CJ vs. AD - Who should be #1 and why? (1 Viewer)

[NoFBinLA]

Was reading this thread -

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...316275&st=0

- and didn't wanna crumb it up with a side discussion.

So according to the zealots leagues (and more than a few non-zealots I cruised through via links) - AD is bar none, far and away the concensus #1 pick for rookie drafts.

Which is interesting since both rookie drafts I have been in so far had CJ going first. One was PPR, one was not. One was a 12 team league, one was a 10.

And that got me thinking - why is this happening?

What are people's thoughts on AD vs CJ? This isn't a 'help me draft my pick plz' question, I'm curious how people percieve the data in threads like the one above when I've heard so much about how studly CJ is and how high people are on him vs worries about AD's durability and how he's cutting carries with taylor for the first year.

Personally - I think if you're in a PPR league, CJ would be the pick HOWEVER, if RBs are scarce (as they can be in Dynasty leagues over 10 teams with large rosters or practice squads) AD is a no brainer. I realize the high bust rate on WRs and I realize the craptacular streak of WRs Detriot has picked of late.

What are people's thoughts on these guys and their future? Why is AD getting selected so routinely as #1? And do we really feel that his value and upside for the future is that much greater?

Toss your .02 in, I'm curious what people think.

 

[EBF]

Was reading this thread -

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...316275&st=0

- and didn't wanna crumb it up with a side discussion.

So according to the zealots leagues (and more than a few non-zealots I cruised through via links) - AD is bar none, far and away the concensus #1 pick for rookie drafts.

Which is interesting since both rookie drafts I have been in so far had CJ going first. One was PPR, one was not. One was a 12 team league, one was a 10.

And that got me thinking - why is this happening?

What are people's thoughts on AD vs CJ? This isn't a 'help me draft my pick plz' question, I'm curious how people percieve the data in threads like the one above when I've heard so much about how studly CJ is and how high people are on him vs worries about AD's durability and how he's cutting carries with taylor for the first year.

Personally - I think if you're in a PPR league, CJ would be the pick HOWEVER, if RBs are scarce (as they can be in Dynasty leagues over 10 teams with large rosters or practice squads) AD is a no brainer. I realize the high bust rate on WRs and I realize the craptacular streak of WRs Detriot has picked of late.

What are people's thoughts on these guys and their future? Why is AD getting selected so routinely as #1? And do we really feel that his value and upside for the future is that much greater?

Toss your .02 in, I'm curious what people think.

As always, format is critical. In certain leagues, CJ shouldn't even go before Marshawn Lynch. IMO, it's a big mistake to take Johnson over Lynch in RB-heavy non-PPR formats like Zealots or Misfits. WRs just don't score enough points in those leagues to be seriously considered over starting RBs. That said, I think Calvin Johnson is a better prospect than Adrian Peterson. He's a much more rare talent and he doesn't come with any of the serious durability concerns that plague AD. At the very least, he should be a top 20 type FF WR for the forseeable future.

Does that mean he's the better FF pick? Not at all. RBs are more scarce than WRs. Furthermore, top RBs typically carry more value than top WRs (even in PPR). So while Peterson has more flaws than Johnson and is a bigger bust risk, he's still probably the more valuable commodity in most leagues.

Consider that even the best WRs in the NFL (Chad Johnson, Torry Holt, Larry Fitzgerald) are typically drafted after the top 8-15 RBs. So even if Calvin becomes the next Moss, he still won't be worth as much as the best RBs.

Also, WRs are always easier to acquire in trades than RBs. You can get a top young player like Santonio Holmes or Mark Clayton for a reasonable price. Laurence Maroney and Reggie Bush? Not so much.

 

[Chop_Block]

Well, in general, my thought is that RBs are more valuable than a WR 9 times out of 10.

As much as I like Cj in that offence, I think you can pick up any number of young WRs that will serve very well later, whereas the dropoff for RBs from AD to Lynch and BEYOND is huge.

You asked for it -- that's my thoughts.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Calvin Johnson owner. I made an offer to move up from 1.2 to 1.1 in the H/A league to take Calvin Johnson even though the owner with the 1.1 I was sure would take Peterson anyways...that is how much I wanted Calvin Johnson. He is likely a guy you plug in and don't have to worry about for the next 10 years. That is pretty unlikely from most RB who have short careers.

No one has had the kind of measurables that Calvin Johnson has really had coming out of college. Add in a Mike Martz offense and that artificial indoor playing surface...he should be able to fly all over the field. I even expect to break the trend of rookie WR and have very respectable numbers year 1.

 

[NoFBinLA]

Calvin Johnson owner. I made an offer to move up from 1.2 to 1.1 in the H/A league to take Calvin Johnson even though the owner with the 1.1 I was sure would take Peterson anyways...that is how much I wanted Calvin Johnson. He is likely a guy you plug in and don't have to worry about for the next 10 years. That is pretty unlikely from most RB who have short careers. No one has had the kind of measurables that Calvin Johnson has really had coming out of college. Add in a Mike Martz offense and that artificial indoor playing surface...he should be able to fly all over the field. I even expect to break the trend of rookie WR and have very respectable numbers year 1.

First thanks for the responses.MOP: That's what I'm saying -- I keep hearing baout how ridiculously good he is - so much so that I really thought the gap between he and AD (who I still thought would be #1, frankly) would be closer.But EBF makes a good point in that quite often due to scarcity within a Dynasty league and the availability of vet WRs, you could make the arguement that as good as he may be, you'll find a solid WR more frequently than a solid RB. That's certainly the tendancy for most Dynasty Leagues, and the overall opinion I think towards FF in general -- when in doubt go RB -- they score more consistently and the lack of a stud is very hard to overcome.I suppose also, not only is format important - but need as well -- hey if you have solid RBs but your WRs are the suxxor, well CJ makes a helluva lotta sense. If you have needs both places, you might swing either way.Another question might be -- other than the bust factor any rookie faces and the feeling that WRs are easier to trade for and come by, is there anything making people think twice about CJ?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Calvin Johnson owner. I made an offer to move up from 1.2 to 1.1 in the H/A league to take Calvin Johnson even though the owner with the 1.1 I was sure would take Peterson anyways...that is how much I wanted Calvin Johnson. He is likely a guy you plug in and don't have to worry about for the next 10 years. That is pretty unlikely from most RB who have short careers. No one has had the kind of measurables that Calvin Johnson has really had coming out of college. Add in a Mike Martz offense and that artificial indoor playing surface...he should be able to fly all over the field. I even expect to break the trend of rookie WR and have very respectable numbers year 1.

First thanks for the responses.MOP: That's what I'm saying -- I keep hearing baout how ridiculously good he is - so much so that I really thought the gap between he and AD (who I still thought would be #1, frankly) would be closer.But EBF makes a good point in that quite often due to scarcity within a Dynasty league and the availability of vet WRs, you could make the arguement that as good as he may be, you'll find a solid WR more frequently than a solid RB. That's certainly the tendancy for most Dynasty Leagues, and the overall opinion I think towards FF in general -- when in doubt go RB -- they score more consistently and the lack of a stud is very hard to overcome.I suppose also, not only is format important - but need as well -- hey if you have solid RBs but your WRs are the suxxor, well CJ makes a helluva lotta sense. If you have needs both places, you might swing either way.Another question might be -- other than the bust factor any rookie faces and the feeling that WRs are easier to trade for and come by, is there anything making people think twice about CJ?

I also think its painful to sit on rookie WR and wait for them to develop...Calvin Johnson might very well shatter that mold so I think he will be far ahead in total points scored come years 3 and 4 when other WRs will be hitting their strides.I pounded Jeter23 in the H/A 2 league for drafting 5 rookies out of his roster of 10...none of them named Calvin Johnson either...seemed silly to me. He will have to wait at least 2-3 full off seasons to see any kind of return from all those roster spots. I think it depends on your roster too. If you have a lot of veteran WR already than maybe you invest in one of the many WRs that were available in the mid 1st round. Neither is a bad pick but I think we will be talking about Calvin Johnson long after Adrian Peterson makes his mark.

 

[Rev]

I have the 1.1 and 1.3 in my league and I expect Johnson to fall to me at the 1.3 (if I don't decide to take him at 1.1). After watching AD's college film, it's tough to pass on him. He is a clear step from Lynch and will be a difference maker in the Vikings backfield. Lots of people forget about the talented O Line in Minnesota because their receivers are no-namers, but Peterson really could explode if he can unseat Chester by seasons end.

But the reality is that Peterson and Johnson will take 2 years to hit their stride, IMO. Both come into situations with very solid competition for touches and both come into systems that are struggling to generate offense. Either way, you can expect to wait on each player.

 

[Pots]

I know not this AD you speak of. There's an Adrian Peterson who should be #1, but not sure why the title doesn't list him.

 

[DBC Tweeker]

I know not this AD you speak of. There's an Adrian Peterson who should be #1, but not sure why the title doesn't list him.

AD = "All Day", Adrian Peterson's nickname (in the press too).

 

[TBLCommish]

I know not this AD you speak of. There's an Adrian Peterson who should be #1, but not sure why the title doesn't list him.

AD = "All Day", Adrian Peterson's nickname (in the press too).

I hate when ppl call him "AP" glad to see REAL fans using the correct nickname!

 

[Jedimaster21]

I have the 1.1 and 1.3 in my league and I expect Johnson to fall to me at the 1.3 (if I don't decide to take him at 1.1). After watching AD's college film, it's tough to pass on him. He is a clear step from Lynch and will be a difference maker in the Vikings backfield. Lots of people forget about the talented O Line in Minnesota because their receivers are no-namers, but Peterson really could explode if he can unseat Chester by seasons end. But the reality is that Peterson and Johnson will take 2 years to hit their stride, IMO. Both come into situations with very solid competition for touches and both come into systems that are struggling to generate offense. Either way, you can expect to wait on each player.

Peterson is too talented to sit behind Taylor for even one week. There is no way that an owner will have to wait that long for him to see significant touches. He will be the starter week 1, and get 300 carries this year if healthy.

 

[Rev]

I have the 1.1 and 1.3 in my league and I expect Johnson to fall to me at the 1.3 (if I don't decide to take him at 1.1). After watching AD's college film, it's tough to pass on him. He is a clear step from Lynch and will be a difference maker in the Vikings backfield. Lots of people forget about the talented O Line in Minnesota because their receivers are no-namers, but Peterson really could explode if he can unseat Chester by seasons end. But the reality is that Peterson and Johnson will take 2 years to hit their stride, IMO. Both come into situations with very solid competition for touches and both come into systems that are struggling to generate offense. Either way, you can expect to wait on each player.

Peterson is too talented to sit behind Taylor for even one week. There is no way that an owner will have to wait that long for him to see significant touches. He will be the starter week 1, and get 300 carries this year if healthy.

Maybe, but Taylor did have 1200 yards in that trainwreck offense last year. No way that the coaching staff just throws AD/AP into it and benches Taylor. They will be some combination of a committee with Taylor having more touches for the first half and probably the reverse for the second half. IMO, it's not realistic to predict Taylor to be nothing more than AP's towel boy, especially considering Peterson's injury history. I see a gradual handoff in the cards.

 

[NoFBinLA]

I have the 1.1 and 1.3 in my league and I expect Johnson to fall to me at the 1.3 (if I don't decide to take him at 1.1). After watching AD's college film, it's tough to pass on him. He is a clear step from Lynch and will be a difference maker in the Vikings backfield. Lots of people forget about the talented O Line in Minnesota because their receivers are no-namers, but Peterson really could explode if he can unseat Chester by seasons end. But the reality is that Peterson and Johnson will take 2 years to hit their stride, IMO. Both come into situations with very solid competition for touches and both come into systems that are struggling to generate offense. Either way, you can expect to wait on each player.

Peterson is too talented to sit behind Taylor for even one week. There is no way that an owner will have to wait that long for him to see significant touches. He will be the starter week 1, and get 300 carries this year if healthy.

Maybe, but Taylor did have 1200 yards in that trainwreck offense last year. No way that the coaching staff just throws AD/AP into it and benches Taylor. They will be some combination of a committee with Taylor having more touches for the first half and probably the reverse for the second half. IMO, it's not realistic to predict Taylor to be nothing more than AP's towel boy, especially considering Peterson's injury history. I see a gradual handoff in the cards.

Which then begs the question - if you DON'T have Taylor, is CJ a better value, given the possibility of a split time situation?On the other hand, the news that Taylor and AD were both in the backfield at practice means the value could be there for AD as well, thogh not initially as great as CJ may have from the getgo.

 

[k2isabeast]

depends on scoring. with exception of LT2 our top 5 WR's = our top 5 RB's.. with the 1.1 in my PPR league Ive been torn myself with this issue. Im leaning towards CJ2 mainly because my only other WR being kept is Wayne. Although I agree with the point about the top RB> top WR (perceived value) the flipside is in a keeper/dynasty league top WR's last 2-3x longer giving you more overall production.

 

[EBF]

I have the 1.1 and 1.3 in my league and I expect Johnson to fall to me at the 1.3 (if I don't decide to take him at 1.1). After watching AD's college film, it's tough to pass on him. He is a clear step from Lynch and will be a difference maker in the Vikings backfield. Lots of people forget about the talented O Line in Minnesota because their receivers are no-namers, but Peterson really could explode if he can unseat Chester by seasons end. But the reality is that Peterson and Johnson will take 2 years to hit their stride, IMO. Both come into situations with very solid competition for touches and both come into systems that are struggling to generate offense. Either way, you can expect to wait on each player.

Peterson is too talented to sit behind Taylor for even one week. There is no way that an owner will have to wait that long for him to see significant touches. He will be the starter week 1, and get 300 carries this year if healthy.

Maybe, but Taylor did have 1200 yards in that trainwreck offense last year. No way that the coaching staff just throws AD/AP into it and benches Taylor. They will be some combination of a committee with Taylor having more touches for the first half and probably the reverse for the second half. IMO, it's not realistic to predict Taylor to be nothing more than AP's towel boy, especially considering Peterson's injury history. I see a gradual handoff in the cards.

Disagree. The talent gap between these two is immense. It's much closer to a Caddy/Pittman than it is a Bush/McAllister.

 

[Rev]

I have the 1.1 and 1.3 in my league and I expect Johnson to fall to me at the 1.3 (if I don't decide to take him at 1.1). After watching AD's college film, it's tough to pass on him. He is a clear step from Lynch and will be a difference maker in the Vikings backfield. Lots of people forget about the talented O Line in Minnesota because their receivers are no-namers, but Peterson really could explode if he can unseat Chester by seasons end. But the reality is that Peterson and Johnson will take 2 years to hit their stride, IMO. Both come into situations with very solid competition for touches and both come into systems that are struggling to generate offense. Either way, you can expect to wait on each player.

Peterson is too talented to sit behind Taylor for even one week. There is no way that an owner will have to wait that long for him to see significant touches. He will be the starter week 1, and get 300 carries this year if healthy.

Maybe, but Taylor did have 1200 yards in that trainwreck offense last year. No way that the coaching staff just throws AD/AP into it and benches Taylor. They will be some combination of a committee with Taylor having more touches for the first half and probably the reverse for the second half. IMO, it's not realistic to predict Taylor to be nothing more than AP's towel boy, especially considering Peterson's injury history. I see a gradual handoff in the cards.

Disagree. The talent gap between these two is immense. It's much closer to a Caddy/Pittman than it is a Bush/McAllister.

Caddy has never had a 1000 year season.

 

[Rev]

I have the 1.1 and 1.3 in my league and I expect Johnson to fall to me at the 1.3 (if I don't decide to take him at 1.1). After watching AD's college film, it's tough to pass on him. He is a clear step from Lynch and will be a difference maker in the Vikings backfield. Lots of people forget about the talented O Line in Minnesota because their receivers are no-namers, but Peterson really could explode if he can unseat Chester by seasons end. But the reality is that Peterson and Johnson will take 2 years to hit their stride, IMO. Both come into situations with very solid competition for touches and both come into systems that are struggling to generate offense. Either way, you can expect to wait on each player.

Peterson is too talented to sit behind Taylor for even one week. There is no way that an owner will have to wait that long for him to see significant touches. He will be the starter week 1, and get 300 carries this year if healthy.

Maybe, but Taylor did have 1200 yards in that trainwreck offense last year. No way that the coaching staff just throws AD/AP into it and benches Taylor. They will be some combination of a committee with Taylor having more touches for the first half and probably the reverse for the second half. IMO, it's not realistic to predict Taylor to be nothing more than AP's towel boy, especially considering Peterson's injury history. I see a gradual handoff in the cards.

Disagree. The talent gap between these two is immense. It's much closer to a Caddy/Pittman than it is a Bush/McAllister.

Pittman has never broken 1000 yards and never had the value Chester has had.

 

[noneother]

I know not this AD you speak of. There's an Adrian Peterson who should be #1, but not sure why the title doesn't list him.

AD = "All Day", Adrian Peterson's nickname (in the press too).

I hate when ppl call him "AP" glad to see REAL fans using the correct nickname!

i have tried labeling him ADP, or AD Peterson, for those who don't know All Day.. he's been AD since high school

 

[duaneok66]

I'd take CJ unless I was desperate at the WR position . . . you're talking about a guy destined to be at the top of the WR ladder vs a guy who may be on the injury list half the time . . .

 

[EBF]

I have the 1.1 and 1.3 in my league and I expect Johnson to fall to me at the 1.3 (if I don't decide to take him at 1.1). After watching AD's college film, it's tough to pass on him. He is a clear step from Lynch and will be a difference maker in the Vikings backfield. Lots of people forget about the talented O Line in Minnesota because their receivers are no-namers, but Peterson really could explode if he can unseat Chester by seasons end. But the reality is that Peterson and Johnson will take 2 years to hit their stride, IMO. Both come into situations with very solid competition for touches and both come into systems that are struggling to generate offense. Either way, you can expect to wait on each player.

Peterson is too talented to sit behind Taylor for even one week. There is no way that an owner will have to wait that long for him to see significant touches. He will be the starter week 1, and get 300 carries this year if healthy.

Maybe, but Taylor did have 1200 yards in that trainwreck offense last year. No way that the coaching staff just throws AD/AP into it and benches Taylor. They will be some combination of a committee with Taylor having more touches for the first half and probably the reverse for the second half. IMO, it's not realistic to predict Taylor to be nothing more than AP's towel boy, especially considering Peterson's injury history. I see a gradual handoff in the cards.

Disagree. The talent gap between these two is immense. It's much closer to a Caddy/Pittman than it is a Bush/McAllister.

Caddy has never had a 1000 year season.

False.

 

[EBF]

I have the 1.1 and 1.3 in my league and I expect Johnson to fall to me at the 1.3 (if I don't decide to take him at 1.1). After watching AD's college film, it's tough to pass on him. He is a clear step from Lynch and will be a difference maker in the Vikings backfield. Lots of people forget about the talented O Line in Minnesota because their receivers are no-namers, but Peterson really could explode if he can unseat Chester by seasons end. But the reality is that Peterson and Johnson will take 2 years to hit their stride, IMO. Both come into situations with very solid competition for touches and both come into systems that are struggling to generate offense. Either way, you can expect to wait on each player.

Peterson is too talented to sit behind Taylor for even one week. There is no way that an owner will have to wait that long for him to see significant touches. He will be the starter week 1, and get 300 carries this year if healthy.

Maybe, but Taylor did have 1200 yards in that trainwreck offense last year. No way that the coaching staff just throws AD/AP into it and benches Taylor. They will be some combination of a committee with Taylor having more touches for the first half and probably the reverse for the second half. IMO, it's not realistic to predict Taylor to be nothing more than AP's towel boy, especially considering Peterson's injury history. I see a gradual handoff in the cards.

Disagree. The talent gap between these two is immense. It's much closer to a Caddy/Pittman than it is a Bush/McAllister.

Pittman has never broken 1000 yards and never had the value Chester has had.

It's not all about the numbers. My point was that there was a big talent gap between Caddy and Pittman, which resulted in Pittman riding the pine. Likewise, there's a huge talent gap between Peterson and Chester. Chester will be relegated to change of pace duties by the second month of the season, IMO.

 

[Penguin]

I gotta go with ADP at 1.01, even in a PPR league. If I'm decimated at WR and loaded at RB I'm sure I could trade Peterson for a top 10ish WR and a late 1st/early 2nd rd pick and pick up another top rookie WR to go along with the vet.

So I could take CJ at 1.01 or take ADP and deal him for something like M.Colston/J.Walker/Housh & D.Jarrett/T.Ginn

I'd go CJ over M.Lynch in a PPR and I'm actually thinking about it in a non-ppr as I have several top 10-15 RB's already rostered and I like the security of CJ for the next 10 or so years versus Lynch whom I have serious doubts about.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Was reading this thread -

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...316275&st=0

- and didn't wanna crumb it up with a side discussion.

So according to the zealots leagues (and more than a few non-zealots I cruised through via links) - AD is bar none, far and away the concensus #1 pick for rookie drafts.

Which is interesting since both rookie drafts I have been in so far had CJ going first. One was PPR, one was not. One was a 12 team league, one was a 10.

And that got me thinking - why is this happening?

What are people's thoughts on AD vs CJ? This isn't a 'help me draft my pick plz' question, I'm curious how people percieve the data in threads like the one above when I've heard so much about how studly CJ is and how high people are on him vs worries about AD's durability and how he's cutting carries with taylor for the first year.

Personally - I think if you're in a PPR league, CJ would be the pick HOWEVER, if RBs are scarce (as they can be in Dynasty leagues over 10 teams with large rosters or practice squads) AD is a no brainer. I realize the high bust rate on WRs and I realize the craptacular streak of WRs Detriot has picked of late.

What are people's thoughts on these guys and their future? Why is AD getting selected so routinely as #1? And do we really feel that his value and upside for the future is that much greater?

Toss your .02 in, I'm curious what people think.

As always, format is critical. In certain leagues, CJ shouldn't even go before Marshawn Lynch. IMO, it's a big mistake to take Johnson over Lynch in RB-heavy non-PPR formats like Zealots or Misfits. WRs just don't score enough points in those leagues to be seriously considered over starting RBs. That said, I think Calvin Johnson is a better prospect than Adrian Peterson. He's a much more rare talent and he doesn't come with any of the serious durability concerns that plague AD. At the very least, he should be a top 20 type FF WR for the forseeable future.

Does that mean he's the better FF pick? Not at all. RBs are more scarce than WRs. Furthermore, top RBs typically carry more value than top WRs (even in PPR). So while Peterson has more flaws than Johnson and is a bigger bust risk, he's still probably the more valuable commodity in most leagues.

Consider that even the best WRs in the NFL (Chad Johnson, Torry Holt, Larry Fitzgerald) are typically drafted after the top 8-15 RBs. So even if Calvin becomes the next Moss, he still won't be worth as much as the best RBs.

Also, WRs are always easier to acquire in trades than RBs. You can get a top young player like Santonio Holmes or Mark Clayton for a reasonable price. Laurence Maroney and Reggie Bush? Not so much.

i generally agree that as good a prospect as AD is, CJ probably more bullet-proof... also that peterson carries bigger injury questions, & despite that should probably still be the #1 pick in many league & scoring formats...i don't agree that johnson is a much more rare talent... imo, AD is a pretty special talent in his own right... don't want to put too fine a point on it, so i might concede that CJ is more rare, but its definitely not a substantial gulf that separates them...

always appreciate your take, though, EBF, even when i don't agree (not too often)...

* i'm pretty sure we are seeing the same thing when it comes to johnson's off the charts physical & athletic gifts, so the difference must be in differences in how we view peterson...

in a lot of ways he is a dead ringer for dickerson to me... while not a one to one correspondence physique-wise with bo jackson, ADs burst, suddenness & instant acceleration is for me reminiscent of bo... needless to say i am pretty high on him... i'm not in the glorified chris brown camp (as i know your not from reading your take elsewhere)...

so that is pretty rare... but like i said, i might concede the rarity edge, just contest the degree... CJ may well be unprecedented (i think he is), in terms of his unique combo of size, speed, athleticism, skills, intangibles, etc.

guys like moss, TO, harrison may have many of these attributes that go into the mosaic or constellation of traits we call WR greatness... he is the only one i've ever seen like this that seemingly has them all... the descriptive term "total package" is so overused as to be reduced to almost meaninglesness, but he is the genuine article, and is shockingly practically with no discernible flaw...

as bloom said, his handle should be "The Prototype"...

 

[Stealthycat]

you don't let stud RB's pass you by in a draft

 

[turkishkamel]

I have the 1.1 and 1.3 in my league and I expect Johnson to fall to me at the 1.3 (if I don't decide to take him at 1.1). After watching AD's college film, it's tough to pass on him. He is a clear step from Lynch and will be a difference maker in the Vikings backfield. Lots of people forget about the talented O Line in Minnesota because their receivers are no-namers, but Peterson really could explode if he can unseat Chester by seasons end.

But the reality is that Peterson and Johnson will take 2 years to hit their stride, IMO. Both come into situations with very solid competition for touches and both come into systems that are struggling to generate offense. Either way, you can expect to wait on each player.

Peterson is too talented to sit behind Taylor for even one week. There is no way that an owner will have to wait that long for him to see significant touches. He will be the starter week 1, and get 300 carries this year if healthy.

Maybe, but Taylor did have 1200 yards in that trainwreck offense last year. No way that the coaching staff just throws AD/AP into it and benches Taylor. They will be some combination of a committee with Taylor having more touches for the first half and probably the reverse for the second half. IMO, it's not realistic to predict Taylor to be nothing more than AP's towel boy, especially considering Peterson's injury history. I see a gradual handoff in the cards.

Disagree. The talent gap between these two is immense. It's much closer to a Caddy/Pittman than it is a Bush/McAllister.

Caddy has never had a 1000 year season.

2005: 290/1178/4.1/6tds

 

[Rev]

2005: 290/1178/4.1/6tds

Fixed. I meant Pittman. Sorry for the oops.

 

[FUBAR]

Pittman has never broken 1000 yards and never had the value Chester has had.

Pittman has 5 straight years over 1,000 yards.

 

[Rev]

Pittman has never broken 1000 yards and never had the value Chester has had.

Pittman has 5 straight years over 1,000 yards.

The following are Pittman's rushing totals since his rookie season:

1998 Arizona Cardinals 91

1999 Arizona Cardinals 289

2000 Arizona Cardinals 719

2001 Arizona Cardinals 846

2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 718

2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 751

2004 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 926

2005 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 436

2006 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 245

Time to reholster that BS sign, cowboy.

 

[dbcooper]

Pittman has never broken 1000 yards and never had the value Chester has had.

Pittman has 5 straight years over 1,000 yards.

The following are Pittman's rushing totals since his rookie season:

1998 Arizona Cardinals 91

1999 Arizona Cardinals 289

2000 Arizona Cardinals 719

2001 Arizona Cardinals 846

2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 718

2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 751

2004 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 926

2005 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 436

2006 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 245

Time to reholster that BS sign, cowboy.

|		  Rushing		 |		Receiving		|+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards	Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1998 ari |  15 |	29	 91	3.1	0 |	 0	  0   0.0	0 || 1999 ari |  12 |	64	289	4.5	2 |	16	196  12.2	0 || 2000 ari |  16 |   184	719	3.9	4 |	73	579   7.9	2 || 2001 ari |  15 |   241	846	3.5	5 |	42	264   6.3	0 || 2002 tam |  16 |   204	718	3.5	1 |	59	477   8.1	0 || 2003 tam |  16 |   187	751	4.0	0 |	75	597   8.0	2 || 2004 tam |  13 |   219	926	4.2	7 |	41	391   9.5	3 || 2005 tam |  16 |	70	436	6.2	1 |	36	300   8.3	1 || 2006 tam |  16 |	50	245	4.9	1 |	47	405   8.6	0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   | 135 |  1248   5021	4.0   21 |   389   3209   8.2	8 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

Between 2000 and 2004 he had over 1000 total yards each year.

 

[lions327]

I had the 1.1 in a Contract Keeper ppr league(I could only keep either player 4yrs) and I think both players are great prospects, BUT

I chose Peterson and here's why.

I do not think CJ will have the breakout year this season, just because it's a huge adjustment from the college to the NFL even for a player like CJ. The NFL is faster and DB's will be alot better than CJ is familar with he will make the adjustment, but it will take time.

Roy Willams is still going to be the #1 imo. I do not believe Roy is just going to jump to back seat and suddenly accept a lesser role and year 1 he wont.

Kitna/Stanton is a bigger issue than I think is being talked about...The Lions will want to play Stanton sooner than later and that means breaking a rookie qb in for at least a season, so if CJ has to adjust this season and then break Stanton in.....I don't like that...My personal believe is that the Lions will also want to avoid that situation as well,so I look for Stanton late in the year UNLESS the Lions are playoff bound...LOL....Okay sorry about that I had to compose myself after that last comment.

Running backs adjust better and Peterson has a great line to run behind especially on the left side with Hutch and Mckinney. I also like the division the Vikings are in for rushing. T. Jackson is a question mark and will mean 8 or 9 man fronts till he proves himself and the Vikings WR are youngsters, but I think talented enough to pull some heat away by the end off the year. Chester will get most his carries begining of the season and Peterson should be taking over by the end of this season and full go by next season.

Peterson injuries does worry me a little, however they are nothing real major and might be a little over hyped.

Peterson gets the Lions, that alone is a huge plus.

Don't assume Stanton is going to play this season. His entire way of playing QB, from mechanics to all fundamentals to how he holds the ball, is being torn down by Martz and pretty much rebuilding from the ground up. I think it's highly unlikely he plays any this year regardless of the Lions record. Also, Marinelli has made it a point to change the losers mentality here, and the best chance to win week in and week out is with Kitna playing. He will play every game, same as he did last year unless he plays really bad.

 

[-OZ-]

Pittman has never broken 1000 yards and never had the value Chester has had.

Pittman has 5 straight years over 1,000 yards.

The following are Pittman's rushing totals since his rookie season:

1998 Arizona Cardinals 91

1999 Arizona Cardinals 289

2000 Arizona Cardinals 719

2001 Arizona Cardinals 846

2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 718

2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 751

2004 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 926

2005 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 436

2006 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 245

Time to reholster that BS sign, cowboy.

|		  Rushing		 |		Receiving		|+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards	Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1998 ari |  15 |	29	 91	3.1	0 |	 0	  0   0.0	0 || 1999 ari |  12 |	64	289	4.5	2 |	16	196  12.2	0 || 2000 ari |  16 |   184	719	3.9	4 |	73	579   7.9	2 || 2001 ari |  15 |   241	846	3.5	5 |	42	264   6.3	0 || 2002 tam |  16 |   204	718	3.5	1 |	59	477   8.1	0 || 2003 tam |  16 |   187	751	4.0	0 |	75	597   8.0	2 || 2004 tam |  13 |   219	926	4.2	7 |	41	391   9.5	3 || 2005 tam |  16 |	70	436	6.2	1 |	36	300   8.3	1 || 2006 tam |  16 |	50	245	4.9	1 |	47	405   8.6	0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   | 135 |  1248   5021	4.0   21 |   389   3209   8.2	8 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

Between 2000 and 2004 he had over 1000 total yards each year.

's. except for Rev, who appears to forget that a yard gained through a screen pass is every bit as valuable as through running. That was one thing Pittman always had going for him. In PPR, he was a value pick because people tend to overlook this. Which might make Lynch more valuable than we think right now.

 

[Eagles09]

Even more reason to hold off on CJ at some point this season or next Stanton will be the starting qb and it takes at least 1 season for rookie qb to understand the NFL. CJ will have to get aquainted to the NFL and then turn around and break in a qb.

I disagree. CJ's a talented enough player where it won't matter who is throwing him the ball **cough** Reggie Ball **cough** I mean seriously. If thats a reason to "hold off" on him you need to come back with a better reason than that.

I'm not saying CJ is going to be the next Jerry Rice, but to say in a DYNASTY LEAGUE you would hold off on him because a new QB could be throwing to him is nuts to me...

 

[lions327]

I'm not saying CJ is going to be the next Jerry Rice, but to say in a DYNASTY LEAGUE you would hold off on him because a new QB could be throwing to him is nuts to me...



I am not saying take Calvin over AP, but the reasons I have seen to pass on Calvin, I don't agree with. I also will not be surprised if Kitna plays this year AND next.

 

[Rev]

Pittman has never broken 1000 yards and never had the value Chester has had.

Pittman has 5 straight years over 1,000 yards.

The following are Pittman's rushing totals since his rookie season:

1998 Arizona Cardinals 91

1999 Arizona Cardinals 289

2000 Arizona Cardinals 719

2001 Arizona Cardinals 846

2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 718

2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 751

2004 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 926

2005 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 436

2006 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 245

Time to reholster that BS sign, cowboy.

| Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1998 ari | 15 | 29 91 3.1 0 | 0 0 0.0 0 || 1999 ari | 12 | 64 289 4.5 2 | 16 196 12.2 0 || 2000 ari | 16 | 184 719 3.9 4 | 73 579 7.9 2 || 2001 ari | 15 | 241 846 3.5 5 | 42 264 6.3 0 || 2002 tam | 16 | 204 718 3.5 1 | 59 477 8.1 0 || 2003 tam | 16 | 187 751 4.0 0 | 75 597 8.0 2 || 2004 tam | 13 | 219 926 4.2 7 | 41 391 9.5 3 || 2005 tam | 16 | 70 436 6.2 1 | 36 300 8.3 1 || 2006 tam | 16 | 50 245 4.9 1 | 47 405 8.6 0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 135 | 1248 5021 4.0 21 | 389 3209 8.2 8 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Between 2000 and 2004 he had over 1000 total yards each year.

's. except for Rev, who appears to forget that a yard gained through a screen pass is every bit as valuable as through running. That was one thing Pittman always had going for him. In PPR, he was a value pick because people tend to overlook this. Which might make Lynch more valuable than we think right now.

Unless the US Congress voted to make every fantasy league uniform last night, not every league awards 1 point per every 10 yards for both receiving and rushing. Many leagues give 1 for 20 receiving yards or simply award a player for rushing 100 total yards in a single game.

 

[Stealthycat]

1.1 Peterson ( I took him after trading for Chester )

1.2 Lynch

1.3 - owners is trying to trade out of Calvin for a RB

Thats where our draft is right now. RB's are still the most valuable FF commodity around

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Pittman has never broken 1000 yards and never had the value Chester has had.

Pittman has 5 straight years over 1,000 yards.

The following are Pittman's rushing totals since his rookie season:

1998 Arizona Cardinals 91

1999 Arizona Cardinals 289

2000 Arizona Cardinals 719

2001 Arizona Cardinals 846

2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 718

2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 751

2004 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 926

2005 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 436

2006 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 245

Time to reholster that BS sign, cowboy.

| Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1998 ari | 15 | 29 91 3.1 0 | 0 0 0.0 0 || 1999 ari | 12 | 64 289 4.5 2 | 16 196 12.2 0 || 2000 ari | 16 | 184 719 3.9 4 | 73 579 7.9 2 || 2001 ari | 15 | 241 846 3.5 5 | 42 264 6.3 0 || 2002 tam | 16 | 204 718 3.5 1 | 59 477 8.1 0 || 2003 tam | 16 | 187 751 4.0 0 | 75 597 8.0 2 || 2004 tam | 13 | 219 926 4.2 7 | 41 391 9.5 3 || 2005 tam | 16 | 70 436 6.2 1 | 36 300 8.3 1 || 2006 tam | 16 | 50 245 4.9 1 | 47 405 8.6 0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 135 | 1248 5021 4.0 21 | 389 3209 8.2 8 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+Between 2000 and 2004 he had over 1000 total yards each year.

's. except for Rev, who appears to forget that a yard gained through a screen pass is every bit as valuable as through running. That was one thing Pittman always had going for him. In PPR, he was a value pick because people tend to overlook this. Which might make Lynch more valuable than we think right now.

Unless the US Congress voted to make every fantasy league uniform last night, not every league awards 1 point per every 10 yards for both receiving and rushing. Many leagues give 1 for 20 receiving yards or simply award a player for rushing 100 total yards in a single game.

Rush yds and receivng yds being equal is far, far, far and away the norm. In a discussion like this a certain degree of normalcy must be assumed, otherwise this whole thread is pointless because both ADP and CJ pale in comparison to Kenny Irons in my league where Bengals backup RBs get 300 bonus pts every week .

 

[brakeyawself]

1.1 Peterson ( I took him after trading for Chester )1.2 Lynch1.3 - owners is trying to trade out of Calvin for a RBThats where our draft is right now. RB's are still the most valuable FF commodity around

Thats how ive been noticing drafts go too. Totally understand the runningback theory. Heres the thing I dont get though. Pretty much any starting RB will outproduce a good portion of the WR save the top ten or so right? Generally speaking at least. So then, doesnt it make more sense to just grab any starting RB you can manage and then want really good WR who also score at a RB level. What im saying is. If most RB score a lot, but are generally bigger risks as far as injury, predicted production, and rotation, then why not get WR that will score as much as or more than most RB, and get a lesser RB who scores high points no matter what? Aside from the top 2 or 3 RB. The rest of the RB generally fall in point totals a bit to a middle group, where any of ten RB or so have a chance of ending the season. At least thats what ive been observing in some of my leagues. Its similar to QB's almost except QBs are deeper. I think the unpredictability factor of RB makes them so important. You need depth because they are a larger risk. So, im saying draft Calvin and just get any pair of starting RB, and their backups. Calvin will quite possibly outperform a good majority of the RB in fantasy ppr leagues and possibly even in a lot of non ppr's.

 

[SSOG]

Unless the US Congress voted to make every fantasy league uniform last night, not every league awards 1 point per every 10 yards for both receiving and rushing. Many leagues give 1 for 20 receiving yards or simply award a player for rushing 100 total yards in a single game.

I have *NEVER* seen a league that rewarded receiving yards LESS HEAVILY than rushing yards. I mean, what possible reason could a league have to do that? Are they under the impression that WRs are overvalued and RBs are UNDERvalued in current scoring formats? Why not just do away with WRs altogether (and QBs and TEs and PKs and Defenses, while you're at it), and just make a league full of RBs?Regardless, until the NFL decides to do away with conventional statistics and just keep track of how many fantasy points a player scored in your league, Pittman has 5 straight 1,000 yard seasons.

 

[Christo]

Unless the US Congress voted to make every fantasy league uniform last night, not every league awards 1 point per every 10 yards for both receiving and rushing. Many leagues give 1 for 20 receiving yards or simply award a player for rushing 100 total yards in a single game.

I have *NEVER* seen a league that rewarded receiving yards LESS HEAVILY than rushing yards.

I play in a league that only gives passing yards to QBs, rushing yards to RBs and receiving yards to WRs. And one time I played in a league that awarded 1 point for 10 yards rushing and one point for 15 yards receiving

I mean, what possible reason could a league have to do that?

Variety

 

[SSOG]

The ACC is not the NFL!!!! You actually think he's coming in and running right past NFL Db's your gonna be disappointed. You have had what Moss come in right away and dominate??? Can you name another WR that has walked in and dominated??? I'm not saying CJ would be the issue...Stanton is also going to have to adjust to the NFL and the Lions have a god awful line. You need to look at the DB's CJ went against...UNC??? DUKE??? WAKE??? ND??? UGA???FSU???Do you honestly think that NFL DB's will be that out talented by CJ??? The Ball comparision is a joke...Please. I just do not see Martz holding his new toy (Stanton) out for 2 years and I do not see Stanton coming in and taking the reigns without a "hiccup". I guess in a perfect world that could happen, I think History points to different outcome...Just a opinion like yours different.

If your willing to wait 3 Years then CJ is the main option and if you need instant production AP is your pick.

Is 10/207/2 a dominant first game? Is 101/1377/8 (4th place fantasy WR) a dominant first season? Because if so, then yes, I can name a WR that has "walked in and dominated"...

 

[-OZ-]

The ACC is not the NFL!!!! You actually think he's coming in and running right past NFL Db's your gonna be disappointed. You have had what Moss come in right away and dominate??? Can you name another WR that has walked in and dominated??? I'm not saying CJ would be the issue...Stanton is also going to have to adjust to the NFL and the Lions have a god awful line. You need to look at the DB's CJ went against...UNC??? DUKE??? WAKE??? ND??? UGA???FSU???Do you honestly think that NFL DB's will be that out talented by CJ??? The Ball comparision is a joke...Please. I just do not see Martz holding his new toy (Stanton) out for 2 years and I do not see Stanton coming in and taking the reigns without a "hiccup". I guess in a perfect world that could happen, I think History points to different outcome...Just a opinion like yours different.

If your willing to wait 3 Years then CJ is the main option and if you need instant production AP is your pick.

Is 10/207/2 a dominant first game? Is 101/1377/8 (4th place fantasy WR) a dominant first season? Because if so, then yes, I can name a WR that has "walked in and dominated"...

70/1038/8; 6/163/2 in a game - maybe not "domninant", but impressiveYes, it's rare. But it does happen.

Furrey's 1st year as a WR: 98/1086/6, I'd use this as a target for CJ. I think he can do better.

BTW, you're entitled to your opinion, and most of the time it's correct here, but CJ is a special talent.

 

[SSOG]

The ACC is not the NFL!!!! You actually think he's coming in and running right past NFL Db's your gonna be disappointed. You have had what Moss come in right away and dominate??? Can you name another WR that has walked in and dominated??? I'm not saying CJ would be the issue...Stanton is also going to have to adjust to the NFL and the Lions have a god awful line. You need to look at the DB's CJ went against...UNC??? DUKE??? WAKE??? ND??? UGA???FSU???Do you honestly think that NFL DB's will be that out talented by CJ??? The Ball comparision is a joke...Please. I just do not see Martz holding his new toy (Stanton) out for 2 years and I do not see Stanton coming in and taking the reigns without a "hiccup". I guess in a perfect world that could happen, I think History points to different outcome...Just a opinion like yours different.

If your willing to wait 3 Years then CJ is the main option and if you need instant production AP is your pick.

Is 10/207/2 a dominant first game? Is 101/1377/8 (4th place fantasy WR) a dominant first season? Because if so, then yes, I can name a WR that has "walked in and dominated"...

Okay...CJ is the way to go then. I guess the history of the NFL is wrong in this case and CJ is the way to go over AP. Do not wory about any adjustment to the NFL or the level of competion adjustment. I also think Stanton will come right in after Kitna throws 10 plus td's to CJ the next 2 seasons and by year 3 with a new QB he should be in the 15 to 20 td range with another #1 one wr named Roy on the opposite side. My thought is the Lions should have fixed the line by then and rb problem as well and be in the Super Bowl by CJ's year 3 no doubt...I stand corrected.AP will also have a adjustment period, however my opinion is that is over by the end of the year and because he's on the better team with the better offensive line not to mention a swarming defense to support him(better field postion. ). I think Chester is a worry and injury is also a worry. I don't see a HUGE falloff between either player. I just think for DYNASTY Peterson is the better selection ...OR at least I did think that till just now.

Did I say that CJ should be taken over AP, or that the Lions would be in the superbowl in his third season? In fact, did I say anything at all about either Calvin Johnson or Adrian Peterson? Or anything at all, for that matter?Please don't put words in my mouth. You asked if I could name another WR who "walked in and dominated", and I said yes, I could. Don't ask a question if you don't want someone to answer it.

 

[Dhizz]

The ACC is not the NFL!!!! You actually think he's coming in and running right past NFL Db's your gonna be disappointed. You have had what Moss come in right away and dominate??? Can you name another WR that has walked in and dominated??? I'm not saying CJ would be the issue...Stanton is also going to have to adjust to the NFL and the Lions have a god awful line. You need to look at the DB's CJ went against...UNC??? DUKE??? WAKE??? ND??? UGA???FSU???Do you honestly think that NFL DB's will be that out talented by CJ??? The Ball comparision is a joke...Please. I just do not see Martz holding his new toy (Stanton) out for 2 years and I do not see Stanton coming in and taking the reigns without a "hiccup". I guess in a perfect world that could happen, I think History points to different outcome...Just a opinion like yours different.

If your willing to wait 3 Years then CJ is the main option and if you need instant production AP is your pick.

Is 10/207/2 a dominant first game? Is 101/1377/8 (4th place fantasy WR) a dominant first season? Because if so, then yes, I can name a WR that has "walked in and dominated"...

Okay...CJ is the way to go then. I guess the history of the NFL is wrong in this case and CJ is the way to go over AP. Do not wory about any adjustment to the NFL or the level of competion adjustment. I also think Stanton will come right in after Kitna throws 10 plus td's to CJ the next 2 seasons and by year 3 with a new QB he should be in the 15 to 20 td range with another #1 one wr named Roy on the opposite side. My thought is the Lions should have fixed the line by then and rb problem as well and be in the Super Bowl by CJ's year 3 no doubt...I stand corrected.AP will also have a adjustment period, however my opinion is that is over by the end of the year and because he's on the better team with the better offensive line not to mention a swarming defense to support him(better field postion. ). I think Chester is a worry and injury is also a worry. I don't see a HUGE falloff between either player. I just think for DYNASTY Peterson is the better selection ...OR at least I did think that till just now.

Someone is on the rag. Buckeye fans are hilarious.