I'd say the odds of him hitting are about 85%. The problem is he might not be around the NFL for long. If his knee is as bad as some think, he probably won't be in the NFL in 4 years. He played some great football with that same knee in 2010 though. The guy is very talented and also went to a good situation in T.B. I'd say if your looking for a quality DE for the next 2-3 years you grab him and don't look back. Just don't draft him expecting him to be around for 5-7 years. While his knee might not be degenerative, there was so much smoke this off season, I'm concerned about his long term prospects.