Carson Palmer = Value in redraft? (1 Viewer)

[amnesiac]

from another thread.

I expect Palmer to start by week 4, playing at about 90%.  Given his age and long term dynasty value, that's just fine by me.  That extra month will do him good.

lets assume this is correct.where do you draft Palmer in redraft? how far does he fall?

if you can get him late enough, you could draft him as your #1, and draft your backup/fill-in guy around the same time. (this would assume loading up on RB and WR early in the draft.)

or does his stock not fall that far?

 

[aussiehockeyfan]

If he's only gone for 4 weeks and the sked is favourable, then I could see him being taken in the sixth round. But since i'm a QB-free fall exponent, I wouldn't touch Palmer (much less any other QB) until at least the 8th round (if not later).

 

[amnesiac]

If he's only gone for 4 weeks and the sked is favourable, then I could see him being taken in the sixth round. But since i'm a QB-free fall exponent, I wouldn't touch Palmer (much less any other QB) until at least the 8th round (if not later).

OK, lets say he falls to the 6th round.by that time you could have 3 RBs and 2 WRs. i would probably jump on him in round six, draft a few more WRs/BPAs, then grab my other QB around round 10.

any other thoughts?

 

[steelerchic]

Palmer is worth picking up in the mid rounds but I would come right back and pick up a good backup.

Palmer has the potential and the weapons to have another great fantasy year.

 

[bagger.]

If he's only gone for 4 weeks and the sked is favourable, then I could see him being taken in the sixth round. But since i'm a QB-free fall exponent, I wouldn't touch Palmer (much less any other QB) until at least the 8th round (if not later).

OK, lets say he falls to the 6th round.by that time you could have 3 RBs and 2 WRs. i would probably jump on him in round six, draft a few more WRs/BPAs, then grab my other QB around round 10.

any other thoughts?

you need to re-think this.

 

[bagger.]

Palmer is worth picking up in the mid rounds but I would come right back and pick up a good backup.

Palmer has the potential and the weapons to have another great fantasy year.

you could pick palmer and another "backup" in the mid rounds, or wait until the 9th/10th to get a QB who will just as likely outperform the guys you handcuffed in the mid rounds while also getting better RB/WR talent.

 

[amnesiac]

If he's only gone for 4 weeks and the sked is favourable, then I could see him being taken in the sixth round. But since i'm a QB-free fall exponent, I wouldn't touch Palmer (much less any other QB) until at least the 8th round (if not later).

OK, lets say he falls to the 6th round.by that time you could have 3 RBs and 2 WRs. i would probably jump on him in round six, draft a few more WRs/BPAs, then grab my other QB around round 10.

any other thoughts?

you need to re-think this.

it's still early. haven't even had the rookie draft yet.just kinda thinking out loud.

 

[perry147]

from another thread.

I expect Palmer to start by week 4, playing at about 90%. Given his age and long term dynasty value, that's just fine by me. That extra month will do him good.

lets assume this is correct.where do you draft Palmer in redraft? how far does he fall?

if you can get him late enough, you could draft him as your #1, and draft your backup/fill-in guy around the same time. (this would assume loading up on RB and WR early in the draft.)

or does his stock not fall that far?

I do not know where the Rev is getting his info from but all I have heard is that Palmer is expected back for the beginning of the season. But lets say he hits an unexpected snag and does not - I would then follow the stratagy outlined above. I would target Palmer around the 6th round and then draft Farve or maybe the Jets QB as a fill in.Edit for Grammer.

 

[steelerchic]

Palmer is worth picking up in the mid rounds but I would come right back and pick up a good backup.

Palmer has the potential and the weapons to have another great fantasy year.

you could pick palmer and another "backup" in the mid rounds, or wait until the 9th/10th to get a QB who will just as likely outperform the guys you handcuffed in the mid rounds while also getting better RB/WR talent.

I suggest picking up Palmer earlier than later because he I think that he will be one of the top 10 QBs to go and seeing what he can do, I'd take the chance. You need a good back-up to hold you over for the first 4 weeks if need be. The Back Up should be sought after according to how the draft is going.

 

[amnesiac]

apparently, Cincinnati's bye is week 5, so should we assume week 6 return?

or, at least under this senario, we'd have to start the backup weeks 1-3 and week 5.

 

[bagger.]

If he's only gone for 4 weeks and the sked is favourable, then I could see him being taken in the sixth round. But since i'm a QB-free fall exponent, I wouldn't touch Palmer (much less any other QB) until at least the 8th round (if not later).

OK, lets say he falls to the 6th round.by that time you could have 3 RBs and 2 WRs. i would probably jump on him in round six, draft a few more WRs/BPAs, then grab my other QB around round 10.

any other thoughts?

you need to re-think this.

it's still early. haven't even had the rookie draft yet.just kinda thinking out loud.

i hear ya.i am just saying that if you want to pay for a QB that early, there better be no question marks around him.

you can get QBs in the 9th/10th rounds and later who will be healthy all season and will likely perform just as good or insignificantly worse than the guy you get in the 6th.

especially if that guy in the 6th is coming off a major injury.

i have palmer in a dynasty league so i hope he comes back 100%. but i am avoiding him in redrafts. the risk is too great for where people will pay for him.

 

[bagger.]

Palmer is worth picking up in the mid rounds but I would come right back and pick up a good backup.

Palmer has the potential and the weapons to have another great fantasy year.

you could pick palmer and another "backup" in the mid rounds, or wait until the 9th/10th to get a QB who will just as likely outperform the guys you handcuffed in the mid rounds while also getting better RB/WR talent.

I suggest picking up Palmer earlier than later because he I think that he will be one of the top 10 QBs to go and seeing what he can do, I'd take the chance. You need a good back-up to hold you over for the first 4 weeks if need be. The Back Up should be sought after according to how the draft is going.

but you can get a top 10 QB in the 10th round.

 

[amnesiac]

but you can get a top 10 QB in the 10th round.

btw, who do you have in mind for this year?my usual drafting strategy is to wait as long as possible for qbs, so i'm curious who you're looking at.

 

[steelerchic]

Palmer is worth picking up in the mid rounds but I would come right back and pick up a good backup.

Palmer has the potential and the weapons to have another great fantasy year.

you could pick palmer and another "backup" in the mid rounds, or wait until the 9th/10th to get a QB who will just as likely outperform the guys you handcuffed in the mid rounds while also getting better RB/WR talent.

I suggest picking up Palmer earlier than later because he I think that he will be one of the top 10 QBs to go and seeing what he can do, I'd take the chance. You need a good back-up to hold you over for the first 4 weeks if need be. The Back Up should be sought after according to how the draft is going.

but you can get a top 10 QB in the 10th round.

not always! That's top 10 giving his latest date of return. He will go before that if things progress nicely.

 

[steelerchic]

As crazy as it sounds, last year I was in a league where someone picked a DST in the first round and the top 10 QB's were gone by the 8th round. I managed to get Carr as my backup. You can guess where that got me.

 

[nelly29]

apparently, Cincinnati's bye is week 5, so should we assume week 6 return?

or, at least under this senario, we'd have to start the backup weeks 1-3 and week 5.

I agree if he does miss the first few weeks he will not play week 4...unless they were 0-3 and in need of a win in a bad bad way....even then I think they sit him 1 more game to get him 3 more weeks of rehab.....

 

[code]

i'm a QB-free fall exponent

 

[aussiehockeyfan]

i'm a QB-free fall exponent

I assume it's a VBD-concept, but since I don't exactly know what VBD actually is (i never went to FFU - Fantasy Football University), I can only give you a bastardised (ie, what i think it is) version. Basically, because most leagues only start 1 QB per team, and there are 32 NFL QBs vis-a-vis the situation in other positions, ie RB and the fact that the standard deviation of QBs vis-a-vis other positions is lower, you can afford to wait until the late rounds to pick up a "starting quality fantasy QB". By doing so, you can spend your mid-round picks on depth at positions such as RB - which are high-demand, low-supply positions.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Project his stats over a full season. Multiply his projected FP by .75. Slot that number in with the other QBs and see where his VBD dictates he should be drafted. Check Antsports or another mock site to see what his ADP is and compare it to where the VBD app dictates he should be drafted. This will tell you whether or not he represents value.

 

[UnknownCoach]

People are too in love with him due to last season's numbers. He's not going to last long enough in the draft to be a value pick.

Last year he had a cake schedule. This year he has a tough schedule. He's going to miss a lot of training camp and practice time. He's not going to repeat last year's success. He could make a good starter but people are going to overpay, not underpay when your draft comes around.

 

[amnesiac]

People are too in love with him due to last season's numbers. He's not going to last long enough in the draft to be a value pick.

Last year he had a cake schedule. This year he has a tough schedule. He's going to miss a lot of training camp and practice time. He's not going to repeat last year's success. He could make a good starter but people are going to overpay, not underpay when your draft comes around.

you could be right.i was just wondering if he isn't able to go to begin the season, if that would scare enough people to the point that he falls lower than he should.

 

[aussiehockeyfan]

You probably wont get "value" unless you wait until the 8th round+ .

 

[cstu]

QB coming off torn ACL + 2nd toughest SOS = 7+ round pick to me

There are going to be a lot better QB values in most leagues than Palmer. I really don't like his schedule and even if his knee is 100% by the beginning of the season I don't think he'll immediately have the chemistry with his WR's like he did before the injury. If he's there in the 6th I may consider him but it all depends on who else is available.

 

[bagger.]

but you can get a top 10 QB in the 10th round.

btw, who do you have in mind for this year?my usual drafting strategy is to wait as long as possible for qbs, so i'm curious who you're looking at.

i actually have not done any projections yet as i am waiting until after the draft.however, i would bet you that aaron brooks is going to land in my top 10 again this year and he should be had for cheap.

 

[cstu]

Project his stats over a full season. Multiply his projected FP by .75. Slot that number in with the other QBs and see where his VBD dictates he should be drafted. Check Antsports or another mock site to see what his ADP is and compare it to where the VBD app dictates he should be drafted. This will tell you whether or not he represents value.

75% of his 2005 numbers (318 FP) would have put him at QB15 (238 FP).

 

[perry147]

but you can get a top 10 QB in the 10th round.

btw, who do you have in mind for this year?my usual drafting strategy is to wait as long as possible for qbs, so i'm curious who you're looking at.

i actually have not done any projections yet as i am waiting until after the draft.however, i would bet you that aaron brooks is going to land in my top 10 again this year and he should be had for cheap.

Aaron Brooks might end up being in the top ten but the problem with him is and it always has been is that you can not predict his performance. So if you are happy to get the occasional good game but beware of the 4 or 5 games a year in which he will kill your team with single digit scoring.

 

[brewer]

Project his stats over a full season. Multiply his projected FP by .75. Slot that number in with the other QBs and see where his VBD dictates he should be drafted. Check Antsports or another mock site to see what his ADP is and compare it to where the VBD app dictates he should be drafted. This will tell you whether or not he represents value.

75% of his 2005 numbers (318 FP) would have put him at QB15 (238 FP).

This isn't exactly right though. If you expect him to produce 75% of his numbers in the final 75% of the games, he is somewhat more valuable than that, in that you also know that you will be replacing him for the first 25% of the games with someone that will be playing.

 

[UnknownCoach]

you could be right.

i was just wondering if he isn't able to go to begin the season, if that would scare enough people to the point that he falls lower than he should.

Since most drafts are just before the start of the season, it would scare people off and possibly value him about where he should be valued. The entire scare factor is going to be based on the news at the time which should be fairly accurate as far as how many games he's going to miss. They should have a very good idea how many games he will miss prior to the season. So you cant take advantage of his uncertaintity. The reason there's so much question as to his status now is that the season is so far away and he has so much rehab to go through.

 

[aussiehockeyfan]

but you can get a top 10 QB in the 10th round.

btw, who do you have in mind for this year?my usual drafting strategy is to wait as long as possible for qbs, so i'm curious who you're looking at.

i actually have not done any projections yet as i am waiting until after the draft.however, i would bet you that aaron brooks is going to land in my top 10 again this year and he should be had for cheap.

Aaron Brooks might end up being in the top ten but the problem with him is and it always has been is that you can not predict his performance. So if you are happy to get the occasional good game but beware of the 4 or 5 games a year in which he will kill your team with single digit scoring.

Man, you don't know how much I agree with you on this point. Like T.O (for entirely different reasons), i don't see Brooks changing his modus operandi. This is why he has, and continues to be on my DND-list.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Project his stats over a full season.  Multiply his projected FP by .75.  Slot that number in with the other QBs and see where his VBD dictates he should be drafted.  Check Antsports or another mock site to see what his ADP is and compare it to where the VBD app dictates he should be drafted.  This will tell you whether or not he represents value.

75% of his 2005 numbers (318 FP) would have put him at QB15 (238 FP).

This isn't exactly right though. If you expect him to produce 75% of his numbers in the final 75% of the games, he is somewhat more valuable than that, in that you also know that you will be replacing him for the first 25% of the games with someone that will be playing.

Very true, but I was trying to keep it simple. We have no idea if he'll play week 1 or not, but if I suspected that he might not play for 4 games, I would drop him in my rankings to about where he'd land at 75% of my projected FP.

 

[Imedos]

There is no guarantee that he will pick up right where he left off last year. If he is out for 4 weeks, I expect quite a bit of rust.

 

[amnesiac]

Project his stats over a full season.  Multiply his projected FP by .75.  Slot that number in with the other QBs and see where his VBD dictates he should be drafted.  Check Antsports or another mock site to see what his ADP is and compare it to where the VBD app dictates he should be drafted.  This will tell you whether or not he represents value.

75% of his 2005 numbers (318 FP) would have put him at QB15 (238 FP).

This isn't exactly right though. If you expect him to produce 75% of his numbers in the final 75% of the games, he is somewhat more valuable than that, in that you also know that you will be replacing him for the first 25% of the games with someone that will be playing.

Very true, but I was trying to keep it simple. We have no idea if he'll play week 1 or not, but if I suspected that he might not play for 4 games, I would drop him in my rankings to about where he'd land at 75% of my projected FP.

this goes back to my original thinking.say once he's back, he's a top 5 guy.

also, assume i can draft a guy late who will give me average stats for a few games.

at what point is it worth drafting him? he's really worth somewhere between the two values. (his production, and the drop-off to the average #s for the first few weeks.)

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Project his stats over a full season.  Multiply his projected FP by .75.  Slot that number in with the other QBs and see where his VBD dictates he should be drafted.  Check Antsports or another mock site to see what his ADP is and compare it to where the VBD app dictates he should be drafted.  This will tell you whether or not he represents value.

75% of his 2005 numbers (318 FP) would have put him at QB15 (238 FP).

This isn't exactly right though. If you expect him to produce 75% of his numbers in the final 75% of the games, he is somewhat more valuable than that, in that you also know that you will be replacing him for the first 25% of the games with someone that will be playing.

Very true, but I was trying to keep it simple. We have no idea if he'll play week 1 or not, but if I suspected that he might not play for 4 games, I would drop him in my rankings to about where he'd land at 75% of my projected FP.

this goes back to my original thinking.say once he's back, he's a top 5 guy.

also, assume i can draft a guy late who will give me average stats for a few games.

at what point is it worth drafting him? he's really worth somewhere between the two values. (his production, and the drop-off to the average #s for the first few weeks.)

 

[cstu]

Let's look at the Bengals schedule and imagine that Palmer will start week 1. @KC is never easy, but it's one of the easiest games on the Bengals schedule. If you start him and he has an off day, do you start him the next week against an improved Cleveland defense? What about with the rest of his schedule that doesn't get any easier? If you do make the playoffs, he does get an easy matchup at home vs. the Raiders, but in weeks 15 and 16 he has to play at Indy and at Denver.

Bottom line, you are asking for trouble by drafting Palmer high this year and unless you get a great backup QB who does well you'll probably have a rough season.

Sep 10 @Kansas City 1:00pm

Sep 17 Cleveland 1:00pm

Sep 24 @Pittsburgh 1:00pm

Oct 1 New England 4:15pm

Week 5 BYE

Oct 15 @Tampa Bay 1:00pm

Oct 22 Carolina 1:00pm

Oct 29 Atlanta 1:00pm

Nov 5 @Baltimore 1:00pm

Nov 12 San Diego 1:00pm

Nov 19 @New Orleans 1:00pm

Nov 26 @Cleveland 1:00pm

Nov 30 Baltimore 8:00pm

Dec 10 Oakland 1:00pm

Dec 18 @Indianapolis 8:30pm

Dec 24 @Denver 4:15pm

Dec 31 Pittsburgh 1:00pm

 

[aussiehockeyfan]

This thread is getting out of hand! All these assumptions, it seems like the original creator of this thread wants our permission to draft Palmer with an early-round pick. So why are you asking our opinions again? You seem set on wanting to draft Palmer high.

 

[amnesiac]

This thread is getting out of hand! All these assumptions, it seems like the original creator of this thread wants our permission to draft Palmer with an early-round pick. So why are you asking our opinions again? You seem set on wanting to draft Palmer high.

not at all.

just seemed like something to discuss.

 

[cstu]

Here's how Palmer did against his division opponents last year, all of whom should be as good, if not better, defensively in 2006.

Steelers

@ 227 3 0

vs 227 0 2

454 3 2 (15 FP/G)

Browns

@ 280 2 1

vs 93 1 1

373 3 2 (13 FP/G)

Ravens

@ 248 2 0

vs 302 3 1

550 5 1 (22 FP/G)

 

[bagger.]

but you can get a top 10 QB in the 10th round.

btw, who do you have in mind for this year?my usual drafting strategy is to wait as long as possible for qbs, so i'm curious who you're looking at.

i actually have not done any projections yet as i am waiting until after the draft.however, i would bet you that aaron brooks is going to land in my top 10 again this year and he should be had for cheap.

Aaron Brooks might end up being in the top ten but the problem with him is and it always has been is that you can not predict his performance. So if you are happy to get the occasional good game but beware of the 4 or 5 games a year in which he will kill your team with single digit scoring.

This is classic myth versus reality.

Brooks' fantasy ranking over the past 5 years:

Year        Value        Pos. Rank    Overall Rank--------------------------------------------------2001          59             6             212002          44             6             362003          26             5             442004          32             8             462005           0            16            130--------------------------------------------------

He has been anything but inconsistant.

 

[cstu]

but you can get a top 10 QB in the 10th round.

btw, who do you have in mind for this year?my usual drafting strategy is to wait as long as possible for qbs, so i'm curious who you're looking at.

i actually have not done any projections yet as i am waiting until after the draft.however, i would bet you that aaron brooks is going to land in my top 10 again this year and he should be had for cheap.

Aaron Brooks might end up being in the top ten but the problem with him is and it always has been is that you can not predict his performance. So if you are happy to get the occasional good game but beware of the 4 or 5 games a year in which he will kill your team with single digit scoring.

This is classic myth versus reality.

Brooks' fantasy ranking over the past 5 years:

Year Value Pos. Rank Overall Rank--------------------------------------------------2001 59 6 212002 44 6 362003 26 5 442004 32 8 462005 0 16 130--------------------------------------------------He has been anything but inconsistant.

I think he's referring to week to week, not year to year. He ends up with good final numbers, but week to week you never know if he's going to throw for 300 and 3 TD's or a 100 and 0.It would be great to see some statistical analysis of Brooks to see if the standard deviation of his fantasy points has been higher than other QB's.

 

[aussiehockeyfan]

Too lazy! Someone should do it though.

But i'll still go with the "old wives tale" that Brooks is a terrible fantasy QB because he's just so inconsistent. Right now I just chuckle at all those poor SOBs who draft AB.

 

[bagger.]

It would be great to see some statistical analysis of Brooks to see if the standard deviation of his fantasy points has been higher than other QB's.

I would bet that it would be statistically insignificant.Bottom line, if Brooks is consistantly top 8-6, he can't have that many single digit weeks.

Now you guys have made me bring facts...

OK, ignoring 2005 which was a non-top 10 year (and therefore everyone can agree he sucked) let's look at the past few years.

8. 8. Brooks, Aaron NOS QB 324.40 16.52 29.56 21.34 10.98 17.74 24.46 17.28 B 14.52 22.46 21.78 22.56 28.84 17.88 20.46 22.28 15.742004 he had 0 single digit weeks as the #8 QB.

9. 12. Brooks, Aaron NOS QB 300 16 19 14 6 15 19 33 19 12 B 12 17 23 15 42 23 15

2003 he had 1.I cannot pull data readily for any years beyond that, but I think this myth has been BUSTED.

 

[bagger.]

Too lazy! Someone should do it though.

But i'll still go with the "old wives tale" that Brooks is a terrible fantasy QB because he's just so inconsistent. Right now I just chuckle at all those poor SOBs who draft AB.

keep up the solid analysis.

 

[bagger.]

Carson Palmer is John Elway minus the wheels. Palmer has the best arm I have seen since Elway played. I don't see the Bengals rushing out to get a QB to replace Jon Kitna as his backup...so I wouldn't be overly concerned here. I expect Palmer to start the 2006 season and this makes him (at worst) a 4th round pick in redrafts.

So you ignore injury risk completely?

 

[aussiehockeyfan]

Not to be a pain, but you need to compare Brooks vis-a-vis to the average of the top-12 QBs in any given year.

 

[bagger.]

Not to be a pain, but you need to compare Brooks vis-a-vis to the average of the top-12 QBs in any given year.

Why? You need to compare Brooks to QBs in general to see how inconsistant he is. The fact that he is top 6-8 almost every year gives you the obvious result that even if he is less consistant than some QBs, he is being less consistant at a higher level.

You harped about all of his single digit weeks. Where are they exactly?

 

[Imedos]

Not to be a pain, but you need to compare Brooks vis-a-vis to the average of the top-12 QBs in any given year.

Why? You need to compare Brooks to QBs in general to see how inconsistant he is. The fact that he is top 6-8 almost every year gives you the obvious result that even if he is less consistant than some QBs, he is being less consistant at a higher level.

You harped about all of his single digit weeks. Where are they exactly?

fyi, Limbaugh thinks you overrate Brooks because he is black.Really I've been leary of Brooks the past two years because I thought he was in danger of the team giving up on him and moving in a different direction, even with no other viable qb on the roster. I was right one out of two years I guess.

This year he is a good buy low candidate, but you'd have to handcuff him to whatever young qb is nipping at his heels(Walter, VY, whoever). Provided of course that he is indeed annointed as the starter.

 

[aussiehockeyfan]

Just a basic "quick" look at his game-by-game #s from '01-'04 (4 seasons).

I'm going to assume that the "average" game for a QB is 20 fantasy points (25/1; 6pts per TD). Anything lower than about 15 and he will have "hurt" you if you started him. Anything better than 25 is considered great.

In '01, he had 5 games where he scored less than 15 fantasy points.

In '02, he had 5 games where he scored less than 15 fantasy points.

In '03, he had 6 games where he scored less than 15 fantasy points.

In '04, he had 7 games where he scored less than 15 fantasy points.

Just very rough "head" calculations. Like you said, didn't count '05.

He underperforms in about 35% of his games.

This would be useful if there was someone I could compare those #s with. Any ideas who would be considered "consistent"? Somebody comparable with Brooks.

EDIT: didn't include FUMBLES LOST... he had 2, 5, 11 & 2. Those would have lowered some of his "average" games and made them "bad". I did include his rushing yards and TDs.

 

[cstu]

Hasselbeck in 2005:

Weeks under 10 FP's - 1

Weeks under 15 FP's - 4

Weeks with 15 or more FP's - 10

I didn't include week 17.

 

[KarmaPolice]

but you can get a top 10 QB in the 10th round.

btw, who do you have in mind for this year?my usual drafting strategy is to wait as long as possible for qbs, so i'm curious who you're looking at.

Warner, Bledsoe, or Brad Johnson in the hizzie!!!

 

[amnesiac]

but you can get a top 10 QB in the 10th round.

btw, who do you have in mind for this year?my usual drafting strategy is to wait as long as possible for qbs, so i'm curious who you're looking at.

Warner, Bledsoe, or Brad Johnson in the hizzie!!!

of those three, i'd say Johnson has the best chance of flying under the radarWarner just got Edge, and Blesoe just got T.O.