Betting on Potential Over Established But Not As Hyped Guys (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

Thinking today about the Bears. More specifically the 2007 Bears vs the 2006 Bears.

There are lots of reasons for the fall (and the Super Bowl loser "curse" isn't one in my opinion) but a big thing that stands out for me is locker room chemistry and the fact I think they lost some credibility between ownership and the players when they traded Thomas Jones and kept Cedric Benson.

I said it then that I would have dealt Benson.

You see the same thing every so often where a team has to decide between a lesser hyped guy that is playing really well and a highly hyped younger player that hasn't done much yet.

Drew Brees / Philip Rivers in San Diego comes to mind.

Derek Anderson / Brady Quinn too. (Although I think they'll keep both there)

It feels to me like the team often leans (incorrectly it feels) to the young guy. Banking on his potential.

We do the same in Fantasy Football. Every year, there are rookie or 2nd year players that are valued way too high and over established vets. It's the same thing - we're banking on discovering the next Randy Moss. In reality, we know the next can't miss Randy Moss usually turns out to be Calvin Johnson instead but we keep doing it.

Thoughts there?

J

 

[MrJimiT]

I hear what you're saying. I wonder though, how much the salaries involved are just as much of a determining factor to letting a veteran or a bonafied leader go? Sometimes I just think that it might be nice if the NFL allowed teams to sign their star players and not have it effect the salary caps. I think the NBA does something like this.

 

[Joe Bryant]

I hear what you're saying. I wonder though, how much the salaries involved are just as much of a determining factor to letting a veteran or a bonafied leader go? Sometimes I just think that it might be nice if the NFL allowed teams to sign their star players and not have it effect the salary caps. I think the NBA does something like this.

You're right of course jimi T in that salaries are a huge factor in the decision. I think pride is a big factor. Teams have a very hard time admitting they made a mistake on a guy with a high draft pick. J

 

[Brock Middlebrook]

In redraft, the vets have more value. In a dyansty league, at the beginning of the year, who would have rather had, Thomas Jones or Cedric Benson?

For NFL teams, youn need to put it in Dynasty context.

 

[Doug Drinen]

Drew Brees / Philip Rivers in San Diego comes to mind.Derek Anderson / Brady Quinn too. (Although I think they'll keep both there)It feels to me like the team often leans (incorrectly it feels) to the young guy. Banking on his potential.

Brady / BledsoeRomo / BledsoePalmer / KitnaBulger / WarnerRudi Johnson / Corey Dillon is an interesting case, but I think it worked out well for the Bengals.So is Edge James / Marshall Faulk in Indy. Given the salaries, I think the Colts are glad about their decision there.

 

[GreenNGold]

In redraft, the vets have more value. In a dyansty league, at the beginning of the year, who would have rather had, Thomas Jones or Cedric Benson?For NFL teams, youn need to put it in Dynasty context.

I disagree, even in a Dynasty format we knew that Thomas Jones is the better runner than Cedric Benson. The Bears just flat out blew it on this one. As a Packer fan, I rejoiced when I heard the trade. We already knew cedric sucked and making him the top back wasn't going to suddenly make him better. Although Jones has not done nearly as well on the jets as I was expecting, he would have put up much better numbers if he was still in chicago as opposed to what benson has done there. Just because it is "dynasty" does not mean all of your players should be fresh out of college. You can't win superbowls with potential. You need experienced, proven, veterans as well.

 

[BoltBacker]

I think your point is a good one and it really played out in the RB's last summer. There were a ton of backup RB's that were thought to much better prospects than the "boring" RB's in front of them.

(I'll throw out the rookies, we never really know what they'll do before they actually start playing)

McAllister/Bush

Taylor/Jones-Drew

Jones/Barber

Foster/Williams

Dunn/Norwood

... are the ones I can think of off the top of my head. I targeted the starter in all those situations as the flashy backup was going several rounds earlier in some cases. McAllister got hurt, but the play of Bush still underscores my point. The one instance when I wish I would have grabbed the backup with all the "potential" is Jones/Barber.

I can't remember a season when so many backups were ranked ahead of the starting RB's ahead of them. Best year I can ever remember getting value late at RB with relatively low risk since you were talking about starting RB's. Foster/93ADP, Taylor/80, Jones/68, Dunn/100. Like I said, Jones didn't work out very well but as far as the rest the boring starter was a much better value than the exciting backup.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I can agree with a lot of this. In Andre Johnson's rookie year I traded an aging Owens for Johnson and a 1st rounder. I am JUST NOW seeing dividends on that trade, and Owens is still producing top tier.

YEARS ago I traded Tiki Barber (after his first good year) for a 2nd rounder. BURNED............

I am a lot more careful with the veteran trading now.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Drew Brees / Philip Rivers in San Diego comes to mind.Derek Anderson / Brady Quinn too. (Although I think they'll keep both there)It feels to me like the team often leans (incorrectly it feels) to the young guy. Banking on his potential.

Brady / BledsoeRomo / BledsoePalmer / KitnaBulger / WarnerRudi Johnson / Corey Dillon is an interesting case, but I think it worked out well for the Bengals.So is Edge James / Marshall Faulk in Indy. Given the salaries, I think the Colts are glad about their decision there.

The salary cap forces teams to invest towards the future, and that results in the more than occasional gamble on potential over a known but aging quantity. Sometimes it works out for the better, sometimes it doesn't.

 

[FUBAR]

Drew Brees / Philip Rivers in San Diego comes to mind.Derek Anderson / Brady Quinn too. (Although I think they'll keep both there)It feels to me like the team often leans (incorrectly it feels) to the young guy. Banking on his potential.

Brady / BledsoeRomo / BledsoePalmer / KitnaBulger / WarnerRudi Johnson / Corey Dillon is an interesting case, but I think it worked out well for the Bengals.So is Edge James / Marshall Faulk in Indy. Given the salaries, I think the Colts are glad about their decision there.

TO / Jerry Rice Addai / EdgeDeuce / Ricky WilliamsShaun Alexander / Ricky WattersYoung / MontanaYoung / McNair