Bears DST (1 Viewer)

[zed2283]

Hey guys, I've got a chance to trade for the Bears defense but I've got some concerns. Mainly:

1. the general Super Bowl hangover

2. how will offense perform this year?

3. the Lance Briggs situation

4. the Tank Johnson suspension

5. the Alex Brown situation

6. the status of Mike Brown

6a. will Archuleta be starting (AA = toast)?

With the way the league rules are set up, the DST is actually the second highest scoring starting slot. The Bears and Ravens were huge advantages last year (53 ppg team average, the Bears DST averaged 14 ppg and ranked 6TH OVERALL). I feel like my team is top 4 or 5 and that the Bears could really help me make a push, IF they keep up their play of the last couple of years.

So.... any thoughts?

 

[Rounders]

The Bears defense will continue to get turnovers and pressure the QBs. When you get a chance look at their schedule, if I'm not mistaken they play a lot of young QBs this year and that could me more INTs and/or Sacks. I wouldn't expect them to produce last years numbers but they will be a top 5 defense. To answer your questions:

1) Yes worry about the hangover

2) Grossman is out to prove last year was no fluke, but this team goes as long as they can stay healthy up front and run the ball

3) Briggs is not a concern (at least they don't think so)

4) Tank will be playing "angry" when he returns and he could be a decent 2nd half boost to the team

5) No issue

6) If Mike Brown is healthy, this is a scary good defense, too bad that is a HUGE if. All signs point to yes

6a) I think Arch will be okay. He's reunited with his coach that made him most successful. He has the speed that the Bears covet, so I think he's solid.

7) You didn't ask but the biggest concern is the health of Tommie Harris. When he's on the field he's one of the best DT in the NFL, they need him back, and all signs are pointing to him being healthy.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Front seven: Mark Anderson should be a more explosive playmaker than Alex Brown was. His percentage of FF was just as impressive as Brown's had been. I'm mildly concerned that he may not be as productive in more of an every down role. The loss of Brown would also hurt the depth unless Dan Bazuin can move into a solid situational role. The turnover among the DT corps may be the larger issue, especially if Anthony Adams doesn't work well in the NT role. I like Lance Briggs, but the WLB position is a fairly easy role to fill in Lovie's scheme. Okwo has the skill set (solid tackler, good range, above average in coverage) to fit well.

Secondary: I wouldn't worry about Archuleta. Lovie knows how to use him in his scheme -- Archuleta was very productive as a SS/nickel backer in St. Louis a few years ago. As rounders mentioned, the bigger issue is the health of Mike Brown. If he's healthy enough to play solidly in coverage and keep Archuleta in a role of strength, the secondary will thrive. If not, Danieal Manning and/or Chris Harris better improve in coverage or many of the same issues in deep coverage will show themselves again this year.

 

[Nookular Power]

I'll second much of what Rounders had to say, and add my 2 cents:

2. I'm a big fan of Ron Turner, and think Rex will improve with experience in the system. Lot's of folks out there disagree, though, so make you're own call there. He's really the key -- the run game should be solid, but the difference between a passable and a really good offence will be Rex.

3. Briggs will likely be back for the year, then will be gone. They've got a couple young guys in the pipe-line that they really seem to like, who should be ready to take his place after '07. They won't be as good individually, but I wouldn't worry that the team would slip too much long-term without Briggs.

4. Johnson and Harris are key for the D (along with Urlacher, of course). They may struggle a bit without Johnson early, but all indications are he's got his head on straight and will come back ready at mid-season. An important note here is that he gets to work out with the team during his suspension -- he should step right in once his suspension is done, and the Bears D (barring late injury) should be strongest late.

5. With Mark Anderson's performance last year, combined with them being fairly high on the 2nd rounder this year, I think DE is a position of strength, with or without Alex Smith. I'd guess the odds of a trade here are fairly high -- I'd watch to see what they address with this. The Bears' biggest weakness (outside of the inconsistency of the starting QB) is on the solid but aging offensive line -- no real depth.

6. It's hard to predict what will become of Mike Brown. He's a big part of the D when he's healthy, and they suffer when he's out. They've put some draft picks in the safety position the last couple of years, and they brought in Archuleta...but it's the biggest unknown on the D. Solid play here makes the difference between a really good and an historically good D, IMO.

As Rounders said, they'll get turnovers and will likely outscore most other defenses on return TDs so long as Lovie is head coach. The points really will continue to separate the Bears' D from all others. They're young, well coached, and if they can stay hungry, I'd expect them to be top 5 for a good while. If your gut says you're looking at a good deal, I'd pick them up.

 

[Routilla]

I'll second much of what Rounders had to say, and add my 2 cents:2. I'm a big fan of Ron Turner, and think Rex will improve with experience in the system. Lot's of folks out there disagree, though, so make you're own call there. He's really the key -- the run game should be solid, but the difference between a passable and a really good offence will be Rex.3. Briggs will likely be back for the year, then will be gone. They've got a couple young guys in the pipe-line that they really seem to like, who should be ready to take his place after '07. They won't be as good individually, but I wouldn't worry that the team would slip too much long-term without Briggs.4. Johnson and Harris are key for the D (along with Urlacher, of course). They may struggle a bit without Johnson early, but all indications are he's got his head on straight and will come back ready at mid-season. An important note here is that he gets to work out with the team during his suspension -- he should step right in once his suspension is done, and the Bears D (barring late injury) should be strongest late.5. With Mark Anderson's performance last year, combined with them being fairly high on the 2nd rounder this year, I think DE is a position of strength, with or without Alex Smith. I'd guess the odds of a trade here are fairly high -- I'd watch to see what they address with this. The Bears' biggest weakness (outside of the inconsistency of the starting QB) is on the solid but aging offensive line -- no real depth.6. It's hard to predict what will become of Mike Brown. He's a big part of the D when he's healthy, and they suffer when he's out. They've put some draft picks in the safety position the last couple of years, and they brought in Archuleta...but it's the biggest unknown on the D. Solid play here makes the difference between a really good and an historically good D, IMO.As Rounders said, they'll get turnovers and will likely outscore most other defenses on return TDs so long as Lovie is head coach. The points really will continue to separate the Bears' D from all others. They're young, well coached, and if they can stay hungry, I'd expect them to be top 5 for a good while. If your gut says you're looking at a good deal, I'd pick them up.

I just wish they were not the top DEF going into my draft. It will be virtually impossible to get them without drafting them ahead of their ADP.

 

[benbadman]

One important fact that I haven't seen mentioned in this thread yet: the Bears lost their defensive coordinator, Ron Rivera, to the Chargers.

Granted, Lovie Smith is known as a defensive-minded coach, so I suppose this year we will see how much of that defensive scheme was really just Lovie Smith's coaching.

 

[Chase Stuart]

One very important fact that people might overlook: the Bears face a ton of good offenses this year. You really don't want to spend a lot on a team that faces the best offenses in the league.

ETA: I confused my teams. Baltimore has an impossible schedule, not Chicago. The Bears' opponents are actually fairly tame. If you've got the two teams neck and neck, I'd grab the Bears first because of the much easier schedule.

 

[Jene Bramel]

One important fact that I haven't seen mentioned in this thread yet: the Bears lost their defensive coordinator, Ron Rivera, to the Chargers.Granted, Lovie Smith is known as a defensive-minded coach, so I suppose this year we will see how much of that defensive scheme was really just Lovie Smith's coaching.

Smith and new DC Bob Babich were intimately involved in the defense. I don't believe losing Rivera will have much impact.

 

[zed2283]

Thanks guys, I appreciate the insight. That's exactly what I was looking for!

The Mike Brown thing scares me. I love that guy and the defense is so good with him in the lineup. How old is he and what exactly have his injuries been the past few years?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Thanks guys, I appreciate the insight. That's exactly what I was looking for! The Mike Brown thing scares me. I love that guy and the defense is so good with him in the lineup. How old is he and what exactly have his injuries been the past few years?

He won't turn 30 until after the 2007 season. The mileage is significant though.Oct 2006: Severe Lis Franc injury right foot requiring surgery.August 2006: Strained right Achilles tendon in camp2005: Missed four games with calf injury2004: Missed fourteen games with ruptured right Achilles tendonBrown looked like one of the success stories, returning to pretty good levels in 2005 after the Achilles injury. It also sounds like he's ready to go after the Lis Franc thing, but that right foot/ankle has taken a beating over the last three years. It'll be interesting to see if he will be healthy enough to play without compensating and risking a new injury and if he'll be able to regain the range he had when he was younger.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I could be totally offbase here because I don't follow the Bears that closely, but I was talking to a Bears fan I know about the Tank Johnson situation and he was saying that he had been struggling and was in danger of losing his starting job anyway. Was he just totally off?

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I could be totally offbase here because I don't follow the Bears that closely, but I was talking to a Bears fan I know about the Tank Johnson situation and he was saying that he had been struggling and was in danger of losing his starting job anyway. Was he just totally off?

Nope...he has not lived up to his 2nd round pick selection. Last season he made some strides and to be fair he was coming off of an injury, but I think the Bears expected more.Dusty Dvorchek will start opposite Tommy Harris, just as they did at Oklahoma and they will me monsters inside. Anthony Adams will rotate inas will odenije and then after his suspension Tank will get back into the flow.If the Bears get down in games this season, I do question their run stuffing ability up the middle because the DT's are gap penetrating and are therefore undersized. However I don't see them being behind all year