. Beanie has been outstanding this year. He's consistently putting up numbers on a bad team. The Cardinals have faced their tough stretch. That schedule lightens up a little bit from here on out.He's a top 10 option if the knee holds up.

 

[packersfan]

Beanie has been outstanding this year. He's consistently putting up numbers on a bad team.

Yup. I think we have to start giving credit to the Cardinals' offensive line. They can't pass block for squat but they do run block pretty well. The Ravens were loading up to stop Beanie and he was still getting nice runs. A lot of that is certainly about him and how good he is, but the line's doing well when he's on the field.

 

[Ariakis]

If I would have trusted Wells for his 3 TD game I'd be alone in 1st. I did go with him yesterday but only because my other options were literally garbage. I think at this point in the one league I have him if he plays I start him until he convinces me otherwise and he should remain ranked as a high upside RB2 (like Turner) until proven otherwise. I'm sure "insiders" will say to trade Wells but .. everyone knows he's hurt ... what are you going to get for him that's any better than a RB1/2 when he plays?

 

[zamboni]

He's a top 10 option if the knee holds up.

True, but can't use a font large enough for that "IF".Also depends whether the team can avoid falling behind, as his involvement in the passing game is Michael Turner-esque.

 

[jonboltz]

He's a top 10 option if the knee holds up.

True, but can't use a font large enough for that "IF".Also depends whether the team can avoid falling behind, as his involvement in the passing game is Michael Turner-esque.

They have been behind pretty much the entire year and that doesn't seem to have stopped him from producing.

 

[packersfan]

He's a top 10 option if the knee holds up.

True, but can't use a font large enough for that "IF".

You can say that about a large number of RBs, though, especially at this point of the season. McFadden, Gore, Bradshaw, Mathews, SJax and MJD are all top RBs this season who are either battling current injuries and/or have had injury issues within the last year that have sidelined them. Even Adrian Peterson is battling an ankle injury right now. I think if you have someone who is playing and has consistently proven he can put up strong fantasy production he's a plug-and-play guy until proving otherwise. That's where I'd rank Beanie.

 

[cvnpoka]

It strikes me as odd that so many people can be down on a guy with 7 TDs in 7 games.

I'm just wondering how many have actually benefited from all 7 TDs. I'll admit my lack of trust has caused me to miss out on much of his production (@ Wash, ~90/1; vs NYG, ~130/3; @ Balt, ~80/1). I know.....that's my bad, but it's hard to trust a guy w/ his short history when he's constantly a GTD & in matchups that are supposedly difficult at best. I don't complain about his actual production; I just grumble about how hard it is to trust the guy. I know what's gonna happen: he'll be active next week vs StL, but won't finish the game. Final line will be something like 35/0, and I'll be again like I was w/ him week 7.

It was tought to start him against Baltimore. I didn't. Anyone that did was probably just out of other options. He's started for me in all of the other games where he's been active.However, he'd already shown an ability to be on the injury report and put up big numbers as he did in the game against the Giants. It was frustrating to see him leave against the Steelers though. I agree there. He was just starting to get it going when he left that game. Beanie has been outstanding this year. He's consistently putting up numbers on a bad team. The Cardinals have faced their tough stretch. That schedule lightens up a little bit from here on out.He's a top 10 option if the knee holds up.

only game that you should have even considered benching him was this past ravens game. i played him in a few, benched him in others. removing him last minute for brandon jacobs, battle, and hardesty really really hurt but thats on me. reporters love to say a player will be "limited" but its almost always baseless. gameday roster spots are at a premium and nfl coaches are correctly loathsome to waste a spot on a guy who cant properly contribute.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

He's a top 10 option if the knee holds up.

True, but can't use a font large enough for that "IF".Also depends whether the team can avoid falling behind, as his involvement in the passing game is Michael Turner-esque.

They have been behind pretty much the entire year and that doesn't seem to have stopped him from producing.

He's almost the polar opposite of Mendenhall in that way. Mendenhall, now there's an RB to gripe about, virtually useless unless the game is reasonably close. Watched the Steelers yesterday, thinking they'd pound the ball to keep Brady off the field. Nope, pass pass pass pass pass run pass pass pass pass. Passed all freakin day and had Redman in for multiple series too. Wells is involved all the way when healthy, miles better than the guy I stupidly drafted a full 6 rounds earlier.

 

[Walton Goggins]

He's a top 10 option if the knee holds up.

True, but can't use a font large enough for that "IF".Also depends whether the team can avoid falling behind, as his involvement in the passing game is Michael Turner-esque.

They have been behind pretty much the entire year and that doesn't seem to have stopped him from producing.

He's almost the polar opposite of Mendenhall in that way. Mendenhall, now there's an RB to gripe about, virtually useless unless the game is reasonably close. Watched the Steelers yesterday, thinking they'd pound the ball to keep Brady off the field. Nope, pass pass pass pass pass run pass pass pass pass. Passed all freakin day and had Redman in for multiple series too. Wells is involved all the way when healthy, miles better than the guy I stupidly drafted a full 6 rounds earlier.

NE has one of the WORST passing defenses so it made zero sense for PIT to ground and pound which was the main reason why they seemed to get beat by the PATS in the past. I think most people thought this game was going to be a high passing game. Running on NE is the worst thing you can do if you want to beat them.

 

[LionOfGosforth]

He's a top 10 option if the knee holds up.

True, but can't use a font large enough for that "IF".Also depends whether the team can avoid falling behind, as his involvement in the passing game is Michael Turner-esque.

They have been behind pretty much the entire year and that doesn't seem to have stopped him from producing.

He's almost the polar opposite of Mendenhall in that way. Mendenhall, now there's an RB to gripe about, virtually useless unless the game is reasonably close. Watched the Steelers yesterday, thinking they'd pound the ball to keep Brady off the field. Nope, pass pass pass pass pass run pass pass pass pass. Passed all freakin day and had Redman in for multiple series too. Wells is involved all the way when healthy, miles better than the guy I stupidly drafted a full 6 rounds earlier.

NE has one of the WORST passing defenses so it made zero sense for PIT to ground and pound which was the main reason why they seemed to get beat by the PATS in the past. I think most people thought this game was going to be a high passing game. Running on NE is the worst thing you can do if you want to beat them.

Agreed but it wasn't just yesterday's game, that was only an example. With the exception of the Jags game, he's been hopeless. Not all his fault, but the amount of times I tune into a Steelers game, they have the lead, and there's Roethlisberger in shotgun for the 20th time that game is galling. I was using Mendenhall though more to illustrate what a superb draft pick Beanie has been. When healthy, there's only a handful of RB's I think are running better this year. He's in my lineup every week.

 

[jurrassic]

Would you trade Wells for Roddy White?

 

[jon_mx]

Beanie is going to be a top 15 RB this week and someone will have egg on their face.

Beanie....8th best RB of the week.