Calling out Colin Dowling (1 Viewer)

[TWP]

On first round busts, Colin states:

"Randy Moss compiled 310 yards and 5 touchdowns against the Colts and Titans. Remove those two games and he has less than 1,000 yards receiving and only 8 touchdowns among the other 14 games. I like Randy Moss and expect he'll be a solid receiver this season, but I don't think he is consistent enough anymore to warrant a first round pick."

Without those two monster games, Moss's stats are 66/956/8 over 14 games. That projects out to 75/1093/9 over 16 games or 164 fantasy points. Good enough for WR11 last year. WR11 this year has an ADP of 3.05. Point of comparison: Andre Johnson would have been WR10 last year projecting without his two best games. Even Chris Johnson would have only been the 8th best running back, projecting without his best two games.

So which is the more fair conclusion to draw?

A. Randy Moss will be a solid receiver but isn't consistent enough to warrant a first round pick

B. Randy Moss is an absolute beast who, even when removing his two monster performances last year, still would be a top 12 receiver worthy of an early round pick

 

[Miro Z]

Any top player will have several big performances during a season and if you remove then then of course his stats will not look so impressive.

However I don't think that's really the point with Moss. It was more that he appeared to lose interest or have some beef with the team at points last season and if you've been following Moss as long as I have, that's when there's trouble... the physical talent is never the issue, it's always the attitude.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

I never understood the "take out x game" mentality.

If we take out Aaron Rogers best two games he ranks right up there with Cutler (#13) in yards thrown and McNabb (#13) in TD's thrown.

Now I look at Andre Johnson and take away his best two games and we have the #1 WR that would now be the #8 ranked in yards and down in the 30's in TDs.

I still have Rogers in my top two QBs and I have Andre Johnson in my top two WRs and I feel rather comfortable with both.

 

[Grahamburn]

Why would anyone take away two monster games? They counted, right?

The appeal of drafting Randy Moss is knowing that he's going to have 10 catch 150 yard 3 TD games. That's WHY you draft him!

 

[Clifford]

Yep, 60 yards is your floor and the ceiling is winning your weak even if the rest of your team sleepwalks. That's what rocks about Moss. That said, I would rank him below AJ, and maybe Austin, but there aren't any other receivers that its reasonable to anticipate will outperform him.

And anytime you hear the take away games stuff in analysis you should just stop reading.

 

[Donsmith753]

Has anyone ever taken away the 2 best games from every single player and then seen the rankings. That's the only time I feel it'd be useful, help give an idea of consistency.

 

[NJ]

Pasquino has a great series of articles on "Quality Starts" where he breaks down every start to either fall into 3 different groups, I think they are excellent, quality or poor. Moss was top 3 in consistency in both non-PPR and PPR, right up there with AJ so I'm not sure how that makes him not consistent enough to warrant a first round pick?

 

[LittlePhatty]

I never understood the "take out x game" mentality.

Me either. Completely zeroing out stats for a couple of games makes no sense at all.If someone wanted to argue for replacing those games with "average" stats, that logic sits a little better with me.

But still, it proves nothing. You take these players because they will have big games like that.

It's like John Madden "duh" logic.

"If he had fewer catches, fewer yards and fewer TDs last year then he would have scored fewer FF points."

 

[renesauz]

I'm not sold on Moss as a top 5 WR this year myself, but I wouldn't dream of using this logic to explain why. I see him as a low end WR1/high end #2.

 

[redBourne]

On first round busts, Colin states:"Randy Moss compiled 310 yards and 5 touchdowns against the Colts and Titans. Remove those two games and he has less than 1,000 yards receiving and only 8 touchdowns among the other 14 games. I like Randy Moss and expect he'll be a solid receiver this season, but I don't think he is consistent enough anymore to warrant a first round pick."Without those two monster games, Moss's stats are 66/956/8 over 14 games. That projects out to 75/1093/9 over 16 games or 164 fantasy points. Good enough for WR11 last year. WR11 this year has an ADP of 3.05. Point of comparison: Andre Johnson would have been WR10 last year projecting without his two best games. Even Chris Johnson would have only been the 8th best running back, projecting without his best two games.So which is the more fair conclusion to draw?A. Randy Moss will be a solid receiver but isn't consistent enough to warrant a first round pickB. Randy Moss is an absolute beast who, even when removing his two monster performances last year, still would be a top 12 receiver worthy of an early round pick

Sorry if this has been touched, I'm at work and can't read the entire thread. But what you're saying is that we'll remove the two best games from Player X as outliers, project 14 games into 16, and then compare them to every other player at Player X's position, where every other player still retains their 2 best games. I don't see how this is good statistical analysis. Maybe if we threw out every WR's best two games and compared them all we'd get a better picture of consistency. Perhaps we need to remove not only the 2 best, but the 2 worst as well, and now we're down to only 12 games and our data is 3/4 of a season.

 

[Grahamburn]

I'm not sold on Moss as a top 5 WR this year myself, but I wouldn't dream of using this logic to explain why. I see him as a low end WR1/high end #2.

The only logical explanation for Randy Moss not finishing in the top 5 would be if he quits, succumbs to injury, or Tom Brady gets hurt. It's pretty difficult to predict injury, and if Randy wants to get one more pay day, which I'm sure he does, then he won't be quitting.The only seasons Randy Moss has ever finished outside the top 5 were his two years in Oakland, the year in 2004 where he missed 3 games (and still caught 13 TDs), and 2008 when Brady tore his ACL (finished 10th).Moss has 8 top 5 finishes in his 12 seasons, and has only finished outside the top 10 three times in his career.

 

[Jayrod]

The title should be "Callin' out Colin"

 

[FavreCo]

During Moss' big year, the OL was like a 6' high cement wall. Nobody got to Brady. He had all day that year. That wall has crumbled. Mankins isn't even there right now. That's a big factor in Moss game. Moss will get his but I wouldn't expect even last year's numbers without Mankins.

 

[David Yudkin]

Both Moss and Brady were banged up much of the season last year. Both look to be much sharper this year and Moss has been the talk of training camp. Given that he is in a contract year and montivated, Moss should have a very productive year this year.

 

[TWP]

Seems like the board consensus is that Colin should re-think his 'first round bust' selection. And his logic. I guess reading his response was more entertaining than reading one more "Steven Jackson is going to get injured" response, though.

 

[unckeyherb]

Has anyone ever taken away the 2 best games from every single player and then seen the rankings. That's the only time I feel it'd be useful, help give an idea of consistency.

Seems silly to do any exercise like that. Season is 16 weeks. If you were to do that however, (remove the best game) to figure out consistency, I'd say you'd have to take out everyone's worst game as well. Try to eliminate outliers along the entire spectrum to come up with a consistency rating. I, however, do not have the spare time. just draft Moss as your WR1. Its about as close to a no-brainer as there is.

 

[renesauz]

I'm not sold on Moss as a top 5 WR this year myself, but I wouldn't dream of using this logic to explain why. I see him as a low end WR1/high end #2.

The only logical explanation for Randy Moss not finishing in the top 5 would be if he quits, succumbs to injury, or Tom Brady gets hurt. It's pretty difficult to predict injury, and if Randy wants to get one more pay day, which I'm sure he does, then he won't be quitting.The only seasons Randy Moss has ever finished outside the top 5 were his two years in Oakland, the year in 2004 where he missed 3 games (and still caught 13 TDs), and 2008 when Brady tore his ACL (finished 10th).Moss has 8 top 5 finishes in his 12 seasons, and has only finished outside the top 10 three times in his career.

I'm not predicting him to fall off a cliff...just into the 9-14 area. He's aging and NE does not look nearly so dominant as it has in the past. Almost as important is that the NFL is chock full of impressive young WR's and is becoming more pass-happy then ever. (The differance between WR #5 and WR #14 is rapidly shrinking.) I have no issue with those predicting another top 5 finish because in the end, we're not really that far apart.ETA: A WR taken late first round finishing at WR10-12 is NOT a bust, only a mild dissapointment. SO I'm not even predicting bust.....

 

[Rushmore]

Both Moss and Brady were banged up much of the season last year. Both look to be much sharper this year and Moss has been the talk of training camp. Given that he is in a contract year and montivated, Moss should have a very productive year this year.

 

[SuperJohn96]

I like to take out all but a player's single best game when projecting...

The way I see it, Miles Austin is a lock for:

240 Targets

160 Receptions

4000 Receiving Yards

32 Receiving Touchdowns

 

[Righetti]

85 seems to be the biggest boom-or-bust player out there.

every year he has one game where he goes for one game where he goes 10/150/2 surrounded by about five games where he goes 3/38/0

 

[patrickmcgroin]

Both A and B apply.

 

[Nagle2998]

I didn't like his argument but I didn't read where he said Moss was a bust he just said he wasn't a top pick and really I agree but that doesn't mean I think he is Antonio Bryant.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

On first round busts, Colin states:"Randy Moss compiled 310 yards and 5

Spoiler

touchdowns

against the Colts and Titans. Remove those two games and he has less than 1,000 yards receiving and only 8

Spoiler

touchdowns

among the other 14 games. I like Randy Moss and expect he'll be a solid receiver this season, but I don't think he is

Spoiler

consistent

enough anymore to warrant a first round pick."Without those two monster games, Moss's stats are 66/956/8 over 14 games. That projects out to 75/1093/9 over 16 games or 164 fantasy points. Good enough for WR11 last year. WR11 this year has an ADP of 3.05. Point of

Spoiler

comparison

: Andre Johnson would have been WR10 last year

Spoiler

projecting

without his two best games. Even Chris Johnson would have only been the 8th best running back,

Spoiler

projecting

without his best two games.So which is the more fair

Spoiler

conclusion

to draw?A. Randy Moss will be a solid receiver but isn't consistent enough to warrant a first round pickB. Randy Moss is an absolute beast who, even when removing his two monster

Spoiler

performances

last year, still would be a top 12 receiver worthy of an early round pick

Remove the eight longest words in your post, and your argument completely falls apart.You'll have to do better than that.

 

[WVU Alum]

On first round busts, Colin states:"Randy Moss compiled 310 yards and 5

Spoiler

touchdowns

Spoiler

against the Colts and Titans. Remove those two games and he has less than 1,000 yards receiving and only 8

touchdowns

among the other 14 games. I like Randy Moss and expect he'll be a solid receiver this season, but I don't think he is

Spoiler

consistent

enough anymore to warrant a first round pick."Without those two monster games, Moss's stats are 66/956/8 over 14 games. That projects out to 75/1093/9 over 16 games or 164 fantasy points. Good enough for WR11 last year. WR11 this year has an ADP of 3.05. Point of

Spoiler

comparison

: Andre Johnson would have been WR10 last year

Spoiler

projecting

without his two best games. Even Chris Johnson would have only been the 8th best running back,

Spoiler

projecting

without his best two games.So which is the more fair

Spoiler

conclusion

to draw?A. Randy Moss will be a solid receiver but isn't consistent enough to warrant a first round pickB. Randy Moss is an absolute beast who, even when removing his two monster

Spoiler

performances

last year, still would be a top 12 receiver worthy of an early round pick

Remove the eight longest words in your post, and your argument completely falls apart.You'll have to do better than that.That include names?

 

[Arizona Ron]

On first round busts, Colin states:"Randy Moss compiled 310 yards and 5

Spoiler

touchdowns

Spoiler

against the Colts and Titans. Remove those two games and he has less than 1,000 yards receiving and only 8

touchdowns

among the other 14 games. I like Randy Moss and expect he'll be a solid receiver this season, but I don't think he is

Spoiler

consistent

enough anymore to warrant a first round pick."Without those two monster games, Moss's stats are 66/956/8 over 14 games. That projects out to 75/1093/9 over 16 games or 164 fantasy points. Good enough for WR11 last year. WR11 this year has an ADP of 3.05. Point of

Spoiler

comparison

: Andre Johnson would have been WR10 last year

Spoiler

projecting

without his two best games. Even Chris Johnson would have only been the 8th best running back,

Spoiler

projecting

without his best two games.So which is the more fair

Spoiler

conclusion

to draw?A. Randy Moss will be a solid receiver but isn't consistent enough to warrant a first round pickB. Randy Moss is an absolute beast who, even when removing his two monster

Spoiler

performances

last year, still would be a top 12 receiver worthy of an early round pick

Remove the eight longest words in your post, and your argument completely falls apart.You'll have to do better than that.Awesome

 

[TWP]

I didn't like his argument but I didn't read where he said Moss was a bust he just said he wasn't a top pick and really I agree but that doesn't mean I think he is Antonio Bryant.

Well, the article is called "First round bust" and the intro says "While a first round pick is usually awesome, there are occasional busts. Yep - sometimes, that highly-touted player just falls flat. We asked the Footballguys.com staff to pick their 2010 First Round Bust". So if he wasn't picking his first round bust, a guy who falls flat, then I'm not sure exactly what he was doing...

 

[texasbirdfan]

I know this is reducing to the ridiculous but, it's up to the OC, team, system, and QB not to mention if you have a healthy #2 and slot receiver to compliment a player. It is not all up to Moss on whether HE has a big game or not- if Belicheat can win with Welker or Maroney or Taylor pounding the ball then that is part of the equation for every high round fantasy pick

 

[jurb26]

Your 1st round bust will almost assuredly be a RB, not a WR.

 

[TWP]

Your 1st round bust will almost assuredly be a RB, not a WR.

Of course. There are 5 times as many RBs in the 1st round as WRs. But I'm guessing you meant because WRs are more predictable.

 

[jurb26]

Your 1st round bust will almost assuredly be a RB, not a WR.

Of course. There are 5 times as many RBs in the 1st round as WRs. But I'm guessing you meant because WRs are more predictable.

Yes, as a whole the few elite WR that will go in the 1st round are safer picks than the RBs in tier 2 IMO.

 

[Brady Gaga]

I'll counter Colin Dowling with....

If my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle.

And...

If you take out Colin's article on Randy Moss, I'd be smarter than I am now after having read it.

 

[gianmarco]

The better questions is:

Do Callin' and Colin rhyme?

 

[Abraham]

You know, I never saw this thread but my prediction turned out to be pretty solid.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

I certainly didn't see that implosion coming and to be fair I'm guessing that you probably didn't either but obviously it turned out very well for your prediction. I would have more than likely listened to David Yudkin on anything Pats related but even Moss's most ardent backers had to know that an implosion was always a possibility and he does carry at least a certain higher level of risk because of it.

 

[Sweet Love]

I certainly didn't see that implosion coming and to be fair I'm guessing that you probably didn't either but obviously it turned out very well for your prediction. I would have more than likely listened to David Yudkin on anything Pats related but even Moss's most ardent backers had to know that an implosion was always a possibility and he does carry at least a certain higher level of risk because of it.

He got to the plate, pointed his bat and knocked it out of the park...you can't take anything away from that prediction (oh, and he was so on target, he took a second to wink to the hot girl in Row #3). Plus, while there was the mental implosion, he did have an opportunity with TWO other teams and still did nothing. I think it is pretty sobering that this got bumped. Moss is at an average ADP of WR46...with all the hype coming out of camp, my guess is he bumps up about 10 spots between now and late August, and I have to say, I wonder if his true value has peaked at this point, and people are overpaying going forward.

 

[Grateful Parrot]

I certainly didn't see that implosion coming and to be fair I'm guessing that you probably didn't either but obviously it turned out very well for your prediction. I would have more than likely listened to David Yudkin on anything Pats related but even Moss's most ardent backers had to know that an implosion was always a possibility and he does carry at least a certain higher level of risk because of it.

He got to the plate, pointed his bat and knocked it out of the park...you can't take anything away from that prediction (oh, and he was so on target, he took a second to wink to the hot girl in Row #3). Plus, while there was the mental implosion, he did have an opportunity with TWO other teams and still did nothing. I think it is pretty sobering that this got bumped. Moss is at an average ADP of WR46...with all the hype coming out of camp, my guess is he bumps up about 10 spots between now and late August, and I have to say, I wonder if his true value has peaked at this point, and people are overpaying going forward.

Can't speak for the other team, but even though he was on the roster here in Titan town, he was never utilized. Young was a nutcase. Fisher only wants to run. Collins couldn't throw that far. He always under threw Moss and Britt. If you know your just a decoy, your not going to put in 100%. Between Moss utilization and Young's fits, those are reasons Fisher had to leave town.

 

[Shane Falco]

You know, I never saw this thread but my prediction turned out to be pretty solid.

was that your FavreCo alias?

 

[Sweet Love]

I certainly didn't see that implosion coming and to be fair I'm guessing that you probably didn't either but obviously it turned out very well for your prediction. I would have more than likely listened to David Yudkin on anything Pats related but even Moss's most ardent backers had to know that an implosion was always a possibility and he does carry at least a certain higher level of risk because of it.

He got to the plate, pointed his bat and knocked it out of the park...you can't take anything away from that prediction (oh, and he was so on target, he took a second to wink to the hot girl in Row #3). Plus, while there was the mental implosion, he did have an opportunity with TWO other teams and still did nothing. I think it is pretty sobering that this got bumped. Moss is at an average ADP of WR46...with all the hype coming out of camp, my guess is he bumps up about 10 spots between now and late August, and I have to say, I wonder if his true value has peaked at this point, and people are overpaying going forward.

Can't speak for the other team, but even though he was on the roster here in Titan town, he was never utilized. Young was a nutcase. Fisher only wants to run. Collins couldn't throw that far. He always under threw Moss and Britt. If you know your just a decoy, your not going to put in 100%. Between Moss utilization and Young's fits, those are reasons Fisher had to leave town.

To answer your question/thought, "why would he be a decoy"? I mean, if Calvin got traded to the Jags in week five, wouldn't you expect the to use him??? Moss was a WW pickup 9not going to deny that) and we know he tends to "play when motivated", but there is a difference when he folded on the Raiders when he was 27-28, versus now. He is older, he is not as fast, and he really is/has been a one-trick pony...unfortunately for him, that trick is not running 4 yards out across the middle, it is running past a CB and catching the ball 15+ yards out. He can't do that as well as he did when he was 25 (which is not a death sentence), but he also has not shown patience to live like a Devery Henderson and capitalize on your 3-5 targets per game...he wants, no NEEDS to be targeted like a slot guy and shows impatience when that does not happen.