Demaryius Thomas Value with Welker in Town (2 Viewers)

[David Yudkin]

I don't really know what to expect this year out of the Broncos offense, but apparently several folks already have their minds made up as to how things will play out. I realize we are months away from playing any games, but given what we know about their roster right now, I would be interested to see a breakdown of how Denver's passing game will end up. I would welcome people to post their individual projections for each player in the passing game. Please include targets, receptions, yardage, and TDs for anyone with 20+ receptions (and maybe a line item as OTHER lumping in the bit players). There were 7 guys with 20 or more receptions last year.

I have been suggesting all along that adding Welker may make Denver a better team, but he may not make their total passing numbers spike all that much. Manning had 400 completions in 583 attempts for 4659 yards and 37 TDs. That was only the second time he had 400 completions in a season, the second most passes he's thrown in a season, his second best yardage total, and his second most TD passes.

Things certainly look like they could align for a season for the ages, but Manning is going to be 37 this week. Maybe he will have another 9 games with 300+ yards and 9 games with 3 TD passes. But as I see it, adding Welker will diminish the production of all the other receivers in the passing game and Welker will not see as many targets as he did in NE. Maybe that means Manning gets a bump by 10% in effectiveness (say more YPA and a few more TD), but I would think that puts him in the 5000/40 category if everything worked out as expected. Certainly a superb season, but not a huge bump from his 2012 numbers. If people revese engineer their projections, I think it will be hard to have DT, ED, and WW all with great years (or similar to 2012 totals) unless people cut the numbers for everyone else to next to nothing (which I don't think will realistically happen).

Welker, Thomas, and Decker combined for 297-3852-29 last year. All the players not named Thomas or Decker accounted for 223-2173-14 for the Broncos in 2012. For those that want to try to fit the puzzle pieces together, have at it.

 

[CalBear]

2004 season as a point of reference for 2013 season? Anything is possible but I can't see those numbers

Other than TD's, there was minimal difference from 2012 vs. 2004 with Manning. The gun is weaker but the results weren't (and won't be as long as Thomas is there)IMO The 2013 Bronco top 3 WR are better than the 2004 one as a whole. I don't expect 49 TD's, but do expect 40-45. I expect Manning to be better a year removed from injury and the timing to be that much better in Year 2.

Expecting 40 TDs out of anyone is nuts. Calling the Broncos top 3 WR better than the 2004 Colts, two of whom are likely Hall of Fame candidates, is nuts. Expecting that Manning at age 37 (happy birthday, this weekend) will duplicate the best season of his career is nuts.Manning has thrown for 40+ TDs once in 15 years. With his 2012 totals, he's now thrown for 35+ TDs twice.

 

[jurb26]

2004 season as a point of reference for 2013 season? Anything is possible but I can't see those numbers

Other than TD's, there was minimal difference from 2012 vs. 2004 with Manning. The gun is weaker but the results weren't (and won't be as long as Thomas is there)IMO The 2013 Bronco top 3 WR are better than the 2004 one as a whole. I don't expect 49 TD's, but do expect 40-45. I expect Manning to be better a year removed from injury and the timing to be that much better in Year 2.

Expecting 40 TDs out of anyone is nuts. Calling the Broncos top 3 WR better than the 2004 Colts, two of whom are likely Hall of Fame candidates, is nuts. Expecting that Manning at age 37 (happy birthday, this weekend) will duplicate the best season of his career is nuts.Manning has thrown for 40+ TDs once in 15 years. With his 2012 totals, he's now thrown for 35+ TDs twice.

Manning should certainly be line for a nice season, but some of these expectations are NUTS. Someone is going to disappoint out of those 3 WRs IMO. There just isn't enough to go around at their likely prices. I for one expect that person to be Welker for the reasons I've stated earlier. I could easily be wrong though.

 

[SSOG]

I don't really know what to expect this year out of the Broncos offense, but apparently several folks already have their minds made up as to how things will play out. I realize we are months away from playing any games, but given what we know about their roster right now, I would be interested to see a breakdown of how Denver's passing game will end up. I would welcome people to post their individual projections for each player in the passing game. Please include targets, receptions, yardage, and TDs for anyone with 20+ receptions (and maybe a line item as OTHER lumping in the bit players). There were 7 guys with 20 or more receptions last year.I have been suggesting all along that adding Welker may make Denver a better team, but he may not make their total passing numbers spike all that much. Manning had 400 completions in 583 attempts for 4659 yards and 37 TDs. That was only the second time he had 400 completions in a season, the second most passes he's thrown in a season, his second best yardage total, and his second most TD passes.Things certainly look like they could align for a season for the ages, but Manning is going to be 37 this week. Maybe he will have another 9 games with 300+ yards and 9 games with 3 TD passes. But as I see it, adding Welker will diminish the production of all the other receivers in the passing game and Welker will not see as many targets as he did in NE. Maybe that means Manning gets a bump by 10% in effectiveness (say more YPA and a few more TD), but I would think that puts him in the 5000/40 category if everything worked out as expected. Certainly a superb season, but not a huge bump from his 2012 numbers. If people revese engineer their projections, I think it will be hard to have DT, ED, and WW all with great years (or similar to 2012 totals) unless people cut the numbers for everyone else to next to nothing (which I don't think will realistically happen).Welker, Thomas, and Decker combined for 297-3852-29 last year. All the players not named Thomas or Decker accounted for 223-2173-14 for the Broncos in 2012. For those that want to try to fit the puzzle pieces together, have at it.

Just first-blush estimates, without sanity checking beforehand, I'd expectemaryius- 85/1300/12Welker- 90/1100/8Decker- 80/1000/8Tamme- 50/500/4Dreessen- 40/350/2RBs- 60/500/2Other- 30/300/2Let's see what that totals out to... 5050 yards and 38 TDs. Looking at it, the yards came out a little bit higher and the TDs a little bit lower than I was shooting for. If I were projecting Manning first and breaking down by receiver after that, I'd be looking more at 4800 yards and 40-42 scores.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

25 % drop for Thomas with Welker

Anyone who thinks he will get the same number of targets a s last year is kidding themselves. A year older for manning means a year older for his weakening arm. Walker fits that role well.

 

[cstu]

Just first-blush estimates, without sanity checking beforehand, I'd expectemaryius- 85/1300/12Welker- 90/1100/8Decker- 80/1000/8Tamme- 50/500/4Dreessen- 40/350/2RBs- 60/500/2Other- 30/300/2Let's see what that totals out to... 5050 yards and 38 TDs. Looking at it, the yards came out a little bit higher and the TDs a little bit lower than I was shooting for. If I were projecting Manning first and breaking down by receiver after that, I'd be looking more at 4800 yards and 40-42 scores.

I have a hard imagining the offense becoming that unbalanced. Manning completed 450 passes in 2010 but the Colts were 28th in rushing attempts. I find your DT numbers reasonable, but I think Decker and Welker take a bigger hit than you're projecting. I would guess not more than 150 catches between the both of them.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I don't really know what to expect this year out of the Broncos offense, but apparently several folks already have their minds made up as to how things will play out. I realize we are months away from playing any games, but given what we know about their roster right now, I would be interested to see a breakdown of how Denver's passing game will end up. I would welcome people to post their individual projections for each player in the passing game. Please include targets, receptions, yardage, and TDs for anyone with 20+ receptions (and maybe a line item as OTHER lumping in the bit players). There were 7 guys with 20 or more receptions last year.I have been suggesting all along that adding Welker may make Denver a better team, but he may not make their total passing numbers spike all that much. Manning had 400 completions in 583 attempts for 4659 yards and 37 TDs. That was only the second time he had 400 completions in a season, the second most passes he's thrown in a season, his second best yardage total, and his second most TD passes.Things certainly look like they could align for a season for the ages, but Manning is going to be 37 this week. Maybe he will have another 9 games with 300+ yards and 9 games with 3 TD passes. But as I see it, adding Welker will diminish the production of all the other receivers in the passing game and Welker will not see as many targets as he did in NE. Maybe that means Manning gets a bump by 10% in effectiveness (say more YPA and a few more TD), but I would think that puts him in the 5000/40 category if everything worked out as expected. Certainly a superb season, but not a huge bump from his 2012 numbers. If people revese engineer their projections, I think it will be hard to have DT, ED, and WW all with great years (or similar to 2012 totals) unless people cut the numbers for everyone else to next to nothing (which I don't think will realistically happen).Welker, Thomas, and Decker combined for 297-3852-29 last year. All the players not named Thomas or Decker accounted for 223-2173-14 for the Broncos in 2012. For those that want to try to fit the puzzle pieces together, have at it.

its just common sense that if you bring in another talented WR, the others will have to share with him.

 

[FF Ninja]

I don't really know what to expect this year out of the Broncos offense, but apparently several folks already have their minds made up as to how things will play out. I realize we are months away from playing any games, but given what we know about their roster right now, I would be interested to see a breakdown of how Denver's passing game will end up. I would welcome people to post their individual projections for each player in the passing game. Please include targets, receptions, yardage, and TDs for anyone with 20+ receptions (and maybe a line item as OTHER lumping in the bit players). There were 7 guys with 20 or more receptions last year.I have been suggesting all along that adding Welker may make Denver a better team, but he may not make their total passing numbers spike all that much. Manning had 400 completions in 583 attempts for 4659 yards and 37 TDs. That was only the second time he had 400 completions in a season, the second most passes he's thrown in a season, his second best yardage total, and his second most TD passes.Things certainly look like they could align for a season for the ages, but Manning is going to be 37 this week. Maybe he will have another 9 games with 300+ yards and 9 games with 3 TD passes. But as I see it, adding Welker will diminish the production of all the other receivers in the passing game and Welker will not see as many targets as he did in NE. Maybe that means Manning gets a bump by 10% in effectiveness (say more YPA and a few more TD), but I would think that puts him in the 5000/40 category if everything worked out as expected. Certainly a superb season, but not a huge bump from his 2012 numbers. If people revese engineer their projections, I think it will be hard to have DT, ED, and WW all with great years (or similar to 2012 totals) unless people cut the numbers for everyone else to next to nothing (which I don't think will realistically happen).Welker, Thomas, and Decker combined for 297-3852-29 last year. All the players not named Thomas or Decker accounted for 223-2173-14 for the Broncos in 2012. For those that want to try to fit the puzzle pieces together, have at it.

I'll definitely take a shot at this, but I'd really want to see what they do at RB first. If their offensive line is healthy this year and they acquire someone like DeAngelo Williams, I don't think Peyton would be too proud to utilize the ground game. They had 449 RB rushes last year, which is solid, and 587 passing attempts. Even with a good running game, that split could be similar, but will the rushing TD vs. passing TD split be the same? It was 37 to 12 last year. Their 37 PTD ranked 3rd in the NFL while the rushing TDs tied for 13th-17th place. I really don't think anyone predicting over 40 receiving touchdowns is being realistic - 37 was Peyton's second highest total in 14 seasons! If they stand pat with Moreno/Hillman, then I could maybe see an optimistic ceiling of 40 PTD, but I wouldn't bet on it. If they upgrade their RB corps, then I'd absolutely bet the under. I also don't think Manning has the third 400 completion season of his career next year.For now I'll work with the generous assumption of 400 completions:Thomas - 80/1250/8Welker - 80/950/6Decker - 70/900/8Tamme/Dreessen - 80/800/6RBs - 70/550/3Other - 20/200/1I didn't check my total until after RBs, which left me with just 20 rec for others which I think is reasonable on this team should their top 3 WRs and top 2 TEs stay healthy.So 400/4650/32 which I think is probably a bit heavy on the completions and yards, but right in line with his historical passing TD totals (31.1). If you take out his high and low PTD seasons, you get 30.1. So I think a prediction of 40 PTD is not impossible, but definitely improbable. His average comp/att per season is 363/557. Average comp % is 65.2% while last year he was at 68.6%. Average ypa is 7.6 while last year was 8.0.

 

[SSOG]

its just common sense that if you bring in another talented WR, the others will have to share with him.

It's not a zero sum game, though. In 2003, Philly's players had 279 receptions. In 2004, Philly brought in Terrell Owens and all other players combined for... 257 receptions. It was just a 22 reception drop, because Philly threw more completions overall. In 2002, all Buffalo receivers except for Peerless Price combined for 284 receptions. In 2003, Price walked (taking his 94 receptions with him), and all Buffalo receivers combined for... 293 receptions, an increase of just 9 grabs despite no longer having to "share" with Peerless. These are two of the most extreme examples, but they definitely illustrate the "rising tide lifts all boats" concept. I don't think that there's any question that the total receptions by all non-Welker players will go down. The question is whose, and by how much. If Denver gets 20 extra completions next year (a not unrealistic scenario given the addition of Welker), and Welker gets all of Stokley's receptions, then if Welker finishes with 90 grabs that represents just 25 extra catches coming from everyone else's share. Spread that around evenly and we're talking maybe 5 fewer catches per player.

 

[Phenix]

I don't really know what to expect this year out of the Broncos offense, but apparently several folks already have their minds made up as to how things will play out. I realize we are months away from playing any games, but given what we know about their roster right now, I would be interested to see a breakdown of how Denver's passing game will end up. I would welcome people to post their individual projections for each player in the passing game. Please include targets, receptions, yardage, and TDs for anyone with 20+ receptions (and maybe a line item as OTHER lumping in the bit players). There were 7 guys with 20 or more receptions last year.I have been suggesting all along that adding Welker may make Denver a better team, but he may not make their total passing numbers spike all that much. Manning had 400 completions in 583 attempts for 4659 yards and 37 TDs. That was only the second time he had 400 completions in a season, the second most passes he's thrown in a season, his second best yardage total, and his second most TD passes.Things certainly look like they could align for a season for the ages, but Manning is going to be 37 this week. Maybe he will have another 9 games with 300+ yards and 9 games with 3 TD passes. But as I see it, adding Welker will diminish the production of all the other receivers in the passing game and Welker will not see as many targets as he did in NE. Maybe that means Manning gets a bump by 10% in effectiveness (say more YPA and a few more TD), but I would think that puts him in the 5000/40 category if everything worked out as expected. Certainly a superb season, but not a huge bump from his 2012 numbers. If people revese engineer their projections, I think it will be hard to have DT, ED, and WW all with great years (or similar to 2012 totals) unless people cut the numbers for everyone else to next to nothing (which I don't think will realistically happen).Welker, Thomas, and Decker combined for 297-3852-29 last year. All the players not named Thomas or Decker accounted for 223-2173-14 for the Broncos in 2012. For those that want to try to fit the puzzle pieces together, have at it.

I'll definitely take a shot at this, but I'd really want to see what they do at RB first. If their offensive line is healthy this year and they acquire someone like DeAngelo Williams, I don't think Peyton would be too proud to utilize the ground game. They had 449 RB rushes last year, which is solid, and 587 passing attempts. Even with a good running game, that split could be similar, but will the rushing TD vs. passing TD split be the same? It was 37 to 12 last year. Their 37 PTD ranked 3rd in the NFL while the rushing TDs tied for 13th-17th place. I really don't think anyone predicting over 40 receiving touchdowns is being realistic - 37 was Peyton's second highest total in 14 seasons! If they stand pat with Moreno/Hillman, then I could maybe see an optimistic ceiling of 40 PTD, but I wouldn't bet on it. If they upgrade their RB corps, then I'd absolutely bet the under. I also don't think Manning has the third 400 completion season of his career next year.For now I'll work with the generous assumption of 400 completions:Thomas - 80/1250/8Welker - 80/950/6Decker - 70/900/8Tamme/Dreessen - 80/800/6RBs - 70/550/3Other - 20/200/1I didn't check my total until after RBs, which left me with just 20 rec for others which I think is reasonable on this team should their top 3 WRs and top 2 TEs stay healthy.So 400/4650/32 which I think is probably a bit heavy on the completions and yards, but right in line with his historical passing TD totals (31.1). If you take out his high and low PTD seasons, you get 30.1. So I think a prediction of 40 PTD is not impossible, but definitely improbable. His average comp/att per season is 363/557. Average comp % is 65.2% while last year he was at 68.6%. Average ypa is 7.6 while last year was 8.0.

Fantasy Football 101Rule #1: Never bet against Peyton.They get him Welker and his Yards and TDs will go down? I have to say you look like you have an agenda.

 

[SSOG]

Fantasy Football 101Rule #1: Never bet against Peyton.They get him Welker and his Yards and TDs will go down? I have to say you look like you have an agenda.

I sincerely doubt that anyone here on either side of the debate (or anywhere else in the shark pool, for that matter) has any agenda beyond being the best and most accurate fantasy football owners they can be. When someone disagrees with us, our first thought is always "oh, the other guy is ignorant; he clearly doesn't know what I'm basing my opinion on, and as soon as I share that information, he will see the wisdom of my ways." When that doesn't work, we think "oh, the other guy is an idiot; he simply lacks the mental capacity to understand this data as well as I do, which is why he's reaching his faulty conclusions. He's probably biased and incapable of seeing it, so I shouldn't hold it against him if he's unable to reach the same state of enlightenment that I am." When the other guy demonstrates that he's actually pretty sharp, our final thought is "oh, the other guy is evil; he has the information necessary to reach the right conclusion, and he has the mental capacity required to make the leap. The fact that he doesn't agree with me proves that he has an agenda, or that he's a liar who is willfully misleading everyone else." That's the natural human progression when dealing with someone who disagrees with us- Ignorant > Idiot > Evil. The fact is that very often smart and well-intentioned people will be presented with the same data, make an earnest, good-faith effort to interpret it, and still reach different conclusions. It doesn't make one side better or worse than the other, it's just an inevitability. We all operate differently and have different approaches, beliefs, and heuristics. This is a very good thing- consensus reached through disagreement is much stronger than an untested consensus formed in an echo chamber of universal agreement. When reasonable minds differ on a topic, this is a cause for celebration, not dismay.

 

[Tibereas]

Fantasy Football 101Rule #1: Never bet against Peyton.They get him Welker and his Yards and TDs will go down? I have to say you look like you have an agenda.

I sincerely doubt that anyone here on either side of the debate (or anywhere else in the shark pool, for that matter) has any agenda beyond being the best and most accurate fantasy football owners they can be. When someone disagrees with us, our first thought is always "oh, the other guy is ignorant; he clearly doesn't know what I'm basing my opinion on, and as soon as I share that information, he will see the wisdom of my ways." When that doesn't work, we think "oh, the other guy is an idiot; he simply lacks the mental capacity to understand this data as well as I do, which is why he's reaching his faulty conclusions. He's probably biased and incapable of seeing it, so I shouldn't hold it against him if he's unable to reach the same state of enlightenment that I am." When the other guy demonstrates that he's actually pretty sharp, our final thought is "oh, the other guy is evil; he has the information necessary to reach the right conclusion, and he has the mental capacity required to make the leap. The fact that he doesn't agree with me proves that he has an agenda, or that he's a liar who is willfully misleading everyone else." That's the natural human progression when dealing with someone who disagrees with us- Ignorant > Idiot > Evil. The fact is that very often smart and well-intentioned people will be presented with the same data, make an earnest, good-faith effort to interpret it, and still reach different conclusions. It doesn't make one side better or worse than the other, it's just an inevitability. We all operate differently and have different approaches, beliefs, and heuristics. This is a very good thing- consensus reached through disagreement is much stronger than an untested consensus formed in an echo chamber of universal agreement. When reasonable minds differ on a topic, this is a cause for celebration, not dismay.

Very

 

[Phenix]

Fantasy Football 101Rule #1: Never bet against Peyton.They get him Welker and his Yards and TDs will go down? I have to say you look like you have an agenda.

I sincerely doubt that anyone here on either side of the debate (or anywhere else in the shark pool, for that matter) has any agenda beyond being the best and most accurate fantasy football owners they can be. When someone disagrees with us, our first thought is always "oh, the other guy is ignorant; he clearly doesn't know what I'm basing my opinion on, and as soon as I share that information, he will see the wisdom of my ways." When that doesn't work, we think "oh, the other guy is an idiot; he simply lacks the mental capacity to understand this data as well as I do, which is why he's reaching his faulty conclusions. He's probably biased and incapable of seeing it, so I shouldn't hold it against him if he's unable to reach the same state of enlightenment that I am." When the other guy demonstrates that he's actually pretty sharp, our final thought is "oh, the other guy is evil; he has the information necessary to reach the right conclusion, and he has the mental capacity required to make the leap. The fact that he doesn't agree with me proves that he has an agenda, or that he's a liar who is willfully misleading everyone else." That's the natural human progression when dealing with someone who disagrees with us- Ignorant > Idiot > Evil. The fact is that very often smart and well-intentioned people will be presented with the same data, make an earnest, good-faith effort to interpret it, and still reach different conclusions. It doesn't make one side better or worse than the other, it's just an inevitability. We all operate differently and have different approaches, beliefs, and heuristics. This is a very good thing- consensus reached through disagreement is much stronger than an untested consensus formed in an echo chamber of universal agreement. When reasonable minds differ on a topic, this is a cause for celebration, not dismay.

Totally disagree, but according to you that means its time to celebrate!

 

[squistion]

Fantasy Football 101Rule #1: Never bet against Peyton.

See 2011.

 

[David Yudkin]

Fantasy Football 101Rule #1: Never bet against Peyton.

I don't disagree that you could be right . . . but if you bet that Peyton would have had the yardage and TD totals he had last year in any other season, you would have lost that bet 13 times and won only once.

 

[FF Ninja]

I have to say you look like you have an agenda.

I'm a bit of an elitist d***, so frankly I find you a total waste of time to interact with, but I will tell you that I don't believe anyone I play with posts on this board so I don't know what kind of agenda I could have - I certainly don't think discussion on this board will affect a player's ADP in any way that would pertain to me. The only agenda I have is intelligent discussion of a disturbingly time consuming hobby. I'd like nothing more than to stumble upon a well thought out conclusion that helps me avert wasting a draft pick on a guy I overvalue or shines a light on a player I am undervaluing. The best way to do this is to show my logic and hope someone can poke a hole in it.So far your "I have him in dyno. He's a stud. The numbers don't have to add up, just know he'll be elite." has surprisingly not accomplished that yet.

 

[JamesTheScot]

I wouldn't worry about Thomas at all. He'll, I wouldn't worry about Decker either. Walker will be a complimentary player to them and this offense, not a focus. He should make the offense as a whole slinky better but I don't see Welker as having a significant fantasy impact for himself.

Seriously? Doesn't Manning love throwing to slot guys?

I'd say Manning loves throwing to the open guy and best option. Thomas and Decker are significantly better players than Welker at this point of their careers. I'd envision them being the best option far more than him.

Thing to consider is how Welker will compare to the opponent's nickel back or FS. If DT is drawing the best corner and Welker the 3rd best, that creates a potential mismatch which could easily cause a heady QB like Manning to target Welker.

 

[Ernol]

Fantasy Football 101Rule #1: Never bet against Peyton.They get him Welker and his Yards and TDs will go down? I have to say you look like you have an agenda.

I sincerely doubt that anyone here on either side of the debate (or anywhere else in the shark pool, for that matter) has any agenda beyond being the best and most accurate fantasy football owners they can be. When someone disagrees with us, our first thought is always "oh, the other guy is ignorant; he clearly doesn't know what I'm basing my opinion on, and as soon as I share that information, he will see the wisdom of my ways." When that doesn't work, we think "oh, the other guy is an idiot; he simply lacks the mental capacity to understand this data as well as I do, which is why he's reaching his faulty conclusions. He's probably biased and incapable of seeing it, so I shouldn't hold it against him if he's unable to reach the same state of enlightenment that I am." When the other guy demonstrates that he's actually pretty sharp, our final thought is "oh, the other guy is evil; he has the information necessary to reach the right conclusion, and he has the mental capacity required to make the leap. The fact that he doesn't agree with me proves that he has an agenda, or that he's a liar who is willfully misleading everyone else." That's the natural human progression when dealing with someone who disagrees with us- Ignorant > Idiot > Evil. The fact is that very often smart and well-intentioned people will be presented with the same data, make an earnest, good-faith effort to interpret it, and still reach different conclusions. It doesn't make one side better or worse than the other, it's just an inevitability. We all operate differently and have different approaches, beliefs, and heuristics. This is a very good thing- consensus reached through disagreement is much stronger than an untested consensus formed in an echo chamber of universal agreement. When reasonable minds differ on a topic, this is a cause for celebration, not dismay.

Totally disagree, but according to you that means its time to celebrate!

He used the terms "smart and well-intentioned" and "reasonable minds".

 

[Quibbler]

I'm most worried about Welker's presence cutting down on the number of screen passes DT gets. He did well with them last year, but I could Welker eating into those targets.

 

[Drop]

For smiles and giggles, what if instead of Demaryius it was Calvin?

 

[jurb26]

For smiles and giggles, what if instead of Demaryius it was Calvin?

People would be upgrading him and saying this will help drive away some of the double coverage.

 

[Phenix]

For smiles and giggles, what if instead of Demaryius it was Calvin?

People would be upgrading him and saying this will help drive away some of the double coverage.

It would depend on the agenda of the poster.

 

[Drop]

Well what's your agenda and what do you think? Also it would be nice to know if you are a fanatic for any particular team.

 

[JamesTheScot]

For smiles and giggles, what if instead of Demaryius it was Calvin?

People would be upgrading him and saying this will help drive away some of the double coverage.

But Decker should be doing that already for DT.Not to mention that the route is what determines double coverage more often than not anyway.

 

[pizzatyme]

First off, happy birthday Peyton! He turns 37. I'm about to turn 45 and can still throw a football over them mountains!

B- just because you had DT last year and you won doesn't mean you get to draft him again in the 3-5th rounds. It's all relative. He will likely go in the top 20 picks. So many will draft on relative value.

Next- there is some terrific discussion in here. Please check your ego at the door and soak it up. Don't piss in the pool.

4- it has been mentioned before, but I think what the defenses decide to do will impact the final numbers. Welker will likely face the 3rd DB. If the defense brackets DT with a safety over the top, then Welker will have big days. I also think Welker picks up much of the TE/RB production and therefore will minimally impact the outside WRs final numbers.

Final first blush prediction- Manning, DT, Decker duplicate 2012 +\- 5%, and Welker gobbles the lion's share of the rest to pop around 140/85/1000/8.

Time to flame me!

 

[purestrength]

Any new opinions here with the addition of M.Ball? I don't watch much Big Ten football, so I don't know what kind of receiver he is.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

The Denver Post considers 75 catches the ideal number for Wes Welker and Eric Decker.
Reporter Mike Klis believes the "new balance" in the Broncos' passing attack needs to be Welker and Decker each snagging around 75 balls while Demaryius Thomas gets 85. Peyton Manning has never been a part of an offense where at least three players caught 75 passes, but Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon and Jacob Tamme all cleared 67 in 2010 for the Colts. Decker is the most obvious candidate to fall below 75 grabs, but if he does, it won't be by much.

Related: Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker

Source: Denver Post

 

[coachbobbyfinstock]

assuming Demaryius catches a few more TDs than last year (10) I don't have a problem with a 9 catch 'dip in production.'

 

[DoubleG]

Thomas is a stud, studs get theirs. Problem is people over think it. Thomas does not line up at the same position, Thomas is still taller, so Red zone is still his thing, he is still the deep threat.

Whats not to like, some guy is telling me Nicks is just a tick behind Thomas. lol Thoams is a Top 5 WR in redraft and Dyno.

...or people don't think enough and make assumptions so they get caught off-guard, wondering why wasn't my stud a stud this year?!I'm not saying DT won't still be awesome next year, but there are a few things worth considering.

He saw a healthy 141 targets and caught 66.7% of them. That seems like a very good catch rate to me for a guy with a healthy 15.3 ypr. Should Welker eat away at those targets, maybe just 1-2 a game, and his catch rate drops to around 60% then you get something like 120 x 0.60 = 72 receptions. Seems crazy to go from 94 to 72, but is it really a stretch? Sure, they are totally different receivers, but that doesn't mean Denver doesn't design some plays for their new player or at least make him the #1 read on a few plays a game, which would in turn knock a target or two a game off of DT's totals.

And guys do see fluctuations in their rec/targ number. For instance, Andre Johnson saw 170 targets in 2008 and 171 in 2009, but his % was 67.6 one year and 59.1 % the next year. His ypr was 15.5 with the low rate and 13.7 with the high catch rate.

It's also worth noting that the "red zone is still his thing" means less than you think it does. He saw six red zone targets last year out of 88 pass attempts. Whoopee.

Conclusion:

Fantasy football (and football to some extent) is a probability game. Crazy swings in TD production happen every year and sometimes players see radical drop/gain in yards per touch without obvious cause (see Ray Rice, 2009 vs. 2010 despite same O-line). There is always a chance that Denver throws the ball 700 times or decides to force feed DT, but I'd say there is at least an 80% chance his production declines based simply on targets and catch rate. His 10 TDs are a lot of a Peyton offense, too. Harrison did it quite a bit, but Wayne was usually a single digit guy - even with 175 targets in 2010 he only got 6.

Unless something drastic happens, I'll probably use this prediction in the player spotlight:

130 targets x 62% = 81 rec x 15.3 = 1240 yds 8 TD

I realize that this post if from a while back, but there is a slight discrepancy in thought process I wanted to address. You point out that DT's targets and catch % could all drop - and just before your conclusion, point out that he saw an inordinately small number of red-zone targets. You also acknowledge that TDs fluctuate drastically. What if some of those red-zone targets that went to Decker and Tamme last season, end up going to DT in 2013 - and his red-zone numbers look more like they "should"?

In other words, if the other numbers drop, but the red-zone numbers equalize (going up, as they were disproportionally low last season) as well, than DT's TD numbers could either stay about the same despite fewer catches, or actually climb a little over last season. If you pencil him in at 80-85 and 1250 + 12-14TDs, he'd basically finish where he did last season (save for heavily weighted PPR leagues).

My point is, if your claiming a "regression to the mean" for targets/catch% (which I don't necessarily agree with), how can we not then expect red-zone targets to "progress to the mean"?

Incidentally, the reason I don't necessarily agree with a regression in DT's case is many fold:

1) While Manning is 1 year older, he is also 1 year further removed from surgery, which many thought limited his downfield accuracy early in the season.

2) DT is only entering his second season as a full time starter. We have no idea what his "mean" is. It could certainly be lower than 90/1400/10...but it could also be right there..or higher.

3) DT and Manning now have a season and more of a developing rapport. As many have noted with Harrison and Wayne, once Manning trusts his stud WR, that stud WR gets his.

Will Manning make good use of Welker and Decker? Absolutely. Will DT's numbers suffer as a result? Given the points above, probably not - and if they do, barely enough to move him in your rankings any significant margin.

 

[jacobo_moses]

25 % drop for Thomas with Welker Anyone who thinks he will get the same number of targets a s last year is kidding themselves. A year older for manning means a year older for his weakening arm. Walker fits that role well.

Problem with this statement is there are reports out of OTA's that Manning's arm seems stronger then it was this time last year. This isn't just coach chatter. WR's are saying this that are catching passes from Manning. So just saying. This remark has no backing.

 

[coachbobbyfinstock]

i agree. Sounds liek someone is trying to grab steal Manning or one of the big 3 Wrs in his draft!

 

[CentralPA]

Really hard to shake out what will happen. With another mouth to feed with Welker you can see him maybe catching more balls but this might blanket coverage closer to the LoS and the DT can use his speed to blow past his coverage at the line and catch some deep bombs. I think Manning's arm strength and deep ball will be fine. DT should be just fine.

80/1250/11

 

[FF Ninja]

Thomas is a stud, studs get theirs. Problem is people over think it. Thomas does not line up at the same position, Thomas is still taller, so Red zone is still his thing, he is still the deep threat.

Whats not to like, some guy is telling me Nicks is just a tick behind Thomas. lol Thoams is a Top 5 WR in redraft and Dyno.

...or people don't think enough and make assumptions so they get caught off-guard, wondering why wasn't my stud a stud this year?!I'm not saying DT won't still be awesome next year, but there are a few things worth considering.

He saw a healthy 141 targets and caught 66.7% of them. That seems like a very good catch rate to me for a guy with a healthy 15.3 ypr. Should Welker eat away at those targets, maybe just 1-2 a game, and his catch rate drops to around 60% then you get something like 120 x 0.60 = 72 receptions. Seems crazy to go from 94 to 72, but is it really a stretch? Sure, they are totally different receivers, but that doesn't mean Denver doesn't design some plays for their new player or at least make him the #1 read on a few plays a game, which would in turn knock a target or two a game off of DT's totals.

And guys do see fluctuations in their rec/targ number. For instance, Andre Johnson saw 170 targets in 2008 and 171 in 2009, but his % was 67.6 one year and 59.1 % the next year. His ypr was 15.5 with the low rate and 13.7 with the high catch rate.

It's also worth noting that the "red zone is still his thing" means less than you think it does. He saw six red zone targets last year out of 88 pass attempts. Whoopee.

Conclusion:

Fantasy football (and football to some extent) is a probability game. Crazy swings in TD production happen every year and sometimes players see radical drop/gain in yards per touch without obvious cause (see Ray Rice, 2009 vs. 2010 despite same O-line). There is always a chance that Denver throws the ball 700 times or decides to force feed DT, but I'd say there is at least an 80% chance his production declines based simply on targets and catch rate. His 10 TDs are a lot of a Peyton offense, too. Harrison did it quite a bit, but Wayne was usually a single digit guy - even with 175 targets in 2010 he only got 6.

Unless something drastic happens, I'll probably use this prediction in the player spotlight:

130 targets x 62% = 81 rec x 15.3 = 1240 yds 8 TD

I realize that this post if from a while back, but there is a slight discrepancy in thought process I wanted to address. You point out that DT's targets and catch % could all drop - and just before your conclusion, point out that he saw an inordinately small number of red-zone targets. You also acknowledge that TDs fluctuate drastically. What if some of those red-zone targets that went to Decker and Tamme last season, end up going to DT in 2013 - and his red-zone numbers look more like they "should"?

In other words, if the other numbers drop, but the red-zone numbers equalize (going up, as they were disproportionally low last season) as well, than DT's TD numbers could either stay about the same despite fewer catches, or actually climb a little over last season. If you pencil him in at 80-85 and 1250 + 12-14TDs, he'd basically finish where he did last season (save for heavily weighted PPR leagues).

My point is, if your claiming a "regression to the mean" for targets/catch% (which I don't necessarily agree with), how can we not then expect red-zone targets to "progress to the mean"?

Incidentally, the reason I don't necessarily agree with a regression in DT's case is many fold:

1) While Manning is 1 year older, he is also 1 year further removed from surgery, which many thought limited his downfield accuracy early in the season.

2) DT is only entering his second season as a full time starter. We have no idea what his "mean" is. It could certainly be lower than 90/1400/10...but it could also be right there..or higher.

3) DT and Manning now have a season and more of a developing rapport. As many have noted with Harrison and Wayne, once Manning trusts his stud WR, that stud WR gets his.

Will Manning make good use of Welker and Decker? Absolutely. Will DT's numbers suffer as a result? Given the points above, probably not - and if they do, barely enough to move him in your rankings any significant margin.

Good questions. I double checked those numbers after I posted that and noticed that my original source was wrong, but didn't feel like wasting any more time on discussions with Phenix. The point remains that the red zone is not "DT's thing". Decker was the slight favorite in the red zone according to this.

According to that, there were 27 red zone touchdowns. I would not feel comfortable counting on that happening again, but if it does, then it is possible that DT gets a couple more. I would advise against counting on TDs to balance out a decrease in total targets, though. That's a risky proposition.

As for your 1, 2, 3...

1) Obviously his overall accuracy to Thomas was very, very good last year. Better than he has been historically. I'm not predicting DT to regress in particular, just for either him or Manning to somehow lead to a more likely catch % than last year. I mean, c'mon, those numbers are better than Larry Fitgerald and Kurt Warner and Larry never cracked 15 ypr with Kurt.

2) You are just thinking fantasy football. DT is just a piece of a machine. His mean will never be a fantasy statline like 90/1400/10... his mean should be measured in terms of rec per target, yards per rec, TD per rec... Last year those metrics were very high, so his aggregate stats (94/1442/10) were built on a shaky foundation. Should his targets and/or catch % drop, his numbers are going to take a decent hit. If both those things happen then people like Phenix are going to be flipping the F out and will have no idea how this catastrophe has happened to them. Personally, I think it will be hard for him to achieve 141 targets and it will be very unlikely that he catches 66.7% of those targets. And further, while he was the 2nd option in the red zone on his team, his 21 targets still ranked 5th in the league, so to say that touchdowns will balance out the decrease in receptions and yardage is a very weak optimistic assumption.

3) Ah, that magic word... rapport. A staple in the diet of optimists. It means nothing when it isn't present, but it's important when it's there. He's also got rapport with Decker, his most trusted red zone option, and he's got rapport with Tamme and Dreessen. And I'd bet that he's doing his damndest to gain some rapport with Welker this offseason. History has shown that Manning's studs get theirs, but history has also shown that Manning doesn't throw for more than 35 TDs very often.

With the ground game likely seeing an improvement over last year, I don't think an extra 50 receptions are just going to magically sprout. Everybody is going to take a fantasy football hit to make an improvement in the greater good of the Denver Broncos. They will hopefully be able to control the clock and maintain leads. This will be a good, maybe great team. They will be fun to watch. But we should all be prepared for a likely drop from last year's numbers as Welker enters the picture and Manning gets older.

 

[DoubleG]

1) Obviously his overall accuracy to Thomas was very, very good last year. Better than he has been historically. I'm not predicting DT to regress in particular, just for either him or Manning to somehow lead to a more likely catch % than last year. I mean, c'mon, those numbers are better than Larry Fitgerald and Kurt Warner and Larry never cracked 15 ypr with Kurt.

Part of that could have to do with the fact that DT is probably the most physically gifted WR Manning has every played with. Harrison and Wayne are great WRs - but they don't have the catch radius that DT does at his size and speed. Regression from that standpoint is not a given. If Manning were throwing to Calvin this year, I wouldn't expect his comp.% to be the same as it was when he was throwing to Harrison, Wayne and Garcon.

2) You are just thinking fantasy football. DT is just a piece of a machine. His mean will never be a fantasy statline like 90/1400/10... his mean should be measured in terms of rec per target, yards per rec, TD per rec... Last year those metrics were very high, so his aggregate stats (94/1442/10) were built on a shaky foundation. Should his targets and/or catch % drop, his numbers are going to take a decent hit. If both those things happen then people like Phenix are going to be flipping the F out and will have no idea how this catastrophe has happened to them. Personally, I think it will be hard for him to achieve 141 targets and it will be very unlikely that he catches 66.7% of those targets. And further, while he was the 2nd option in the red zone on his team, his 21 targets still ranked 5th in the league, so to say that touchdowns will balance out the decrease in receptions and yardage is a very weak optimistic assumption.

3) Ah, that magic word... rapport. A staple in the diet of optimists. It means nothing when it isn't present, but it's important when it's there. He's also got rapport with Decker, his most trusted red zone option, and he's got rapport with Tamme and Dreessen. And I'd bet that he's doing his damndest to gain some rapport with Welker this offseason. History has shown that Manning's studs get theirs, but history has also shown that Manning doesn't throw for more than 35 TDs very often.

With the ground game likely seeing an improvement over last year, I don't think an extra 50 receptions are just going to magically sprout. Everybody is going to take a fantasy football hit to make an improvement in the greater good of the Denver Broncos. They will hopefully be able to control the clock and maintain leads. This will be a good, maybe great team. They will be fun to watch. But we should all be prepared for a likely drop from last year's numbers as Welker enters the picture and Manning gets older.

Neither does almost anyone posting in this thread - almost everyone is suggesting that those "extra" receptions will come from the TEs and WRs not named Thomas.

 

[FF Ninja]

1) Obviously his overall accuracy to Thomas was very, very good last year. Better than he has been historically. I'm not predicting DT to regress in particular, just for either him or Manning to somehow lead to a more likely catch % than last year. I mean, c'mon, those numbers are better than Larry Fitgerald and Kurt Warner and Larry never cracked 15 ypr with Kurt.

Part of that could have to do with the fact that DT is probably the most physically gifted WR Manning has every played with. Harrison and Wayne are great WRs - but they don't have the catch radius that DT does at his size and speed. Regression from that standpoint is not a given. If Manning were throwing to Calvin this year, I wouldn't expect his comp.% to be the same as it was when he was throwing to Harrison, Wayne and Garcon.

Sounds like you are going to believe what you want to believe, but just so we are clear, do you think there is a greater than 50% chance that Thomas sees at least 141 targets and catches 66.7% of them?

And for the record, I think DT is a beast. I'd love to have him on my teams, but I think there's a 90% chance he scores less fantasy points than last year, making him a poor buy in 2013 redrafts given his WR6 pricetag.

 

[DoubleG]

1) Obviously his overall accuracy to Thomas was very, very good last year. Better than he has been historically. I'm not predicting DT to regress in particular, just for either him or Manning to somehow lead to a more likely catch % than last year. I mean, c'mon, those numbers are better than Larry Fitgerald and Kurt Warner and Larry never cracked 15 ypr with Kurt.

Part of that could have to do with the fact that DT is probably the most physically gifted WR Manning has every played with. Harrison and Wayne are great WRs - but they don't have the catch radius that DT does at his size and speed. Regression from that standpoint is not a given. If Manning were throwing to Calvin this year, I wouldn't expect his comp.% to be the same as it was when he was throwing to Harrison, Wayne and Garcon.

Sounds like you are going to believe what you want to believe, but just so we are clear, do you think there is a greater than 50% chance that Thomas sees at least 141 targets and catches 66.7% of them?

And for the record, I think DT is a beast. I'd love to have him on my teams, but I think there's a 90% chance he scores less fantasy points than last year, making him a poor buy in 2013 redrafts given his WR6 pricetag.

In answer to your question, no. But he doesn't have to mirror exactly what he did last year to still be startable as a WR1.

There are two things about the premise that he has to that are slightly flawed:

1) You are using 1 season as the basis for your extrapolation for this year. 141 targets is not, for example, the 200+ Wayne saw last year. It's decent, but not outrageously high. If he ends up with 160 targets and catches 57%, he still ends up with over 90 receptions. So too, the 15.1 YPR - 15th in WRs with at least 30 catches. Not extraordinarily high. I mean, Vincent Jackson, with a much lesser QB averaged 19.2 YPR. Now, I think THAT number was an outlier, but even guys like TB Mike Williams, Lance Moore and Steve Smiff averaged more YPR than Thomas did. Again, the point being, even if he has less receptions, if his yards per goes up a little, his yards total will stay similar.

2) You are still operating under the assumption that Welker's reception numbers will come from Thomas and adversely affect his target numbers. I would suggest that they will more than likely come from Decker, Stokley (obviously) and the TE numbers, simply because Decker and the TE operate in what most people consider Welker's "area of expertise" (i.e. the middle of the field). Honestly, if you simply pencil Welker in for 50 catches - that's really close to Stokley's 45. Even if you add another 20-25, they are more likely to come at the expense of Tamme and Dreesen and partially Decker, moreso than Thomas.

The premise of this thread is whether or not Welker being in Denver, as opposed to Stokley, will adversely affect DT's numbers. Based on the above, I don't think so. I think Thomas will still be a WR1 in FF.

 

[RBM]

Expecting some frustrating Sundays as a Thomas owner. Sure, the end of year numbers will be there, but not without a few complete clunkers where he just gets left out of the party. Welker signing was bad news for us Thomas owners.

 

[Buffaloes]

25 % drop for Thomas with Welker Anyone who thinks he will get the same number of targets a s last year is kidding themselves. A year older for manning means a year older for his weakening arm. Walker fits that role well.

except reports from camp are that his arm is stronger than last year.

I think Thomas will be a top 2-7 WR assuming full health for PM & Thomas. His size/speed is unmanageable one-on-one and Welker's presence will likely mean less double coverage. Thomas is the deep threat, but they like to get him the ball in space. I think he'll be a pretty steady weekly producer that can go off with a big week any week.

 

[FF Ninja]

1) Obviously his overall accuracy to Thomas was very, very good last year. Better than he has been historically. I'm not predicting DT to regress in particular, just for either him or Manning to somehow lead to a more likely catch % than last year. I mean, c'mon, those numbers are better than Larry Fitgerald and Kurt Warner and Larry never cracked 15 ypr with Kurt.

Part of that could have to do with the fact that DT is probably the most physically gifted WR Manning has every played with. Harrison and Wayne are great WRs - but they don't have the catch radius that DT does at his size and speed. Regression from that standpoint is not a given. If Manning were throwing to Calvin this year, I wouldn't expect his comp.% to be the same as it was when he was throwing to Harrison, Wayne and Garcon.

Sounds like you are going to believe what you want to believe, but just so we are clear, do you think there is a greater than 50% chance that Thomas sees at least 141 targets and catches 66.7% of them?

And for the record, I think DT is a beast. I'd love to have him on my teams, but I think there's a 90% chance he scores less fantasy points than last year, making him a poor buy in 2013 redrafts given his WR6 pricetag.

In answer to your question, no. But he doesn't have to mirror exactly what he did last year to still be startable as a WR1.

There are two things about the premise that he has to that are slightly flawed:

1) You are using 1 season as the basis for your extrapolation for this year. 141 targets is not, for example, the 200+ Wayne saw last year. It's decent, but not outrageously high. If he ends up with 160 targets and catches 57%, he still ends up with over 90 receptions. So too, the 15.1 YPR - 15th in WRs with at least 30 catches. Not extraordinarily high. I mean, Vincent Jackson, with a much lesser QB averaged 19.2 YPR. Now, I think THAT number was an outlier, but even guys like TB Mike Williams, Lance Moore and Steve Smiff averaged more YPR than Thomas did. Again, the point being, even if he has less receptions, if his yards per goes up a little, his yards total will stay similar.

2) You are still operating under the assumption that Welker's reception numbers will come from Thomas and adversely affect his target numbers. I would suggest that they will more than likely come from Decker, Stokley (obviously) and the TE numbers, simply because Decker and the TE operate in what most people consider Welker's "area of expertise" (i.e. the middle of the field). Honestly, if you simply pencil Welker in for 50 catches - that's really close to Stokley's 45. Even if you add another 20-25, they are more likely to come at the expense of Tamme and Dreesen and partially Decker, moreso than Thomas.

The premise of this thread is whether or not Welker being in Denver, as opposed to Stokley, will adversely affect DT's numbers. Based on the above, I don't think so. I think Thomas will still be a WR1 in FF.

So you don't think he's going to see greater than or equal to 141 targets and catch 66.7% of them. Then you either think he's going to catch a lot of touchdowns or you are knowingly overdrafting him.

1) Wayne had 195 targets last year, not 200+. And no point in bringing up outliers. DT ranked 12th in WR targets last year. Expecting an INCREASE in that with Welker joining the ranks is silly. It's not impossible, but the probability of this occurring is very low. Even if you don't think he loses any targets at all to Welker, where is the increase coming from? He's already the 12th highest. That is pretty high.

15.1 YPR is a high number, too. I would not want to count on my WR1 to increase from 15.1 YPR in order to simply maintain his value from the year before. It seems like you are grasping for anything here. You are throwing out a lot things that could happen (more TDs, increase in YPR, increase in targets) as if there is strength in numbers here, but the truth is that coming up with 3 or 4 things that each have maybe a 5% chance of occurring doesn't strengthen your stance.

2) I agree with you that Decker and the TEs are likely to see a larger decrease in their target numbers than Thomas, but I still think Thomas will lose a few looks to Welker. Sure, Welker runs different routes than Thomas typically, but Welker is going to be the #1 read sometimes, so if he's open, then Thomas won't be getting the ball thrown to him on whatever route he was running.

Bottom line, DT finished WR5 last year. He's being drafted as WR6 this year. I think his targets take a small hit due to Welker's presence and his catch % takes a normal regression, thus drawing him down past last year's numbers and this year's ADP. Great talent, fun to watch, but overvalued for 2013.

 

[Drop]

"I'd be lying if I told you we have not studied what worked well for Wes in New England," Manning told the team's official website. "There's certain pass patterns and certain things that he's done so well for so long, you'd be crazy not to copy some of those and bring those to your offense."

Source: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000215303/article/wes-welker-peyton-manning-everything-you-thought

 

[ghostguy123]

If he didnt finish top 10 it would surprise me. Another year with Manning to gain chemistry, Manning seemingly healthier..................I can also see the offense in general just more efficient.

If there is a drop, I can't see it being much

 

[CentralPA]

Expecting some frustrating Sundays as a Thomas owner. Sure, the end of year numbers will be there, but not without a few complete clunkers where he just gets left out of the party. Welker signing was bad news for us Thomas owners.

You'll be pleasantly surprised. DT will be just fine.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Expecting some frustrating Sundays as a Thomas owner. Sure, the end of year numbers will be there, but not without a few complete clunkers where he just gets left out of the party. Welker signing was bad news for us Thomas owners.

You'll be pleasantly surprised. DT will be just fine.

I can't believe some think otherwise. People act like the presence of Wes Welker will somehow make it difficult for other receivers to flourish, as if Randy Moss didn't light it up in 2007 and even do pretty well in 2008 with Cassel. And those two TEs did "pretty well" (see: great) in New England the last few years despite Welker catching 100+ balls every year, so I think Thomas and Decker will both be just fine. If anything, the TEs in Denver will take a hit (although I could still seeing them being decent goal line options).

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

One of the safest WRs in football. Insane talent. Arguably the best QB in the game right now. Clear #1 guy. A reduction in catches IMO will be offset by increase in TDs.

I think Wes Welker is the one being overvalued.

 

[ponchsox]

Any chance DT out scores Megatron this year?

 

[rickyg]

Any chance DT out scores Megatron this year?

When you have the skills that thomas has an you play in a Peyton manning led offense anything is possible.

Calvin is still in a league of his own but I like thomas' chances to come very close to matching his production.

With all the weapons manning has at his dosposal now, exactly what o thoughy would happen happened.

te beginning of the game saw DT as a focal point of the ravens defense. Manning made them pay by using julius thomas, welker, and decker (and even Caldwell). Once the ravens defense tool note of this and eased up on their coverage on DT to address the other threats, manning started looking for DT.

At some point in every game, thomas will start seeing easier coverage and take advantage. And he has the skills to make every reception count.

 

[WilsonTheVolleyball]

He had five catches, which seems a tad low? How many targets did he have tonight?

 

[cstu]

Any chance DT out scores Megatron this year?

When you have the skills that thomas has an you play in a Peyton manning led offense anything is possible.

Calvin is still in a league of his own but I like thomas' chances to come very close to matching his production.

With all the weapons manning has at his dosposal now, exactly what o thoughy would happen happened.

te beginning of the game saw DT as a focal point of the ravens defense. Manning made them pay by using julius thomas, welker, and decker (and even Caldwell). Once the ravens defense tool note of this and eased up on their coverage on DT to address the other threats, manning started looking for DT.

At some point in every game, thomas will start seeing easier coverage and take advantage. And he has the skills to make every reception count.

#1 is very possible, but he also 'only' had 3/71/1 before the garbage time catches. Hard to say what his final numbers will be but if you're a DT owner you have to be very happy right now.

 

[fbelange]

Man am I glad I grabbed Demaryius for $22 in my auction. The guy went off last night. Im actually happy Welker Decker, and now J Thomas are there....just like last night, you can't cover them all.
He had 5 rec. for 162 yards and 2TD's. My league is standard scoring so thank god. The receptions are low, but that doesnt have me worried just yet.

 

[WilsonTheVolleyball]

Welker and Thomas had 11 targets each. Decker had 7.