Cam Newton vs Russell WIlson : Who would you pay big money for? (1 Viewer)

[ffldrew]

This Mike Shula offense hasn't been the best showcase for Cam. It is easily the most unimaginative offense in the NFL especially given the talents that Cam brings. The Seattle offense may rely on Lynch for the setup - but they have some great plays in the arsenal when they need to turn Wilson loose - and they know when to call them. They are both good QB's - I'd take Cam for the size and perhaps pay him just a bit more - then go out and get a real OC. I wish Cam had the attitude that Wilson has out on the field when the going gets tough - he was improved a bit last year in that department but has a bit further to go.

 

[Steelers4Life]

I think Cam has been the guy he's been because he had to. They haven't given him great weapons to work with in the passing game, the running game has been inconsistent at best, and the offensive line has been awful. He's had to rely on his legs because the offense didn't have much else to rely on. Kudos to him for being able to make something out of nothing so often.

Russell could afford to play things safe... the safe throws, the safe runs - because he's had the support of a great running game and a great offensive line, and an offense imaginative enough to take advantage of the skills that he has. Cam has had none of those things.

If you're going to have me pick which guy to pay and they're going to be playing on the same team, the answer isn't close at all, and it's Cam.

at calling the Seahawks offensive line 'great'.

During Wilson's 3 years in the NFL, Carolina has had a better run blocking OL and Seattle has had a better pass blocking OL, but Seattle's OL pass blocking has still been below average.

ETA: PFF grades from 2014 show the following:

Seattle had 11 OL who played last season.

Seattle OL cumulative overall grade: -45.2

Seattle OL cumulative pass blocking grade: -26.3

Seattle OL cumulative run blocking grade: -9.9

Seattle OL cumulative screen blocking grade: +1.5

Seattle OL cumulative penalties grade: -10.5

Carolina had 12 OL who played last season.

Carolina OL cumulative overall grade: -52.5

Carolina OL cumulative pass blocking grade: -51.7

Carolina OL cumulative run blocking grade: -6.7

Carolina OL cumulative screen blocking grade: +2.5

Carolina OL cumulative penalties grade: +3.4

The Carolina OL was much worse at pass blocking in 2014, but better at everything else.

No matter what you call the Seahawks offensive line, the inability of the Panthers to pass block is what leads to so many busted plays and Cam running so often to save the plays. By those numbers, the lines were comparable in everything except pass-blocking, which is a key differentiator if you want to compare the passing ability of the two quarterbacks. Give Cam more time, the threat of a dominant running game, and a clean pocket to pass in more often and I'd bet his passing numbers would be a lot different. Instead, he's running for his life against defenses that neither respect the running backs nor have to cover wide receivers for more than 3 or 4 seconds.

Add in the fact that the Seahawks' offense is built around Lynch and the Panthers' offense is built around Cam, their situations aren't even remotely similar.

The Panthers' play-calling has been atrocious, but that's another story.

If you give me a team and ask me which QB I'd want to lead it, Cam's the easy choice for me.

 

[Tau837]

I think Cam has been the guy he's been because he had to. They haven't given him great weapons to work with in the passing game, the running game has been inconsistent at best, and the offensive line has been awful. He's had to rely on his legs because the offense didn't have much else to rely on. Kudos to him for being able to make something out of nothing so often.

Russell could afford to play things safe... the safe throws, the safe runs - because he's had the support of a great running game and a great offensive line, and an offense imaginative enough to take advantage of the skills that he has. Cam has had none of those things.

If you're going to have me pick which guy to pay and they're going to be playing on the same team, the answer isn't close at all, and it's Cam.

at calling the Seahawks offensive line 'great'.

During Wilson's 3 years in the NFL, Carolina has had a better run blocking OL and Seattle has had a better pass blocking OL, but Seattle's OL pass blocking has still been below average.

ETA: PFF grades from 2014 show the following:

Seattle had 11 OL who played last season.

Seattle OL cumulative overall grade: -45.2

Seattle OL cumulative pass blocking grade: -26.3

Seattle OL cumulative run blocking grade: -9.9

Seattle OL cumulative screen blocking grade: +1.5

Seattle OL cumulative penalties grade: -10.5

Carolina had 12 OL who played last season.

Carolina OL cumulative overall grade: -52.5

Carolina OL cumulative pass blocking grade: -51.7

Carolina OL cumulative run blocking grade: -6.7

Carolina OL cumulative screen blocking grade: +2.5

Carolina OL cumulative penalties grade: +3.4

The Carolina OL was much worse at pass blocking in 2014, but better at everything else.

No matter what you call the Seahawks offensive line, the inability of the Panthers to pass block is what leads to so many busted plays and Cam running so often to save the plays. By those numbers, the lines were comparable in everything except pass-blocking, which is a key differentiator if you want to compare the passing ability of the two quarterbacks.

But that difference in pass blocking only existed in 2014. In 2013, the Panthers' pass blocking graded out considerably higher than Seattle's. Yet Wilson was the better QB in 2013 as well.

 

[cr8f]

Wilson, I don't want a superman. Seattle's team concept is better than Carolinas.

 

[FUBAR]

Wilson, I don't want a superman. Seattle's team concept is better than Carolinas.

yep. which really has little to do with which QB is better.

 

[Chase Stuart]

In the last 25 years there is basically 2 QBs that people would define as below average (Dilfer/Johnson) and 1 QB (Flacco - who played out of his mind that playoffs) who people would call average that have won a Super Bowl. You don't need an elite QB to win but you sure as heck need a very good one.

Hostetler '90? Brady '01? Eli '07? Roethlisberger '08? You could make the case that those 4 were far from special those years during the regular season, too, which bumps you to 7 out of 25. But yeah, not too much.

 

[PDX_Seahawk]

Wilson. I wouldn't want any QB leading my team that feels compelled to smile and motion "first down" even when their team is getting smashed. Or pretend they're Superman under the same circumstance. That's a real issue for me at the QB position. Yes, I'm obviously a Seahawks fan, but you could ask the same question sans Wilson and I'd probably take the opposite of Cam (within reason). He's insanely unlikable and I don't trust his judgment at all.

But then again, hindsight is 50/50 haha.....

 

[The Commish]

Fine, I'll go down the rabbit hole once again. How are we measuring "better"? Are we stuck looking at the stats of each or can we actually look at the teams and what transpired on the field of play that aren't shown on the stat line. I've given JWB my reasons for why I think Cam's ceiling is higher already.

Or better yet, I'll pose this question.

If you had to choose either the Panthers or the Seahawks to get to the super bowl and you were forced to bet on it, would you bet Seattle with Cam or Carolina with Wilson....each of the last two year?

 

[Tau837]

How are we measuring "better"? Are we stuck looking at the stats of each or can we actually look at the teams and what transpired on the field of play that aren't shown on the stat line.

In no particular order, I value quality of their play (e.g., as measured by statistics/grades), winning, honors/awards, clutch play, and leadership to assess who is better. IMO this collectively favors Wilson.

PFF grades look at what transpires on the field of play that isn't necessarily shown in statistics. PFF grades for the past 3 years since Wilson entered the NFL:

2012: Wilson +41.7, Newton +19.5

2013: Wilson +25.5, Newton +10.8

2014: Wilson +7.3, Newton +13.5

The fact that Newton grades out higher than Wilson in 2014 even though Wilson had better statistics proves that these grades aren't directly correlated to statistics.

IMO Wilson's dropoff last year is largely attributable to the loss of quality targets (Harvin, Rice, Tate, Miller, etc.).

Those are all regular season grades. Here are their postseason grades: Wilson +15.0 in 8 games, Newton +1.7 in 3 games.

If you had to choose either the Panthers or the Seahawks to get to the super bowl and you were forced to bet on it, would you bet Seattle with Cam or Carolina with Wilson....each of the last two year?

I would rank the combinations as follows: Seattle with Wilson > Seattle with Newton > Carolina with Wilson > Carolina with Newton

This question you are posing is different than the one we have been discussing. Supporting cast matters, and Seattle's team around the starting QB is better than Carolina's. I don't think anyone would dispute that. That doesn't prove anything about which one of them is the better QB.

 

[Borden]

Voted on both. Both are good young QBs.

As far as the debate goes, if you were the Buffalo Bills and could get either guy for the same contract, who would you take and why?

 

[Ghost Rider]

I think Cam has been the guy he's been because he had to. They haven't given him great weapons to work with in the passing game, the running game has been inconsistent at best, and the offensive line has been awful. He's had to rely on his legs because the offense didn't have much else to rely on. Kudos to him for being able to make something out of nothing so often.

Russell could afford to play things safe... the safe throws, the safe runs - because he's had the support of a great running game and a great offensive line, and an offense imaginative enough to take advantage of the skills that he has. Cam has had none of those things.

If you're going to have me pick which guy to pay and they're going to be playing on the same team, the answer isn't close at all, and it's Cam.

You do realize that Wilson is a big reason why their running game is great, right? He accounted for approximately 1/3 of their rushing yards in 2014.

 

[FUBAR]

Wilson. I wouldn't want any QB leading my team that feels compelled to smile and motion "first down" even when their team is getting smashed. Or pretend they're Superman under the same circumstance. That's a real issue for me at the QB position. Yes, I'm obviously a Seahawks fan, but you could ask the same question sans Wilson and I'd probably take the opposite of Cam (within reason). He's insanely unlikable and I don't trust his judgment at all.

But then again, hindsight is 50/50 haha.....

Really? I live in NC, though not a Panthers fan, and I love the guy. (Well, love is a strong word but he's not unlikable)

 

[Steelers4Life]

I think Cam has been the guy he's been because he had to. They haven't given him great weapons to work with in the passing game, the running game has been inconsistent at best, and the offensive line has been awful. He's had to rely on his legs because the offense didn't have much else to rely on. Kudos to him for being able to make something out of nothing so often.

Russell could afford to play things safe... the safe throws, the safe runs - because he's had the support of a great running game and a great offensive line, and an offense imaginative enough to take advantage of the skills that he has. Cam has had none of those things.

If you're going to have me pick which guy to pay and they're going to be playing on the same team, the answer isn't close at all, and it's Cam.

You do realize that Wilson is a big reason why their running game is great, right? He accounted for approximately 1/3 of their rushing yards in 2014.

Seattle's running game with Lynch is elite. Wilson is a very good runner too, but defenses have to respect the running back in that offense more than anything else.

Carolina's running game is what it is only because of Cam, because they've had nothing but inconsistency, injuries, and mediocrity at RB.

BIG difference.

I think the Seahawks' offense would be even better with Cam than it is with Wilson. And I think the Panthers' offense right now is better with Cam than it would be with Wilson.

If you go back a few years and swap the two, perceptions of each of them would be drastically different in my opinion. Wilson isn't talented enough to carry a team the way Cam has been asked to. And lucky for Wilson, he hasn't had to. That's not to say Wilson isn't very good at what he does - he is.

 

[Yenrub]

I think Cam has been the guy he's been because he had to. They haven't given him great weapons to work with in the passing game, the running game has been inconsistent at best, and the offensive line has been awful. He's had to rely on his legs because the offense didn't have much else to rely on. Kudos to him for being able to make something out of nothing so often.

Russell could afford to play things safe... the safe throws, the safe runs - because he's had the support of a great running game and a great offensive line, and an offense imaginative enough to take advantage of the skills that he has. Cam has had none of those things.

If you're going to have me pick which guy to pay and they're going to be playing on the same team, the answer isn't close at all, and it's Cam.

You do realize that Wilson is a big reason why their running game is great, right? He accounted for approximately 1/3 of their rushing yards in 2014.

Good point

I think he was Seattle's second leading rusher

 

[Ghost Rider]

I think Cam has been the guy he's been because he had to. They haven't given him great weapons to work with in the passing game, the running game has been inconsistent at best, and the offensive line has been awful. He's had to rely on his legs because the offense didn't have much else to rely on. Kudos to him for being able to make something out of nothing so often.

Russell could afford to play things safe... the safe throws, the safe runs - because he's had the support of a great running game and a great offensive line, and an offense imaginative enough to take advantage of the skills that he has. Cam has had none of those things.

If you're going to have me pick which guy to pay and they're going to be playing on the same team, the answer isn't close at all, and it's Cam.

You do realize that Wilson is a big reason why their running game is great, right? He accounted for approximately 1/3 of their rushing yards in 2014.

Seattle's running game with Lynch is elite. Wilson is a very good runner too, but defenses have to respect the running back in that offense more than anything else.

Carolina's running game is what it is only because of Cam, because they've had nothing but inconsistency, injuries, and mediocrity at RB.

BIG difference.

I think the Seahawks' offense would be even better with Cam than it is with Wilson. And I think the Panthers' offense right now is better with Cam than it would be with Wilson.

If you go back a few years and swap the two, perceptions of each of them would be drastically different in my opinion. Wilson isn't talented enough to carry a team the way Cam has been asked to. And lucky for Wilson, he hasn't had to. That's not to say Wilson isn't very good at what he does - he is.

I totally disagree. Wilson is a very consistent, accurate passer; Cam is not. Cam will look great on one throw, and then completely miss a wide open receiver on the next. When he is on, he does look great, but good luck guessing when that will be. It doesn't vary from game to game; it varies from throw to throw.

 

[Tau837]

I think Cam has been the guy he's been because he had to. They haven't given him great weapons to work with in the passing game, the running game has been inconsistent at best, and the offensive line has been awful. He's had to rely on his legs because the offense didn't have much else to rely on. Kudos to him for being able to make something out of nothing so often.

Russell could afford to play things safe... the safe throws, the safe runs - because he's had the support of a great running game and a great offensive line, and an offense imaginative enough to take advantage of the skills that he has. Cam has had none of those things.

If you're going to have me pick which guy to pay and they're going to be playing on the same team, the answer isn't close at all, and it's Cam.

You do realize that Wilson is a big reason why their running game is great, right? He accounted for approximately 1/3 of their rushing yards in 2014.

Seattle's running game with Lynch is elite. Wilson is a very good runner too, but defenses have to respect the running back in that offense more than anything else.

Carolina's running game is what it is only because of Cam, because they've had nothing but inconsistency, injuries, and mediocrity at RB.

BIG difference.

I think the Seahawks' offense would be even better with Cam than it is with Wilson. And I think the Panthers' offense right now is better with Cam than it would be with Wilson.

If you go back a few years and swap the two, perceptions of each of them would be drastically different in my opinion. Wilson isn't talented enough to carry a team the way Cam has been asked to. And lucky for Wilson, he hasn't had to. That's not to say Wilson isn't very good at what he does - he is.

I totally disagree. Wilson is a very consistent, accurate passer; Cam is not. Cam will look great on one throw, and then completely miss a wide open receiver on the next. When he is on, he does look great, but good luck guessing when that will be. It doesn't vary from game to game; it varies from throw to throw.

 

[Donnybrook]

I know that Cam has a terrible O-line but I thought he also played terrible last year. I would not pay him like a franchise QB.

Dude he was hurt from the word go. All types of injuries (ankle, back, calf) then in add his high school level line and new receivers then I think his play was pretty above average. Once he got sortof healthy at the end of the year he was great. He is above and beyond a franchise qb.

You must have low standards. It is hard to overlook the franchise record of 8 straight games with an interception.

 

[FUBAR]

I know that Cam has a terrible O-line but I thought he also played terrible last year. I would not pay him like a franchise QB.

Dude he was hurt from the word go. All types of injuries (ankle, back, calf) then in add his high school level line and new receivers then I think his play was pretty above average. Once he got sortof healthy at the end of the year he was great. He is above and beyond a franchise qb.

You must have low standards. It is hard to overlook the franchise record of 8 straight games with an interception.

Mid October through November were abysmal. Hopefully he learned from that stretch.

 

[Freelove]

I think Cam has been the guy he's been because he had to. They haven't given him great weapons to work with in the passing game, the running game has been inconsistent at best, and the offensive line has been awful. He's had to rely on his legs because the offense didn't have much else to rely on. Kudos to him for being able to make something out of nothing so often.

Russell could afford to play things safe... the safe throws, the safe runs - because he's had the support of a great running game and a great offensive line, and an offense imaginative enough to take advantage of the skills that he has. Cam has had none of those things.

If you're going to have me pick which guy to pay and they're going to be playing on the same team, the answer isn't close at all, and it's Cam.

You do realize that Wilson is a big reason why their running game is great, right? He accounted for approximately 1/3 of their rushing yards in 2014.

Good pointI think he was Seattle's second leading rusher

At the same time, Wilson's biggest strength as a runner is as an opportunist, who buys time to dissect the play, and determine whether downfield passing or open field running is likely to yield a better result.

All of which is to say his strength as a runner comes largey out of the passing game. That's not a knock against him, but it IS a reason that you can't necessarily compare apples to apples with Newton, since CAR's line didn't afford Cam the same opportunities.

Russ had the dual advantage of being the D's secondary concern in the running game, while his legs had to remain a secondary concern in the passing game as well -- both of which were bound to massively ramp up his per play potential. Cam had neither advantage.

 

[The Commish]

How are we measuring "better"? Are we stuck looking at the stats of each or can we actually look at the teams and what transpired on the field of play that aren't shown on the stat line.

In no particular order, I value quality of their play (e.g., as measured by statistics/grades), winning, honors/awards, clutch play, and leadership to assess who is better. IMO this collectively favors Wilson.

PFF grades look at what transpires on the field of play that isn't necessarily shown in statistics. PFF grades for the past 3 years since Wilson entered the NFL:

2012: Wilson +41.7, Newton +19.5

2013: Wilson +25.5, Newton +10.8

2014: Wilson +7.3, Newton +13.5

The fact that Newton grades out higher than Wilson in 2014 even though Wilson had better statistics proves that these grades aren't directly correlated to statistics.

IMO Wilson's dropoff last year is largely attributable to the loss of quality targets (Harvin, Rice, Tate, Miller, etc.).

Those are all regular season grades. Here are their postseason grades: Wilson +15.0 in 8 games, Newton +1.7 in 3 games.

If you had to choose either the Panthers or the Seahawks to get to the super bowl and you were forced to bet on it, would you bet Seattle with Cam or Carolina with Wilson....each of the last two year?

I would rank the combinations as follows: Seattle with Wilson > Seattle with Newton > Carolina with Wilson > Carolina with Newton

This question you are posing is different than the one we have been discussing. Supporting cast matters, and Seattle's team around the starting QB is better than Carolina's. I don't think anyone would dispute that. That doesn't prove anything about which one of them is the better QB.

The comment you took issue with initially was that I said Cam's ceiling is higher. I made no mention of which QB was "better". I have no problem accepting that Wilson's been more successful thus far. I'd expect that given several reasons, but the primary ones being his overall experience at the QB position and the position he's been put in at Seattle. So if you want to get back to the ceiling comment we can do that, or I guess we're done as "better" is relatively tough given they play very differently, bring very different skills to their teams and the teams have been in very different places overall.

It's going to be tough to sell me on the "leadership" metric. I don't even know how one attempts to begin that discussion. I suppose I'm fine with a stat comparison of the QB, but winning doesn't seem very valid as that's on the team and the QB is only on the field during one of the three facets of the game. You'd have to break down for me what "clutch play" means....seems like a similarly arbitrary metric like "leadership" but I'm open to the explanation.

 

[TDorBust]

In the last 25 years there is basically 2 QBs that people would define as below average (Dilfer/Johnson) and 1 QB (Flacco - who played out of his mind that playoffs) who people would call average that have won a Super Bowl. You don't need an elite QB to win but you sure as heck need a very good one.

Hostetler '90? Brady '01? Eli '07? Roethlisberger '08? You could make the case that those 4 were far from special those years during the regular season, too, which bumps you to 7 out of 25. But yeah, not too much.

Hostetler - we can count him I started counting the year after actually

Brady - you are going to count him why? because he hadn't broken out yet which doesn't matter because Brady turned out to be very special in the end

Eli/Roethlisberger - I think you need to count both of these quaterbacks as under-rated as they are/were above average NFL QBs and don't you remember all the Eli love even with people calling him "elite", if anything this proves my point you need this type of QB as a floor

I will stick to my guns because I am not worried about what they were rated WHEN they first won a Super Bowl but what their career turned out like. Its the same thing with Newton and Wilson right now you can say Newton has not been consistent enough and Wilson hasn't shown a big arm but the point is they have shown to do enough to be looped in as above average and could be considered as a top 5 QB in the next 3-5 years likely. This is the type of QB you need at minimum, while I am not a Big Ben or Eli fan they have been very good QBs over their careers.

 

[Tau837]

How are we measuring "better"? Are we stuck looking at the stats of each or can we actually look at the teams and what transpired on the field of play that aren't shown on the stat line.

In no particular order, I value quality of their play (e.g., as measured by statistics/grades), winning, honors/awards, clutch play, and leadership to assess who is better. IMO this collectively favors Wilson.

PFF grades look at what transpires on the field of play that isn't necessarily shown in statistics. PFF grades for the past 3 years since Wilson entered the NFL:

2012: Wilson +41.7, Newton +19.5

2013: Wilson +25.5, Newton +10.8

2014: Wilson +7.3, Newton +13.5

The fact that Newton grades out higher than Wilson in 2014 even though Wilson had better statistics proves that these grades aren't directly correlated to statistics.

IMO Wilson's dropoff last year is largely attributable to the loss of quality targets (Harvin, Rice, Tate, Miller, etc.).

Those are all regular season grades. Here are their postseason grades: Wilson +15.0 in 8 games, Newton +1.7 in 3 games.

If you had to choose either the Panthers or the Seahawks to get to the super bowl and you were forced to bet on it, would you bet Seattle with Cam or Carolina with Wilson....each of the last two year?

I would rank the combinations as follows: Seattle with Wilson > Seattle with Newton > Carolina with Wilson > Carolina with Newton

This question you are posing is different than the one we have been discussing. Supporting cast matters, and Seattle's team around the starting QB is better than Carolina's. I don't think anyone would dispute that. That doesn't prove anything about which one of them is the better QB.

The comment you took issue with initially was that I said Cam's ceiling is higher. I made no mention of which QB was "better". I have no problem accepting that Wilson's been more successful thus far. I'd expect that given several reasons, but the primary ones being his overall experience at the QB position and the position he's been put in at Seattle. So if you want to get back to the ceiling comment we can do that, or I guess we're done as "better" is relatively tough given they play very differently, bring very different skills to their teams and the teams have been in very different places overall.

It's going to be tough to sell me on the "leadership" metric. I don't even know how one attempts to begin that discussion. I suppose I'm fine with a stat comparison of the QB, but winning doesn't seem very valid as that's on the team and the QB is only on the field during one of the three facets of the game. You'd have to break down for me what "clutch play" means....seems like a similarly arbitrary metric like "leadership" but I'm open to the explanation.

You're right, I did take issue with the ceiling comment. Again, I don't think your question above about betting on them to reach the Super Bowl if they switched teams really addresses that in any way.

I'm not attempting to say there is a defined metric for all of the criteria I mentioned. I agree there isn't really a leadership metric, but leadership is visible through how a QB carries himself on and off the field, what coaches and teammates say about the QB, and how the QB interacts with the media. QB leadership involves leading by example with work ethic, helping and motivating teammates, being team focused and not me focused, etc. IMO there is a correlation between leadership and maturity, and Wilson is uncommonly mature for his age, which helps him in this area. I think it is pretty clear Wilson is a stronger leader.

I agree winning is often overstated for QBs, but it is still part of assessing them. Wilson clearly benefited from being drafted onto a team with a good RB and defense. But consider that Seattle was 14-18 in the 2 seasons under Carroll before Wilson and they are 42-14 since Wilson arrived, and Wilson has the most wins in his first 2 and 3 seasons in NFL history. However much credit winning is worth in assessing QBs, Wilson gets full credit.

As for clutch play, there is some low hanging fruit to assess it. Wilson has 10 career 4th quarter comebacks and 15 career game winning drives in 3 seasons, compared to 9 and 8, respectively, for Newton in 4 seasons. It is presumably true that Seattle's defense has kept Seattle in games and given Wilson more opportunities than Newton may have had, but it is really impressive that Wilson has more GWDs than losses in his career.

Wilson has a better career passer rating in the postseason, in the 4th quarter, in OT, on 3rd down, when tied with < 4 minutes remaining, when tied with < 2 minutes remaining, when trailing with < 4 minutes remaining, and when trailing with < 2 minutes remaining. Newton has a better career passer rating on 4th down to avert a clean sweep by Wilson in all of these categories.

 

[The Commish]

How are we measuring "better"? Are we stuck looking at the stats of each or can we actually look at the teams and what transpired on the field of play that aren't shown on the stat line.

In no particular order, I value quality of their play (e.g., as measured by statistics/grades), winning, honors/awards, clutch play, and leadership to assess who is better. IMO this collectively favors Wilson.

PFF grades look at what transpires on the field of play that isn't necessarily shown in statistics. PFF grades for the past 3 years since Wilson entered the NFL:

2012: Wilson +41.7, Newton +19.5

2013: Wilson +25.5, Newton +10.8

2014: Wilson +7.3, Newton +13.5

The fact that Newton grades out higher than Wilson in 2014 even though Wilson had better statistics proves that these grades aren't directly correlated to statistics.

IMO Wilson's dropoff last year is largely attributable to the loss of quality targets (Harvin, Rice, Tate, Miller, etc.).

Those are all regular season grades. Here are their postseason grades: Wilson +15.0 in 8 games, Newton +1.7 in 3 games.

If you had to choose either the Panthers or the Seahawks to get to the super bowl and you were forced to bet on it, would you bet Seattle with Cam or Carolina with Wilson....each of the last two year?

I would rank the combinations as follows: Seattle with Wilson > Seattle with Newton > Carolina with Wilson > Carolina with Newton

This question you are posing is different than the one we have been discussing. Supporting cast matters, and Seattle's team around the starting QB is better than Carolina's. I don't think anyone would dispute that. That doesn't prove anything about which one of them is the better QB.

The comment you took issue with initially was that I said Cam's ceiling is higher. I made no mention of which QB was "better". I have no problem accepting that Wilson's been more successful thus far. I'd expect that given several reasons, but the primary ones being his overall experience at the QB position and the position he's been put in at Seattle. So if you want to get back to the ceiling comment we can do that, or I guess we're done as "better" is relatively tough given they play very differently, bring very different skills to their teams and the teams have been in very different places overall.

It's going to be tough to sell me on the "leadership" metric. I don't even know how one attempts to begin that discussion. I suppose I'm fine with a stat comparison of the QB, but winning doesn't seem very valid as that's on the team and the QB is only on the field during one of the three facets of the game. You'd have to break down for me what "clutch play" means....seems like a similarly arbitrary metric like "leadership" but I'm open to the explanation.

You're right, I did take issue with the ceiling comment. Again, I don't think your question above about betting on them to reach the Super Bowl if they switched teams really addresses that in any way.

I'm not attempting to say there is a defined metric for all of the criteria I mentioned. I agree there isn't really a leadership metric, but leadership is visible through how a QB carries himself on and off the field, what coaches and teammates say about the QB, and how the QB interacts with the media. QB leadership involves leading by example with work ethic, helping and motivating teammates, being team focused and not me focused, etc. IMO there is a correlation between leadership and maturity, and Wilson is uncommonly mature for his age, which helps him in this area. I think it is pretty clear Wilson is a stronger leader.

I agree winning is often overstated for QBs, but it is still part of assessing them. Wilson clearly benefited from being drafted onto a team with a good RB and defense. But consider that Seattle was 14-18 in the 2 seasons under Carroll before Wilson and they are 42-14 since Wilson arrived, and Wilson has the most wins in his first 2 and 3 seasons in NFL history. However much credit winning is worth in assessing QBs, Wilson gets full credit.

As for clutch play, there is some low hanging fruit to assess it. Wilson has 10 career 4th quarter comebacks and 15 career game winning drives in 3 seasons, compared to 9 and 8, respectively, for Newton in 4 seasons. It is presumably true that Seattle's defense has kept Seattle in games and given Wilson more opportunities than Newton may have had, but it is really impressive that Wilson has more GWDs than losses in his career.

Wilson has a better career passer rating in the postseason, in the 4th quarter, in OT, on 3rd down, when tied with < 4 minutes remaining, when tied with < 2 minutes remaining, when trailing with < 4 minutes remaining, and when trailing with < 2 minutes remaining. Newton has a better career passer rating on 4th down to avert a clean sweep by Wilson in all of these categories.

No, that was a comment regarding the "best"/"better" comments that were being made. I'm really not interested in that discussion and shouldn't have commented on that. You outline here, sorta why it's of no interest to me. It's impossible to determine because so many arbitrary lines are typically drawn. I'll use your "leadership" metric as exhibit A. Quite frankly, I couldn't care less how one deals with the media. I care far more about what teammates think about the individual and what they do for the community. Being politically correct isn't a plus or minus in my book, neither is wearing ones feelings on their sleeve. Just doesn't matter. I generally agree with the rest of the attributes that you list, but the problem is, we don't KNOW any of those things. We only know the parts we are shown, which are a microcosm of the way things are on the team.

The final thing that I take issue with is the complete focus on passing and not the overall body of work. This isn't singling you out, but it happens in every single conversation about Cam Newton. While he has been HIGHLY inaccurate, especially early in his career, it's gotten significantly better all while he's piling up beastly numbers on the ground. That's part of his game. Whether one thinks it should be or not is irrelevant. With Cam Newton it's a huge factor.

So if we're talking about the reasons I believe Cam's ceiling is higher, they'd be as follows:

1. He's entering his 5th year of real football, improving every year he's been on the team.

2. He's the healthiest he's ever been (no ankle surgeries to worry about or car crashes to heal from).

3. They are beginning to put weapons around him finally.

4. He has his contract and now all he has to do is perform.

5. The team is now finally getting to a position where they can afford to keep their own and get FAs to fill gaps (out of cap hell).

6. He's learned the leadership aspect of the game (if you are to believe the team, coaches and GM)

Things that will remain an issue:

1. Questions about offensive coaching and scheme.

2. Offensive line woes.

3. Running game health.

4. Working on mechanics and accuracy.

#4 relies significantly on #2 but he's shown that he can improve despite the problems on the o-line it's just not as quick when your o-line sucks. The kid's show flashes of what could be in countless games in his career. The potential is there. The athletic gifts and abilities are there. It's only the consistency that's lacking now.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Putting weapons around him finally? Steve Smith wasn't a weapon his first three years?

I'll believe the leadership thing when I see it. Whenever things don't go well, he looks like a kid whose puppy just died. His body language screams negativity when things aren't going his way. Not saying a QB should be skipping across the field when losing or after throwing an INT, but the way Cam acts never says leader to me.

 

[FUBAR]

Putting weapons around him finally? Steve Smith wasn't a weapon his first three years?

I'll believe the leadership thing when I see it. Whenever things don't go well, he looks like a kid whose puppy just died. His body language screams negativity when things aren't going his way. Not saying a QB should be skipping across the field when losing or after throwing an INT, but the way Cam acts never says leader to me.

I got the leader vibe during their playoff loss to the Seahawks. He might not have played all world that game but he got the team going a few times. They just lost to a better team.

 

[Tau837]

The final thing that I take issue with is the complete focus on passing and not the overall body of work. This isn't singling you out, but it happens in every single conversation about Cam Newton. While he has been HIGHLY inaccurate, especially early in his career, it's gotten significantly better all while he's piling up beastly numbers on the ground. That's part of his game. Whether one thinks it should be or not is irrelevant. With Cam Newton it's a huge factor.

Good post and discussion. With regard to this quote, I'm not sure I get your point at least as relates to this particular discussion. Rushing is a big part of Wilson's overall body of work also. Since Wilson came into the league, here are their rushing numbers:

Wilson:

Regular season (48 games): 300 carries, 1877 rushing yards (6.3 ypc), 106 first downs, 11 rushing TDs

Postseason (8 games): 43 carries, 255 rushing yards (5.9 ypc), 2 rushing TDs

Newton:

Regular season (46 games): 339 carries, 1868 rushing yards (5.5 ypc), 139 first downs, 19 rushing TDs

Postseason (3 games): 28 carries, 126 rushing yards (4.5 ypc), 0 rushing TDs

They are easily the two most effective QBs in the league over that span at running the ball. So I agree that running is an important part of Newton's body of work, but Wilson's body of work has still been better.

 

[Tau837]

Putting weapons around him finally? Steve Smith wasn't a weapon his first three years?

I'll believe the leadership thing when I see it. Whenever things don't go well, he looks like a kid whose puppy just died. His body language screams negativity when things aren't going his way. Not saying a QB should be skipping across the field when losing or after throwing an INT, but the way Cam acts never says leader to me.

I have to agree with this. Primary targets to date:

Newton:

WRs: Smith, Benjamin, LaFell

TEs: Olsen
RBs: Stewart, Deangelo, Tolbert

Wilson:

WRs: Rice, Tate, Baldwin, Kearse

TEs: Miller
RBs: Lynch, Turbin

Both sets of targets are weak, but IMO Carolina's have been better. 3 years of Smith and 4 years of Olsen is better than what Wilson has had.

 

[FUBAR]

Putting weapons around him finally? Steve Smith wasn't a weapon his first three years?

I'll believe the leadership thing when I see it. Whenever things don't go well, he looks like a kid whose puppy just died. His body language screams negativity when things aren't going his way. Not saying a QB should be skipping across the field when losing or after throwing an INT, but the way Cam acts never says leader to me.

I have to agree with this. Primary targets to date:

Newton:

WRs: Smith, Benjamin, LaFell

TEs: Olsen

RBs: Stewart, Deangelo, Tolbert

Wilson:

WRs: Rice, Tate, Baldwin, Kearse

TEs: Miller

RBs: Lynch, Turbin

Both sets of targets are weak, but IMO Carolina's have been better. 3 years of Smith and 4 years of Olsen is better than what Wilson has had.

Tate seems to be a darn good receiver.

 

[The Commish]

The final thing that I take issue with is the complete focus on passing and not the overall body of work. This isn't singling you out, but it happens in every single conversation about Cam Newton. While he has been HIGHLY inaccurate, especially early in his career, it's gotten significantly better all while he's piling up beastly numbers on the ground. That's part of his game. Whether one thinks it should be or not is irrelevant. With Cam Newton it's a huge factor.

Good post and discussion. With regard to this quote, I'm not sure I get your point at least as relates to this particular discussion. Rushing is a big part of Wilson's overall body of work also. Since Wilson came into the league, here are their rushing numbers:

Wilson:

Regular season (48 games): 300 carries, 1877 rushing yards (6.3 ypc), 106 first downs, 11 rushing TDs

Postseason (8 games): 43 carries, 255 rushing yards (5.9 ypc), 2 rushing TDs

Newton:

Regular season (46 games): 339 carries, 1868 rushing yards (5.5 ypc), 139 first downs, 19 rushing TDs

Postseason (3 games): 28 carries, 126 rushing yards (4.5 ypc), 0 rushing TDs

They are easily the two most effective QBs in the league over that span at running the ball. So I agree that running is an important part of Newton's body of work, but Wilson's body of work has still been better.

You keep going back to the "better" discussion. One I'm really not interested in for the reasons I've already listed. I've already conceded that Wilson appears to be further along than Cam as well. We can move on if we aren't going to talk about future potential (ceilings).

 

[biju]

I'm obviously very biased, but I would never trade Wilson for Cam. Rodgers? Sure. Luck? Yes. That might be about it however...

 

[Tau837]

So if we're talking about the reasons I believe Cam's ceiling is higher, they'd be as follows:

1. He's entering his 5th year of real football, improving every year he's been on the team.

You have made a comment like this a few times and it seems off base. Newton is entering his 5th year in the NFL. But he played college football. You don't count his year at Auburn as "real football"? Or his year in junior college, when he led his team to the JC national championship? Or his two years at Florida, since he didn't play? And he also played high school football. I don't see how it is true that he played less "real football" entering his 5th NFL season than plenty of other NFL QBs.

Also, has Newton actually improved every year as you claim here? Based on what? For example, how did he improve from 2013 to 2014?

Finally, how does this show Newton has a higher ceiling than Wilson? Wilson hasn't stopped improving, either.

2. He's the healthiest he's ever been (no ankle surgeries to worry about or car crashes to heal from).

OK, so both Newton and Wilson are healthy. Newton's performance could improve with better health. But how does this support the idea that Newton has a higher ceiling?

3. They are beginning to put weapons around him finally.

This has already been addressed in other posts. Newton has had Olsen and either Steve Smith or Benjamin in every season of his career to date. That is better than what Wilson has had. Now Wilson has Graham, and Newton adds Funchess. This seems like a much better improvement for Wilson than Newton. How does this support the idea that Newton has a higher ceiling?

4. He has his contract and now all he has to do is perform.

How does this support the idea that Newton has a higher ceiling?

5. The team is now finally getting to a position where they can afford to keep their own and get FAs to fill gaps (out of cap hell).

Certainly, improving the roster around Newton could help him improve his performance. But how does it support the idea that Newton has a higher ceiling?

6. He's learned the leadership aspect of the game (if you are to believe the team, coaches and GM)

But Wilson is already a strong leader and has been from the time he entered the NFL. How does this support the idea that Newton has a higher ceiling?

Basically, your list boils down to Newton is improving, healthier than he has been at times in the past, and the team is improving around him. You are saying that illustrates that Newton has a higher ceiling, but it doesn't.

When talking about ceilings, we are talking about the maximum performance these guys could achieve. A lot of factors influence that, including health, work ethic, physical skills, intelligence, decision-making, surrounding players, and offensive scheme. I'm sure there are others I haven't listed.

In order to make a claim that one guy has a higher ceiling than another, you would need to be able to make a case that one is better than the other in many of these areas. Most of these things cannot be proven, but, if these criteria favor one of these guys over the other, IMO they favor Wilson, not Newton.

 

[omally]

Putting weapons around him finally? Steve Smith wasn't a weapon his first three years?

I'll believe the leadership thing when I see it. Whenever things don't go well, he looks like a kid whose puppy just died. His body language screams negativity when things aren't going his way. Not saying a QB should be skipping across the field when losing or after throwing an INT, but the way Cam acts never says leader to me.

I have to agree with this. Primary targets to date:

Newton:

WRs: Smith, Benjamin, LaFell

TEs: Olsen
RBs: Stewart, Deangelo, Tolbert

Wilson:

WRs: Rice, Tate, Baldwin, Kearse

TEs: Miller
RBs: Lynch, Turbin

Both sets of targets are weak, but IMO Carolina's have been better. 3 years of Smith and 4 years of Olsen is better than what Wilson has had.

You forgot Percy Harvin.

 

[Tau837]

Putting weapons around him finally? Steve Smith wasn't a weapon his first three years?

I'll believe the leadership thing when I see it. Whenever things don't go well, he looks like a kid whose puppy just died. His body language screams negativity when things aren't going his way. Not saying a QB should be skipping across the field when losing or after throwing an INT, but the way Cam acts never says leader to me.

I have to agree with this. Primary targets to date:

Newton:

WRs: Smith, Benjamin, LaFell

TEs: Olsen

RBs: Stewart, Deangelo, Tolbert

Wilson:

WRs: Rice, Tate, Baldwin, Kearse

TEs: Miller

RBs: Lynch, Turbin

Both sets of targets are weak, but IMO Carolina's have been better. 3 years of Smith and 4 years of Olsen is better than what Wilson has had.

You forgot Percy Harvin.

No I didn't. Harvin played in 6 games for Seattle and only started 4. I listed their primary targets.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Harvin only played a handful of games for the Seahawks.

Edit: JWB already said it.

 

[Sabertooth]

http://footbasket.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/russell.png

 

[The Commish]

So if we're talking about the reasons I believe Cam's ceiling is higher, they'd be as follows:

1. He's entering his 5th year of real football, improving every year he's been on the team.

You have made a comment like this a few times and it seems off base. Newton is entering his 5th year in the NFL. But he played college football. You don't count his year at Auburn as "real football"? Or his year in junior college, when he led his team to the JC national championship? Or his two years at Florida, since he didn't play? And he also played high school football. I don't see how it is true that he played less "real football" entering his 5th NFL season than plenty of other NFL QBs.

Also, has Newton actually improved every year as you claim here? Based on what? For example, how did he improve from 2013 to 2014?

Finally, how does this show Newton has a higher ceiling than Wilson? Wilson hasn't stopped improving, either.

2. He's the healthiest he's ever been (no ankle surgeries to worry about or car crashes to heal from).

OK, so both Newton and Wilson are healthy. Newton's performance could improve with better health. But how does this support the idea that Newton has a higher ceiling?

3. They are beginning to put weapons around him finally.

This has already been addressed in other posts. Newton has had Olsen and either Steve Smith or Benjamin in every season of his career to date. That is better than what Wilson has had. Now Wilson has Graham, and Newton adds Funchess. This seems like a much better improvement for Wilson than Newton. How does this support the idea that Newton has a higher ceiling?

4. He has his contract and now all he has to do is perform.

How does this support the idea that Newton has a higher ceiling?

5. The team is now finally getting to a position where they can afford to keep their own and get FAs to fill gaps (out of cap hell).

Certainly, improving the roster around Newton could help him improve his performance. But how does it support the idea that Newton has a higher ceiling?

6. He's learned the leadership aspect of the game (if you are to believe the team, coaches and GM)

But Wilson is already a strong leader and has been from the time he entered the NFL. How does this support the idea that Newton has a higher ceiling?

Basically, your list boils down to Newton is improving, healthier than he has been at times in the past, and the team is improving around him. You are saying that illustrates that Newton has a higher ceiling, but it doesn't.

When talking about ceilings, we are talking about the maximum performance these guys could achieve. A lot of factors influence that, including health, work ethic, physical skills, intelligence, decision-making, surrounding players, and offensive scheme. I'm sure there are others I haven't listed.

In order to make a claim that one guy has a higher ceiling than another, you would need to be able to make a case that one is better than the other in many of these areas. Most of these things cannot be proven, but, if these criteria favor one of these guys over the other, IMO they favor Wilson, not Newton.

No, I don't count his time at Auburn or prior as "real football". It's certainly not like Wilson's experience at NCSU and then Wisconsin. It's not even close. To the point, where most analysts even acknowledge this. A prediction can't be "proven" or it's not a prediction, it's a fact. Cam's at a completely different place than Wilson. Wilson's further ahead. That fact alone allows me to think Cam's ceiling is higher. You keep telling me that Wilson is already "better" than Cam at a lot of things and I agree. He's at the level he's at right now with a ton of places he can improve.

I guess I should try this angle:

1. Who has more room for improvement in their passing?

2. Who has more room for improvement in their "leadership"?

3. Who has more room for improvement in their decision making?

4. Who has more room for improvement in their scrambling ability?

5. Who has more room for improvement in their running ability?

Then, once all that is determined and both are at the top of their game, who's the individual that you'd expect more from with all those things clicking?

 

[The Commish]

Putting weapons around him finally? Steve Smith wasn't a weapon his first three years?

I'll believe the leadership thing when I see it. Whenever things don't go well, he looks like a kid whose puppy just died. His body language screams negativity when things aren't going his way. Not saying a QB should be skipping across the field when losing or after throwing an INT, but the way Cam acts never says leader to me.

I have to agree with this. Primary targets to date:

Newton:

WRs: Smith, Benjamin, LaFell

TEs: Olsen

RBs: Stewart, Deangelo, Tolbert

Wilson:

WRs: Rice, Tate, Baldwin, Kearse

TEs: Miller

RBs: Lynch, Turbin

Both sets of targets are weak, but IMO Carolina's have been better. 3 years of Smith and 4 years of Olsen is better than what Wilson has had.

You forgot Percy Harvin.

No I didn't. Harvin played in 6 games for Seattle and only started 4. I listed their primary targets.

And sorry...this is just crazy talk. Smith is one of my favorite players ever in the NFL, but he's on the decline and certainly not better than Tate. On par? Sure, ok. They're close enough to make it a wash. Olsen's an awesome guy and better than Miller, but that's changing this year and the running games aren't even in the same stratosphere.

 

[Tau837]

So if we're talking about the reasons I believe Cam's ceiling is higher, they'd be as follows:

1. He's entering his 5th year of real football, improving every year he's been on the team.

You have made a comment like this a few times and it seems off base. Newton is entering his 5th year in the NFL. But he played college football. You don't count his year at Auburn as "real football"? Or his year in junior college, when he led his team to the JC national championship? Or his two years at Florida, since he didn't play? And he also played high school football. I don't see how it is true that he played less "real football" entering his 5th NFL season than plenty of other NFL QBs.

Also, has Newton actually improved every year as you claim here? Based on what? For example, how did he improve from 2013 to 2014?

Finally, how does this show Newton has a higher ceiling than Wilson? Wilson hasn't stopped improving, either.

2. He's the healthiest he's ever been (no ankle surgeries to worry about or car crashes to heal from).

OK, so both Newton and Wilson are healthy. Newton's performance could improve with better health. But how does this support the idea that Newton has a higher ceiling?

3. They are beginning to put weapons around him finally.

This has already been addressed in other posts. Newton has had Olsen and either Steve Smith or Benjamin in every season of his career to date. That is better than what Wilson has had. Now Wilson has Graham, and Newton adds Funchess. This seems like a much better improvement for Wilson than Newton. How does this support the idea that Newton has a higher ceiling?

4. He has his contract and now all he has to do is perform.

How does this support the idea that Newton has a higher ceiling?

5. The team is now finally getting to a position where they can afford to keep their own and get FAs to fill gaps (out of cap hell).

Certainly, improving the roster around Newton could help him improve his performance. But how does it support the idea that Newton has a higher ceiling?

6. He's learned the leadership aspect of the game (if you are to believe the team, coaches and GM)

But Wilson is already a strong leader and has been from the time he entered the NFL. How does this support the idea that Newton has a higher ceiling?

Basically, your list boils down to Newton is improving, healthier than he has been at times in the past, and the team is improving around him. You are saying that illustrates that Newton has a higher ceiling, but it doesn't.

When talking about ceilings, we are talking about the maximum performance these guys could achieve. A lot of factors influence that, including health, work ethic, physical skills, intelligence, decision-making, surrounding players, and offensive scheme. I'm sure there are others I haven't listed.

In order to make a claim that one guy has a higher ceiling than another, you would need to be able to make a case that one is better than the other in many of these areas. Most of these things cannot be proven, but, if these criteria favor one of these guys over the other, IMO they favor Wilson, not Newton.

No, I don't count his time at Auburn or prior as "real football". It's certainly not like Wilson's experience at NCSU and then Wisconsin. It's not even close. To the point, where most analysts even acknowledge this. A prediction can't be "proven" or it's not a prediction, it's a fact. Cam's at a completely different place than Wilson. Wilson's further ahead. That fact alone allows me to think Cam's ceiling is higher. You keep telling me that Wilson is already "better" than Cam at a lot of things and I agree. He's at the level he's at right now with a ton of places he can improve. I guess I should try this angle:

1. Who has more room for improvement in their passing?

2. Who has more room for improvement in their "leadership"?

3. Who has more room for improvement in their decision making?

4. Who has more room for improvement in their scrambling ability?

5. Who has more room for improvement in their running ability?

Then, once all that is determined and both are at the top of their game, who's the individual that you'd expect more from with all those things clicking?

No doubt, Newton has more room for improvement, because he generally isn't as good as Wilson. That doesn't mean he ever will be as good as Wilson, however, so it doesn't show anything about ceiling.

His ceiling is higher than his performance to date, but that is also true of Wilson. Once both of them plateau and are "at the top of their games," I expect Wilson will still be better.

Once again, you haven't really shown anything. I could make the same argument you have made about Tannehill. He lacks experience at the QB position and has a lot of room for improvement, and his team is improving his supporting cast. What does that tell you about his ceiling?

 

[Tau837]

Putting weapons around him finally? Steve Smith wasn't a weapon his first three years?

I'll believe the leadership thing when I see it. Whenever things don't go well, he looks like a kid whose puppy just died. His body language screams negativity when things aren't going his way. Not saying a QB should be skipping across the field when losing or after throwing an INT, but the way Cam acts never says leader to me.

I have to agree with this. Primary targets to date:

Newton:

WRs: Smith, Benjamin, LaFell

TEs: Olsen

RBs: Stewart, Deangelo, Tolbert

Wilson:

WRs: Rice, Tate, Baldwin, Kearse

TEs: Miller

RBs: Lynch, Turbin

Both sets of targets are weak, but IMO Carolina's have been better. 3 years of Smith and 4 years of Olsen is better than what Wilson has had.

You forgot Percy Harvin.

No I didn't. Harvin played in 6 games for Seattle and only started 4. I listed their primary targets.

And sorry...this is just crazy talk. Smith is one of my favorite players ever in the NFL, but he's on the decline and certainly not better than Tate. On par? Sure, ok. They're close enough to make it a wash. Olsen's an awesome guy and better than Miller, but that's changing this year and the running games aren't even in the same stratosphere.

Crazy talk? You just said that Tate and Smith are on par with each other (even though I think Smith > Tate for the past few years) and Olsen is better than Miller, so you essentially just agreed with the posts you quoted, i.e., that Cam has had better targets than Wilson so far.

The running game wasn't being discussed.

 

[The Commish]

Putting weapons around him finally? Steve Smith wasn't a weapon his first three years?

I'll believe the leadership thing when I see it. Whenever things don't go well, he looks like a kid whose puppy just died. His body language screams negativity when things aren't going his way. Not saying a QB should be skipping across the field when losing or after throwing an INT, but the way Cam acts never says leader to me.

I have to agree with this. Primary targets to date:

Newton:

WRs: Smith, Benjamin, LaFell

TEs: Olsen

RBs: Stewart, Deangelo, Tolbert

Wilson:

WRs: Rice, Tate, Baldwin, Kearse

TEs: Miller

RBs: Lynch, Turbin

Both sets of targets are weak, but IMO Carolina's have been better. 3 years of Smith and 4 years of Olsen is better than what Wilson has had.

You forgot Percy Harvin.

No I didn't. Harvin played in 6 games for Seattle and only started 4. I listed their primary targets.

And sorry...this is just crazy talk. Smith is one of my favorite players ever in the NFL, but he's on the decline and certainly not better than Tate. On par? Sure, ok. They're close enough to make it a wash. Olsen's an awesome guy and better than Miller, but that's changing this year and the running games aren't even in the same stratosphere.

Crazy talk? You just said that Tate and Smith are on par with each other (even though I think Smith > Tate for the past few years) and Olsen is better than Miller, so you essentially just agreed with the posts you quoted, i.e., that Cam has had better targets than Wilson so far.

The running game wasn't being discussed.

It's all part of the equation. When you add them all up I don't see a case for Cam having a better offense to work with. He certainly doesn't have the better OC and early on, the better defense....the defenses have grown very similar in the last two years, but there's no question that Seattle's secondary has been better for a while.

I guess I'm sorta taken back by this notion that Wilson is also just scratching the surface of his potential. He's been doing his thing for a while now...all the way back to college. I've not heard this from really anyone else and it's not really shown on the field that he's taking huge steps. What I see him doing now is what I saw him doing at Wisconsin. WIth that said, what do you see as his ceiling and how long before we see the major progress towards that ceiling?

 

[Tau837]

I guess I'm sorta taken back by this notion that Wilson is also just scratching the surface of his potential. He's been doing his thing for a while now...all the way back to college. I've not heard this from really anyone else and it's not really shown on the field that he's taking huge steps. What I see him doing now is what I saw him doing at Wisconsin. WIth that said, what do you see as his ceiling and how long before we see the major progress towards that ceiling?

I didn't say Wilson is just scratching the surface of his potential. I said he is still improving. Not the same thing.

Wilson is better than Newton now, and both are still improving. You seem to assume that since Newton has been worse and thus has more room to improve, he will surpass Wilson. I guess we can agree to disagree on this, since you aren't actually presenting any substantive arguments that support your position.

IMO Wilson's ceiling as a passer is Drew Brees, i.e., 5K passing yards and 40 TDs. To get there, he primarily needs two things, which are both out of his control:

1. Better targets

2. Shift in offensive philosophy/playcalling that gets him well above 500 passing attempts for a number of years in a row

He would also benefit from a better OL, but for now he can use his mobility to get by.

The team has been working on #1 for a while now, drafting 3 WRs in the past 2 drafts, trading for Harvin, and trading for Graham. None of the WRs have paid dividends yet, but at least one of them could emerge as a higher quality target than Wilson has generally had. And Graham will be the best target he has had in his career by far. So #1 will probably work out in the near future.

Hard to tell on #2. Lynch will fall off at some point. When that happens, will the team stick to the same philosophy with lesser talent? (No, I don't think Michael will be equivalent to Lynch.) I doubt it. I expect they will shift more towards an up tempo passing offense. But that is merely speculation until and unless it happens.

 

[The Commish]

I guess I'm sorta taken back by this notion that Wilson is also just scratching the surface of his potential. He's been doing his thing for a while now...all the way back to college. I've not heard this from really anyone else and it's not really shown on the field that he's taking huge steps. What I see him doing now is what I saw him doing at Wisconsin. WIth that said, what do you see as his ceiling and how long before we see the major progress towards that ceiling?

I didn't say Wilson is just scratching the surface of his potential. I said he is still improving. Not the same thing.

Wilson is better than Newton now, and both are still improving. You seem to assume that since Newton has been worse and thus has more room to improve, he will surpass Wilson. I guess we can agree to disagree on this, since you aren't actually presenting any substantive arguments that support your position.

IMO Wilson's ceiling as a passer is Drew Brees, i.e., 5K passing yards and 40 TDs. To get there, he primarily needs two things, which are both out of his control:

1. Better targets

2. Shift in offensive philosophy/playcalling that gets him well above 500 passing attempts for a number of years in a row

He would also benefit from a better OL, but for now he can use his mobility to get by.

The team has been working on #1 for a while now, drafting 3 WRs in the past 2 drafts, trading for Harvin, and trading for Graham. None of the WRs have paid dividends yet, but at least one of them could emerge as a higher quality target than Wilson has generally had. And Graham will be the best target he has had in his career by far. So #1 will probably work out in the near future.

Hard to tell on #2. Lynch will fall off at some point. When that happens, will the team stick to the same philosophy with lesser talent? (No, I don't think Michael will be equivalent to Lynch.) I doubt it. I expect they will shift more towards an up tempo passing offense. But that is merely speculation until and unless it happens.

I think we are talking past each other or something. If you believe that Wilson's ceiling is 5K passing and 40 TDs (assuming you mean overall here?) then that's around 1K yards more than Cam's rookie year and about 6-7 TDs more than Cam's rookie year. I also don't understand how an individual's ceiling can be reliant on other people. To me, in their particular systems, the places Cam can improve on are more impactful to output? Is that "ceiling"? I don't know....that's where I was going though. Cam has a lot of places that he can make significant strides forward where Wilson seems like the more polished player with not a lot of places that need work. If it's a change in play calling philosophy or personnel that's required to make that next jump for Wilson, then I think we're talking about different things. My apologies.

I can't even get to that point. I was trying to keep as many things constant as possible. Cam's shown what he can do with his natural ability with a gun slinger OC. If he hones that natural ability into his craft, I have no idea what I'd expect from him from a stats perspective. All I know is he's not going to be considered an actual pocket passer until near the end of his career (and maybe not even then, who knows) and his passing game will probably always feed off his running game.

 

[shadrap]

I had Benjamin in all of my 5 leagues last year & Cam in two, & have Sunday Ticket. Needless to say I watched Carolina a lot. Cam is not an accurate passer at all. While he brings other things to the table, accuracy is not one of them. Fantasy wise he is pretty good because of his legs.

Accuracy is horrible for this stage of his career. I watched plenty of games where he had plenty of time to throw. He is not a good passer at all. IMO

 

[Tau837]

I guess I'm sorta taken back by this notion that Wilson is also just scratching the surface of his potential. He's been doing his thing for a while now...all the way back to college. I've not heard this from really anyone else and it's not really shown on the field that he's taking huge steps. What I see him doing now is what I saw him doing at Wisconsin. WIth that said, what do you see as his ceiling and how long before we see the major progress towards that ceiling?

I didn't say Wilson is just scratching the surface of his potential. I said he is still improving. Not the same thing.

Wilson is better than Newton now, and both are still improving. You seem to assume that since Newton has been worse and thus has more room to improve, he will surpass Wilson. I guess we can agree to disagree on this, since you aren't actually presenting any substantive arguments that support your position.

IMO Wilson's ceiling as a passer is Drew Brees, i.e., 5K passing yards and 40 TDs. To get there, he primarily needs two things, which are both out of his control:

1. Better targets

2. Shift in offensive philosophy/playcalling that gets him well above 500 passing attempts for a number of years in a row

He would also benefit from a better OL, but for now he can use his mobility to get by.

The team has been working on #1 for a while now, drafting 3 WRs in the past 2 drafts, trading for Harvin, and trading for Graham. None of the WRs have paid dividends yet, but at least one of them could emerge as a higher quality target than Wilson has generally had. And Graham will be the best target he has had in his career by far. So #1 will probably work out in the near future.

Hard to tell on #2. Lynch will fall off at some point. When that happens, will the team stick to the same philosophy with lesser talent? (No, I don't think Michael will be equivalent to Lynch.) I doubt it. I expect they will shift more towards an up tempo passing offense. But that is merely speculation until and unless it happens.

I think we are talking past each other or something. If you believe that Wilson's ceiling is 5K passing and 40 TDs (assuming you mean overall here?) then that's around 1K yards more than Cam's rookie year and about 6-7 TDs more than Cam's rookie year. I also don't understand how an individual's ceiling can be reliant on other people. To me, in their particular systems, the places Cam can improve on are more impactful to output? Is that "ceiling"? I don't know....that's where I was going though. Cam has a lot of places that he can make significant strides forward where Wilson seems like the more polished player with not a lot of places that need work. If it's a change in play calling philosophy or personnel that's required to make that next jump for Wilson, then I think we're talking about different things. My apologies.

I can't even get to that point. I was trying to keep as many things constant as possible. Cam's shown what he can do with his natural ability with a gun slinger OC. If he hones that natural ability into his craft, I have no idea what I'd expect from him from a stats perspective. All I know is he's not going to be considered an actual pocket passer until near the end of his career (and maybe not even then, who knows) and his passing game will probably always feed off his running game.

Yes, I suppose we have been talking about different things. It seems strange for you to say that ceiling shouldn't be reliant on other people, when you listed your "ceiling" criteria earlier and specifically mentioned better weapons around Newton.

Regardless:

I think Wilson can and will play the QB position as well as Drew Brees. If he does so in an offense that gives him enough opportunity, that means he will put up numbers like Brees (and I meant 40 passing TDs, not overall). So I'm saying I think Wilson's ceiling is to play the QB position (as a passer) at HOF level, and I think his career is on a HOF arc.

I don't believe Newton can improve enough as a passer to reach that same level. I suppose he could make up for it with his running ability, but I think that is more likely to continue getting him hurt. So I don't see Newton playing at a HOF level or establishing a HOF career arc.

 

[Freelove]

I guess I'm sorta taken back by this notion that Wilson is also just scratching the surface of his potential. He's been doing his thing for a while now...all the way back to college. I've not heard this from really anyone else and it's not really shown on the field that he's taking huge steps. What I see him doing now is what I saw him doing at Wisconsin. WIth that said, what do you see as his ceiling and how long before we see the major progress towards that ceiling?

I didn't say Wilson is just scratching the surface of his potential. I said he is still improving. Not the same thing.

Wilson is better than Newton now, and both are still improving. You seem to assume that since Newton has been worse and thus has more room to improve, he will surpass Wilson. I guess we can agree to disagree on this, since you aren't actually presenting any substantive arguments that support your position.

IMO Wilson's ceiling as a passer is Drew Brees, i.e., 5K passing yards and 40 TDs.

You Wilson fanbois.

Watch Brees throw downfield and hit muthas in stride over and over again. Watch Wilson every time he throws more than 20 yards downfield...he's relying on the threat of the run to get a guy in single coverage where lobbing a moonball up for grabs becomes a plus proposition for the offense. Even when those WR's get open, they're still forced to wait and contest balls because Wilson has a sub-standard deep arm.

You never see him hitting streaking receivers for long scores, even though he gets more streaking receivers happening than anyone -- because of both the threat of the league's best and most dedicated rushing attack AND because of the threat of his own legs on broken passing plays.

It's painful to listen to people with no concept of how NFL offenses run spew this crap. Wilson is a game manager QB whose athleticism adds some additional tricks to his bag. That's it. As a passer, especially downfield, he's nowhere near in the same universe as Drew Brees. Wilson loses his needle-threading ability after about 20 yards. To get the ball deeper than that, he has to loft the ball higher than any other QB in the league. That's an arm-strength issue, and it's why big plays simply aren't a meaningful part of the Seahawk offensive philosophy. Deep catches? Sure, because D's have to overcommit to stop the run. But deep catch and runs? LOL. The Hawks have done a brilliant job of tailoring both the offense and the defense to their players' strengths and weaknesses, but it's completely blinded the people who can't understand that.

He IS an excellent game manager, and his versatility and mind for the game make him richly deserving of a top-flight contract, because there's more than one way to be a great QB in the NFL. Although it's obvious when you dissect his strengths and weaknesses that he needs to be the guy pushing the buttons on a ball-control offense and not the trigger man for a high-performance machine.

But Wilson couldn't put up 5000/40 against an empty defensive backfield.

 

[FUBAR]

I think Wilson can and will play the QB position as well as Drew Brees.

I'll actually agree with this. But they are not the same QB, nor will they be. Troy Aikman arguably played the position as well as Drew Brees too. Wilson is much more in line with Aikman, albeit much more mobile. He's a smart QB and will win games, but he isn't likely to put up Brees type passing stats even with Graham. FWIW, Cam won't either, but Cam exceeds Russell on the ground, by a lot.

The team has been working on #1 for a while now, drafting 3 WRs in the past 2 drafts, trading for Harvin, and trading for Graham. None of the WRs have paid dividends yet, but at least one of them could emerge as a higher quality target than Wilson has generally had. And Graham will be the best target he has had in his career by far. So #1 will probably work out in the near future.

Trading for Graham is significant. Using a 3rd this year and 2nd and 4th last year, IMO is far less so. 68 receivers were drafted in the past 2 years, just over 2 per team. Drafting slightly more than that doesn't seem huge.

RW should produce better stats going forward. the addition of Graham and pending presumed downgrading of their defense will factor into that along with Lynch getting older. But if you truly expect him to pass like Brees, you'll be disappointed.

 

[Noah Davis]

Shouldn't be a question that Cam's ceiling is higher.

Based on what? I certainly don't think that is a given.

This isn't close.

Wilson is better at throwing the ball (Cam is far too inaccurate at times), running the ball (Wilson knows how to protect himself far better than Cam), and being a leader.

Remember how hurt and broken down Cam looked last season? That is what happens when you throw your body around with reckless abandon. Wilson never does that.

You do know that Cam was coming off of ankle surgery to start the season right? He wasn't ok from that surgery until well into the season. He hurt his ribs, but a lot of QBs hurt their ribs. He also had a car accident which has nothing to do with being reckless on the field.

I understand all of that, but a QB cannot take the many hits that Cam does and have a long career, and since this thread is about who you would give money to, for the future, the answer, to me, is clearly Wilson, since he is younger, better, and more likely to have a long career.

I don't know that I agree with your argument Big Ben has taken shots for a long time and is still playing at a high level....Cam being 6'5 & 245lbs makes a very large difference in how he "can" play as opposed to Wilson being 5'11 & 206lbs. Wilson plays smart and Cam plays to his athletic strengths as he is larger than 90% the back 7.

 

[FUBAR]

Shouldn't be a question that Cam's ceiling is higher.

Based on what? I certainly don't think that is a given.

This isn't close.

Wilson is better at throwing the ball (Cam is far too inaccurate at times), running the ball (Wilson knows how to protect himself far better than Cam), and being a leader.

Remember how hurt and broken down Cam looked last season? That is what happens when you throw your body around with reckless abandon. Wilson never does that.

You do know that Cam was coming off of ankle surgery to start the season right? He wasn't ok from that surgery until well into the season. He hurt his ribs, but a lot of QBs hurt their ribs. He also had a car accident which has nothing to do with being reckless on the field.

I understand all of that, but a QB cannot take the many hits that Cam does and have a long career, and since this thread is about who you would give money to, for the future, the answer, to me, is clearly Wilson, since he is younger, better, and more likely to have a long career.

I don't know that I agree with your argument Big Ben has taken shots for a long time and is still playing at a high level....Cam being 6'5 & 245lbs makes a very large difference in how he "can" play as opposed to Wilson being 5'11 & 206lbs. Wilson plays smart and Cam plays to his athletic strengths as he is larger than 90% the back 7.

FWIW, Wilson was sacked more often and ran more often than Cam did last year.

 

[The Commish]

I guess I'm sorta taken back by this notion that Wilson is also just scratching the surface of his potential. He's been doing his thing for a while now...all the way back to college. I've not heard this from really anyone else and it's not really shown on the field that he's taking huge steps. What I see him doing now is what I saw him doing at Wisconsin. WIth that said, what do you see as his ceiling and how long before we see the major progress towards that ceiling?

I didn't say Wilson is just scratching the surface of his potential. I said he is still improving. Not the same thing.

Wilson is better than Newton now, and both are still improving. You seem to assume that since Newton has been worse and thus has more room to improve, he will surpass Wilson. I guess we can agree to disagree on this, since you aren't actually presenting any substantive arguments that support your position.

IMO Wilson's ceiling as a passer is Drew Brees, i.e., 5K passing yards and 40 TDs. To get there, he primarily needs two things, which are both out of his control:

1. Better targets

2. Shift in offensive philosophy/playcalling that gets him well above 500 passing attempts for a number of years in a row

He would also benefit from a better OL, but for now he can use his mobility to get by.

The team has been working on #1 for a while now, drafting 3 WRs in the past 2 drafts, trading for Harvin, and trading for Graham. None of the WRs have paid dividends yet, but at least one of them could emerge as a higher quality target than Wilson has generally had. And Graham will be the best target he has had in his career by far. So #1 will probably work out in the near future.

Hard to tell on #2. Lynch will fall off at some point. When that happens, will the team stick to the same philosophy with lesser talent? (No, I don't think Michael will be equivalent to Lynch.) I doubt it. I expect they will shift more towards an up tempo passing offense. But that is merely speculation until and unless it happens.

I think we are talking past each other or something. If you believe that Wilson's ceiling is 5K passing and 40 TDs (assuming you mean overall here?) then that's around 1K yards more than Cam's rookie year and about 6-7 TDs more than Cam's rookie year. I also don't understand how an individual's ceiling can be reliant on other people. To me, in their particular systems, the places Cam can improve on are more impactful to output? Is that "ceiling"? I don't know....that's where I was going though. Cam has a lot of places that he can make significant strides forward where Wilson seems like the more polished player with not a lot of places that need work. If it's a change in play calling philosophy or personnel that's required to make that next jump for Wilson, then I think we're talking about different things. My apologies.

I can't even get to that point. I was trying to keep as many things constant as possible. Cam's shown what he can do with his natural ability with a gun slinger OC. If he hones that natural ability into his craft, I have no idea what I'd expect from him from a stats perspective. All I know is he's not going to be considered an actual pocket passer until near the end of his career (and maybe not even then, who knows) and his passing game will probably always feed off his running game.

Yes, I suppose we have been talking about different things. It seems strange for you to say that ceiling shouldn't be reliant on other people, when you listed your "ceiling" criteria earlier and specifically mentioned better weapons around Newton.

Regardless:

I think Wilson can and will play the QB position as well as Drew Brees. If he does so in an offense that gives him enough opportunity, that means he will put up numbers like Brees (and I meant 40 passing TDs, not overall). So I'm saying I think Wilson's ceiling is to play the QB position (as a passer) at HOF level, and I think his career is on a HOF arc.

I don't believe Newton can improve enough as a passer to reach that same level. I suppose he could make up for it with his running ability, but I think that is more likely to continue getting him hurt. So I don't see Newton playing at a HOF level or establishing a HOF career arc.

What reasons do you believe he can't get that extra 1000 yards a year as a passer? He's already established that he can get 4000+. He did that as a rookie while wildly inaccurate. His passing TDs will never be at 40. That's just not his game nor is that the offensive plan the Panthers employ. Cam got hurt fleeing the pocket, by a shot to the ribs from the blind side. And that probably wouldn't have been an issue had he been on two good ankles. Running hasn't been a huge contributor to his injuries. Car crashes? That's a different story.

As to Wilson, when do you believe that he'll begin that ascension? Is it going to take getting rid of the running game? I ask this because you're comparing him to Brees who's in an offense with a completely different mindset. That offense generally requires that sort production from a QB. Seattle's offense does not, so what stems that change in mindset by the OC? Loss of Lynch?

 

[biju]

I guess I'm sorta taken back by this notion that Wilson is also just scratching the surface of his potential. He's been doing his thing for a while now...all the way back to college. I've not heard this from really anyone else and it's not really shown on the field that he's taking huge steps. What I see him doing now is what I saw him doing at Wisconsin. WIth that said, what do you see as his ceiling and how long before we see the major progress towards that ceiling?

I didn't say Wilson is just scratching the surface of his potential. I said he is still improving. Not the same thing.

Wilson is better than Newton now, and both are still improving. You seem to assume that since Newton has been worse and thus has more room to improve, he will surpass Wilson. I guess we can agree to disagree on this, since you aren't actually presenting any substantive arguments that support your position.

IMO Wilson's ceiling as a passer is Drew Brees, i.e., 5K passing yards and 40 TDs.

You Wilson fanbois.

Watch Brees throw downfield and hit muthas in stride over and over again. Watch Wilson every time he throws more than 20 yards downfield...he's relying on the threat of the run to get a guy in single coverage where lobbing a moonball up for grabs becomes a plus proposition for the offense. Even when those WR's get open, they're still forced to wait and contest balls because Wilson has a sub-standard deep arm.

You never see him hitting streaking receivers for long scores, even though he gets more streaking receivers happening than anyone -- because of both the threat of the league's best and most dedicated rushing attack AND because of the threat of his own legs on broken passing plays.

It's painful to listen to people with no concept of how NFL offenses run spew this crap. Wilson is a game manager QB whose athleticism adds some additional tricks to his bag. That's it. As a passer, especially downfield, he's nowhere near in the same universe as Drew Brees. Wilson loses his needle-threading ability after about 20 yards. To get the ball deeper than that, he has to loft the ball higher than any other QB in the league. That's an arm-strength issue, and it's why big plays simply aren't a meaningful part of the Seahawk offensive philosophy. Deep catches? Sure, because D's have to overcommit to stop the run. But deep catch and runs? LOL. The Hawks have done a brilliant job of tailoring both the offense and the defense to their players' strengths and weaknesses, but it's completely blinded the people who can't understand that.

He IS an excellent game manager, and his versatility and mind for the game make him richly deserving of a top-flight contract, because there's more than one way to be a great QB in the NFL. Although it's obvious when you dissect his strengths and weaknesses that he needs to be the guy pushing the buttons on a ball-control offense and not the trigger man for a high-performance machine.

But Wilson couldn't put up 5000/40 against an empty defensive backfield.

You have zero idea what you're talking about.

Granted, there will be some differences in how each site grades deep passes, but here's PFF's version for 2014:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2015/05/29/qbs-in-focus-deep-passing-2/

In it, Wilson shows as being above average in the 21-30 range (#10), the 31-40 range (#6), and the 40+ range (albeit just slightly at #15).

Here's more from the 2013 season (Deadspin, but using PFF data):

http://regressing.deadspin.com/charts-who-are-the-best-deep-passers-in-the-nfl-1469917039

Let's also not forget that's exactly how he finished the NFCCG in overtime too, hitting Kearse in stride for a 35 yard TD.

Do you have any metrics to back up your claims of him having a weak arm? Or are you about to explain how a weak arm can still be accurate and effective on 20+ yard passes?