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CJ Anderson (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JetMaxx
- Start date
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Did anybody really expect McCaffrey to have 250+ carries? Not me.
the lone star
Footballguy
Same. Honestly. I don't like it when a RB carries it that much. Can run a RB straight into the ground.
the lone star
Footballguy
Good for CMC's longevity for sure. Good for his value in PPR leagues too.
Can you unpack how’s it’s good for Mccaffrey’s value in ppr? Or any league for that matter? It’s not like McCaffrey was in line to lose passing down work to another RB. Now they bring in CJA on a one year deal to take some early down work, which is work that McCaffrey could have picked up a portion of had their only other option been Artis-Payne. No matter how you cut it, McCaffrey is in line for less work than he was 24 hours ago. I still think he’ll have a great year in ppr, but this signing isn’t good for his value.
the lone star
Footballguy
He can play out wide more now. I think he's better there than he is out of the backfield, but he's good as a receiver in both regards.
Lighter load = more longevity. Heavier load = increased chance of losing him to long-term injury.
Getting CJ means CMC's role will be similar to what it was last year, which was fine for me. With expected sophomore improvement, I like it.
He can stay fresher and more efficient hopefully.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
He's not a traditional RB, and Carolina didn't draft him as such. Running inside is not his prowess. He is a really good more versatile version of Danny Woodhead or Darren Sproles. He wasn't destined for work horse duties.
If his value has changed, I'd like to know what it used to be.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The signing makes a lot of sense for the Pathers. CJ Anderson is an upgrade over 30 year old Stewart from last season.
Its only a 1 year deal. I don't really see it affecting McCaffrey's opportunity much.
The opportunity problem still has a lot to do with Cam calling his own number 139 rushing attempts last season 132 in 2015 (he was hurt and missed a game plus change in 2016).
Stewart and Cam combined for 337 rushing attempts last season, just not much left for McCaffrey with that happening.
The Panthers have averaged 490 rushing attempts over the last 3 seasons. So McCaffeys rushing attempts are likely 150 or so in 2018 and not much more.
Thats not where most of his value will come from anyways. It comes from the receptions. I can still see McCaffreys opportunity increasing slightly from his rookie season under this situation but not that much.113 targets is good for a WR much less a RB.
Its still about 250 combined opportunities though and half of those are premium ones.
Its only a 1 year deal. I don't really see it affecting McCaffrey's opportunity much.
The opportunity problem still has a lot to do with Cam calling his own number 139 rushing attempts last season 132 in 2015 (he was hurt and missed a game plus change in 2016).
Stewart and Cam combined for 337 rushing attempts last season, just not much left for McCaffrey with that happening.
The Panthers have averaged 490 rushing attempts over the last 3 seasons. So McCaffeys rushing attempts are likely 150 or so in 2018 and not much more.
Thats not where most of his value will come from anyways. It comes from the receptions. I can still see McCaffreys opportunity increasing slightly from his rookie season under this situation but not that much.113 targets is good for a WR much less a RB.
Its still about 250 combined opportunities though and half of those are premium ones.
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the lone star
Footballguy
pantherclub
Footballguy
Fantasy wise I think this is perfect for CJ. He should be a low end rb1 with a bunch of potential if the oline gets figured out and if Norv opens up the passing game. Even without the "ifs" he should still get enough to be a weekly starter
jeaton6
Footballguy
pantherclub
Footballguy
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
IMO people are underestimating Anderson's impact on CMC's receptions. He's a very good receiving back. McCaffrey will still catch the large majority of RB passes, but I've seen 16-game totals of 11 and 15 for Anderson from respected fortune tellers and I'd be surprised if they don't throw it to him a bit more than that. ~RB30-35 feels about right.
He can hopefully prove his worth in the passing game (much better receiver than given credit for here), but even if he doubles the targets Stewart got last year, he still probably won't get enough targets to be a fantasy RB1.
13+ carries a game, including goal line (Stewart averaged 1 goal line carry per game), should be enough to push him past RB3 numbers... assuming he can improve upon Stewart's 3.4 ypc. Stewart was running on fumes last year and he averaged 13.2 carries and 1 target per game. CJA should be able to turn that into at least 850 yards, 7 TDs, 10 receptions, 75 yards. That's probably low-end RB2, but it assumes he earns no more opportunities than a 30 yo Stewart. In the first half of the season, they actually leaned on Stewart more (110 carries, 11 targets). I'm assuming the lack of productivity is what caused the drop off. If CJA can earn those touches, he should be a safe bet for solid RB2 numbers. The Carolina offense is going to be MUCH better than the 2017 Denver offense.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Thats a good post and I think you illustrated how Anderson can surpass Stewarts mediocre numbers. Rivera traditionally wants to pound the ball and I think CJ gives him that option and will be given every opportunity with at least 15 carries a game if not more to start. Adding that to this offense IMO is solid rb2 numbers creeping into 1 territory. Again I think he will be a weekly starter from the jump.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
This is about what I'm thinking as well, but with 20 catches for 160 yards. ~1000 yards, 20 catches, 6-7 TDs. 10-11ppg. Which, now that I look, is RB27-RB31 -- so a bit better than my RB30-35 above. Wouldn't want to count on him as a RB2, but would feel great if he's my RB3.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Now that he has a new team, what's his dynasty PPR value?
I think he could easily creep into RB2 territory, but I agree that I would not want to go into the season with him as my RB2. He's a good candidate for fantasy RBBC. Just grab a bunch of these types and play the matchups. I'll target him cheaply in best ball leagues, too.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Based on his landing spot, I’d move him into the thick of the RB2 grouping - right amongst Ingram, McKinnon, & McCoy. I get the feeling this is a tryout year for Anderson, and if CAR likes what they see that they’ll sign him as part of a long term RBBC. And I’m also confident Anderson will give them exactly what they are looking for in that respect with his performance.
ETA - and by long term, I’m thinking a front loaded 4 yr contract where eating the last year wouldn’t be particularly painful for CAR.
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jeaton6
Footballguy
Cam is still the Goal line back on that team. The TDs sound high for a guy who hasn’t scored more than 5 in the past 3 years. I could buy into 8-900 total yards and 5 TDS with 15-20 catches but as others have said that’s probably more like high to mid RB3 territory in PPR. I also think Stewart’s fall off was due to inefficiency Plus McCaffrey becoming more efficient and growing throughout the year. You say low end 2, I say high end 3, splitting hairs.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
No, I responded to a question about dynasty value, which I quoted.
I think Ingram’s 2016 is a great comp for him in CAR in terms of workload. Maybe a shade less production but he’s also a year younger.
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NeverEnough
Footballguy
jeaton6
Footballguy
Gotcha. I’m not seeing it. Certainly value-wise I don’t see anyone that would be willing to move McCoy, McKinnon, Ingram for Anderson. I mean he could ultimately deliver what we pretty much know McCoy and Ingram will deliver and what we think McKinnon will deliver. While McKinnon is a bit unknown his situation (and the other 2 as well) >>> CJA.
Jacksonke1
Footballguy
The good news for CMC is that CJ seems to wave himself off the field for a breather more than any RB I can think of
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Yeah, there are some unknowns in there, including how Anderson fits in CAR. But I guess I have some confidence in his ability to fill that role given what we’ve seen in his career.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't see how Anderson can be a low end RB1 losing passing down work to CMc and (some) goal-line work to Cam.
ETA: "some" to be clear that Anderson will still get goal-line carries but Cam's presence does hurt
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Stewart, while running on fumes to the tune of 3.4 ypc, scored 6 TDs last year. Carolina is a much better offense than Denver. Quoting CJA's rushing TDs in the past 3 years is clearly disingenuous since he scored 5 TDs on 152 rushes in 2014 and 4 TDs on 110 rushes in 2015 and we're projecting over 200 rushes in 2018. Better offense, more carries, more goal line carries = more TDs.
It's also kind of a tired statement to say Newton is the goal line back when Stewart had 15 carries inside the 5 yard line in 15 games while Newton had only 5 carries inside the 5 in 16 games. Will Newton poach a few TDs? Certainly. But it's not like we're projecting 12 rushing TDs for CJA. Newton's vulturing was already taken into account when projecting 7 TDs for CJA.
This is a great example of why internet eyeball tests are useless. He didn't finish as PFF's RB6 for 2017 because he looked like he was running in mud.
jeaton6
Footballguy
We? I’m not saying he will have 200 carries. I find it unlikely to happen.
Also, I think quoting CJs performance over the past few years is WAY more valid than quoting Stewart’s raw stats from last year and saying CJ will do better. Especially given Stewart scored 5 TDS in a 3 game stretch (how many of those 15 carries inside the 5 were in those 3 games?) including a 3 TD game against Minny. Without that TD streak the “tired” Stewart would have scored 1 (He had 1 TD through his first 10 games, > 140 carries. I’d project 160 carries for 640 and 18 for 130. 5 Total TDs.
Quite convenient of you to leave out the 3 Rushing TDs on 245 carries CJ had last year.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
jeaton6
Footballguy
If the advanced PFF stats meant that much to real NFL GMs then he’d stil be with Denver.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Its easy. Rivera wants to run the ball. CJ will get at least 15 carries a game with goal line work. Cam being a vulture at the gl is overstated. He normally gets around 6 a year which leaves plenty of opportunity for others, plus they consistently say they are trying to take the load off of him. Add in a revamped passing attack and I think its easily conceivable that CJ is a low end 1. Most definitely a 2 and "if" some things break right he could have a great year. He should be a "must start" on carries and opportunities alone at the beginning of the year just on general principle.
Stewart was absolute manure last year and he still had a (relatively speaking) decent year.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I don’t get this at all. He’s never been sub-4.0 in any year in his career, and when he plays in an offense that has some diversity to help the running game he has run at a 4.7 ypc clip. But he goes to a team with a better offense, better O line, and enough help from other facets and he is suddenly going to drop 15% in productivity below his worst year?
I hope Freeman works out, but frankly fans like you deserve Booker in your backfield.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Obviously it's not impossible but it's highly unlikely that Anderson is one of the top 12 RBs next year. Even losing "only" 6 TDs to Cam and passing down work to CmC is not a recipe for top 12 production. But sure he could be a solid RB2, but I would have concerns if he was my RB2 heading into the season.
Really? You think he's going to get fewer carries per game than a washed up Stewart? That's a boggling take. Are you a CAP truther or something??
I'll say it one more time... Carolina offense > Denver offense. Using CJA's rushing TDs from the past 3 years on a crap offense in which he was injured for 2 of those 3 years means very little. If Stewart got 6 TDs while averaging 3.4 ypc, it seems quite reasonable to project 7 TDs under the same workload for CJA. It's really not that tricky to comprehend.
I don't really care if Stewart scored 5 TDs in a 3 game stretch. That is an extremely weak point. These things tend to average out over a 16 game season.
I genuinely don't. I just think it is a dumb take to say he looked like he was running in mud. CJA is a guy I'll gladly roster if I can get him cheaply, but I'm not breaking the bank for him. He's an underrated talent (I'm sure this thread is littered with plodder comments) but his situation isn't worth reaching for.
This short-sighted comment ignores the salary cap and the fact that it doesn't have to mean something to "NFL GMs"... just to one GM (Elway). Clearly it didn't mean enough to outweigh the salary cap implications. And I'm not even here to say that's wrong. Him being a quality RB and cutting him being a beneficial salary cap solution for the Broncos are not mutually exclusive.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
CalBear
Footballguy
Top-12 production ain't much. #12 in 2018 was Dion Lewis (896/6 TD rushing, 214/3 TD passing). Carlos Hyde (938/8, 350/0) was #11.
In 2018 Anderson got 62% of the RB carries and 38% of the RB targets in Denver. Stewart got 58% of the RB carries and 11% of the RB targets in Carolina. His running workload is likely to be similar to what it was in Denver, with more TD opportunities, which means he should improve on 1007/3. He'll probably see fewer targets, but he only got 224/1 from receiving anyway. If he can do 1200/8 combined he'll be top-12.
The bigger reason Denver let him go was his age and $4.5 million salary...plus the depth of the rookie RB class.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well sure. In reality top 12 production ends up being based on which back remained mostly healthy throughout the year but I can easily find 12 RBs I'd project to be more productive than Anderson. We can project 1,200 total yards and 8 TDs for probably 15-17 RBs realistically - maybe even more if I started listing them.
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CalBear
Footballguy
Yes, sure. I would say that if Anderson stays mostly healthy, he is relatively likely (>50% chance) to get to 1200/8, which is very likely (>80% chance) to be top-12. Your statement was that it's "highly unlikely" for Anderson to be top-12, and I don't think that's accurate.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'll amend my statement to say that it's unlikely Anderson will be a RB1 on a points per game basis.
If he stays healthy all year and 5-10 other RBs that I expect to be better do not it is then likely he will be top 12.
Frank Black
Footballguy
As a Panthers homer, this signing doesn't excite me at all...whatsoever.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
