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Can the 49ers beat the Packers in the playoffs? (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter ponchsox
- Start date
Breesisdaman
Footballguy
A lot of football left to play. Neither team could end up in the Championship game. That being said, if this particular matchup were to happen my money is on the Packers to repeat and go on for a second Super bowl.
cr8f
Footballguy
Clifton should be back for such a game, but I think the Saints would be playing the Niners first, would SF win that game?
snogger
Footballguy
Packers should beat the 49ers wherever they play but...Comparing the Vikings Defense to The 49ers is like comparing Ponder to Rodgers.
chinawildman
Footballguy
If the Packers were to lose one (not to an NFC North opponent) and the niners win out, who would hold the tie breaker for #1 seed? I believe the first tie breaker is record vs. the division, is the second tie breaker PF vs. PA or strength of schedule?
I think this is it...
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.
Reepicheep
Footballguy
Wildcard tiebreaker rules are used to determine playoff seeding among division winners:1. Head-to-head, if applicable.2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.4. Strength of victory.5. Strength of schedule.6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.8. Best net points in conference games.9. Best net points in all games.10. Best net touchdowns in all games.11. Coin toss.So, if Packers lose to the Raiders or Chiefs, Packers get the 1 seed. (#2)If the Packers lose to the Bears it goes to strength of victory (#4) and presumably the Packers get the 1 seed.The Giants, Bucs, and Lions is tricky. I don't know how the "common games" thing works when teams played different teams twice. The Packers and 49ers have four common opponents: Bucs, Rams, Giants, Lions. But the Packers play the Lions twice and the 49ers play the Rams twice. See if I can figure out how that works.Edit: It says you take the winning percentage (techincally the win-loss-tie percentage) against common opponents and you use all the games played. So if the Packers lost to the Giants, Bucs, or Lions, the 49ers would get the 1 seed.(All of this assuming only one loss by each team like you said)
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Sweet Love
IBL Representative
I am about equally as concerned/curious at whether Smith can win it from behind as to whether the Packers can run the ball if they need to. Maybe they can and they are just "doing what is best", but they have shown nothing in the running game and I find it interesting that Smith's lack of passing chops is such an issue, yet GB's lack of a 100 yard rusher into a 9-0 season is just whisked over...in fact, I kind of find it bizarre that a cold weather team (or any team for that matter) is 9 games into a season at 9-0 and does not have a 100 yard rusher.
saintsfan
Footballguy
The fact remains that the 49ers are going to have the worst QB in the playoffs. I know they do other things well, but the playoffs is a different beast. Alex Smith is going to have to do something in the playoffs. They aren't winning with Gore and defense. This isn't 2000 and they aren't the Ravens.
What's going to happen when a team gets up by 10 against them??
What's going to happen when a team gets up by 10 against them??
saintsfan
Footballguy
The Saints defense isn't very good, so you never know. However, if it comes down to a game where Drew Brees or Alex Smith has to make a play, I'm pretty positive Drew would make the play. Alex Smith, probably not.
sho nuff
Footballguy
GB has done it in at least one game late (1st Minny game icing it with Starks on the ground).As for not having a 100 yard rusher.I don't think they care to...they like having the stable of backs (McCarthy had a quote about not wanting a 1700 yard rusher...not sure why he used that number).As for cold weather...it does not start til the next month or so anyway and GB had been on the road 5 of the first 9 games.
No. If they play, Green Bay will take the lead like they've done in every game and there is no way Alex Smith will be able to put up enough offense to keep up with Green Bay. In 5 out of 9 games this year Smith has thrown for under 200 yards, that won't get it done against GB. Sure SF has a good D, but when Rodgers can consistently throw the ball where only his guys have a play at it defense doesn't matter as much.
My guess is 17 week season * 100 yards/week = 1700, that doesn't take the bye week into consideration though...
footballnerd
Footballguy
What makes people think GB will jump to a huge lead like they have been? How many good defenses has GB face this year? Maybe CHI MIGHT count as one .....
Statcruncher
Footballguy
Kinda hard to tell who has a good defense when Rodgers' worst game this year according to passer rating is 28/38 (73.7%) for 297 yards, 3 TD's, and 1 INT for a 111.4 passer rating. It kills me to say this, but the way he's playing he would probably make the '85 Bears defense look bad.
chinawildman
Footballguy
Exactly... The niners defense have already been battletested against the Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, and Lions. Packers have yet to go against a top 10 defense. Even though they blew out the Vikings, they only scored 10 offensive pts against them in the 1st half playing at home, and this is with plenty of opportunities because the vikings didn't mount any drives.I think it'd be very interesting to watch the Packers play the Giants and Lions because I think both of their defenses match up well against the packers, as do the 49ers defense.
sho nuff
Footballguy
His response was about the time sharing with the backs. He also stated he wanted to get 3rd RB Saine some more work.Thing is...Starks has a 4.6 yard per carry average...not bad at all.
sho nuff
Footballguy
While you mentioned 3 that make them battle tested...Romo threw for 345 and 2TDsVick threw for 416 and 2TDsManning threw for 311 and 2TDsBut I do agree the Giants and Lions games will be interesting to see against them.I have not watched enough of SF defensively to know this...but how are they with pressure from their front 4 without bringing a blitz?
Reepicheep
Footballguy
Look, I'm with the "Any given Sunday" crowd here, of course it's possible that the Niners win a hypothetical playoff matchup. They are playing great defense and taking care of the ball, that's winning football.But it makes no sense to act like the GB offense is some unproven johnny-come-lately that has just enjoyed a hot streak against a run of bad defenses. Did you catch the playoffs last year? Or the 2009 season maybe? 2008? The core of this team has been together, putting points on the board for years now.
RUSF18
Footballguy
SF being #1 in red zone defense is the key.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Sure...Packers aren't too shabby in red zone defense or offense though.
butcher boy
Footballguy
Elite QBs seem to be the key to Superbowl success. Recent exception is Trent Dilfer, but his team made up for it with an unreal defense that I don't thing the 49ers match.
chinawildman
Footballguy
Wasn't really the intent of my post. Mainly targeted for the people who just naturally assume the niners will be "down" while GB rains down the points. The Packers have the most potent offense in the NFL right now, bar none, and right now they exude an aura of invincibility because no one has really slowed them down. Alot of people are riding that wave, but if they have a down game similar to the pats or saints and lose, alot of opinions will change when IMO, nothing really has changed.Matchups dictate the game, not scores from games against other teams or stats. Alex Smith is nowhere near the QB Brady is, yet how did the niners (minus Frank Gore) hang 27 points on a Giants team that held the previously unstoppable looking Patriots offense to 20?
They have the best front 7 in all of football.
Reepicheep
Footballguy
Agree with all this.
chinawildman
Footballguy
That's more or less my point. The niners won 2 out of those 3 games (and probably should've won the cowboys game) while the opposing QB was able to put up good stats. The 49ers offense isn't fancy, but they're 7th in the NFL in scoring averaging about 26pts/game. Rodgers will get his, but will that be enough?
I don't think either the Giants or Lions have the talent in the secondary to stop the Packers consistently. There elite pass rush will get to Rodgers a few times for sure, but the Packers will spread them out and get the ball out quick and ultimately pick them apart more times than not. You will see a lot of slants to Jennings & Nelson and had better hope they don't find a seam or they will be gone. It is interesting that the cold weather in GB would be better suited for a team like SF that runs and plays good defense. Getting the #2 seed would not phase the Packers at all after their run through the playoffs on the road last year.
Uncle Humuna
Footballguy
Gonna guess you haven't watched many of the Niner games this year . . .
Uncle Humuna
Footballguy
Seems like the question everyone is asking is can the Niners score enough points to keep up with GB.
Obviously, no one in the league has the fire power of GB.
The real question is, can the Niner's D keep the game close enough to give them a chance to win.
That's been their formula all year long.
eta -> Also wanted to add that not nearly enough has been mentioned about their special teams. Akers, Andy Lee, Ginn Jr. and the whole special teams unit has been stellar, and if not directly responsible, has at least had a very large hand in at least a few of their wins.
Also, would just like to take moment to do a freaking giddy-as-a-school-girl-happy-dance over the fact that this conversation is even happening. It's been a long time since there's been a discussion about the Niner's chances in the playoffs, let alone how they'll stack up against the consensus top team in the league.
Obviously, no one in the league has the fire power of GB.
The real question is, can the Niner's D keep the game close enough to give them a chance to win.
That's been their formula all year long.
eta -> Also wanted to add that not nearly enough has been mentioned about their special teams. Akers, Andy Lee, Ginn Jr. and the whole special teams unit has been stellar, and if not directly responsible, has at least had a very large hand in at least a few of their wins.
Also, would just like to take moment to do a freaking giddy-as-a-school-girl-happy-dance over the fact that this conversation is even happening. It's been a long time since there's been a discussion about the Niner's chances in the playoffs, let alone how they'll stack up against the consensus top team in the league.
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Uncle Humuna
Footballguy
footballnerd
Footballguy
Not saying this guarantees Alex to make a come back in the playoffs but......Sun 10/2
SF 3, PHI 23
Alex Smith 30 yd TD to Josh Morgan
SF 10, PHI 23
Alex Smith 9 yard TD to Vernon Davis
SF 17, PHI 23
Frank Gore TD
Final SF 24, DET 23
Sun 10/16
SF 15, DET 19
4th and 6
Alex Smith 6 yd TD to Delanie Walker
SF 22, DET 19
Akers FG
Final SF 25, DET 19
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CalBear
Footballguy
Other exceptions: Tom Brady #1 and #2 and Eli Manning. (in fact, Brady wasn't in the top 5 in passing yards, passing TDs, passer rating, or passing yards/attempt in any of the Super Bowl seasons). So, actually, 4-5 of the last 10 Super Bowls were won without an elite QB.
I think it comes down to SF defense. Can they dial up enoug pressure to rattle Rodergs, and slow him down. GB defense can be scored on, and you could envision a scenario of a close game where Rodgers never really gets on track. Hasn't been done yet this year, but we may see it before the playoffs (maybe chicago?) Could it happen? Absolutely. But I don't think it is likely.
footballnerd
Footballguy
I agree. By no means was I saying GB couldn't perform against a good defense, and they very well might put up points against SF, but I wouldn't count SF out by assuming they would be down by a lot early as some have mentioned.
Topes
Footballguy
footballnerd
Footballguy
ya you're right, because DAL, DET, NYG, and NO (last year) were totally anemic offenses that we faced, don't stand a chance.....
medstudent
Footballguy
I wouldn't bet against the Packers but the question was "can" the 49ers beat the Packers and the answer is definitely yes. The Packers are not going to get beat by a team like the Saints that try and outscore them by putting up a ton of points. They will get beat by a team that slows the Packers offense down. In the NFC, the 49ers and Bears have the best chance of doing that IMO.
CalBear
Footballguy
A more interesting question would be, "How many points would you need to get to take the 49ers over the Packers?"
Uncle Humuna
Footballguy
money.never.sleeps
Footballguy
49ers secondary isnt that good. 49ers offense isnt that good. Good luck to whoever thinks the 49ers cant stop Arod and that passing attack.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
If you voted no, you don't know anything about football. One of the things that makes the NFL great is that there are no sure things. Footballs can take some funny bounces.
phillybirds
Footballguy
Sure they have a chance.
Defense and a running game and a ball control QB.
Defense and a running game and a ball control QB.
Short Corner
Footballguy
Things have to go right for them to win. They have a bend but don't break defense that keeps teams out of the endzone. They have a great kicking game. Great return game. Offense is gimmicky enough to keep your front 7 off balance. Given the preseason outlook, I love their chances...but I'm still taking the points.
Dr. Awesome
Footballguy
San Francisco's offense is 7th in the league in points per game. They give up the fewest points per game. It is true they near the bottom in passing yards per game (only 6 teams are worse). But let's look closer at that statistic. San Francisco's rush defense is monstrous. I think most people realize this. They have given up ZERO rushing touchdowns. Only the Ravens allow a lower ypc. So what do teams do? They pass.Only the Bears surrender more pass attempts per game (they also look better than I imagined they would). That's right - teams attempt more passes against the Niners than any other team outside Chicago. Despite this stat, only 12 teams allow a higher completion percent. They're middle of the road in touchdowns allowed (16). Only 11 teams allow a lower ypa. Lastly, only 8 teams give up a lower qb rating to opposing teams.In short - SF's passing defense is pretty good. SF's rushing defense is amazing. So teams pass as it's the easier option (not because it's an easy option).'money.never.sleeps said:
