And Rice got jobbed, again. ####### hall of famer bull#### voters.
A good article by Rob Neyer on the problems of the Rice for HOF campaign:But Rice would seem to have a pretty good chance. And for the next 11 months -- and particularly after the 2007 World Series -- you're going to hear and read two things about Rice in particular. First, you're going to hear that he was perhaps the best hitter in the American League for a number of years. And when objections are raised, you're going to hear that Fenway Park didn't help Rice much, if at all.To that we can simply say this: Preposterous. Utterly preposterous. Anybody who seriously believes Rice wasn't helped by Fenway Park is dead wrong. Rice spent his entire career with the Red Sox, and played almost exactly half his games at Fenway. At home, he batted .320; everywhere else he batted .277. At home, he hit 207 doubles; everywhere else he hit 166. At Fenway, he hit 208 home runs; everywhere else he hit 174 homersEvery time I write about Rice, his fans scream (electronically) that Fenway Park hurt Rice, because so many of his long drives were transformed by the wall from home runs to doubles. I'm sure that happened occasionally. It's clear that Fenway did pad Rice's doubles column. It's just as clear that Fenway also padded Rice's taters column. For most of Rice's career, Fenway was one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the American League, and every hitter benefited to some degree. This was especially true in the early part of Rice's career, when, not coincidentally enough, he just happened to pile up his most impressive counting stats. Yes, Fenway turned some homers into doubles. It also turned some fly outs into homers and doubles.Mostly, it's Red Sox fans who say Fenway didn't help Rice. So let's focus on the more substantive argument for Rice's greatness. If he does wind up in the Hall of Fame, it'll be for exactly one reason: The voters believe that, as the Red Sox PR department loves to say, "From 1975 to 1986, Jim Rice was the most dominant player in the American League." (That comes directly from a package titled "Why Jim Rice is Worthy of Hall of Fame Induction," which the Sox sent to every Hall of Fame voter they could track down last year.)Now, I've written about Rice and this particular claim before. Still, it continues to raise its statistically ugly head. I like you. So I'm going to try this again. No rhetorical tricks, no statistical sleight of hand. Just the facts as I come across them, in our search for something resembling objective truth.When I see the words "most dominant player," I think "best player." Was Rice the best player in the American League over those 12 seasons? Looking at runs created above position (which is self-explanatory, I hope) from 1975 through '86, we find Rice with 179 RCAP, which is a fine total. Not the best, mind you. That would belong to George Brett. Not the second best (Robin Yount), or even the third best (Eddie Murray). Rice's 179 RCAP ranks 17th in the league over that 12-year span. The 15th and 16th spots are held by non-Hall of Famer Dwight Evans and non-Hall of Famer Willie Randolph. Also above Rice on the list are non-Hall of Famers Fred Lynn, Bobby Grich, Ken Singleton, Toby Harrah and Alan Trammell.That's one problem. Another is the notion that Rice was, if nothing else, one of the very best hitters in baseball -- disregarding position -- over those dozen seasons. Maybe that's what "most dominant" is supposed to mean. But he was not that, either. The very best major league hitters from 1975 through 1986 were Mike Schmidt and Brett. Respectively, they totaled 546 and 493 runs created above average (disregarding their positions). Murray was third, with 387. Fourth -- and this might surprise you (it did me) -- was Keith Hernandez, with 346. The next four slots are held by Hall of Famers Rod Carew (330), Dave Winfield (326), Joe Morgan (325) and Rickey Henderson (317).Here are the next four on the list: RCAA Lynn 300 Rice 289 Singleton 289 Jose Cruz 280One player who's on the cusp of being elected to the Hall of Fame, and three players who fell off the ballot quickly. Cruz picked up two votes, and was gone. Singleton picked up zero votes. Lynn actually survived for a second try, then he dropped from the ballot, too.Granted, Rice isn't all that far behind Winfield, Morgan and Henderson. Here's the thing, though: Those guys created a lot of runs outside of 1975-86. Outside of those 12 seasons, Winfield created 108 runs above average; Morgan, 338; Henderson, 438. And Rice? Outside of his 12 fine seasons, he created negative-18 runs above average (which means we should place quotation marks around "created").He piled up some impressive raw numbers from 1975 through '86. But when you draw the lines specifically to support your case, you can wind up with some strange arguments. If we make a list of the players with the most hits from 1959 through 1967 -- nine seasons -- we find the No. 2-6 slots occupied by Hank Aaron, Roberto Clemente, Willie Mays, Frank Robinson and Brooks Robinson. Top-tier Hall of Famers, all of them. And No. 1 on the list? Vada Pinson. Over a span of nine seasons, nobody racked up more hits than Vada Pinson.If we make a list of the players who have led the majors in hits in each decade, it looks like this: Honus Wagner, Ty Cobb, Rogers Hornsby, Paul Waner, Lou Boudreau, Richie Ashburn, Clemente, Pete Rose, Yount … and Mark Grace. Similarly, from 1975 through 1984, nobody got more hits than Steve Garvey. You might consider that a key component of his Hall of Fame case, but the fact is that Garvey never has come close to being elected.We can play that game all day long. Let me leave you with two facts: (1) Outside of his 12 best seasons, Rice was essentially an offensive zero, and (2) if you consider his statistics in the context of his home ballpark, his league and the position he played, Rice's stats in his 12 best seasons were very good but not great. He played half his games in a hitter's paradise, he didn't walk much, and he grounded into a ton of double plays. Now, maybe that equation finishes with Cooperstown on the far side of the equal sign. But I keep getting a different answer.