So I was analyzing TEs by ADP and came to the bottom of the list to find Brent Celek. I remembered that last year he started off super slow right up until mid Oct. when Vick finally realized he had a TE to throw to. Celek finished with a 62/811/5 stat line that year, very respectable #'s. He also finished 9th in 1PPR leagues. I decided to extrapolate Celek's production from weeks 7-17 over a whole year and was pretty surprised. If Vick looked towards Celek from the get go, his stat line would have looked something like 77/1073/7 by years end, enough to make him the 3rd best TE of last year in 1PPR (226 PTs). Forgive me if I'm not the first person to mention this, but this just boggles my mind.
Also, Celek was still able to produce when Vick went down, putting up stat lines of 6/60, 5/75 and 3/21.
EDIT: Celek will probably be asked to do some extra blocking with Jason Peters out for the year.
Also, target totals from last year Djax (104) Celek (97) Maclin (96). This is bound to change this year with Maclin 100% healthy but I was surprised to see he was THAT involved in the passing game as well. I didn't think the targets would be distributed so evenly.
Your assumption that there was an actual change in Vick's decision on how much to throw to Celek is tenuous. Statistical variance can create streaks where a player's production will appear to drastically change for some reason when in reality its nothing more than said variance. Do you have any quotes from Vick/Philly coaching staff that specifically mention that they focused more on getting the ball to Celek after week 7? Even if so, do you have good reason to believe that this year they will follow that plan instead of the plan they seemed to use in the earlier weeks?
From what I've read, PHI's O-line was hurting towards the beginning of last season. Celek was asked to block as PHI waited for them to regain health. Also, even without LT Jason Peters this year, PHI's O-line is ranked rather high on various sites. Rotoworld has them ranked as the 7th best, Bleacher Report as the 8th best and FFToolbox as the 10th best. He could be utilized much the same as he was through week 7-17 this year.Here's a progression of news from last year, I'll highlight some stuff.
Brent Celek was used as a blocker on more than 50 percent of his Week 1 snaps, and was targeted just three times.
As expected, the Eagles have again made Celek a block-first tight end this season. You could do worse for a bye week or injury fill-in, but Celek shouldn't be starting in any format.
- Sept. 17th
He starts to breakout..
Brent Celek is being used as a blocker on 30 percent of pass plays this season.
Last year, Celek blocked on 23 percent of pass plays. And during his breakout 2009 season, he was used as a pass-blocker just 14 percent of the time. The Eagles' offensive line is regaining health and improving, but we'd like to see Celek be used as a receiver much more before even considering an add. Celek is averaging 2.1 catches for 19.1 yards so far this season.
- Oct. 20th
Brent Celek hauled in a season-high seven catches for 94 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's win.
With the Cowboys leaving the middle of the field almost completely uncovered, Michael Vick locked onto his tight end, targeting him a team-high nine times. An excellent evening, but almost certainly a one-off for a player who was averaging 2.2 catches and 19.2 yards coming into Week 8. His home remains on the waiver wire.
- Oct. 31st
Brent Celek stayed in to block on just four of 35 pass plays when the Eagles played the Cowboys in Week 8.
On the season, Celek has been asked to block on 25 percent of all pass plays. But on that day, the chains were taken off and he racked up seven catches for 94 yards with a touchdown. Celek also blocked just 12 percent of the time against the Jets last week. He's trending in the right direction as a low-end TE1 in Saturday's rematch with the Cowboys.
- Dec 21st
Brent Celek caught five passes for 75 yards in Sunday's loss to the Patriots.
Celek is now averaging 5.5 catches for 64 yards over his past six games, and has very much re-established himself as a big part of the Eagles offense and legitimate option in fantasy leagues. He's worth a flier in all formats if you're hurting at tight end.
- Nov. 27th
Brent Celek caught six passes for 86 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's Week 17 game against the Redskins.
Celek was used primarily as a blocking tight end this season, but has been praised for his versatility by the Eagles' coaching staff. While he's no longer capable of producing at the level he did in 2009, his 811 yards receiving put him behind only Jimmy Graham, Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez among NFC tight ends.
- Jan 1stIn the middle of all these blurbs, Celek suffered from a #### ton of injuries and played through them all. The dude is tough as nails. Anyway, yeah it looks like the slow start was solely a product of PHI's offensive line not being at full strength. As they recovered, Celek was used more and more in the passing game. Thank you for making me look farther into the topic. It had nothing to do with Vick.
