bostonfred said:
Can we stop with the word jag?
Veach said it best when they went out to get damien Williams last off season. They were looking for a backup rb and when they were reviewing Williams they said he's not a backup, he's a "borderline starter".
That was before the 2018 season. I think it's a good insight into how they see him. A borderline starter. Not a stud. Not an elite player at his position. Not a career backup. Not a journeyman. Not a role player. It's a good term - a borderline starter. It means they could upgrade the position, but they don't necessarily have to.
Since then, he played well when called upon, and if anything played better than they'd hoped or expected. He's a better receiver than a runner, but they gave him 25 carries against the colts in the playoffs and trusted him to run it on 4th and 1 twice. They extended his contract in December, almost immediately after seeing him carry the load the first time. It was not for huge money, but also without having seen him crush it in the playoffs.
They didn't sign a top free agent, and they didn't spend a day one or day two draft pick on a running back. They called Williams the starter all through the offseason, they've treated him like the other starters, playing him sparingly and he excelled with that long touchdown reception.
Thompson has also done well. You know what he looks like? A borderline starter. A guy who could take the keys to the Lamborghini if called upon, and do pretty well. If something happens to Williams, he'd probably be a high end rb2 or low end rb1. He's probably going to get a handful of touches, and if he does real well he might even earn a 1b role. But the 1a role doesn't seem to be up for grabs unless something happens to Williams.
That makes Thompson a very high upside backup for redraft - the kind you should take ahead of bad rb1s or even some rbbc "starters" who will outperform him early.
For dynasty, the upside is a little higher - you're hoping he becomes the starter and stays the starter. But guess what will happen if he does? You'll still have half of everybody talking about how he is a jag driving a Lamborghini, and you'll still be watching every draft with your hands over your eyes when the chiefs pick. He's younger than Williams, sure, but the same issues exist. He's a jag who looked good in a couple preseason games and in practice against guys who aren't good enough to start for the chiefs.
People spending early firsts on him in rookie drafts are paying the absolute maximum for the hype. It might pay off, and he could end up being better than a lot of the consensus early picks like when Jordan Howard was a better pick than the consensus top picks doctson, treadwell and Coleman at the top of another weak draft. I won't argue with anyone getting their guy, i just think an honest assessment of the situation says that's a little too high.
Don’t disagree with any of this.
I was able to land him 16.05 in a PPR IDP, which is roughly the equivalent to a 12th rounder in non-IDP. It was prior to peak hype & I felt the value was correct. Plus we have 28 man teams & as a guy who went WR/WR/WR a big part of my strategy is to stack up on lottery ticket RBs (May have already hit one with singletary)
but that all said, I think there’s an added perception that DWill is injury prone. Like many, I tend to think injuries are random, and it’s an unfair label to slap on someone - but much of the hype I’ve seen on Thompson always seems to include mention of DWill’s inability to stay healthy.
Whether it’s fair or not, it’s definitely driven up DWill’s price tag by a lot.
I drafted him with 2 expectations:
1. He could have stand-alone flex value if Reed opts to incorporate him into the offense,
and
2. IF DWill misses time he’s a plug & play borderline RB1 merely because of the situation - e.g. stepping into a Lamborghini of an offense. But that was the low % play, and it feels like people are banking on it as though it’s a lock.
I think your assessment of him is fair - and those investing high picks in redraft will likely end up regretting it unless DWill goes down with an injury early. You can’t draft the dude as a RB3/Flex. You can draft him as a RB5 who you hope might develop into a Flex play or better.
seems like we see the same thing happen every year. Value player get hyped up to the point that the draft equity required to pick them exceeds their upside value.
Call it “Larry Johnson syndrome”. IIRC, the year Priest went down he was having a fine season. Just as beastly as ever. LJ, a ~6th round pick, wasn’t doing much at all.
Around week 3 he started getting traded for peanuts.
then Priest went down, Johnson blew up & the rest, as they say, is history.
And those LJ shareholders who didn’t dump/trade him felt like geniuses.
Every FF manager wants to be that guy. To get (cliche alert) “league-winning upside” out of a bench player/late pick. Hey, I do too.
But when you start reaching for those dudes, it detracts from their value. Now they’re not bench players. Those LJ owners weren’t really geniuses for taking him in the 5/6 rounds, they were damn lucky. Had Priest not been injured, they could easily have had a league losing pick.
Feels like that’s kinda how people are treating DThompson in redraft. What’s his ADP, 7th round? 8th? Woof. Gimme a stud QB or WR3 there or a RB3-4 who’ll be guaranteed touches instead.