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CJ Anderson (5 Viewers)

Looks like an offer sheet's been signed.  DEN has 5 days to match it or let him walk.

What does this do to his value?   Maybe that depends on what DEN gets at QB?

 
Finally catching up with some post-draft UDFA profiles and thought I'd tackle CJ Anderson here.

Like I said above, Anderson is someone that I completely missed pre-draft, missed post-draft, missed during OTAs and missed during mini-camp. In fact, he wasn't on my radar at all until the Denver v San Francisco pre-season game. But when I finally got around to plugging him into the RB model I liked what I saw quite a bit. Especially in terms of value and opportunity vs cost.

The biggest knock on Anderson is that he's an UDFA, but the "why" story here -- small school transfer to Cal to be part of a time share -- is a good one IMO. With only 72 touches his first year in Division I football Anderson couldn't have been further under the radar. And he was in a timeshare his senior year as well -- despite outperforming the other back. The NFL is skittish about using picks on relative unknowns and guys with so few NCAA touches.

In terms of finding comparables let's start with his relevant measurables (see here for more info):

Rushing and Receiving Vision: good+/outstanding+ (most likely inflated by limited touches/niche role)
Height: 68 1/8"
Size: 224 pounds/+1.49 adjusted size (big)
Speed: 4.53/+.30 (average size-adjusted speed)
Explosion: 32" vert, 119" broad (average for his size -- not explosive)

In terms of both size and explosion, Anderson benefits from being short. His considerable weight is more compact than most players, which allows him to bring more of it bear in a collision, and less is expected of bowling ball builds when it comes to the jumps.

In addition it turns out that good vision, average speed and acceptable explosion in a guy this big is a useful combination for an NFL back. Who else has a similar mix of abilities? It's a nice list for an UDFA.

Here are the players 5'10.5" or less who qualify as Big, have at least average rushing vision, but don't have elite speed or explosion (organized by the rushing metric):

Vick Ballard
C.J. Anderson
Onterrio Smith
Cedric Benson
Travis Henry

--Ballard is a borderline guy on this list. At 219 on the nose he barely qualifies as Big and his explosion numbers are suspect as well. He makes up for it with truly exceptional vision. If he were five pounds heavier and even slightly more explosive his prospects would be much better.

--Onterrio Smith had a successful NFL career and literally pissed it away. But his on-field performance in a limited role during his first two years as a pro was strong (4.9/carry, 10.3/catch).

--Cedric Benson may be Anderson's best comparable, except that Benson had 1100 high-profile touches in the NCAA and was a known commodity. Again though, Benson's NFL career looks a lot more like you'd expect from his inclusion on this list than it looks like the average career of a #4 pick.

--Like O. Smith, Henry's off-field exploits got in the way of a successful NFL career -- he had over 1500 yards from scrimmage in both his 2nd and 3rd NFL seasons before the wheels started to wobble and then came off.

Worth noting is that Anderson may be a better receiver than anyone else on the list of comps above. His receiving measure is outstanding. It's helped by having a 78 yard TD as part of a limited sample to be sure, but even without the long TD his receiving measure is strong.

Summing all this up, it's not surprising that Anderson flashed in camp and the pre-season. Per his profile he's a pretty decent RB prospect despite his limited opportunity in major conference NCAA football. There's a long way to go now that he's injured, and whether he can stand up to an ongoing NFL pounding is a bigger question for him than most since he didn't do it at Cal either, but if he can stay healthy and make the roster it wouldn't be surprising to see Anderson eventually emerge as the starter. Especially given that none of the other backs in Denver have seized the role. And FWIW, the RB model hates Ball as an NFL starter (he projects as Vick Ballard lite).
Wouldn't include Ballard or Benson on this list if I were doing it again today, but nice to get one right.

 
Looks like an offer sheet's been signed.  DEN has 5 days to match it or let him walk.

What does this do to his value?   Maybe that depends on what DEN gets at QB?
I like him in Miami as long as Ajay doesn't interrupt too much

 
I wouldn't be surprised to see Den match. Someone on DLF said the Broncos we're going to match but I didn't see a source. 

If he does end up going to Mia its not 100% his job yet. This situation is tbd.

 
Benjamin Allbright @AllbrightNFL
Correction CJ Anderson contract will not be matched, will go to #Dolphins at 4 yrs/18mil ($10mil+ guarantees)
He's been pretty much bang on w/ his scoops so far this FA.

 
He's been pretty much bang on w/ his scoops so far this FA.
They'd only have about 14M in cap space left if they match that offer.  And they still don't have a quarterback.  I don't see how they can sign him unless they structure it so its backloaded, but I believe that the Broncos have to match the deal as is, so whatever money the Dolphins gave him for 2016 would apply to the Broncos as well.  I'd bet that the 'phins made that contract a little more front loaded to prevent Broncos from matching.

 
Glad to see him out of Denver. They have a great D but they have no O now. Teams would have stacked the box with whoever they dig up at QB.

 
Really disappointed, really really disappointed! 

Denver staff did the most idiotic thing I have seen in free agency this year. 

 
They'd only have about 14M in cap space left if they match that offer.  And they still don't have a quarterback.  I don't see how they can sign him unless they structure it so its backloaded, but I believe that the Broncos have to match the deal as is, so whatever money the Dolphins gave him for 2016 would apply to the Broncos as well.  I'd bet that the 'phins made that contract a little more front loaded to prevent Broncos from matching.
If Elway thought CJA was worth it, he could easily re-do contracts for Clady and Ware to claw out some space.  If more is needed, he could get Vons giant deal done but back-load it for more space this year.  He could also cut the $4M punter.

It wouldn't be all that hard for Elway to come up with another, say...another $10M in cap space if needed.

 
Cecil mentioned on last night's Audible:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xd1ETdZCkCY


The Audible LIVE! 3.10.2016


-------------------------------------------------------------

That the team was saying two different narratives on CJ before free agency.

1. They wanted CJ back

2. The team was going to probably draft a RB in the draft

Cecil felt the team wasn't putting out a consistent message and that indicated to Lammey that the Broncos were going in another direction from CJ so he doesn't think they are going to match Miami's offer. 

 
Elway goes from looking like a genius to a dunce this offseason. I doubt many would trade the ring for having a better offseason though.

 
I give Elway a lot of credit.  I'm sure some of these moves won't work out for him, but he has a vision of how to run the franchise and he's avoiding the temptation to throw that vision in the garbage bin just because they won a Super Bowl.

They may never get back there, but he's been a good GM overall and has already done something that most GMs never do.

 
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I certainly wouldn't anoint him the starting RB for Miami just yet.....
Are you saying that his old offensive coordinator made his first big splash on the offensive side as a head coach in the league on a guy that is going to share time

with the teams fifth round pick last year who barely contributed. I am not thinking so. I really like Anderson reuniting with Gase and playing in Miami compared

to returning to Denver.

 
Elway goes from looking like a genius to a dunce this offseason. I doubt many would trade the ring for having a better offseason though.
When a team wins the Super Bowl, EVERY player believes it was because of themselves, and EVERY player thinks that they deserve to be paid twice as much.

The Broncos and Elway are smart to not spend like drunken sailors.

Brock Osweiler is not an elite player.

CJ Anderson is not an elite player.

Malik Jackson is not an elite player.

Danny Trevathan is not an elite player.

Congrats to Elway for recognizing that these guys are JAGs.

 
Really disappointed, really really disappointed! 

Denver staff did the most idiotic thing I have seen in free agency this year. 
Interesting. I see it as Miami doing the most idiotic thing in FA this year by signing a pedestrian RB to that kind of contract. 

 
When a team wins the Super Bowl, EVERY player believes it was because of themselves, and EVERY player thinks that they deserve to be paid twice as much.

The Broncos and Elway are smart to not spend like drunken sailors.

Brock Osweiler is not an elite player.

CJ Anderson is not an elite player.

Malik Jackson is not an elite player.

Danny Trevathan is not an elite player.

Congrats to Elway for recognizing that these guys are JAGs.
I agree with everything here, but Elway did screw up not tendering CJA.. 

 
When a team wins the Super Bowl, EVERY player believes it was because of themselves, and EVERY player thinks that they deserve to be paid twice as much.

The Broncos and Elway are smart to not spend like drunken sailors.

Brock Osweiler is not an elite player.

CJ Anderson is not an elite player.

Malik Jackson is not an elite player.

Danny Trevathan is not an elite player.

Congrats to Elway for recognizing that these guys are JAGs.
I agree with this 100%.  I also agree the Colts won in free agency this year because they didn't participate, unlike last year when they wet the bed in free agency.  (J)ust (A)nother (G)uy best summarizes Osweiler, Anderson, Jackson, and Trevathan.  This is how teams win championships, they know when to spend and when not to.  I only wish the Colts could do a better job of this.  Grigson could learn from Elway IMO.

 
Interesting. I see it as Miami doing the most idiotic thing in FA this year by signing a pedestrian RB to that kind of contract. 
Pedestrian or not, he was worth 2.5m what the second round tender would have cost.

IMO Anderson is solid good top-12 rb. Runs hard, avoids tackles, breaks tackles and has a good vision. 

 
When a team wins the Super Bowl, EVERY player believes it was because of themselves, and EVERY player thinks that they deserve to be paid twice as much.

The Broncos and Elway are smart to not spend like drunken sailors.

Brock Osweiler is not an elite player.

CJ Anderson is not an elite player.

Malik Jackson is not an elite player.

Danny Trevathan is not an elite player.

Congrats to Elway for recognizing that these guys are JAGs.
Sorry, but this is dumb (at least pertaining to CJA).

There's a huge grey area between elite and JAG. Asking the theoretical question of if Anderson is worth an elite contract or even worth the contract Miami signed him to is pointless. The question you should be asking is "is Anderson good enough to warrant a 2nd round tender and the accompanying salary?" At this point the answer seems to be a resounding yes. Someone just paid him $4.5M/year and you could've had him for $2.5M. Not a crippling mistake, but a mistake all the same. Denver will end up wasting an early draft pick to gamble on a rookie at that important position or they'll pay a veteran (equal or lesser talent to CJA) greater than or equal to $2.5M to fill his role. So... congrats to Elway on that.

 
Sorry, but this is dumb (at least pertaining to CJA).

There's a huge grey area between elite and JAG. Asking the theoretical question of if Anderson is worth an elite contract or even worth the contract Miami signed him to is pointless. The question you should be asking is "is Anderson good enough to warrant a 2nd round tender and the accompanying salary?" At this point the answer seems to be a resounding yes. Someone just paid him $4.5M/year and you could've had him for $2.5M. Not a crippling mistake, but a mistake all the same. Denver will end up wasting an early draft pick to gamble on a rookie at that important position or they'll pay a veteran (equal or lesser talent to CJA) greater than or equal to $2.5M to fill his role. So... congrats to Elway on that.
Let's not forget not all teams need to overspend in FA to get productivity out of the RB position. In fact, that's a model that's falling out of favor. MIA is behind the curve, sure, but Denver seems way ahead of it. CJA isn't worth $10 million, yet MIA is the one mismanaging money and draft picks, so it's no surprise they are the only ones willing to fork over $18 million. 

 
Let's not forget not all teams need to overspend in FA to get productivity out of the RB position. In fact, that's a model that's falling out of favor. MIA is behind the curve, sure, but Denver seems way ahead of it. CJA isn't worth $10 million, yet MIA is the one mismanaging money and draft picks, so it's no surprise they are the only ones willing to fork over $18 million. 
I agree about not overspending on RB, but like I said, the question isn't if CJA is worth Miami's contract or if he is elite. It is if he is worth $2.5M. If Denver ends up spending an early draft pick or more money on an inferior talent, then not tendering CJA can be seen as nothing but a mistake.

 
I agree about not overspending on RB, but like I said, the question isn't if CJA is worth Miami's contract or if he is elite. It is if he is worth $2.5M. If Denver ends up spending an early draft pick or more money on an inferior talent, then not tendering CJA can be seen as nothing but a mistake.
I'm higher on CJA as a player than most and while CJA is closer to a JAG than a Hall of Famer, he is still a pretty damn good back.   Lets not act like the Dolphins gave the guy a ton of money.. He got less AAV than a 30 year old Forte with a ton of miles.  His newest deal represents about 3% of salary cap. 

Here's where I'm at on Denver matching deal.. I don't think there is anyway they could trade for Kaep and keep CJA, and I also don't think Denver would drag this on longer than needed.  Meaning that if they knew they were cutting ties they'd of done it by now.   They are waiting for the Kaep domino to fall, and my gut tells me they match if Kaep goes to the Browns or stats in SF.  

 
I agree about not overspending on RB, but like I said, the question isn't if CJA is worth Miami's contract or if he is elite. It is if he is worth $2.5M. If Denver ends up spending an early draft pick or more money on an inferior talent, then not tendering CJA can be seen as nothing but a mistake.
Of course. And all I'm saying is even if he's *worth* a certain amount or more based on another team's evaluation, doesn't mean Denver's evaluation is wrong. They've seen this kid up close for years. They know his strengths and weaknesses better than anyone. And if they felt a $2.4 million tender was too much, that's can't be ignored. Maybe their read on him is wrong and/or the value/worth of FA and draft options is wrong. But I give them benefit of knowing more than anyone about the kid. 

And it makes MIA look downright silly. 

 
Of course. And all I'm saying is even if he's *worth* a certain amount or more based on another team's evaluation, doesn't mean Denver's evaluation is wrong. They've seen this kid up close for years. They know his strengths and weaknesses better than anyone. And if they felt a $2.4 million tender was too much, that's can't be ignored. Maybe their read on him is wrong and/or the value/worth of FA and draft options is wrong. But I give them benefit of knowing more than anyone about the kid. 

And it makes MIA look downright silly. 
Elway was absolutely trying to lowball CJA, he thought that the market would be a lot cooler on him and that he'd be able to save about $1M in cap savings.  The fact they haven't said no tells you that they don't really feel he is not worth 2.4M

 
Elway was absolutely trying to lowball CJA, he thought that the market would be a lot cooler on him and that he'd be able to save about $1M in cap savings.  The fact they haven't said no tells you that they don't really feel he is not worth 2.4M
Not really. A lot of gamesmanship in this stuff, and there is no reason to clarify MIA's FA/cap situation for them earlier than they need to. 

There is no chance in hell Denver matches. None. But they have no incentive right now to announce. 

 
Not really. A lot of gamesmanship in this stuff, and there is no reason to clarify MIA's FA/cap situation for them earlier than they need to. 

There is no chance in hell Denver matches. None. But they have no incentive right now to announce. 
It wasn't gamesmanship, Elway was trying to squeeze a little cap relief out of the situation and got burned.  Elway would love a redo on this.

 
I think not placing a 2nd round tender was a mistake because I'd love to have the dolphins second round right about now...would allow a trade-in from 31 in pursuit of a QB.

That being said, it also comes down to who the Broncos have in-house today.  Maybe they feel good with Juwan Thompson and Kapari Bibbs, both of whom looked good in pre-season and spot duty.

 
I think not placing a 2nd round tender was a mistake because I'd love to have the dolphins second round right about now...would allow a trade-in from 31 in pursuit of a QB.

That being said, it also comes down to who the Broncos have in-house today.  Maybe they feel good with Juwan Thompson and Kapari Bibbs, both of whom looked good in pre-season and spot duty.
That's the thing, it's highly unlikely any team would have even offered him a deal if he was a 2nd round tender. 

 
tone1oc said:
That's the thing, it's highly unlikely any team would have even offered him a deal if he was a 2nd round tender. 
Exactly. So the fact that they didn't pony up $0.9 million more to basically ensure he stays put is telling. It tells me that Denver, or at least Elway, never had any intention of retaining C.J.'s services.

 
Exactly. So the fact that they didn't pony up $0.9 million more to basically ensure he stays put is telling. It tells me that Denver, or at least Elway, never had any intention of retaining C.J.'s services.
That's certainly one way to look at it. :homer:

 
That's certainly one way to look at it. :homer:
It's not a homer perspective. It's common sense. He had to know other teams would be interested in a bell cow RB who has shown flashes and just helped Denver win a Super Bowl when all they have to do was beat $1.7 million per year with no risk of losing draft picks. Elway had to know C.J. would have suitors. He's not an idiot. He also knew that no one was likely to give up a second rounder for C.J. Put it all together, Elway didn't want C.J. back. Homerism? Um, no. Common sense.

 
It's not a homer perspective. It's common sense. He had to know other teams would be interested in a bell cow RB who has shown flashes and just helped Denver win a Super Bowl when all they have to do was beat $1.7 million per year with no risk of losing draft picks. Elway had to know C.J. would have suitors. He's not an idiot. He also knew that no one was likely to give up a second rounder for C.J. Put it all together, Elway didn't want C.J. back. Homerism? Um, no. Common sense.
He was trying to save $0.9M in a cap strapped year and got burned.   He thought that with the abundance of talent in FA nobody would offer him more than a few million and now it will cost them a few extra million if....

@MikeKlis on CJ Anderson: "This Tuesday, I'm leaning towards that they will match, but it will cost them dearly." #Broncos
Broncos will acquire Kaep and lose CJA, or not acquire Kaep and keep CJA

 
He was trying to save $0.9M in a cap strapped year and got burned.   He thought that with the abundance of talent in FA nobody would offer him more than a few million and now it will cost them a few extra million if....

Broncos will acquire Kaep and lose CJA, or not acquire Kaep and keep CJA
We can agree to disagree on his thought process, but nothing in my take on the situation is based on me being a homer. It's merely a different opinion on a very weird and seemingly idiotic series of events.

 
We can agree to disagree on his thought process, but nothing in my take on the situation is based on me being a homer. It's merely a different opinion on a very weird and seemingly idiotic series of events.
Apologies for the homer post, trying to be kinda funny.  You have conceded that he is a bell-cow type back that helped lead them to a super bowl... I just can't imagine Elway thinking that's not worth 2M or ~1.5% of cap?  Elway has shown to be a master of cap acrobatics, unfortunately he fell on his face on this one.  

If he didn't want CJA, I'm sure he'd of rejected the offer sheet by now.  

 
Apologies for the homer post, trying to be kinda funny.  You have conceded that he is a bell-cow type back that helped lead them to a super bowl... I just can't imagine Elway thinking that's not worth 2M or ~1.5% of cap?  Elway has shown to be a master of cap acrobatics, unfortunately he fell on his face on this one.  

If he didn't want CJA, I'm sure he'd of rejected the offer sheet by now.  
No worries. I think we both agree Elway screwed the pooch. I just can't imagine him risking exactly this situation to save a mere 0.9 million if he really wanted to keep C.J. But like you said, it's possible he severely underestimated the market, as he did for Malik and Brock. We'll see what happens. 

 
Apologies for the homer post, trying to be kinda funny.  You have conceded that he is a bell-cow type back that helped lead them to a super bowl... I just can't imagine Elway thinking that's not worth 2M or ~1.5% of cap?  Elway has shown to be a master of cap acrobatics, unfortunately he fell on his face on this one.  

If he didn't want CJA, I'm sure he'd of rejected the offer sheet by now.  
No, teams in all sports routinely take the entire time they can because it puts the other team in a bind.  If you're going to match, you do it at the last moment so the original team now lost out of 5 days of FA when they had their money all tied up.  The only reason you wouldn't wait until the last moment is if you liked the other organization... Gase did just come from Denver, right?

 
No, teams in all sports routinely take the entire time they can because it puts the other team in a bind.  If you're going to match, you do it at the last moment so the original team now lost out of 5 days of FA when they had their money all tied up.  The only reason you wouldn't wait until the last moment is if you liked the other organization... Gase did just come from Denver, right?
I agree that there's not much to read in them not declining the offer after 1 day, but I also don't believe that if Elway truly was finished with CJA by not tendering (as was being argued) that he'd drag this out.   Especially if they are still trying to land a starting QB.   I could be naive on that, we'll see. 

ETA: The Bills were not inclined to drag out the Hogan tender..


 
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Peyton retires and four big free agents departed.  That would seem to clear a bunch of money from the books so I am shocked to see that Elway still had two big contracts left to renegotiate. 

Could it be that the reason why he low-balled CJ is beause he had to pack away money for Brock and these guys?

Mike Klis ‏@MikeKlis  5h5 hours ago
Attention now turns to @DeMarcusWare, and @RyanClady. Will they continue the mass exodus out of town? #9news #9sports
Klis says he believes the team still might resign CJ Anderson, he might believe a bunch of money, now is back on the table due to the fact Brock left.

Mike Klis ‏@MikeKlis  6h6 hours ago
Broncos badly misread market on C.J. @cjandersonb22 with low tender. Still, don't be surprised if Broncos match MIA offer. #9news #9sports
Even with DeMarcus Ware and Ryan Clady contracts pending, it seems that if Elway wants CJ back that there would be cap available.  (Disclaimer, I don't know the Broncos cap situation.)  With so many free agents leaving Denver, there would have to be cap space freed up to allow a better offer for CJ Anderson so Klis might wind up being correct.  We'll see.  

 
cobalt_27 said:
Not really. A lot of gamesmanship in this stuff, and there is no reason to clarify MIA's FA/cap situation for them earlier than they need to. 

There is no chance in hell Denver matches. None. But they have no incentive right now to announce. 
Buffalo renounced Hogan's rights right away - but then again Rex Ryan and Billy Belichick are good buddies.

 
Here's a thought:

Elway wanted to keep Oswailer so badly, he wanted to save every penny for him. They offered him contract, that didn't work out.

Now, they are left without Oswailer and you can't make that tender a second round tender, which he most likely would do if he knew Oswailer was going to Texans. 

 
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