Chris Johnson in the 5th Round? (1 Viewer)

[Eminence]

That's a lack of love for a guy who finished as the 9th highest scoring Running Back last season. If Chris Johnson falls to the 5th in any league I play in, I'm going to snatch him up right quick. I think the guy can play at a high level for 1 - 2 more seasons. It wouldn't be the first time we've seen a Running Back move to a new team and revitalize his career. If anything, the first year of a new team the players seem extra motivated.

1.) Randy Moss in New England.
2.) Jamal Lewis in Cleveland.
3.) Michael Vick in Philadelphia.

If my sources are accurate, he's being taken 4 picks after Frank Gore and 2 picks before Trent Richardson.

 

[12punch]

he had 279 carries last year and averaged 298 over the last 5 years.

how many carries do you project this year?

that said, I think he might get a ton of targets with mohrningweg,

 

[3quinox]

Better offensive line, committed to the run. If he does split carries with ivory I think he still gets the lions share and it might even keep him fresh. His torn meniscus is also repaired (even though he still ran for more than 1K with it). I'm optimistic, esp in PPR leagues.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Ivory and Powell combined for over 1,500 rushing yards last year, and I see them running it a lot again this year, so if Johnson gets the lion's share of the carries, 900-1,000 rushing yards is attainable, and I suspect he'll get more designed plays called for him in the passing game than he did in Tennessee last year.

 

[bostonfred]

He's the center piece of the offense. He's going to be a stud this year.

 

[Rubi]

Just got him in a 12 team re-draft PPR at 5-3,he'll be RB2 to M. Forte.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

He's the center piece of the offense. He's going to be a stud this year.

Stud is a strong word.

 

[12punch]

I'm a chris johnson hater who's trying to talk myself into him this year, so I'm assuming we're suspending the age thing in this thread as it looks like he'll be 29?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

He's the center piece of the offense. He's going to be a stud this year.

Ivory and Powell combined scored roughly equal to what Chris Johnson did last year on his own, and it took them close to 400 touches to do it. The Jets' offense should certainly be better, but OTOH, Johnson certainly isn't going to get all of those 400 touches. Expecting more than Johnson did last year FF-wise seems like a stretch to me. If by "stud" you actually mean "low end RB1 ceiling" then I agree. Otherwise not so much.

 

[jurb26]

He's the center piece of the offense. He's going to be a stud this year.

Ivory and Powell combined scored roughly equal to what Chris Johnson did last year on his own, and it took them close to 400 touches to do it. The Jets' offense should certainly be better, but OTOH, Johnson certainly isn't going to get all of those 400 touches. Expecting more than Johnson did last year FF-wise seems like a stretch to me. If by "stud" you actually mean "low end RB1 ceiling" then I agree. Otherwise not so much.

Yeah, because Ivory and Powell combined for 38/282/0 in the passing game while Johnson accounted for 42/345/4. Do you expect the NYJ to not use Johnson in the passing game? That's really what matters here.

 

[bostonfred]

He's the center piece of the offense. He's going to be a stud this year.

Ivory and Powell combined scored roughly equal to what Chris Johnson did last year on his own, and it took them close to 400 touches to do it. The Jets' offense should certainly be better, but OTOH, Johnson certainly isn't going to get all of those 400 touches. Expecting more than Johnson did last year FF-wise seems like a stretch to me. If by "stud" you actually mean "low end RB1 ceiling" then I agree. Otherwise not so much.

I think that's fair. By stud I mean low end rb1. I don't understand him going in the fifth but that's a nice arbitrage situation while I stock up at other positions.

 

[Ghost Rider]

He's the center piece of the offense. He's going to be a stud this year.

Ivory and Powell combined scored roughly equal to what Chris Johnson did last year on his own, and it took them close to 400 touches to do it. The Jets' offense should certainly be better, but OTOH, Johnson certainly isn't going to get all of those 400 touches. Expecting more than Johnson did last year FF-wise seems like a stretch to me. If by "stud" you actually mean "low end RB1 ceiling" then I agree. Otherwise not so much.

Yeah, because Ivory and Powell combined for 38/282/0 in the passing game while Johnson accounted for 42/345/4. Do you expect the NYJ to not use Johnson in the passing game? That's really what matters here.

I think Johnson and Powell will get most of the RB receptions, with the split probably being pretty even, while Ivory and Johnson get most of the rushing touches. I think there will be weeks where Ivory is the main guy and more weeks where CJ is the main guy, so like last year, a Johnson owner will have to live with some bad weeks, but considering the price should be much lower than it was last year, owners won't have to rely on him as their RB1 or high end RB2.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

He's the center piece of the offense. He's going to be a stud this year.

Ivory and Powell combined scored roughly equal to what Chris Johnson did last year on his own, and it took them close to 400 touches to do it. The Jets' offense should certainly be better, but OTOH, Johnson certainly isn't going to get all of those 400 touches. Expecting more than Johnson did last year FF-wise seems like a stretch to me. If by "stud" you actually mean "low end RB1 ceiling" then I agree. Otherwise not so much.

Yeah, because Ivory and Powell combined for 38/282/0 in the passing game while Johnson accounted for 42/345/4. Do you expect the NYJ to not use Johnson in the passing game? That's really what matters here.

I definitely wouldn't expect 4 receiving TDs out of him again. That's a clear outlier.

I still expect to draft Johnson and get value -- he's going at RB24 and as I said earlier, I expect a RB10 - RB15 finish.

 

[Da Gildz]

Averaged 3.9 ypc last yr after a billion carries. Now playing with a crappier QB then Locker which is hard to believe and a lesser O-Line to boot. Add in the fact he won't sniff the # of touches he's had the last 3 yrs either. I'm not touching him before the 5th rd. Actually think that value is spot on. He'll have his moments but expecting him to reach rb 10-15 status is wishful thinking. I think he's best served as a flex this yr. I'd rather leave the party early then come after the keg is kicked. CJ.7K.

 

[Bri]

he's a difficult RB to own in FF. His success is based upon a few broken plays by a D, not whether they are good or bad. He's very hard to predict and offers more frustration than other high level RBs.

 

[Sarnoff]

Too much dancing behind the line. Not the man he used to be. Marginal value in the 5th.

 

[nirad3]

Averaged 3.9 ypc last yr after a billion carries. Now playing with a crappier QB then Locker which is hard to believe and a lesser O-Line to boot. Add in the fact he won't sniff the # of touches he's had the last 3 yrs either. I'm not touching him before the 5th rd. Actually think that value is spot on. He'll have his moments but expecting him to reach rb 10-15 status is wishful thinking. I think he's best served as a flex this yr. I'd rather leave the party early then come after the keg is kicked. CJ.7K.

Not sure if NYJ's OL is that much worse than TEN's. And if we're throwing in boots, not sure Jake Locker's any better than Vick/Smith.

And I think those saying he reaches RB10-15 are saying that's his ultimate ceiling, which is kinda like saying "wishful thinking".... sooo not sure what your point is here.

 

[Mario Kart]

Is this the, "Drafting with Guppies Thread 3.0" this year? I'm not sure so this is purely a question. I need that thread to be made so I can laugh at something.

 

[Da Gildz]

Averaged 3.9 ypc last yr after a billion carries. Now playing with a crappier QB then Locker which is hard to believe and a lesser O-Line to boot. Add in the fact he won't sniff the # of touches he's had the last 3 yrs either. I'm not touching him before the 5th rd. Actually think that value is spot on. He'll have his moments but expecting him to reach rb 10-15 status is wishful thinking. I think he's best served as a flex this yr. I'd rather leave the party early then come after the keg is kicked. CJ.7K.

Not sure if NYJ's OL is that much worse than TEN's. And if we're throwing in boots, not sure Jake Locker's any better than Vick/Smith.

And I think those saying he reaches RB10-15 are saying that's his ultimate ceiling, which is kinda like saying "wishful thinking".... sooo not sure what your point is here.

Did u even read the post above mine? He's 'expecting' a 10-15 finish. What the...

 

[pantherclub]

This is a nice informative thread. Lots of good perspective about a player. One of the reasons I love this board this time of year.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

1300 total YFS and 7 TDs would get him to about RB15. He's still a significantly better RB than Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell, and IMO playing through a torn meniscus likely had a significant impact last year. Johnson also seems to be the type of player who will be motivated by the events of this offseason, although that is a total guess.

 

[bostonfred]

Here's a few reasons for liking chris johnson:

He is the number one playmaker on offense. If they are going to put in an offensive game plan this week, who do you think they're talking about getting the ball to?

He benefits from having a mobile qb. Vick or geno, they have to give some consideration to the qb, which keeps one of the defenders out of position, and its harder for them to recoever against a fast back.

He's the best running back on the team, but they have already said they want to keep him fresh. To me, that means using ivory and powell on shorter yardage stuff and using chris in more plus situations, which should be very good for his ypc. Not only did he have a meniscus injury last year, he was asked to do more of his own crap runs because greene was hurt.

He is also one of the best receivers on the team. I think he flirtswith 50+ receptions, because who else?

I think mohrninweg and co are talking up the future hall of famer angle, and he's going to be a bit rejuvenated headed to a new team that's talking him up as a superstar after his last team dicked with him. With a 2000 yard season and never less than 1000 yards a season, he has a legit shot at getting hall of fame votes, but he would need to finish very, very strong. I don't know if he still can make a run, but I think the knock on cj2k since he got paid has been that the motivation wasn't there, and I think the motivation will be there this year.

The schedule is average, maybe a little softer than average.

There is no reason for them not to run him into the ground if they're fighting for a playoff spot late in the season.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

The biggest overlooked plus for Chris Johnson is his remarkable durability. He's suited up and played 80 games in a row -- that's ridiculous for any RB, much less one < 200 pounds. Nobody is immune to major injury, obviously, but Johnson will play through the bumps, bruises, and strains which sideline many RBs for a game or two every year.

 

[Da Gildz]

1300 total YFS and 7 TDs would get him to about RB15. He's still a significantly better RB than Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell, and IMO playing through a torn meniscus likely had a significant impact last year. Johnson also seems to be the type of player who will be motivated by the events of this offseason, although that is a total guess.

Yea I don't see 1300 total yds, that's where we differ. Ivory while nothing special, is still a capable runner on early downs. He rushed for a 4.6 ypc over 180+ carries last yr. Shonn Greene by comparison got 77 carries, at 3.8 ypc and was never a real threat to take touches. The volume just wont be there this year. I do agree CJ will be a big part of the passing game, I would guess he'll catch 40-50 balls with ease.

I could see ~ 220 carries with 40+ rec's, 5-7 scores. He wont sniff the goal line either, which doesn't change much really. 1,300 total/7 would be his ceiling in my eyes. So a 5th rd value on a guy who's ceiling is 15th ranked RB? Seems about right to me.

 

[bostonfred]

1300 total YFS and 7 TDs would get him to about RB15. He's still a significantly better RB than Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell, and IMO playing through a torn meniscus likely had a significant impact last year. Johnson also seems to be the type of player who will be motivated by the events of this offseason, although that is a total guess.

Yea I don't see 1300 total yds, that's where we differ. Ivory while nothing special, is still a capable runner on early downs. He rushed for a 4.6 ypc over 180+ carries last yr. Shonn Greene by comparison got 77 carries, at 3.8 ypc and was never a real threat to take touches. The volume just wont be there this year. I do agree CJ will be a big part of the passing game, I would guess he'll catch 40-50 balls with ease.

I could see ~ 220 carries with 40+ rec's, 5-7 scores. He wont sniff the goal line either, which doesn't change much really. 1,300 total/7 would be his ceiling in my eyes. So a 5th rd value on a guy who's ceiling is 15th ranked RB? Seems about right to me.

This seems like a reasonable projection. Do you see him doing significantly worse than this (barring injury)?

 

[Leonidas]

In mocks I've been taking him in the 5th as my RB2 like clockwork. There aren't many second or third round ADP RB's I like...it's nice to stack WR's and back into Johnson in the 5th.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Ivory and Powell combined for 358 carries last year -- I personally don't think the Jets brought in Johnson to put in an equal rotation with two lesser RBs. I see maybe a 250 / 100 carry split between Johnson and Ivory personally, with potential for more for both / either if the Jets' offense improves with the players they added this offseason. Ivory is useless as a receiver, so I expect Johnson to catch somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 passes. Obviously I think Powell is relegated into a pure backup role moving forward.

The TDs are tougher to predict, and Powell / Ivory combined for only 4 last year, but Geno Smith had 6, and again, I do expect some improvement in the offense as a whole, so something like 5-6 rushing scores and 1-2 receiving seems reasonable for Chris Johnson given I think he's going to receive the majority of the touches in the NY backfield.

Bottom line is I think Chris Johnson is an underrated RB, and Chris Ivory has been perennially overrated by the FF community. Johnson isn't the player he was back in 2009 anymore, clearly. But IMO he's still plenty good enough to command a clear majority of touches in a competition with the likes of Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell. Nor do I think the Jets would bring in a guy who has been a high maintenence malcontent at times with the intention of NOT giving him the lead role.

 

[Reaper]

In mocks I've been taking him in the 5th as my RB2 like clockwork. There aren't many second or third round ADP RB's I like...it's nice to stack WR's and back into Johnson in the 5th.

Been getting him in the 6th in FFPC Drafts and his ADP is early 6th in MFL10 drafts.....

I like this thread better when it's "Wait for Chris Johnson in the 6th"

 

[bagger]

Chris Johnson may lead the team in receptions.

He's amazing value in the 5th.

You get a top 15 RB (essentially 2nd round value) in the 5th? Yes please.

 

[Da Gildz]

Chris Johnson may lead the team in receptions.

He's amazing value in the 5th.

You get a top 15 RB (essentially 2nd round value) in the 5th? Yes please.

Amazing value? What is going on here haha. This isn't 2011.

He averaged 3.9 ypc behind a quality O-Line. Even in 2012, he had a couple monster games that completely skew how poorly he ran the ball. Take those '2' games away, not really that much, he averaged 3.74 ypc over 240+ carries. Hate to be a downer for all the 5th round Chris J cheerleaders but come on, he'll be 29 in September and is probably 31-32 in real rb yrs. You're all missing the major point here, he finished that high in recent yrs due to the VOLUME of touches. If u think he's coming close to that # of touches, by all means, great value in the 5th. I for one, think he'll be the leader in a 60/40 time share. Compared to his 85/15 Shonn Green partnership in tennesse.

He also signed for 2 yrs with 3 mill of 8, guaranteed. Not sure if you guys realize this but the Jets had no plans of him being a workhorse here. He'll rotate all early down work with Ivory and play on 3rd downs and be a big part of their passing game. That's his role with the Jets in 2014.

 

[Da Gildz]

Interestingly enough, rotoworld's most recent blurb is pretty much echoing my thoughts...

ESPN New York expects the Jets to take a backfield-by-committee approach.
The only one surprised by this take is Chris Johnson, who still seems to be under the assumption he's an every-down workhorse. Running backs coach Anthony Lynn has already stated that Johnson's load will be monitored, an effort to keep a 29-year-old (in September) with 2,014 career touches fresh. Chris Ivory and possibly Bilal Powell will have chances to seize a hot hand, leaving CJ?K with far less volume than he saw in Tennessee. Jul 14 - 8:42 AM

 

[jurb26]

Interestingly enough, rotoworld's most recent blurb is pretty much echoing my thoughts...

ESPN New York expects the Jets to take a backfield-by-committee approach.

The only one surprised by this take is Chris Johnson, who still seems to be under the assumption he's an every-down workhorse. Running backs coach Anthony Lynn has already stated that Johnson's load will be monitored, an effort to keep a 29-year-old (in September) with 2,014 career touches fresh. Chris Ivory and possibly Bilal Powell will have chances to seize a hot hand, leaving CJ?K with far less volume than he saw in Tennessee. Jul 14 - 8:42 AM

Funny they aren't mentioning his knee surgery anywhere in that blurb. His recovery is one of the main reasons NYJ are keeping a tight watch on Johnson.

 

[bostonfred]

You're all missing the major point here, he finished that high in recent yrs due to the VOLUME of touches. If u think he's coming close to that # of touches, by all means, great value in the 5th. I for one, think he'll be the leader in a 60/40 time share. Compared to his 85/15 Shonn Green partnership in tennesse.

Johnson had 60.3% of the carries for the titans last year with 279 of their 462 attempts. The previous years he has 276 and 262 rush attempts. He had 57, 36 and most recently, 42 receptions in that span.

The jets have had more attempts over the past three years as a team, with 443, 494 and most recently 493. If that holds true he could get a smaller percentage of the carries and still get more than he did in tennessee.

If they do reduce his carries, they certainly wont take the third and longs away from him and leave him with the first and goal on the 1s. So a reduction in carries could actually lead to a higher yards per carry. That, and a healthy miniscus.

Overall, there's reason to believe that his carries will stay relatively the same and his efficiency will increase. Theres also every reason to believe that he will be the primary receiving back in an offense that desperately needs guys who can catch the ball.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Johnson's 42 catches last year are shocking when you consider that they rarely called passing plays for him early on. Hell, that long TD catch against the Chiefs was a totally broken play where the QB finally just dumped it to Johnson, who made some moves and broke it for a long score. Same thing for the long TD against the 49ers, I think. I think the Jets will find a way to call more designed pass plays for him, while not feeding him the ball as much in the running game (I don't think he'll have 20+ carries a game as much as last year, when he had six games like that).

 

[Da Gildz]

You're all missing the major point here, he finished that high in recent yrs due to the VOLUME of touches. If u think he's coming close to that # of touches, by all means, great value in the 5th. I for one, think he'll be the leader in a 60/40 time share. Compared to his 85/15 Shonn Green partnership in tennesse.

Johnson had 60.3% of the carries for the titans last year with 279 of their 462 attempts. The previous years he has 276 and 262 rush attempts. He had 57, 36 and most recently, 42 receptions in that span.

The jets have had more attempts over the past three years as a team, with 443, 494 and most recently 493. If that holds true he could get a smaller percentage of the carries and still get more than he did in tennessee.

If they do reduce his carries, they certainly wont take the third and longs away from him and leave him with the first and goal on the 1s. So a reduction in carries could actually lead to a higher yards per carry. That, and a healthy miniscus.

Overall, there's reason to believe that his carries will stay relatively the same and his efficiency will increase. Theres also every reason to believe that he will be the primary receiving back in an offense that desperately needs guys who can catch the ball.

The primary reasons behind those totals....Bad qb play, bad O-Line play and ZERO playmaking WR's/TE's. The Jets have been a terrible, horrific offense for a couple yrs. I agree they added some nice pieces this offseason and will 100% be an improved offense. How can they not be right. In turn, those rushing attempts will go down, as they have some semblance of a throwing offense. That would only make sense. And I also agree Chris J will be a legit option in the passing game, although Powell is a solid receiving back, albeit that's about all he can do.

It comes down to sharing the rock with Ivory. Which he will do. That's where I and the Chris J fist pumpers differ I think. He's not getting 280 carries this year. I would be stunned. Really think that # is closer to 200-220. So for him to meet these lofty expectations, he either needs to be more efficient running it and by a wide margin or get near the volume of touches he's gotten in the past. I don't think either of those 2 happen.

Again, im not suggesting he'll be a bad fantasy option, im merely suggesting 5th rd value is appropriate for what his role will be and the player he is now.

 

[Nok12me]

I can think of 20 other backs I'd rather have than CJnoK next year. To me he is a flyer after other more dependable are already secured. I think his only chance is to get pissed off or motivated enough to prove everyone wrong type situation, but here in Nashville all I saw was a player punching the clock, with what certainly appeared to be little motivation and no self awareness to his own responsibility to accomplish success, preferring to point blamie everywhere else for him not living up to the self entitled nick name.

 

[Reaper]

I can think of 20 other backs I'd rather have than CJnoK next year.

SWEET!!!!!

He's currently the 26th ADP ranked RB for PPR and you can target him near the 6th round~!!!!!!

You agree with the far majority of ppl so far

Me too.... He's in my tier of 6th round backs I grab when value at other positions lands in my lap and I'm a bit desperate to grab some RB's....

 

[jurb26]

I can think of 20 other backs I'd rather have than CJnoK next year. To me he is a flyer after other more dependable are already secured. I think his only chance is to get pissed off or motivated enough to prove everyone wrong type situation, but here in Nashville all I saw was a player punching the clock, with what certainly appeared to be little motivation and no self awareness to his own responsibility to accomplish success, preferring to point blamie everywhere else for him not living up to the self entitled nick name.

You sound bitter. Good to know.

 

[Captain Hook]

Chris Johnson may lead the team in receptions.

He's amazing value in the 5th.

You get a top 15 RB (essentially 2nd round value) in the 5th? Yes please.

How the hedoublehockeysticks do you figure top 15 RB?

List your top 14, Johnson and the next 10

For PPR FBG has him projected as RB21 and I think that is generous

 

[bostonfred]

Chris Johnson may lead the team in receptions.

He's amazing value in the 5th.

You get a top 15 RB (essentially 2nd round value) in the 5th? Yes please.

How the hedoublehockeysticks do you figure top 15 RB?List your top 14, Johnson and the next 10

For PPR FBG has him projected as RB21 and I think that is generous

He was top ten last year. 15 doesn't seem that generous to me unless you're a big ivory fan.Heres ten guys who should be rb1s barring injury or other bustitude:

Mccoy charles peterson forte lacy Lynch ball foster murray bell

After that, things get dicey. Morris with gruden could be a beast or he could suck because they go full committee. In non ppr, I still like him because of the tds.Bernard is more talented, but may be in a timeshare again and with a better td scorer. I like him, but im afraid to like him like him. Doug martin has a bunch of red flags, and people are talking time share with him.

Zac stacy was a volume guy and the rams added a good back in the draft. Andre ellington? As a lead back? I see the opportunity, but he also added weight which could hurt his speed, but if he didn't, he was too small to carry the load. color me nervous. Cj spiller? if healthy, he should be splitting time with more guys than usual. Sweet.

Reggie bush lost the good half of his job last year, and now he's back to being the injury guy. Speaking of injury guys with half a job, there's ryan mathews. Apparently the ff community has totally forgiven him after a good year.

Gerhart is totally unestablished and playing on a bad offense but he could be good if he gets a shot. Sankeys equally unestablished, but at least hes a rookie. Rashad jennings is a 29 year old back on a new team with a bundle of running backs, a coach who likes thunder and lightning committees, and an injury and suck history of his own. He looked awesome for two months, but during those same exact two months, cj2k outscored him. Frank gore? Maybe during september and october. vereen? In ppr, sure, if you can hack the injury history. In non ppr no way. Trent richardson? Ray rice? Nope.

So while I can't speak for bagger, I think I can just say take those top ten guys, then pick five of the next bunch of guys and decide which blemishes bug you less than chris johnson changing teams. For me, I think he outscores quite a few of those guys. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see him back in the top ten this year. I don't like a lot of the guys in that muddled middle this year. There's lots of committees and guys taking on roles they've never had for a full season.

 

[Leonidas]

He was top ten last year.

I think this is worth repeating. A lot of people don't seem to be understanding this fact. (not just here, but everywhere)

When I took him as my RB2 in a big crap-talking league last year everybody laughed and called him cj0k.

Then won more games than anybody else.

Those same people are writing him off as like RB30 again this year and tell me my mock wasn't very good when I have him as my RB2.

When will people learn?

 

[bostonfred]

I don't know why, but when I read your username I always read it to the tune of the song reunited.

Leonidas and it feels so good.

can't tell you why. Just feels good to get that off my chest.

 

[pantherclub]

He was top ten last year.

I think this is worth repeating. A lot of people don't seem to be understanding this fact. (not just here, but everywhere)

When I took him as my RB2 in a big crap-talking league last year everybody laughed and called him cj0k.

Then won more games than anybody else.

Those same people are writing him off as like RB30 again this year and tell me my mock wasn't very good when I have him as my RB2.

When will people learn?

What round did you get him in?

 

[Shutout]

He probably will generally disappoint his owners. As always, his numbers deceive. People will pump him up based on his ranking, citing that he was #9 or so at RB but it's not the type of ranking you can rely on.

Seven of his games yielded in 9 points or less, which is typical for him: he either gets you 7 or 27 it seems and then people see the end number and think that's rb1 material when what it really is, is a death sentence and a weekly aggravation.

If you can get him as a flex or rb2/3 (and you can't), then he would be hands down one of the most perfect RBs in fantasy because he is as durable as they come and he can knock those home runs and win weeks for you.

But when you draft him as your every week guy, you die a miserable death on the 6.4 weeks that literally occur half the time.

Yeah, he was #9 in my league last year. Adrian Peterson was #10, and guys like gore, bell and Matthews were even farther down. But I wouldn't draft Johnson in New York over any of those guys. Not because of what he can do on a given week but because it's a 13 week season in my leagues and those two-three weeks he gets 28 points won't cover those seven that he gets 6-9.

 

[Sarnoff]

In mocks I've been taking him in the 5th as my RB2 like clockwork. There aren't many second or third round ADP RB's I like...it's nice to stack WR's and back into Johnson in the 5th.

I'd be scared of him as my RB2. Would much prefer him as RB3/Flex.

 

[rdrouyn]

He probably will generally disappoint his owners. As always, his numbers deceive. People will pump him up based on his ranking, citing that he was #9 or so at RB but it's not the type of ranking you can rely on.

Seven of his games yielded in 9 points or less, which is typical for him: he either gets you 7 or 27 it seems and then people see the end number and think that's rb1 material when what it really is, is a death sentence and a weekly aggravation.

If you can get him as a flex or rb2/3 (and you can't), then he would be hands down one of the most perfect RBs in fantasy because he is as durable as they come and he can knock those home runs and win weeks for you.

But when you draft him as your every week guy, you die a miserable death on the 6.4 weeks that literally occur half the time.

Yeah, he was #9 in my league last year. Adrian Peterson was #10, and guys like gore, bell and Matthews were even farther down. But I wouldn't draft Johnson in New York over any of those guys. Not because of what he can do on a given week but because it's a 13 week season in my leagues and those two-three weeks he gets 28 points won't cover those seven that he gets 6-9.

This. ^

Also anyone predicting more than 230 carries is insane. Ivory isnt exactly a scrub, just injury prone. The coaches are saying they are going to limit his carries, usually coaches overpromise carries to players. Low RB2 with upside for me.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

He probably will generally disappoint his owners. As always, his numbers deceive. People will pump him up based on his ranking, citing that he was #9 or so at RB but it's not the type of ranking you can rely on.

Seven of his games yielded in 9 points or less, which is typical for him: he either gets you 7 or 27 it seems and then people see the end number and think that's rb1 material when what it really is, is a death sentence and a weekly aggravation.

If you can get him as a flex or rb2/3 (and you can't), then he would be hands down one of the most perfect RBs in fantasy because he is as durable as they come and he can knock those home runs and win weeks for you.

But when you draft him as your every week guy, you die a miserable death on the 6.4 weeks that literally occur half the time.

Yeah, he was #9 in my league last year. Adrian Peterson was #10, and guys like gore, bell and Matthews were even farther down. But I wouldn't draft Johnson in New York over any of those guys. Not because of what he can do on a given week but because it's a 13 week season in my leagues and those two-three weeks he gets 28 points won't cover those seven that he gets 6-9.

This. ^Also anyone predicting more than 230 carries is insane. Ivory isnt exactly a scrub, just injury prone. The coaches are saying they are going to limit his carries, usually coaches overpromise carries to players. Low RB2 with upside for me.

Bilal Powell absolutely IS a total scrub and got 176 carries and 36 catches last year, with Ivory only missing one game. Johnson wasn't brought in to NOT play a much more significant role than Bilal effing Powell.

 

[12punch]

yeah, you can see what they thought of powell when ivory took over halfway through the year and relegated him to a passing back role, but what I see a lot of in this thread is comparing chris johnson 2014 to chris johnson 2013 and projecting the 2014 jets offense off the 2013 jets offense.

marty mornhinweg gets very little mention in all this, and he coached neither chris johnson in 2013 nor the jets offense that year.

I don't have a clue how many carries chris johnson will get, but if you think he's any better than bilal powell he could be looking at a fortesque 80-100 targets in that offense.

I don't think the calls for 40 catches are even sniffing his potential in that scheme.

 

[Da Gildz]

yeah, you can see what they thought of powell when ivory took over halfway through the year and relegated him to a passing back role, but what I see a lot of in this thread is comparing chris johnson 2014 to chris johnson 2013 and projecting the 2014 jets offense off the 2013 jets offense.

marty mornhinweg gets very little mention in all this, and he coached neither chris johnson in 2013 nor the jets offense that year.

I don't have a clue how many carries chris johnson will get, but if you think he's any better than bilal powell he could be looking at a fortesque 80-100 targets in that offense.

I don't think the calls for 40 catches are even sniffing his potential in that scheme.

80-100 targets? Wha wha what?? Marty doesnt have Brian Westbrook and McCoy playing in their prime here..

 

[12punch]

yeah, you can see what they thought of powell when ivory took over halfway through the year and relegated him to a passing back role, but what I see a lot of in this thread is comparing chris johnson 2014 to chris johnson 2013 and projecting the 2014 jets offense off the 2013 jets offense.

marty mornhinweg gets very little mention in all this, and he coached neither chris johnson in 2013 nor the jets offense that year.

I don't have a clue how many carries chris johnson will get, but if you think he's any better than bilal powell he could be looking at a fortesque 80-100 targets in that offense.

I don't think the calls for 40 catches are even sniffing his potential in that scheme.

80-100 targets? Wha wha what?? Marty doesnt have Brian Westbrook and McCoy playing in their prime here..

MARK IT DOWN !!!!!