Bitcoin-Explain to me how to buy these things (2 Viewers)

[Captain Cranks]

Just like the FOMO into garbage projects by the retail investor was the sign of a nearing top, the disgruntled retail guy throwing in the towel is a sign of a nearing bottom. If you don't have confidence in the technology and are just hoping to get rich off speculation, this industry isn't for you. I imagine we'll see some of you again after the market has run up 2-3X, though. Rinse and repeat. 

 

[Desert_Power]

Just like the FOMO into garbage projects by the retail investor was the sign of a nearing top, the disgruntled retail guy throwing in the towel is a sign of a nearing bottom. If you don't have confidence in the technology and are just hoping to get rich off speculation, this industry isn't for you. I imagine we'll see some of you again after the market has run up 2-3X, though. Rinse and repeat. 

Yeah. Personally, I've always been very skeptical of cypto as an investment while always being fascinated by the technology. I find dabbling with the wallets fascinating, have done some mining, and even taken some beginner programing courses about smart contracts. 

Part of why a lot of these "garbage" projects are appealing is we still do not know what type of application crypto will really have in the real world. So anything that sounds somewhat plausible could have massive upside. 

From an investment perspective, I still like the analogy of selling pick-axes to miners during a gold rush. So companies that make money on facilitating the crypto space may be a good place to be.

Also, as an actual banking guy, I'm really interested in how the usage and adoption of stablecoins evolve. There are many similarities to the so called shadow banking (money fund/eurodollar) ecosystem including it's role in creating leverage. A lot of what we see in crypto now is straight textbook financial panic dynamics. Interested to see how this all evolves, particularly when regulators come calling.

 

[SFBayDuck]

Just like the FOMO into garbage projects by the retail investor was the sign of a nearing top, the disgruntled retail guy throwing in the towel is a sign of a nearing bottom. If you don't have confidence in the technology and are just hoping to get rich off speculation, this industry isn't for you. I imagine we'll see some of you again after the market has run up 2-3X, though. Rinse and repeat. 

I haven't sold any crypto yet, other than liquidating the USDC I had earning 7% interest as I can get more than that in an iBond these days, and with these exchanges halting withdrawals I didn't feel too comfortable with that money sitting there anymore.  But I'm not convinced I want to DCA in here with BTC or ETH either, although it's awfully tempting.  Call me skeptical but not out by any means.  

Now I have to go find that ETH I transferred somewhere months ago to buy an NFT that I didn't buy because the gas fees were 20% of the purchase price.

 

[Whyatt]

Seems like an awful lot of work needed to figure out what the "garbage projects" are.

Did Terra and Luna qualify?  How about Celsius? I wonder what percent of account holders realized withdrawals could be frozen. Or if Coinbase account holders know that if the company goes belly-up, their assets could be lost?  

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Just like the FOMO into garbage projects by the retail investor was the sign of a nearing top, the disgruntled retail guy throwing in the towel is a sign of a nearing bottom. If you don't have confidence in the technology and are just hoping to get rich off speculation, this industry isn't for you. I imagine we'll see some of you again after the market has run up 2-3X, though. Rinse and repeat. 

Maybe…but we’re in unprecedented times.  With inflation raging like it hasn’t for 40 years not to mention parts of the ecosystem, failing spectacularly (Luna, Celsius, 3AC)…my thinking is that it should be a pretty barren place ‘investor’ wise for quite some time.

This is an interesting thread to read thru.  The last bear market, there was like a 6 month silence (no posts) here…so just that fact that it’s still decently active shows that it has a broader fanbase and has a better chance at remaining in the zeitgeist.

I wasn’t around for the ICO craze,  but it is interesting to see the dearth of coins that were able to survive the 2018-2019 period and prosper.  There were coins that did survive, but kind of just meandered along this 2020-2021 bull market (LTC, XRP, BCH, EOS).

I think where crypto is though in its lifecycle if it hopes to survive is legitimate real world use cases.  From my vantage point, if there is a singular disappointment that’s come from the last 2+ years, it’s the lack of these from the consumer side.  Yes, Visa is using ETH as a settlement later and there are a couple of others.  NFT’s had their moment, but with most priced in ETH, have lost close to 80% of their $$ value without taking into account that the market itself now is ice cold.

So there will be a market bottom and I’d surmise that BTC/ETH will survive and eventually thrive again as most of the alt coin market as it exists today dies.  BUT, and there is a big but here…I can’t help but think that the entire crypto space missed a pretty good opportunity these last 2+ years.  It’s a solution looking for a problem.  BTC IMO is the only one that actually solves a real world problem (but it’s immaturity as an asset proved to overwhelming to hold on to its price/value when the world came out of COVID).  ETH doesn’t even heat, but it can in the hands of responsible growth and adoption.

For me, BTC has two concerns.  1) The next halving.  Many will point to the halving as significant for exponential price action.  That’s been the case throughout its history.  But with much of it mined by 2024, I wonder if that’s now a red herring.  Much like there was no ‘blow off top’ this past cycle, could 2024 disappoint on this front as well?  TBD.  2) CBDC’s.  Count me as someone who actually thinks these are necessary for BTC to gain adoption.  Quite frankly, no one knows what it is yet.  Is it a payment network? A currency?  A store of value?  Digital gold?  I think CBDC’s are necessary for BTC to have a foil.  If BTC’s foils are other altcoins, then it remains shouting within the sphere that is its own ecosystem which proved to be smaller than a pimple on a flys #### when the ish hit the fan.  And with the exception of China, we feel at least 5-6 years out from that minimum.

So, it could be awhile.  Just my 

 

[Captain Cranks]

Maybe…but we’re in unprecedented times.  With inflation raging like it hasn’t for 40 years not to mention parts of the ecosystem, failing spectacularly (Luna, Celsius, 3AC)…my thinking is that it should be a pretty barren place ‘investor’ wise for quite some time.

This is an interesting thread to read thru.  The last bear market, there was like a 6 month silence (no posts) here…so just that fact that it’s still decently active shows that it has a broader fanbase and has a better chance at remaining in the zeitgeist.

I wasn’t around for the ICO craze,  but it is interesting to see the dearth of coins that were able to survive the 2018-2019 period and prosper.  There were coins that did survive, but kind of just meandered along this 2020-2021 bull market (LTC, XRP, BCH, EOS).

I think where crypto is though in its lifecycle if it hopes to survive is legitimate real world use cases.  From my vantage point, if there is a singular disappointment that’s come from the last 2+ years, it’s the lack of these from the consumer side.  Yes, Visa is using ETH as a settlement later and there are a couple of others.  NFT’s had their moment, but with most priced in ETH, have lost close to 80% of their $$ value without taking into account that the market itself now is ice cold.

So there will be a market bottom and I’d surmise that BTC/ETH will survive and eventually thrive again as most of the alt coin market as it exists today dies.  BUT, and there is a big but here…I can’t help but think that the entire crypto space missed a pretty good opportunity these last 2+ years.  It’s a solution looking for a problem.  BTC IMO is the only one that actually solves a real world problem (but it’s immaturity as an asset proved to overwhelming to hold on to its price/value when the world came out of COVID).  ETH doesn’t even heat, but it can in the hands of responsible growth and adoption.

For me, BTC has two concerns.  1) The next halving.  Many will point to the halving as significant for exponential price action.  That’s been the case throughout its history.  But with much of it mined by 2024, I wonder if that’s now a red herring.  Much like there was no ‘blow off top’ this past cycle, could 2024 disappoint on this front as well?  TBD.  2) CBDC’s.  Count me as someone who actually thinks these are necessary for BTC to gain adoption.  Quite frankly, no one knows what it is yet.  Is it a payment network? A currency?  A store of value?  Digital gold?  I think CBDC’s are necessary for BTC to have a foil.  If BTC’s foils are other altcoins, then it remains shouting within the sphere that is its own ecosystem which proved to be smaller than a pimple on a flys #### when the ish hit the fan.  And with the exception of China, we feel at least 5-6 years out from that minimum.

So, it could be awhile.  Just my 

Quick hit responses going down the line:

- Yeah, I think we have further to fall and are by no means out of the woods, but the retail trader's emotions is usually a good contrarian indicator. The guys that made god money in 2021 were the ones who built positions during the times we're in now. I don't see this cycle being any different.

- I'm more bullish on the potential use cases than you seem to be. Digital identification, banking the unbanked, player ownership of gaming assets, metaverse, spam deterrents, decentralized capital raising and equity distribution, social tokens for community building and incentives. The list goes on.

- The real miss the last two years is the lack of clear regulation by the US. Once they set the rules, a lot of money moves into the space, not only for speculation, but to fund and support the innovation the tech needs.   

Good read, DW. I always appreciate your contributions on this board.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Seems like an awful lot of work needed to figure out what the "garbage projects" are.

Did Terra and Luna qualify?  How about Celsius? I wonder what percent of account holders realized withdrawals could be frozen. Or if Coinbase account holders know that if the company goes belly-up, their assets could be lost?  

More or less work than the months you spent on this forum pushing a biotech stock that's now down 92%?

Nothing personal meant by it, you seem like a decent enough dude, but I had to take a jab at ya on that one

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Yeah, I think we have further to fall and are by no means out of the woods, but the retail trader's emotions is usually a good contrarian indicator. The guys that made god money in 2021 were the ones who built positions during the times we're in now. I don't see this cycle being any different.

Perhaps, but crypto has only existed in an expansionary money environment.  So, this cycle might be different…at least the length of the downturn.

I'm more bullish on the potential use cases than you seem to be. Digital identification, banking the unbanked, player ownership of gaming assets, metaverse, spam deterrents, decentralized capital raising and equity distribution, social tokens for community building and incentives. The list goes on.

Yeah…banking the unbanked certainly is one, but that IMO is still mostly in the BTC realm.   But the others feel years away or are not IMO game changing (spam deterrent).  Even Meta/FB is trying to guide to a 3-5 year roadmap for their projects in this area.  That actually should have been a top signal when they changed their name.  One other aspect of the space that I think could take awhile to come to a mass level of consumption is the security of it.  Last 6 months, the amount of scams/rug pulls/hacks…it’s been a lot.  Feels like a function of too much/too fast.

The real miss the last two years is the lack of clear regulation by the US. Once they set the rules, a lot of money moves into the space, not only for speculation, but to fund and support the innovation the tech needs.   

True, but if the US let’s regulation founder and that in turn hurts a nascent technology and industry from trying to replace your currency as a global reserve currency…that’s tough to WTF about.  Sure the US dragged their feet…and they’ll continue to do so now that it’s a sub $1T asset class again.

 

[Runkle]

Dipped at the start of covid 

Crashing now

... So much for being a hedge against a collapsing economy

 

[fruity pebbles]

Dipped at the start of covid 

Crashing now

... So much for being a hedge against a collapsing economy

People are getting wiped out which I hate to see. Bitcoin in particular has been billed as digital gold or a store of value given its finite number. Unfortunately, it acts more like a leveraged Nasdaq ETF. 

 

[BigGDan]

Btc has somehow never traded below it's 200 day moving weekly average.  Like ever. It's more or less at that level now.  A close below 20k and another exchange or two going bankrupt and then what?   Gonna need monkey pox stimmy money to bounce it. 

This is not accurate at all.  Also what you wanted to say is the 200 week moving average which bitcoin has mos def traded below, albeit not for long periods of time.  But to your point, yes, buying bitcoin while price is trading near the 200 week has historically been the best times to buy bitcoin.  It's there now, so y'all better be buying.

Also, anyone who has sold in the last weeks.... congrats, you're the weak hands that have sold your positions to strong hands like me.  In a few years when bitcoin worth hundreds of thousands, you will regret selling.  This asset ain't for everyone.  Here's my promise, all of you will eventually own bitcoin and you will deserve whatever price you end up paying for it.  Best of luck.

 

[Osaurus]

Love the price on graphics cards coming down and inventory going up. Thanks crypto. 

 

[BigGDan]

Just like the FOMO into garbage projects by the retail investor was the sign of a nearing top, the disgruntled retail guy throwing in the towel is a sign of a nearing bottom. If you don't have confidence in the technology and are just hoping to get rich off speculation, this industry isn't for you. I imagine we'll see some of you again after the market has run up 2-3X, though. Rinse and repeat. 

This is exactly right.  95% of people who invest in "crypto" are only in it to get rich quick.  But that's not what bitcoin is about.  Bitcoin is freedom from crappy government fiat money.  Any other motivation for getting into bitcoin will backfire on you.  Most of you on here who are bagging on the corn have no thorough understanding on what it is, what its capable of and the freedom it allows us.  I see many know-it-alls here and you all are very wrong about bitcoin.  Bitcoin is not crypto and crypto is not bitcoin.  There's bitcoin then everything else.

 

[jm192]

This is exactly right.  95% of people who invest in "crypto" are only in it to get rich quick.  But that's not what bitcoin is about.  Bitcoin is freedom from crappy government fiat money.  Any other motivation for getting into bitcoin will backfire on you.  Most of you on here who are bagging on the corn have no thorough understanding on what it is, what its capable of and the freedom it allows us.  I see many know-it-alls here and you all are very wrong about bitcoin.  Bitcoin is not crypto and crypto is not bitcoin.  There's bitcoin then everything else.

I mean

You guys post about the potential of the massive gains and how bitcoin is going to be worth hundreds of thousands.  Then you post "Don't let getting rich be your motivation.  Use it to get free of fiat."  

You guys contradict yourselves so much that I can't take the arguments seriously.

 

[BigGDan]

Dipped at the start of covid 

Crashing now

... So much for being a hedge against a collapsing economy

In the short term, it appears bitcoin is correlated to stocks.  When the dust settles there will be no correlation and those people who stacked the corn and educated themselves will benefit.  Everyone else will have to start over.  It's going to be the toughest decade any of us have ever lived through.  Are you prepared?

 

[BigGDan]

I mean

You guys post about the potential of the massive gains and how bitcoin is going to be worth hundreds of thousands.  Then you post "Don't let getting rich be your motivation.  Use it to get free of fiat."  

You guys contradict yourselves so much that I can't take the arguments seriously.

Not a contradiction.  Exchange your inferior fiat for the superior bitcoin.  That's the play.  Nothing more, nothing less.  The timeline is years/decades not months.

 

[jm192]

Not a contradiction.  Exchange your inferior fiat for the superior bitcoin.  That's the play.  Nothing more, nothing less.  The timeline is years/decades not months.

Except, you said in an earlier post "one day when bitcoin is worth hundreds of thousands..."

So, you are contradicting yourself.  It's a get rich play one minute, and it's not the next.  

 

[BigGDan]

Wonder if he still thinks I should refi my house to buy crypto. 

Absolutely!  Right now at these prices!!  If you buy bitcoin below $20k right now, in a few years you will have 10x your investment while simultaneously exchanging crappy fiat for a much superior asset. 

 

[jm192]

This is not accurate at all.  Also what you wanted to say is the 200 week moving average which bitcoin has mos def traded below, albeit not for long periods of time.  But to your point, yes, buying bitcoin while price is trading near the 200 week has historically been the best times to buy bitcoin.  It's there now, so y'all better be buying.

Also, anyone who has sold in the last weeks.... congrats, you're the weak hands that have sold your positions to strong hands like me.  In a few years when bitcoin worth hundreds of thousands, you will regret selling.  This asset ain't for everyone.  Here's my promise, all of you will eventually own bitcoin and you will deserve whatever price you end up paying for it.  Best of luck.

LOL @ "the strong hands."

This reads like a pressure sales technique.  Like, the price is crashing, and it's all there for the taking on the cheap.  But you need to stop and convince the rest of us of it's value.  If it's going to be worth so much, stop telling the world about it.  Buy it all.  Make your millions.

But instead this reads like the questionable financial advisor that's trying to make a commission.  "You're going to be sorry you didn't buy this."  

A lot of people feel Bitcoin relies on "the greater fool" theory.  And here you are trying to convince us all of how stupid we are.  You can't make this stuff up.  

 

[BigGDan]

Except, you said in an earlier post "one day when bitcoin is worth hundreds of thousands..."

So, you are contradicting yourself.  It's a get rich play one minute, and it's not the next.  

Not at all.  Sorry you're confused.  Making a price prediction is simply a comparison of value with a unit of measurement we're all familiar with (USD).  My suggestion is to never sell bitcoin because the world will be using BTC as a global reserve currency.  I'm suggesting to stack the asset and never sell.  Exchange one asset for a better one.  Again, sorry you're confused by my post.

 

[jm192]

Not at all.  Sorry you're confused.  Making a price prediction is simply a comparison of value with a unit of measurement we're all familiar with (USD).  My suggestion is to never sell bitcoin because the world will be using BTC as a global reserve currency.  I'm suggesting to stack the asset and never sell.  Exchange one asset for a better one.  Again, sorry you're confused by my post.

Ah yes, the Bitcon bro's "You just don't understand." You guys always fall back on that.

 

[beer 30]

We still buying the dip here fellas? 
 

I’m kidding. I bailed a long time ago, good luck to you all riding the wave.

 

[BigGDan]

LOL @ "the strong hands."

This reads like a pressure sales technique.  Like, the price is crashing, and it's all there for the taking on the cheap.  But you need to stop and convince the rest of us of it's value.  If it's going to be worth so much, stop telling the world about it.  Buy it all.  Make your millions.

But instead this reads like the questionable financial advisor that's trying to make a commission.  "You're going to be sorry you didn't buy this."  

A lot of people feel Bitcoin relies on "the greater fool" theory.  And here you are trying to convince us all of how stupid we are.  You can't make this stuff up.  

I'm not sure why so many people get angry at me for simply encouraging you to better your lives.  There is literally nothing in it for me, just trying to help and get people motivated to learn more about bitcoin.  Not sure why that rubs you in such a bad way.  My motivations are to help the masses.  I don't like hierarchy. I don't like that politicians and executives have so much leverage, money and power over us. I want we the people to take back control.  That only happens (financially) with bitcoin.  Please focus your anger elsewhere.  I'm here to help, friend.

 

[BigGDan]

Ah yes, the Bitcon bro's "You just don't understand." You guys always fall back on that.

Putting words in my mouth?  Why so angry at me?  I didn't say you don't understand.  You're clearly confused though and that's ok. I'm still trying to figure out why so many of you are so sensitive and defensive about bitcoin.  It was literally created for we the people as a form of money that is not controlled by governments or central banks.... yet many of you are angry about that.  It's very bizarre. I can't figure it out.  

 

[jm192]

I'm not sure why so many people get angry at me for simply encouraging you to better your lives.  There is literally nothing in it for me, just trying to help and get people motivated to learn more about bitcoin.  Not sure why that rubs you in such a bad way.  My motivations are to help the masses.  I don't like hierarchy. I don't like that politicians and executives have so much leverage, money and power over us. I want we the people to take back control.  That only happens (financially) with bitcoin.  Please focus your anger elsewhere.  I'm here to help, friend.

"Hey man I'm on your side."

After

You're the weak hands.  You deserve whatever price you get.

I keep waiting for compelling arguments to convince me that I should buy the dip.  And instead, I read this kind of snark.  Followed by "I'm trying to help you."  

Correct me if I'm wrong, but as a Bitcoin holder, the more people you convince to "buy in," the higher the value should go.  So it would certainly seem that there's something in it for you.  

 

[jm192]

Putting words in my mouth?  Why so angry at me?  I didn't say you don't understand.  You're clearly confused though and that's ok. I'm still trying to figure out why so many of you are so sensitive and defensive about bitcoin.  It was literally created for we the people as a form of money that is not controlled by governments or central banks.... yet many of you are angry about that.  It's very bizarre. I can't figure it out.  

I think we've reached the gaslighting stage.  

I'm not angry.  I'm pointing out the contradictions and inconsistencies.  And instead of being able to defend your positions, you resort to "don't be angry at me."  There is no anger.  

 

[BigGDan]

Last post for awhile since so many of you get easily triggered by my eagerness to help.

Like I said bitcoin will go below $20k a few weeks back... it's going as low as $12.5 k but I don't think it will get that low.  I've purchased 1.5 bitcoin since May 6 and have an order to buy another 1.5 at the following prices:

0.5 @ $16,500

0.5 @ $15,500

0.5 @ $14,850

Good luck.  I hope many of you are buying now because THIS IS THE TIME TO BUY before the next bull run.  Never sell, only stack and best of luck.  

 

[BigGDan]

I think we've reached the gaslighting stage.  

I'm not angry.  I'm pointing out the contradictions and inconsistencies.  And instead of being able to defend your positions, you resort to "don't be angry at me."  There is no anger.  

I did explain and you still think I'm promoting a get rich quick scheme.  Not sure what to tell you at this point.  The USD valuation compare is only because the whole world runs on USD.  Eventually the world will look at 1 BTC = 1 BTC like we do the USD now but until then, we must use USD as a valuation tool.  But since I only advocate for stacking and never selling, then what I'm suggesting is trading one asset for another to better your future life.  

 

[Capella]

Absolutely!  Right now at these prices!!  If you buy bitcoin below $20k right now, in a few years you will have 10x your investment while simultaneously exchanging crappy fiat for a much superior asset. 

Good luck man. I have a friend heavily invested and I’m worried about him. Hope it works out but it’s not for me. 

 

[Captain Cranks]

Ah yes, the Bitcon bro's "You just don't understand." You guys always fall back on that.

What should we say you fall back on?

It's easy (and mindless) to be bearish when the rest of the market is with you.  Where were you last year? 

 

[jm192]

What should we say you fall back on?

It's easy (and mindless) to be bearish when the rest of the market is with you.  Where were you last year? 

On the sidelines.  Probably just not understanding it.  

 

[Captain Cranks]

On the sidelines.  Probably just not understanding it.  

Gotcha. Well, seems like you've really got it nailed down at this point.

 

[Terminalxylem]

What should we say you fall back on?

It's easy (and mindless) to be bearish when the rest of the market is with you.  Where were you last year? 

I don’t pretend to completely understand it, but the concept of decentralized, minimally regulated money sounds great. Like everybody else, I can’t stand banks, or the government. The main concerns I have for the future of cryptocurrency:

1. Until conventional currency fades away, crypto seems superfluous. It needs to start somewhere, of course, but I’m not convinced any existing cryptocurrency will be able to overcome the barriers imposed by the status quo - financiers and politicians have too much at stake to allow it to happen. 

2. Because it’s not user friendly, intermediary exchanges will be around for a while, with commensurate risk of shenanigans. Access should get easier over time, but I find it hard to believe it will ever be integrated enough to overtake fiat currency. Sure, we’ve adopted groundbreaking technology like the internet and smart phones before,  but there’s still a big chunk of the population who doesn’t utilize them effectively. Everybody needs to use money.

3. The anonymity and lack of regulation allows cryptocurrency to enable a lot of shady/criminal activity. I’d prefer we not make crime easier.

4. Because it really isn’t necessary atm, all the resources/energy being funneled into crypto are wasteful imo. That would change if cc can supplant traditional currency to a meaningful extent.

5. It remains extremely volatile, which is potentially a consequence of its lack of regulation.

With all those considerations, I think crypto is unlikely to replace fiat currency in our lifetimes. The more likely outcome is conventional banks will use it as impetus for streamlining their operations, and adopting a modified e-currency of their own - one that is centralized and regulated. So not really crypto at all.

I guess the better reason to be excited about this stuff is faith in blockchain as a tool. While I’ve read a little about the prospects, I still see it mostly as a solution looking for a problem.

Given all those concerns, how long do you believe it will take before crypto is our preferred currency? What’s the most realistic near-term application of blockchain?

 

[Captain Cranks]

I don’t pretend to completely understand it, but the concept of decentralized, minimally regulated money sounds great. Like everybody else, I can’t stand banks, or the government. The main concerns I have for the future of cryptocurrency:

1. Until conventional currency fades away, crypto seems superfluous. It needs to start somewhere, of course, but I’m not convinced any existing cryptocurrency will be able to overcome the barriers imposed by the status quo - financiers and politicians have too much at stake to allow it to happen. 

2. Because it’s not user friendly, intermediary exchanges will be around for a while, with commensurate risk of shenanigans. Access should get easier over time, but I find it hard to believe it will ever be integrated enough to overtake fiat currency. Sure, we’ve adopted groundbreaking technology like the internet and smart phones before,  but there’s still a big chunk of the population who doesn’t utilize them effectively. Everybody needs to use money.

3. The anonymity and lack of regulation allows cryptocurrency to enable a lot of shady/criminal activity. I’d prefer we not make crime easier.

4. Because it really isn’t necessary atm, all the resources/energy being funneled into crypto are wasteful imo. That would change if cc can supplant traditional currency to a meaningful extent.

5. It remains extremely volatile, which is potentially a consequence of its lack of regulation.

With all those considerations, I think crypto is unlikely to replace fiat currency in our lifetimes. The more likely outcome is conventional banks will use it as impetus for streamlining their operations, and adopting a modified e-currency of their own - one that is centralized and regulated. So not really crypto at all.

I guess the better reason to be excited about this stuff is faith in blockchain as a tool. While I’ve read a little about the prospects, I still see it mostly as a solution looking for a problem.

Given all those concerns, how long do you believe it will take before crypto is our preferred currency? What’s the most realistic near-term application of blockchain?

One thing I want to clear up is that in the vast majority of projects, their currency isn't meant to replace or compete with fiat. Rather than a replacement for dollars, think of each cryptocurrency as each project's "bucks". For example, when I go to Chuck E Cheese, I exchange dollars for Chuck E Cheese coins to play games. Same thing with ETH. If I want to participate in its ecosystem, I have to convert dollars to ETH. Now I have the right "currency" to play their games. 

To your point, what are the "games" that are going to drive people to buy ETH? So far the biggest winner has been NFTs, which, for the most part, is just another form of speculation (although there's seeds of community building and equity distribution going on beneath the surface). The play-to-earn gaming industry was another segment that showed some promise in 2021. However, neither of those drove real world demand for most people and so I understand the skepticism and impatience.

Despite the current market situation, I remain confident that the fruits of the intellectual capital currently developing and refining the space will come to bear soon. 

ETA - You will not see me say that I know BTC or ETH or any of these projects has a guaranteed path to $x. They're networks with a huge head start in adoption (which is a big deal), but things can change in the blink of an eye (MySpace).

 

[Terminalxylem]

One thing I want to clear up is that in the vast majority of projects, their currency isn't meant to replace or compete with fiat. Rather than a replacement for dollars, think of each cryptocurrency as each project's "bucks". For example, when I go to Chuck E Cheese, I exchange dollars for Chuck E Cheese coins to play games. Same thing with ETH. If I want to participate in its ecosystem, I have to convert dollars to ETH. Now I have the right "currency" to play their games. 

To your point, what are the "games" that are going to drive people to buy ETH? So far the biggest winner has been NFTs, which, for the most part, is just another form of speculation (although there's seeds of community building and equity distribution going on beneath the surface). The play-to-earn gaming industry was another segment that showed some promise in 2021. However, neither of those drove real world demand for most people and so I understand the skepticism and impatience.

Despite the current market situation, I remain confident that the fruits of the intellectual capital currently developing and refining the space will come to bear soon. 

Fair enough.

If we’re just creating a bunch of parallel financial ecosystems, I’m not a fan, unless there is some tangible benefit exceeding the waste created in the process. Speculative investing isn’t good enough.

 

[KGB]

Dipped at the start of covid 

Crashing now

... So much for being a hedge against a collapsing economy

I dont know of anyone in this thread that said to hold BTC because of a possible collapse 

 

[KGB]

We still buying the dip here fellas? 
 

I’m kidding. I bailed a long time ago, good luck to you all riding the wave.

LOL

Im waiting for 14K BTC and maybe 10K to get into anything.  Moved some money back into my stock account.  day trding that

 

[cubd8]

I dont know of anyone in this thread that said to hold BTC because of a possible collapse 

Without having read through this thread recently, and being a holder of some BTC.....BTC was often sited as a "digital gold" and a hedge against inflation. Inflation is out of control right now and I had thought this would inflate the value. Gold has been relatively flat, but hasn't lost much value of late so that's not exactly being used as a safe haven either. I just heard Pomp on a show recently (before the last price drawdown) say it is a hedge on inflation because the price from ~3K to the higher prices we saw since March of 2020.

Are expectations for Bitcoin, which hasn't been around for a bear macro environment just not realistic? It's only been around for 13 years. Maybe it's too early in this economic cycle as people are dumping all sorts of risk assets, and Bitcoin has been correlated to tech.

 

[cubd8]

LOL

Im waiting for 14K BTC and maybe 10K to get into anything.  Moved some money back into my stock account.  day trding that

I plan on buy some as well. I was buying the dip into the 30K range, but had to slow down. 

I don't see a major urgency to buy at 18-20K given the current climate. We could be near a low or we could still drop another 10-15% easy and fall back to 10K. Nobody knows what the bottom is, but I think there will be opportunities to buy lower than current prices. We'll see.

For now, with higher prices on everything, just starting to slowly (too slow) give myself some limited financial options to buy some stocks, bitcoin and try to save cash.

It's scary out there right now so having cash (even cash whose value has been deflated) is needed. We don't  know how bad the macro economy will get - job losses may increase, inflation doesn't appear to be leaving, Russia/China, etc....

 

[KGB]

I plan on buy some as well. I was buying the dip into the 30K range, but had to slow down. 

I don't see a major urgency to buy at 18-20K given the current climate. We could be near a low or we could still drop another 10-15% easy and fall back to 10K. Nobody knows what the bottom is, but I think there will be opportunities to buy lower than current prices. We'll see.

For now, with higher prices on everything, just starting to slowly (too slow) give myself some limited financial options to buy some stocks, bitcoin and try to save cash.

It's scary out there right now so having cash (even cash whose value has been deflated) is needed. We don't  know how bad the macro economy will get - job losses may increase, inflation doesn't appear to be leaving, Russia/China, etc....

Agreed.  and my thoughts may change.  but as of today im thinking to start buying anything when BTC hits 14 and then 10k might bottom.  i dont think it goes below 10k.

if it does, I start selling furniture and dumping in.

 

[cubd8]

Agreed.  and my thoughts may change.  but as of today im thinking to start buying anything when BTC hits 14 and then 10k might bottom.  i dont think it goes below 10k.

if it does, I start selling furniture and dumping in.

Yep, going to be interesting to see where this bottom goes. I think at ~15K, I have to start thinking of what I can do to buy into this. I don't think anyone would want my furniture though. I do have a ESPP program that I am planning to sell right away at the end of June, but hoping to use that for my emergency cash fund. Would like to be able to buy a bitcoin though at~15K or under knowing the upside of the asset.

 

[Desert_Power]

Another big red day today. Fascinating watching this leverage unfold. When does $MSTR have to start selling?

 

[culdeus]

That btc would be the world fiat currency is a new one for me.  You can barely buy a overstock 50" DLP TV with the stuff.  

 

[stbugs]

That btc would be the world fiat currency is a new one for me.  You can barely buy a overstock 50" DLP TV with the stuff.  

New one? That’s the entire basis for the several hundred thousand/1 million per Bitcoin theories.

My only enjoyment of it dropping (I own a very small amount) is Saylor getting crushed. I knew a few employees and he was right there with fraud at the start of the dot com blowup and was a #####. Very much enjoying him having to explain margin calls.

 

[Captain Cranks]

New one? That’s the entire basis for the several hundred thousand/1 million per Bitcoin theories.

My only enjoyment of it dropping (I own a very small amount) is Saylor getting crushed. I knew a few employees and he was right there with fraud at the start of the dot com blowup and was a #####. Very much enjoying him having to explain margin calls.

What is he saying about margin calls?

 

[stbugs]

What is he saying about margin calls?

He has just had to say that they can put up more collateral instead of having the loan called because those Bitcoins are less than 50% of the loan value.

 

[Captain Cranks]

He has just had to say that they can put up more collateral instead of having the loan called because those Bitcoins are less than 50% of the loan value.

Based on what I've read, they're doing just fine. The vast majority (96%) of their holdings were financed with cash, equity, or 1.5% unsecured debt and only around $200 million is secured debt. 

 

[stbugs]

Based on what I've read, they're doing just fine. The vast majority (96%) of their holdings were financed with cash, equity, or 1.5% unsecured debt and only around $200 million is secured debt. 

The aren’t fine. Their average purchase price for everything is 50% higher than current. The loan is small but it’s a business with declining revenues that has also lost 33% (+ with loans) of their cash on hand since he made the move. Their next earnings in a month could be a doozy.

I’ve said this in here before. If you want to invest in crypto, do so, but buying MSTR is the wrong way to do it IMHO.

 

[ren hoek]

This is exactly right.  95% of people who invest in "crypto" are only in it to get rich quick.  But that's not what bitcoin is about.  Bitcoin is freedom from crappy government fiat money.  Any other motivation for getting into bitcoin will backfire on you.  Most of you on here who are bagging on the corn have no thorough understanding on what it is, what its capable of and the freedom it allows us.  I see many know-it-alls here and you all are very wrong about bitcoin.  Bitcoin is not crypto and crypto is not bitcoin.  There's bitcoin then everything else.

Most people that buy bitcoin anymore are just trying to make money.  It’s a hyperspeculative extension of a huge financial bubble that money printing created.  I don’t think it’s proven to be that resilient against market conditions, only that the price can skyrocket during an unprecedented stock market run.  

I used to sound kind of like you wrt to crypto and ‘freedom’.  But the percentage of people actually using it like that must be absurdly small.  I’m probably more familiar with how to navigate wallets and exchanges than 90% of the average investors and I never use it to actually transact with.  

How can it be taken seriously for daily use when it rises & falls 30% at the drop of a hat?  I believe El Salvador has lost 50% or so on their bitcoin investment, how is that supposed to be viable against much more stable currencies?  I assume most people are like me and just holding these things until they go up in value, once someone is willing to pay more for it than I did?  

I do like crypto long term (not bitcoin)- partially because sovereign currencies are doomed in a way cryptos are mathematically almost incapable of.  I do think they have compelling use cases, like BAT & Brave for example.  I do agree that they could have an important function as money when the inevitable happens.  

But all I’m seeing is this boutique stuff like NBA NFTs and ape JPEG beanie babies.  I don’t think we’re seeing adoption by the average Joe.  And I don’t think we ever will so long as bitcoin (and every other blockchain) is used like a speculative toy for whales and ‘get rich quick’ ponzi schemes.  The days of bitcoin being fun and truly disruptive tech are over- it’s just a gambling token run by a cult now.  

Doesn’t seem like we’ll ever see organic price discovery based on this fantasy version of bitcoin where people use it to replace fiat currencies.  It can be the road to lambos or it can be money, but it can’t be both.  

 

[Captain Cranks]

Just speaking to BTC here, the investment thesis is that it's a network of finite supply that can be used to store and transfer financial value. If the world adopts it like some expect, it stands to reason that its market cap will reach $10T, the value of gold. If you assume a 15,000,000 BTC accessible supply (a lot has been or will be lost forever), that's over $600K per coin. At current prices, your risk/reward is 1:33. I like that bet. Others might not. To each his own.