Whenever a player gets too big a portion of their fantasy production from TDs, I usually downgrade them next season. Whenever a player comes out of nowhere later in their career to be top three at their position, I am leery of a repeat. Whenever a player is in his prime and coming off several consecutive 100 catch seasons and produced at that same level again, but barely scored any TDs, then I like that player to bounce back. Bowe and Lloyd are coming off of career years. Bowe won't likely repeat his TD numbers, Lloyd won't likely be a stud in a John Fox offense. They should both be useful fantasy starters, but they look like poster children for regression to the mean. Marshall scored three TDs last year. It seems like he is due for a progression to the mean. (is that a real term?)Marshall..Bowe/Lloyd
Marshall tops this group for me. Too much talent and the catches were there last year--just not the TDs. Look for him to be more prolific in the red zone this year. Despite an overall lacklustre offense in Miami, I still like him to post 8+ TDs.Next is Lloyd. I believe in him, but the loss of McDaniels and Lloyd's limited track record put him behind Marshall for me.Bowe's 2010 sure looks like a career year to me. I don't expect a repeat, especially with Weis gone and KC looking like it might be in for a big step back as a group.Regression to the meanWhenever a player gets too big a portion of their fantasy production from TDs, I usually downgrade them next season.
Whenever a player comes out of nowhere later in their career to be top three at their position, I am leery of a repeat.
Whenever a player is in his prime and coming off several consecutive 100 catch seasons and produced at that same level again, but barely scored any TDs, then I like that player to bounce back.
Bowe and Lloyd are coming off of career years. Bowe won't likely repeat his TD numbers, Lloyd won't likely be a stud in a John Fox offense. They should both be useful fantasy starters, but they look like poster children for regression to the mean.
Marshall scored three TDs last year. It seems like he is due for a progression to the mean. (is that a real term?)
Marshall
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Bowe/Lloyd
I'd be willing to bet that all three had fluke 2010's, which means Marshall is the play. I think he's substantially more talented and while Chad henne isn't inspiring, neither is Matt Cassell.
