bulger2holt
Footballguy
Where do you think he ranks from here out ? RB2 ? RB3 ? I think Woodhead being out inflated his numbers. His value is probably high right now due to his huge week, would you trade him or hold him ?
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BJGE going forward (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter bulger2holt
- Start date
I think he could be as good as a high end number 2 rb. The Patriots are starting to realize that they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. With that in mind I think the Patriots are going to run a lot more (see yesterdays game) in an effort to control the clock and keep their defense off the field...Ridley and Woodhead will be involved, but BJGE is still the rb to own in NE.
loose circuits
Footballguy
most people have just as many concerns about his long term potential, so you might as well hold and get what you can out of him
DevilintheDetail
Footballguy
An interesting point when evaluating him - I believe that he has scored 19 TDs since the start of the '10 season, more than any other player in the NFL. He's pretty good in the red zone, obviously, and he's got a front-and-center role on the best offense in the league. He's the #11 RB in the NFL in non-PPR right now and I think he finished #12 or so last year even though he only started about 2/3 of the games. Hard to see how he isn't at least in the top 15 RBs.
Football Critic
Footballguy
I think the important thing is that Brady likes the guy and feels comfortable with him. The rookies may play a part in that offense, but BJGE shown this past weekend he is the lead guy.
Louisville Slugger
Footballguy
I agree 100% but I would suggest that if the Patriots are truly going to run the ball more to keep their defense off the field BJGE could be a low end #1 rb. He finished in the top 12 last year and wasn't a fulltime player at the start of the season last year.'Thumper said:
Phlash
Footballguy
He's a hard player to evaluate. He will be involved every week, and has a good chance of scoring a TD every week. Will he get yards every week? There's no guarantee of that. Some weeks you will have to be prepared for a 12 carry, 45 yard performance (near his floor), whereas some weeks you'll get 130 yards and 1-2 TDs (near his ceiling).
As a player, he's great. His talents have improved each year he's been in the league, and he's playing much more confidently these days. He'll lower his shoulder and accelerate into contact to gain additional yards, and is a menace in the red zone. Will BB use him enough to justify starting him? That depends on your team. He's a great RB3, and ok RB2. I'd rather have someone more consistent as my RB2, personally.
As a player, he's great. His talents have improved each year he's been in the league, and he's playing much more confidently these days. He'll lower his shoulder and accelerate into contact to gain additional yards, and is a menace in the red zone. Will BB use him enough to justify starting him? That depends on your team. He's a great RB3, and ok RB2. I'd rather have someone more consistent as my RB2, personally.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
BJGE finished last year as RB18 in ppg on the strength of his TDs. Given the other backs on the roster, that's probably about where he should be ranked moving forward (mid RB2 trending worse if other backs get a lot of work).
DevilintheDetail
Footballguy
But last year he wasn't the starter for the first chunk of the season. This year he is RB11 so far and the Pats offense is scoring a lot more points than last season. He also looks a lot better than last year. So why would he "regress" to RB18? Just the fear of the rookies stealing touches? Not disagreeing with you necessarily, but you seem to perpetually lowball BJGE's production. That happened all last season and again during this preseason when you had him pegged for numbers that he looks like he's going to blow through in the next couple of games. The Pats offense is pretty explosive right now and BJGE looks like a focal point. Hard to see how he isn't somewhere around RB12. At least.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
People are going to see what they want to see. Here were BJGE carries each game last year including the playoffs . . .5, 10, 16, 16, 10, 11, 17, 9, 18, 21, 12, 18, 21, 6, 19, 20, 9Here are his carries for this year . . .7, 17, 10, 16, 27FOR WHATEVER REASON, it does not appear that BJGE gets a full workload from week to week compared to some other RBs throughout the league. I count 12 games with 15 or more carries and 10 of under 15 carries. That's almost 50%/50%. That alone keeps him out of RB1 territory in my book, no matter what else people will want to bring up.
DevilintheDetail
Footballguy
That's helpful, thanks. The last two games it seems the Pats have really re-committed to the run and, accordingly, BJGE has been getting a lot more carries. I think we can all agree that if he's getting 16-27 carries per game, he's got a good shot at RB1 numbers. So, what's your take on whether they will keep trying to run the ball that much? Likely, given the need to control the clock and keep the defense off the field? Either way, I do think that the # of carries issue is somewhat mitigated due to the goal line role he gets to play in this offense. Even with a high degree of variance in carries, he has more rushing TDs than any other player in the NFL over the last season and a half. TD production has been very consistent with him.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
People in general need to realize that "the big picture" involves more than looking at the most recent game that was played and what the results were. After Week 1, Tom Brady was going to throw for 8,000 yards. Last week Ridley was going to get 1,500 yards from scrimmage on the season. This week BJGE is going to get the ball 25 times a game. None of those are likely to happen.People were suggesting that Green Ellis was going to lose his job altogether after a mediocre showing against Buffalo. Now he will be a fantasy RB1? What changed?IMO, it's unlikely that green Ellis will get a Larry Johnson workload. Like I have been saying for all the NE backs, all of them will do something at some point, but it's unlikely that one of them will do everyting all the time. It's still some sort of committe approach and that is unlikely to change.Put another way, BJGE now has had 5 games of 20 or more carries in 43 career regular season and post season games. I don't see where he will become a bell cow running back. He's had 15 carries 14 times. Yes, he scores lots of TDs (which is why people should want to play him), but he generally is going to average 13-15 carries a game and not normally get into the 20s. He also rarely catches passes, so he's not really a dual threat.It stands to reason that Woodhead, Ridley, and Vereen will at some point all get to play. And at some point soon Faulk may be back (not that he will take a ton of carries from BJGE) and could also make another mouth to feed. People also need to remember that the Pats game plan changes from week to week and they some weeks will feature the run and other times ignore it. Long story short, BJGE is unlikely to get a heavy workload on a consistent basis and other backs on the team will normally get more carries and touches than this past week.
bulger2holt
Footballguy
It may be the perfect 'sell high' opportunity right now. This may be his high point.
Warhogs
Footballguy
In redraft or dynasty. I still can't find any dynasty owners willing to give up anything close to the value of the numbers he puts up. I'm not sold on him having long term value but for what I can get for him I will just keep him.In redraft I think he has a good shot at having ow end RB1 or high end RB2 numbers all year barring injury.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Squarely as a RB#2. He is going to get the double digit TDs and probably 900 to 1000 yards by that end of the year. Doubt we see another game like this week but 50-70 yards and a TD every other game or so is decent consistent production that is hard to complain about. League I have him in I have been very happy with his production especially since it is non-ppr where he is more valuable.
Note - Have Ridley as handcuff as he is the only threat to really fully replace BJGE production, which still could happen.
Note - Have Ridley as handcuff as he is the only threat to really fully replace BJGE production, which still could happen.
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ponchsox
Footballguy
Not sure if this is a big deal but BJGE was limited at practice today:
Limited Partcipation
CB Leigh Bodden (thumb)
S Sergio Brown (chest)
CB Ras-I Dowling (hip)
WR Julian Edelman (ankle)
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (toe)
DL Albert Haynesworth (back)
TE Aaron Hernandez (knee)
WR Matthew Slater (ribs)
OL Sebastian Vollmer (back)
RB Danny Woodhead (ankle)
Limited Partcipation
CB Leigh Bodden (thumb)
S Sergio Brown (chest)
CB Ras-I Dowling (hip)
WR Julian Edelman (ankle)
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (toe)
DL Albert Haynesworth (back)
TE Aaron Hernandez (knee)
WR Matthew Slater (ribs)
OL Sebastian Vollmer (back)
RB Danny Woodhead (ankle)
