Chris Johnson in the 5th Round? (1 Viewer)

[nirad3]

Averaged 3.9 ypc last yr after a billion carries. Now playing with a crappier QB then Locker which is hard to believe and a lesser O-Line to boot. Add in the fact he won't sniff the # of touches he's had the last 3 yrs either. I'm not touching him before the 5th rd. Actually think that value is spot on. He'll have his moments but expecting him to reach rb 10-15 status is wishful thinking. I think he's best served as a flex this yr. I'd rather leave the party early then come after the keg is kicked. CJ.7K.

Not sure if NYJ's OL is that much worse than TEN's. And if we're throwing in boots, not sure Jake Locker's any better than Vick/Smith.

And I think those saying he reaches RB10-15 are saying that's his ultimate ceiling, which is kinda like saying "wishful thinking".... sooo not sure what your point is here.

Did u even read the post above mine? He's 'expecting' a 10-15 finish. What the...

Uh... I was referring to the other posts in this thread that suggested that a top 10-15 finish would be his ceiling. If you were directly responding to ONE post, I suggest you utilize the "quote" feature. You're welcome.

 

[nirad3]

Chris Johnson may lead the team in receptions.

He's amazing value in the 5th.

You get a top 15 RB (essentially 2nd round value) in the 5th? Yes please.

Amazing value? What is going on here haha. This isn't 2011.

He averaged 3.9 ypc behind a quality O-Line. Even in 2012, he had a couple monster games that completely skew how poorly he ran the ball. Take those '2' games away, not really that much, he averaged 3.74 ypc over 240+ carries. Hate to be a downer for all the 5th round Chris J cheerleaders but come on, he'll be 29 in September and is probably 31-32 in real rb yrs. You're all missing the major point here, he finished that high in recent yrs due to the VOLUME of touches. If u think he's coming close to that # of touches, by all means, great value in the 5th. I for one, think he'll be the leader in a 60/40 time share. Compared to his 85/15 Shonn Green partnership in tennesse.

He also signed for 2 yrs with 3 mill of 8, guaranteed. Not sure if you guys realize this but the Jets had no plans of him being a workhorse here. He'll rotate all early down work with Ivory and play on 3rd downs and be a big part of their passing game. That's his role with the Jets in 2014.

Oh, the good 'ol "take those two games away" BS.

 

[jurb26]

Chris Johnson may lead the team in receptions.

He's amazing value in the 5th.

You get a top 15 RB (essentially 2nd round value) in the 5th? Yes please.

Amazing value? What is going on here haha. This isn't 2011.

He averaged 3.9 ypc behind a quality O-Line. Even in 2012, he had a couple monster games that completely skew how poorly he ran the ball. Take those '2' games away, not really that much, he averaged 3.74 ypc over 240+ carries. Hate to be a downer for all the 5th round Chris J cheerleaders but come on, he'll be 29 in September and is probably 31-32 in real rb yrs. You're all missing the major point here, he finished that high in recent yrs due to the VOLUME of touches. If u think he's coming close to that # of touches, by all means, great value in the 5th. I for one, think he'll be the leader in a 60/40 time share. Compared to his 85/15 Shonn Green partnership in tennesse.

He also signed for 2 yrs with 3 mill of 8, guaranteed. Not sure if you guys realize this but the Jets had no plans of him being a workhorse here. He'll rotate all early down work with Ivory and play on 3rd downs and be a big part of their passing game. That's his role with the Jets in 2014.

Oh, the good 'ol "take those two games away" BS.

Yeah that argument just never seems to go away. Once you get beyond the top tier of RBs all of them are going to have up and down weeks, with down weeks that can hurt you. It's a poor argument against Johnson or any other RB outside of the top few.

 

[Da Gildz]

No it's not. He's been pretty mediocre/terrible in about 75% of his games the last 2 seasons. He's by far the most feast or famine RB in fantasy. And yea taking 2 games away out of 16 is very fair. When u avg 3.75 ypc in 14/16 games, that's bad. That's very bad. You can all ride those 2-3 insane games he has and ill concentrate on the other 10-12 mediocre atrocities he throws out there.

 

[Ilov80s]

He's valued right. There's some potential, but a lot of red flags to go with it. Given the RB landscape though, you could do worse at RB2.

 

[rdrouyn]

He probably will generally disappoint his owners. As always, his numbers deceive. People will pump him up based on his ranking, citing that he was #9 or so at RB but it's not the type of ranking you can rely on.

Seven of his games yielded in 9 points or less, which is typical for him: he either gets you 7 or 27 it seems and then people see the end number and think that's rb1 material when what it really is, is a death sentence and a weekly aggravation.

If you can get him as a flex or rb2/3 (and you can't), then he would be hands down one of the most perfect RBs in fantasy because he is as durable as they come and he can knock those home runs and win weeks for you.

But when you draft him as your every week guy, you die a miserable death on the 6.4 weeks that literally occur half the time.

Yeah, he was #9 in my league last year. Adrian Peterson was #10, and guys like gore, bell and Matthews were even farther down. But I wouldn't draft Johnson in New York over any of those guys. Not because of what he can do on a given week but because it's a 13 week season in my leagues and those two-three weeks he gets 28 points won't cover those seven that he gets 6-9.

This. ^Also anyone predicting more than 230 carries is insane. Ivory isnt exactly a scrub, just injury prone. The coaches are saying they are going to limit his carries, usually coaches overpromise carries to players. Low RB2 with upside for me.

Bilal Powell absolutely IS a total scrub and got 176 carries and 36 catches last year, with Ivory only missing one game. Johnson wasn't brought in to NOT play a much more significant role than Bilal effing Powell.

So give him all of Powell's carries and catches. Add 50 rushes taken away from Ivory. You are still at 225 rushes and 40 catches. Not great for a guy who needs volume for fantasy relevance.

 

[12punch]

He probably will generally disappoint his owners. As always, his numbers deceive. People will pump him up based on his ranking, citing that he was #9 or so at RB but it's not the type of ranking you can rely on.

Seven of his games yielded in 9 points or less, which is typical for him: he either gets you 7 or 27 it seems and then people see the end number and think that's rb1 material when what it really is, is a death sentence and a weekly aggravation.

If you can get him as a flex or rb2/3 (and you can't), then he would be hands down one of the most perfect RBs in fantasy because he is as durable as they come and he can knock those home runs and win weeks for you.

But when you draft him as your every week guy, you die a miserable death on the 6.4 weeks that literally occur half the time.

Yeah, he was #9 in my league last year. Adrian Peterson was #10, and guys like gore, bell and Matthews were even farther down. But I wouldn't draft Johnson in New York over any of those guys. Not because of what he can do on a given week but because it's a 13 week season in my leagues and those two-three weeks he gets 28 points won't cover those seven that he gets 6-9.

This. ^Also anyone predicting more than 230 carries is insane. Ivory isnt exactly a scrub, just injury prone. The coaches are saying they are going to limit his carries, usually coaches overpromise carries to players. Low RB2 with upside for me.

Bilal Powell absolutely IS a total scrub and got 176 carries and 36 catches last year, with Ivory only missing one game. Johnson wasn't brought in to NOT play a much more significant role than Bilal effing Powell.

So give him all of Powell's carries and catches. Add 50 rushes taken away from Ivory. You are still at 225 rushes and 40 catches. Not great for a guy who needs volume for fantasy relevance.

first of all, I really hate being on the chris johnson side, and don't want to in any way have to defend him, but can I ask why you'd give him powell's catches, or whatever you did, under their previous offensive coordinator?

do you think the players just run out on the field with no kind of scheme of any significance?

marty mornhinweg has replaced tony sparano

also, ivory effectively benched powell, so I don't think I'd just pencil him for powell's carries unless you expect 20 carries for ivory to johnson's 6 every week.

 

[rdrouyn]

He probably will generally disappoint his owners. As always, his numbers deceive. People will pump him up based on his ranking, citing that he was #9 or so at RB but it's not the type of ranking you can rely on.

Seven of his games yielded in 9 points or less, which is typical for him: he either gets you 7 or 27 it seems and then people see the end number and think that's rb1 material when what it really is, is a death sentence and a weekly aggravation.

If you can get him as a flex or rb2/3 (and you can't), then he would be hands down one of the most perfect RBs in fantasy because he is as durable as they come and he can knock those home runs and win weeks for you.

But when you draft him as your every week guy, you die a miserable death on the 6.4 weeks that literally occur half the time.

Yeah, he was #9 in my league last year. Adrian Peterson was #10, and guys like gore, bell and Matthews were even farther down. But I wouldn't draft Johnson in New York over any of those guys. Not because of what he can do on a given week but because it's a 13 week season in my leagues and those two-three weeks he gets 28 points won't cover those seven that he gets 6-9.

This. ^Also anyone predicting more than 230 carries is insane. Ivory isnt exactly a scrub, just injury prone. The coaches are saying they are going to limit his carries, usually coaches overpromise carries to players. Low RB2 with upside for me.

Bilal Powell absolutely IS a total scrub and got 176 carries and 36 catches last year, with Ivory only missing one game. Johnson wasn't brought in to NOT play a much more significant role than Bilal effing Powell.

So give him all of Powell's carries and catches. Add 50 rushes taken away from Ivory. You are still at 225 rushes and 40 catches. Not great for a guy who needs volume for fantasy relevance.

first of all, I really hate being on the chris johnson side, and don't want to in any way have to defend him, but can I ask why you'd give him powell's catches, or whatever you did, under their previous offensive coordinator?

do you think the players just run out on the field with no kind of scheme of any significance?

marty mornhinweg has replaced tony sparano

also, ivory effectively benched powell, so I don't think I'd just pencil him for powell's carries unless you expect 20 carries for ivory to johnson's 6 every week.

You must be really bad at math or not aware of what happened last year.

Ivory had 182 carries.

Powell had 176 carries.

Powell did not get 6 carries a game, it was almost a 50-50 split mostly because Ivory missed games.

I expect the split to look more like this

Johnson 225 carries

Ivory 130 carries

Powell whatever is left.

Based on what the coaching staff has been saying about keeping him fresh, the fact that Ivory is a decent runner so he wont completely be phased out and that CJ is recovering from knee surgery.

 

[Insein]

I dont want to get too hyped but if I can get this guy in the 4th this year, I think it will be a coup. Just looking at the numbers, the situation, the players around him, this has a Thomas Jones type of renaissance feel to it.

 

[12punch]

He probably will generally disappoint his owners. As always, his numbers deceive. People will pump him up based on his ranking, citing that he was #9 or so at RB but it's not the type of ranking you can rely on.

Seven of his games yielded in 9 points or less, which is typical for him: he either gets you 7 or 27 it seems and then people see the end number and think that's rb1 material when what it really is, is a death sentence and a weekly aggravation.

If you can get him as a flex or rb2/3 (and you can't), then he would be hands down one of the most perfect RBs in fantasy because he is as durable as they come and he can knock those home runs and win weeks for you.

But when you draft him as your every week guy, you die a miserable death on the 6.4 weeks that literally occur half the time.

Yeah, he was #9 in my league last year. Adrian Peterson was #10, and guys like gore, bell and Matthews were even farther down. But I wouldn't draft Johnson in New York over any of those guys. Not because of what he can do on a given week but because it's a 13 week season in my leagues and those two-three weeks he gets 28 points won't cover those seven that he gets 6-9.

This. ^Also anyone predicting more than 230 carries is insane. Ivory isnt exactly a scrub, just injury prone. The coaches are saying they are going to limit his carries, usually coaches overpromise carries to players. Low RB2 with upside for me.

Bilal Powell absolutely IS a total scrub and got 176 carries and 36 catches last year, with Ivory only missing one game. Johnson wasn't brought in to NOT play a much more significant role than Bilal effing Powell.

So give him all of Powell's carries and catches. Add 50 rushes taken away from Ivory. You are still at 225 rushes and 40 catches. Not great for a guy who needs volume for fantasy relevance.

first of all, I really hate being on the chris johnson side, and don't want to in any way have to defend him, but can I ask why you'd give him powell's catches, or whatever you did, under their previous offensive coordinator?

do you think the players just run out on the field with no kind of scheme of any significance?

marty mornhinweg has replaced tony sparano

also, ivory effectively benched powell, so I don't think I'd just pencil him for powell's carries unless you expect 20 carries for ivory to johnson's 6 every week.

You must be really bad at math or not aware of what happened last year.

Ivory had 182 carries.

Powell had 176 carries.

Powell did not get 6 carries a game, it was almost a 50-50 split mostly because Ivory missed games.

I expect the split to look more like this

Johnson 225 carries

Ivory 130 carries

Powell whatever is left.

Based on what the coaching staff has been saying about keeping him fresh, the fact that Ivory is a decent runner so he wont completely be phased out and that CJ is recovering from knee surgery.

week -- ivory -- powell

1 - 10 - 12

2 - 12 - 13

3 - 4 - 27 -- hammy

4 - 0 - 14

5 - 4 - 12

6 - 4 - 9

================

7 - 34 - 3

8 - 6 - 10 (jets blown out 49 - 9)

9 - 18 - 9

11 - 15 - 5

12 - 9 - 11 --- ankle

13 - 12 - 7

14 - 18 - 8

15 - 11 - 8

16 - 20 - 7

17 - 5 - 21 --- ribs

sorry, I guess it was more like 7-8 carries/game -- my mistake

if 34 - 3, 18 - 9, 15 - 5, 12 - 7, 18 - 8, 11 - 8, and 20 - 7 splits in the second half of the season are 50/50 splits then I really am horrible at math.

I guess the games he missed were week 4.......

 

[Ghost Rider]

No it's not. He's been pretty mediocre/terrible in about 75% of his games the last 2 seasons. He's by far the most feast or famine RB in fantasy. And yea taking 2 games away out of 16 is very fair. When u avg 3.75 ypc in 14/16 games, that's bad. That's very bad. You can all ride those 2-3 insane games he has and ill concentrate on the other 10-12 mediocre atrocities he throws out there.

Weeks 1-6 were rough last year, but he was the 5th highest RB in point scored for weeks 7-17, and had 15+ points in six of those games.

 

[nirad3]

No it's not. He's been pretty mediocre/terrible in about 75% of his games the last 2 seasons. He's by far the most feast or famine RB in fantasy. And yea taking 2 games away out of 16 is very fair. When u avg 3.75 ypc in 14/16 games, that's bad. That's very bad. You can all ride those 2-3 insane games he has and ill concentrate on the other 10-12 mediocre atrocities he throws out there.

Weeks 1-6 were rough last year, but he was the 5th highest RB in point scored for weeks 7-17, and had 15+ points in six of those games.

And just for clarity's sake:

Week 1 - tough opener @ PIT

Week 4 - faced the stout NYJ D

Week 6 - faced the Seahawks

He managed double digits against HOU and SD and while he was stymied on the ground vs. KC, he made up for it with 4 catches for 63 yards and a score.

And yeah, weeks 7-17 he was steadily good.

Not sure what the issue is here. YPC tells you ONE thing... and doesn't automatically translate into poor fantasy production. We ARE talking fantasy football here, right?

 

[Tanner9919]

I dont want to get too hyped but if I can get this guy in the 4th this year, I think it will be a coup. Just looking at the numbers, the situation, the players around him, this has a Thomas Jones type of renaissance feel to it.

good post!

a rock-solid offensive line with a coaching staff hell-bent on running the ball and a RB who still has plenty of speed to burn defenders.

shhh...at his ADP , he *might* be the best value at RB this season.

Tenn was a joke the past few seasons..you can't put that all on CJ.

 

[bostonfred]

He probably will generally disappoint his owners. As always, his numbers deceive. People will pump him up based on his ranking, citing that he was #9 or so at RB but it's not the type of ranking you can rely on.

Seven of his games yielded in 9 points or less, which is typical for him: he either gets you 7 or 27 it seems and then people see the end number and think that's rb1 material when what it really is, is a death sentence and a weekly aggravation.

If you can get him as a flex or rb2/3 (and you can't), then he would be hands down one of the most perfect RBs in fantasy because he is as durable as they come and he can knock those home runs and win weeks for you.

But when you draft him as your every week guy, you die a miserable death on the 6.4 weeks that literally occur half the time.

Yeah, he was #9 in my league last year. Adrian Peterson was #10, and guys like gore, bell and Matthews were even farther down. But I wouldn't draft Johnson in New York over any of those guys. Not because of what he can do on a given week but because it's a 13 week season in my leagues and those two-three weeks he gets 28 points won't cover those seven that he gets 6-9.

out of curiosity, how many games of less than 9 points do you think adrian peterson had last year? Gore? Bell? Mathews? Just guess without looking it up. Then if you want to look it up, let us know if that changed your mind.

 

[Eminence]

I love the blind hate Johnson is getting. For as many 1st Round RB busts as we saw last year, lol.

People have short memories I guess.

 

[Sabertooth]

Can't wait to watch Rex when Johnson mails in his first game. Which should be his first game. Must see TV.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

No it's not. He's been pretty mediocre/terrible in about 75% of his games the last 2 seasons. He's by far the most feast or famine RB in fantasy. And yea taking 2 games away out of 16 is very fair. When u avg 3.75 ypc in 14/16 games, that's bad. That's very bad. You can all ride those 2-3 insane games he has and ill concentrate on the other 10-12 mediocre atrocities he throws out there.

Solid post. I don't see the effort in CJ's runs anymore. If he see's a clear path, he will burn thru it like greased lightning and make the home run play. But too often, the holes will be muddy and he seems to dance around and stick and jab looking for a soft spot to fall down. He's no longer a volume rusher, so his opportunities for the long ball are also limited. I think both Powell and Ivory provide the physical toughness that move the chains and fit the Jets offense so well. This looks to me like a full blown RBBC with each back eating into each other's fantasy value. I could see taking CJ?k in the fifth round, but likely I'd pass on him even there, unless he filled my RB3/flex spot.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

No it's not. He's been pretty mediocre/terrible in about 75% of his games the last 2 seasons. He's by far the most feast or famine RB in fantasy. And yea taking 2 games away out of 16 is very fair. When u avg 3.75 ypc in 14/16 games, that's bad. That's very bad. You can all ride those 2-3 insane games he has and ill concentrate on the other 10-12 mediocre atrocities he throws out there.

Solid post. I don't see the effort in CJ's runs anymore. If he see's a clear path, he will burn thru it like greased lightning and make the home run play. But too often, the holes will be muddy and he seems to dance around and stick and jab looking for a soft spot to fall down. He's no longer a volume rusher, so his opportunities for the long ball are also limited. I think both Powell and Ivory provide the physical toughness that move the chains and fit the Jets offense so well. This looks to me like a full blown RBBC with each back eating into each other's fantasy value. I could see taking CJ?k in the fifth round, but likely I'd pass on him even there, unless he filled my RB3/flex spot.

Yeah, I agree that he wasn't himself last year for sure -- but how much of that was his torn meniscus and how much was him just mailing it in knowing he was going to be asked to take a huge pay cut and that likely he wasn't going to be back?

I think that the knee surgery and a new team might do wonders for a player like Johnson. And if not, the risk is already priced in at RB24. About 1000 total yards and 4 - 5 TDs is all he needs to be a "break even" pick at his current cost, and that's pretty much a worst case stat line for him IMO.

 

[Banger]

He probably will generally disappoint his owners. As always, his numbers deceive. People will pump him up based on his ranking, citing that he was #9 or so at RB but it's not the type of ranking you can rely on.

Seven of his games yielded in 9 points or less, which is typical for him: he either gets you 7 or 27 it seems and then people see the end number and think that's rb1 material when what it really is, is a death sentence and a weekly aggravation.

If you can get him as a flex or rb2/3 (and you can't), then he would be hands down one of the most perfect RBs in fantasy because he is as durable as they come and he can knock those home runs and win weeks for you.

But when you draft him as your every week guy, you die a miserable death on the 6.4 weeks that literally occur half the time.

Yeah, he was #9 in my league last year. Adrian Peterson was #10, and guys like gore, bell and Matthews were even farther down. But I wouldn't draft Johnson in New York over any of those guys. Not because of what he can do on a given week but because it's a 13 week season in my leagues and those two-three weeks he gets 28 points won't cover those seven that he gets 6-9.

if I remember right you haven't been a fan for years and were arguing hard for McFadden over him a few years ago. Yes, his mercurial point production can be frustrating but you aren't taking him as your #1 back or if you are you are going to have a sick starting lineup outside of RB. If you get him in the 5th and you can't withstand a few dud weeks from your #2 back you're not very good at this game.

The Jets will have a good defense, they will look to run the ball, A LOT, they may have Vick back there (anyone remember when VY was his qb?) and while he's not the player he was, he's still their most talented offensive player. Chris Ivory plays a punishing game and has proven time and again he cannot stay healthy...even when he's healthy he's struggling with something and Powell is a scrub. I think teaming up with Ivory is great for him...let him take the pounding, soften the defense and let CJ burst through the holes...he did fine with LenWhale in that role a few years back.

No matter what you say or the evidence you provide CJ haters have a bias against him that they cannot overcome which is great for guys like me that continue to take him and prosper. In his career he's finished 11th, 1st, 5th, 16th, 12th and 9th....all the haters should read that line again. As I've said all off season, he's being drafted at his floor and if a few things break right he's a top 10ish back, again. That's how you win leagues.

 

[Reaper]

He probably will generally disappoint his owners. As always, his numbers deceive. People will pump him up based on his ranking, citing that he was #9 or so at RB but it's not the type of ranking you can rely on.

Seven of his games yielded in 9 points or less, which is typical for him: he either gets you 7 or 27 it seems and then people see the end number and think that's rb1 material when what it really is, is a death sentence and a weekly aggravation.

If you can get him as a flex or rb2/3 (and you can't), then he would be hands down one of the most perfect RBs in fantasy because he is as durable as they come and he can knock those home runs and win weeks for you.

But when you draft him as your every week guy, you die a miserable death on the 6.4 weeks that literally occur half the time.

Yeah, he was #9 in my league last year. Adrian Peterson was #10, and guys like gore, bell and Matthews were even farther down. But I wouldn't draft Johnson in New York over any of those guys. Not because of what he can do on a given week but because it's a 13 week season in my leagues and those two-three weeks he gets 28 points won't cover those seven that he gets 6-9.

if I remember right you haven't been a fan for years and were arguing hard for McFadden over him a few years ago. Yes, his mercurial point production can be frustrating but you aren't taking him as your #1 back or if you are you are going to have a sick starting lineup outside of RB. If you get him in the 5th and you can't withstand a few dud weeks from your #2 back you're not very good at this game.

The Jets will have a good defense, they will look to run the ball, A LOT, they may have Vick back there (anyone remember when VY was his qb?) and while he's not the player he was, he's still their most talented offensive player. Chris Ivory plays a punishing game and has proven time and again he cannot stay healthy...even when he's healthy he's struggling with something and Powell is a scrub. I think teaming up with Ivory is great for him...let him take the pounding, soften the defense and let CJ burst through the holes...he did fine with LenWhale in that role a few years back.

No matter what you say or the evidence you provide CJ haters have a bias against him that they cannot overcome which is great for guys like me that continue to take him and prosper. In his career he's finished 11th, 1st, 5th, 16th, 12th and 9th....all the haters should read that line again. As I've said all off season, he's being drafted at his floor and if a few things break right he's a top 10ish back, again. That's how you win leagues.

FBG Championship last night... Drafted at 6.11

We're talking the 26th RB taken - Technically a 3rd RB.

I think the Haters are missing the point and wasting time... Just pick another questionable RB in that tier then say, Gore, Rice, Ridley, SJax, Pierre..... Oh you can find flaws with those guys too?????? OK then.

After This Tier, for me, we're talking backup RB's and Rookies....

 

[pantherclub]

I honest to God dont understand leagues that have their drafts well before training camp. Makes absolutely no sense to me

 

[Reaper]

I honest to God dont understand leagues that have their drafts well before training camp. Makes absolutely no sense to me

LOL.... Between Weekly Games and Survivor leagues I'm just about drafting at all times during the year.

There's always value to be had and money to be made....

I don't manage many teams.. That to me gets tedious... I like the draft.

 

[12punch]

I dont want to get too hyped but if I can get this guy in the 4th this year, I think it will be a coup. Just looking at the numbers, the situation, the players around him, this has a Thomas Jones type of renaissance feel to it.

good post!

a rock-solid offensive line with a coaching staff hell-bent on running the ball and a RB who still has plenty of speed to burn defenders.

shhh...at his ADP , he *might* be the best value at RB this season.

Tenn was a joke the past few seasons..you can't put that all on CJ.

not in PFF's opinion

Could the offensive lines in Tennessee and New York at least partially explain why Ivory outperformed Johnson in these metrics? Nope, sorry. Tennessee had the 5th best run blocking unit last year compared to the Jets 31st.

and the jets ran it a whopping 25 more times than the titans last year, although we're talking about different coaching staffs.

in morhinweg's 2010 + 2011 seasons in philly he ran the ball about 90x/season less than the jets did last year, with shady as his main 'back

 

[Banger]

I honest to God dont understand leagues that have their drafts well before training camp. Makes absolutely no sense to me

actually I wish more of my leagues did that. If you are good and can read the tea leaves effectively it seems like you can get real value due to uncertainty in so many situations. If you wait for all the camp battles to be settled, ADP readjusts over night and the ability to get a guy really cheap is gone.

 

[bostonfred]

The tennessee offensive line has added a ton of talent over the last three years, and they're a huge part of the reason I like sankey. But they had a lot of young and new guys working together at the start of the season as they were facing the toughest part of their schedule. Its not surprising that chris johnsons first half/second half splits were so different. He destroyed the easy part of his schedule.

 

[Da Gildz]

I honest to God dont understand leagues that have their drafts well before training camp. Makes absolutely no sense to me

actually I wish more of my leagues did that. If you are good and can read the tea leaves effectively it seems like you can get real value due to uncertainty in so many situations. If you wait for all the camp battles to be settled, ADP readjusts over night and the ability to get a guy really cheap is gone.

This. There are a ton of guys u can get pretty cheap right now who's stock could skyrocket after a couple preseason games. Davonta Freeman/ tre mason / Charles Sims/ James White are a few names that come to mind. You can get all of them rd 9, 10 and even into late teens at the moment. Those guys could be wayyyy more expensive come late August.

 

[bagger]

Chris Johnson may lead the team in receptions.

He's amazing value in the 5th.

You get a top 15 RB (essentially 2nd round value) in the 5th? Yes please.

How the hedoublehockeysticks do you figure top 15 RB?List your top 14, Johnson and the next 10

For PPR FBG has him projected as RB21 and I think that is generous

He was top ten last year. 15 doesn't seem that generous to me unless you're a big ivory fan.Heres ten guys who should be rb1s barring injury or other bustitude:

Mccoy charles peterson forte lacy Lynch ball foster murray bell

After that, things get dicey. Morris with gruden could be a beast or he could suck because they go full committee. In non ppr, I still like him because of the tds.Bernard is more talented, but may be in a timeshare again and with a better td scorer. I like him, but im afraid to like him like him. Doug martin has a bunch of red flags, and people are talking time share with him.

Zac stacy was a volume guy and the rams added a good back in the draft. Andre ellington? As a lead back? I see the opportunity, but he also added weight which could hurt his speed, but if he didn't, he was too small to carry the load. color me nervous. Cj spiller? if healthy, he should be splitting time with more guys than usual. Sweet.

Reggie bush lost the good half of his job last year, and now he's back to being the injury guy. Speaking of injury guys with half a job, there's ryan mathews. Apparently the ff community has totally forgiven him after a good year.

Gerhart is totally unestablished and playing on a bad offense but he could be good if he gets a shot. Sankeys equally unestablished, but at least hes a rookie. Rashad jennings is a 29 year old back on a new team with a bundle of running backs, a coach who likes thunder and lightning committees, and an injury and suck history of his own. He looked awesome for two months, but during those same exact two months, cj2k outscored him. Frank gore? Maybe during september and october. vereen? In ppr, sure, if you can hack the injury history. In non ppr no way. Trent richardson? Ray rice? Nope.

So while I can't speak for bagger, I think I can just say take those top ten guys, then pick five of the next bunch of guys and decide which blemishes bug you less than chris johnson changing teams. For me, I think he outscores quite a few of those guys. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see him back in the top ten this year. I don't like a lot of the guys in that muddled middle this year. There's lots of committees and guys taking on roles they've never had for a full season.

i should really be paying bfred for making all these points for me while I sit back and eat popcorn .Plus maybe with me getting older I just don't care if people believe me or not, with two small kids I just don't have the energy to try to iconvince someone when they will never change anyway.

Bfred is killing it in here. Nice work.

 

[Chaka]

5th round doesn't mean much without context. How many running backs were taken before him?

 

[12punch]

5th round doesn't mean much without context. How many running backs were taken before him?

25

 

[massraider]

I am targeting Ivory. I think he's better than CJ, and the Jets will figure that out, and he'll be the 60 in the 60/40 split.

CJs loss of speed is alarming, and dramatic.

 

[Reaper]

I am targeting Ivory. I think he's better than CJ, and the Jets will figure that out, and he'll be the 60 in the 60/40 split.

CJs loss of speed is alarming, and dramatic.

14 Joique Bell DET 166 / 650 3.9 8TD 53 Rec 547 0 220.70

15 LeVeon Bell PIT 244 / 860 3.5 8TD 45 Rec 408 0 219.80

16 Pierre Thomas NO 147 / 549 3.7 2TD 77 Rec 513 3 213.20

17 Ryan Mathews SD 285 / 1255 4.4 6TD 26 Rec 189 1 212.40

18 Frank Gore SF 276 / 1128 4.1 9TD 16 Rec 141 0 196.90

19 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 235 / 803 3.4 5TD 43 Rec 314 0 189.10

20 Alfred Morris WAS 276 /1275 4.6 7TD 9 Rec 78 0 186.30

Just playing with last years PPR stats 14-20... I'm looking at what Jet RB could approach the top 15....

I can see CJ putting up between J Bell / L Bell / Pierre like #'s in 16 games heck, MJD numbers... A Top 20 RB you draft at RB26 or so.

Ivory would have to put up Morris like #'s with no receptions to just get close (Which reminds me - DO NOT DRAFT ALFRED MORRIS at current 3rd rnd rate)

Granted I'm getting CJ in round 6 and Ivory in round 11 but, Ivory seems to have a definite low Ceiling - I love Ivory on the Jets - Just not sure when I would actually Love putting him in a FF lineup unless CJ was out and even then, you pray for a TD.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I am targeting Ivory. I think he's better than CJ, and the Jets will figure that out, and he'll be the 60 in the 60/40 split.

CJs loss of speed is alarming, and dramatic.

Even if Ivory gets the majority of carries, which wouldn't surprise me, Johnson will likely get many more catches. Hell, Ivory only had two catches last year, and was never used much in the passing game in NO, where they love to throw to their RBs, so Ivory's upside is limited in fantasy ball. I think he's way more likely to get carries inside the 5 than Johnson, but whomever is in at QB is a threat to run it in from that close, so a lot of touchdowns by any Jet RB could be unrealistic this year. Ivory's price will be cheaper than Johnson's, but there is a reason for that. Ivory could run for, say, 100 more yards than Johnson if the 60-40 split happens the way you project, but Johnson's massive edge in catches and receiving yards will still him the edge and make him a better play overall.

 

[Insein]

Ill be targetting Johnson in the 4th and probably grab Ivory in the 10th. If one or the other goes down, they should have value as Powell showed last year.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

What will be the impact on the RBBC in New York if for some reason Vick beats out Smith as the opening day starter? Good or bad thing for CJ/Ivory? Also, are we sticking a fork in Powell's fantasy value yet?

 

[12punch]

I am targeting Ivory. I think he's better than CJ, and the Jets will figure that out, and he'll be the 60 in the 60/40 split.

CJs loss of speed is alarming, and dramatic.

14 Joique Bell DET 166 / 650 3.9 8TD 53 Rec 547 0 220.70

15 LeVeon Bell PIT 244 / 860 3.5 8TD 45 Rec 408 0 219.80

16 Pierre Thomas NO 147 / 549 3.7 2TD 77 Rec 513 3 213.20

17 Ryan Mathews SD 285 / 1255 4.4 6TD 26 Rec 189 1 212.40

18 Frank Gore SF 276 / 1128 4.1 9TD 16 Rec 141 0 196.90

19 Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 235 / 803 3.4 5TD 43 Rec 314 0 189.10

20 Alfred Morris WAS 276 /1275 4.6 7TD 9 Rec 78 0 186.30

Just playing with last years PPR stats 14-20... I'm looking at what Jet RB could approach the top 15....

I can see CJ putting up between J Bell / L Bell / Pierre like #'s in 16 games heck, MJD numbers... A Top 20 RB you draft at RB26 or so.

Ivory would have to put up Morris like #'s with no receptions to just get close (Which reminds me - DO NOT DRAFT ALFRED MORRIS at current 3rd rnd rate)

Granted I'm getting CJ in round 6 and Ivory in round 11 but, Ivory seems to have a definite low Ceiling - I love Ivory on the Jets - Just not sure when I would actually Love putting him in a FF lineup unless CJ was out and even then, you pray for a TD.

chris johnson will be the 2014 reggie bush

MARK IT DOWN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Chaka]

5th round doesn't mean much without context. How many running backs were taken before him?

25

I have him at RB 19 on my board right now and I could see an argument for dropping him a couple spots but CJ as the 26th RB off the board seems excessive.

 

[Insein]

What will be the impact on the RBBC in New York if for some reason Vick beats out Smith as the opening day starter? Good or bad thing for CJ/Ivory? Also, are we sticking a fork in Powell's fantasy value yet?

Powell had no value last year until injury. I think the same holds true this year.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

What will be the impact on the RBBC in New York if for some reason Vick beats out Smith as the opening day starter? Good or bad thing for CJ/Ivory? Also, are we sticking a fork in Powell's fantasy value yet?

Powell had no value last year until injury. I think the same holds true this year.

Except now Powell's the backup to a backup? Doesn't sound too promising.

And what about Vick and a possible QB controversy. There are some people in the press, Keyshon Johnson I think it was, that are saying they feel for certain that Vick will start for the Jets on opening weekend. How does that change the RBBC dynamic, if at all?

 

[bostonfred]

The biggest issue for running backs with running quarterbacks is that running QBs are touchdown vultures. But with Chris Johnson, it's not like he was going to get a lot of 1st and goal carries anyways. The good news, though, is that defenses can't key on Johnson, who is unquestionably their best player, just like he was in Tennessee. That should open up lanes for him, which is exactly what you want for a guy who needs to get in space.

 

[Banger]

The biggest issue for running backs with running quarterbacks is that running QBs are touchdown vultures. But with Chris Johnson, it's not like he was going to get a lot of 1st and goal carries anyways. The good news, though, is that defenses can't key on Johnson, who is unquestionably their best player, just like he was in Tennessee. That should open up lanes for him, which is exactly what you want for a guy who needs to get in space.

ya, you have to respect Vick's ability to run just like teams had to respect Vince Young. He had his best year with VY and I think Vick would be a good boost to CJ.

 

[cstu]

I am targeting Ivory. I think he's better than CJ, and the Jets will figure that out, and he'll be the 60 in the 60/40 split.

CJs loss of speed is alarming, and dramatic.

Still managed to be a top 5 RB the second half of the season.

 

[Banger]

I am targeting Ivory. I think he's better than CJ, and the Jets will figure that out, and he'll be the 60 in the 60/40 split.CJs loss of speed is alarming, and dramatic.

Still managed to be a top 5 RB the second half of the season.

Helped win me another championship.

 

[Ojaays]

I am targeting Ivory. I think he's better than CJ, and the Jets will figure that out, and he'll be the 60 in the 60/40 split.

CJs loss of speed is alarming, and dramatic.

Me too.

Ivory is the cheap gold here. Should be able to get him late.

 

[Chaka]

If the Jets had any faith in Ivory they wouldn't have signed Chris Johnson and they certainly are not paying him $4 mil/year to take only 40% of the carries.

 

[massraider]

I am targeting Ivory. I think he's better than CJ, and the Jets will figure that out, and he'll be the 60 in the 60/40 split.

CJs loss of speed is alarming, and dramatic.

Still managed to be a top 5 RB the second half of the season.

And managed to do it while looking, completely ordinary.

 

[need2know]

Ivory always seems hurt too

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I am targeting Ivory. I think he's better than CJ, and the Jets will figure that out, and he'll be the 60 in the 60/40 split.

CJs loss of speed is alarming, and dramatic.

Me too.Ivory is the cheap gold here. Should be able to get him late.

Ivory was FF garbage last year despite staying healthier than he ever had prior and having only Bilal Powell to compete with. He was RB57 in PPG in 2013, and now has to compete with a much better player for touches. I hope by "gold" you actually mean "barely rosterable poop."

 

[jurb26]

I am targeting Ivory. I think he's better than CJ, and the Jets will figure that out, and he'll be the 60 in the 60/40 split.

CJs loss of speed is alarming, and dramatic.

Me too.Ivory is the cheap gold here. Should be able to get him late.

I hope by "gold" you actually mean "barely rosterable poop."

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

What will be the impact on the RBBC in New York if for some reason Vick beats out Smith as the opening day starter? Good or bad thing for CJ/Ivory? Also, are we sticking a fork in Powell's fantasy value yet?

Michael Vick has always impacted his RBs positively that start behind him. I remember Warrick Dunn always compiling decent numbers mostly because defenses were preoccupied with Vick.

 

[chickensoup]

I just don't understand why people would be down on CJ for a 5th round price tag. Provided he stays on the field, you should definitely get value for him and there's no reason to believe he will get injured.

While last years numbers are anomalous, he really has to provide Ridley or Mendenhall numbers from last year to earn his draft position in standard scoring (DWill numbers in PPR). Can anyone really say that it's not extremely likely he outperforms those kind of pedestrian numbers?