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Denver RB Rankings (1 Viewer)

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Code:
31   Tatum Bell, Den 31 * 30 * 31 26 * 34 31 34 31 30 29 19 * * 32 31.70 34  Quentin Griffin, Den 34 31 * 22 * 31 * 33 * * * * * * 29 31 * 33.95 35  Garrison Hearst, Den * * 29 * * * 31 * * * 33 31 * * * * 33 34.40
The code above shows the rankings given to the various Denver RBs by the experts and the message board consensus.OK, save one 19th ranking, one 22nd ranking, and one 26th ranking, all the experts are projecting Denver's RB to finsih 29th or lower. I'll wager anyone of you that a Denver RB will end up 28th or better. Yes I know, I'm not stepping up and saying which one, however, I'm not the one that's being relied on for an expert opinion. Personally I think these rankings are based more upon where people would draft someone, not where they will finish in points at the end of the year. I can get that information from mocks drafts, what I would like to know is which Denver RB in your opinion will carry the majority of the load and where they'll finish relative to the other RBs.
 

IvanKaramazov

Footballguy
Personally I think these rankings are based more upon where people would draft someone,
Yeah, but what's wrong with that?Obviously all of the Denver RBs come with a heavy element of uncertainty attached. So why is it unreasonable to include that uncertainty in their rankings.Say I think that Q will be the man in Denver this year, tearing it up for 1600 yards and 15+ TDs. Does it follow that I should rank Q as a top 5 RB? No way. Surely the presence of Bell and Hearst should induce me to discount those projections. Players with a high degree of uncertainty around their projections get ranked lower than those you can project more confidently.
I can get that information from mocks drafts, what I would like to know is which Denver RB in your opinion will carry the majority of the load and where they'll finish relative to the other RBs.
All speculation at this point. The FBG staff may be wise, but they're not fortune tellers. I'm more interested in seeing how an "expert" discounts uncertainty than ill-informed quesswork on how Shanahan will handle his RBs.
 
As frustrating as it is right now, that is where the expert opinion lies. I mean, if you asked the head coach of the Denver Broncos right now who's going to get the ball the majority of the times, he doesn't even know for sure at this point. So how is anyone else going to know before that. Add on top of it that they just lost Clinton Portis and brought in a veteran in Hearst, a rookie in Bell, and the experienced player of the 3 in Denver is 2nd year player Quentin Griffin. To be asking to have that all mapped out by Memorial Day is a little too much. If they can give me that by Labor Day I'd probably be happy.My take is this: I think Quentin Griffin is the guy early. He knows the system, he's faster than Garrison Hearst and he's used to the Denver altitude. By no means is he going to be the every down back, as you'll still see Hearst and occasionally Bell. During the course of the season, as Bell gets more used to the situation, he'll start to get the ball more.

 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Personally I think these rankings are based more upon where people would draft someone,
Yeah, but what's wrong with that?Obviously all of the Denver RBs come with a heavy element of uncertainty attached. So why is it unreasonable to include that uncertainty in their rankings.Say I think that Q will be the man in Denver this year, tearing it up for 1600 yards and 15+ TDs. Does it follow that I should rank Q as a top 5 RB? No way. Surely the presence of Bell and Hearst should induce me to discount those projections. Players with a high degree of uncertainty around their projections get ranked lower than those you can project more confidently.
I can get that information from mocks drafts, what I would like to know is which Denver RB in your opinion will carry the majority of the load and where they'll finish relative to the other RBs.
All speculation at this point. The FBG staff may be wise, but they're not fortune tellers. I'm more interested in seeing how an "expert" discounts uncertainty than ill-informed quesswork on how Shanahan will handle his RBs.
Ivan, it is discounted when you average the opinions as a whole. The point of experts rankings aren't to try to discount everything to a mean on the front end. The bottom line is that I want opinions from the best in the business. I'd much rather see Bell, Hearst, and Griffin up at #15 on several lists and generate some discussion as to why. The average postion will still net around #30.
 
Personally I think these rankings are based more upon where people would draft someone,
Yeah, but what's wrong with that?Obviously all of the Denver RBs come with a heavy element of uncertainty attached. So why is it unreasonable to include that uncertainty in their rankings.Say I think that Q will be the man in Denver this year, tearing it up for 1600 yards and 15+ TDs. Does it follow that I should rank Q as a top 5 RB? No way. Surely the presence of Bell and Hearst should induce me to discount those projections. Players with a high degree of uncertainty around their projections get ranked lower than those you can project more confidently.
I can get that information from mocks drafts, what I would like to know is which Denver RB in your opinion will carry the majority of the load and where they'll finish relative to the other RBs.
All speculation at this point. The FBG staff may be wise, but they're not fortune tellers. I'm more interested in seeing how an "expert" discounts uncertainty than ill-informed quesswork on how Shanahan will handle his RBs.
Ivan, it is discounted when you average the opinions as a whole. The point of experts rankings aren't to try to discount everything to a mean on the front end. The bottom line is that I want opinions from the best in the business. I'd much rather see Bell, Hearst, and Griffin up at #15 on several lists and generate some discussion as to why. The average postion will still net around #30.
I know what you're saying Bass N Brew, but at this point it's just so close that who do you put at 15. I know you're saying, well that's what the experts are supposed to tell us, but the info just isn't there.I wish we had the cure for Aids, but we don't. It doesn't mean the doctors working trying to find that answer are not experts, just the info isn't there.Like I said, Shanny doesn't even know what's he is going to do yet. I think Bell struggles early on, how about you?
 
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ExtraPoint

Footballguy
You are right about the way most people rank. I dont think you are quite right about the Denver backs. I think most people are either expect an RBBC or are at least very speculative about who will be the man this year. In either of those cases you must rank the player lower than what you consider the team output to be. I agree that the 'experts' here arent showing much nad though.

 
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Marc Levin

Hangs out with Oscar Zeta Acosta
It is simply too early to make an "expert" call on any one Denver RB, and "whichever back wins the starting job in Denver" was not a rankable option.I'm not even sure who will run with the first team on the first day of training camp.We would be remiss as experts if we made a bold call at this point with no information to base a decision on. You can get what we each feel by which Denver RB (or two) we each have ranked.My initiial feeling on the situation is that Shannie woud like Bell to walk into camp and wow everyone the way Portis did. That if Bell is sensational, he will "start" Hearst and allow Bell to win the job from him in the first few games of the year with his play on the field while Griffin will again be a backup.If Bell is underwhelming, either Griffin or Hearst will be the opening day starter and Shannie will play the hot back for the first few games until he gets an idsea of who runs best .In essence, I really believe that whoever is Shannie's opening day starting RB won't be the main back come mid-season, and that all three right now have equivelant chances to be either the opening day starter and/or the main back in Denver. Until I have even one report from training camp, I can't really rank the Denver backs, though.

 

cracKer

Shawn Culcasi
I agree that the 'experts' here arent showing much nad though.
This thread is much more gentle than what we'd see had any one of the staffers ranked Tatum Bell in the top 10 (or showed nads, as you say).Ranking the Denver RBs right now is a no-win situationBTW, don't forget about Reuben Droughns. He looks like the darkhorse stud of the bunch.
 
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I agree that the 'experts' here arent showing much nad though.
This thread is much more gentle than what we'd see had any one of the staffers ranked Tatum Bell in the top 10 (or showed nads, as you say).Ranking the Denver RBs right now is a no-win situation
Exactly, unless you really felt that way. But you can't just say Bell is going to be No.13, and then in 3 weeks find out he's having a horrible camp and then say Griffin 18. Meanwhile, there are drafts going on and people who look at what the staffers are thinking will start to wonder if they know what the heck they're doing.I too like to see people get off the fence, but in this particular case, I think it's justified. However, as we get closer to more redrafts, it would be nice to see some seperation, and I'm sure there will be.Opening day1. Griffith1a. Hearst3. Bell
 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
I think Mike Anderson has as much of a shot at a heavy workload as any of these other 3 RBs. At least he has performed well for them before and over an entire season. In 2001 it was the 1st year that Alex Gibbs had stepped down and the running game as a whole struggled that season rotating Mike Anderson Terrell Davis and Olandis Gary. Then Portis took over the job from Mike Anderson latter in the following year. Now Portis is gone so why wouldn't Mike get another shot at the job?I think Skeletor prefers a faster rb and that is why he took Bell this year as well as taking Griffin last year. Still I am sure Mike Anderson is working hard and has just as much of an oppotunity to become the hot hand as the rest of these 3 rbs.If one does get hot then they will continue to feed him. But if he gets stuffed or misses other responsibilites like a blocking assignment or fumbles the ball then there are at least 3 other rbs just waiting for thier chance. And we might see a quick hook.I don't think there is any way to realisticly predict that any one of these rbs is going to be able to maintain getting the majority of the carries for an extended period of the season and even less likely to early on in the year. The rotation could continue all year long with one or more of these rbs getting some huge games one week then a lot less the next. And that is without taking the injury headaches that might present themselves.So actualy it makes sence to me having these rbs ranked lower than one could end up being. Wait awhile in your draft and then take your stab at the one ou like best. If you choose right it could be the kind of value pick that might win you a championship this year.But to rank one of these rbs much higher than the rest at this point takes more balls than brains I think and will not pay off as well for you as being able to pick the right one latter.If there even turns out to be a right one this year.

 

Maurile Tremblay

Administrator
Staff member
As I mentioned in another thread, projections are an attempt at finding the expected mean of a probability distribution for a player's results.

Griffin, Bell, Anderson, and Hearst each have a certain probability of gaining 1800 yards and 18 TDs if they end up becoming the featured RB for most of the season, but they also each have a certain probability of gaining 85 yards and 0 TDs if they end up being the odd man out.

Our job is to come up with the probabilities of each of those scenarios and all scenarios in between, and then give you something like the mean projection weighted by probability.

In order for me to rank Bell as a top 20 RB, I'd have to think he's got something like a 90% chance of becoming the featured RB. But I don't think the probability is that high, so he's not on my top 20 list. I don't think the probability is that high for any Denver RB as of right now, so none of them are on my top 20 list.

Asking me to take a stab at picking which Denver RB (if any) will become the featured RB and then ranking him in my top 20 is like asking me to take a stab at guessing which starting QB (Culpepper?) will be injured before week 5 and then ranking him outside my top 30.

It happens every year. Some QB gets injured and is lost for the season. But for any particular QB, the probability that he'll be injured isn't high enough to drop him 20 spots in my rankings.

And for any particular Denver RB, the probability that he'll become the featured Devner RB early in the season isn't high enough to put him on my top 20 list.

 
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BassNBrew

IBL Representative
I hear what you're saying, but it still doesn't make sense. Wimer has Faulk at 26. George is ranked in the top 32 by 7 different people in version one, now he's only ranked 4 times. Harris has Rudi at 11. Two people ranked Warner even though he won't be on a roster within a week and hasn't done anything for more then a year. Obviously these experts are making decisions based upon fuzzy facts already. I just find it intersting that the Denver situation scares so many people off, likewise the Oakland QB situation.This early in the season, I don't care if the rankings change as news comes out. I'm looking for current opinions. What I'm getting now isn't any better then an ADP ranking in a lot of cases.

 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Denver 2004 = RBBC

that's really the only explanation necessary
Then I guess you want some of the action..."I'll wager anyone of you that a Denver RB will end up 28th or better."
 

Northern Voice

Footballguy
Personally I think these rankings are based more upon where people would draft someone, not where they will finish in points at the end of the year.
So, what you're saying is because a Denver RB has been known to run for 1400 yards and score 15 TD's, one of these guys should be in the top 5 on every list, despite the fact that none of the "experts" or anyone else in their right mind would actually draft them there? And this helps the less experienced FFer (which I would assume is the target audience for these rankings) in what way?
 

FootballExperts

Footballguy
Saying Denver is going to be RBBC is cheap and easy. Is it me or is RBBC the least likely option? Everyone was saying the same thing last year when Portis arrived.Bell was drafted to become the featured back this year. <--- PERIODIf Denver didn't want to draft a featured back this year they would of likely drafted a RB later in the draft.Now we can debate on if he will be able to do it or not. But thats why he was drafted.Based on the Denver RB track record Bell will be a top 20 RB. Top 15 if he starts game 1. No one expects Bell to start game 1, but the majority expect him to start sometime this season.

 

Maurile Tremblay

Administrator
Staff member
George is ranked in the top 32 by 7 different people in version one, now he's only ranked 4 times.
The probability that George is going to start this year has decreased recently, so his ranking as decreased along with it.
Harris has Rudi at 11.
Rudi has an excellent chance of starting and doing well. I said above that I'd need to be about 90% sure that Bell would be the featured guy in Denver before ranking him in my top 20. Well, I am about 90% sure that Rudi will be the featured back in Cincy.
Two people ranked Warner even though he won't be on a roster within a week and hasn't done anything for more then a year.
The probability that Warner will end up starting this year is fairly high. It looks like the Giants are interested in him, and I'd be pretty surprised if he can't beat out Manning.
Obviously these experts are making decisions based upon fuzzy facts already.
Precisely. We're making decisions based on all the info currently available, filtered through our own personal opinions.
This early in the season, I don't care if the rankings change as news comes out.  I'm looking for current opinions.  What I'm getting now isn't any better then an ADP ranking in a lot of cases.
Our rankings and AntSports's ADPs are both based on current opinions.I think Q.Griffin is the most likely Denver RB to end up in the top 20. But for me to actually rank him in my top 20, it's not enough that he be more likely than Hearst to end up there; he has to be more likely than Thomas Jones (my current #20) to end up there.

Right now, I think T.Bell is a much bigger threat to Griffin than A.Thomas is to Jones.

 
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BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Personally I think these rankings are based more upon where people would draft someone, not where they will finish in points at the end of the year.
So, what you're saying is because a Denver RB has been known to run for 1400 yards and score 15 TD's, one of these guys should be in the top 5 on every list, despite the fact that none of the "experts" or anyone else in their right mind would actually draft them there? And this helps the less experienced FFer (which I would assume is the target audience for these rankings) in what way?
Well I guess that depends. If the rankings are suppose to mirror where to draft someone, I guess not. If they are supposed to be an opinion of where the players will finish in points at the end of the year, it would be very helpful. If a couple of experts had Bell in the top 20 and another couple had Griffin there, then the average for the site will still end up around 30 for both players. This would still capture the fact that much remains in doubt and that opinions vary widely. What I seeing now is basically...we have no opinion or it's too difficult for us to figure out so we're not going to try.Here's my opinion: Hearst is getting up in age and Shanahan doesn't envision him as the feature back for the entire year. Hearst should not be ranked until both Griffin and Bell prove they're not capable of handling the job. I believe I read that Anderson was being moved to FB, so he's out of the mix. I read enough opinions that I respect that see Griffin as a change of pace back. IMO that leaves Bell as the man based upon what I know now. I would expect him to get a bigger role towards the end of the year. Carries will likely be shared, like they were in Portis's rookie year, on the front end. As of now, I'd put Bell in the 15-20 range as far as expectations and look to draft him around #30 to #35 to get excellent value and mitigate the risk that I'm misreading the situation.
 

1612

Footballguy
Precisely. We're making decisions based on all the info currently available, filtered through our own personal opinions.
And not ONE of the "experts" has a strong enough opinion on the Denver RB position to stray away from what their current ADP is?It seems that everyone on staff is so afraid to post their actual rankings and instead just going with current ADP to play it safe and avoid conflict.There is no way that 20 high skilled and confident FF gurus can have such similar rankings. If I want ADP i'll go to Antsports, I come to FBG's to get a little extra insight, so please give it to me and quit bailing out using ADP.I would bet my life that at this very moment Shanahan has a pretty good idea of who he is gonna give the bulk of the carries to. So I leave it up to the FBG's to give me some insight on who it is Shanahan is planning on going with.Filter through the info, read between the lines, and give me a strong confident opinion instead of a wishy washy one. That is all I ask.Bob
 

Maurile Tremblay

Administrator
Staff member
Precisely. We're making decisions based on all the info currently available, filtered through our own personal opinions.
And not ONE of the "experts" has a strong enough opinion on the Denver RB position to stray away from what their current ADP is?It seems that everyone on staff is so afraid to post their actual rankings and instead just going with current ADP to play it safe and avoid conflict.
I haven't looked at any ADP info this year. I've given you my actual rankings.
 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Precisely. We're making decisions based on all the info currently available, filtered through our own personal opinions.
And not ONE of the "experts" has a strong enough opinion on the Denver RB position to stray away from what their current ADP is?It seems that everyone on staff is so afraid to post their actual rankings and instead just going with current ADP to play it safe and avoid conflict.
I haven't looked at any ADP info this year. I've given you my actual rankings.
MT...I'm not taking issue with any individual ranking or vision of the situation, just the fact that the opinion is so uniform across the board.
 

Maurile Tremblay

Administrator
Staff member
Here's my best guess as of right now for the Denver RB situation:28% chance that Griffin is the featured guy27% chance that Bell is the featured guy24% chance there is no featured guy (RBBC)11% chance that Anderson is the featured guy10% chance that Hearst is the featured guyThere's no way I'm ranking anyone with a <30% chance (IMO) of being the featured guy in my top 20.

 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Here's my best guess as of right now for the Denver RB situation:28% chance that Griffin is the featured guy27% chance that Bell is the featured guy24% chance there is no featured guy (RBBC)11% chance that Anderson is the featured guy10% chance that Hearst is the featured guyThere's no way I'm ranking anyone with a <30% chance (IMO) of being the featured guy in my top 20.
76% chance there is a featured back.24% chance there isn't a featured back.MT ranks Griffin at 33 and Bell at 34 - 76% chance that he's incorrect based upon his own numbers.Again, not picking on you individually MT. The 76% chance there's a feature back in your opinion is actually very helpful. I wonder if this opinion is in the majority or if most experts see a true RBBC situation. That's where I was going with this.
 

1612

Footballguy
Here's my best guess as of right now for the Denver RB situation:28% chance that Griffin is the featured guy27% chance that Bell is the featured guy24% chance there is no featured guy (RBBC)11% chance that Anderson is the featured guy10% chance that Hearst is the featured guyThere's no way I'm ranking anyone with a <30% chance (IMO) of being the featured guy in my top 20.
So you think Q Griffin is leading the way with the inside track. :yucky: Also, I understand that you and many feel it is a totally screwed up situation, but there has to be at least ONE FBG staffer who feels confident about one of those guys getting the bulk of work, and they should have that reflected in their rankings and not be afraid to do so.I think it's a bad sign that not ONE out of 20+ staffers has a confident opinion on the situation.Being able to decifer a situation like this before everything is spelled out is what seperates the men from the boys in FF.
 

1612

Footballguy
76% chance there is a featured back.24% chance there isn't a featured back.
Great point and that's exactly what i'm saying.If every FBG staffer thinks it's gonna be RBBC then I understand the rankings.But for the FBG's who feel that Denver is gonna have a feature RB, I'd expect a few of them to feel fairly confident about who it will be and adjust their rankings accordingly.
 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
Here's my best guess as of right now for the Denver RB situation:28% chance that Griffin is the featured guy27% chance that Bell is the featured guy24% chance there is no featured guy (RBBC)11% chance that Anderson is the featured guy10% chance that Hearst is the featured guyThere's no way I'm ranking anyone with a <30% chance (IMO) of being the featured guy in my top 20.
So you think Hearst was brought in to mentor the rookies?For the record, I think Hearst has the best chance to start.Reasons why:1) Griffith had his chance and looked mediocre which is why Shanny brought in Bell and Hearst2) Hearst still looked like he was 25 last year when healthy, and it's not inconceivable that he can be injury free for the most part this year as well3) Even though Portis was nothing short of spectacular in the preseason of his rookie year, Shanny still didn't start him until game 5/6(somewhere around there)...thus it would be safe to assume that the best case scenario is game 5/6 for Bell and I'm pretty sure it's a safe bet that Bell is no Portis.4) Hearst didn't go to Denver to sit...he hates sitting and he held off Barlow for years in part due to his competitive spirit.5) Everybody will rally around Hearst...he was the most popular guy in SF and will most likely have the same sort of team backing in Denver...just a very likable guy. My percentages if there is going to be a featured guy:50% Hearst30% Griffin15% Bell5% AndersonBell = overvaluedHearst = undervalued
 
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packersfan

Footballguy
Saying Denver is going to be RBBC is cheap and easy. Is it me or is RBBC the least likely option?
It actually looks extremely plausible. Here's why: Hearst is getting up there in age. That is certain. However, he is still a good RB (not a great one, but a good one) and is a good fit for this offense - especially in passing situations. He's terrific at blitz pickups (one key reason why he was able to hold off Barlow for so long) and is an accomplished receiver. Both of those skills alone could get him on the field plenty this season. Griffin looks like a turf RB. He blew apart the Colts in the dome last season, but then on turf against the Packers the next week he looked like garbage. Toss in his dimunitive size and he looks like a good change-of-pace RB, but not a starter. Anderson isn't likely to play halfback, but from a fantasy perspective he could provide value and impact the value of the other RBs because he looks like a classic TD vulture. He vultured TDs away from Portis last season and none of these RBs appear to have Portis' talent, which could lead Anderson to stealing 5-7 more TDs this season. Bell is obviously the wild card. He almost certainly was drafted to be "the guy," but he brings with him some questions: Can he run between the tackles and can he hold onto the ball being two of the bigger ones. If he can answer those questions and pick up the system quickly (especially blitz pickups, which is often the most difficult thing for rookie RBs to grasp), he's the one guy who looks like he could be a full-time RB for the Broncos this season. But if he struggles in any way or if any of the other RBs show enough to cloud the situation, then we're going to be staring smack dab at a RBBC situation. Assuming Bell doesn't blow up in camp, my guess is Hearst's experience will enable him to be the Broncos' Week 1 "starter," and Bell gets a shot at the job no later than Week 5. But it wouldn't surprise me one bit if all of these RBs continued to have roles in the running game all season long and the Broncos played the RBBC game full tilt throughout the season.
 

Aaron Rudnicki

Keep Walking™
Staff member
I seriously doubt if any of the experts looked at ADP information when compiling their rankings. These are OUR rankings. I see no reason to artificially increase a player's ranking just to be different or just b/c there is a possibility that a Broncos RB could do well. The situation is far from being resolved at this point.For the person who says the Broncos drafted Bell to be their feature back, I seem to recall people also saying the same thing about Hearst when they signed him. Fact is, nobody knows at this point. The Broncos will likely have an open competition in training camp. I think Bell probably has the most value of the 3, but I don't think he'll be ready to carry the load early on in the season as it will take him time to adjust to the Broncos system. So, Griffin probably will get a long look early in the year, with Hearst complementing him as a better blocker and receiver (I think). Eventually, I expect them to work Bell into the mix. However, it is entirely possible that at the end of the season none of the 3 will finish ranked any higher than 28.Many FF players like to minimize risk (experts included), and there is still a ton of risk associated with all of these players. Sure, someone could have gone out on a limb and ranked someone high with the expectation that they will emerge, but at this point in time, that position would be every bit as questionable as not doing so and ranking them all relatively equally.

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
  Assuming Bell doesn't blow up in camp, my guess is Hearst's experience will enable him to be the Broncos' Week 1 "starter,"
Ding Ding Ding...and the only way Hearst will be yanked is if he goes down to injury(IMO.) I'll take the week 1 starter over the other guys thank you. People seem to think Hearst is as slow as Emmit...having lived in SF and watching pretty much every play, I can tell you he is definitley better than Griffin...and I mean no-contest-better.
 
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Maurile Tremblay

Administrator
Staff member
Here's my best guess as of right now for the Denver RB situation:28% chance that Griffin is the featured guy27% chance that Bell is the featured guy24% chance there is no featured guy (RBBC)11% chance that Anderson is the featured guy10% chance that Hearst is the featured guyThere's no way I'm ranking anyone with a <30% chance (IMO) of being the featured guy in my top 20.
76% chance there is a featured back.24% chance there isn't a featured back.MT ranks Griffin at 33 and Bell at 34 - 76% chance that he's incorrect based upon his own numbers.
I'm much more likely to be incorrect than that.My projection for Q.Griffin is calculated (roughly) this way: (chance that he'll be featured guy) * (points he'll get if featured guy) + (chance of RBBC) * (points he'll get in RBBC) + (chance someone else will be featured guy) + (points he'll get if someone else is featured guy).Doing it that way, he and Bell end up pretty close together since they're in similar positions right now in a lot of ways.
Again, not picking on you individually MT. The 76% chance there's a feature back in your opinion is actually very helpful.
With guys as talented as Q.Griff and T.Bell are, I think there's a pretty good chance that one of them will get hot. It's also possible that one of them will get injured. If either of those things happen, I think Shanny will go primarily with one guy.As for who it will be, I wouldn't take 1:1 or even 2:1 odds on either one of them. The combined chances of RBBC/Anderson/Hearst are just enough to make me shy away from that bet.
 

Aaron Rudnicki

Keep Walking™
Staff member
People seem to think Hearst is as slow as Emmit...having lived in SF and watching pretty much every play, I can tell you he is definitley better than Griffith...and I mean no-contest-better.
why do you (and others) continue to call him Griffith?just a hint: you should probably learn the name of people you are ripping/discrediting if you want people to take you seriously. ;)
 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
People seem to think Hearst is as slow as Emmit...having lived in SF and watching pretty much every play, I can tell you he is definitley better than Griffith...and I mean no-contest-better.
why do you (and others) continue to call him Griffith?just a hint: you should probably learn the name of people you are ripping/discrediting if you want people to take you seriously. ;)
Thanks for the hint...I'm not sure why I do that. And if you want people take you seriously you should add value to the thread and not harp on spelling :D
 
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Maurile Tremblay

Administrator
Staff member
I think it's a bad sign that not ONE out of 20+ staffers has a confident opinion on the situation.
I think if anyone has a confident opinion on this situation, it's a sign that he doesn't know what he's talking about. I bet not even Shanahan has a strong opinion right now. Camp hasn't even begun yet, and that's where the job will be won or lost.
 

packersfan

Footballguy
Assuming Bell doesn't blow up in camp, my guess is Hearst's experience will enable him to be the Broncos' Week 1 "starter,"
Ding Ding Ding...and the only way Hearst will be yanked is if he goes down to injury. I'll take the week 1 starter over the other guys thank you.
The other key point about Hearst that always seems to get lost -- and is almost always lost when the Barlow discussions come up -- is that he can still play. When evaluating the Hearst-Barlow situation in SF, I think many people mistakenly tried to place all the blame on Barlow not doing enough without realizing Hearst was still playing well. Again, he's not a great RB, but he's still a good one. In addition, his experience could be huge for the Broncos this season. And don't overlook the contributions he can make in the passing game. In this offense, that could be a HUGE advantage in his favor - especially when you factor in the major questions that currently surround Denver's passing game. Personally, I'm not comfortable drafting any of the Denver RBs at this point, but I do think Hearst is going to be very undervalued and that makes him arguably Denver's most appealing RB (especially since Bell has all the makings of being very overvalued). If you carry a flex spot in your league, he's exactly the type of guy who could be a nice value pick this season as a RB3 or (even better) a RB4.
 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
   Assuming Bell doesn't blow up in camp, my guess is Hearst's experience will enable him to be the Broncos' Week 1 "starter,"
Ding Ding Ding...and the only way Hearst will be yanked is if he goes down to injury. I'll take the week 1 starter over the other guys thank you.
The other key point about Hearst that always seems to get lost -- and is almost always lost when the Barlow discussions come up -- is that he can still play. When evaluating the Hearst-Barlow situation in SF, I think many people mistakenly tried to place all the blame on Barlow not doing enough without realizing Hearst was still playing well. Again, he's not a great RB, but he's still a good one. In addition, his experience could be huge for the Broncos this season. And don't overlook the contributions he can make in the passing game. In this offense, that could be a HUGE advantage in his favor - especially when you factor in the major questions that currently surround Denver's passing game. Personally, I'm not comfortable drafting any of the Denver RBs at this point, but I do think Hearst is going to be very undervalued and that makes him arguably Denver's most appealing RB (especially since Bell has all the makings of being very overvalued). If you carry a flex spot in your league, he's exactly the type of guy who could be a nice value pick this season as a RB3 or (even better) a RB4.
Exactly...I get the feeling that a lot of people either didn't see how good Hearst looked last year or they are forgetting. Either way they are clearly undervaluing Hearst.The two-time comeback player of the year...not the guy you want to be writing off.
 
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BassNBrew

IBL Representative
Just some info about Bell to add to the conversation.OVERVIEWEmerging talent with a fine combination of size, strength and speed … One of the fastest players in the country, Bell boasts a 4.34 clocking in the 40-yard dash … Developed into a fantastic weapon for the Cowboys, joining receiver Rashaun Woods to guide the team to back-to-back postseason appearances … The three-year starter competed in 41 games for OSU, carrying 634 times for 3,409 yards (5.4 avg.) and 34 touchdowns, adding 258 yards and a pair of scores on 36 receptions (7.2 avg.) … His 3,409 yards ranks sixth in school annals behind Ernest Anderson (3,529, 1979-83), Barry Sanders (3,556, 1986-88), David Thompson (4,314, 1993-96), Terry Miller (4,581, 1974-77) and Thurman Thomas (4,595, 1984-87) … Scored 216 points during his career, ranking seventh on the school's career-record list … His 3,409 yards ranks sixth on the Big 12 Conference's all-time record list behind Ricky Williams of Texas (5,289, 1996-98), Quentin Griffin of Oklahoma (3,938, 1999-2002), Darren Davis of Iowa State (3,763, 1996-99), Ricky Williams of Texas Tech (3,661, 1997-2001) and Eric Crouch of Nebraska (3,434, 1998-2001) … His 34 touchdowns rushing are topped only by Williams (Texas, 64), Crouch (59), Griffin (44) and Chris Brown of Colorado (35, 2001-02) … His 634 carries ranks sixth and his 5.4-yard rushing average ranks eighth in conference annals … Joined Terry Miller (1,026 in 1975, 1541 in 1976 and 1680 in 1977), Thurman Thomas (1,553 in 1985 and 1613 in 1987) and David Thompson (1,509 in 1995, 1524 in 1996) as the only players in school history to rush for over 1,000 yards in a season twice in a career. ANALYSISPositives: Has a well-defined, muscular body with room to add additional bulk … Uses his quick initial step to burst through the holes … Shows good instincts and vision to see the rush lanes and tacklers … Has the strength to break tackles running inside and the speed to get to the corner, displaying above-average balance to turn it up field … Has made steady improvement in utilizing his second gear to break free in the open field … Adequate route runner who gets the job done on curls, flats and dump-offs … Has the blocking form and change-of-direction agility to pick up stunts and will not hesitate to take on a pass rusher … His ability to make the initial tackler miss brings back memories of another OSU great, Thurman Thomas (not as good a receiver, though) … Has a very fast running stride and looks natural bouncing off tackles when redirecting in-line. Negatives: Needs to run at a lower-pad level (when he gets high in his stance, he gets exposed, taking away his tackle-breaking power. If he keeps his pad level low, he can finish his runs) … Despite his speed, he's a one-cut runner who lacks juking skills to elude … Runs with the ball too low, resulting in several costly fumbles … Does not look natural catching the ball, letting it absorb into his body rather than extending for it … Has adequate lateral agility, but seems to be a bit stiff in his hips … Needs to do a better job of dipping his shoulder and run with power when trying to turn the corner … Short stepper who runs tall, but has deceptive speed in his stride … Can pick up the blitz and won't back down as a blocker, but lacks technique to dominate in this area. AGILITY TESTS4.34 in the 40-yard dash … 1.54 10-yard dash … 335-pound bench press … Bench presses 225 pounds 24 times … 445-pound squat … 38½-inch vertical jump … 31 7/8-inch arm length … 8 3/8-inch hands … Right-handed.

 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
I think it's a bad sign that not ONE out of 20+ staffers has a confident opinion on the situation.
I think if anyone has a confident opinion on this situation, it's a sign that he doesn't know what he's talking about. I bet not even Shanahan has a strong opinion right now. Camp hasn't even begun yet, and that's where the job will be won or lost.
My response to that is that ff is about playing the odds, not about being wrong or right. Everybody is wrong and right in this game...it's the person that places the best odds on these types of situations that is successfull...especially those of us drafting in Survivor leagues currently.
 
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Aaron Rudnicki

Keep Walking™
Staff member
People seem to think Hearst is as slow as Emmit...having lived in SF and watching pretty much every play, I can tell you he is definitley better than Griffith...and I mean no-contest-better.
why do you (and others) continue to call him Griffith?just a hint: you should probably learn the name of people you are ripping/discrediting if you want people to take you seriously. ;)
Thanks for the hint...I'm not sure why I do that. And if you want people take you seriously you should add value to the thread and not harp on spelling :D
it's more than just spelling. it makes it sound like you have no idea who the player is or what he is capable of.
 

Aaron Rudnicki

Keep Walking™
Staff member
My response to that is that ff is about playing the odds, not about being wrong or right. Everybody is wrong and right in this game...it's the person that places the best odds on these types of situations that is successfull...especially those of us drafting in Survivor leagues currently.
right now, the situation is a mess and the odds should indicate that. no player is miles above the rest.consider this hypothetical scenario:60% chance that 1 RB will emerge as the feature back40% chance that it is some form of RBBC30% chance that it is Tatum Bell30% chance that it is Quentin Griffin30% chance that it is Garrison Hearst10% chance that it is Mike Andersonhow do you rank the players? sure, there is a 60% chance that someone will emerge, but the chances of picking the right player are much much smaller.
 

LHUCKS

Footballguy
People seem to think Hearst is as slow as Emmit...having lived in SF and watching pretty much every play, I can tell you he is definitley better than Griffith...and I mean no-contest-better.
why do you (and others) continue to call him Griffith?just a hint: you should probably learn the name of people you are ripping/discrediting if you want people to take you seriously. ;)
Thanks for the hint...I'm not sure why I do that. And if you want people take you seriously you should add value to the thread and not harp on spelling :D
it's more than just spelling. it makes it sound like you have no idea who the player is or what he is capable of.
Because I mistakenly put -th instead of -n. I'm pretty sure my analysis speaks for itself. But from now on I'll go out of my way to get the spellings of the names right for ya. :rolleyes: Considering I lived in SF last season, I'd say my comments have just as much validity with regards to Hearst's capability as anybody else's on this board. ;)
 

Aaron Rudnicki

Keep Walking™
Staff member
People seem to think Hearst is as slow as Emmit...having lived in SF and watching pretty much every play, I can tell you he is definitley better than Griffith...and I mean no-contest-better.
why do you (and others) continue to call him Griffith?just a hint: you should probably learn the name of people you are ripping/discrediting if you want people to take you seriously. ;)
Thanks for the hint...I'm not sure why I do that. And if you want people take you seriously you should add value to the thread and not harp on spelling :D
it's more than just spelling. it makes it sound like you have no idea who the player is or what he is capable of.
Because I mistakenly put -th instead of -n. I'm pretty sure my analysis speaks for itself. But from now on I'll go out of my way to get the spellings of the names right for ya. :rolleyes: Considering I lived in SF last season, I'd say my comments have just as much validity with regards to Hearst's capability as anybody else's on this board. ;)
agreed about Hearst...but if you are going to say he is "no-contest" better than GRIFFIN, it would also be nice to know that you have seen GRIFFIN play a lot as well and are very familiar with his abilities. if you have no idea what his name is, then how much do you really know about his game? Since you have yet to quantify your knowledge of Griffin or elaborate on your opinion of him in the same way you did for Hearst, your spelling of his name is all one has to go on when reading your post.not a big deal...just seems like you may be evaluating this situation based on your knowledge of Hearst, with little regard for Griffin and his abilities (and perhaps Bell as well).
 
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Maurile Tremblay

Administrator
Staff member
I think it's a bad sign that not ONE out of 20+ staffers has a confident opinion on the situation.
I think if anyone has a confident opinion on this situation, it's a sign that he doesn't know what he's talking about. I bet not even Shanahan has a strong opinion right now. Camp hasn't even begun yet, and that's where the job will be won or lost.
My response to that is that ff is about playing the odds, not about being wrong or right.
That's exactly my point. Anybody can say "Griffin will be the featured guy." And maybe he'll be right. He'll be right a little less than 1 in 3 times, in my opinion. But if you want to play the odds, 1 in 3 isn't very good for a high-round pick. So saying "Griffin will be the guy" or "Hearst will be the guy" or "Bell will be the guy" are not good bets if you're interested in playing the odds.Of course, you may estimate the odds differently from me. But if you want to see my estimation, it's reflected in my rankings.
 
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LHUCKS

Footballguy
My response to that is that ff is about playing the odds, not about being wrong or right. Everybody is wrong and right in this game...it's the person that places the best odds on these types of situations that is successfull...especially those of us drafting in Survivor leagues currently.
right now, the situation is a mess and the odds should indicate that. no player is miles above the rest.consider this hypothetical scenario:60% chance that 1 RB will emerge as the feature back40% chance that it is some form of RBBC30% chance that it is Tatum Bell30% chance that it is Quentin Griffin30% chance that it is Garrison Hearst10% chance that it is Mike Andersonhow do you rank the players? sure, there is a 60% chance that someone will emerge, but the chances of picking the right player are much much smaller.
So because the situation is a mess you throw your hands up in the air?I've stated my reasons for Hearst being the odds on favorite to start week 1. Take them for what they're worth. I'm pretty sure my record in direct competition against persons on this board speaks for itself.My point is this...the first Denver RB that should be drafted at this point in time is Hearst.(assuming re-draft obviously)
 

Aaron Rudnicki

Keep Walking™
Staff member
So because the situation is a mess you throw your hands up in the air?
no you don't throw your hands up in the air. but to avoid risk, you don't draft riskier players above safer players. Denver RBs are thus ranked according to their level of risk/reward as determined by us staff members. Others may value the potential reward and upside of a player more and rank accordingly.we've had a very similar discussion about Keyshawn Johnson.
 
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FootballExperts

Footballguy
Bell is obviously the wild card. He almost certainly was drafted to be "the guy," but he brings with him some questions: Can he run between the tackles and can he hold onto the ball being two of the bigger ones.
Ok and I believe Shanahan answered those question by taking bell in the 2nd round. If there were any questions that Bell could not would fit the Bronco's mold or that he wouldn’t be able to handle a starting RB’s duties, they would of not drafted him that early.In this particular case, it is reasonable to rely solely on the Bronco’s decision to draft Bell. They have had the best track record of making rookie RBs produce. Sure they missed on the WRs or DBs they drafted… but you can’t argue with their RB picks!Griffin has no real shot of being a starter for the whole season, same with Anderson. Because if they did they wouldn’t draft a RB in the 2nd round.
 

Couch Potato

Footballguy
Here's my opinion: Hearst is getting up in age and Shanahan doesn't envision him as the feature back for the entire year. Hearst should not be ranked until both Griffin and Bell prove they're not capable of handling the job. I believe I read that Anderson was being moved to FB, so he's out of the mix. I read enough opinions that I respect that see Griffin as a change of pace back. IMO that leaves Bell as the man based upon what I know now. I would expect him to get a bigger role towards the end of the year. Carries will likely be shared, like they were in Portis's rookie year, on the front end. As of now, I'd put Bell in the 15-20 range as far as expectations and look to draft him around #30 to #35 to get excellent value and mitigate the risk that I'm misreading the situation.
BNB, below is how I ranked my RBs in the "Replying to Expert Rankings - Top 30 Running Backs" thread HERE. I agree with you that the Denver RB situation is clearer than others are seeing it, and so I went out there with a #16 ranking. A few games sharing carries, then the job is his. Would I draft him as the 16th back (and about the 20th+ player) off the board? Of course not, because I don't have to take him that early to get him. My rankings were not meant to fall in line with prevailing consensus opinion with a minor tweak or to be my opinion of where players could be drafted. They are meant to reflect my opinion of where they will end the season. I am aware others will strongly disagree with my rankings, and that's great. It's why we need to get our real opinions out there and discuss them.

I agree with you, BNB. If everyone has rankings within a few notches of one another, either everyone is so damned smart that they all determined the same thing independently or they are all hedging IMO. If you compare the preseason rankings with the final results in any given year, you will see much greater differences than if you compare those rankings with the preceeding year. My conclusion is that people seriously hedge their bets, unable to step outside the box and take a real stand.

Few FBGs, in my opinon, are willing to do so (sorry, guys, I love you but I honestly believe this to be true). Wimer is among the few who is willing to be very different, and he is constantly questioned for doing so. That questioning is exactly what is needed, and whether I agree with Wimer's rankings or disagree with them, to me they are much more valuable that the rankings of someone who puts ADP out there as "his" rankings. Wimer's rankings will generate discussion, and not a sage nodding of the head with a "Yep, we have that too. We all must be right."

Keeping in mind this list is how I think they'll finish the season, not begin it...

1 Deuce McAllister, NO

2 Shaun Alexander, Sea

3 Ricky Williams, Mia

4 Kevan Barlow, SF

5 Edgerrin James, Ind

6 Fred Taylor, Jac

7 LaDainian Tomlinson, SD

8 Ahman Green, GB

9 Clinton Portis, Was

10 Corey Dillon, NE

11 Jamal Lewis, Bal

12 Brian Westbrook, Phi

13 Priest Holmes, KC

14 Rudi Johnson, Cin

15 Travis Henry, Buf

16 Tatum Bell, Den

17 Domanick Davis, Hou

18 Marshall Faulk, StL

19 Michael Bennett, Min

20 Kevin Jones, Det

21 Tiki Barber, NYG

22 Marcel Shipp, Ari

23 Warrick Dunn, Atl

24 William Green, Cle

25 Julius Jones, Dal

26 Stephen Davis, Car

27 Curtis Martin, NYJ

28 Correll Buckhalter, Phi

29 Verron Haynes, Pit

30 TJ Duckett, Atl
 

Aaron Rudnicki

Keep Walking™
Staff member
Griffin has no real shot of being a starter for the whole season, same with Anderson. Because if they did they wouldn’t draft a RB in the 2nd round.
that logic is flawed.they lost Portis and were not totally comfortable with the RBs they had, so they added Hearst and Bell. I'm sure they hope that one of the RBs will emerge.It's always better to have depth than not to have depth.besides, the pick they used on Bell was a gift from the Redskins anyway.
 

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