Keep laughing. His numbers are right on par with Drew Brees after 3 years, 28 starts. He will almost certainly not be as good as Brees, however if that guy can struggle through his first few seasons, then anyone can.
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Could the Bills be the breakout offense of 2014? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sigmund Bloom
- Start date
MAC_32
Footballguy
getting confused with colleges, my man.
MAC_32
Footballguy
as the old saying goes, your potential is going to get me fired, son.
Tom Brady couldn't beat out Drew Henson or Brian Griese at Michigan, that's how bad he is.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
picking this argument with the wrong person. I hate this argument.Tom Brady couldn't beat out Drew Henson or Brian Griese at Michigan, that's how bad he is.
MAC_32
Footballguy
huh completely forgot he was there before transferring.
jurb26
Footballguy
Come on, a BIG supporter like you should know better. Foles was at MSU and then transferred to Arz.
MAC_32
Footballguy
oof. Not a big ten fan. Michigan fan. I'm not like sec honks. I hate sec honks.
jurb26
Footballguy
I follow it all. I'm a college football honk I suppose.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I definitely think it is worth investigating Bloom.
Grove Diesels comments about the OC not tailoring the system to fit the strength of the players (Johnson) is something that concerns me.
From my perspective the Bills improved their offense from what it was before. They ran the ball an amazing number of times considering the overall lack of efficiency from the offense as pointed out by Anarchy.
I only saw a few games of Manuel. I thought he looked decisive and played well for a rookie in those 2-3 games I watched. So I am expecting some improvement from him now with a year in the offense.
Watkins does have the YAC ability to help Manuel or whoever is the QB to pad their stats. Woods is a pretty good WR as well now going into his second season.
I think the Bills may still be another year away from fully breaking out as an offense. I think they will still be very good in the running game but how well Manuel develops will determine if they take a step forward as a passing offense or not.
I do not really like the fit for Watkins. I can understand why they wanted him but I think other offenses (like Detroit) would have been a better fit for him to realize his full potential for FF. I think his ceiling is capped a bit in this offense.
With the change in ownership possibly leading to a coaching change if the Bills do not come together with some progress this season hurts longer term prognostications for the offense.
I am buying Spiller/Brown. But other than that I wouldn't want to invest too much into this offense right now.
Grove Diesels comments about the OC not tailoring the system to fit the strength of the players (Johnson) is something that concerns me.
From my perspective the Bills improved their offense from what it was before. They ran the ball an amazing number of times considering the overall lack of efficiency from the offense as pointed out by Anarchy.
I only saw a few games of Manuel. I thought he looked decisive and played well for a rookie in those 2-3 games I watched. So I am expecting some improvement from him now with a year in the offense.
Watkins does have the YAC ability to help Manuel or whoever is the QB to pad their stats. Woods is a pretty good WR as well now going into his second season.
I think the Bills may still be another year away from fully breaking out as an offense. I think they will still be very good in the running game but how well Manuel develops will determine if they take a step forward as a passing offense or not.
I do not really like the fit for Watkins. I can understand why they wanted him but I think other offenses (like Detroit) would have been a better fit for him to realize his full potential for FF. I think his ceiling is capped a bit in this offense.
With the change in ownership possibly leading to a coaching change if the Bills do not come together with some progress this season hurts longer term prognostications for the offense.
I am buying Spiller/Brown. But other than that I wouldn't want to invest too much into this offense right now.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
identikit
Footballguy
Yeah, EJ may be on a par with other rookie QBs.
But the thread is about EJ and the Bills offense being a breakout in 2014.
I don't see EJ all of a sudden being immediately and significantly better than he's shown so far.
Khy
Footballguy
Don't forget... Brady said behind Brian Griese for 2 years at Michigan as well. Now look at them, Brian Griese is a 3 time HoF QB and Brady is just some journeyman who failed to secede John Elway and was out of the league by 33. Wait, maybe I have those backwards.
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Khy
Footballguy
I just mentioned this in the thread for him as well. But honestly, if I had to select one team I thought was going to be a 'breakout' offense this season? I'd probably slot the Minnesota Vikings in over the Bills. If they let Bridgewater slide into the starting job in Week 1, this team has tons of young talent surrounding it.
QB: Teddy Bridgewater
WR: Cordarrelle Patterson
WR: Greg Jennings
WR: Jarius Wright
RB: Adrian Peterson
TE: Kyle Rudolph
To me this looks like one of the best young high ceiling offenses in the league right now. They're obviously not there yet, but the ceiling is there. Norv Turner knows how to make a productive fantasy offense. Not to mention the NFC North is riddled with suspect defensive play right now. Could really be the start of something special here for the next couple of years, just a shame they likely won't tie everything together before AP has to go in a couple years.
QB: Teddy Bridgewater
WR: Cordarrelle Patterson
WR: Greg Jennings
WR: Jarius Wright
RB: Adrian Peterson
TE: Kyle Rudolph
To me this looks like one of the best young high ceiling offenses in the league right now. They're obviously not there yet, but the ceiling is there. Norv Turner knows how to make a productive fantasy offense. Not to mention the NFC North is riddled with suspect defensive play right now. Could really be the start of something special here for the next couple of years, just a shame they likely won't tie everything together before AP has to go in a couple years.
lod01
Footballguy
FUBAR
Footballguy
Manuel can easily be on par with Kaepernick.
I'd bet on Buffalo being a top 12 offense this year. If their line can improve, they can stick with the Seahawks and 49ers on offense. Their defense isn't as good of course, but Buffalo is one of the teams I expect to see in the playoffs this year.
spider321
Footballguy
Yes, Brees was pretty bad until the Chargers drafted Philip Rivers,
Who knows, maybe EJ Manuel will learn to throw a football after the Bills draft a 1st round QB in 2016.
Khy
Footballguy
I agree with you, I also think that Manuel can easily be a mid-high QB2 like Kaepernick.
I wouldn't call Brees bad 'bad' before they drafted Rivers. He had a really good and promising 2nd season in 2002 then him (and the team for that matter) regressed horribly in 2003. He was benched for Flutie in Week 9. Then he came back to start weeks 15 and 16 to close out the abysmal season they had. Bear in mind, it wasn't like Flutie came in and lit the world on fire either. The team just sucked. Then he turned it on in 2004. I don't think that Rivers really had anything to do with it, so much as he was simply maturing as a QB and learning to adjust for his smaller height in the NFL.
Sure, these things "can" happen, but I don't think it's likely next season. Even if they do, Seattle and SF aren't exactly FF goldmines. I'm not interested in many Bills players next year.
The instant infusion of passing game potency by Norv in Cleveland and of course, Teddy, is a good reason to like them. I don't expect Minnesota to run as many plays and Peterson isn't coming at a discount, but Minnesota definitely belongs in the breakout offense conversation.jurb26 said:
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karmarooster
Footballguy
Good call by Bloom here just pointing out the writing on the wall - Buffalo is in for an improved offense in 2014 (even if they won't be a fantasy goldmine - I don't think that's the claim).
The people saying a blanket "No" in here --> the people who assume that because Buffalo has been pretty bad means they will stay pretty bad.
The people in here pumping Bridgewater and the Vikes --> People forgetting that Bridgewater is now what Manuel was last year. A mid-late first round QB who, like almost every other rookie QB, will struggle at times. (He does have a plus OC in Norv, though).
Second year improvements of recent QBs from approximately the same draft spot:
Tannehill - increased completion % from 58% to 60%, yards up from 3,294 to 3,900, TDs up from 12 to 24.
The Terrible Josh Freeman - increased % from 54 to 61, yards up from 1,855 to 3,451, TDS up from 10 to 25.
See also - Jay Cutler, etc. etc.
But there's no chance that Manuel gets better, right?, in his second season with the same HC and system, with a healthy training camp (remember he missed the pre-season with the knee thing last year?), improved weapons... and a fast no huddle offense.
For reference, Manuel's 58% completion and 11 TDs are similar to Tannehill (tho Manuel played in just 10 games vs. Tannehill's 16), and passing yards are similar to Freeman (who also played in 10 games). The numbers show that Manuel could clearly have a slight improvement and put up ~3,000-3,500 yards with about 20 TDs, and maybe a little rushing.
We're not talking about the 2013 Broncos or even last year's Eagles, but they can certainly be a middle of the pack offense that produces better than expected numbers based on a high volume of plays. Manuel-Spiller-Watkins-Woods,-Williams is not a bad core, if only they had a decent TE. Hopefully they run Spiller and Brown 'till they puke' and make it easier for Manuel to get the ball to his WWW wide receivers.
The people saying a blanket "No" in here --> the people who assume that because Buffalo has been pretty bad means they will stay pretty bad.
The people in here pumping Bridgewater and the Vikes --> People forgetting that Bridgewater is now what Manuel was last year. A mid-late first round QB who, like almost every other rookie QB, will struggle at times. (He does have a plus OC in Norv, though).
Second year improvements of recent QBs from approximately the same draft spot:
Tannehill - increased completion % from 58% to 60%, yards up from 3,294 to 3,900, TDs up from 12 to 24.
The Terrible Josh Freeman - increased % from 54 to 61, yards up from 1,855 to 3,451, TDS up from 10 to 25.
See also - Jay Cutler, etc. etc.
But there's no chance that Manuel gets better, right?, in his second season with the same HC and system, with a healthy training camp (remember he missed the pre-season with the knee thing last year?), improved weapons... and a fast no huddle offense.
For reference, Manuel's 58% completion and 11 TDs are similar to Tannehill (tho Manuel played in just 10 games vs. Tannehill's 16), and passing yards are similar to Freeman (who also played in 10 games). The numbers show that Manuel could clearly have a slight improvement and put up ~3,000-3,500 yards with about 20 TDs, and maybe a little rushing.
We're not talking about the 2013 Broncos or even last year's Eagles, but they can certainly be a middle of the pack offense that produces better than expected numbers based on a high volume of plays. Manuel-Spiller-Watkins-Woods,-Williams is not a bad core, if only they had a decent TE. Hopefully they run Spiller and Brown 'till they puke' and make it easier for Manuel to get the ball to his WWW wide receivers.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Again, I am not poo-pooing that there could be an improvement in the Bills offense. However, there were reasons why Tannehill was more productive last season.
MIA ranked 10th in passing attempts with 594 and 30th in rushing attempts with only 348.
BUF ranked 24th in passing attempts with 522 and 1st in rushing attempts with 546.
So even running 126 more plays than the Dolphins did, BUF passed 72 fewer times. Is Bloom suggesting that the Bills are going to dramatically INCREASE their number of passes? I don't think that was his intent. But it sounded like he was thinking they might run even more this season.
karmarooster
Footballguy
Nor was my point that the bills were going to get up to near 600 pass attempts and Manuel up near 4,000 yards. My point was that most QBs improve from year 1 to year 2 - if Manuel DIDN'T improve slightly, that would be more surprising. A more efficient Manuel + better weapons + a similarly high volume of plays translates into better fantasy values all around.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Buffalo clearly doesn't have a gamechanging TE like Gronk or Graham, but Chandler is perfectly serviceable. He's a pretty bad blocker and isn't super athletic, but he did have 650+ yards last year and is a pretty good red zone target.
He was 13th in receptions and 12th in yards at the TE position. Those obviously aren't elite TE numbers, but they're good enough to keep the offense running and to be a threat.
He was 13th in receptions and 12th in yards at the TE position. Those obviously aren't elite TE numbers, but they're good enough to keep the offense running and to be a threat.
Then why did he compare them to last year's Eagles in the piece?
Sure, they can be a middle of the pack offense (they pretty much were last year), but that's not all that exciting for fantasy.
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OC Zed
Footballguy
There is a consensus that Buffalo's offensive success hinges on Manuel's development this year. Manuel's biggest weakness thus far has been his inaccuracy (at least at times). I am wondering which top level NFL QBs (if any) developed into accurate passers after struggling with inaccuracy early in their careers. Is there anyone?
Khy
Footballguy
Drew Brees...
2002 - 60.8%
2003 - 57.3%
Since? He's averaged in the high 60s.
EJ Manuel
2013 - 58.8%
It can be done, often accuracy is about mechanics issues. It just takes the right coach.
karmarooster
Footballguy
Because it's basically a copycat offense of the Kelly "blur" offense or whatever you want to call it - to get up to the line and snap it as fast as possible, and usually to run the ball and tire out the defense, keep your own defense off the field, etc. We heard so much about it last year but Buffalo basically uses the same system without the Kelly hype.Then why did he compare them to last year's Eagles in the piece?
Sure, they can be a middle of the pack offense (they pretty much were last year), but that's not all that exciting for fantasy.
And they were certainly not "middle of the pack" in terms of rushing offense last year - in addition to the most team rushes, they had the 2nd most yards last year with 2300 yards - second to Philly at 2500, are you sensing the comparison now? The difference was that Philly's rushing output was largely concentrated in McCoy (with some Vick), whereas Buffalo was spread out with Spiller and Jackson (with some Manuel and Lewis).
Buffalo WAS middle of the pack for team YPC, but that might've been because spiller was hobbled, manuel was a rookie and injury, and the other games were quarterbacked by Tuel-time and Thad Lewis.
So, you're not sold on the QB after his rookie season? Which quarterbacks HAVE we actually been 'sold on' after the rookie year? The list is fairly short - Peyton, Cam, Luck, RG3.... and not many others.
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spider321
Footballguy
Stop. Just stop.
Manuel wasn't that great in college, he was a HUGE reach when the Bills drafted him, and he's just not very good.
Yes. Drew Brees wasn't good his first 2 or 3 years and now he's a future HOF'er.
So now do we have to compare EVERY terrible young QB to Brees and say, "Hey, he could do what Brees did!!!"?
Could some alien being take over Manuel's body and make him a decent NFL QB? Maybe.
But stop it, please.
Stop it.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Peyton Manning only completed 56.7% of his passes his rookie year.
Manuel's problem is mostly in planting and stepping into his throws. His QB coach is working hard with him on that this offseason along with some other minor tweaks.
Manuel's problem is mostly in planting and stepping into his throws. His QB coach is working hard with him on that this offseason along with some other minor tweaks.
spider321
Footballguy
karmarooster
Footballguy
From your signature:
Matt Stafford rookie: 53% completion, 13 TDs/20 INTs (played in 10 games like Manuel)
Sam Bradford: 60% completion
Mike Glennon: 59%
These players are, in your opinion, worth enough to roster, but Manuel will never be good? Also according to your logic, Stafford would NEVER be good unless an alien took over his body - I mean look at that completion percentage! Bradford is probably the best of the bunch.
You're looking at the logic in the wrong way. "Bad Rookie QB with stats similar to Drew Brees" =/= "Bad Rookie QB will one day be as good as Drew Brees."
The logic is instead "Many Rookie QBs struggle, even Drew Brees, so passing judgment that a player is 'just bad, stop it' after one season is playing a game called JUMP to conclusions", get it?
This seems to be a difficult concept for you.
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Did you read the article? It isn't comparing the style of offense, it's talking about fantasy breakouts.Because it's basically a copycat offense of the Kelly "blur" offense or whatever you want to call it - to get up to the line and snap it as fast as possible, and usually to run the ball and tire out the defense, keep your own defense off the field, etc. We heard so much about it last year but Buffalo basically uses the same system without the Kelly hype.Then why did he compare them to last year's Eagles in the piece?
Sure, they can be a middle of the pack offense (they pretty much were last year), but that's not all that exciting for fantasy.
And they were certainly not "middle of the pack" in terms of rushing offense last year - in addition to the most team rushes, they had the 2nd most yards last year with 2300 yards - second to Philly at 2500, are you sensing the comparison now? The difference was that Philly's rushing output was largely concentrated in McCoy (with some Vick), whereas Buffalo was spread out with Spiller and Jackson (with some Manuel and Lewis).
Buffalo WAS middle of the pack for team YPC, but that might've been because spiller was hobbled, manuel was a rookie and injury, and the other games were quarterbacked by Tuel-time and Thad Lewis.
You said middle of the pack offense, not rushing offense. Again, it doesn't really matter since I already gave them credit for that and pointed out that it really doesn't mean much for fantasy.
Nucker101
Footballguy
Nope, going back to college. He seems like just a serviceable/average QB to me.Because it's basically a copycat offense of the Kelly "blur" offense or whatever you want to call it - to get up to the line and snap it as fast as possible, and usually to run the ball and tire out the defense, keep your own defense off the field, etc. We heard so much about it last year but Buffalo basically uses the same system without the Kelly hype.Then why did he compare them to last year's Eagles in the piece?
Sure, they can be a middle of the pack offense (they pretty much were last year), but that's not all that exciting for fantasy.
And they were certainly not "middle of the pack" in terms of rushing offense last year - in addition to the most team rushes, they had the 2nd most yards last year with 2300 yards - second to Philly at 2500, are you sensing the comparison now? The difference was that Philly's rushing output was largely concentrated in McCoy (with some Vick), whereas Buffalo was spread out with Spiller and Jackson (with some Manuel and Lewis).
Buffalo WAS middle of the pack for team YPC, but that might've been because spiller was hobbled, manuel was a rookie and injury, and the other games were quarterbacked by Tuel-time and Thad Lewis.
So, you're not sold on the QB after his rookie season? Which quarterbacks HAVE we actually been 'sold on' after the rookie year? The list is fairly short - Peyton, Cam, Luck, RG3.... and not many others.
Just to keep this from continually derailing into an argument about what I did or didn't say, I gave a fantasy prescription at the end of the article:
MAC_32
Footballguy
that does not fix his field vision problem.
FUBAR
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
It was just as bad last year as it was in college. Common mistake is to assume young players will improve. Truth is most dont. He has not shown any signs he will fix what ails him.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
That may or not be an issue. I don't think he has a vision problem as much as he has a confidence issue. He seemed terrified of turning the ball over and was thus overly conservative and tentative to me. The times he looked the best to me were actually the times where the Bills were in higher pressure situations and he was forced to just play rather than think a whole lot. All preseason all we kept hearing from the coaches was how important it was for Manuel to not turn the ball over. I think that got to him.Throughout the season last year, the guys at BuffaloRumblings showed multiple plays where Manuel clearly looks at open receivers deeper down the field but then chickens out and throws it to safer options. It wasn't that he didn't make his progression or didn't see the open receiver, it was that he wussed out and was overly conservative.
The hope is that with a season under his belt, knowing the system and having a full pro offseason, Manuel is more confident and less afraid to make the more difficult throws without over thinking that. That's no easy thing though and it may never happen. If it doesn't then Manuel will never progress and will be a bust. If it does happen, I think he can become much much better than he was last year.
By the end of the year, the coaches were starting to say that wanted him to be more aggressive and rip it down field more. So I think they at least saw their error and will be more encouraging of him to just throw the ball.
The other thing the Bills can do is predicate the offense more around pre-snap reads rather than a post snap progression. This is what the Patriots do with Brady and what the Colts and Broncos have done with Manning. By all accounts, Manuel is a pretty smart guy and did this at Florida State. That simplifies things post snap and can give him more confidence in making throws he knows will be there. I don't think Hackett is doing that though because Hackett is an uncreative hack.
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Your arguments are less than persuasive when they boil down to "Manuel is bad so he won't improve."
Can you even expound on what you think causes his accuracy issues? Because I can write a pretty comprehensive post explaining where he majority of his accuracy issues occur, how easy/difficult those particular issues are to fix versus other causes, and exactly what Manuel is doing to work on them. Further, I can relate them specifically to other QBs that have struggled with accuracy due to the same issues.
Can you do any of that? Or is your analysis simply "Manuel is bad so he can't improve."?
