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Climate Change thread: UN Report: we need to take action (4 Viewers)

See I think small government can still win it just will take a bit more work. You need people elected that will repeal the grandfathered stranglehold the utility companies have so the market can decide what's better to have for each person. If it's more cost effective, the newer technology will eventually win. 
I’m down with this too. But to be clear I’m not advocating for government to run anything (that basically never works), I want them to clear regulations and invest more.  Let the private sector drive it, just help them far more then we are now.  

Unfortunately to do this Congress would need to work together, but until they become more concerned about getting wins for the country then they are not letting the “other team” get a perceived win we will be stuck as we are now.  

 
its a very hot summer - in fact, one of the hottest I remember 

but

The record for the most consecutive 100° days is 15, set back in the scorching summer of 1980

heat waves are not new - don't let people trick you into thinking that

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heat_waves

and those events are just recorded  in the last 120 years ..... this earth has seen incredible shifts in heat/cold events lasting decades, and even centuries
of course the climate changes over time and has historically.  it is the rate of the current change that is alarming and unprecedented.  In the short time since the industrial revolution, humans have caused the earth to move into a new geological epoch in the earth's time scale:  from the halocene age to the anthropocene age.

come out of your silo and read the scientific evidence.  this is not at all controversial.  saying "the earth's climate always changes" just illustrates your ignorance on the topic.

 
of course the climate changes over time and has historically.  it is the rate of the current change that is alarming and unprecedented.  In the short time since the industrial revolution, humans have caused the earth to move into a new geological epoch in the earth's time scale:  from the halocene age to the anthropocene age.

come out of your silo and read the scientific evidence.  this is not at all controversial.  saying "the earth's climate always changes" just illustrates your ignorance on the topic.


honest question - how long is the right time frame to get a good handle on "rate" ?

10 years? 50 years? 100 years?

 
honest question - how long is the right time frame to get a good handle on "rate" ?

10 years? 50 years? 100 years?
if this is truly an "honest question", you should not be engaging in these discussions.  rather, educate yourself.  outside of your information silo.

the average global temperature has increased by 1.1 degree since the industrial revolution, with a majority of that rapid increase occurring since the mid 70's.   that is about the same mean temperature increase as what occurred in the last ~1,000 years.

 
if this is truly an "honest question", you should not be engaging in these discussions.  rather, educate yourself.  outside of your information silo.

the average global temperature has increased by 1.1 degree since the industrial revolution, with a majority of that rapid increase occurring since the mid 70's.   that is about the same mean temperature increase as what occurred in the last ~1,000 years.


so about 50-60 years is the sample ? 

I mean global temp records only started what, in the 1880's or something right ?

1,000 years ago is guessing - we don't know

so ... for about 140 years, we have records .... and the earth is what, 4.5 billion years ?

that's an awfully small sample size isn't it ?

 
The earth's climate has always changed, for billions of years!  Also, we don't know what the climate was like before 1880, so how can we know if this is worse?

 
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so about 50-60 years is the sample ? 

I mean global temp records only started what, in the 1880's or something right ?

1,000 years ago is guessing - we don't know

so ... for about 140 years, we have records .... and the earth is what, 4.5 billion years ?

that's an awfully small sample size isn't it ?
who cares? sample size is completely irrelevant

what is relevant is cause and effect, which is unfolding exactly as science has predicted

 
So earths climate hasnt been changing?  Is that your argument?
No.  I'm wondering how someone can simultaneously argue that we don't know anything about the earth's climate prior to 1880 and that climate change isn't manmade because the earth's climate has changed for billions of years.

 
I've been steady on my position about climate change.  The reasons aren't that relevant in my opinion, because, I feel, no matter what we do, we aren't changing anything.  At all.   IF it was caused by us, it's past the tipping point and we should be investing our time and $$ in adaptive change and fast, rather than wasting trillions of dollars on trying to fix it, which will not happen.  And I mean there is an absolute zero chance of any of these "little" green initiatives making any difference.  There is no world consensus..and beyond that, there is no HUMAN consensus on this.  People like stuff.  And much of the stuff they like is stuff that requires the energy the entitled are trying to get away from.   Not happening.

And then IF it isn't caused by humans, and is in fact just a cycle, well then again, we aren't changing anything and better look to how we as a life entity adapt to our environment.  

These silly waste of time green initiatives are not much more to me than feel good measures which fix nothing, zip, zilch.  Meanwhile we are changing very little when it comes to planning for the inevitable.   

Anyway

ETA:  It makes me think of a giant meteor headed to Earth.  We know it's coming and we can't do much about it.  Sure we can try to go all Armageddon on it and cleave it in two--right before zero barrier, but that's movie mumbo jumbo.  So we throw a ton of $$ at that, fix nothing, and we all sit around and instead of planning for the inevitable, we sit around and argue whether the meteor came from the Oort cloud or the Kuiper belt.  Neither is even relevant

 
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Science is self-correcting and there are many examples, but if you have your mind made up why bother.  

E Bruce Harrison, for those who still believe science hasn't changed since 1992: The audacious PR plot that seeded doubt about climate change
No no no....You don't get to change "wrong" to self correcting.  It;s the same thing.  I know you think it sounds good, but it's just an admission that it was wrong the first time.  Sheesh

 
No no no....You don't get to change "wrong" to self correcting.  It;s the same thing.  I know you think it sounds good, but it's just an admission that it was wrong the first time.  Sheesh
You obviously don't understand how science works. 

And the article by Skrible 2022 above which supposedly shows that humans are not the primary source of CO2 emissions, has this rebuttal below, which I think few of us will understand, but it's a good take down of Skrible using science and solid references. The Skrible article shouldn't have been accepted in an inappropriate journal with inadequate reviewers. Now it's being amplified by Iowa farmers, lol, and people on a fantasy football site, lol.

https://acrobat.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:7e6086a5-a255-3eb4-998b-f0731e9d9042

 
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I've been steady on my position about climate change.  The reasons aren't that relevant in my opinion, because, I feel, no matter what we do, we aren't changing anything.  At all.   IF it was caused by us, it's past the tipping point and we should be investing our time and $$ in adaptive change and fast, rather than wasting trillions of dollars on trying to fix it, which will not happen.  And I mean there is an absolute zero chance of any of these "little" green initiatives making any difference.  There is no world consensus..and beyond that, there is no HUMAN consensus on this.  People like stuff.  And much of the stuff they like is stuff that requires the energy the entitled are trying to get away from.   Not happening.

And then IF it isn't caused by humans, and is in fact just a cycle, well then again, we aren't changing anything and better look to how we as a life entity adapt to our environment.  

These silly waste of time green initiatives are not much more to me than feel good measures which fix nothing, zip, zilch.  Meanwhile we are changing very little when it comes to planning for the inevitable.   

Anyway

ETA:  It makes me think of a giant meteor headed to Earth.  We know it's coming and we can't do much about it.  Sure we can try to go all Armageddon on it and cleave it in two--right before zero barrier, but that's movie mumbo jumbo.  So we throw a ton of $$ at that, fix nothing, and we all sit around and instead of planning for the inevitable, we sit around and argue whether the meteor came from the Oort cloud or the Kuiper belt.  Neither is even relevant
I’ve always found your pov on this one issue quite thoughtful (though depressing.) I don’t agree with you. I think we can technology our way out of this mess. 

 
I’ve always found your pov on this one issue quite thoughtful (though depressing.) I don’t agree with you. I think we can technology our way out of this mess. 
We can't.   Simply.  It goes against human nature, many countries are not and will not buy into it, and many of the same climate scientists you guys quote also tell you it's too late.  By decades.  the snowball is rolling downhill and it's too big to stop.   

I won't go so far as to say its depressing.   We are an adaptive species by nature.   Things are changing.  We need to embrace the change.   It doesn't automatically mean everything will be terrible......Not if we think this through.  Like anythign there will be winners and losers.  Key is how to mitigate that losing end as much as possible

 
You obviously don't understand how science works. 

And the article by Skrible 2022 above which supposedly shows that humans are not the primary source of CO2 emissions, has this rebuttal below, which I think few of us will understand, but it's a good take down of Skrible using science and solid references. The Skrible article shouldn't have been accepted in an inappropriate journal with inadequate reviewers. Now it's being amplified by Iowa farmers, lol, and people on a fantasy football site, lol.

https://acrobat.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:7e6086a5-a255-3eb4-998b-f0731e9d9042
Im sorry.   Because you are using the term "correcting itself" Vs "wrong" I don't understand how science works?  Thats adorable.  

 
What is actual scientific consensus, and not feeling, is that the "tipping point" for climate change is 1.5-2.0 degrees Celsius to prevent the most damaging effects.

A level which is widely agreed upon can be prevented with appropriate changes.

The 1.5 degrees Celsius goal is the aspirational temperature threshold ascribed in the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement. It is recognized as a crucial global target because beyond this level, so-called tipping points become more likely. These are thresholds at which small changes can lead to dramatic shifts in Earth’s entire life support system.

The highly anticipated report...says curbing global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels would require greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/04/ipcc-report-climate-scientists-issue-ultimatum-on-1point5-degrees-goal.html

 
Im sorry.   Because you are using the term "correcting itself" Vs "wrong" I don't understand how science works?  Thats adorable.  
Self-correction is through replication. If a study can't be replicated, it loses credibility. It often means the initial finding was a chance finding, not that it was "wrong".

Since this is Tim's climate change thread, I point to the reply to unfortunate article by Skrable cited above, for references to replication studies showing that man has been the biggest contributor to the huge CO2 increase.

https://acrobat.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:7e6086a5-a255-3eb4-998b-f0731e9d9042

 
One of the writers of the rebuttal to Skabble 2022, Gunnar Schade, of Texas AM who specializes in hydrocarbon emissions, has a link to the "Consensus Gap" from 2013.

Republicans have been drivers of misinformation through the political opinion lense. In Florida, after Rick Scott left, I sense a change, I guess because many coastal communities are already seeing the effect of climate change.

>>Social science research has shown (Fig. 1) that the public as a whole still perceives that there is little scientific consensus on human-caused global warming. The origins of this misperception probably lie in both (i) concerted media campaigns by US contrarian voices that began in the early 1990s, and which have led to widespread misinformation (“information deficit model”), fabrication of “doubt”, and associated discreditation of climate science and scientists, and (ii) the general public’s filtering of climate science information through cultural, faith-based, and political opinion lenses (“cultural cognition model”), leading to rejection of information for unrelated reasons. <<

 
I've been steady on my position about climate change.  The reasons aren't that relevant in my opinion, because, I feel, no matter what we do, we aren't changing anything.  At all.   IF it was caused by us, it's past the tipping point and we should be investing our time and $$ in adaptive change and fast, rather than wasting trillions of dollars on trying to fix it, which will not happen.  And I mean there is an absolute zero chance of any of these "little" green initiatives making any difference.  There is no world consensus..and beyond that, there is no HUMAN consensus on this.  People like stuff.  And much of the stuff they like is stuff that requires the energy the entitled are trying to get away from.   Not happening.

And then IF it isn't caused by humans, and is in fact just a cycle, well then again, we aren't changing anything and better look to how we as a life entity adapt to our environment.  

These silly waste of time green initiatives are not much more to me than feel good measures which fix nothing, zip, zilch.  Meanwhile we are changing very little when it comes to planning for the inevitable.   

Anyway

ETA:  It makes me think of a giant meteor headed to Earth.  We know it's coming and we can't do much about it.  Sure we can try to go all Armageddon on it and cleave it in two--right before zero barrier, but that's movie mumbo jumbo.  So we throw a ton of $$ at that, fix nothing, and we all sit around and instead of planning for the inevitable, we sit around and argue whether the meteor came from the Oort cloud or the Kuiper belt.  Neither is even relevant
Don't look up.

 
What is actual scientific consensus, and not feeling, is that the "tipping point" for climate change is 1.5-2.0 degrees Celsius to prevent the most damaging effects.

A level which is widely agreed upon can be prevented with appropriate changes.

The 1.5 degrees Celsius goal is the aspirational temperature threshold ascribed in the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement. It is recognized as a crucial global target because beyond this level, so-called tipping points become more likely. These are thresholds at which small changes can lead to dramatic shifts in Earth’s entire life support system.

The highly anticipated report...says curbing global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels would require greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/04/ipcc-report-climate-scientists-issue-ultimatum-on-1point5-degrees-goal.html
Wonderful. Still changes nothing.  Human behavior.   Country actions and on and on. It's a combination of being past the point of no return combined with little real desire as a species to give up the things that make us happy.  Scientists can prattle on all day about what they think should be done but that ain't changing a darn thing.  

Adapt or die.   This is where we are now

 
Science led to fracking breakthroughs...which produced cheap natural gas and reduced U.S. dependence on foreign oil.

Was fracking science wrong, or is climate science just politically inconvenient?


I'm not well read on fracking ... what are you getting at exactly? 

Science literally is defined as

the intellectual and practical activity encompassing the systematic study of the structure and behaviour of the physical and natural world through observation and experiment.

Science constantly changes, what we know is always changing

 
Wonderful. Still changes nothing.  Human behavior.   Country actions and on and on. It's a combination of being past the point of no return combined with little real desire as a species to give up the things that make us happy.  Scientists can prattle on all day about what they think should be done but that ain't changing a darn thing.  

Adapt or die.   This is where we are now
Love the deniers progression on Climate change the last 5 years or so -- 

Its a hoax >>>>>>> It'll cost too much >>>>> Its too late to fix

Why do you really care so much to deny?  Meanwhile, folks are dealing with issues daily -- coastal roads and infrastructure now flooding regularly even w/o precipitation events; out of control forest fires;  mudslides, tornadoes in December; record heat globally 

 
Love the deniers progression on Climate change the last 5 years or so -- 

Its a hoax >>>>>>> It'll cost too much >>>>> Its too late to fix

Why do you really care so much to deny?  Meanwhile, folks are dealing with issues daily -- coastal roads and infrastructure now flooding regularly even w/o precipitation events; out of control forest fires;  mudslides, tornadoes in December; record heat globally 
Boy oh boy you sure misunderstand things dont you?   There was no denial in my posts.  In fact, I said we should focus on adaptation rather than mitigation, because I don't believe mitigation is the correct approach.

Slow down and comprehend before you smash that reply button next time big fella.

 
Love the deniers progression on Climate change the last 5 years or so --
There are actually several levels

1. It’s not getting warmer

2. ok, it’s getting warmer, but it’s “natural”

3. ok, it’s not natural, but it’s not anything we’re doing 

4. ok, we’re doing it, but there’s nothing we can do to stop it

5. ok, there’s plenty we can do to stop it, but it will cripple our economy

6. ok, if done correctly it could actually be a stimulus for our economy, but Al Gore took a plane ride.

rinse, repeat.

 
Boy oh boy you sure misunderstand things dont you?   There was no denial in my posts.  In fact, I said we should focus on adaptation rather than mitigation, because I don't believe mitigation is the correct approach.

Slow down and comprehend before you smash that reply button next time big fella.
Oh, you're still denying big fella --at the moment, denying its fixable.   

And define what you mean by "mitigation" vs "adaptation"?

 
Oh, you're still denying big fella --at the moment, denying its fixable.   

And define what you mean by "mitigation" vs "adaptation"?
Yes that's true.   Usually when you climate guys talk "denial" its almost always related to denial that it exists.  I didn't realize you were moving the goalposts for this discussion.  So you are right...I am denying that the climate initiatives will succeed.  I don't believe they will.  And I have already stated my reasons for that.

Mitigation and adaptation are fairly related in my thoughts.  Instead of trying to change the inevitable, we shoudl spend $$ on finding ways to survive and continue with the changing environment.  

 
Yes that's true.   Usually when you climate guys talk "denial" its almost always related to denial that it exists.  I didn't realize you were moving the goalposts for this discussion.  So you are right...I am denying that the climate initiatives will succeed.  I don't believe they will.  And I have already stated my reasons for that.

Mitigation and adaptation are fairly related in my thoughts.  Instead of trying to change the inevitable, we shoudl spend $$ on finding ways to survive and continue with the changing environment.  
Future costs of "adaptation" will be orders of magnitude greater than the current costs of "prevention." Always and forever. It is a simple life concept.

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. -Ben Franklin

Pay me now, or pay me more later. - Fram Oil Filters

 
Future costs of "adaptation" will be orders of magnitude greater than the current costs of "prevention." Always and forever. It is a simple life concept.

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. -Ben Franklin

Pay me now, or pay me more later. - Fram Oil Filters
You have zero data to back that up.  Zero. 

And if prevention proves to be wasted effort, then it's a moot point.  And I believe it is.

Also please keep in mind. I'm not saying prevention efforts are flawed or the science won't work. I'm saying they will never ever ever be adopted by humanity in the levels they need to be to be effective. 

That's a simpler life concept 

 
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Future costs of "adaptation" will be orders of magnitude greater than the current costs of "prevention." Always and forever. It is a simple life concept.

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. -Ben Franklin

Pay me now, or pay me more later. - Fram Oil Filters
Yes and no.  One means we pay less now.  The other means someone else pays more later.  People voting against prevention are simply arguing that someone else (i.e. younger people / future generations) should pay the costs.

 
You have zero data to back that up.  Zero. 

And if prevention proves to be wasted effort, then it's a moot point.  And I believe it is 
Baloney. 

Deloitte's analysis shows that insufficient action on climate change could cost the U.S. economy $14.5 trillion in the next 50 years. A loss of this scale is equivalent to nearly 4% of GDP or $1.5 trillion in 2070 alone. And over the next 50 years, nearly 900,000 jobs could disappear each year due to climate damage.

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/about-deloitte/articles/press-releases/deloitte-report-inaction-on-climate-change-could-cost-the-us-economy-trillions-by-2070.html

 
Yes and no.  One means we pay less now.  The other means someone else pays more later.  People voting against prevention are simply arguing that someone else (i.e. younger people / future generations) should pay the costs.
Yes. That is exactly what I'm saying. It is also exactly what I quoted yesterday Carl Sagan saying before Congress 50 years ago.

Because the effects occupy more than a human generation, there is a tendency to say that they are not our problem. Of course, then they are nobody’s problem, not on my tour of duty, not on my term of office. It’s something for the next century. Let the next century worry about it. 

 
Baloney. 

Deloitte's analysis shows that insufficient action on climate change could cost the U.S. economy $14.5 trillion in the next 50 years. A loss of this scale is equivalent to nearly 4% of GDP or $1.5 trillion in 2070 alone. And over the next 50 years, nearly 900,000 jobs could disappear each year due to climate damage.

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/about-deloitte/articles/press-releases/deloitte-report-inaction-on-climate-change-could-cost-the-us-economy-trillions-by-2070.html
That doesnt come close to saying what you said before.   Youre just telling me how bad climate change "could" affect the economy.  

 
@supermike80.  Your position is well thought out and has merit (though I disagree we are past the point of no return) but I believe the solution is a hybrid approach.  While we are pretty  deep down this rabbit hole for sure every bit we can stop now is less we will have to adapt to into the future.  Mitigation efforts now are extremely important and I still believe we can roll back this clock quite a bit, but to your point there’s a certain amount of damage already done so we have to make preparations for the ramifications too.  We must run in both lanes to truly get our arms around this problem.  

 
dkp993 said:
@supermike80.  Your position is well thought out and has merit (though I disagree we are past the point of no return) but I believe the solution is a hybrid approach.  While we are pretty  deep down this rabbit hole for sure every bit we can stop now is less we will have to adapt to into the future.  Mitigation efforts now are extremely important and I still believe we can roll back this clock quite a bit, but to your point there’s a certain amount of damage already done so we have to make preparations for the ramifications too.  We must run in both lanes to truly get our arms around this problem.  


We should absolutely do what we can now, within reason.  We should not destroy our economy, as Biden and AOC would do if they could.  Also, it's worth noting that many of the measures being touted to fight climate change aren't nearly as environmentally friendly as most people think.   I posted links recently to a video and twitter feed documenting how our quest for batteries is destroying Chile.  This doesn't even get in to the fact that we have no strategy for recycling any of this stuff.  Solar panels, in particular, are extremely difficult to recycle, and we're just getting to the beginning of the lifespan of early solar panels ending.  So, we need a little more transparency and truth about the effects of fighting climate change, because anyone thinking it's as simple as converting to solar/wind is living in a fantasy world. 

 
We should absolutely do what we can now, within reason.  We should not destroy our economy, as Biden and AOC would do if they could.  Also, it's worth noting that many of the measures being touted to fight climate change aren't nearly as environmentally friendly as most people think.   I posted links recently to a video and twitter feed documenting how our quest for batteries is destroying Chile.  This doesn't even get in to the fact that we have no strategy for recycling any of this stuff.  Solar panels, in particular, are extremely difficult to recycle, and we're just getting to the beginning of the lifespan of early solar panels ending.  So, we need a little more transparency and truth about the effects of fighting climate change, because anyone thinking it's as simple as converting to solar/wind is living in a fantasy world. 
Agree with your overall point.  Often solutions come with their own sets of problems no doubt about it.  Which is exactly why we need to be pushing forward and investing heavily into these things, most often as technology advances we find solutions to the problems that arise, it also often leads to new paths and advancements previously not thought of.   We can’t be taking a half measured approach to this imo, there’s simply too much at stake.  

 
dkp993 said:
@supermike80.  Your position is well thought out and has merit (though I disagree we are past the point of no return) but I believe the solution is a hybrid approach.  While we are pretty  deep down this rabbit hole for sure every bit we can stop now is less we will have to adapt to into the future.  Mitigation efforts now are extremely important and I still believe we can roll back this clock quite a bit, but to your point there’s a certain amount of damage already done so we have to make preparations for the ramifications too.  We must run in both lanes to truly get our arms around this problem.  
Thanks and thats fair.   I'm not saying do nothing.  However I do think that putting too much effort into this might not be helpful.    

 
Pretty funny how conservatives always seem to be on board with a clean energy economy, "but not immediately, it has to be a transition!"

Lol. Somehow phasing something in over 30 years still doesn't qualify as a transition in their minds.
Did you read the plan that he has? It doesn't explain how it will phase in. Just that fossil fuels will end suddenly and clean energy infrastructure will be up and running to take it's place without a hitch. What infrastructure has been built in the last 10 years that gives you any hope that the next 30 will get us there? We currently have less than 1% of the US fleet of cars on electric and they're already talking about rolling blackouts and limiting charging times in places like CA. 

Fossil fuels are such an integral part of every aspect of our economy. Cutting them off without a fully functioning, self sustaining alternative is economic suicide. See Europe currently. Desperately scrambling to restart coal and nuclear plants they shut down just to survive. Bidens determination to end Fossil Fuels(and to be fair it's not really his plan, just the people telling him what to say) at the pace we're going is definitely trying to tear down the economy to "build it back better."

 
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This is just about the most Trumpian pandemic 2020'ish thing ever typed


you think science is constant, never changing then?

you know you don't believe that

example - everyone believe science, when science said the covid vaccines stopped you from getting covid - that was science, wasn't it ?

science changed, when after months of additional research and information was gathered, they realized covid vaccines didn't really do a good job at all of stopping people from getting covid 

science, was wrong, but man the people believing science when they were told that? they were adamant, "trust science" we were told, get the vaccine or you'll be responsible for deaths etc etc

just an example - my point is, science changes, its not factual its simply the information we currently have .... I read an article a few days ago on dino prints found out west and how it was radical, because they didn't think those dino's were ever there, and it was millions of years before they thought .... science, was wrong

 
106 year-old rainfall record broken in St. Louis - FOX 2

https://fox2now.com › news › weather › 100-year-rainf...

15 hours ago — Louis has recorded a 7.02 amount of rainfall. This record surpassed the old record of 6.85 set back on August 20, 1915.

what happened in 1915 to trigger such climate change?  man-made? 

 

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