ponchsox
Footballguy
Not necessarily. While I wouldn’t draft like he did, he could hit on late or ww RB.Added Hogan. Almost no chance to win with that roster imo. More like making some weird picks to get a reaction.
Not necessarily. While I wouldn’t draft like he did, he could hit on late or ww RB.Added Hogan. Almost no chance to win with that roster imo. More like making some weird picks to get a reaction.
Taking Burkhead also means taking Michel. Way too expensive to be tied up in an iffy backfield.Burkhead RB1. Interesting.
Over Ingram, Henry, Lamar Miller, Drake.
Not just that he took wrs but also risky ones imo. The Vikings defense is great, the running game should be better. I wouldn't draft both their wrs and then add Hogan. Needs a lot of things to go right for this team to win.Not necessarily. While I wouldn’t draft like he did, he could hit on late or ww RB.
I'd have no problem taking Burkhead over Ingram or Miller. Drake is someone I have no idea what to make of. I have him somewhere between 10-30 at RB. I'd probably take him over Burkhead, but wouldn't feel good about it. That said, Henry feels like a big steal at this point. I think he's clearly ahead of all these guys, and Penny as well, who went shortly thereafter.Burkhead RB1. Interesting.
Over Ingram, Henry, Lamar Miller, Drake.
It is but I believe in Mahome's talent and Hill did have a lot to do with Alex Smiths career year. Hill made Smith not the other way around. His career stats prove that.They may but Smith had an MVP type season and was the most efficient deep ball passer in the NFL last year. I know a lot of had to do with Hill but it’s asking a lot for a 2nd year QB with 1 start to duplicate or even improve on 4K yards and 26 TDs.
Jimmy Graham moved like a tranquilized elephant last year, he's off my draft board - along with Penny since that run game will be a dumpster fire no matter which way you slice it.I'd have no problem taking Burkhead over Ingram or Miller. Drake is someone I have no idea what to make of. I have him somewhere between 10-30 at RB. I'd probably take him over Burkhead, but wouldn't feel good about it. That said, Henry feels like a big steal at this point. I think he's clearly ahead of all these guys, and Penny as well, who went shortly thereafter.
I know expert leagues fade QB's, but man, I would have taken Rodgers by now. He's a steal in round 5, and I think he could fall even further. Somewhat related, I'm a little surprised by no Jimmy Graham yet. Especially with guys like Sanders, Penny and Crabtree going. Maybe I'm higher on the Packers offense than the experts are, as i thought Adams went low as well.
I agree. Like COBB just went over Rodgers. Is Cobb really that important to a team that you'd pass on the clear top QB? SOmetimes people take the 'let qb's slide" thing too far. Tremendous value to whoever jumps on him now.I know expert leagues fade QB's, but man, I would have taken Rodgers by now. He's a steal in round 5, and I think he could fall even further.
It’s like a game of chicken so that they can keep their “expert” cred.I agree. Like COBB just went over Rodgers. Is Cobb really that important to a team that you'd pass on the clear top QB? SOmetimes people take the 'let qb's slide" thing too far. Tremendous value to whoever jumps on him now.
It’s absurd, really. I get that his ADP is on the rise since the news Michel will miss some time, but as soon Michel hits the field, Burkhead’s value falls of a cliff. If I’m drafting a RB at that spot, which I probably won’t, I want a guy that will keep the job. Get your RBs early and dive into that deep pool of WR in the middle rounds.Burkhead ADP is terrible...love that his ADP is hitting the 4th round...what a joke.
Glad to see you say this on Graham. I have more than my fair share of him so far and I need to back off a bit I think. But with Rodgers feeding him in the redzone I could see 8-10 TDs to go with a small yardage number. I'm torn.Jimmy Graham moved like a tranquilized elephant last year, he's off my draft board - along with Penny since that run game will be a dumpster fire no matter which way you slice it.
A tranquilized elephant that had 10 TD's, while playing through injury, in a lesser(when compared to this year) passing game. I agree Graham's tape was rough, just not sure it matters for fantasy. Green Bay saw the same tape and signed him to a massive deal. Graham looked pretty great in 2016. He's my TE4.Jimmy Graham moved like a tranquilized elephant last year, he's off my draft board - along with Penny since that run game will be a dumpster fire no matter which way you slice it.
That's about a round high for me. I get the pick, but its not great value in my opinion. I love Bloom's RB's and very much think he's reached on both his WR's.Everybody on board w/ Sig's Edelman pick Return from ACL out w/ four-game suspension to start the Season Pretty sure the shark move would be Dorsett in later rounds Now I would have rather seen Flash drafted so my view is just bias
Contender for worst post of the season right here.Drake is a terrible pick anywhere in the first 10 rounds...I don't care what his ADP is.
100% to both points. Should prob go to the “players I want no part of” thread right now and post Marlon Mack. Would not surprise me at all if he’s getting less than half the carries by midseason. Prettttty sure Rodgers belongs ahead of him.That's about a round high for me. I get the pick, but its not great value in my opinion. I love Bloom's RB's and very much think he's reached on both his WR's.
I still can't believe Rodgers is there 65 picks in. Marlon Mack goes ahead of Rodgers? Mack is my new worst pick. 63rd overall for a guy who is likely splitting with 2 other guys, in a bad running offense is such a reach. At least 4 rounds early for me.
Derrick Henry at #62 to Clay is the biggest steal so far. No risk at all that late, and he's a guy who has 12+ TD's in his range of possible outcomes.
It feels like performance art.It’s like a game of chicken so that they can keep their “expert” cred.I agree. Like COBB just went over Rodgers. Is Cobb really that important to a team that you'd pass on the clear top QB? SOmetimes people take the 'let qb's slide" thing too far. Tremendous value to whoever jumps on him now.
I dunno about QB just yet Think I'd like to see Sig take Evan Engrams next Now if that ain't followed up by a few TE's leaving the board? Then maybe pull the trigger on a QB Process being that ya wanna start trends more so than being late Sig's probably going WR... maybe Funchess (concerns on their OLine health) Also, I understand the ARod love but I kinda like the idea of going Cousins whose probably not gonna be drafted before the likes of ARod n' suchThat's about a round high for me. I get the pick, but its not great value in my opinion. I love Bloom's RB's and very much think he's reached on both his WR's.
I still can't believe Rodgers is there 65 picks in. Marlon Mack goes ahead of Rodgers? Mack is my new worst pick. 63rd overall for a guy who is likely splitting with 2 other guys, in a bad running offense is such a reach. At least 4 rounds early for me.
Derrick Henry at #62 to Clay is the biggest steal so far. No risk at all that late, and he's a guy who has 12+ TD's in his range of possible outcomes.
Ya but we're in the 7th round. That is value no matter how you spin it. He's gotta go soon. He's gotta!I dunno about QB just yet Think I'd like to see Sig take Evan Engrams next Now if that ain't followed up by a few TE's leaving the board? Then maybe pull the trigger on a QB Process being that ya wanna start trends more so than being late Sig's probably going WR... maybe Funchess (concerns on their OLine health) Also, I understand the ARod love but I kinda like the idea of going Cousins whose probably not gonna be drafted before the likes of ARod n' such
(Truly crazy but yet another RB could really dictate a trend) Funny to see the backs not drafted yet Hyde, Chubb, Crowell I mean their gonna be reaching soon to go RB
Here's something I posted in another thread a while ago (minor changes to reflect different thread). As to the above, he was at 1183 yards LAST YEAR and missed a game and only got 105 targets. As a 2nd year WR. How is 1200 his ceiling based on that? Now, maybe 10 TDs is a reasonable ceiling, but TDs can be fluky so I don't think 12 is out of the question. I do think 1400/10 is a stat line that he's perfectly capable of hitting this year. Anyway, see below for my previous post:Yeah, there's no way Hill is putting up 1400/12. He might approach 1400 yards but it's hard seeing him get more than 10 TDs. Anything is possible, but I'm not seeing him putting up Milkman's numbers. I can see 1200/10 as a doable ceiling.
About time. He should have gone around the 4-5 turn in my opinion. Steal of the draft thus far. Rodgers-Graham-Henry in that order.Deamon said:HE JUST WENT!!!!!
Exactly. He's special. Now you are giving him a QB that fits him better. He has legitimate #1 WR in FF upside with just 1.5 more targets a game.Here's something I posted in another thread a while ago (minor changes to reflect different thread). As to the above, he was at 1183 yards LAST YEAR and missed a game and only got 105 targets. As a 2nd year WR. How is 1200 his ceiling based on that? Now, maybe 10 TDs is a reasonable ceiling, but TDs can be fluky so I don't think 12 is out of the question. I do think 1400/10 is a stat line that he's perfectly capable of hitting this year. Anyway, see below for my previous post:
In 1 ppr, Tyreek Hill finished as WR8 with 16 ppg. I'm going to leave off OBJ because he missed most of the season. Here are the 6 guys who finished ahead of him.
A. Brown -- 22 ppg
Hopkins -- 20.8 ppg
K. Allen -- 17.4 ppg
Landry -- 16.5 ppg
Fitzgerald -- 16.5 ppg
M. Thomas -- 16.2 ppg
T. Hill -- 16 ppg
When looking at that, only Hopkins and Brown performed significantly better than Hill and Allen about 1.5 ppg better. The rest were really close. But, now look at this:
A. Brown -- 162 targets
Hopkins -- 174 targets
Allen -- 159 targets
Landry -- 161 targets
Fitzgerald -- 161 targets
M. Thomas -- 149 targerts
Tyreek Hill -- 105 targets
One of these things is not like the others. On a per target basis, Hill was a fantasy monster and better than every WR ahead of him. If you give Hill 50% more targets and put him in the same range as the others (and actually would still be behind all but Thomas in targets), then he'd rate out at 24 ppg. Uh, wow?
Of course you can't just say his efficiency would remain the same nor can you say that he will get more targets nor can you say he's going to keep up that same kind of per target production. But, to add to that, during his rookie year he was at 12.5 ppg but only received 83 targets. Which is almost an identical ppg rate per target as 2017. So maybe he really is that good?
Once again, if you put his targets up with those other WRs, he would have outscored them all. So that makes it less likely that 2017 was some kind of fluke. And he's the youngest player on that list to boot.
While there's no guarantee Hill is going to get better, if his targets increase and he remains the same WR he's been the past 2 years, he has legit upside to be a difference maker like Hopkins or Brown.
Tell you what if any team needed an advantage at QB besides Sig its the team that drafted Rodgers I mean I don't dislike Fuller but hes had two Seasons to hit at least 750 yds Basically hes joining a small club to eclipse 1,000 yds now More or less a Jones injury and hes done at the WR positionDeamon said:HE JUST WENT!!!!!
I get what you’re saying but part of drafting is knowing your leaguemates. Zacharison and Carter aren’t touching a QB until way after the 10th, if not out and out streaming. I think you’re right to say it was unjustifiable way before the pick but it’s clear everyone is employing a late round QB theory. So of course they’re seeing who blinks first. I bet Russell Wilson now goes off the board soon.For the record I generally like to wait on a QB, but Rodgers falling to 7.03 is an absolute joke. I mean I get these "experts" need to follow the "you can always get a QB late" mantra but at some point VBD has to come into play.
Outside of Derek Henry (and Ingram if he wasn't suspended) how can you justify any of these guys over Rodgers from a VBD perspective?
5.12 @LateRoundQB Davis, Corey TEN WR
6.01 @LateRoundQB Cobb, Randall GBP WR
6.02 @MikeClayNFL Henry, Derrick TEN RB
6.03 The Podfather Mack, Marlon IND RB
6.04.@FF_Contrarian Johnson, Kerryon DET RB
6.05 .@MattHarmon_BYB Goodwin, Marquise SFO WR
6.06 @FriscoJosh Nelson, Jordy OAK WR
6.07.@SigmundBloom Ingram, Mark NOS RB
6.08 .@CDCarter13 Garcon, Pierre SFO WR
6.09 @LordReebs Lewis, Dion TEN RB
6.10 @GrahamBarfield Fuller, Will HOU
6.11 @BraudeM Cohen, Tarik CHI RB
6.12 @EvanSilva Anderson, Robby NYJ WR
7.01 @EvanSilva Graham, Jimmy GBP
7.02 @BraudeM Engram, Evan NYG TE
7.03 .@GrahamBarfieldRodgers, Aaron GBP QB
not if you know everybody is waiting too...that's called good drafting.For the record I generally like to wait on a QB, but Rodgers falling to 7.03 is an absolute joke.
DeShaun Watson was the next QB at 8.04.I get what you’re saying but part of drafting is knowing your leaguemates. Zacharison and Carter aren’t touching a QB until way after the 10th, if not out and out streaming. I think you’re right to say it was unjustifiable way before the pick but it’s clear everyone is employing a late round QB theory. So of course they’re seeing who blinks first. I bet Russell Wilson now goes off the board soon.
So you are saying the difference between Randall Cobb and Pierre Garcon versus 7th or 8th round WRs is great than the difference between Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton or Kirk Cousins?not if you know everybody is waiting too...that's called good drafting.
No, I'm saying that if you can get the QB you want two rounds later...then you wait and continue to scoop up value.So you are saying the difference between Randall Cobb and Pierre Garcon versus 7th or 8th round WRs is great than the difference between Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton or Kirk Cousins?
Go back a page in this thread and look at ZWK's post. He explained it better than me.not if you know everybody is waiting too...that's called good drafting.
You don't know that before the fact - you're throwing out platitudes which sound nice but the reality is some guy took Pierre Garcon instead of Aaron Rodgers because he outsmarted himself.No, I'm saying that if you can get the QB you want two rounds later...then you wait and continue to scoop up value.
If you know that he's falling to 7.03 then passing on him in rounds 4 & 5 is a good move and passing on him in round 6 is a very bad move. Seems pretty simple.not if you know everybody is waiting too...that's called good drafting.For the record I generally like to wait on a QB, but Rodgers falling to 7.03 is an absolute joke.
these industry drafts are very similar, you typically know when QBs will go.You don't know that before the fact
Let's put this another way - if you knew for a fact that Rodgers was not going off the board before the 7.03 and you passed on him in Round 6 for some of the guys that were taken in Round 6 you're more interested in looking "cool" then winning the league. Do the math.these industry drafts are very similar, you typically know when QBs will go.
Remember, your projections and VBD outputs aren't the same as everybody else's.Let's put this another way - if you knew for a fact that Rodgers was not going off the board before the 7.03 and you passed on him in Round 6 for some of the guys that were taken in Round 6 you're more interested in looking "cool" then winning the league. Do the math.
This site was founded on VBD drafting. Taking a guy that gives you zero advantage over a guy that in his last healthy season outscored the QB2 by 45 points and the QB12 by 113 points in this scoring format is not "good drafting".
Oh really?Remember, your projections and VBD outputs aren't the same as everybody else's.
To be fair, if you have a lot of good drafters no teams really should look dominant. The talent and the value should be spread out almost evenly.Pretty much hate every one of those teams. The guys that were solid early made questionable picks later on or passed on screaming value like Rodgers letting them fall to the crazy drafting teams. Best team IMO is FriscoJosh assuming he can find a solid QB starter which seems likely, but Julio over Hopkins, Allen and Thomas is a poor choice IMO. Duke Johnson at RB33 is great value as well adding some solid floor to his rookie RB's upside.
Bloom started out great (the Hilton pick at least has major upside) but went totally off the rails with Edelman (suspended/ACL), Ingram (suspended), and Reed (perpetually injured.)
The strongest of these teams are mediocre at best with a few obvious bottom feeders. Likely end up with a very narrow spread among the leaders and it will come down to who avoids the injuries/busts and who hits on the late rounder that turns into a super stud.