Benson TD's (1 Viewer)

[brian98]

Bengals look to have a diverse set of WR/WR/TE to go with the nice line and the atitiude to give Benson 300+carries. They should move the ball better than last year. B.Scott too small to take away red zone touches... so why do all the FBG projections have him at only 6-9 tds???

 

[Bayhawks]

Bengals look to have a diverse set of WR/WR/TE to go with the nice line and the atitiude to give Benson 300+carries. They should move the ball better than last year. B.Scott too small to take away red zone touches... so why do all the FBG projections have him at only 6-9 tds???

Maybe because he's never been good at scoring TDs? Just because a RB is 222 lbs doesn't mean he is able to get the short tough yards. Benson has never been good (in the NFL) at scoring TDs. What reason is there to think he will be able to start doing so now?

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Bengals look to have a diverse set of WR/WR/TE to go with the nice line and the atitiude to give Benson 300+carries. They should move the ball better than last year. B.Scott too small to take away red zone touches... so why do all the FBG projections have him at only 6-9 tds???

Maybe because he's never been good at scoring TDs? Just because a RB is 222 lbs doesn't mean he is able to get the short tough yards. Benson has never been good (in the NFL) at scoring TDs. What reason is there to think he will be able to start doing so now?

Since he's been in the league (2005), he's only had 17 attempts inside the opponents 5 yard line. He converted 11 of those into TDs (65%). Only one other RB had a higher conversion rate during that time. Corey Dillon with 72%. Apparently, he's not too bad.

Data Dominator - RB carries inside 5, 2005-2009, min of 10

 

[Bayhawks]

Bengals look to have a diverse set of WR/WR/TE to go with the nice line and the atitiude to give Benson 300+carries. They should move the ball better than last year. B.Scott too small to take away red zone touches... so why do all the FBG projections have him at only 6-9 tds???

Maybe because he's never been good at scoring TDs? Just because a RB is 222 lbs doesn't mean he is able to get the short tough yards. Benson has never been good (in the NFL) at scoring TDs. What reason is there to think he will be able to start doing so now?

Since he's been in the league (2005), he's only had 17 attempts inside the opponents 5 yard line. He converted 11 of those into TDs (65%). Only one other RB had a higher conversion rate during that time. Corey Dillon with 72%. Apparently, he's not too bad.

Data Dominator - RB carries inside 5, 2005-2009, min of 10

OK, I'm not a subscriber so I can't access the DD. Perhaps you could run the numbers. How many RBs have had more than 17 attempts in the last 5 years? I'm willing to bet it's A LOT. It doesn't matter if he has a 65% conversion rate inside the 5, IF HE DOESN'T GET CARRIES INSIDE THE 5! 65% of 3.4 carries (his average touches inside the 5 over his 5-year career) is 2.2 TDs.

He didn't get the TDs when he was the "bigger" back in a RBBC in Chicago, he didn't the TDs after TJ left and he was the lead RB in Chicago, and he didn't get the TDs last year when he was the work-horse back for Cincy. Why should we expect that to change now?

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Bengals look to have a diverse set of WR/WR/TE to go with the nice line and the atitiude to give Benson 300+carries. They should move the ball better than last year. B.Scott too small to take away red zone touches... so why do all the FBG projections have him at only 6-9 tds???

Maybe because he's never been good at scoring TDs? Just because a RB is 222 lbs doesn't mean he is able to get the short tough yards. Benson has never been good (in the NFL) at scoring TDs. What reason is there to think he will be able to start doing so now?

Since he's been in the league (2005), he's only had 17 attempts inside the opponents 5 yard line. He converted 11 of those into TDs (65%). Only one other RB had a higher conversion rate during that time. Corey Dillon with 72%. Apparently, he's not too bad.

Data Dominator - RB carries inside 5, 2005-2009, min of 10

OK, I'm not a subscriber so I can't access the DD. Perhaps you could run the numbers. How many RBs have had more than 17 attempts in the last 5 years? I'm willing to bet it's A LOT.

62. But, I don't know how that makes him bad. It justs means he hasn't had the opportunities.

It doesn't matter if he has a 65% conversion rate inside the 5, IF HE DOESN'T GET CARRIES INSIDE THE 5! 65% of 3.4 carries (his average touches inside the 5 over his 5-year career) is 2.2 TDs.

He didn't get the TDs when he was the "bigger" back in a RBBC in Chicago, he didn't the TDs after TJ left and he was the lead RB in Chicago, and he didn't get the TDs last year when he was the work-horse back for Cincy. Why should we expect that to change now?

There were other reasons he didn't get the workload in Chicago. But, in 2006, he had 5 carries inside the 5 and had 5 TDs (TJ was 4 of 13). In 2007, he was 2 of 4 (Peterson, 2 of 8). Since he signed with Cincy in 2008 (week 5), not only has he scored every TD inside the 5 (by RBs) but he has scored every rushing TD scored by RBs. You're correct that there is no reason to expect that to change.He can only score if the offense is good enough to give him the opportunity.

 

[Nero]

Bengals look to have a diverse set of WR/WR/TE to go with the nice line and the atitiude to give Benson 300+carries. They should move the ball better than last year. B.Scott too small to take away red zone touches... so why do all the FBG projections have him at only 6-9 tds???

Maybe the fact that the Bengals had 6 rushing TD's last year, and 4 in 08. I think the TO addition should put him on the high side of the 6-9.

 

[Tango]

After Benson was done for the day this past Sunday night in the preseason game vs the Broncos, the first time they got to the goal line in what I think was the middle of the 2nd quarter, they put Benson back in the game to run with the goal line set. Then he promptly scored. That should have put a smile on the faces of Benson owners.

Benson should score all of the Bengals' goalline TDs plus 3-4 longer scores, plus 1-2 in the air. 10+ is highly likely. The chips just fell the way they fell and did not reflect anything inherent with Benson or the Bengals that would make us think that that they shouldnt score on the ground regularly. There isnt a running QB and Palmer isnt a big fade-in-the-endzone passer.

Projecting when trends and past performance *wont* hold is how fantasy championships are won.

 

[AllVolUT]

After Benson was done for the day this past Sunday night in the preseason game vs the Broncos, the first time they got to the goal line in what I think was the middle of the 2nd quarter, they put Benson back in the game to run with the goal line set. Then he promptly scored. That should have put a smile on the faces of Benson owners.Benson should score all of the Bengals' goalline TDs plus 3-4 longer scores, plus 1-2 in the air. 10+ is highly likely. The chips just fell the way they fell and did not reflect anything inherent with Benson or the Bengals that would make us think that that they shouldnt score on the ground regularly. There isnt a running QB and Palmer isnt a big fade-in-the-endzone passer. Projecting when trends and past performance *wont* hold is how fantasy championships are won.

Good stuff.TDs are variable, especially for a player on a good offense. Ryan Grant is a perfect example - 4 rushing TDs in '08 and 8 rushing TDs in '09. I prefer to judge the RBs involvement in the offense, as well as their respective talents...before I look at last year's rushing totals.

 

[Bayhawks]

There were other reasons he didn't get the workload in Chicago. But, in 2006, he had 5 carries inside the 5 and had 5 TDs (TJ was 4 of 13). In 2007, he was 2 of 4 (Peterson, 2 of 8). Since he signed with Cincy in 2008 (week 5), not only has he scored every TD inside the 5 (by RBs) but he has scored every rushing TD scored by RBs. You're correct that there is no reason to expect that to change.

He can only score if the offense is good enough to give him the opportunity.

So he can only score when his offense gives him the opportunity, and you yourself noted how he has scored every rushing TD by a Bengal in his time there. That's EIGHT TDS in 1 3/4 seasons! As I posted earlier, why should we expect that to change, and suddenly project him for double digit TDs?

 

[Bayhawks]

After Benson was done for the day this past Sunday night in the preseason game vs the Broncos, the first time they got to the goal line in what I think was the middle of the 2nd quarter, they put Benson back in the game to run with the goal line set.

While I believe this is good for Benson owners, it's not entirely accurate. Benson wasn't "done for the day." All the starters were still in for Cincy. Scott was getting a series, while Benson was on the sidelines (helmet on, ready to play). When they got inside the 10, Benson went in, and scored on his 2nd carry. So it's not like he was done, and they made an emergency call to their "goal-line savior." That being said, I don't think it really changed anything. Benson is going to be the guy who gets the short carries for Cincy, but how many will there be?

Benson should score all of the Bengals' goalline TDs plus 3-4 longer scores, plus 1-2 in the air. 10+ is highly likely.

Highly likely? Benson has scored exactly 4 TDs in his career from over 10 yards, and you believe it is highly likely he will double those numbers? Benson has scored exactly ZERO receiving TDs in his career, and you believe he will suddenly put up 1-2 this year?

The chips just fell the way they fell and did not reflect anything inherent with Benson or the Bengals that would make us think that that they shouldnt score on the ground regularly. There isnt a running QB and Palmer isnt a big fade-in-the-endzone passer.

Except for the fact that they don't score on the ground regularly? 6, 6, 10. Those are the RB TD numbers over the last 3 years out of Cincy.

Projecting when trends and past performance *wont* hold is how fantasy championships are won.

This is true, but making projections for no other reason than "to predict change" (like Benson doubling his career TD total from over 10 yards, or scoring 2 receiving TDs when he's never even scored one, or getting double digit TDs when he and Cincy don't score double digit TDs) is how fantasy championships are lost.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

To that point about opportunities Inside the 5...

When you take 2008-2009 totals into account, the Bengals are dead last in rushing attempts with 13. They aren't even close to the teams that finished tied for 30th (TB & SEA with 24).

I'm not sure what has caused such a gap in CIN's red zone and goal line attack. But when you consider that teams in the Top 5 in this category all have 50 or more, you can see that the dearth of opportunity for Benson has been his primary impediment, not his ability to convert.

 

[comet909]

Short answer is that the offense was terrible down the stretch last year. The year before that it was even worse with no Palmer.

Offense has been improved on several fronts. A pass catching tight end. TO. A dynamic shifty rookie slot reciever. All of these things keep the drives going and get them to the goal line. That means more Touchdowns. I expect 10-12. I think his numbers this year are on par with Rudi Johnson's better years.

 

[bucsbaby]

The fantasy community is down on Benson, so scoop up the value

 

[Tango]

Hi Bayhawks, I think this is a worthwhile debate. And I appreciate the civility too!

Highly likely? Benson has scored exactly 4 TDs in his career from over 10 yards, and you believe it is highly likely he will double those numbers? Benson has scored exactly ZERO receiving TDs in his career, and you believe he will suddenly put up 1-2 this year?

He has shown some good burst in the last year. And let's not discount his strong performance against the highly touted Jets run defense in the playoffs, including his 40+ yard TD run. So that was two 20+ scores in 2009 playing 12 games (2 DNP, sat week 17, missed most of one game with injury) plus the long playoff score. So the over/under on 20+ is probably 3; perhaps 2.5. So I'll take your point and back-track just a little here from my numbers. Regarding receiving; he was catching ball exceedingly well last August (I know it doesnt mean much, but it did show me he has the ability to catch a screen pass and rip it up if given the opportunity)...but that may have been because Carson was out all pre-season. What would you put the receiving TD over/under at? I'd say 1 or 1.5. It sounds like you'd say 0.5. Fair enough I'd say. But if he is healthy...and he is; I'd be all-over an over bet on 0.5.

Except for the fact that they don't score on the ground regularly? 6, 6, 10. Those are the RB TD numbers over the last 3 years out of Cincy.

Yep, low totals. 2008 should be thrown away. The team wasnt the same in 2007; he wasnt even there. 2009 is the only point of reference that strikes me as valid and it is in that number that I see value for Benson. He will be underrated because of that number. Can I prove that? Nope, of course not. Not yet anyway. He is clearly on a run-first team, they have no QB run threat (though Palmer punched in 3 on sneaks; was that not an anomaly? I'd say yes), no vulture threat, no pass-first in the red zone mentality (they passed 51% of the time in the redzone in '09; which placed them 16th...right in the middle). I see no reason why the Bengals wont get to a dozen rushing TD's (roughly the league average) and Benson getting 10 out of 12 of those. That seems perfectly reasonable; yes, even probable in my opinion. I'm curious. What do you think is the underlying reason for the Bengals poor rush TD total in 2009? O-line, Benson cant run on the goalline, play selection, situation (they were the cardiac kids the first two months), etc. and why do you feel it will continue in 2010?

 

[Warrior]

9 would be very generous

 

[Rick James]

I'd take 9 TDs from a RB2 in a heartbeat.

 

[Hoosier16]

9 would be very generous

Including his playoff game, he had 7 in 13 1/4 games last year which projects to 8 1/2 in a 16 game season.

 

[bengalbuck]

Hi Bayhawks, I think this is a worthwhile debate. And I appreciate the civility too!

Highly likely? Benson has scored exactly 4 TDs in his career from over 10 yards, and you believe it is highly likely he will double those numbers? Benson has scored exactly ZERO receiving TDs in his career, and you believe he will suddenly put up 1-2 this year?

He has shown some good burst in the last year. And let's not discount his strong performance against the highly touted Jets run defense in the playoffs, including his 40+ yard TD run. So that was two 20+ scores in 2009 playing 12 games (2 DNP, sat week 17, missed most of one game with injury) plus the long playoff score. So the over/under on 20+ is probably 3; perhaps 2.5. So I'll take your point and back-track just a little here from my numbers. Regarding receiving; he was catching ball exceedingly well last August (I know it doesnt mean much, but it did show me he has the ability to catch a screen pass and rip it up if given the opportunity)...but that may have been because Carson was out all pre-season. What would you put the receiving TD over/under at? I'd say 1 or 1.5. It sounds like you'd say 0.5. Fair enough I'd say. But if he is healthy...and he is; I'd be all-over an over bet on 0.5.

Except for the fact that they don't score on the ground regularly? 6, 6, 10. Those are the RB TD numbers over the last 3 years out of Cincy.

Yep, low totals. 2008 should be thrown away. The team wasnt the same in 2007; he wasnt even there. 2009 is the only point of reference that strikes me as valid and it is in that number that I see value for Benson. He will be underrated because of that number. Can I prove that? Nope, of course not. Not yet anyway. He is clearly on a run-first team, they have no QB run threat (though Palmer punched in 3 on sneaks; was that not an anomaly? I'd say yes), no vulture threat, no pass-first in the red zone mentality (they passed 51% of the time in the redzone in '09; which placed them 16th...right in the middle). I see no reason why the Bengals wont get to a dozen rushing TD's (roughly the league average) and Benson getting 10 out of 12 of those. That seems perfectly reasonable; yes, even probable in my opinion. I'm curious. What do you think is the underlying reason for the Bengals poor rush TD total in 2009? O-line, Benson cant run on the goalline, play selection, situation (they were the cardiac kids the first two months), etc. and why do you feel it will continue in 2010?

Good post. As a Bengals fan, the only real valuable comparison is to last year's numbers. In 2007, the Bengals were terrible at RB. Just no talented guys at the position. They tried to address it with a 2nd round pick (Kenny Irons) but he blew out his knee and couldn't play. 2008, Carson missed almost the entire season and the offense struggled mightily. It wasn't until late in 2008, when the Bengals decided they would just pound the ball with Benson that things really picked up for the team and they ended with 3 straight wins and found a game plan for 2009.Last season, the Bengals gave the ball to Benson a ton. But they often got bogged down in the red zone and had to settle for FGs, especially over the 2nd half of the season when Carson's elbow seemed to bother him and the WRs and TEs other than Chad looked awful. I think the general split of TDs passing vs. rushing in 2010 will be somewhat similar to last year (maybe a little more skewed towards rushing TDs, but close). To me, the real question is whether or not you believe the Bengals offense in general will be better and score more TDs. If you do think that (based upon TO, Gresham, Shipley, Carson's better health and possibly Andre Smith), then I think its a smart assumption that Benson will get his fair share of those extra TDs. If you think the Bengals offense will perform similarly to last year, then the projections that he is only going to score 6-8 TDs make sense.