The district is comprised of wealthy suburbs of Buffalo, wealthy suburbs of Rochester, and a giant swath of mostly rural farm country in the middle. Trump plays well here, and Collins struck political gold by being the first sitting member of Congress to endorse him. I strongly suspect that he will win re-election without really too much of a concern, especially if Trump stumps for him at all.
Collins is massively independently-wealthy and has a very significant fundraising advantage over his main opponent ($1.3 million vs. $80k at last check, before this scandal officially broke). He seems to have both the ego and the financial means to throw a ton of weight behind a re-election campaign and overwhelm the opposition.
I've seen a lot of talk about how his opponent, Nate McMurray, is a weak candidate. I'm not really entirely sure I agree with that. McMurray is clearly a rising star in the state's political arena, and it really didn't surprise me to see him secure the nomination. He has a lot of positives - relatively young (43 compared to Collins' 68), progressive agenda, positive demeanor, deep Western New York ties. But he's raw, politically. He's the town supervisor of my hometown, which isn't even in the NY 27 district...it's in NY 26. I don't know if voters care about that, but they might. He did manage to flip the town government from red to blue, though. His major political achievements have been, literally, turning an underutilized parkway into a bike path against local opposition and somehow securing a bunch of state funding to build a state-of-the-art Niagara Falls visitor center that no one goes to.
It'll be interesting to see how he stands up to the increased scrutiny over the next few months. Personality-wise, I think he'll do fine. He's a good speaker, energetic, doesn't seem to get fazed easily. I think he has a very bright political future, at least at the state level. But we'll see how he handles the next few months.