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Current Expert Draft (Bloom, Silva, Barfield, Clay, Harmon) (1 Viewer)

Bojang0301

Bojang0301

Omar4Heisman
AJ Green the worst pick of the draft, but overall pretty vanilla thus far.

The "expert" drafts typically fall apart in the middle rounds where they expose their lack of drafting prowess...should be fun to critique.

 
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Snorkelson said:
Bloom has to be happy to get Zeke at 6.
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I bet, Zeke went #1 in the FBG draft Friday night that they had on the FFPC podcast.

Beckham went #4 in same draft and he went #5 here...looks like the days of him going at the end of the 1st may be over.

 
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TripItUp said:
AJ Green the worst pick of the draft, but overall pretty vanilla thus far.

The "expert" drafts typically fall apart in the middle rounds where they expose their lack of drafting prowess...should be fun to critique.
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I thought Green at 18 in PPR was a solid pick. Hilton at 19 feels like the biggest reach to me. That high means Luck has to be back to his 2016 self, and that is asking a lot. 

Milkman said:
Adams should have been drafted earlier. 
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Biggest steal so far in my opinion.

 
Mixon and Tyreek were good values. Both will be 1st round picks this time next year. If you pick 2nd you can actually come away with DJ/Mixon/Tyreek with your first three picks. 3 players in my top 10 this year. 

 
Milkman said:
Mixon and Tyreek were good values. Both will be 1st round picks this time next year. If you pick 2nd you can actually come away with DJ/Mixon/Tyreek with your first three picks. 3 players in my top 10 this year. 
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Those are some bold calls. I don't have Mixon or Hill in the top-12 of their positions. What do you like about those guys, especially Mixon?

On the other hand, I really like Jordan Howard at #30. Bloom has a really good RB duo going so far. 

 
Milkman said:
Mixon and Tyreek were good values. Both will be 1st round picks this time next year. If you pick 2nd you can actually come away with DJ/Mixon/Tyreek with your first three picks. 3 players in my top 10 this year. 
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Ok, I’m sort of with you on Mixon but I’m off the rails on Hill. Given his lack of targets last year, extreme efficiency (outlier), addition of Watkins and subtraction of Alex Smith I’m wondering how your math comes out to Hill being top 10. Disclaimer: KC will be one of the last projections I do and I haven’t reviewed them yet. Mainly making these assumptions from others critiques.

 
travdogg said:
Those are some bold calls. I don't have Mixon or Hill in the top-12 of their positions. What do you like about those guys, especially Mixon?

On the other hand, I really like Jordan Howard at #30. Bloom has a really good RB duo going so far. 
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Love the Jordan Howard pick as well. 

Mixon looks incredible on tape to me. It was just the entire offense was bad. I expect a LeVeon Bell type turn around this year. They fixed their OL a little and he's positioned to break out. Tyreek is taking another step this year. He's just too good to hold back and he fits to well with Mahomes. He will likely be the first or second WR off the board next year after he pops for 1400/12 or something silly like that. He's an ascending player imo. 

 
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Thought Robinson and Landry were pretty big reaches. I'm not confident either of them are top-25 WR's. They are about 2 1/2 rounds lower on my board. Doug Baldwin after those guys is crazy to me. Speaking of Baldwin, he's a nice pick in round 4 of a PPR league. He was likely going round 2 a week or two ago. That is a pretty big fall, considering we have zero reason to believe he isn't ready for week 1.

McCoy is an interesting pick. That is probably a round higher than I'd want to take him, but if nothing comes off his off field stuff, he a full round too low.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
seriously, Braude went WR-WR-WR including both Minny WR, and now not up again until pick 47
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The intro is a little confusing to me.  It mentions a premium on WR with the ability to get 4 WRs in your lineup with a flex, but this setup is the same as your standard MFL10 BB draft, ie:

1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 DST, 1 flex (RB/WR/TE)

There is going to be some nice RB value in the 4th/5th here with Collins, Guice, Henry, Ajayi, Miller etc still available.

 
Buck Bradcanon said:
The intro is a little confusing to me.  It mentions a premium on WR with the ability to get 4 WRs in your lineup with a flex, but this setup is the same as your standard MFL10 BB draft, ie:

1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 DST, 1 flex (RB/WR/TE)

There is going to be some nice RB value in the 4th/5th here with Collins, Guice, Henry, Ajayi, Miller etc still available.
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i'll be honest, i didn't even look at that intro.  i agree it's not so remarkable, but the draft makes a little more sense to me now.

 
Milkman said:
Love the Jordan Howard pick as well. 

Mixon looks incredible on tape to me. It was just the entire offense was bad. I expect a LeVeon Bell type turn around this year. They fixed their OL a little and he's positioned to break out. Tyreek is taking another step this year. He's just too good to hold back and he fits to well with Mahomes. He will likely be the first or second WR off the board next year after he pops for 1400/12 or something silly like that. He's an ascending player imo. 
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It took Brown 3 years of putting up season averages of 120ish catches 1600+ 11 tds before he was considered top 2 receiver with OBJ because he isn't 6'4". Hill will need 2 more monster seasons of 100+ catches 1400 + yards and 12 + tds before he cracks the top 5.  

 
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msudaisy26 said:
It took Brown 3 years of putting up season averages of 120ish catches 1600+ 11 tds before he was considered top 2 receiver with OBJ because he isn't 6'4". Hill will need 2 more monster seasons of 100+ catches 1400 + yards and 12 + tds before he cracks the top 5.  
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Yeah maybe but just because everybody hasn't caught on yet doesn't mean thats not his actual value. Good point though. 

 
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That 12 TD’s isn’t happening. I think you need to take some time and look at what you’re suggesting vs what is actually the metrics from within where Reid derives his offense. I have no doubt he can still produce as a high efficiency outlier but if he isn’t going to get red zone targets he’s not going to keep scoring the long TD’s at the clip he’s been doing. It’s also going to be really hard to stretch out the yardage further if he’s only going to see around 100 targets. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/redzone-receiving.htm

 
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Bojang0301 said:
That 12 TD’s isn’t happening. I think you need to take some time and look at what you’re suggesting vs what is actually the metrics from within where Reid derives his offense. I have no doubt he can still produce as a high efficiency outlier but if he isn’t going to get red zone targets he’s not going to keep scoring the long TD’s at the clip he’s been doing. It’s also going to be really hard to stretch out the yardage further if he’s only going to see around 100 targets. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/redzone-receiving.htm
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How many TD's did he have his rookie year? His usage in the red zone was better no? Why would he stay at 100 targets? 

 
Cjw_55106 said:
Far? It was three picks. If Keenum was still there, I’d prefer Thielen. With Cousins’ better arm, I prefer Diggs. 
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I'm actually surprised Thielen goes ahead of Diggs in most drafts.  I'm all over Diggs this year, and no way I'm taking his teammate over him.

 
Thielen is such a sick WR. Sneaky good. One of the best WR in the league at getting DBs off balance. Plus he has some of the best hands in the league. He's like a bigger, slightly slower Antonio Brown and nobody values him like that. 

 
Nothing against Diggs. He is a great receiver in his own right. 

 
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Derrick Henry is still on the board, he should go in this 4th round.  Latest I've seen CMC get drafted so far and I've done 4 high stakes drafts myself.

 
Milkman said:
How many TD's did he have his rookie year? His usage in the red zone was better no? Why would he stay at 100 targets? 
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Well a couple different reasons on the 100 target front. I did a quick shuffle through Reid’s tenure as an NFL HC. To put up 1400 and 12 you need heavy volume plus efficiency. You’re talking 140+ targets. That has never happened under Reid. TO topped out under 130. On top of that I have concerns about the pecking order. There were few times when Reid’s #2 WR approached or went 100 targets (I see Kelce as the “WR 1” and that isn’t up for debate right now) but it was not locked in. Now we combine that with the addition of Watkins and the ambiguity of the roles and I don’t see the room for growth. If he gets lucky the top end you’re talking 120 targets but I wouldn’t feel comfortable projecting him there.

The TD’s are definitely out of whack. It would help if he was still partially being used as a RB. But he had 13 red zone targets in ‘16 and 4 in ‘17. Once again he would have to eat a major hunk of Kelce’s production to have growth in this area. Kelce had 20 RZ targets in ‘17 and 16 in ‘16.

Take a deep dive into Nuke Hopkins last season. He had 170+ targets and still was short 1400 yards. He had 13 TD’s and 19 red zone targets. Is that the kind of thing you see Andy Reid doing with Hill? He’s an amazing talent and fun to watch but he’s also been the only one of his kind to come into the NFL and do what he’s done to this point. He can still grow as a player and have a ceiling for production. The two are not married.

 
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Yeah, there's no way Hill is putting up 1400/12.  He might approach 1400 yards but it's hard seeing him get more than 10 TDs.  Anything is possible, but I'm not seeing him putting up Milkman's numbers. I can see 1200/10 as a doable ceiling.

 
Bojang0301 said:
Well a couple different reasons on the 100 target front. I did a quick shuffle through Reid’s tenure as an NFL HC. To put up 1400 and 12 you need heavy volume plus efficiency. You’re talking 140+ targets. That has never happened under Reid. TO topped out under 130. On top of that I have concerns about the pecking order. There were few times when Reid’s #2 WR approached or went 100 targets (I see Kelce as the “WR 1” and that isn’t up for debate right now) but it was not locked in. Now we combine that with the addition of Watkins and the ambiguity of the roles and I don’t see the room for growth. If he gets lucky the top end you’re talking 120 targets but I wouldn’t feel comfortable projecting him there.

The TD’s are definitely out of whack. It would help if he was still partially being used as a RB. But he had 13 red zone targets in ‘16 and 4 in ‘17. Once again he would have to eat a major hunk of Kelce’s production to have growth in this area. Kelce had 20 RZ targets in ‘17 and 16 in ‘16.

Take a deep dive into Nuke Hopkins last season. He had 170+ targets and still was short 1400 yards. He had 13 TD’s and 19 red zone targets. Is that the kind of thing you see Andy Reid doing with Hill? He’s an amazing talent and fun to watch but he’s also been the only one of his kind to come into the NFL and do what he’s done to this point. He can still grow as a player and have a ceiling for production. The two are not married.
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I get what you're saying. I don't agree that Kelce is WR1 this year but he was last year. Mahomes game is down the field. He's a gunslinger not a dink and dunker. 

Tyreek had 9 receptions over 40 yards last year. He's a big play waiting to happen. He had 7 TD receptions in 15 games with Alex Smith. Now he has a QB that loves taking shots down the field. I don't think it's totally out of the question to project 12 tds and 20-30 more targets in 16 games with a QB that fits Tyreeks skill set better. I mean we really haven't seen a player like Tyreek ever and it's not like he's bad at scoring TDs. He has 13 in 2 years with Alex Smith. TD's are notoriously hard to predict though.

I'm banking on several things that make me so high on Tyreek. 

1.  I see a special player when I watch Tyreek. A weapon that the NFL has never seen. People point out all the broken coverage that Tyreek scored on. He puts so much pressure on the defense they make more mistakes. It's because of his speed. Stress causes mental mistakes. 

2. I have never believed in Watkins much and I'm not about to now so I don't see him eating into Tyreeks target share at all. 

3. I think Mahomes is a good/great QB that fits Tyreeks skill set perfectly. Additionally Mahomes style of play doesn't fit Kelce as well. 

Anyway thanks for the response. 

 
One last thing and I'll stop this Tyreek debate. People think 1183 yards and 7 TDs is Tyreek's ceiling......with Mahomes that's his floor. They fit perfectly together. 

 
travdogg said:
Thought Robinson and Landry were pretty big reaches. I'm not confident either of them are top-25 WR's. They are about 2 1/2 rounds lower on my board. Doug Baldwin after those guys is crazy to me. Speaking of Baldwin, he's a nice pick in round 4 of a PPR league. He was likely going round 2 a week or two ago. That is a pretty big fall, considering we have zero reason to believe he isn't ready for week 1.

McCoy is an interesting pick. That is probably a round higher than I'd want to take him, but if nothing comes off his off field stuff, he a full round too low.
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I’m loving the value of Baldwin right now. A WR1 if you start RB/RB

 
Milkman said:
One last thing and I'll stop this Tyreek debate. People think 1183 yards and 7 TDs is Tyreek's ceiling......with Mahomes that's his floor. They fit perfectly together. 
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We don’t even know how good or bad Mahomes will be. Pump the breaks dude. I like Hill as well but Mahomes will be pivotal and he may end up sucking. 

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
We don’t even know how good or bad Mahomes will be. Pump the breaks dude. I like Hill as well but Mahomes will be pivotal and he may end up sucking. 
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Pump the breaks? You don't buy players low pumping the breaks. Love how Mahomes looks. Don't mind the INTs either. 

 
Milkman said:
Thielen is such a sick WR. Sneaky good. One of the best WR in the league at getting DBs off balance. Plus he has some of the best hands in the league. He's like a bigger, slightly slower Antonio Brown and nobody values him like that. 
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Milkman said:
Nothing against Diggs. He is a great receiver in his own right. 
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NFL, I'd rather have Theilen I think. Fantasy, I prefer Diggs. 

 
tangfoot said:
Mahomes is a far better dynasty asset than redraft.  I expect the entire KC offense to regress significantly this season.  Mahomes will flash at times, but he's essentially a rookie learning on the job.
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I would not at all be surprised if Mahomes flops. I agree with the dynasty comment. He has the talent I just don’t see him being consistent year 1. Could be eating my words at the end of the year but other than Kelce who I have as a keeper I won’t be drafting any Chiefs. 

 
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Chris Hogan @4.11 is way too early. I like the Adams and Mixon picks also. I’m not clear why bloom took Hilton over Adams. I’m also surprised by the jones pick #7 before Hopkins and Kamara.

 
Milkman said:
One last thing and I'll stop this Tyreek debate. People think 1183 yards and 7 TDs is Tyreek's ceiling......with Mahomes that's his floor. They fit perfectly together. 
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They may but Smith had an MVP type season and was the most efficient deep ball passer in the NFL last year. I know a lot of had to do with Hill but it’s asking a lot for a 2nd year QB with 1 start to duplicate or even improve on 4K yards and 26 TDs.

 
hardcoredx said:
Chris Hogan @4.11 is way too early. I like the Adams and Mixon picks also. I’m not clear why bloom took Hilton over Adams. I’m also surprised by the jones pick #7 before Hopkins and Kamara.
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I think that is a very good spot for Hogan. Why is it way too early? Hogan stays healthy, and 1,000-10 is very possible. I'd prefer Hogan to at least 5 of the WR's who went ahead of him.

Allen Robinson is still the biggest reach for me. He's a 6th rounder in my book. He's been semi-worthless for 3 years, and is coming off a major injury. Wouldn't touch him as anything higher than a WR3. 

Still liking that Baldwin pick the most. 

 
hardcoredx said:
Chris Hogan @4.11 is way too early. I like the Adams and Mixon picks also. I’m not clear why bloom took Hilton over Adams. I’m also surprised by the jones pick #7 before Hopkins and Kamara.
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I like TY this year a ton myself and think I would take him over Adams but its close.

Sig actually addressed this on Twitter. :nerd:

"Luck seems fine.  Hilton in top form, Adams concussions the tiebreaker."

 
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