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Chad Johnson v. Ravens defense (1 Viewer)

S

Silver & Black

Footballguy
It's the last week of the regular season in my league and I need a win (coupled with another's loss) to win my division so every coaching decision counts now.

I know Ocho Cinco is playing lights out right now, but the Ravens D has been playing flat out awesome lately as well. The game is a thursday night special, and we all know how much CJ loves the spotlight.

As of right now, I am very much leaning towards sitting him down but am afraid he will have a monster game if I do. Any thoughts about how you think Chad will perform on Thursday?

Thanks

 
Hoping for a lot of points is different from trying to accurately forecast what will actually happen. Which is the core of my problem.

I have a very solid option if I don't start Chad so I am looking for opinions about how Chad will do against a very tough Baltimore defense, not what we are hoping he will do.

 
you don't sit the number 1 WR in football.....i don't care about matchups...don't over think it.

yes.

i am a CJ owner.

 
Come on man.......you're in a must win game and you're thinking of benching Chad Johnson?

Baltimore is doubly tough against the run, Cinci hasn't been running the ball all that well this year. If you were thinking of benching a stud, it would be Rudi Johnson, not Chad Johnson. Carson Palmer is playing his best ball of the year and I expect him to play well vs. Baltimore which will translate into a couple of big plays for Chad Johnson.

 
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I honestly didn't want to have this be a "who do I start thread." My problem is that I also have Andre Johnson, who is a star in his own right. Everyone makes fun of the Raiders (rightfully so), but their defense is very solid against the pass this year.

Either way, I will be benching a stud. I just worry about Chad because he has only been a "stud" the last few weeks. Johnson has been solid all year.

With Henry and Houshmanzadah being viable options against a defense that is bound to key on Chad, I am looking for everyone to tell me I'm crazy for sitting Chad.

 
Carson Palmer has put up fantastic numbers in the past against the Ravens, the first game this season - not so much. But alot have changed since, esp the play of the o-line.

I'm starting both Palmer and CJ with confidence

 
I agree with the others, I would find it very hard to bench CJ in the midst of this run he has going. I think it helps that the game is in Cincy. Also, Palmer is a very good, very smart quarterback who should be able to pick up the Raven blitz packages and read the secondary better than most qbs. He does like to throw the quick slant, or hitch to CJ which could put him in a position to make a big play. I am a CJ owner, with solid wrs behind him (Coles and Evans) and wouldn't even consider benching him at this point.

 
Iwannabeacowboybaby! said:
Come on man.......you're in a must win game and you're thinking of benching Chad Johnson?Baltimore is doubly tough against the run, Cinci hasn't been running the ball all that well this year. If you were thinking of benching a stud, it would be Rudi Johnson, not Chad Johnson. Carson Palmer is playing his best ball of the year and I expect him to play well vs. Baltimore which will translate into a couple of big plays for Chad Johnson.
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:goodposting: I have Rudi Johnson and if I had a good alternative I'd consider benching him. But Chad Johnson no way.
 
Silver & Black said:
I honestly didn't want to have this be a "who do I start thread." My problem is that I also have Andre Johnson, who is a star in his own right. Everyone makes fun of the Raiders (rightfully so), but their defense is very solid against the pass this year.Either way, I will be benching a stud. I just worry about Chad because he has only been a "stud" the last few weeks. Johnson has been solid all year.With Henry and Houshmanzadah being viable options against a defense that is bound to key on Chad, I am looking for everyone to tell me I'm crazy for sitting Chad.
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I'll bite...if you are starting CJ and AJ, who would you be benching?
 
The two main issues that were holding back CJ have been resolved for the most part. Carson Palmer's mechanics are much improved and the offensive line is giving him enough time to throw the deep and timing routes on time. There were smaller issues as well (nagging injuries for CJ, differences in play calling) that have improved in CJs favor as well.

The Ravens (and the 46 scheme) are susceptible to the deep ball if you can get your QB time to throw. They have given up a huge amount of long passing plays this season. If Ghiaciuc can make the right line calls (he's vastly improved), and Rudi can take some of the heat off in blitz pickup (he's been way above average the past two weeks), Palmer and CJ will be much more likely to have the success they had in 2004-05 (routinely 5-6 catches, 90 plus yards, and ample red zone targets) against the Ravens than the stinker they put up earlier this season.

I think they will and I think CJ is a very good start.

 
Silver & Black said:
I honestly didn't want to have this be a "who do I start thread." My problem is that I also have Andre Johnson, who is a star in his own right. Everyone makes fun of the Raiders (rightfully so), but their defense is very solid against the pass this year.Either way, I will be benching a stud. I just worry about Chad because he has only been a "stud" the last few weeks. Johnson has been solid all year.With Henry and Houshmanzadah being viable options against a defense that is bound to key on Chad, I am looking for everyone to tell me I'm crazy for sitting Chad.
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You only can start one WR? Both of those guys are better oprions against anyone than all but the top handful of RBs. If you have to choose go Chad, nothing else think Palmer > Carr
 
I'm also in a must win- win and I'm in the playoffs, lose I'm out.

I have Chad J and Housh, so I have alot riding on the game. I think both will do fine with Housh getting alot of short passes. Hopefully Chad can break a big one.

My biggest concern is actually the weather. I see there is forecast for wind and rain. Any homers have an idea of how bad it will be, and does this downgrade everyone's #85 expectations?

 
90% chance of rain and wind. I'm grounding all of my Bengals...This same storm just rolled thru my area and its not fun...

 
Oh where is that link for the poor sap asking if he should bench the #1 RB against a team that historically shuts him down a couple weeks ago.

Where did I put that thing...

 
I did the hour by hour forecast on weather.com and they have heavy rain/thunderstorms predicted but only light winds. I’m a CJ and Palmer owner and have loved it the past month, but I’m also skittish on this game. I agree, I’m not even thinking about benching CJ; you have to ride him out, but Palmer on the other hand, I might sit down for Romo. But I hate to do that. This sucks.

 
As a Ravens homer, I would suggest you start CJ with full confidence. Samari Rolle has been getting toasted this year, and CJ and Palmer traditionally fare very well vs. the Ravens. As noted above, a team that can hit the deep ball in the face of heavy pressure can feast vs. the Ravens 46 defense.

 
I would expect the Bengals to try to get him matched up against Rolle a lot, taking him deep down the field where possible.

It's certainly possible Housh or Henry ends up posting better numbers, but I wouldn't just assume Little T.O. is useless because of the Ravens defense.

 
Isotopes said:
Silver & Black said:
I honestly didn't want to have this be a "who do I start thread." My problem is that I also have Andre Johnson, who is a star in his own right. Everyone makes fun of the Raiders (rightfully so), but their defense is very solid against the pass this year.Either way, I will be benching a stud. I just worry about Chad because he has only been a "stud" the last few weeks. Johnson has been solid all year.With Henry and Houshmanzadah being viable options against a defense that is bound to key on Chad, I am looking for everyone to tell me I'm crazy for sitting Chad.
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I'll bite...if you are starting CJ and AJ, who would you be benching?
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Hey topes.I can start 2 WR's and I have D-Jax, Andre Johnson and Chad. I obtained both Johnsons right before my trading deadline.Before this thread, I was strongly leaning towards going with Jax and Andre Johnson. But now, I'm not so sure.Thanks for the feedback guys. :thumbup:
 
Solid wr corps, it would be tough to bench any of those 3. The weather in Cincy is a wrinkle I hadn't considered....I will still go with CJ most likely, but that does warrant consideration.

 
The one rule of fantasy that translates to every league and scoring system: DON'T BENCH YOUR STUDS.

With that said, you need to ask yourself, "Is Chad Johnson one of my studs?" If your answer is yes, you play him no matter if he is playing the 1985 Bears Defense.

 
Isotopes said:
Solid wr corps, it would be tough to bench any of those 3. The weather in Cincy is a wrinkle I hadn't considered....I will still go with CJ most likely, but that does warrant consideration.
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Thanks, I got lucky with a couple of big trades with teams that were out of it. The guy that had Tiki traded me Chad for Warrick Dunn because I had Dunn very cheap and tiki is retiring. I turned around and traded Tiki to the guy who gave me Andre Johnson. Before the trades, I was starting D-Jax and a combination of Jennings, Kennison or Furrey. My problem now is that I have 3 stud WR's, so by definition, I will always be benching a "stud". Everyone says this is a good problem to have. I don't feel that way right now though.Thanks again everyone.
 
Johnson over his career vs Baltimore

3-28-0

7-110-1

4-78-1

5-130-1

2-15-0

8-99-0

10-161-2

5-91-0

5-88-1

4-32-0

How other WR have fared this year vs Baltimore

MiClayton 3-34-0

RMoss 2-32-0

Edwards 5-116-1

EParker 4-37-0

Walker 5-63-0

SSmith 8-189-1

Colston 6-163-2

Bennett 6-115-0

Jenkins 3-23-1

Ward 4-33-0

 
Ocho Conco's past performances vs. Baltimore

2006 - @ Balt. - 4 rec. 32 yds. 0 TDs

2005 - @ Balt. - 5 rec. 91 yds. 0 TDs

2005 - vs. Balt. - 5 rec. 88 yds. 1 TD

2004 - vs. Balt. - 8 rec. 99 yds. 0 TDs

2004 - @ Balt. - 10 rec. 161 yds. 2 TDs

2003 - vs. Balt. - 5 rec. 130 yds. 1 TD

2003 - @ Balt. - 2 rec. 15 yds. 0 TDs

ETA: Seems like he has some clunker games mixed in there but over the past three season, he seems to play better vs. the Ravens at home than on the road. With the road game out of the way, Ocho Cinco (if that pattern continues) should do alright on Thursday.

 
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I have CJ, Driver, Roy Wiliams, Coles, and Mark Clayton (start 2-3), and I have no doubt about starting CJ this week.

I don't think you can afford to bench him right now.

 
The_Man said:
As a Ravens homer, I would suggest you start CJ with full confidence. Samari Rolle has been getting toasted this year, and CJ and Palmer traditionally fare very well vs. the Ravens. As noted above, a team that can hit the deep ball in the face of heavy pressure can feast vs. the Ravens 46 defense.
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:yes: :goodposting: Rolle, McAlister, and Reed have all allowed big plays at times this year, but particularly rolle.

Then again, you never know when they're going to line up Adalius on him again : :football: :boxing:

 
einstein2u said:
you don't sit the number 1 WR in football.....i don't care about matchups...don't over think it.

yes.

i am a CJ owner.
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correct, you don't EVER sit AJ, THE #1 WR in football. :yes: chad johnson vs. ravens, is tough, but you dont sit him either.these teams have barnburners everytime they play, it seems!

disclaimer: aj owner

:lmao:

 
Harry Beanbag said:
Ocho Conco's past performances vs. Baltimore2006 - @ Balt. - 4 rec. 32 yds. 0 TDs2005 - @ Balt. - 5 rec. 91 yds. 0 TDs2005 - vs. Balt. - 5 rec. 88 yds. 1 TD2004 - vs. Balt. - 8 rec. 99 yds. 0 TDs2004 - @ Balt. - 10 rec. 161 yds. 2 TDs2003 - vs. Balt. - 5 rec. 130 yds. 1 TD2003 - @ Balt. - 2 rec. 15 yds. 0 TDsETA: Seems like he has some clunker games mixed in there but over the past three season, he seems to play better vs. the Ravens at home than on the road. With the road game out of the way, Ocho Cinco (if that pattern continues) should do alright on Thursday.
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Do you have Housh's stats handy? I seem to recall him having some monster games vs. Balt.
 
To paraphrase Mark Wimer from his Passing Matchups report:

"Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Chad Johnson is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at WR."

Start CJ. If you're going to lose, lose with your best. Don't get beat beacuse the hottest WR in the league put up 12/190/2 on your bench while the guy you start goes for 4/39/0.

eta: housh's stats

2002 2/19/0; 4/35/1

2004 7/116/0; 10/171/1

2005 5/61/0; 9/147/1

2006 3/66/1

 
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Combined results per season... (i.e. 2 games for '02/'03/'04/'05 - 1 game for '06)

Code: 
Chad Johnson--------2006--4--32-0Chris Henry---------2006--2--79-0T.J. Houshmandzadeh-2006--3--66-1Chad Johnson--------2005-10-179-1Chris Henry---------2005--6--70-2T.J. Houshmandzadeh-2005-14-208-1Chad Johnson--------2004-18-260-2T.J. Houshmandzadeh-2004-17-287-1Chad Johnson--------2003--7-145-1Chad Johnson--------2002-11-188-2T.J. Houshmandzadeh-2002--6--54-1
 
I always get burned when I try to play matchups. Sure, CJ could get zero, but you'll be kicking yourself for benching him if he goes off. I actually benched Reggie Wayne when Indy played the vaunted DEN D who had been shutting teams down. Watching him get 3 TDs from my bench wasn't fun. Trying to just play my best players regardless of matchups.

Yes, Balt will key in on CJ. They are a good unit, but crazy things happen in the NFL. As mentioned, CJ is crazy hot right now. Something like 600 yards in the last 3 games?

Also reminds me of a guy in one league last year who benched LT in our league championship because he had been nicked up and might of not gotten the full load. LT had a big game and the dude lost with LT on his bench. He still cries about that one.

 
I've been relying on this page the last couple of days to determine my WR/TE starters:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php

A couple of things to note about the Baltimore D this year:

- the opposing #1 WR does 3.2% better than average

- the opposing #2 WR does 29.2% worse than average

Granted earlier in the year it was hard to tell who was the #1 in Cincy, but lately there's no doubt.

That link ^ is a great one for helping decide which WRs to start, but you still have to always start your studs.

 
Bwanna said:
I've been relying on this page the last couple of days to determine my WR/TE starters:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php

A couple of things to note about the Baltimore D this year:

- the opposing #1 WR does 3.2% better than average

- the opposing #2 WR does 29.2% worse than average

Granted earlier in the year it was hard to tell who was the #1 in Cincy, but lately there's no doubt.

That link ^ is a great one for helping decide which WRs to start, but you still have to always start your studs.
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Thanks for the website! Great info.
 
I have Wayne, Chad Johnson, Boldin, and Driver in one league where we start 3 WRs. I can live with the Baltimore matchup, but if the weather becomes an issue I think I'll go with my other options rather than betting against Baltimore's Defense AND the weather.

Just my take. It's certainly difficult to bench a guy like Chad Johnson, regardless of what is on your bench.

 
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Disregarding the weather I would sit Darrell Jackson of these 3. He's the lowest-scoring of the 3 on the year I would think in most scoring systems, and he's going against Denver - and presumably much of the time - Champ Bailey. Now this doesn't mean Jackson couldn't go off too - but if he's your 3rd best and he doesn't have a good matchup - that says bench to me.

Now - I don't know just how bad the weather is - and I don't have info on how much rain actually affects WRs fantasy scoring. So if the weather is really bad and there's evidence that heavy rain = lower WR scoring by a significant margin (I assume it does to some degree) - then you might bench him.

 
I would say the weather benefits the receiver due to the fact that they know the route they are running and the DB's may give a little extra cushion.

Weather forcast looks bad: Gametime Weather

 
Wind is what worries me, but from that it doesn't seem to bad. Still, I would feel more comfortable if it was a nice clear night.

 
Silver & Black said:
Hoping for a lot of points is different from trying to accurately forecast what will actually happen. Which is the core of my problem.I have a very solid option if I don't start Chad so I am looking for opinions about how Chad will do against a very tough Baltimore defense, not what we are hoping he will do.
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Ravens will shut down the run. Carson will throw 40 times. Chad will get 8 of those. Don't sit your studs! It is a lot easier to take if you start your studs and they have a poor game then it is to sit them and see them go off. FWIW.
 
DawgStyle said:
Silver & Black said:
Hoping for a lot of points is different from trying to accurately forecast what will actually happen. Which is the core of my problem.I have a very solid option if I don't start Chad so I am looking for opinions about how Chad will do against a very tough Baltimore defense, not what we are hoping he will do.
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Ravens will shut down the run. Carson will throw 40 times. Chad will get 8 of those. Don't sit your studs! It is a lot easier to take if you start your studs and they have a poor game then it is to sit them and see them go off. FWIW.
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i am seriously thinking of CJ for lee evans....looks like it is going to be a messy game tonight.
 
CJ did squat in my lineup for the first several weeks of the year. I'm not gonna sit him when he's going off like he is now.

Three weeks ago, he wasn't in the top 30 WR list in my league. Now he's #1.

No way he sits...he's needed and in a big way. I have two games left and need to win both to make the playoffs thanks to his stinker performance the first half of the year. It's redemption time, #85...

 
I drowned early thanks to good old Ocho Cinco :bag: & now, I can guarantee a spot in the play-offs with a win this week :yes: ! My late season charge definitely has something to do with Ocho getting the points every week that I had anticipated. I road him when he was bad and I have enjoyed him while he has been great! If I go down, I'm going down with Ocho in my line-up. I didnt use that 2nd rounder to sit the pine in a crucial week 13 game.

Lets Rock!!! :football:

 
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One other thing.....

The Bengals need this win a lot more than any of us need it! If he doesn't come through, it won't be because he didn't try!

 
Over-coaching is what kills sharks who feel they HAVE TO DO SOMETHING with all their knowledge. We think: "What good are these reams of statistics I've compiled if I don't do anything with them?" Meanwhile, the casual player never even considers matchups and so doesn't miss out on those big games against top defenses that have us fantasy wonks thinking, "Geez, what idiot would play someone against that defense when they have so-and-so on their bench who is going against Holy Cross High School's J.V. squad?"

So yeah, of course I'd bench C.J.

 
Silver & Black said:
It's the last week of the regular season in my league and I need a win (coupled with another's loss) to win my division so every coaching decision counts now.I know Ocho Cinco is playing lights out right now, but the Ravens D has been playing flat out awesome lately as well. The game is a thursday night special, and we all know how much CJ loves the spotlight.As of right now, I am very much leaning towards sitting him down but am afraid he will have a monster game if I do. Any thoughts about how you think Chad will perform on Thursday?Thanks
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In other words your asking who should I start and you got a member #517 ???PLAY YOUR STUDS.... :banned:
 
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