Curtis Martin and Fred Taylor are Busts! (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

Did I get your attention? Good, because if you are drafting this weekend I would make it a point to not have to take these 2 RB unless it is absolutely necessary. I am going to talk about both of them and why I think that neither one is going to help you a whole lot.Curtis Martin: Plain and simple. The Jets already were ransacked by the Redskins and lost one of their best weapons in WR Coles. Now we find that they are without Chad Pennington, a much better WCO QB than Vinny T, their backup. In essence they are down 2/3 of their big 3 on offense. So now we are asking Martin to make up for Pennington and Coles. I realize he had an injury at the beginning of last season but when Vinny was in the game, with the WCO being used, Martin looked horrible. I am not even implying that Jordan will unseat him. In fact Jordan is showing that he is more of a short yard specialist in this offense at the moment. Curtis Martin does not have the breakaway speed needed to bust big plays anymore, IMO. Now teams are going to be game planning to shut him down. Can Vinny throw a bomb to a streaking Moss down the sidelines? He will have to in order to stretch the defense. The problem is the Jets have been using the WCO and Vinny is not suited for it. Lots of QBs are/were not. Marino, Fouts, Elway, Moon, none of them were meant for WCO. If the Jets go to a different playbook, I think it would wreak havoc on their WR corps who will be adjusting on the fly. None of this is good for Martin. What was his upside anyways, really? 1,100+ rushing and 6 TD? Maybe 50 catches too for another 350 yards. I think that was his upside. You see Martin's upside no longer outweighs his possible downside, IMO. Martin could also struggle mightily to even hit 1,000 rush and might not get many TD in a punchless NYJ offense. Fred Taylor: Let's see. The #1 WR is suspended for 4 games. There really is no #2, #3, #4, behind him that are worth a crap. Than you add in a lameduck QB that was trying to be dealt to the team we just talked about which means a couple of things.1. Brunell does not have it anymore at all which means the Jags are going to be even more 1 demensional.2. The Jags are rebuilding and don't care to keep Brunell at all. They might even go with Leftwich by mid season. This is not good for Freddie T.Fred Taylor does have that big game breakaway speed. He has not, I repeat not had multiple TD games since 2000. It is now 2003. I think the Jags were a much better team in 2000. Also Mr. Taylor has a medical record that is as long as Martin Sheen's arrest record(63 and counting for various protests he is in). And we have found out he has not always played through injuries other backs would have. I am not throwing it in the guy's face but he makes me very leery of taking him.Bottom Line: Curtis Martin and Fred Taylor fell to the end of the 3rd round in almost all the drafts I was in the past 2 weeks. I think there is a good reason for that. Just because a guy falls 5-10 spots below where every mag and site says they should be, does not mean that you have to find them a home on your squad. Why did the other 10-11 owners in your league leave him alone? Because the upside is not there for gigantic seasons for either of these RB. You have been warned: Proceed with caution friends.

 

[Workhorse]

I see Freddy Taylor in a situation similar to Corey Dillon over the past few years: SUPER talented back is the only real offensive option on the team. Doesn't mean that teams will be easily able to stop him, though. The injury thing is a part of his past, but is cause for concern.Still, if you are using ADP to downgrade players, you have a standing invite to join my $$$ league. I've made fortunes off of folks like you for over 10 years.

 

[Isotopes]

Good breakdown MOP. I'll agree that both of those rb's should be downgraded, but I don't think they are truly busts. Now, I wouldn't want either as my rb1, but might be willing to roll the dice on them if they fell to me in the 3rd.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Good stuff. I was thinking the same thing about Martin. I know a few people are bumping Martin up because now he has to "be the workhorse," but there's no way he can possibly carry a heavier load than he has recently, and frankly his numbers haven't been all that sensational when he has been the hoss. There was a time when Martin could consistently shred 8 man fronts, but not anymore IMO. I would still be comfortable with him as my RB3, but you probably won't be able to get him at proper value.

Taylor I'm worried about, but not quite so much just because he's younger and low-mileage. If he can stay healthy, he ought to be able to better his numbers from last year if for no other reason than that he'll score a half dozen or so extra tds. After all, it's not like Jax was an offensive juggernaut last season. Late 2nd or early 3rd seems about right for Taylor.

 

[Jetznut674]

i took c martin at 3.07 as my third rb - i think that is a good spot to take him if he lasts that long with the way rb's are flying off the board this year

 

[Juicecore]

I haven't drafted in the past couple of weeks, but I can tell you this. I'd love to pick up either of those backs in the bottom of the third. If we are talking about 12 team leagues, that will never happen in any of the leagues I'm in.

 

[jcjets]

Let me get this right.Martin is no good because he will be the focus of the offense that has the same OL for 2 years minus 1 guard. He got 1K in rushing yards last year with 2 bad ankles and didn't finish all of the game. So instead of Martin you'd rather have Dillon? W.Green? S.Davis? A.Smith.....help me here. Tell me which back you'd rather take that wouldn't already be off the board if you thinking about taking Martin. That is in a better situation then you describe.Which back has a QB that throws the deep ball better than Vinny? Kitna, Peete, Holcombe, or Brady?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I see Freddy Taylor in a situation similar to Corey Dillon over the past few years: SUPER talented back is the only real offensive option on the team. Doesn't mean that teams will be easily able to stop him, though. The injury thing is a part of his past, but is cause for concern.Still, if you are using ADP to downgrade players, you have a standing invite to join my $$$ league. I've made fortunes off of folks like you for over 10 years.

Have you seen Dillon's numbers or what he does to FF teamowners. I have never seen anyone able to make it to the Bowl with him as their main RB. Where do I send you the money?

 

[Jackal King]

Because the upside is not there for gigantic seasons for either of these RB.

MOP...I'd be interested in who you feel is downstream of Martin that falls into the category of 'gigantic season' potential? While I can't advance an argument that doesn't concede some diminshed expectations for either player...I'd have a hard time not taking either if they were to fall 10-12 spots beyond their ADP.Dillusioned CuMart fan.

 

[Anarchy99]

I have never been a huge Taylor fan, but in terms of Martin, you make a decent case but I have some thoughts going the other way.1998Martin: 1,650+ total yards/9 TDQB: TestaverdeWR: Chrebet & Keyshawn1999:Martin: 1,700+ combined yards/5 TDQB: TestaverdeWR: Chrebet & Keyshawn2000:Martin: 1,700+ combined yards/11 TDQB: TestaverdeWR: Chrebet & Ward2001:Martin: 1,800+ combined yards/10 TDQB: TestaverdeWR: Chrebet & ColesIt seems to me that Martin faired fairly well with Testaverde at QB. He also seemed to do well with Chrebet paired with a variety of other WR. Conway should produce better than Ward and be on par with Keyshawn.I grant you that all the key players here are older now and should have some diminished skills. Throw out the first few games last year when Martin was injured, and he produced at the same level as most of his career over the last 3/4 of last year.For teams drrafting in the first few slots of a draft this year, they could do a lot worse than Martin, and if they don't take him there will be even less to pick from as a solid #2 RB.In drafts I have been in, there have been roughly 19 RB taken in the first 22 picks (Martin included). Who else would you rather have as your RB2 as the #20 RB off the board?

 

[Billy Bats]

I wouldn't draft either guy onto your team. This is one of the reasons I'm taking two backs early, 1.10 and 2.1 and letting someone else make these two mistakes. Martin's role was reduced somewhat before training camp, like you said I can't see him being the workhorse he was of years past. And if he is, then he'll break down by week 10 and you won't have him for the playoffs anyway. Someone else an have these guys.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Let me get this right.Martin is no good because he will be the focus of the offense that has the same OL for 2 years minus 1 guard. He got 1K in rushing yards last year with 2 bad ankles and didn't finish all of the game. So instead of Martin you'd rather have Dillon? W.Green? S.Davis? A.Smith.....help me here. Tell me which back you'd rather take that wouldn't already be off the board if you thinking about taking Martin. That is in a better situation then you describe.Which back has a QB that throws the deep ball better than Vinny? Kitna, Peete, Holcombe, or Brady?

With your sig in name and avatar, how can you expect us tothink you are impartial to all of this.I took both Green and Davis in different leagues before Martin.Gren: Explosive offense with a QB that can air it out and WR that are much better than what the Jets have friend Davis: I can't defend that he is in a better situation but I do like he Panthers defense better and they will set up shorter fields and more scoring opps for Davis who is not pulled around the goal line.I didn't think this was going to sit well with Jets fans but that's OK.

 

[blenderfrog]

Still, if you are using ADP to downgrade players, you have a standing invite to join my $$$ league. I've made fortunes off of folks like you for over 10 years.

That's now what he said. He said that their ADP is already being downward adjusted by the circumstances around them. That is quite natural. My take is that he thinks that the ADP has not downward adjusted enough. I don't know if I agree with it, but I think it's a reasonable position. I think they're both good value 3rd round picks, and possibly mid to late 2nd rounders if it's a deep league or scoring leans very RB'ish.I wouldn't take either in the 1st or early 2nd. Prior to Jimmy Smith being suspended and the rumors about Brunnel getting moved or cut, I might have taken Fraud in the early 2nd.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Because the upside is not there for gigantic seasons for either of these RB.

MOP...I'd be interested in who you feel is downstream of Martin that falls into the category of 'gigantic season' potential? While I can't advance an argument that doesn't concede some diminshed expectations for either player...I'd have a hard time not taking either if they were to fall 10-12 spots beyond their ADP.Dillusioned CuMart fan.

Jackal, what I am saying is try not to have to take either of these 2.William Green, IMO, is the better pick in this bunch. He is young, a bit under the radar because most team owners remember his brutal start, and he plays in an offense that will be playing catch up a lot. And the weapons are in place with the Browns for them to actually play catch up.

 

[Vex_42]

MOP - another good post. Just to put in my 2 cents - I took Fragile Fred as my #2 RB to complement LaDanian. I think FT is worth taking a shot with as long as you have (1) a good #1 back other than FT; AND (2) you've got a solid #3 back to step in in case of an emergency ...

 

[Jackal King]

I would have selected Willie had he been there at 2.12 even before the Pennington injury. And, so did everyone else in the drafts I participated in. At the end of 2 beginning of 3, you have Martin and George, and then a whole slew of question marks.I think you have some alternatives with Taylor...but where Martin is sitting you have to take him and hope he bucks the odds.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

So instead of Martin you'd rather have Dillon? W.Green? S.Davis? A.Smith.....help me here.

Yes to Dillon. Yes to Green. Yes to SDavis.ASmith (or one of his evil clones) will be there two or three rounds later, so those two aren't comparable. (Obviously I would prefer CMart to Smith).

 

[Shrek]

Let me get this right.Martin is no good because he will be the focus of the offense that has the same OL for 2 years minus 1 guard. He got 1K in rushing yards last year with 2 bad ankles and didn't finish all of the game. So instead of Martin you'd rather have Dillon? W.Green? S.Davis? A.Smith.....help me here. Tell me which back you'd rather take that wouldn't already be off the board if you thinking about taking Martin. That is in a better situation then you describe.Which back has a QB that throws the deep ball better than Vinny? Kitna, Peete, Holcombe, or Brady?

With your sig in name and avatar, how can you expect us tothink you are impartial to all of this.I took both Green and Davis in different leagues before Martin.Gren: Explosive offense with a QB that can air it out and WR that are much better than what the Jets have friend Davis: I can't defend that he is in a better situation but I do like he Panthers defense better and they will set up shorter fields and more scoring opps for Davis who is not pulled around the goal line.I didn't think this was going to sit well with Jets fans but that's OK.

I do think Martin will struggle more this year, but that doesn't mean he is devoid of value. In my Yahoo! winners league, I took Holmes at 1.05, Randy Moss at 2.06, Stephen Davis at 3.05, and Martin at 4.06. I think Martin will be a decent 3 RB, and if the matchup is right (and it doesn't appear that there will be that many instances where it will be this year), he could start.

 

[Norse]

Have you seen Dillon's numbers or what he does to FF teamowners. I have never seen anyone able to make it to the Bowl with him as their main RB.

2001. Big Dance with Dillon as my #1. Dillon finished #6 Rb overall. The Bengals went 6-10 and were 31st in pts scored.My #2 back was Bettis ( Fu after Bus went down ) & Garner as 3rd back.It is possible to finish as a fantasy Top10 RB for a crappy team.

 

[downtowndragons]

Let me get this right.Martin is no good because he will be the focus of the offense that has the same OL for 2 years minus 1 guard.  He got 1K in rushing yards last year with 2 bad ankles and didn't finish all of the game.  So instead of Martin you'd rather have Dillon? W.Green? S.Davis? A.Smith.....help me here.  Tell me which back you'd rather take that wouldn't already be off the board if you thinking about taking Martin.  That is in a better situation then you describe.Which back has a QB that throws the deep ball better than Vinny? Kitna, Peete, Holcombe, or Brady?

With your sig in name and avatar, how can you expect us tothink you are impartial to all of this.I took both Green and Davis in different leagues before Martin.Gren: Explosive offense with a QB that can air it out and WR that are much better than what the Jets have friend Davis: I can't defend that he is in a better situation but I do like he Panthers defense better and they will set up shorter fields and more scoring opps for Davis who is not pulled around the goal line.I didn't think this was going to sit well with Jets fans but that's OK.

I have Davis (late 2nd) and Martin (early 3rd) plus J. Lewis as my #1. I agree Davis and Dillon before Martin, but Green? There are a lot of sharks in for a rude awakening about Cleveland's running game.Bad O-line, sad defense, and a pass first team. Recipe for bad RB numbers, IMO. Did I mention Green has not played worth dog pound crap in the pre-season?

 

[shadyridr]

He is young, a bit under the radar because most team owners remember his brutal start, and he plays in an offense that will be playing catch up a lot.

Which means alot of running? If the Browns are playing catchup Jamel White will be in the game as a pass receiver the same way NE used Kevin Faulk last year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

TIMEOUT!Instead of just argueing with every poster that likes these 2 guys, let's look at it a different way. And I have to say this is where the grading system I wrote threads/articles on, (see my RB grades in the members area or search on the boards) came in ultra handy on draft day. By tiering guys into different buckets/levels, you should end up with a few guys in Martin's area. The challenge is to make sure you do not get stuck or forced to take Martin/Taylor.When I see guys write things like, "Well if he falls to me I have to take him". WHY? Because you did not forsee that you would be stuck with him and just sat there in your draft and did not try to move up or down the board before you got to that point? What kind of Shark is that? You guys/gals are smarter than that I assume. You are letting others dictate your team. You might as well let your spouse pick for you with a projection cheasheet at that point.Stop projecting meaningless stats that take you out of evaluating. What if Martin has a Davis like year from last season and ends up with 800 yds and 4TD rushing? Quick, where does that move him on your little sheet? You are projecting on a guy that has had a long career and is definitely on the downside of that career. He is not going to be rushing for 100 yds a week. He will likely be pulled in and around the goal line so he has to break them from beyond the 20. Does he have that kind of speed still in the tank?Think folks, that's all I ask.

 

[Rayderr]

MOP - another good post. Just to put in my 2 cents - I took Fragile Fred as my #2 RB to complement LaDanian. I think FT is worth taking a shot with as long as you have (1) a good #1 back other than FT; AND (2) you've got a solid #3 back to step in in case of an emergency ...

LIkewise. Got Fred at the end of Round 2, he's my RB2 with Williams as RB1. I was a little hesitant, but he just had more upside than any other RB out there. I have James Stewart as a back up, and O.Smith, C. Buckhalter, A. Smith, K. Faulk, and J. Bettis are all on the waiver wire, so if disaster strikes, I should still fair pretty well.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Let me get this right.Martin is no good because he will be the focus of the offense that has the same OL for 2 years minus 1 guard.  He got 1K in rushing yards last year with 2 bad ankles and didn't finish all of the game.  So instead of Martin you'd rather have Dillon? W.Green? S.Davis? A.Smith.....help me here.  Tell me which back you'd rather take that wouldn't already be off the board if you thinking about taking Martin.  That is in a better situation then you describe.Which back has a QB that throws the deep ball better than Vinny? Kitna, Peete, Holcombe, or Brady?

With your sig in name and avatar, how can you expect us tothink you are impartial to all of this.I took both Green and Davis in different leagues before Martin.Gren: Explosive offense with a QB that can air it out and WR that are much better than what the Jets have friend Davis: I can't defend that he is in a better situation but I do like he Panthers defense better and they will set up shorter fields and more scoring opps for Davis who is not pulled around the goal line.I didn't think this was going to sit well with Jets fans but that's OK.

I do think Martin will struggle more this year, but that doesn't mean he is devoid of value. In my Yahoo! winners league, I took Holmes at 1.05, Randy Moss at 2.06, Stephen Davis at 3.05, and Martin at 4.06. I think Martin will be a decent 3 RB, and if the matchup is right (and it doesn't appear that there will be that many instances where it will be this year), he could start.

At 4.06 as your RB3, I would say that you did the right thing.

 

[Goat Herders]

I agree with MOP, and I thank him for his analysis.

However, I think many people will have a chance on Taylor in the 2nd and Martin in the 3rd. Granted, having Martin as your RB3 would be nice, but not if Taylor is your RB2.

Point being, whether you agree with MOP, et al. or not, MAkE SURE you don't end up with Taylor AND Martin. I think any savy FF'er knows taking a risk on one of these guys is indeed a risk, but its managable.

MAKE SURE YOU DON'T END UP WITH BOTH.

HERD

 

[jcjets]

Let me get this right.Martin is no good because he will be the focus of the offense that has the same OL for 2 years minus 1 guard. He got 1K in rushing yards last year with 2 bad ankles and didn't finish all of the game. So instead of Martin you'd rather have Dillon? W.Green? S.Davis? A.Smith.....help me here. Tell me which back you'd rather take that wouldn't already be off the board if you thinking about taking Martin. That is in a better situation then you describe.Which back has a QB that throws the deep ball better than Vinny? Kitna, Peete, Holcombe, or Brady?

With your sig in name and avatar, how can you expect us tothink you are impartial to all of this.I took both Green and Davis in different leagues before Martin.Gren: Explosive offense with a QB that can air it out and WR that are much better than what the Jets have friend Davis: I can't defend that he is in a better situation but I do like he Panthers defense better and they will set up shorter fields and more scoring opps for Davis who is not pulled around the goal line.I didn't think this was going to sit well with Jets fans but that's OK.

I am a Jet fan, but when it comes to FF I am as unbiased as anyone I know. I think the Jets even with Pennington would be lucky to have an 8-8 season this year. But Martin over his carrer has put up the same numbers year after year.A new team(Jets) he put up numbers.A new QB (Vinny) he put up numbers.He lost Keyshawn, and he was the offense - good numbersVinny gets hurt and Pennington starts - good numbers2 bad ankles, plays the whole year - good numbersS.Davis is a god back on a run first team, but he doesn't catch the ball like Curtis will, his Oline is unproven, but he has a better D.Dillon is on a offense with loads of talent but they never do anything, but Dillon is consistent just like Martin but on a worse teamGreen hasn't even played af ull season yet and you'd pick him over Martin or Dillon because he has potential? His D stinks, his Oline is in shambles, and J.White will play on third down. But go ahead and pick him.I have Martin as the #14 RB on my sheet making him a second round pick in most 12 team leagues. Your not going to win your league with Martin alone, but he'll give you good points week by week.

 

[Workhorse]

You are projecting on a guy that has had a long career and is definitely on the downside of that career. he is not going to be rushing for 100 yds a week. He will likely be pulled in and around the goal line so he has to break them from beyond the 20. Does he have that kind of speed still in the tank?

All good points. But those same points make Taylor an ATTRACTIVE pick.* Still relatively young.* Could rush for 100 yards per week with breakaway speed.* Will most likely NOT be pulled at the goalline this year now that Mack is gone.

 

[KING]

Bottom Line: Curtis Martin and Fred Taylor fell to the end of the 3rd round in almost all the drafts I was in the past 2 weeks.

the sefest pick, isnt always the best pick. i like fred in the 2nd round as a RB2. i would rather have him than someone like dillon, who has 2 monster games a year, and barely shows up in the other 14. sure fred will get hurt, you can count on that, but will it be 1 game or 10. the dude still has top 10 potential, and thats what you are drafting.i don't know what kind of leagues you are drafting in, but letting fred slip to the end of the 3rd sounds stupid. most of the drafts i've been involved in, he's gone early to mid 2nd.martin, on the other hand, looks like a late third. i think jordon will definitely cut into cmar's playing time. the loss of pennington also dosen't help. it may end up a rough season for the entire jets offense

 

[Reaper]

I took both Green and Davis in different leagues before Martin.

Whatever.. Martin is still the same value he was at the 17th-20th ranked back in the league....How many people had Green and Davis ahead of Martin BEFORE Chad went down? Not me.Last year he had 2 bad ankles from Game 1. He was playing on horrible Mush turf slipping at every home game and he lost 2 cogs of his OLThis year the OL has to adjust to the loss of 1 G (Not a ransack), he's healthy and rested and the turf is a much faster track.All that said, Martin is ranked right were he should be.. the 17th-20th back in the draft that if healthy will get you over 1,100 yards and 300 yards recieving.People go a little overboard.. You think teams weren't keying in on Martin with a 1st time starter at QB for much of last year? They keyed in on Martin for his whole career.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

That's fine JCJEts, I respect your right to pick who you want but I disagree with your Martin analysis.Martin has done it year after year after year after year after year after year....And last season he was horrible for FF owners. His start to the season put a lot of owners in holes they could not get out of, even with his end of season push.

 

[tietzjd]

I agree with MOP, and I thank him for his analysis.

However, I think many people will have a chance on Taylor in the 2nd and Martin in the 3rd. Granted, having Martin as your RB3 would be nice, but not if Taylor is your RB2.

Point being, whether you agree with MOP, et al. or not, MAkE SURE you don't end up with Taylor AND Martin. I think any savy FF'er knows taking a risk on one of these guys is indeed a risk, but its managable.

MAKE SURE YOU DON'T END UP WITH BOTH.

HERD

Could not agree more. Taylor of Cmartin as your 3 back is but having them as your 2nd and 3rd back is If you take Taylor or Cmart make sure you grab another back in the 5th round like Mack or barlow. Otherwise you be doing this all year.

 

[Hatchdog33]

I'm amazed at the lengths that people go to on this board to try to convince others NOT to take guys, most notably Freddy Taylor. It's almost as if these people want to take Taylor, but are afraid of the risk, and would feel better if no one else decided to take the risk on him. I traded for Taylor as my #2 behind Portis, and have Dunn behind him. I couldn't be happier about it. Everyone talks about Taylor as this huge injury risk, and yes he's had his share. I would classify his groin pull as a 'freak' injury. Outside of that, he's no more injury prone than Marshall, who is the darling of this board. The fact that he's come out publicly and said that he could've played in games that he didn't early in his career is positive to me. A lot of those instances he was asked to sit by coaches, and a couple he sat to be ready for the playoffs, which he regrets now. Del Rio is no idiot, and knows how valuable Freddy is. Both have said that he would have played if it was the regular season. Again, people's feelings on Taylor are well known and don't need to be brought up again. If you don't like him, don't take him. It's not like the people that have him or will take him DON'T know about his history and his situation. Risk is a huge part of winning and I'll gladly take his risk/reward.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Bottom Line: Curtis Martin and Fred Taylor fell to the end of the 3rd round in almost all the drafts I was in the past 2 weeks.

the sefest pick, isnt always the best pick. i like fred in the 2nd round as a RB2. i would rather have him than someone like dillon, who has 2 monster games a year, and barely shows up in the other 14. sure fred will get hurt, you can count on that, but will it be 1 game or 10. the dude still has top 10 potential, and thats what you are drafting.i don't know what kind of leagues you are drafting in, but letting fred slip to the end of the 3rd sounds stupid. most of the drafts i've been involved in, he's gone early to mid 2nd.martin, on the other hand, looks like a late third. i think jordon will definitely cut into cmar's playing time. the loss of pennington also dosen't help. it may end up a rough season for the entire jets offense

King, I run a league of strictly 1st graders. If you are older than 6 or 7 and literate, I won't allow you in the league.There are about 7,000 board memebers here. Over 5,000,000 people play FF. Let's cut it to 1 million just to be safe. Think all leagues are complete Sharks?Not ripping on you are picking a fight, I just find it funny when folks start questioning the integrity of my leagues. I also play in the HAFAX "Expurts" league which is made up of different site owners. I think i see the whole gammit in all of my leagues. Not everyone here strictly plays with Sharks. Folks don't like to fess to it, but they all have some money league they clean house in.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'm amazed at the lengths that people go to on this board to try to convince others NOT to take guys, most notably Freddy Taylor. It's almost as if these people want to take Taylor, but are afraid of the risk, and would feel better if no one else decided to take the risk on him. I traded for Taylor as my #2 behind Portis, and have Dunn behind him. I couldn't be happier about it. Everyone talks about Taylor as this huge injury risk, and yes he's had his share. I would classify his groin pull as a 'freak' injury. Outside of that, he's no more injury prone than Marshall, who is the darling of this board. The fact that he's come out publicly and said that he could've played in games that he didn't early in his career is positive to me. A lot of those instances he was asked to sit by coaches, and a couple he sat to be ready for the playoffs, which he regrets now. Del Rio is no idiot, and knows how valuable Freddy is. Both have said that he would have played if it was the regular season. Again, people's feelings on Taylor are well known and don't need to be brought up again. If you don't like him, don't take him. It's not like the people that have him or will take him DON'T know about his history and his situation. Risk is a huge part of winning and I'll gladly take his risk/reward.

That's a great post, even if I still will not invest in Freddie. Well said friend, post more often, please.I laughed hard on your 1st paragraph, there is probably a lot of truth to that in many threads. Good stuff.

 

[KING]

i think what it really boils down to is this; MOP is out here fishing, and fragile fred is always good bait.

 

[Chico]

I hate the Jets. There, now I feel better.Having said that, I took Martin as my #2 and am only slightly worried about it. Martin sucked last year, yes. But he had some painful injuries. Rewind two years (not that long ago), and here were Martin's stats with Vinny under center, I believe.Rushing: 16 games, 333 attempts, 1513 yards, 4.5 ypc, 10 TDsReceiving: 53 cathes, 320 yards, 0 TDsI am not suggesting that Martin will repeat those totals. But I am betting/hoping that he is closer to that than to his numbers from last year. And in the third or fourth round, that would be a bargain.

 

[Goat Herders]

The honest truth is that I don't downgrade Taylor based on his injuries nearly as much as I downgrade Taylor because I think the Jags will be TERRIBLE. Truthfully.Del Rio has a good track record so far, but being a first year headcoach is a different beast then being a coordinator. In my opinion, Del Rio is already showing some "wear" from his job (ex: He told the press this morning that they weren't trying to trade Brunell, which everyone knows is not the case). There is a fine line between being in charge and losing control of a locker room. I think Del Rio is (of course) still in control, but the grip is tenuous. Veteran's are already watching their backs, the 2nd year QB who had a nice camp is already an afterthought, the O-line is NOT good, and the WRs are in the bottom tier of the league. Gross....Similarly, the Smith situation virtually ensures at best a 1-3 start, and the sooner they fall out of the playoof hunt, the sooner Leftwich plays. Similarly, Taylor will be held out for nagging injuries on a 3-7 team where he wouldn't be held out on a 7-3 team.Furthermore, I think its a bit of an assumption to think that just because Mack is gone Taylor is going to automatically get all the goalline looks. He WILL get most of them. But its a mistake to think Kyle Brady (new 2 year deal) and Toefield/Joseph won't get a couple redzone TDs. Buyer beware, not because of injury, but b/c I have no reason to believe the Jags are going to be any good.HERD

 

[comfortably numb]

I took W Green and Dillon. as my 2nd and 3rd RB's.Martin was still on the board in the 3rd when I took Dillon.Taylor I would stay away from unless he was a 3rd RB. Or I felt I could nab someone in the 5-9 RD range that could end up being a #2RB if[when] Taylor fallsI.E. O Smith, Hambrick, Bettis, whoever it may be...Martin, does scare me.I do think he is on the downside of his career.Doesn't mean he can't crack 1200 yds and 7 TD's.I just think at this point in his career, those numbers would be a tad wishfull-not probableJets are in a very tough division, with an overall tough schedule.I would not be thrilled if Martin was my #2RBSincerelyOptimistic Jets fan

 

[Ministry of Pain]

i think what it really boils down to is this; MOP is out here fishing, and fragile fred is always good bait.

You think this is a fishing expedition?

 

[Workhorse]

Similarly, the Smith situation virtually ensures at best a 1-3 start, and the sooner they fall out of the playoof hunt, the sooner Leftwich plays. Similarly, Taylor will be held out for nagging injuries on a 3-7 team where he wouldn't be held out on a 7-3 team.Furthermore, I think its a bit of an assumption to think that just because Mack is gone Taylor is going to automatically get all the goalline looks. He WILL get most of them. But its a mistake to think Kyle Brady (new 2 year deal) and Toefield/Joseph won't get a couple redzone TDs. Buyer beware, not because of injury, but b/c I have no reason to believe the Jags are going to be any good.

This brings up an interesting point. Does a team hopelessly out of the playoffs restrict their number 1 back down the stretch? Or more importantly, does the #1 back on a double digit loss team lose fantasy effectiveness because his team stinks?There were 4 1,000 rushers on double digit loss teams last season:Taylor (Jax: 6-10)Bennett (Min: 6-10)Dillon (Cin: 2-14)Stewart (Det: 3-13)Taking a look at the production of those backs in the second half of the season:Taylor's last 8 games:* 624 yards rushing, 4 TDs, 145 yards receivingBennett's last 8 games:* 740 yards rushing, 3 TDs, 147 yards receivingDillon's last 8 games:* 617 yards rushing, 3 TDs, 154 yards receivingStewart's last 8 games:* 518 yards rushing, 1 TD, 185 yards receiving, 1 rec TDI don't see much of a dropoff there. I just don't think that there's much of a correllation between a team's record going south and the decline in fantasy production from its good players. Brunell wasn't very good last year, and the Jags were a pretty awful team. Yet Freddy T. still was putting up good numbers down the stretch.

 

[The Z Machine]

Alright MOP, you make some good points, but what RBs would you value over C-Mart? Eddie George? James Stewart? Stacey Mack? Trung Canidate? Troy Hambrick? To me with the Pennington injury, C-Mart moves down two notches to number the 17th RB slot ahead of those guys listed above. Now, if C-Mart is available early in the 3rd a 12 team league, then I would suggest you jump on him, even if he is your second back. I think you could ahve a great team with a Clinton Portis/Randy Moss/C-Mart led team. If you have one of the first 3-4 picks (which is a good thing), then I would suggest looking at C-Mart in the third round. Barring injury, he's gonna put up numbers, and although he may not win you the league by himself, he will be a solid contributor to your team.To say "avoid him no matter what" is ridiculous. All players have value. Some players have more value than others. If you don't think that C-Mart will put up better numbers than James Stewart, then by all means draft Stewart over Martin. Don't put the blinders on when evaluating talent and fantasy potential.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

MOP- good points.However, I do think you are underprojecting Martin's upside at 1450 and 6. Now, I don't expect more than this, but I think that he definitely can outperform these numbers. You have said he now lacks the homerun play ability- really I don't think he ever had it. He has never had blinding speed, and db's have always been able to catch him if they had a decent pursuit angle. IMO Martin has always been a guy that gets lots of 10-25 yard gains and a terrific inside runner. He also plays hurt. Now, I agree with you that he does have a downside of about 1000 total and 4, which seemed unimagnable prior to last year. However, if you are sitting at the end of round 2 /early 3 and Martin is still there, you have to consider him. You simply no longer have the warm fuzzy feeling that you are now "set at rb" and can ignore that position. You are going to have to follow this pick up with a strong rb 3-Dunn/Stewart/ etc.

 

[red]

i couldn't agree more....marginal rb #3's at best...both are being drafted way too high (no value) IMO...

 

[joffer]

I don't see Martin doing any worse than last year, which puts him in the RB16 - RB19 range, right where he should be. End of the 2nd round or early 3rd. Taylor is definitely worthy of a RB2 spot. Anywhere in the 2nd.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Someone in another thread talked about getting two of "The Big 19 RBs" for your FF team this year. I thought it was an excellent point. With the depth at QB and WR it is a necessity to land 2 of the Big 19. The Big 19 are the RBs that are assured of starting the season and getting the majority of touches. Curtis Martin definitely falls into this group. If you are playing in a smaller league (8-10 teams) maybe you can get him in the 3rd or 4th round as a 3rd RB. But if you are in a larger league (12-16 teams) he probably requires a 2nd or early 3rd round pick. Is Martin going to win you your league, probably not. Is he going to give you steady production out of your RB2, definitely. I'd put Martin in the 17-18-19 range with George & Garner. Not spectacular but certainly should see 20-30 touches per game.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Alright MOP, you make some good points, but what RBs would you value over C-Mart? Eddie George? James Stewart? Stacey Mack? Trung Canidate? Troy Hambrick? To me with the Pennington injury, C-Mart moves down two notches to number the 17th RB slot ahead of those guys listed above. Now, if C-Mart is available early in the 3rd a 12 team league, then I would suggest you jump on him, even if he is your second back. I think you could ahve a great team with a Clinton Portis/Randy Moss/C-Mart led team. If you have one of the first 3-4 picks (which is a good thing), then I would suggest looking at C-Mart in the third round. Barring injury, he's gonna put up numbers, and although he may not win you the league by himself, he will be a solid contributor to your team.To say "avoid him no matter what" is ridiculous. All players have value. Some players have more value than others. If you don't think that C-Mart will put up better numbers than James Stewart, then by all means draft Stewart over Martin. Don't put the blinders on when evaluating talent and fantasy potential.

Great points ZMan

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Come on MoP your not looking at the big Picture here. Fred Taylor and Martin are value Picks!!!!!!!Fellas I am in a league with MoP, and I have Martin and Taylor and love it. I have to wonder if MoP is not using this board to attack my team..LOL) The reason I love it is that these guys were amazing values. Lets look at my team:S. Alexander (RB1) 1st round pickFred Taylor (RB2) 4th round pick (no way I let the other owner get him this late)Curtis Martin (RB3) 3rd round (because he has less injury risk I took him before Freddie, bust Freddie has more upside after week #5)M. Morris (RB4)J. Fargus (RB5) Got him back as part of the P.Price trade)Marvin Harrison (WR1) 2nd round pickPeerless Price (WR2) Traded Chrebet and S. Mack for him after draft the same day everyone was paniced about Vick)Jerry Porter (WR3) Rod Gardner (WR4)A. Lellie (WR 5)Hasselbeck (QB1) 7th roundT. Green (QB2) 8th roundT. Heap (TE1) 5th roundI am not posting my roster to brag, but to prove a point. I could have taken a 2nd RB instead of taking the best value (Harrison) in the second round, and ended up with a J. Lewis or a Tiki Barber type back. Not bad, but neither of these guys are Harrison. By taking the best player available player, I add value to my team. Then I let the value fall to me. This league for example starts 3 WR's and a TE. Lets compare what my team could have been if I had not taken Harrison and followed with Taylor and Martin, and then traded for Price. RB First team: / My Team(example) / (Actual)A. Brooks / M. Hasselbeck or T. Green (depending on match-up)A. Alexander / A. AlexanderT. Barber / F. Taylor or C-Mart (depending on match-up)P. Burress / M. HarrisonH. Holt / P. Price (via trade)R. Gardner / J. Porter or Rod Gardner (depending on the match-up)B. Miller* / T. Heap*would have had to take RB3 instead of HeapBoth teams are pretty good, but which one would you want to go to battle with? I think you would take the actual team every day of the week. Is picking Martin or Taylor not without risks? Of course not! But if they let you steal (ie get value on) a few players along the way, by gambling on them in the late early rounds, then IMO they are great values. The value is not just from their low draft position but the other players you can get by drafting these guys late.P.S. and you can save the "nice Yahoo league" comments . While some of the owners in this league made some questionable picks, they all have at least 4+ years of fantasy experience. Like MoP said this message board is a very small part of the Fantasy Football Population (arn't we glad of that?) and most leagues have several "guppies".

 

[MrJimiT]

The love-loss was evident in my 10 team redraft:Taylor #25 3.05Martin was staring me in the face with the ninth pick in the 6th round and I took him as RB3.

 

[tietzjd]

The love-loss was evident in my 10 team redraft:Taylor #25 3.05Martin was staring me in the face with the ninth pick in the 6th round and I took him as RB3.

This is what I am hopeing for. Taylor to be there at 3.05 and Martin to fall to 5th round! Faulk,Tiki,Taylor,MArtin Nice back field when you have to start 2!

 

[The Z Machine]

The love-loss was evident in my 10 team redraft:Taylor #25 3.05Martin was staring me in the face with the ninth pick in the 6th round and I took him as RB3.

WTF kind of leagues let these guys slip so far? Who was taken above Freddie and C-Mart? I really question someone's logic when they select a back that either 1) splits carries with someone else (Barlow), 2) Has net even been officially named the starter (Canidate), or 3) Has proven absolutely nothing (Hambrick or Mack).Maybe your league si small and the guys like to select QBs and WR2's over backup RBs. This is not how most leagues draft as far as I've seen.