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CLE WR Odell Beckham, Jr. - I feel like we are sleeping on him (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Payne
- Start date
Even on a low passing volume offense I’m taking the obvious number one option all day at his ADP (65-70).
Maybe. Was talking about this the other day. For whatever reason, he's fallen out of favor. Maybe too much so.
We currently have him as WR31 in our Rankings. https://www.footballguys.com/rankings?pos=wr&type=redraft&scoring=ppr&excludedstaffers=&leagueid=Select+League. You can click on the little dialog box next to his name and see all the ranker's comments.
Boston
Footballguy
His last four years are:
25-302-3
77-1052-6
74-1035-4
23-319-3
I think he still has a lot of gas in the tank if he can stay on the field but the question is when you say sleeping on him what type of #'s do you project? If anything I think his name value has kept up his value when you factor in it has been four seasons since he was a real fantasy difference-maker.
25-302-3
77-1052-6
74-1035-4
23-319-3
I think he still has a lot of gas in the tank if he can stay on the field but the question is when you say sleeping on him what type of #'s do you project? If anything I think his name value has kept up his value when you factor in it has been four seasons since he was a real fantasy difference-maker.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
The Browns are not a run first teamBrowns will be a run first team and Mayfield is a limiter - if healthy, I don't expect to see Beckham much more than 78-1100-6 .
Of course given my track record for projections, you can now safely mark him down for 96-1320-13.
3 hour lunch
Footballguy
The top 20 WR or so are solid but you could make a case for him anytime after that. He literally hasn’t done much of anything since 2016 though. When you think of him vs the guys around him (Golladay, Claypool, Aiyuk) it’s hard to justify taking him.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
He's under 30 and still has elite skills. But he's coming off the ACL injury and his fantasy PPG has declined every year he's been in the league except for 2018 when it ticked up slightly after signing that record deal. So is he the guy that still can average 20+ ppg or is he the guy that's 12 ppg with the Browns? That's the difference between top 5 and top 40. Landry seems like the better value based on ADP.
Agree with Jeudy 100%. Antonio Brown has competition in TB, but upside based on how he finished last year. Still not sold on Waddle/Tuat and their oline. I Williams if he's healthy.
Mayfield did better without OBJ last year.
TripItUp
Footballguy
A lot of analytics show OBJ has sllowed down including Matt Harmon's reception perception.
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TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Truebluey
Footballguy
Meaning? Stefanski's philosophy seems to me to be establish the run at every opportunity and grind the other team into submission.
Riffraff
Footballguy
Something I had previously posted in one of my leagues for banter/conversation:
The last 4 years worth of non-PPR stats = 64 games...
Mike Williams
Year Yards TDs
2020 757 5
2019 1003 2
2018 692 11
2017 95 0
Total 2547 18 Fantasy Points: 362.7
151 receptions
ADP (August 2021 - Mizelle): Over-all: 114 Position: 52
Odell Beckham
Year Yards TDs
2020 391 4
2019 1045 4
2018 1071 6
2017 310 3
Total 2817 17 Fantasy Points: 383.7
199 receptions
ADP (August 2021 - Mizelle): Over-all: 78 Position: 38
---------
Difference: 21 more fantasy points over 4 years (5.25 a year) in our league. 0.3 fantasy points a week.
Should one pay a 2-3 round difference in pricetag for essentially an extra 52 yards for the year?
They are essentially the same player. Except: one is considered to be on a run heavy offense (Beckham) and the other is considered to be on a pass friendly offense (Williams).
Not saying Mike Williams should be drafted higher, but Beckham should be closer in ADP. Is it time to finally admit that Beckham is not going back to the Giants and Eli?
The last 4 years worth of non-PPR stats = 64 games...
Mike Williams
Year Yards TDs
2020 757 5
2019 1003 2
2018 692 11
2017 95 0
Total 2547 18 Fantasy Points: 362.7
151 receptions
ADP (August 2021 - Mizelle): Over-all: 114 Position: 52
Odell Beckham
Year Yards TDs
2020 391 4
2019 1045 4
2018 1071 6
2017 310 3
Total 2817 17 Fantasy Points: 383.7
199 receptions
ADP (August 2021 - Mizelle): Over-all: 78 Position: 38
---------
Difference: 21 more fantasy points over 4 years (5.25 a year) in our league. 0.3 fantasy points a week.
Should one pay a 2-3 round difference in pricetag for essentially an extra 52 yards for the year?
They are essentially the same player. Except: one is considered to be on a run heavy offense (Beckham) and the other is considered to be on a pass friendly offense (Williams).
Not saying Mike Williams should be drafted higher, but Beckham should be closer in ADP. Is it time to finally admit that Beckham is not going back to the Giants and Eli?
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candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
- last 2 days ADP of 6.02 @ FFPC, that's a little too high for me, I like him better in the 7/8th conversation.
TripItUp
Footballguy
tombonneau
Footballguy
I'm waiting for him to complete his Moss career arc and land with another team for a couple of all pro seasons. I could see him in a year paired up with one of the new young QBs, maybe down in Jax or Chicago.
I think with proven lack of chemistry with Baker + ACL recovery, 2021 is gonna be a bit of a wash, low-end WR2 season. But would not shock me to see him in WR1 overall discussion in '22-24 stretch depending on where he lands. Talent is still there. Just needs to be woken up again like with Moss.
I think with proven lack of chemistry with Baker + ACL recovery, 2021 is gonna be a bit of a wash, low-end WR2 season. But would not shock me to see him in WR1 overall discussion in '22-24 stretch depending on where he lands. Talent is still there. Just needs to be woken up again like with Moss.
Sam Quentin
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
On a per game basis, for WR that played in at least 30 games over the past 3 seasons, OBJ ranks 18th in PPG at 10.00 vs. Williams 31st at 7.85 (0 ppr). Beckham has scored an extra 27% per week when he has played.
In PPR leagues, OBJ has averaged 14.97 ppg vs. 10.96 for Williams. That's an extra 37% in points scored per game. Certainly Beckham has missed a lot of time, but when he's played he's been better than Williams.
tombonneau
Footballguy
Actually, it's funny that you mention MW as some sort of comp, as I could see OBJ signing with the LAC and having a real revival with Herbert. MW can then go to Cleveland. 
MAC_32
Footballguy
That's the narrative, but it isn't reality. I think there will be a market correction sometime this year, but it's certainly something to exploit this draft season. At least with Baker. Who among his weaponry will benefit most relative to acquisition price is more unknown, but I think that risk is baked into their current prices while plausible upside is not.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You can say whatever you want but the reality is that the Browns were 4th in the league behind only Baltimore, New England and Tennessee in run/pass ratio.
matuski
Footballguy
I mean maybe a couple teams run more?
Maybe a couple few teams pass less?
Ravens don't count in either - their QB has 150+ carries a year because he can't throw.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I am aware of the data. That's why I think it's something that can be exploited this draft season. I think the context of last season explains how this team ended up where they did, but it's not their intended course of action in 2021. We saw this in the latter half of 2020 when they weren't dealing with waves of covid and I think we'll see a continuation of that this season - throw to score then run to win. My greatest concern about this passing offense is this team gets out to a lead and with an improved defense the aerial attack is more susceptible to being grounded. I think that'd be something worth taking more seriously if the players in question were priced differently, but since they're not right now it isn't a factor.
Narrative: Cleveland has a significantly better passing game than Baltimore
Reality: Both Mayfield and Jackson threw 26 TDs last season, and Jackson had 14 more passing TDs than Mayfield in 2019.
matuski
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He's a great upside WR3.
I believe some of his limitations might be due to his QB. Mayfield simply may not be that great.
But that said, I am absolutely looking to draft him as an upside WR3 who could easily put up WR2 numbers. I believe his days of being a WR1 are long past, and that there are risks as well as upside. He's a mercurial dude. What day is he going to wake up deciding he doesn't love football? Or a teammate? Or a coach?
I'm not sure folks are sleeping on him or just sick of his schtick over the last few years. The upside has always been there. The health, both physically & mentally, has not.
I was remembering a story from after he left the Giants so I searched for it, and sure enough here it is. He became "too much of a PITA" for the Giants.
https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/03/13/odell-beckham-jr-browns-giants-trade-front-office-distractions-nfl#:~:text=Became 'Too Much of a,--' Before Trade to Browns&text="[Beckham] had become too,eventually it would get worse."
I believe some of his limitations might be due to his QB. Mayfield simply may not be that great.
But that said, I am absolutely looking to draft him as an upside WR3 who could easily put up WR2 numbers. I believe his days of being a WR1 are long past, and that there are risks as well as upside. He's a mercurial dude. What day is he going to wake up deciding he doesn't love football? Or a teammate? Or a coach?
I'm not sure folks are sleeping on him or just sick of his schtick over the last few years. The upside has always been there. The health, both physically & mentally, has not.
I was remembering a story from after he left the Giants so I searched for it, and sure enough here it is. He became "too much of a PITA" for the Giants.
https://www.si.com/nfl/2019/03/13/odell-beckham-jr-browns-giants-trade-front-office-distractions-nfl#:~:text=Became 'Too Much of a,--' Before Trade to Browns&text="[Beckham] had become too,eventually it would get worse."
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Toast. #1 candidate on the do not draft list IMO. Are you guys nuts? every year we go through this and every year people get fooled by this guy. I can't handle another 'obj the fantasy killer 202x' thread. 
he's too flaky. he can go 8-112-2 one week, and propose marriage to a kicking net the next week. Seriously, he's more likely to have a silly blow up and bad behavior than anyone in the game. and what do you get in the end - pretty average production from him last 4 years. I'm certain there will be a Jets WR with better stats this season. or someone in N.O. not named Michael Thomas.
Antonio Brown, Jeudy are good calls.
If you want OBJs 65 recs/yr, draft Sterling Shepherd 4 rounds later, he's money.
he's too flaky. he can go 8-112-2 one week, and propose marriage to a kicking net the next week. Seriously, he's more likely to have a silly blow up and bad behavior than anyone in the game. and what do you get in the end - pretty average production from him last 4 years. I'm certain there will be a Jets WR with better stats this season. or someone in N.O. not named Michael Thomas.
Antonio Brown, Jeudy are good calls.
If you want OBJs 65 recs/yr, draft Sterling Shepherd 4 rounds later, he's money.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
It has been a crazy career. Anyone similar come to mind? I guess if he ever gets back to what he once was we could say sort of Randy Moss. In reality, though. he was nowhere near as dominant in his first three seasons as Moss was in his first six, so that doesn't seem very sticky.
35 receiving TDs in 43 G (0.81/g) with a HOF arc through year 3, then 16 TDs in 39 G (0.41) in the last four seasons.
I never end up with him on any of my mocks, there are just too many upside players before and after him in the ranks. Would be great for football if he ever went back to being OBJ, but it's been a long, long, long time since that were true.
35 receiving TDs in 43 G (0.81/g) with a HOF arc through year 3, then 16 TDs in 39 G (0.41) in the last four seasons.
I never end up with him on any of my mocks, there are just too many upside players before and after him in the ranks. Would be great for football if he ever went back to being OBJ, but it's been a long, long, long time since that were true.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Allow me to retort . . . for starters, I am not a huge OBJ fan as he seems to be less productive in CLE than he was in NYG, so I am hardly an OBJ fanboy. That being said . . . over the last 3 years:Toast. #1 candidate on the do not draft list IMO. Are you guys nuts? every year we go through this and every year people get fooled by this guy. I can't handle another 'obj the fantasy killer 202x' thread.
he's too flaky. he can go 8-112-2 one week, and propose marriage to a kicking net the next week. Seriously, he's more likely to have a silly blow up and bad behavior than anyone in the game. and what do you get in the end - pretty average production from him last 4 years. I'm certain there will be a Jets WR with better stats this season. or someone in N.O. not named Michael Thomas.
Antonio Brown, Jeudy are good calls.
If you want OBJs 65 recs/yr, draft Sterling Shepherd 4 rounds later, he's money.
OBJ: 10.00 ppg (0 PPR), 14.97 ppg (1 PPR) - VS - Shepard: 7.68 (0 PPR), 12.65 (1 PPR)
IMO, those numbers for Shepard are inflated do to injuries to other players: 2016: Cruz and Vereen hurt, 2017: Beckham and Marshall hurt, 2018: Beckham and Engram hurt
2019: Tate, Engram, and Barkley hurt, 2020: Barkley and Tate hurt. Shepard has averaged 7.2 targets per game, but mostly due to him absorbing targets from guys not being in the lineup. He's also had his own injury issues, missing 15 games over the past 4 years.
The Giants now have more options to throw to . . . Golladay, Toney, Rudolph to go along with Barkley, Engram, and Slayton. Last year, the Giants only threw the ball 517 times. I don't see Shepard getting 7.2 targets per game / 120 on the season this year. A case can be made that Golladay, Barkley, and Engram will see more targets than Shepard.
There's a reason why the majority of fantasy sites have Shephard ranked in the WR60's. He's a decent player, but he's not an NFL WR1, is probably a middle of the road NFL WR2/3, and plays on a team with a RB and a TE that both should see a lot of targets (not even mentioning that Jones isn't exactly a top tier QB).
So sure, Shepherd will be available much later in the draft than OBJ, but the chances he puts up fantasy start worthy numbers are pretty low. If the Giants other skill position players are healthy, Shepard is essentially a fantasy WR5. Teams don't spend $72M to bring in a free agent and burn a first round draft pick on a WR if they are happy with their WRs.
daveR
Footballguy
My $.02 from CLE... The only limiting factor is the number of weapons on the Browns offense. It's not his "flakey" nature or his injury in 2020. He is 100% and focused. It's not Baker Mayfield. Baker's 2020 was superb given the circumstances, and the Browns averaged over 30 ppg when the two of them played together. If he doesn't put up 10 TDs, it'll be because the ball gets spread around. Everyone, the backs, the TEs, the many WRs, will eat!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
All solid data points. Added to this, OBJ has at least proved capable of having a "next level" of production. He hasn't displayed it due to injury or QB play or disgruntlement (depending on the year) but if he's 100% healthy & 100% bought in, it's certainly possible we see a resurgence.
Shepherd, by comparison, has never been the next level guy that OBJ was. Shepherd's upside, as you pointed out, was on full display due to injury at the other receiving positions - and it wasn't remotely as prolific a ceiling as we have seen from OBJ his first few years in the league.
OBJ is my favorite WR3 target. His teammate a round later has a safer weekly PPR floor, but Landry lacks the elite ceiling that OBJ is capable of. Both are nice fall-back options as a 3rd WR on a PPR fantasy squad. OBJ has more risk/reward to him though.
Sam Quentin
Footballguy
I saw this film analysis yesterday and it seems very relevant
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98hSaYh5fm8&t=946s
the opinion of this guy, based on film, is that OBJ and Baker were not on the same page last year and by the time Baker got comfortable with the new offense and taking shots downfield, OBJ was hurt.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98hSaYh5fm8&t=946s
the opinion of this guy, based on film, is that OBJ and Baker were not on the same page last year and by the time Baker got comfortable with the new offense and taking shots downfield, OBJ was hurt.
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zamboni
Footballguy
I think people (not saying you, but a general comment) are still chasing the 2014-2016 version of OBJ, when he hasn’t had a dominant season - even without injuries - since that 2016 season. Not saying he still can’t be a valuable fantasy contributor, but not seeing a big upside anymore after the injuries he’s endured.
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The Frankman
Footballguy
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
Until he proves otherwise Odie is just a brand name right now. Numbers have not matched the hype.
Ardbeg4ever
Footballguy
If he performs around his 2019 levels, he's a high WR3, which is about his ADP. I have him at WR25.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
LawFitz
Footballguy
I own (govern?) Baker and Chubb/Hunt; obviously, I'm expecting the Browns to be a top offense this season, which will benefit whoever is their WR1 -
I think it'll be OBJ, but if he falters I also think they have a sneaky NFL WR1-in-waiting by the name of Donovan Peoples-Jones. OBJ or DPJ - one of them will eat as a low-end PPG fantasy WR1 this year IMO (maybe both, should injury be the reason for transition).
I think it'll be OBJ, but if he falters I also think they have a sneaky NFL WR1-in-waiting by the name of Donovan Peoples-Jones. OBJ or DPJ - one of them will eat as a low-end PPG fantasy WR1 this year IMO (maybe both, should injury be the reason for transition).
Anarchy99
Footballguy
That's baked into his ADP . . .TripItUp said:
Based on MFL ADP data for PPR leagues:
2018: WR3 / 11th overall
2019: WR5 / 13th overall
2020: WR11 / 37th overall
2021: WR27 / 72nd overall
TBH, I might or might not be interested in OBJ say late 6th / early 7th in a redraft. It depends on how my team was shaping up. But I seem to draft him the years he gets hurt, so I would probably pass and let someone else worry about whether he can stay healthy and return to glory. (That being said, I know I drafted him at least once this year.)
TripItUp
Footballguy
My problem with OBJ is that I see higher upside players at his ADP or similar upside players much later...here are a few:
Claypool
T. Higgins
Jeudy
Golladay
Antonio Brown
Corey Davis
RBs I 'd rather have at his ADP
Ronald Jones
Trey Sermon
And my target TE is Logan Thomas who has a similar ADP
There are a slew of QBs going around OBJ's ADP, so if I wait on QB he gets passed up there as well...and I often wait on QB.
This is why I don't have a single share of OBJ, so many other players I'd rather have.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Different strokes for different folks. We are mostly in agreement that depending upon team composition and other remaining options still on the board, OBJ might not be a great option. I checked and in one league I took OBJ at WR 26 / 75th overall (PPR). I also have Logan Thomas and Corey Davis on that team, so I guess that's a good thing.
On your list, based on how I see things shaping up, I probably would pass on Golladay (mediocre QB and too many other targets), Brown (WR3 also with a ton of other targets), and Jones (too many RB in TB and IMO will pass more than run). I'm not enthralled with Jeudy mostly because I am not a huge Bridgewater fan, but there are worse receiving options out there. Of course, that all depends when these players are available. If they fell a couple of rounds, that's a different story.
