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Carolina Panthers are officially on the clock (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter sirelfman
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RUSF18
Footballguy
Just from a quick look...Carolina has the #1 locked up with 2 wins, there are three teams with 4 wins, and five teams with 5 wins (six if MIN loses to PHI tomorrow night). I know SF-ARI play each other, as does DET-MIN, so at least two teams will get to 6 wins. So while it's unlikely, there could be as many as seven teams with 5 wins who would be slotted between #2 and #8 depending on SOS.
To stay on topic, sneaking suspicion that they don't end up taking Luck...and him coming out is questionable it seems.
To stay on topic, sneaking suspicion that they don't end up taking Luck...and him coming out is questionable it seems.
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Islander
Footballguy
The question is not whether I think Clausen is a viable NFL QB or not, or what any of us here think. What matters is what the Panthers think. It's not very common that a team drafts a QB in the early rounds two years in a row and force two young QB prospects to cohabitate on the roster from the start. I don't think the Panthers will judge they have seen enough of Clausen to conclude he's not the answer, and I don't think they draft a QB with #1 unless they trade this pick or Clausen.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Clausen stinks. New regime. There is no chance they pass on luck. How many picks would a Matt Ryan or Manning be worth? A franchise qb is worth more than 10 picks.
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
If there is a rookie cap after the CBA is done, the first pick may actually be tradeable. Most years nobody wants to deal with the high salary and risk. But if that salary is capped, there are a few teams that may want Luck (Skins, Viks, Cardinals, Bills, 49ers, etc) and be willing to deal some picks. Carolina needs picks more than a QB.
Eastwood
Footballguy
The Panthers know as well as most of us that Clausen is NOT the answer. He might improve enough to be a game manager, or a good backup, but he doesn't have "it." His pocket presence is lacking, his accuracy was pretty horrible, I can't really think of anything he's shown this year that makes me think he'll ever be a starter in the NFL. The Panthers will absolutely draft Luck if he comes out. I'd say its 99.5% likely.
I agree with this.Right now they have to do two things-They need to gauge the free agent market, and plan, and go after a decent veteran QB. Bring stability, even if it's not exceptional quality, to the position and to the entire team as the QB position just wrecked their 2010 season regardless how the rest played.Then if Luck is available, they had better call Weis and see what Weis can talk the Chiefs into to get "his boy". Claussen's value will become nil so quick if Luck declares. Pike is a fine guy to have as a 3rd string developmental project. If Luck is the future, Claussen's presence is somewhat pointless.IMO They also need to recognize that aside from Muhsin and Smith they really haven't done well at the WR position. Weed some of that out and sign or draft some for the new QB. I really think that with their running game, they only need an efficient passing offense. It doesn't need to be a 300ypg high flying attack or anything, but it does need to be where the OC can call a pass play and get it done. I bet their line is better than they seem and just needs to have some positives occur. I have never liked it, but it's been true way too often that so many lines are motivated by success. Adding a decent, just decent, passing game would make a world of difference in Carolina IMO and it doesn't seem that hard for them to accomplish.Isn't one of their backs a free agent? He needs to be re-signed if they aren't going to get Luck. The dominant (or potentially dominant) run game has to be their starting point or they might as well disassemble it all and start anew throwing the next few years away.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
The real question is will Andrew Luck make Steve Smith relevant again?
I disagree. I don't see that from Claussen at all.How old is Mark Rypien? 50? He could be a decent NFL backup right now probably because he can read defenses and won't make mistakes. Oh yeah and he can make a couple throws. The 3rd spot is for development.The backup can not be a mistake prone guy. More often than not, if a team does that and the backup gets in-the season is over. It either has to click for Claussen after struggling his rookie year (like Eli) or he goes to third string. Mistake prone guys are just intolerable as backups. It doesn't need to be like Dilfer and the Ravens super bowl run, but a reasonable amount of mistake free football.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
So if Andrew Luck doesnt come out, who is the next best player? Would they stil lgo QB and grab a Mallett? Or he isnot worthy of #1?
dharmapunk
Footballguy
I'm interested in this as a Steve Smith dynasty owner. I'm hoping that the new regime trades him to a good team for picks to help rebuilding. It makes sense, anyway.
Smith's done as an elite WR. Some of you guys need to wipe your memory clean and go look at his PFR page, taking in his age and his decline. He was an awesome guy to root for but that's clouding your judgement here IMO. The numbers tell a crystal clear story with him (and Lee Evans). We all do this in FF. You're just going to have to accept it.
Here:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitSt01.htm
1500+ yards
1100+ yards
1000+yards at 28 and then the ever so predictable "no I'm not done yet"
1400+ yards at 29.
The grrr age of 30 comes and he only gets 982 yards.
At age of 31, he's got 554 yards and a game left.
You have seen this before with other players, it just stinks because Smith was so fun to watch.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitSt01.htm
1500+ yards
1100+ yards
1000+yards at 28 and then the ever so predictable "no I'm not done yet"
1400+ yards at 29.
The grrr age of 30 comes and he only gets 982 yards.
At age of 31, he's got 554 yards and a game left.
You have seen this before with other players, it just stinks because Smith was so fun to watch.
It's very likely the draft happens before the new CBA is agreed to (and before the old CBA expires). The uncertainty around the new CBA will likely preclude anyone from trading up to #1 overall slot.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
bluesclues
Footballguy
If Luck is there they take him.
If he stays in school, they need to drop down in the draft and acquire linemen to build around.
DeAngelo needs to be dealt for a 4th rounder to another team and allow Stewart/Goodsoon/Sutton to take over @ RB.
Steve Smith should also be dealt or released and allow some of the young WR's to get PT.
This team is in shambles.
I cannot think of an area they dont need help in.
If he stays in school, they need to drop down in the draft and acquire linemen to build around.
DeAngelo needs to be dealt for a 4th rounder to another team and allow Stewart/Goodsoon/Sutton to take over @ RB.
Steve Smith should also be dealt or released and allow some of the young WR's to get PT.
This team is in shambles.
I cannot think of an area they dont need help in.
It has nothing to do with age and everything to do with his QB's. The "grr age of 30" means nothing to WR's. Terrell Owens, Derrick Mason, Reggie Wayne, Santana Moss, Anquan Boldin and Deion Branch are all 30+ and are all top 30 WR's. Andre Johnson, Brandon Lloyd and Roddy White are all 29 and showing no signs of slowing down.So 1/3 of the top 27 Wr's are 30, or very close to it.
Eastwood
Footballguy
not ready to put a fork in Smith either. If you watched Panthers games the last few years, his QB play was beyond horrible. Its basically what killed Fitz this year. No one is doubting his talent, but his QBs couldn't throw a ball anywhere near him on a regular basis. Same thing with Smitty for 2 or 3 straight years. I wouldn't move Smitty in a dynasty unless I had a middle first rounder for him.
Englishteacher
Footballguy
The Panthers aren't that far off from competing IMO. Really what's killed them is the QB play. It's been beyond terrible.
The O-Line is actually pretty good with two bookend tackles and a center who's pretty good. Injuries have hurt them here.
The skill positions are actually very good minus a possession type WR to complement SMith who I think has plenty of game left but needs a decent QB to make him viable again.
The Defense has several building blocks. Injuries and free agency (Peppers) have hurt the unit but a solid draft or two and they should be OK.
Really, when you have no passing game you don't have a chance in the NFL. The ground attack was severely hurt this year because opposing defenses did not respect the pass.
If Luck comes out there's no way they pass on him. Forget this stuff about trading down. We've seen this year in Arizona that taking away a great QB hamstrings a team. No way they pass on a guy many are saying is one of the best QB prospects to come out in the last 10-20 years, CBA or not. You pay the guy no matter what and reap the benefits of having a franchise signal caller for the next 10 years.
I could even see the Panthers going for Newton if Luck is not coming out. Maybe a trade down in that scenario but QB is that important.
The O-Line is actually pretty good with two bookend tackles and a center who's pretty good. Injuries have hurt them here.
The skill positions are actually very good minus a possession type WR to complement SMith who I think has plenty of game left but needs a decent QB to make him viable again.
The Defense has several building blocks. Injuries and free agency (Peppers) have hurt the unit but a solid draft or two and they should be OK.
Really, when you have no passing game you don't have a chance in the NFL. The ground attack was severely hurt this year because opposing defenses did not respect the pass.
If Luck comes out there's no way they pass on him. Forget this stuff about trading down. We've seen this year in Arizona that taking away a great QB hamstrings a team. No way they pass on a guy many are saying is one of the best QB prospects to come out in the last 10-20 years, CBA or not. You pay the guy no matter what and reap the benefits of having a franchise signal caller for the next 10 years.
I could even see the Panthers going for Newton if Luck is not coming out. Maybe a trade down in that scenario but QB is that important.
OK. Like I said originally, people just have trouble accepting it. That's fine. We disagree.Get back with me (as if) next year at this time. Not much more one can add to the discussion here is all.
ETA we did have threads on this very topic this past summer and there were plenty of people that said I was wrong and drafted him fairly early. I know you are going to say "but it was the QB play" like you did above so...just saying, we have done this before and it has showed some results already.
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benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
If you can explain Jerry Rice being productive at his old age, TO, Driver, Mason, etc.....and how Steve Smith can't be them....then I will believe you. Until then...it's his QB play. Steve Smith loves football....he is passionate and a hard worker....those guys make it as older players.
PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
Honestly the Panthers are one of the best teams, in terms of total talent, to get the #1 pick in a long time. Charles Johnson has had a breakout season at end, Thomas Davis will be back next year to go with Jon Beason, and Chris Gamble and Charles Godfrey are pretty good players in the secondary. Add in that Deangelo is a tradable commodity and the Panthers could be competitive again in very little time if they get a QB. Unfortunately for them their division looks like it's going to be a beast for years to come.
I'm not sure Smith is done as a productive wr, but I do feel he is done as an elite ff wr. The major difference for him versus some of the wr's who have had success in their 30's is size. Smith at his best, was such a great athlete he would jump over guys even though is is 5'9 (at best). He has relied so much on his athletism to be succesful I think he is more vulnerable to slowing down faster, due to age.
All that said...you add Luck and I could see Smith having a nice low end wr2 type season for a yr or two. I would sell as fast as I could to the first guy willing to give me wr2 type value, if that started to happen.
ffchamp1
Footballguy
Bring in Harbaugh
Trade a 2nd round pick for Kevin Kolb
Draft EJ Green after sliding down a couple of spots
Harbaugh is NOT linked to Luck and the only reason people think this is because they are both at Stanford.
Harbaugh knows you have to win now, Luck will not be that type of player for this team. Sure he should be good but give me Kolb and Green every day over Luck.
Trade a 2nd round pick for Kevin Kolb
Draft EJ Green after sliding down a couple of spots
Harbaugh is NOT linked to Luck and the only reason people think this is because they are both at Stanford.
Harbaugh knows you have to win now, Luck will not be that type of player for this team. Sure he should be good but give me Kolb and Green every day over Luck.
Tau837
Footballguy
How could this work? Deangelo is a UFA. Are you suggesting that the Panthers sign should tag and then trade him? I hear this thrown out periodically, but how often does this actually happen?I think Deangelo walks and the Panthers get nothing in return other than a possible compensatory pick in the 2012 draft.
Idiot Boxer
Footballguy
They don't have a second round pick.
ffchamp1
Footballguy
By sliding down they would garner extra picks
Tau837
Footballguy
Hmm.Smith - 46/554/2 in 14 gamesFitz - 79/1012/5 in 15 gamesYour comparison illustrates that great WRs like Fitz can still produce with horrible QB play. Smith hasn't been able to do that.LOL at the notion of getting a middle first round pick for Smith at this point.
Tau837
Footballguy
Jerry Rice and Owens are first ballot HOFers. Apples and oranges.Driver has played in a top passing offense. Apples and oranges.
Mason is your best example here, but finding a single data point isn't overly meaningful. That said, I think there are a couple different conversations that can be had on Smith. If the question is whether or not he can help the Panthers for a few more years, I think the answer is yes, no question. If the question is whether or not he will ever produce again like a top WR, I think the answer is very likely no.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Since Steve Smith arrived in 2003(his 3rd year in the NFL) he has finished in the top 20 of FF WR's(according to FBG's scoring) in every season until this year, outside of the entire season he missed in 2004.
I think what we can call this season is an outlier. Chalk it up to a horrible team, bad QB play, coaching, his lowest amount of targets since 2002.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
who is the lucky duck that has their 2nd round pick? Dont say New England
pantherclub
Footballguy
Would you trade picks for Peyton Manning? How about Matt Ryan? As a franchise you only get this chance once in a lifetime and you have to take the "risk" that Luck will be someone you build around. Everyone says he is the real deal. Everyone. It makes no sense to trade down and acquire picks. How many picks do you think you can get? Even then you are praying that all of those pan out, meanwhile whoever you traded with just set themselves up for 15 years. It is moronic to say trade Luck for pics, there is no sense in that at all.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Derek Anderson is not a good NFL QB, but he is infinitely better than anything the Panthers have put on the field this year.
Arizona may be 31st in passing in the league, but they are so much better than the team thats 32nd its actually comical. Carolina averages 39 yards per game less than Arizona. That's astoundingly bad.
Here's your bottom 5 passing offenses and their yards per game and TDs.
28. KC 192/game 27tds
29. TEN 189/game 22tds
30. CLE 187/game 12tds
31. ARI 181/game 9tds
32. CAR 142/game 8tds
Trying to judge Steve Smith off of anything that has happened this year is foolish. Here's what FBGs had to say about him after his week 15 matchup.
Week 15 vs ARI - Although he only caught two passes in this game, Smith was targeted often by Clausen and almost made a couple of big catches down the field. Smith is still frustrated with how things are going in this offense but he has not lost a step at all. If the Panthers do decide to move him in the offseason, another team is going to get a player who has plenty of good games left in his career.
Geesh, there's only 32 teams. Top 20 is not elite.
Eastwood
Footballguy
Look at the QB ratings for the Cardinals vs the Panthers. Fitz' numbers would have been EVEN LOWER if he was playing for Carolina. And I never said Smitty would gather a mid 1st, I said I wouldn't MOVE him unless someone paid that. He isn't done, and I'll be glad to come back and eat crow or tip my hat when he gets a competent, start worthy QB again.
(Sorry to be wise, but there's a point)Look at the QB ratings for the guy that threw to Smith versus the ratings for the guy that threw to Fitz.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Patriots
Idiot Boxer
Footballguy
At least you didn't say New England.
Fensalk
Footballguy
Because John Fox was on the hot seat a year ago, the Panthers made a draft day deal for the present last April in trading their 2011 2nd round pick to the Patriots. In return, the Panthers received from the Patriots a 2010 3rd round pick (#89 overall) which was used on a local guy, QB/WR Armanti Edwards. Edwards' role was to help them run a "wildcat" formation every so often (Carolina termed it the "mountaineer"). He hasn't been much of a WR though and was something like a 3rd string QB and he's been inactive lately. He hasn't contributed at all. Anyway the Patriots as it turned out got a pick at the top of round 2 out of it all.
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
Good question. Bradford would have made Michael Clayton relevant had he not been injured, so anything is possible (heck, he put Amendola on the map). And NO ONE was saying that Bradford was a "can't miss" prospect. Plus, one the offensive-side of the ball, I don't think St. Louis was in any better shape entering 2010, than the Panthers will be in 2011. In the end, it all comes down to coaching. See who lands in Charlotte first as a HC, and then you can better determine long-term/short-term success for Smith.
ITYM Mark.And there were plenty of people calling Bradford a can't miss prospect. I don't mean to nitpick, I just find it quite relevant since Luck is part of the discussion
EBF
Footballguy
If I were a Panther fan, I would be praying that Luck declares. I have seen almost every down he has played this season and I really think he's going to be a successful NFL QB. He does a phenomenal job of keeping the chains moving and always seems to take whatever the defense gives him. I had some questions about his ability to perform in the clutch after his disastrous game against Cal in 2009, but he answered those questions this year by consistently showing great poise in high pressure situations. He also has a natural sense for the pass rush, a great understanding of defenses, and good mobility. The only area where he showed any weakness was deep passing. He floated a few into dangerous coverage and sometimes relied on his receivers making incredible catches. Still, he's way too good to pass up. If he declares, he will be the top pick. Jimmy Clausen will become the new Kellen Clemens. Now...if Luck doesn't declare then things become more interesting. I really haven't done my homework on the likes of DaQuan Bowers and I don't think it makes a lot of sense to use a top 5 pick on a WR. I would be tempted to roll the dice on Cam Newton. In my view, he combines the height and running skills of Vince Young with the arm strength of Mike Vick. He's really raw as a passer and it's hard to say if he has the mental qualities needed to play the position well in the NFL, but he has been dominant in college and he possesses the raw physical tools for NFL success. Vince Young is an awful passer and he has still almost been serviceable in the NFL. If that's a worst case scenario for Newton then I think he's worth a shot. Plus, he'll excite the fan base and put butts in the seats. That's an important part of the equation.
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Spike
Footballguy
Fixed.And I would put the odds at VERY good that the Patriots will trade that pick for a mini-King's Ransom.
ffchamp1
Footballguy
Moronaic may be a bit extreme don't ya think. If not then let's stay with it. How many upper echelon, top tier, #1 QB's have panned out to be the QB of the franchise for 15 years as you say?Not everyone believes Luck is a can't miss this year. How many picks would someone give up to move up to select Luck, silly question since we don't have a partner and we don't know their draft position and need.I get it, you want Luck...probably just should have said that
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