BroadwayG
Footballguy
The object of a best ball is not to play it safe and finish 4th. There is no playoffs here.
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Best Ball (MFL10s, DRAFT, etc.) (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Borden
- Start date
Touchdown There
Footballguy
There is also no waiver wire. In this format you start 3 WR (who score more points in PPR) and only 2 RBs. Top notch QBs, WRs, and TEs is the way to play this best ball, not RB-RB-RB.
BroadwayG
Footballguy
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Willie Neslon
Footballguy
The good news in all of this is now the people who time out early in the draft will be stuck with Foster. You see these guys timing out in the 1st or second rounds getting "stuck" with Antonio Brown or Luck, almost like they're rewarded for grinding the draft to a halt.
You invest more in WRs by rostering more of them, not by picking them early. You can get 80% of a 2nd/3rd round WR in the 8th or 9th, the same is not exactly true for RB (and even more exaggerated in best ball where you want those big scoring weeks that only stud RBs will put up with any kind of consistency). This is literally the entire principle of VBD, arguably the biggest evolution in FF theory ever, and you guys think it's cute to dismiss it because "muh PPR, start 3 WRs!"?
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Don't get all defensive because I don't like using your strategy. I'm not saying your strategy is wrong, I just want to use mine. I have my own theory right now and if it blows up in my face then I'll try something different. I've have the big RBs before and got burned by then too many times so I decided to go a different direction. I may just have bad luck with RBs.
Tick
Footballguy
I'm good at best ball traditionally, and I always go RB-heavy. I've won the staff/MB challenge before, finished about 4th in the $20k competition... RB heavy, load up on lots of late WRs has been my approach, and it works well.
Maybe going away from RBs early will work, but I'm not going to mess with it unless the draft flow mandates it.
Maybe going away from RBs early will work, but I'm not going to mess with it unless the draft flow mandates it.
ffbowler300
Footballguy
I'm in a few leagues with you. My name in all of my leagues is Your Worst Nightmare. I totally agree with this statement. Better taking boom/bust type of guys in a best ball format where it's basically win or nothing. 2nd gets you a free entry into 1 next year but really who cares about that?BroadwayG said:
ffbowler300
Footballguy
This is a great question and one that I am going to be asking myself as I am in around 15 or so MFL10 MFL25 drafts right now. Just got stuck with Foster in a 10 where I took him @ 1.10 :( I would think personally he's going to end up on teams that time out so it's really a mute point on where he should actually be drafted moving forward but I don't think I would feel comfortable taking him anywhere before like round 11 or 12. Anyone else have thoughts on this?topman said:
BroadwayG
Footballguy
I personally wouldn't sniff him until the 15th, at least until the severity and timetable is officially announced.topman said:
For comparison, Ronnie Hillman provided good value at an 18th round ADP last year while only providing a handful of extremely useful games. I think this is about as good as you can expect from Foster assuming you get him for 6.
That's fair. I guess I should have quoted Touchdown There instead of you, as he was the one making the ridiculous claims ("Top notch QBs, WRs, and TEs is the way to play this best ball, not RB-RB-RB."). Your post just happened to be shorter and more convenient to quote...Hawkeye21 said:
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Did your formula take into account injury risk or does your formula assume that everyone is going to stay healthy? You draft and then look at your roster when you are done and think "Yeah, I am the the best drafter the world has ever seen.". You can't seem to get it through your head to date Rob Monge, so I doubt you can grasp it now. Your equation does not take into account all the variables. VBD does not include injury risk not was it created to analyze best ball. The #1 most injured position is RB, especially when you are drafting this early. You are going RB-RB-RB-RB in some drafts and there are going to be more days like yesterday (Foster down). If Forsett goes down, over half your drafts are dead in the water because you are weak at QB, TE and WR.
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What formula are you referring to exactly? And of course when you draft your team, you assume everyone will stay healhy... Are you trying to project injuries? Are you in the business of fortune telling, or playing fantasy football? There is simply no way to factor "injury risk" into this in any meaningful way (outside of saying "I'm staying away from DMC because he's always injured" or the like). When players present as values, I will take them. If they get injured, bad beat... You can't waste your picks in best ball on handcuffs, you'd kill all your upside right out of the gate. So what else would you propose outside of clairvoyance or handcuffing to mitigate this injury problem? Take all of your RBs in the later rounds where they're sure to not get injured? I have no idea what you're even advocating for here.
Your assertion that I am weak at the non-RB positions is pretty off-base as well, especially considering that the majority of my rosters have a QB projected in the top 3, and 2 TEs projected in the top 6.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Who gets injured more, QBs or RBs? The injury risk factor is something that I have been preaching on this board for years. Inevitably someone comes back with the same lame response you had: you can't project injuries. This assertion is seems logical, but is 100% wrong. You can create a risk factor for each player based on the position they play, their measurables (height, weight, agility) and their injury history. A good example this year is Eddie Lacy. He has had two concussions in two years. He is likely to miss significant time on his next one because of NFL concussion protocols. Chris Johnson always had the quick twitch agility to deflect or avoid a big hit, Lacy does not. I am a Packer fan, but there is no way I am drafting Lacy in the first.
How many people drafted Lattimore in the first round of rookie drafts a few years back? How many people on this board were on the Jahvid Best hype train? I won a $100 bet on this board knowing that Best never stood a chance. Your logic stinks RobMonge and it is pretty clear you don't have the mental ability to grab the common sense I am throwing at you.
How many people drafted Lattimore in the first round of rookie drafts a few years back? How many people on this board were on the Jahvid Best hype train? I won a $100 bet on this board knowing that Best never stood a chance. Your logic stinks RobMonge and it is pretty clear you don't have the mental ability to grab the common sense I am throwing at you.
ourmanflint
Footballguy
Looking at last year's MFL 10s I can see that
of the teams that started their draft:
- RB, 9.8% are winners
- RB/RB, 10.6% are winners
- RB/RB/RB, 10.8% are winners
- WR, 6.7% are winners
- TE, 7.5% are winners
- WR/WR, 5.7% are winners
- by not selecting RB in first two rounds, 5.8% are winners
- by not selecting RB in the first three rounds, 5.8% are winners
It seems concentrating on RB early gives you the best chance to win. Going RB/RB rather than WR/WR or any other non-RB combo basically doubles your chances of winning.
Marauder
Footballguy
My take is that RB's are higher variance over the course of a year because of the higher risk of injury but lower variance week to week (as long as they are healthy). WR's are the opposite. In addition there are more WR's that can be had in the double digit rounds that have a reasonable chance of having big weeks in any given week. What this means is that Thouchtown Three's strategy is safer and probably gives you a higher chance of finishing near the top, while the RB heavy early strategy gives you both a higher chance of finishing near the bottom and a higher chance of finishing first. That's why, in MFL10's with their extremely top heavy payout structure, the RB heavy early strategy, everything else being equal, is probably preferred. Maybe less so in the 25's, 50's and 100's which have a slightly less top heavy payout structure.
That said, when I say "everything else being equal" I mean, IMO, getting good value still trumps any position strategy. If I'm picking at the end of the first and the first round went really RB heavy, so I have a choice of Brown/Dez or McCoy/Forsett, I'm taking the two WR's every time.
I've been in multiple drafts with Evan Silva this year and I've noticed he seems to start out RB-RB-RB-RB almost every time, often reaching for RB's when stud WR's are still on the board. I suspect he is looking at the same data that BroadwayG and Ourmanflint are looking at but he's overestimating how much causation there is within the correlation (if that makes sense). I predict he will not do well overall this year in these.
That said, when I say "everything else being equal" I mean, IMO, getting good value still trumps any position strategy. If I'm picking at the end of the first and the first round went really RB heavy, so I have a choice of Brown/Dez or McCoy/Forsett, I'm taking the two WR's every time.
I've been in multiple drafts with Evan Silva this year and I've noticed he seems to start out RB-RB-RB-RB almost every time, often reaching for RB's when stud WR's are still on the board. I suspect he is looking at the same data that BroadwayG and Ourmanflint are looking at but he's overestimating how much causation there is within the correlation (if that makes sense). I predict he will not do well overall this year in these.
Marauder
Footballguy
Unfortunately, it won't happen as early in drafts as you might think. Although, he as a first round ADP in recent MFL 10's, based on the ADP that MFL uses for their autopicks, he is behind guys like Luck, Rodgers, Hilton, Cooks, Hopkins. Most of the time it probably won't be until the fourth round where he is autopicked.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I am not sure.
Someone set one up after a draft finished but I didn't see that there was a spot available until it was too late. I tried but wasn't able to set one up correctly... had never started a league on MFL before.
Ideally, if someone set up a league like the 10's but made it auction and the teams 30 deep that would be a blast. The depth of the players used is what made those Phenoms leagues so much fun every year.
ffbowler300
Footballguy
So are you claiming to be smarter than Evan Silva? How many have you done? Lets see a couple of your teams? I have been in leagues with Evan and I can tell you he is a very smart guy and a great drafter. He will do well in these overall. I bet he will have a positive ROI when it is all said and done.
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ourmanflint
Footballguy
A brief look at last years data tells me he played 6 MFL 10s winning zero. However, in none of them did he use the RB-RB-RB-RB strategy or anything remotely like it. He actually used something more like what you and Thouchtown Three propose. Trying something new this year I guess.
plastik
Footballguy
I've got a Gronk draft from the 1.06 spot that I like so far. In the 5th:
Ellington, Andre ARI RB (P) 177.5 9 4.07
Forsett, Justin BAL RB 231.3 9 2.07
Miller, Lamar MIA RB 199.6 5 3.06
Johnson, Andre IND WR 161.2 10 5.06
Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 266.4 4 1.06
Ellington, Andre ARI RB (P) 177.5 9 4.07
Forsett, Justin BAL RB 231.3 9 2.07
Miller, Lamar MIA RB 199.6 5 3.06
Johnson, Andre IND WR 161.2 10 5.06
Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 266.4 4 1.06
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Marauder
Footballguy
I'm not claiming to be smarter than anybody nor disparage anybody. The reason I singled him out is because I know he's a very smart guy. I just think he's making a mis-judgement this year. I could be wrong.
I'm not claiming to be a great player, but since you asked, I have only played 5 of these prior to this year. A very small sample size but some moderate success. 2 wins, 2 third place and 1 fifth place (but playing the whole year with zero's from the kicker position due to an early draft where I picked two kickers who both got cut). We'll see after this year whether I have any skill at them, since I'm playing a lot more.
http://football13.myfantasyleague.com/2014/home/37151#0
http://football30.myfantasyleague.com/2014/home/18125#0
http://football13.myfantasyleague.com/2014/home/35072#0
http://football13.myfantasyleague.com/2014/home/35193#0
http://football22.myfantasyleague.com/2014/home/29459#0
Marauder
Footballguy
ourmanflint
Footballguy
I misread your post. After re-reading I guess you're saying that:
- Touchdown Three's method is safer
- But you think RB heavy early is more apt to win MFL 10's
- But in the end you feel value trumps everything else
My point was that Silva went opposite of RB heavy early last year and lost every time. This year he is trying RB heavy early.
Your "common sense" is null and void because you don't have any data to prove it, rather you offer up an anecdote about Jahvid Best winning you a hundo by being injured, and some vague statement about people drafting Marcus Lattimore. Has it ever crossed your mind that your sample size is pathetic and you're just being results oriented? Of course it hasn't. Surely there's no confirmation bias going on here... /s
If you want to educate us, please show us your "injury risk factor" projections and how they've done historically. Otherwise, you're just spewing bull#### and coming off like a clown.
FF Wiseguy
Footballguy
Excited to see that Cian Fahey is in my most recent MFL10. Not as excited about the fact that he is picking right next to me.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Not sure how you obtained your data or how you did your analysis. If teams that selected a RB in the first round won 9.8% of the time, then teams that selected a QB-WR-TE-K-D won 90.2% of the time. Goofy math happening here.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Let it go guy. You have declined two of my bet offers. Your mouth is bigger than your wallet. Drop it.
ourmanflint
Footballguy
I guess you didn't read it.
Of the teams that went RB in the 1st round, 9.8% won their league. There were 13392 teams total with 6622 going RB in the 1st round. Of those 6622, 654 won their league (9.8%).
It really makes no sense as I determined earlier in this thread to calculate what percentage of leagues are won by RB heavy drafters and most people draft RB early. Thus the results are skewed.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Good analysis. Brown is not lasting to the end of the 1st from what I have seen. Dez, ODB, D Thomas and Calvin seem to be the 3 WRs in the late 1st, early 2nd range if you go WR-WR.
plastik
Footballguy
You're confused. If YOU selected a RB in the first you had a 9.8% chance of winning that league. As it is a 12 person league, someone else could have won it also drafting a RB in the first. In fact, there would have probably been 6-7 owners that also did so. If everything is equal, each team should have An 8.3% chance of winning (100%/12). So, last year drafting a RB in the first gave you a 1.5% edge.
Of course that won't necessarily be the case this year, as the sample size of one year (2014) is awfully small and so much is contingent on the specific players drafted in the 1st last year. Now if this continues to recur over the next 3-4 years, I'd be much more convinced.
I find the arguments for team construction much more convincing, because it is less based on where you took players.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Got it. Agree the sample size is small. The results will also be skewed because they had kickers last year. Now that kickers are removed, you can slot extra backup running backs. The zero RB strategy would not have been possible last year as there was not enough roster space in a draft and forget it.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He's just a guy. A guy with a job we'd all like to have of course, but my guess is we all know just as much as him. This isn't exactly a science (although in these formats, there's a little more 'science' to it I guess).
BroadwayG
Footballguy
They reduced the number of draft slots from 22 down to 20 so there isn't enough roster space for zero RB this year either.
plastik
Footballguy
Yeah, I was just looking over some of his rosters and it struck be how he seems very overexposed to some players. I wonder how diversified he is across all his teams. For example he takes Perriman in the 7th almost every time. Lots of Stevie Johnson between the 12-14th. Eifert often.
If someone with access to the developers data is able to I would LOVE to see some statistics on how some of the guys like Silva do this year....pros like:
Evan S
@lateroundQB
Smbloom
Thefakefootball.com
@ffrittle
ourmanflint
Footballguy
Last year:
Evan S - 0 for 6
@lateroundQB - 5 for 34
Bloom - 3 for 11
ThefakeFootball.com - 4 for 23
@ffrittle - 10 for 67
plastik
Footballguy
Added %. Wow. Really nice for Bloom, and Decent for everyone but Silva, actually. Thanks for this!
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Don't quote facts at Touchdown There, he'd prefer to remain in his safe space where starting RBs are evil and you should only take backups because every RB taken in the first 3 rounds is destined to be injured.
Solid non-sequitur, but are you going to offer up any actual information pertaining to the ridiculous statements you're making? Probably not, because you don't have any. Right?
msudaisy26
Footballguy
How much did you win when you bet Adrian Peterson wouldn't stand a chance? He had a major injury all 3 years he played in college.
Borden
Footballguy
Evan S - 0 for 6 (0%) -$60, 0% Return
@lateroundQB - 5 for 34 (15%) +$160, 47% Return
Bloom - 3 for 11 (27%) +190, 173% Return
ThefakeFootball.com - 4 for 23 (17%) +170, 74% Return
@ffrittle - 10 for 67 (14.9%) +330, 49% Return
These number may be slightly improved as well for the people that got a second place finish and a Free Play.
@lateroundQB - 5 for 34 (15%) +$160, 47% Return
Bloom - 3 for 11 (27%) +190, 173% Return
ThefakeFootball.com - 4 for 23 (17%) +170, 74% Return
@ffrittle - 10 for 67 (14.9%) +330, 49% Return
These number may be slightly improved as well for the people that got a second place finish and a Free Play.
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I got 1 win and 2 free plays out of 16 leagues last year.
Borden
Footballguy
I think those numbers are why I like MFL10s so much. If you can be successful at them it produces a high return for the personal times it takes.
It's part of the reason why I started this thread. Let's find the strageties, roster construction and players that help us win these. We are all on the same team here.
Maybe Broadway can get use the average total points from the winning teams. Then we have a number to shoot for.
TDThere (or whoever) could get a list of back ups from last that came in behind an injured starter to produce decent fantasy seasons. And another list of back ups that just won the job. Perhaps injury back ups are more valuable than possible rotational back getting the job. Or visa versa.
Regardless of which stragety someone employs these lists and numbers will be tools we can use going forward.
I'm going to go back and try to look at ideal QB pairings. Top 2 drafted QB plus late round QB. QBs with big ups and downs vs steady QBs. Is there even such things as "Up and Down QBs" or "Steady QBs"? Best mid round QBs to pair. And so on. Basically, just trying to nail down the QB situation.
Also, if anyone has a player that they want me to look at (any plays the player was targeted or touched the ball) I will. I will also try to look into scheme, situation, etc. And give a fairly detailed report and best ball implications.
It's part of the reason why I started this thread. Let's find the strageties, roster construction and players that help us win these. We are all on the same team here.
Maybe Broadway can get use the average total points from the winning teams. Then we have a number to shoot for.
TDThere (or whoever) could get a list of back ups from last that came in behind an injured starter to produce decent fantasy seasons. And another list of back ups that just won the job. Perhaps injury back ups are more valuable than possible rotational back getting the job. Or visa versa.
Regardless of which stragety someone employs these lists and numbers will be tools we can use going forward.
I'm going to go back and try to look at ideal QB pairings. Top 2 drafted QB plus late round QB. QBs with big ups and downs vs steady QBs. Is there even such things as "Up and Down QBs" or "Steady QBs"? Best mid round QBs to pair. And so on. Basically, just trying to nail down the QB situation.
Also, if anyone has a player that they want me to look at (any plays the player was targeted or touched the ball) I will. I will also try to look into scheme, situation, etc. And give a fairly detailed report and best ball implications.
ourmanflint
Footballguy
In looking at Rittle's teams, its safe to say he did not employ the RB heavy early strategy. He did, however, draft a RB 1st in 8 of his 10 wins. He had 1 win where he started WR-WR-WR-WR. In only 4 of his 10 wins did he draft 2 or more RBs in his 1st four picks.
Borden
Footballguy
At least we've improved from the 1.01 time outs. OBJ got a lot of picks at 1.01 because of time outs early on.
ourmanflint
Footballguy
I've had this guy named @ccpatrick13 in several of my leagues who times out regularly. I did a quick google on his name and found his twitter page. As the time ticks away on his 8 hours to make a pick, he's busy tweeting his picks from his many other MFL 10's to his 189 followers. The last timeout was at pick 1.03.
Penguin
Footballguy
My guy was "Uncle Bubba"I've had this guy named @ccpatrick13 in several of my leagues who times out regularly. I did a quick google on his name and found his twitter page. As the time ticks away on his 8 hours to make a pick, he's busy tweeting his picks from his many other MFL 10's to his 189 followers. The last timeout was at pick 1.03.
