Don Quixote
Footballguy
RT @BeanieWells26 Just been informed that I'll be released today.
Hmmmmm. Will he be brought in to compete somewhere, or sign as a backup.Are the Cardinals content with who they have on the roster or could we see a Michael or Bell land there?RT @BeanieWells26 Just been informed that I'll be released today.
St Louis as an inexpensive complementary power back to Pead and Richardson would make sense too.Value can only go up to move out of Arizona. I could see Miami or NYJ, off the top of my head.
hmmmmIf he comes really cheap, keep an eye on Pittsburgh.
If he's willing to sign cheaply in exchange for a legit shot to be the bell-cow, he could have some value there. If he gets hurt again, they should have Redman and Dwyer back behind him, so they'd really be no worse off than they were this year. Draft a back like LeVeon Bell or Joe Randle in the 4th round and suddenly, your backfield has some options without spending a lot of FA money or a premium draft pick.hmmmmIf he comes really cheap, keep an eye on Pittsburgh.
Couple things:1) Give that post another passover as an editorBeen meaning to write something about players like Wells for awhile.
Why Beanie Wells can't stay healthy.
What does it mean to have a "poor score on the rushing or receiving metric"?Been meaning to write something about players like Wells for awhile.
Why Beanie Wells can't stay healthy.
It's a way to try and measure a players ability to use his physical talent. My own thing. But it's fairly common-sensical and something almost anyone could recreate an approximation of in a few hours.What does it mean to have a "poor score on the rushing or receiving metric"?
Eesh, I have to tell you, you've compiled a list of a hodgepodge of random guys with a full variety of reasons they never excelled. There's no commonality there in most cases and nothing that proves any point.Most were simply low round picks who never had the talent to be stars and were never expected to amount to much. The odds are long for any RB drafted below the 4th round surviving for long, we all know this.Been meaning to write something about players like Wells for awhile.
Why Beanie Wells can't stay healthy.
I sort agree with you about 'bad football players' -- that's what the 'poor rushing or receiving scores' indicate. The argument is that tall RBs with the same poorish level of skill get hurt more than the short ones. But you're also right that I didn't post anything very rigorous and no one should take my word for it. So I'll try to take some time and put something quantitative together. Or at the very least make sure I indicate which players fall into this category going forward (L Bell this year, for example) so we can compare going forward.But in the meantime I'm sticking stick to my guns here: poor vision and an inability to make yourself small is a fatal flaw in a RB and those players get hurt more often than similar players who are short.I really don't see anything about that article that makes any cogent supportable point. You found a bunch of RBs above a certain height and... and then you came to some conclusion, and honestly I don't get it.
Hey Rob, sorry if I came off slamming the post too hard. We know each other and are football pals and I know that you know your stuff. I just didn't see the linkage here, other than 1) here are some tall RBs who have been hurt, ergo 2) 'poor vision' tall RBs get hurt. So I was left scratching my head a little.Yeah, if you want this to mean something to folks, you need to show a cause-and-effect that you haven't shown -- statistical data showing greater injury to big backs, and somehow also figure out a way to demostrate why in your opinion these particular guys are singled out for poor vision, which in the post just seems to be taken for granted.Bettis, Dickerson, etc. were tall backs who had great careers. How do we decide vision is good or bad other than to assume it is good or bad depending on achieved level of success? I don't know the answer.Anyway, best of luck as you go forward with this. I hope I didn't ruffle feathers too much.I sort agree with you about 'bad football players' -- that's what the 'poor rushing or receiving scores' indicate. The argument is that tall RBs with the same poorish level of skill get hurt more than the short ones. But you're also right that I didn't post anything very rigorous and no one should take my word for it. So I'll try to take some time and put something quantitative together. Or at the very least make sure I indicate which players fall into this category going forward (L Bell this year, for example) so we can compare going forward.But in the meantime I'm sticking stick to my guns here: poor vision and an inability to make yourself small is a fatal flaw in a RB and those players get hurt more often than similar players who are short.I really don't see anything about that article that makes any cogent supportable point. You found a bunch of RBs above a certain height and... and then you came to some conclusion, and honestly I don't get it.
There is no 'sell' for anything of value at this point I'd assume. If you own him already, may as well sit on him and see what team and situation he ends up with. Maybe then sell him, but you're getting WW fodder/bottom of roster stuff if trying to sell him right now so there's really no reason to bother.Sell. Sell. Sell on the hype he goes somewhere else and does better. Wells is not good.
Agree, although I think leaving zona in itself is a value boost to him. He has been productive before. In the right situation, I think he could be very effective this year, say, with the jets or bengals or some team like that.There is no 'sell' for anything of value at this point I'd assume. If you own him already, may as well sit on him and see what team and situation he ends up with. Maybe then sell him, but you're getting WW fodder/bottom of roster stuff if trying to sell him right now so there's really no reason to bother.Sell. Sell. Sell on the hype he goes somewhere else and does better. Wells is not good.
How do you quantify poor vision?Been meaning to write something about players like Wells for awhile.
Why Beanie Wells can't stay healthy.
Exactly why id sell now or when he signs elsewhere. Someone will believe. Start throwing out offers now while there might be belief he becomes a starter.Agree, although I think leaving zona in itself is a value boost to him. He has been productive before. In the right situation, I think he could be very effective this year, say, with the jets or bengals or some team like that.There is no 'sell' for anything of value at this point I'd assume. If you own him already, may as well sit on him and see what team and situation he ends up with. Maybe then sell him, but you're getting WW fodder/bottom of roster stuff if trying to sell him right now so there's really no reason to bother.Sell. Sell. Sell on the hype he goes somewhere else and does better. Wells is not good.
No worries Bruce. I know you're not just slamming and I think you're right overall. I was relying too much on the names on the list to be convincing and didn't do my homework.I do think you may have missed the bit about 'vision' being a metric I created. I'm not going to unravel it here, but it's an objective attempt to use a college back's NCAA performance ability with the ball in his hands to predict his ability in the NFL -- independent of his physical tools.So these guys were both 'Tall' and had either a poor performance metric rushing or receiving.Bettis, Dickerson, etc. were tall backs who had great careers. How do we decide vision is good or bad other than to assume it is good or bad depending on achieved level of success? I don't know the answer.
even still, I can't see getting much for himSell. Sell. Sell on the hype he goes somewhere else and does better. Wells is not good.
Agreed. I highly doubt the team will rely on Williams after he has played a combined total of 5 games through his first two years, and never carried the ball more than 14 times in a game.ARI has gotta bring in a couple of guys...one vet, one rookie at least.
was thinking the same thing.Can't believe he's still just 24.
Wouldn't Adrian Peterson , Arian Foster and Steven Jackson fit the basic criteria also?I sort agree with you about 'bad football players' -- that's what the 'poor rushing or receiving scores' indicate. The argument is that tall RBs with the same poorish level of skill get hurt more than the short ones. But you're also right that I didn't post anything very rigorous and no one should take my word for it. So I'll try to take some time and put something quantitative together. Or at the very least make sure I indicate which players fall into this category going forward (L Bell this year, for example) so we can compare going forward.But in the meantime I'm sticking stick to my guns here: poor vision and an inability to make yourself small is a fatal flaw in a RB and those players get hurt more often than similar players who are short.I really don't see anything about that article that makes any cogent supportable point. You found a bunch of RBs above a certain height and... and then you came to some conclusion, and honestly I don't get it.
What does it say about him that the Cardinals aren't even willing to pay him $1.2M this season?I never understood all the Beanie hate. I think he is a very talented runner who just can't stay on the field. I think a change in scenery will do him some good. Hopefully he lands in a good spot and he can have another 2011 type season. I know it's a big if, but like mentioned earlier he's only 24. Someone is going to give the guy a shot.
Still over-rated.I've always liked his skillset.
I am buying for all the haters for the cheap price he should come at with the word BUST out there now. I just keep coming back to Garrison Hearst and Thomas Jones who struggled in Arizona and than got out and took off with this one.I never understood all the Beanie hate. I think he is a very talented runner who just can't stay on the field. I think a change in scenery will do him some good. Hopefully he lands in a good spot and he can have another 2011 type season. I know it's a big if, but like mentioned earlier he's only 24. Someone is going to give the guy a shot.
Knock the guy for the injuries, sure, but it's silly to think he couldn't be more productive behind an offensive line that isn't in Arizona.The list of RBs who wash out of their first franchise (and are subsequently given up on by fantasy players) that go on to produce solid numbers elsewhere is starting to get fairly long.I am buying for all the haters for the cheap price he should come at with the word BUST out there now. I just keep coming back to Garrison Hearst and Thomas Jones who struggled in Arizona and than got out and took off with this one.I never understood all the Beanie hate. I think he is a very talented runner who just can't stay on the field. I think a change in scenery will do him some good. Hopefully he lands in a good spot and he can have another 2011 type season. I know it's a big if, but like mentioned earlier he's only 24. Someone is going to give the guy a shot.
That's a great point and you're probably right. But for some reason he's one of those players I've always enjoyed watching play due to his aggressiveness. Yes I'm a dynasty owner and in non-ppr redrafts this year I probably will be an owner as well, so my vision may be clouded. If nothing else, I personally think he has a great speed/size combo and he's worth a shot for a team looking for a first 2 down back.What does it say about him that the Cardinals aren't even willing to pay him $1.2M this season?I never understood all the Beanie hate. I think he is a very talented runner who just can't stay on the field. I think a change in scenery will do him some good. Hopefully he lands in a good spot and he can have another 2011 type season. I know it's a big if, but like mentioned earlier he's only 24. Someone is going to give the guy a shot.
Both those guys have good performance measures.I've been tinkering with this quite a bit last night and this morning and am having a miserable time figuring out how you'd even set up an experiment that would be convincing. And that's not even considering the difficulty in gathering the games missed data. I do think that Couch may be right that the 'bad vision' piece may be more important than the 'tall' piece even if both are added risk factors.I'll leave it at that for now, but going forward I'll point out players I think are good enough to be considered for playing time (i.e. they aren't hopeless bums), but who I believe are likely to be injured more often than the average RB if they get it. Le'Veon Bell for sure this year. He's someone that I believe will be dinged up virtually all the time if he gets carries. And FWIW, I've never owned Wells in any of my leagues because I believed when he was coming into the league that he wouldn't be able to stay on the field.Wouldn't Adrian Peterson , Arian Foster and Steven Jackson fit the basic criteria also?
I've been a big supporter in the past, but this is pretty telling - especially when you consider that he fits into Arians system fairly well. His offense doesn't use RBs in the passing game and want a power rusher that takes some pressure off the passing game. The fact that a new regime is not even willing to pay him backup money (when their cupboard is pretty bare) must say something.What does it say about him that the Cardinals aren't even willing to pay him $1.2M this season?I never understood all the Beanie hate. I think he is a very talented runner who just can't stay on the field. I think a change in scenery will do him some good. Hopefully he lands in a good spot and he can have another 2011 type season. I know it's a big if, but like mentioned earlier he's only 24. Someone is going to give the guy a shot.