Brock Bowers and recent history of elite rookie TEs (1 Viewer)

[FreeBaGeL]

Bowers value is through the roof right now, and rightfully so. But given the history of elite rookie TEs and what they went on to do afterwards, is there a risk there that's not being considered highly enough?

Bowers ADP right now in FFPC startup drafts (slight TE premium, 1.5ppr) is 1.04 overall. That's ahead of guys like Bijan, Nabers, and Gibbs.

And I get it, what's not to love, a 22 year old TE that just had an historic rookie season.

But does the list below give anyone pause? These are the 10 best rookie TE seasons.

1. Brock Bowers
2. Mike Ditka
3. Kyle Pitts
4. Jeremy Shockey
5. Sam LaPorta
6. Keith Jackson
7. Charlie Young
8. Evan Engram
9. Cameron Cleeland
10. Dalton Kincaid

Obviously Bowers' season was the best of the bunch, but does it give anyone else concern that in this list, basically all 9 of the other guys failed to live up to the expectations (from a fantasy standpoint) from their rookie season, most of them by a whole lot? Even the guys we consider historically great like Ditka and Jackson never matched their rookie numbers again, and saw their numbers (from a fantasy standpoint) drop off rapidly.

None went on to be the elite kind of receiving TE that would warrant a 1st round startup pick, much less a top 5 startup pick. And yes it's too early to call it a career for LaPorta, Pitts, Kincaid, but it's safe to say they all went on to lose immense value in year 2.

For whatever reason, essentially all of these elite career receiving TEs in history (especially recent history) did NOT have an elite rookie season. Maybe coincidence, smallish sample size, etc. But is a top 5 overall startup pick too much to bet that 9 out of 9 was just a coincidence, and #10 will be different?

ETA: If we shift to recent history (since 2000) it doesn't really get any better either. Of the top 20 rookie TE seasons since 2000, only George Kittle (19th) went on to actually have an elite fantasy career.

 

[Gatorade]

In the past players used to take time to develop. Especially with TE and WR. That is not so anymore. Teams like to use that shiny new toy right away. Once teams have seen you the first time around they adjust and cover you differently. It may take a year.
Great TEs in the past like Tony Gonzales, Antonio Gates and now Travis Kelce just kept getting better and better.
I don't think Bowers will have a problem with production unless he gets no help at all. Unlike some of the others on that list, I don't think Bowers will be turned into a blocking TE or a decoy.

 

[JohnnyU]

Dalton Kincaid was supposed to be one of these stud TEs and has disappointed. We know what Pitts is by now. Nothing is guaranteed.

 

[sushinsky4tsar]

The only name that really means anything to me relative to Bowers is LaPorta.

To some extent, Shockey or even Winslow because I can imagine how valued they would have been in dynasty at their peak and how quickly that disappeared. Even a lesser guy like Dawson Knox looked like he would be a real nice fantasy asset for quite some time, kind of along the lines of a Cam Cleeland.

Pitts and Kincaid are guys that haven't reached the heights that were hoped. Truthfully, I haven't completely given up even if it's just finding middle ground between where they are and what the expectation was. Those are guys that might have scared someone off from selecting Bowers last year, but no longer belong in the same conversation.

Back to LaPorta, he was an absolute darling in his rookie breakout year. Now, I find that he's often omitted from the conversation of the top fantasy TEs. Still highly coveted, but you're probably not making the same killing you would have made taking him to market after his rookie campaign.

From that standpoint, I can see the rationale of shopping Bowers to see if someone in your league gets silly. However, if you trade him for a haul and he's the Kelce TE advantage for the next seven years, whatever "haul" you received isn't going to be nearly enough.

 

[Donnybrook]

Broncos' Sean Payton sees 'a lot to work with' after drafting collegiate basketball player, TE Caleb Lohner

I used to play in a dynasty league with deep rosters. I would be adding. Could be a cheat code in the end zone vs average sized DBs,