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Buying low on highly targeted players ... (1 Viewer)

Chaser1439

Footballguy
This article has some incredible data!

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/targets.php?year=2013&startweek=7&week=7&pos=flex&team=all

Using this data can help you target players that are more involved in the gameplan than their statline would suggest. Some of these players are great buy low candidates, and some are available on most waiver wires.

Week 7 targets and stats

  1. Rob Gronkowski - 17 targets - 8 receptions, 114 yards, 0tds
  2. Cecil Shorts - 13 targets - 8 receptions, 80 yards, 0tds
  3. Steve Johnson - 13 targets - 6 receptions, 61 yards, 0 tds - buy low candidate
  4. Eric Decker - 13 targets - 8 receptions, 150 yards, 1 td
  5. Wes Welker - 12 targets - 7 receptions, 96 yards, 0 tds
  6. Kendall Wright - 12 targets - 9 receptions, 98 yards, 0 tds - buy low candidate
  7. Jason Avant - 12 targets - 3 receptions, 32 yards, 0 tds - waiver wire
  8. Brian Hartline - 11 targets - 6 receptions, 69 yards, 0 tds - buy low candidate
  9. Jeremy Kerley - 10 targets - 8 receptions, 98 yards, 1 td - waiver wire
  10. Jarrett Boykin - 10 targets - 8 receptions, 103 yards, 1 td - buy low candidate
  11. Mike Wallace - 10 targets - 5 receptions, 76 yards, 0 tds
  12. Michael Floyd - 10 targets - 6 receptions, 71 yards, 0tds
  13. Jordan Reed - 9 targets - 9 receptions, 134 yards, 1 td
  14. Jacquizz Rodgers - 9 targets - 8 receptions, 46 yards, 2 tds - buy low candidate
  15. Greg Little - 9 targets - 4 receptions, 49 yards, 0 tds - waiver wire
  16. Pierre Garcon - 8 targets - 5 receptions, 58 yards, 0 tds
  17. Brandon Gibson - 8 targets - 5 receptions, 40 yards, 2 tds - waiver wire
  18. Mike Brown - 8 targets - 5 receptions, 120 yards, 0 tds - waiver wire
  19. Harry Douglas - 7 targets - 7 receptions, 140 yards, 1 td
  20. Riley Cooper - 7 targets - 6 receptions, 88 yards, 0 tds - waiver wire
  21. Terrance Williams - 7 targets - 6 receptions, 71 yards, 1 td
  22. Cole Beasley - 7 targets, 6 receptions, 53 yards, 0 tds - waiver wire
  23. Peyton Hillis - 6 targets, 5 receptions, 45 yards, 0 tds - waiver wire
  24. Marvin Jones - 6 targets, 4 receptions, 57 yards, 1 td - waiver wire
  25. Tavon Austin - 5 targets, 5 receptions, 39 yards, 0 tds - waiver wire
 
Everything in context.

The theory is not bad - but its more important to understand why they were targeted, and whether that is sustainable. Was the primary receiver injured in the game? Was the primary receiver covered exceptionally well? Was the receiver playing against a bad DB - some teams are bad against WR2? Did the team fall behind requiring an adjustment to the normal game plan? New QB?

Seeing the stats without understanding the hows and whys is a trap most folks fall into.

 
How's this working out?

I'm starting to wonder if reception / target % (above certain no. of targets of course) isn't a better indicator of who might be emerging before they do. Marvin Jones is one guy, Terrance Williams is another, and now Mike Brown might be another.

 
Mike Wallace and Hakeem Nicks continue to get double digit targets each week without producing big numbers.

 

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