Deranged Hermit's Top 15 QB's to own in 2010 (1 Viewer)

[Deranged Hermit]

Ok, it's time for the QB's. This is a much more boring topic than the RB's and WR's, but no less important. You can find the RB discussion right here.

All the leagues I'm in start 1 QB and give 6 points per TD, so my rankings will reflect that. Also reflected is 1 point per 25 yards passing and 1 point per 10 yards rushing.

1. Aaron Rodgers

Dude has a silly amount of weapong at his disposal, plus a decent RB to keep the defenses honest. That O-line is a concern though, Rodgers got hammered last year.

2. Drew Brees

This team will pass the ball early and often so Brees is pretty much as safe a pick as it gets. I struggled with who to put at number 1, but Rodgers rushing yardage and TDs put him over the top.

3. Tony Romo

It pains me to say it, but I see monster numbers out of the Dallas offense this year. All the weapons are in place for a SB run and a great year fantasy-wise for their skill players.

4. Peyton Manning

Mister consistancy at QB. Draft him and you are fine at QB until his bye week.

5. Matt Schaub

Many will put Brady here, but I think the loss of Welker will hurt him a lot. With nothing solid at RB, this team will throw A LOT. Depending on the day you talk to me, I might even be tempted to put him at three.

*note, I see a drop here*

6. Tom Brady

I don't see him as an automatic top 5 QB right now. In fact, you'll be able to silently chuckle to yourself when the guy ahead of you takes him over Schaub and Romo (and maybe over Manning) with thoughts of Brady's record breaking year still dancing in his head.

7. Brett Favre

Ugh, this really urks me, as I HATE Favre. That being said, he's behind a rock solid O-line and has a great RB to take the pressure off. Do I see another 33 TD year? Nope, but 28-30 is certainly within reach.

8. Kevin Kolb

I await the firing squad on this one, but the Phill Offense is as high powered as they come. Heck, their run game is sometime forgotten about for series at a time. Kolb showed me something last year, I think he'll be a steal at his current ADP.

9. Phillip Rivers

Two reasons for this low-ish ranking: 1) SD traded up to get Matthews (who I love this year) so I think they want to return to their ground and pound ways and 2) The lack of Vincent Jackson. Yeah, we all love Gates, and he's enough to keep the D's honest and prevent stacking the box against the run, but he needs help.

*note, another talent drop up-coming*

10. Jay Cutler

Yes, I'm a Bears fan. Yes I know they have Martz. They also don't have elite weapons at WR like Martz did in STL. They will throw a lot though, so he'll have decent stats almost by default. He has to make better decisions throwing the ball though.

11. Joe Flacco

Another one I'll probably take heat for, but I really like this guys chances this year. He has very good WR to throw to in Mason (very under-rated) and Boldin and he has a great catching RB in Rice. I see almost 25 TD and a slight tick upwards in yardage.

12. Matt Ryan

I waffled back and fourth of Flacco and Ryan, but in the end I thought Ryan's stats would stay pretty much the same a last years, while Flacco had more upside.

13. Eli Manning

I'm having problems placing Manning. My gut tells me that the NYG will want to re-establish themselves as a running team, but I can't get out of my mind what a train wreck that DEF was last year and getting down early in games. In the end, I think we see a decrease back to his 2007/08 numbers as I simply don't see them throwing like they did last year.

14. Donovan McNabb

As this board's resident McNabb supporter, I hate to put him here. New team and significantly worse offensive weapons than he had with Philly gives me no choice but to do it though.

15. Carson Palmer

I think he's been given a bum rap in the Fantasy community this year. While I don't see a return to his 2007 stats, I think at the very least we can tick up his passing yards 350 yards and his TDs up 2-3 and you have yourself a pretty decent QB2 with very little downside.

I'll probably take a shot at the WR on Monday and we'll look at TE on Tuesday. As usual, I'd love to hear any comments, concerns or death threats.

 

[David Yudkin]

I have been saying this all preseason. Be prepared for a dropoff in QB scoring and a return to normalcy. Last year saw insane QB scoring. People will be paying for last year's results.

So someone like Brady (who ranked 8th with 344 FPs in 09) could easily rank in the Top 5 this year with the same total. For example, in the past 10 seasons, that would have been good for: 8, 6, 3, 2, 1, 4, 1, 3, 3, 6. Sticking with Brady, he was very rusty to start the year having sat out a year and then had a wide range of injuries. So he has room to improve in his totals. Someone like Schaub can only go down IMO.

IMO, people will be taking QBs earlier than ever when they should be waiting. People who take QBs in the first and second rounds this year will likely not see any value if the bandwith of scoring gets back to normal and QBs score fewer points overall. Remember, in most seasons only a couple of QBs are truly worth very early selections based on value vs. other QBs. Even someone like Manning in most years doesn't really earn that much VBD based on where he gets drafted.

 

[Creed Bratton]

I have been saying this all preseason. Be prepared for a dropoff in QB scoring and a return to normalcy. Last year saw insane QB scoring. People will be paying for last year's results.So someone like Brady (who ranked 8th with 344 FPs in 09) could easily rank in the Top 5 this year with the same total. For example, in the past 10 seasons, that would have been good for: 8, 6, 3, 2, 1, 4, 1, 3, 3, 6. Sticking with Brady, he was very rusty to start the year having sat out a year and then had a wide range of injuries. So he has room to improve in his totals. Someone like Schaub can only go down IMO.IMO, people will be taking QBs earlier than ever when they should be waiting. People who take QBs in the first and second rounds this year will likely not see any value if the bandwith of scoring gets back to normal and QBs score fewer points overall. Remember, in most seasons only a couple of QBs are truly worth very early selections based on value vs. other QBs. Even someone like Manning in most years doesn't really earn that much VBD based on where he gets drafted.

I completely agree with the idea that some of the passing numbers from top ten quarterbacks last season are likely to come back down. But I came to the opposite conclusion that you should value the truly elite quarterback a little bit more this year, since they're more likely to retain their numbers from last season. I'm not saying that this is the year to draft a quarterback early, but if you did want a top quarterback you're better off taking one of the first ones off the board like Brees instead of being satisfied with a guy like Schaub. The numbers were a little high last year, but it didn't really change the VBD generated by quarterbacks last year compared to the year before.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I have been saying this all preseason. Be prepared for a dropoff in QB scoring and a return to normalcy. Last year saw insane QB scoring. People will be paying for last year's results.So someone like Brady (who ranked 8th with 344 FPs in 09) could easily rank in the Top 5 this year with the same total. For example, in the past 10 seasons, that would have been good for: 8, 6, 3, 2, 1, 4, 1, 3, 3, 6. Sticking with Brady, he was very rusty to start the year having sat out a year and then had a wide range of injuries. So he has room to improve in his totals. Someone like Schaub can only go down IMO.IMO, people will be taking QBs earlier than ever when they should be waiting. People who take QBs in the first and second rounds this year will likely not see any value if the bandwith of scoring gets back to normal and QBs score fewer points overall. Remember, in most seasons only a couple of QBs are truly worth very early selections based on value vs. other QBs. Even someone like Manning in most years doesn't really earn that much VBD based on where he gets drafted.

Why do you think QB production goes down? You've probably said this elsewhere, so if you have, can you link? (unless it's subscriber content). If not, why was last year an aberration? What happened in 2009 that was unique that brought forth such unprecedented production?I guess the reason I ask is this. All the QB's being taken up high (Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Romo, Schaub)...all throw 250 yards/game regularly. Schaub is new to the 4000 yard club, but in his previous two seasons, he was on pace. Romo is another guy who if he didn't suffer an injury in 2008, would be a 3-time 4000 yard memeber. Rodgers has hit this mark since he became the starter and Brees is Brees/Manning is Manning - virtual shoo-ins. Now I can subscribe to the notion of this group being extremely healthy last season. But based on expectations, these guys are pretty much going to be extremely productive.Now you throw a guy like Favre into the mix who would be in the category above if he wasn't 40 and such a drama queen. Cutler is a year removed from a 4500 yard season and while he doesn't have the targets he did in Denver, he has Mike Martz. If you are saying 'there are plenty of queens' like Rainman, then OK...but it just seems difficult to believe we're going to see a drop in passing production from some of the names listed above.

 

[Zoomanji]

I like the list.

I know you expect heat for guys like Flacco and Cutler but if they aren't top 15 who is? Garrard and Henne?

 

[Deranged Hermit]

I like the list.I know you expect heat for guys like Flacco and Cutler but if they aren't top 15 who is? Garrard and Henne?

I expected mostly heat about Flacco. I have a lot of Ravens fans as friends and the really don't like the guy. I figured if they didn't like him, who did?

 

[David Yudkin]

VBD scores over the past 10 years:

Number of QBs with VBD of 100 and 75 points:

2009 1, 2

2008 1, 5

2007 2, 3

2006 1, 4

2005 0, 0

2004 3, 3

2003 0, 0

2002 1, 2

2001 2, 4

2000 4, 6

So even with increased scoring, QBs have not been more valuable but have been getting drafted earlier and earlier.

 

[mozzy84]

I chuckled with the favre line of him having a rock solid o-line. I do agree though he should be good for 28 td's. nice list overall, my rankings would shuffle around the 8-15 guys though.

 

[ATC1]

If Rothelisberger played a full season, where would he go on your list?

 

[cobalt_27]

I have been saying this all preseason. Be prepared for a dropoff in QB scoring and a return to normalcy. Last year saw insane QB scoring. People will be paying for last year's results.So someone like Brady (who ranked 8th with 344 FPs in 09) could easily rank in the Top 5 this year with the same total. For example, in the past 10 seasons, that would have been good for: 8, 6, 3, 2, 1, 4, 1, 3, 3, 6. Sticking with Brady, he was very rusty to start the year having sat out a year and then had a wide range of injuries. So he has room to improve in his totals. Someone like Schaub can only go down IMO.IMO, people will be taking QBs earlier than ever when they should be waiting. People who take QBs in the first and second rounds this year will likely not see any value if the bandwith of scoring gets back to normal and QBs score fewer points overall. Remember, in most seasons only a couple of QBs are truly worth very early selections based on value vs. other QBs. Even someone like Manning in most years doesn't really earn that much VBD based on where he gets drafted.

Completely 100% disagree. The trend has been growing in the direction of increased QB production over the last 5 years, and it only will continue. Unless you foresee a significant psychological shift in the mindsets of OCs, the momentum will sustain itself, if not continue to grow. The NFL is a copycat league, and we have been seeing more and more offenses moving away from smash-mouth football and accepting the passing game as a way to assault opposing defenses.Your point about VBD is entirely a separate issue, though. I'm just as fine to wait on a few QBs, given that the overall trend is moving upward in terms of their productivity.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

If Rothelisberger played a full season, where would he go on your list?

I'd have a hard decision between Roth and Rivers at 9.

 

[The Real Hipster Doofus]

Ok, it's time for the QB's. This is a much more boring topic than the RB's and WR's, but no less important. You can find the RB discussion right here.

All the leagues I'm in start 1 QB and give 6 points per TD, so my rankings will reflect that. Also reflected is 1 point per 25 yards passing and 1 point per 10 yards rushing.

1. Aaron Rodgers

Dude has a silly amount of weapong at his disposal, plus a decent RB to keep the defenses honest. That O-line is a concern though, Rodgers got hammered last year.

2. Drew Brees

This team will pass the ball early and often so Brees is pretty much as safe a pick as it gets. I struggled with who to put at number 1, but Rodgers rushing yardage and TDs put him over the top.

3. Tony Romo

It pains me to say it, but I see monster numbers out of the Dallas offense this year. All the weapons are in place for a SB run and a great year fantasy-wise for their skill players.

4. Peyton Manning

Mister consistancy at QB. Draft him and you are fine at QB until his bye week.

5. Matt Schaub

Many will put Brady here, but I think the loss of Welker will hurt him a lot. With nothing solid at RB, this team will throw A LOT. Depending on the day you talk to me, I might even be tempted to put him at three.

*note, I see a drop here*

6. Tom Brady

I don't see him as an automatic top 5 QB right now. In fact, you'll be able to silently chuckle to yourself when the guy ahead of you takes him over Schaub and Romo (and maybe over Manning) with thoughts of Brady's record breaking year still dancing in his head.

7. Brett Favre

Ugh, this really urks me, as I HATE Favre. That being said, he's behind a rock solid O-line and has a great RB to take the pressure off. Do I see another 33 TD year? Nope, but 28-30 is certainly within reach.

8. Kevin Kolb

I await the firing squad on this one, but the Phill Offense is as high powered as they come. Heck, their run game is sometime forgotten about for series at a time. Kolb showed me something last year, I think he'll be a steal at his current ADP.

9. Phillip Rivers

Two reasons for this low-ish ranking: 1) SD traded up to get Matthews (who I love this year) so I think they want to return to their ground and pound ways and 2) The lack of Vincent Jackson. Yeah, we all love Gates, and he's enough to keep the D's honest and prevent stacking the box against the run, but he needs help.

*note, another talent drop up-coming*

10. Jay Cutler

Yes, I'm a Bears fan. Yes I know they have Martz. They also don't have elite weapons at WR like Martz did in STL. They will throw a lot though, so he'll have decent stats almost by default. He has to make better decisions throwing the ball though.

11. Joe Flacco

Another one I'll probably take heat for, but I really like this guys chances this year. He has very good WR to throw to in Mason (very under-rated) and Boldin and he has a great catching RB in Rice. I see almost 25 TD and a slight tick upwards in yardage.

12. Matt Ryan

I waffled back and fourth of Flacco and Ryan, but in the end I thought Ryan's stats would stay pretty much the same a last years, while Flacco had more upside.

13. Eli Manning

I'm having problems placing Manning. My gut tells me that the NYG will want to re-establish themselves as a running team, but I can't get out of my mind what a train wreck that DEF was last year and getting down early in games. In the end, I think we see a decrease back to his 2007/08 numbers as I simply don't see them throwing like they did last year.

14. Donovan McNabb

As this board's resident McNabb supporter, I hate to put him here. New team and significantly worse offensive weapons than he had with Philly gives me no choice but to do it though.

15. Carson Palmer

I think he's been given a bum rap in the Fantasy community this year. While I don't see a return to his 2007 stats, I think at the very least we can tick up his passing yards 350 yards and his TDs up 2-3 and you have yourself a pretty decent QB2 with very little downside.

I'll probably take a shot at the WR on Monday and we'll look at TE on Tuesday. As usual, I'd love to hear any comments, concerns or death threats.

I think people continue to underrate Matt Stafford and Chad Henne as far as their redraft prospects. I fully expect them to both be in the top 15, and pushing for top 10 status this year. I really don't understand why anyone would draft Donovan McNabb or Carson Palmer over them. The ceiling for those guys is low QB1/high QB2 production. At least with Stafford and Henne you have the upside of a possible top 10 finish, with pretty much QB2 production as the floor.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

Ok, it's time for the QB's. This is a much more boring topic than the RB's and WR's, but no less important. You can find the RB discussion right here.

All the leagues I'm in start 1 QB and give 6 points per TD, so my rankings will reflect that. Also reflected is 1 point per 25 yards passing and 1 point per 10 yards rushing.

1. Aaron Rodgers

Dude has a silly amount of weapong at his disposal, plus a decent RB to keep the defenses honest. That O-line is a concern though, Rodgers got hammered last year.

2. Drew Brees

This team will pass the ball early and often so Brees is pretty much as safe a pick as it gets. I struggled with who to put at number 1, but Rodgers rushing yardage and TDs put him over the top.

3. Tony Romo

It pains me to say it, but I see monster numbers out of the Dallas offense this year. All the weapons are in place for a SB run and a great year fantasy-wise for their skill players.

4. Peyton Manning

Mister consistancy at QB. Draft him and you are fine at QB until his bye week.

5. Matt Schaub

Many will put Brady here, but I think the loss of Welker will hurt him a lot. With nothing solid at RB, this team will throw A LOT. Depending on the day you talk to me, I might even be tempted to put him at three.

*note, I see a drop here*

6. Tom Brady

I don't see him as an automatic top 5 QB right now. In fact, you'll be able to silently chuckle to yourself when the guy ahead of you takes him over Schaub and Romo (and maybe over Manning) with thoughts of Brady's record breaking year still dancing in his head.

7. Brett Favre

Ugh, this really urks me, as I HATE Favre. That being said, he's behind a rock solid O-line and has a great RB to take the pressure off. Do I see another 33 TD year? Nope, but 28-30 is certainly within reach.

8. Kevin Kolb

I await the firing squad on this one, but the Phill Offense is as high powered as they come. Heck, their run game is sometime forgotten about for series at a time. Kolb showed me something last year, I think he'll be a steal at his current ADP.

9. Phillip Rivers

Two reasons for this low-ish ranking: 1) SD traded up to get Matthews (who I love this year) so I think they want to return to their ground and pound ways and 2) The lack of Vincent Jackson. Yeah, we all love Gates, and he's enough to keep the D's honest and prevent stacking the box against the run, but he needs help.

*note, another talent drop up-coming*

10. Jay Cutler

Yes, I'm a Bears fan. Yes I know they have Martz. They also don't have elite weapons at WR like Martz did in STL. They will throw a lot though, so he'll have decent stats almost by default. He has to make better decisions throwing the ball though.

11. Joe Flacco

Another one I'll probably take heat for, but I really like this guys chances this year. He has very good WR to throw to in Mason (very under-rated) and Boldin and he has a great catching RB in Rice. I see almost 25 TD and a slight tick upwards in yardage.

12. Matt Ryan

I waffled back and fourth of Flacco and Ryan, but in the end I thought Ryan's stats would stay pretty much the same a last years, while Flacco had more upside.

13. Eli Manning

I'm having problems placing Manning. My gut tells me that the NYG will want to re-establish themselves as a running team, but I can't get out of my mind what a train wreck that DEF was last year and getting down early in games. In the end, I think we see a decrease back to his 2007/08 numbers as I simply don't see them throwing like they did last year.

14. Donovan McNabb

As this board's resident McNabb supporter, I hate to put him here. New team and significantly worse offensive weapons than he had with Philly gives me no choice but to do it though.

15. Carson Palmer

I think he's been given a bum rap in the Fantasy community this year. While I don't see a return to his 2007 stats, I think at the very least we can tick up his passing yards 350 yards and his TDs up 2-3 and you have yourself a pretty decent QB2 with very little downside.

I'll probably take a shot at the WR on Monday and we'll look at TE on Tuesday. As usual, I'd love to hear any comments, concerns or death threats.

I think people continue to underrate Matt Stafford and Chad Henne as far as their redraft prospects. I fully expect them to both be in the top 15, and pushing for top 10 status this year. I really don't understand why anyone would draft Donovan McNabb or Carson Palmer over them. The ceiling for those guys is low QB1/high QB2 production. At least with Stafford and Henne you have the upside of a possible top 10 finish, with pretty much QB2 production as the floor.

For what it's worth, Stafford was narrowly beaten out by Palmer in this list. I do like his chances quite a bit this year.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

VY? He was close to top ten in a lot of scoring formats once he became the starter.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

VY? He was close to top ten in a lot of scoring formats once he became the starter.

Young has to prove a lot for me to ever draft him again. I'll let him be someone else's headache.BTW, love the Audible show Sig. I listen to it on my Zune Touch every week.

 

[MongoL3]

VY? He was close to top ten in a lot of scoring formats once he became the starter.

Young has to prove a lot for me to ever draft him again. I'll let him be someone else's headache.

Thats how i feel about flaaco flakes, that dude burned me in my playoff league big time last year!! 2 games and he couldnt even manage 1 td pass. No thanks

 

[cobalt_27]

VY? He was close to top ten in a lot of scoring formats once he became the starter.

Young has to prove a lot for me to ever draft him again. I'll let him be someone else's headache.

Thats how i feel about flaaco flakes, that dude burned me in my playoff league big time last year!! 2 games and he couldnt even manage 1 td pass. No thanks

Right. I mean, he's made a career out of underperforming when it counts in the playoffs. Enough's enough, already. I've had it with that guy, too!Plus, it's not like they added any significant weapons to his arsenal.

 

[sbonomo]

Good list...I am targeting two of the bottom half guys with a flyer like VY or Ben so that i can fill my early draft spots with other talent. I am in the camp that elite guys will go way too high for me. I am happy to grab RB's and WR's in the first four rounds depending on how things shake then grabbing qb in the 7/8/9 type rounds.

 

[bostonfred]

I have been saying this all preseason. Be prepared for a dropoff in QB scoring and a return to normalcy. Last year saw insane QB scoring. People will be paying for last year's results.So someone like Brady (who ranked 8th with 344 FPs in 09) could easily rank in the Top 5 this year with the same total. For example, in the past 10 seasons, that would have been good for: 8, 6, 3, 2, 1, 4, 1, 3, 3, 6. Sticking with Brady, he was very rusty to start the year having sat out a year and then had a wide range of injuries. So he has room to improve in his totals. Someone like Schaub can only go down IMO.IMO, people will be taking QBs earlier than ever when they should be waiting. People who take QBs in the first and second rounds this year will likely not see any value if the bandwith of scoring gets back to normal and QBs score fewer points overall. Remember, in most seasons only a couple of QBs are truly worth very early selections based on value vs. other QBs. Even someone like Manning in most years doesn't really earn that much VBD based on where he gets drafted.

Completely 100% disagree. The trend has been growing in the direction of increased QB production over the last 5 years, and it only will continue. Unless you foresee a significant psychological shift in the mindsets of OCs, the momentum will sustain itself, if not continue to grow. The NFL is a copycat league, and we have been seeing more and more offenses moving away from smash-mouth football and accepting the passing game as a way to assault opposing defenses.Your point about VBD is entirely a separate issue, though. I'm just as fine to wait on a few QBs, given that the overall trend is moving upward in terms of their productivity.

Exactly. The top QBs are scoring more but worth less because there are more of them. If you let yourself get completely left out in the cold at the position, though, you're hosed. I think the real takeaway is that having a solid backup QB is more important than having a slightly better starting QB, because if your starting QB gets hurt or busts, getting a 150 yard, 0TD performance at QB will kill you for the week.

 

[moderated]

VY? He was close to top ten in a lot of scoring formats once he became the starter.

I'd much rather gamble on vince then low upside guys like Ryan/manning/Palmer

 

[Ghost of Bill Walsh]

Good list. So basically if you're in a 12 team league you're pretty much guaranteed a decent starting QB. While some will be wanting to assure themselves of a top QB and be jumping to get one of the top 5-7 QB's I'm going to wait a little on taking my QB so I can get good quality players at RB and WR. Then I hope to pull the trigger and take Eli Manning. No scientific evidence, facts, trends or such to present to you but just a gut feeling that Eli Manning's going to have his best year yet and will certainly be a top 10 QB and a possible push to wiggle into the top 5.

Last year he had 27 TD's and over 4,000 yds. He's got Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham as his 3 main targets to throw to. All 3 of these guys' games are getting better and evolving.Given that I feel Eli would have an excellant opportunity to throw 30 touchdowns. Maybe even a couple more. Really. We all have gut feelings, instincts and hunches about players and I'm sure a lot of us have paid attention to those feelings about players success and have been right about it. Not saying I'm always right about my gut hunches but we all picked players on just those same kind of feelings and been right about it. I don't always get those hunches but this year I feel strongly about Eli having a career year.

I will go with my gut feeling on this and try get get Manning and hopefully my instincts about his success this year pans out. If all 3 of these WR's continue to develop this year it's going to benefit Eli immensely. Kevin Boss had 567 yds and 5 td's last year and should be ok from offseason ankle surgery. Second year TE Travis Beckham is expected to improve. A healthy Bradshaw will help the passing game. Some see the Giants establishing the run game again with Jacobs and Bradshaw but I feel a little different. With the weapons Eli has at receiver, tight end and rb I really believe they're going to be more of a passing team this year. The NFC East is tough and teams are gonna need to put points on the board to win in that division and as Ron Jaworski said, "points come out of the passing game". THAT'S what I see the Giants doing this year and the reason I feel Eli Manning could be one of the top QB's in the NFL this year. Some or maybe many may disagree with me and that's ok. My gut feelings about a player has served me well over my years in FF. I don't often get strong hunches about a player blowing up but when I have I've been right more than not. I'm willing to take my chances this year with Eli's production. If I end up being wrong that's ok but I will still enjoy the season and have fun with what I consider the best hobby in the world, FANTASY FOOTBALL.

 

[Deranged Hermit]

Good list. So basically if you're in a 12 team league you're pretty much guaranteed a decent starting QB. While some will be wanting to assure themselves of a top QB and be jumping to get one of the top 5-7 QB's I'm going to wait a little on taking my QB so I can get good quality players at RB and WR. Then I hope to pull the trigger and take Eli Manning. No scientific evidence, facts, trends or such to present to you but just a gut feeling that Eli Manning's going to have his best year yet and will certainly be a top 10 QB and a possible push to wiggle into the top 5.Last year he had 27 TD's and over 4,000 yds. He's got Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham as his 3 main targets to throw to. All 3 of these guys' games are getting better and evolving.Given that I feel Eli would have an excellant opportunity to throw 30 touchdowns. Maybe even a couple more. Really. We all have gut feelings, instincts and hunches about players and I'm sure a lot of us have paid attention to those feelings about players success and have been right about it. Not saying I'm always right about my gut hunches but we all picked players on just those same kind of feelings and been right about it. I don't always get those hunches but this year I feel strongly about Eli having a career year.I will go with my gut feeling on this and try get get Manning and hopefully my instincts about his success this year pans out. If all 3 of these WR's continue to develop this year it's going to benefit Eli immensely. Kevin Boss had 567 yds and 5 td's last year and should be ok from offseason ankle surgery. Second year TE Travis Beckham is expected to improve. A healthy Bradshaw will help the passing game. Some see the Giants establishing the run game again with Jacobs and Bradshaw but I feel a little different. With the weapons Eli has at receiver, tight end and rb I really believe they're going to be more of a passing team this year. The NFC East is tough and teams are gonna need to put points on the board to win in that division and as Ron Jaworski said, "points come out of the passing game". THAT'S what I see the Giants doing this year and the reason I feel Eli Manning could be one of the top QB's in the NFL this year. Some or maybe many may disagree with me and that's ok. My gut feelings about a player has served me well over my years in FF. I don't often get strong hunches about a player blowing up but when I have I've been right more than not. I'm willing to take my chances this year with Eli's production. If I end up being wrong that's ok but I will still enjoy the season and have fun with what I consider the best hobby in the world, FANTASY FOOTBALL.

It certainly would not surprise me if Eli posted similar numbers, but I really think they go back to pounding the ball. IMO, the biggest hits from that will be to Eli and Steve Smith's stats.

 

[Nagle2998]

I think people continue to underrate Matt Stafford and Chad Henne as far as their redraft prospects. I fully expect them to both be in the top 15, and pushing for top 10 status this year. I really don't understand why anyone would draft Donovan McNabb or Carson Palmer over them. The ceiling for those guys is low QB1/high QB2 production. At least with Stafford and Henne you have the upside of a possible top 10 finish, with pretty much QB2 production as the floor.

I understand what your saying about Stafford having a nice upside but he also has a much lower downside then someone like McNabb. As for Palmer I rather have Henne, Young, Stafford and even Garrard who was 12th and 14th the last two years in my scoring format.

 

[footballman_696969]

13. Eli Manning

I'm having problems placing Manning. My gut tells me that the NYG will want to re-establish themselves as a running team, but I can't get out of my mind what a train wreck that DEF was last year and getting down early in games. In the end, I think we see a decrease back to his 2007/08 numbers as I simply don't see them throwing like they did last year.

I see this quite a bit... A lot of people seem to think that the team will re-establish themselves as a running team which will hurt Mannings numbers. To me it doesn't make much sense. In 2009 the Giants ran the ball 45% of the time (443/985). Lets compare that to the 4 years prior:2008 - They ran the ball 50.5% of the time (502/993)

2007 - They ran the ball 46% of the time (469/1013)

2006 - They ran the ball 46.5% of the time (455/978)

2005 - They ran the ball 45.5% of the time (469/1027)

Thats a four year average of 47%. So last year they only ran the ball 2% less than they usually do. I could see them running a bit more this year, but I don't think it will hurt Eli's numbers as much as some are predicting.

 

[Brothers Mayhem]

Hope ur right bout Romo...lol !!

 

[Montana16]

I have been saying this all preseason. Be prepared for a dropoff in QB scoring and a return to normalcy. Last year saw insane QB scoring. People will be paying for last year's results.So someone like Brady (who ranked 8th with 344 FPs in 09) could easily rank in the Top 5 this year with the same total. For example, in the past 10 seasons, that would have been good for: 8, 6, 3, 2, 1, 4, 1, 3, 3, 6. Sticking with Brady, he was very rusty to start the year having sat out a year and then had a wide range of injuries. So he has room to improve in his totals. Someone like Schaub can only go down IMO.IMO, people will be taking QBs earlier than ever when they should be waiting. People who take QBs in the first and second rounds this year will likely not see any value if the bandwith of scoring gets back to normal and QBs score fewer points overall. Remember, in most seasons only a couple of QBs are truly worth very early selections based on value vs. other QBs. Even someone like Manning in most years doesn't really earn that much VBD based on where he gets drafted.

Anyone saying that the qb trend will drop off this year is completely looking at it the wrong way. QBs will not drop off and nothing will go back to any "normalcy". There is one rock solid reason for this and one lesser reason for this. First the lesser reason...Th nfl is a copycat league. Teams try to emulate what happened to the winners and successful teams. Who won the sb? Ok now for the REAL reason qbs will continue thier trend upwards....THE RULES OF THE GAME!!! The rules have changed to benefit wrs and make dbs jobs tougher. Everyone knows this and that why weve been talking about it so much last number of years. Its just like video games, in madden the best players try to cheat and take advantage of the rules of the game as much as possible to legally get away with things. Same in sports, teams will exploit the rules as much as they can with the talent they have. In this case its that the teams that can throw 40yd darts and outrun coverage will continue to try to do so. Thats why the saints will continue to pass and thats why cutler will throw a ton of ints.

 

[Hagger]

Ok, it's time for the QB's. This is a much more boring topic than the RB's and WR's, but no less important. You can find the RB discussion right here.

All the leagues I'm in start 1 QB and give 6 points per TD, so my rankings will reflect that. Also reflected is 1 point per 25 yards passing and 1 point per 10 yards rushing.

1. Aaron Rodgers

Dude has a silly amount of weapong at his disposal, plus a decent RB to keep the defenses honest. That O-line is a concern though, Rodgers got hammered last year.

2. Drew Brees

This team will pass the ball early and often so Brees is pretty much as safe a pick as it gets. I struggled with who to put at number 1, but Rodgers rushing yardage and TDs put him over the top.

3. Tony Romo

It pains me to say it, but I see monster numbers out of the Dallas offense this year. All the weapons are in place for a SB run and a great year fantasy-wise for their skill players.

4. Peyton Manning

Mister consistancy at QB. Draft him and you are fine at QB until his bye week.

5. Matt Schaub

Many will put Brady here, but I think the loss of Welker will hurt him a lot. With nothing solid at RB, this team will throw A LOT. Depending on the day you talk to me, I might even be tempted to put him at three.

*note, I see a drop here*

6. Tom Brady

I don't see him as an automatic top 5 QB right now. In fact, you'll be able to silently chuckle to yourself when the guy ahead of you takes him over Schaub and Romo (and maybe over Manning) with thoughts of Brady's record breaking year still dancing in his head.

7. Brett Favre

Ugh, this really urks me, as I HATE Favre. That being said, he's behind a rock solid O-line and has a great RB to take the pressure off. Do I see another 33 TD year? Nope, but 28-30 is certainly within reach.

8. Kevin Kolb

I await the firing squad on this one, but the Phill Offense is as high powered as they come. Heck, their run game is sometime forgotten about for series at a time. Kolb showed me something last year, I think he'll be a steal at his current ADP.

9. Phillip Rivers

Two reasons for this low-ish ranking: 1) SD traded up to get Matthews (who I love this year) so I think they want to return to their ground and pound ways and 2) The lack of Vincent Jackson. Yeah, we all love Gates, and he's enough to keep the D's honest and prevent stacking the box against the run, but he needs help.

*note, another talent drop up-coming*

10. Jay Cutler

Yes, I'm a Bears fan. Yes I know they have Martz. They also don't have elite weapons at WR like Martz did in STL. They will throw a lot though, so he'll have decent stats almost by default. He has to make better decisions throwing the ball though.

11. Joe Flacco

Another one I'll probably take heat for, but I really like this guys chances this year. He has very good WR to throw to in Mason (very under-rated) and Boldin and he has a great catching RB in Rice. I see almost 25 TD and a slight tick upwards in yardage.

12. Matt Ryan

I waffled back and fourth of Flacco and Ryan, but in the end I thought Ryan's stats would stay pretty much the same a last years, while Flacco had more upside.

13. Eli Manning

I'm having problems placing Manning. My gut tells me that the NYG will want to re-establish themselves as a running team, but I can't get out of my mind what a train wreck that DEF was last year and getting down early in games. In the end, I think we see a decrease back to his 2007/08 numbers as I simply don't see them throwing like they did last year.

14. Donovan McNabb

As this board's resident McNabb supporter, I hate to put him here. New team and significantly worse offensive weapons than he had with Philly gives me no choice but to do it though.

15. Carson Palmer

I think he's been given a bum rap in the Fantasy community this year. While I don't see a return to his 2007 stats, I think at the very least we can tick up his passing yards 350 yards and his TDs up 2-3 and you have yourself a pretty decent QB2 with very little downside.

I'll probably take a shot at the WR on Monday and we'll look at TE on Tuesday. As usual, I'd love to hear any comments, concerns or death threats.

I think you have a very good list. The only things I'd add to the discussion is that Kolb hasn't really played enough to show the kind of love he's getting. Yeah, I know Aaron Rodgers was in a similar situation and went crazy, so it can happen. But I think people should temper their enthusiasm for him a bit. He's a first year starter and I'd expect something like 3,400 yds and 21 TDs. Good numbers but not worth #8. That's just me.

As for Flacco, I'm on his bandwagon. He made huge improvements from his rookie year. The Ravens clearly want to open things up with bringing in a stud like Boldin and a speedster in Stallworth, plus two TEs in the draft, not to mention Flacco already has a great pass-catching RB and Mr. Consistent Derick Mason. This is a team that is making changes to start passing a lot.

I would also drop McNabb off of your list and replace him with Henne. McNabb is getting old and beat up and just went to a far inferior offense. Henne I see being in a similar situation as Flacco. He's young, just came off of a good year and now has a beast of a WR in Marshall.

Great list though. Thanks for sharing.

 

[sholditch]

not really going out on a limb with this one are you?

 

[Deranged Hermit]

not really going out on a limb with this one are you?

Sorry I didn't throw Henne and Garrard at numbers 1 and 2. You going to just throw snotty comments out or do you want to throw a list out we can see?

 

[bulger2holt]

Good list...I am targeting two of the bottom half guys with a flyer like VY or Ben so that i can fill my early draft spots with other talent. I am in the camp that elite guys will go way too high for me. I am happy to grab RB's and WR's in the first four rounds depending on how things shake then grabbing qb in the 7/8/9 type rounds.

Same here. I am targeting Eli and Ben in rds 8 and 9. Only 4 pts per passing td, so really no hurry. My first 7 rounds prior to Eli will be 3 rbs, 3 wr's and 1 te. Balance and value are keys for me.