FanDuel and DraftKings.
Here are their policies:
FanDuel. FanDuel clarification.
DraftKings.
And some commentary:
Podcast.
Article.
Another article.
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DFS and Gambling - A Discussion (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LittleLarry
- Start date
Here are their policies:
FanDuel. FanDuel clarification.
DraftKings.
And some commentary:
Podcast.
Article.
Another article.
FanDuel has the better policy, IMO. The real advantage for scripters is not entering lineups; it is editing lineups (which DraftKings allows but FanDuel does not).
When someone is entering a bunch of NFL contests on Saturday, doing it by hand takes longer than doing it with a script, but aside from saving time, it doesn't make much of a difference which method of entry is used.
When somebody is editing a bunch of lineups right before kickoff, however, saving time is a huge advantage. Someone with a script can substitute Joique Bell out of every lineup if he's inactive and insert new optimized lineups based on new projections with Bell scratched. Someone trying to edit a large number of lineups by hand won't have time to do it nearly as effectively.
Ultimately, though, I think the scripting issue is a bit of a red herring. It sucks when a huge portion of the field are pros who can edit lineups at the last second using scripts -- but the most sensible solution to that problem, IMO, is not limiting the use of scripts. It's limiting the number of entries any individual can submit. If each person is limited to just 100 entries, for example, scripting really doesn't matter so much.
In any case, I see this as one more reason, among many others, to play at the smaller sites (Victiv, FantasyUp, FantasyDraft, FantasyAces, FantasyScore, etc.), and not just FanDuel and DraftKings.
Personally, I will probably only play in large tournaments at FanDuel and DraftKings if the entries have reasonable caps.
When someone is entering a bunch of NFL contests on Saturday, doing it by hand takes longer than doing it with a script, but aside from saving time, it doesn't make much of a difference which method of entry is used.
When somebody is editing a bunch of lineups right before kickoff, however, saving time is a huge advantage. Someone with a script can substitute Joique Bell out of every lineup if he's inactive and insert new optimized lineups based on new projections with Bell scratched. Someone trying to edit a large number of lineups by hand won't have time to do it nearly as effectively.
Ultimately, though, I think the scripting issue is a bit of a red herring. It sucks when a huge portion of the field are pros who can edit lineups at the last second using scripts -- but the most sensible solution to that problem, IMO, is not limiting the use of scripts. It's limiting the number of entries any individual can submit. If each person is limited to just 100 entries, for example, scripting really doesn't matter so much.
In any case, I see this as one more reason, among many others, to play at the smaller sites (Victiv, FantasyUp, FantasyDraft, FantasyAces, FantasyScore, etc.), and not just FanDuel and DraftKings.
Personally, I will probably only play in large tournaments at FanDuel and DraftKings if the entries have reasonable caps.
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Shutout
Footballguy
Time=money, Especially in the case you illustrated where a person can take a last minute scratch and effectively change 100s or 1000s of lineups instantly.
After reading many of the threads on these subjects at rotogrinders, I can't imagine for the life of me why, unless you are a person who is on the .05% of people who are cashing in heavily on this and trying to keep your golden goose alive, anyone would play these sites.
All this discussion of being scooped and outmatched-why would you want to invest in something that is akin to bringing a spoon to a knife fight.
If you use the tools provided by FBG (including the e-books), you'll have a knife rather than a spoon. Having a knife is not enough, however, when your opponent also has a knife. When it's knife versus knife, you both lose because of the rake. To win, you really need to bring a knife to a spoon fight. The problem with scripting is that it enables the knives to crowd out the spoons, which is bad for everybody, even the other knives. It's a tragedy-of-the-commons problem.
In any case, as long as the big contests have reasonable caps on entries, there will still be enough spoons out there for the hobby to be profitable, IMO. Finding overlays may become more important, and that may necessitate playing on the smaller sites. (Also, I expect NCAA football to be easier to beat than NFL this season, but I guess we'll see...)
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
This is very well spoken in my opinion--and it really resonates to my problem with scripting in Daily Fantasy Sports. The problem is that the "knife" can be a metaphor for "skill". If a healthy amount of deep pocketed players are each allowed to submit 50-100 computer generated optimized lineups--on top of the guys that purchase your e-books (but that don't each submit numerous lineups)--the result is still a very large number of "optimized" lineups--where many will cancel each other out. The dynamic is that having a single knife or a few knives in a giant war of knives is also virtually pointless. The reality of the situation is that it actually might be more realistic for a person to win a very large tournament by abandoning skill/knowledge and submitting a unique lineup that few to no others are using--which once again bodes the question that I brought up before in one of my previous posts: If abandoning skill gives somebody a more realistic chance at winning--is it still a game of skill?
Fantasysports1
Footballguy
I played NFL DFS last season and did well for like 5-6 weeks, I was winning most of the 50/50 cash games but then I started to lose every week towards the end of the regular season. The competition got tougher which it probably did due to improvement and less fish money. Also I may have been somewhat careless in picking players. The key is to only pick the safest players who have a good chance to get around 2x their salary.
Statistics is important because you need the data to look how players have performed and have a estimate on their upcoming performance based on opponent defensive strength, pace, vegas props, etc.
I think NFL is clearly the easiest sport to win cash games in consistently. In NFL, the threshold is not that high and in the first half of the NFL season, you could cash even with a dud or two. There are a fair amount of casual players who play because they want the action on Sunday. in NBA it appears most people know what they are doing after the early part of the season.
You can win consistently without having a large bankroll.
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Inconceivable!
At least IMO. The main reason is because you're not going to win in any given week just because one of your players has a career day. You start like a minimum of 8 players in each lineup. No way to fix that many professional athletes.
Impossible to buy a strong enough edge to make it worth it
Shutout
Footballguy
I do NOT play DFS so maybe I am wrong but I thought this was EXACTLY what could win a week.
Let's say you a thousand of your closest stranger friends are playing a tourney and, by and large, 90% of the lineups are fungible. Everyone has Gronk. Almost everyone is taking alshon Jeffery that week because they love his juicy matchup against team X. The Cowboys are playing the Saints and the winner is in the playoffs. Looks like a shootout,etc, etc.
And then there's this guy scheming one of these deals and he's eyeballing Week 17, Jaguars at Titans, 1pm est. One team has 5 wins. The other has 7. No playoff implications, no prime time attention. Same old boring 1pm game that nobody is watching. So he sends in the fix and by 4pm that day we see that Kendall Wright, of all people, had 12 catches for 201 and three Tds. Kinda reminded some people of that crazy night T.Y. Hilton had a couple of years ago against the Texans. "Man, he just toasted Player X today."
Mr. Fixer, of course, has Kendall Wright peppered generously into his lineups and, as a result, he gets 40+ points out of WR where all the other top Wrs were putting up 17-26 or so. All the other guys in the lineups are pushes (his Gronk cancels everyone else's Gronk, etc), and at the end of the day, Mr. Fixer is winning a lot more than losing and he had BIG money put into this.
Again, I could certainly be thinking of it wrong but, to me, that is exactly the scenario that makes the difference because looking from the outside in, when I read people talking DFS, there's always the consensus guys and they are always the same small handful.. In a thousand lineups, all the contenders probably have one of 4-5 TEs on any given week. Then you see the guys trying to buy value (maybe Palmer and his cheap price is the advantage this week). But if you can buy a value guy AND you have a Kendall Wright game like that, I have to imagine you're cashing out across the board.
(HULK)
(Smash)
Looks like I'll be checking out the Yahoo DFS thing this year. May still do some Fanduel, but Yahoo's league are always full of donks, I can only imagine that will spill over into their DFS leagues. The scripting thing, I don't like it.
Shutout
Footballguy
As long as everyone doesn't have that thought, you are probably right. Yeah, the scripting. What an interesting story there.
Fantasysports1
Footballguy
Yes if you have a low owned player who does a lot better than his salary and you have solid players you will cash well. It isn't a guarantee of a win though.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Sounds like a hoot. Think I'll pass.
Reminds me of the poker sites who were putting in bots who would always win. Not saying they are doing this, yet. But it's ripe for stealing.
Reminds me of the poker sites who were putting in bots who would always win. Not saying they are doing this, yet. But it's ripe for stealing.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
It's completely different. In poker the cards were "randomly" generated, and the site could dictate which player got which cards.
In DFS the lineups are revealed at kickoff. Unless the players are getting paid off there is no way to manipulate the game after kickoff.
Shutout
Footballguy
I feel so naïve. I had no idea that happened in online poker. But, yes, it would seem unless a fix is in, it becomes fairly transparent after kickoff and you could see the lineups.
Fantasysports1
Footballguy
There is much more money one can win in GPP's.
If you have 1k in cash games you can only win like $900. If you have 1k and your lus are all in the top .1 percent in the tournament, you can make many times your entry fee. This is tough because it usually requires several of your players going off in order to get that high of a score. Still in GPP if you place, you generally get 2-2.5x the contest fee. So you the fee is 25, you will win 50-60 dollars and up.
If you have 1k in cash games you can only win like $900. If you have 1k and your lus are all in the top .1 percent in the tournament, you can make many times your entry fee. This is tough because it usually requires several of your players going off in order to get that high of a score. Still in GPP if you place, you generally get 2-2.5x the contest fee. So you the fee is 25, you will win 50-60 dollars and up.
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Warrior
Footballguy
Or maybe the DB lets Wright get open a couple times but he drops the passes, resulting in a 75 yard, 1 TD game. The DB is going to risk his career and the DFS guy is going to risk getting caught for that?
No chance.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Well, they could always go the party poker route of having "their" guys buy in for nothing and playing against you. Say you have 1000 games going. If only 50% of those guys are paying to get in and the other 50% are getting in for free, that's lopsided. So if you each "win" 50% of the time, they are getting a much better ROI than you are. Overley simplified obviously but if you are paying to get in and somebody else isn't, and there is a rake, you are not going to win.
It didn't. What happened in online poker, at UltimateBet and AbsolutePoker, was that a few cheating players could see other people's hole cards.
The same thing could conceivably happen in DFS (you could see my lineup before kickoff), but it wouldn't be nearly the same advantage.
Your EV is not affected by whether your opponent paid his own buy-in or had it paid by someone else.
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I think you're way off on the ownership percentages #1... unless there's an injury to a player mid week after salaries are set, you're probably not going to see more than 30-40% ownership of a player (that's totally off my head though, but I think you're way overestimating the groupthink)
Secondly, if someone is going to go through the trouble of arranging this kind of setup, he's going to get his money down in Vegas... not in thousands of DFS lineups. I suppose it's possible he pushes his edge in the DFS arena too... but why risk it? Who's to say that player is going to be matched up on your WR of choice all game? (Wright is a perfect example where that wouldn't work because he moves around the formation alot, no?) Who's to say the high priced QB you put all that extra money on doesn't stink it up or go down to injury?
Too many added variables in DFS with too much money on the line
Steve Buzzard
Moderator
Just to be clear on what makes it a game of skill is scoring more points than your opponents, not just most accurately projecting mean scores. Just because you can best project the average points of a player doesn't mean you are the most skilled. Being able to also project their standard deviation accurately and craft a lineup that is unique enough to beat a large field of competitors is a skill as well.
Fantasysports1
Footballguy
My advice is to check on Rotogrinders.com for info. From reading these threads I can see some people have misconceptions of the industry, etc. I played NFL and NBA last year and know the industry well.
If you have not signed up for a certain site like Draftkings or Fanduel you should sign up through a referral like on Rotogrinders incentives so you can get weekly access to picks, projections and other information available. Right now RG is the best source for DFS.
If you have not signed up for a certain site like Draftkings or Fanduel you should sign up through a referral like on Rotogrinders incentives so you can get weekly access to picks, projections and other information available. Right now RG is the best source for DFS.
Hi fantasysports,Fantasysports1 said:
What are some common misconceptions you see?
And as someone who knows the industry well, what are some tips you can share with the readers here besides go to another site? We're looking to build these forums here and are always looking for wise advice from experts. Thanks.
J
New guy ... trying to help other new folks in the thread I started ... and in no way an expert or tied to the industry. But ...
If you are working under the illusion the sites are somehow fixed, consider rethinking. Let's take a step outside of football for a minute
Business Intelligence (BI) in short is utilizing a set of tools and techniques to transform data into a consumable format and, usually, for the sake of profitability. Dealing with linear, structured, historical information.
Big Data is taking a new set of tools, technologies ... with advanced mathematics & physics ... and applying it to non-linear, non-traditional, unstructured data and transforming that information into a coherent format for the sake of profitability
Those are SIMPLE definitions
5% of IT job market, as of last year, was tied to a Business Intelligence job/job title. Within 5 years 25% of the global IT workforce will have a job in the space of Business Intelligence. For the sake of this discussion, consider Big Data part of that growth and jobs
This space I do know ... very well ... and hands down it is the fastest growing segment of an IT organization AND departments like R&D, Sales, Marketing, Loyalty Programs, etc ...
There is a book titled Big Data Baseball: Math, Miracles and the End of a 20-Year Losing Streak by Travis Sawchik on the shelves ... sorry ... ready for download
There is the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Do some research and look at the growth & participation level of that event the last few years
People have; do and will continue at a higher velocity to specialize in this BI space using specific sets of skill & experiences that are VERY applicable to DFS and said people have figured that out
With a little reading you will find a large cross section of those people making a living in the DFS space have a background ... professional degree ... in the space of mathematics, computer science, accounting, former traders/brokers, BI skill sets (Data Modelers, Database Admin, specialty developers). Their professional skills EASILY overlay into the DFS space
They are that good due to schooling and experiences learned over time within their careers and ... reality ... they are just that good and or that much better than the average person playing DFS because of this, opinion. The ability to aggregate; set parameters around; sort; process and analyze data is a unique set of skills and knowing that is as valuable ... maybe more valuable? ... than knowing the back-up long snapper for the Detroit Lions.
Poking fun a little but the binary type ... the science type ... is on level playing field in the DFS space with the long-time sports fan. And, hey, binary person ... I am insanely jealous of your gifts & talents.
I would even suggest that the binary type minus emotional ties to the sport ... no biases ... is ahead of the long-time sports fan. I experienced this myself in my stint at NBA DFS this past season. Total new guy ... but could admit what I knew and did not know. Lot of reading and a subscription to NBA related DFS information later ... got into it
I hit a slight losing streak once I had established a little ... hate that guy ... don't like the team ... guy is not fun to watch ... despite the information I was using telling me to build line-ups using those people. Emotional bias clouding a decision making process.
I am sorry but I cannot buy into a discussion professing the sites are somehow "fixed" against the average player or individual.
People that do this for a living have a workflow established along with a high level of intellectual capital around aggregation & utilization of statistics. They are really blanking smart. They are really blanking good. They have time the average person does not to apply to all things DFS and they win at a ridiculous rate.
Average guy needs to understand this not some myth about it being "rigged"
Another misconception is that a new guy cannot win.
I won in football and basketball last year. It took a heavy investment on the front-end of reading ... intellectual curiosity ... and coming to grips that despite all of my skills & experiences as FF guy it really did not matter as much in the space of DFS football. Different animals but my historical background made it easier to learn. in order to do that at a high rate, though, it took a fair amount of time during the week especially for NBA ... nightly games.
I knew I was outgunned by the binary crowd so I had to work that much harder to get ahead. Typical football week in DFS was a few hours Thursday night; Friday night; part of Saturday and all Sunday morning. Applying myself was the difference between handing my money to a REALLY good DFS player or beating them H2H.
That is the misconception I think most people have. They either somehow know so much about FF that they will just apply, as is, in this DFS world and win or they can wing it and win. My experience is that it is not true especially if you are more right brain oriented ... dislike numbers ... like me. It requires study beyond the level of WDIS ... who do I start?
You cannot believe the commercials ... "hey, just wake up Sunday; throw in a line-up and WIN!!!!!" ... especially if you plan on entering the GPP contests that pay large. You have to apply yourself.
LONG time paid member here but think I won enough free entries in the FBG Championship that Joe & David are footing my bill until 2020. I also have Rotogrinders and Pro Football Focus
The content available here last season and so far this year for DFS football competes with Rotogrinders. Slight difference between them and again my opinion ...
The difference being information FBG has always provided or the spirit/ intent of the information and the board was to help the average Joe ... black-eyed Joe. Sort of like an every man effort, which is why it is as popular as it is. That is the brand. Last year Dodds and John Lee would post specific players and John ... line-ups ... being used. Kimono down & off ... here you go ... here is what I am doing and what I got.
While I like the data available at Rotogrinders, their contributors are guarded and stop short with information. They help just enough and are skinny dipping with clothes on if/when it comes to advice ... guarded at a point. Even so ... excellent site ... but for
Both good sites for different reasons and crosses into what I feel is also important ...
If you lack some of the BI, IT, math type skills I noted earlier AND you are pressed for time, take a little money and invest in a site that will provide you with DFS specific information. My experience showed that I had to "outsource" that part of my DFS experience and it was the only way I could stay ahead and compete. I am busy and have no connection ... slow connection ... with numbers. And I am competing with people that are ninjas in that area.
I am not sure average guy minus any experience in the DFS space minus any ability to mine data and apply it stands a decent chance of survival over an extended period of time by him/herself. Probably need some help along the way.
I think the traditional FF fan or the Sharks type visiting the board in March, who has a history of dominating friends or the office league or the neighborhood league or the league of neighbor's children has to rethink their approach and standing upon entering a Fan Duel or a Draft Kings. If your intent is to win money over time, know your own gaps and realize who you are up against.
Think some quick judgments/opinions are formed once you see a small group of people cashing in a 50/50 or the same few names landing in the Top 10 of GPP. Nobody is out to get "you" Those people are just very talented
If you are working under the illusion the sites are somehow fixed, consider rethinking. Let's take a step outside of football for a minute
Business Intelligence (BI) in short is utilizing a set of tools and techniques to transform data into a consumable format and, usually, for the sake of profitability. Dealing with linear, structured, historical information.
Big Data is taking a new set of tools, technologies ... with advanced mathematics & physics ... and applying it to non-linear, non-traditional, unstructured data and transforming that information into a coherent format for the sake of profitability
Those are SIMPLE definitions
5% of IT job market, as of last year, was tied to a Business Intelligence job/job title. Within 5 years 25% of the global IT workforce will have a job in the space of Business Intelligence. For the sake of this discussion, consider Big Data part of that growth and jobs
This space I do know ... very well ... and hands down it is the fastest growing segment of an IT organization AND departments like R&D, Sales, Marketing, Loyalty Programs, etc ...
There is a book titled Big Data Baseball: Math, Miracles and the End of a 20-Year Losing Streak by Travis Sawchik on the shelves ... sorry ... ready for download
There is the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Do some research and look at the growth & participation level of that event the last few years
People have; do and will continue at a higher velocity to specialize in this BI space using specific sets of skill & experiences that are VERY applicable to DFS and said people have figured that out
With a little reading you will find a large cross section of those people making a living in the DFS space have a background ... professional degree ... in the space of mathematics, computer science, accounting, former traders/brokers, BI skill sets (Data Modelers, Database Admin, specialty developers). Their professional skills EASILY overlay into the DFS space
They are that good due to schooling and experiences learned over time within their careers and ... reality ... they are just that good and or that much better than the average person playing DFS because of this, opinion. The ability to aggregate; set parameters around; sort; process and analyze data is a unique set of skills and knowing that is as valuable ... maybe more valuable? ... than knowing the back-up long snapper for the Detroit Lions.
Poking fun a little but the binary type ... the science type ... is on level playing field in the DFS space with the long-time sports fan. And, hey, binary person ... I am insanely jealous of your gifts & talents.
I would even suggest that the binary type minus emotional ties to the sport ... no biases ... is ahead of the long-time sports fan. I experienced this myself in my stint at NBA DFS this past season. Total new guy ... but could admit what I knew and did not know. Lot of reading and a subscription to NBA related DFS information later ... got into it
I hit a slight losing streak once I had established a little ... hate that guy ... don't like the team ... guy is not fun to watch ... despite the information I was using telling me to build line-ups using those people. Emotional bias clouding a decision making process.
I am sorry but I cannot buy into a discussion professing the sites are somehow "fixed" against the average player or individual.
People that do this for a living have a workflow established along with a high level of intellectual capital around aggregation & utilization of statistics. They are really blanking smart. They are really blanking good. They have time the average person does not to apply to all things DFS and they win at a ridiculous rate.
Average guy needs to understand this not some myth about it being "rigged"
Another misconception is that a new guy cannot win.
I won in football and basketball last year. It took a heavy investment on the front-end of reading ... intellectual curiosity ... and coming to grips that despite all of my skills & experiences as FF guy it really did not matter as much in the space of DFS football. Different animals but my historical background made it easier to learn. in order to do that at a high rate, though, it took a fair amount of time during the week especially for NBA ... nightly games.
I knew I was outgunned by the binary crowd so I had to work that much harder to get ahead. Typical football week in DFS was a few hours Thursday night; Friday night; part of Saturday and all Sunday morning. Applying myself was the difference between handing my money to a REALLY good DFS player or beating them H2H.
That is the misconception I think most people have. They either somehow know so much about FF that they will just apply, as is, in this DFS world and win or they can wing it and win. My experience is that it is not true especially if you are more right brain oriented ... dislike numbers ... like me. It requires study beyond the level of WDIS ... who do I start?
You cannot believe the commercials ... "hey, just wake up Sunday; throw in a line-up and WIN!!!!!" ... especially if you plan on entering the GPP contests that pay large. You have to apply yourself.
LONG time paid member here but think I won enough free entries in the FBG Championship that Joe & David are footing my bill until 2020. I also have Rotogrinders and Pro Football Focus
The content available here last season and so far this year for DFS football competes with Rotogrinders. Slight difference between them and again my opinion ...
The difference being information FBG has always provided or the spirit/ intent of the information and the board was to help the average Joe ... black-eyed Joe. Sort of like an every man effort, which is why it is as popular as it is. That is the brand. Last year Dodds and John Lee would post specific players and John ... line-ups ... being used. Kimono down & off ... here you go ... here is what I am doing and what I got.
While I like the data available at Rotogrinders, their contributors are guarded and stop short with information. They help just enough and are skinny dipping with clothes on if/when it comes to advice ... guarded at a point. Even so ... excellent site ... but for
Both good sites for different reasons and crosses into what I feel is also important ...
If you lack some of the BI, IT, math type skills I noted earlier AND you are pressed for time, take a little money and invest in a site that will provide you with DFS specific information. My experience showed that I had to "outsource" that part of my DFS experience and it was the only way I could stay ahead and compete. I am busy and have no connection ... slow connection ... with numbers. And I am competing with people that are ninjas in that area.
I am not sure average guy minus any experience in the DFS space minus any ability to mine data and apply it stands a decent chance of survival over an extended period of time by him/herself. Probably need some help along the way.
I think the traditional FF fan or the Sharks type visiting the board in March, who has a history of dominating friends or the office league or the neighborhood league or the league of neighbor's children has to rethink their approach and standing upon entering a Fan Duel or a Draft Kings. If your intent is to win money over time, know your own gaps and realize who you are up against.
Think some quick judgments/opinions are formed once you see a small group of people cashing in a 50/50 or the same few names landing in the Top 10 of GPP. Nobody is out to get "you" Those people are just very talented
John Lee
Footballguy
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Scoresman
Footballguy
Yeah I've been kind of wondering if the advice on this and the various other sites really is the advice the writers follow exactly or if anything is being held back. You'd think it'd be in the authors' interests to hold a little back and not give away all their secrets if they are in fact avid daily fantasy players.
Fantasysports1
Footballguy
One example is an expert who has a site where he has projections based on the # of minutes an NBA player plays. There are several factors such as how much points the player averages per minute but you do not know the weighting of each factor. For RG, the main service is Incentives where experts give picks at each position but not one complete lu that one can just copy and use in cash games.
These experts are making money off of services they provide. Not everyone that gets access to these services utilize them properly. They either don't understand the NFL that well, etc. In fact most people probably do not end up using the service close to its full use. The income these experts get from offering their services is worth it to the slight effect it might have on the competition.
Of course if these experts do give out enough of their processes, tips, etc and enough people copy it would make the competition quite a bit tougher. However, there is enough newer players still playing especially in NFL who do not have all the resources and who do not know of the experts secret recipe.
If you are competing against pool of only NFL sharps who has very good projection/ranking system with little to no squares, it will be tough to win the cash games at a 56% to cover the 10% rake. You have to have enough of edge outside of variance to be profitable long term.
It is possible that the ecosystem does get much tougher to win if enough people know of the process, if too little fish are left and if computer generated models or lu sharing become too much of the system. Computer models created by quants that are widely used could be an issue because the computer will basically consider every factor and throw out lineups that are optimal.
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Really good stuff especially the LU (line-up) sharing that "allegedly, does not take place or is not as wide spread as believed" or so "they" say. Unfortunately, that is a real thing or at least I noticed and not fun. Makes someone like me work that much harder to stay ahead
And the point on someone new not understanding how to fully leverage the data available to them through a pay for content site ... spot on. It took me about a month, while having a DFS type tutor, to learn how to use all the data for the NBA I inherited via RG. It gets deep quickly. That is why I like the FBG information. It is simplistic.
And the point on the "recipe" for success ... equally good because there is one. There are proven things you do in a cash DFS football game. Proven variables you leverage in a cash NBA game. That coupled with a model ... you beat the new to average player 9/10 times, That is why I suggest someone new or newer realize not as easy as it seems
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For NBA, I did notice some of the experts over at RG not always following their 'must start' recommedations. Some certainly use their recommendations for a slight advantage in GPPs since they influence the masses.
By no means am I suggesting all 'experts' do this, but some certainly do.
Fantasysports1
Footballguy
The thing is you can't fully depend on what the experts at RG say to do. Yes RG experts do not play all the players they say are must start.
Even when watching the RG GrindersLive streams for NFL, you can't get the best read on what certain experts think. Some experts may say they think something is fine, etc but really they won't think to play that player.
And that's exactly the point. That...and it can be used to their advantage. If you're giving advice you should practice what you preach. Otherwise, you shouldn't be selling it.
Fantasysports1
Footballguy
Just because they did not play someone does not mean they deceived anyone. The key is whether the player is a solid, good or top play. If they recommend someone who based on data is a strong cash play, they didn't deceive anyone. These people provide analysis to help you make your lineups. You have to know what advice is good. You have to make your own lineup.Patoons said:
I know this is continuing with something slightly off topic, so I apologize. I don't mean to completly hi-jack.
No one suggested anyone should be fully dependent on these writers/experts. The question was whether certain writers may hold information back or use the information to their advantage. I've seen some cases where it appears that's exactly what's happening.
To reiterate, I'm talking about players deemed to be 'must-plays'. The other recommendations are very gray and can always be jusitifed as to why they were recommended. However, certain outlets and particular writers have a TON of power in perpetuating and encouraging group think, which is why ownership can be through the roof when these guys recommend a player as a 'must-play'.
To call someone a 'must-play' in an article and not use them yourself is taking advatange of the power you have over the masses and perpetuating group think to gain an edge. It's pretty simple to me: you're an expert who has had success at DFS, you're being paid to write and publish your recommendations because of it and you don't follow your own slam-dunk play? I struggle to find any other explanation for not using a self-deemed 'must-play'.
This is no different than people like Jim Cramer who push/dump on stocks and then have to disclose whether they're invested long/short in a particular stock.
Nobody on the Footballguys staff does that kind of thing.
There are a few people on staff who make a lot of money playing DFS. (Way more than they could ever hope to make writing about it.) Some of them might not want to publish their GPP lineups, for example -- so they simply won't publish them. They would never publish a fake lineup in its place while keeping their real lineup to themselves.
Whatever we publish is our best stuff.
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I do think it's a little odd when players, whether they are writers or just ordinary people on these forums, post their line-ups. I can see posting after the contest starts but why give someone else a lineup or ideas? Even if they don't use your lineup exactly but an a slightly altered version, why risk it? I just get it.
Now, discussing certain players, strategy, matchups, etc.....all good.
Now, discussing certain players, strategy, matchups, etc.....all good.
knowing who is on staff, that's not a surprise as that's exactly how it should be done. Didn't see the same of certain on RG in the past.I have read a number of excellent posts about DFS in this topic. I use to play DFS but I have come to the conclusion that I much rather concentrate my time and effort on the season long leagues. I am finding that my skills in drafting a team, playing the waiver wire, trading, and setting weekly line-ups against my opponent are far greater than my DFS skill set and to me, more exciting. The time it takes me to manage three season long leagues takes away from any time necessary to research DFS. I wish not to be nickle and dimed any longer by playing DFS. So for those who profit from DFS and love playing DFS, all the power and good luck to you! I will stick to my strengths!
The 'gambling' vs 'skill' distinction is one entirely about public perception and potential litigation against the DFS industry. The real cost of this is that the industry's stance means they can't/won't be involved in anything that addresses gambling addiction. There should be gambling hotline numbers on every page of fanduel and draftkings.
I can't help but wonder to what degree the experts' "must-plays" affect ownership percentage and whether or not an edge could be gained by avoiding those players in GPPs. Any ever track that?
Fantasysports1
Footballguy
How many people have RG incentives? In RG incentives you get cash plays, projections, elite plays, ranking of players based on value, etc. A fair amount of people have this service.
You can quickly bring up someone up to speed if you gave them the methodology. Focus on elite plays, look and aggregate projections, make your own projections of carries/yards for floor, etc.
There is some room for lineup optimization based on salary cap and projections. It is relative though because people have varying opinion on projections.
You can quickly bring up someone up to speed if you gave them the methodology. Focus on elite plays, look and aggregate projections, make your own projections of carries/yards for floor, etc.
There is some room for lineup optimization based on salary cap and projections. It is relative though because people have varying opinion on projections.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I'd bet it has virtually no impact. "Must plays" seem to be different across different sites anyway, and those who are consistent across them all seem to be pretty obvious -- typically guys prices as back-ups who are suddenly thrust into starting roles in good situations or guys with crazy good matchups.
Borden
Footballguy
DFS and FF should not have a negative effect on anyone's personal life. If it is then, stop and get help. Seek out family and friends than go from there. The worst thing to do is keep it a secret. I do believe DFS is a form of gambling but I also believe people should be allowed to do as they want. I think DFS might even be a worse space for potential addiction because it's not recognized as gambling and isn't allowed to supply the help that other Gaming outlets would.People can get addicted to almost anything (like dying from playing too much video games) but that doesn't mean that it should be made illegal for everyone. *This is more of a political/FFA discussion and if anyone wants to continue the discussion on legalized gambling then sent me a link to a FFA thread so we don't hijack this thread.*
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I think DFS cash games are very similar to poker. Skilled players will win more often. I also think that bots or scripts or whatever computer "thing" that people have to play against will eventually just be for going up against fish (which still should not be allowed IMO) and the high level players will learn the tendencies and end up exploiting the bots.
The other aspect that I think the non-metrics only players have is the ability to adjust faster and potentially stay ahead of the curve. A metric only formula can inspire a fresh aspect but it has to be used with traditional "scouting" in order to create the best predictions. The formulas will always be a step behind because it's a reactionary process by nature. I'm not saying that I am smarter that the BI or IT or any of the other processes that Who Dat was talking about but the NFL is an ever changing league so these scripts will always need to be getting adjusted in many different ways.
*****
I don't believe that the FBG in any way is "selling out" their audience. I think that they should be producing and providing content and tools for DFS. It is just another form of fantasy football like dynasty, redraft, best ball, PPR, etc.
As for the DFS sites that are sponsors, it only makes sense. Just like FPC. On top of that it's just a sponsor/commercial like every other websites, podcast, radio and TV show.
The only reason I even felt the need to say anything about the FBG involvement because while they have their flaws, this is one of the very companies that actually thinks of there consumers as community they care about rather than a market or target audience that they need to extract the most amount of money from.
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I think DFS cash games are very similar to poker. Skilled players will win more often. I also think that bots or scripts or whatever computer "thing" that people have to play against will eventually just be for going up against fish (which still should not be allowed IMO) and the high level players will learn the tendencies and end up exploiting the bots.
The other aspect that I think the non-metrics only players have is the ability to adjust faster and potentially stay ahead of the curve. A metric only formula can inspire a fresh aspect but it has to be used with traditional "scouting" in order to create the best predictions. The formulas will always be a step behind because it's a reactionary process by nature. I'm not saying that I am smarter that the BI or IT or any of the other processes that Who Dat was talking about but the NFL is an ever changing league so these scripts will always need to be getting adjusted in many different ways.
*****
I don't believe that the FBG in any way is "selling out" their audience. I think that they should be producing and providing content and tools for DFS. It is just another form of fantasy football like dynasty, redraft, best ball, PPR, etc.
As for the DFS sites that are sponsors, it only makes sense. Just like FPC. On top of that it's just a sponsor/commercial like every other websites, podcast, radio and TV show.
The only reason I even felt the need to say anything about the FBG involvement because while they have their flaws, this is one of the very companies that actually thinks of there consumers as community they care about rather than a market or target audience that they need to extract the most amount of money from.
cr8f
Footballguy
Good article (I think)on your chances of winning at the most advertised item of all time.
In fact, you have about as much chance of winning a weekly DraftKings jackpot as you do of winning your state's lottery, since the "game" is dominated by deep-pocketed "sharks" who enter hundreds, sometimes thousands, of lineups with a dizzying array of player combinations using statistical algorithms specifically built to tilt the odds in their favor.
Actually, you may be better served playing the Lotto because at least the people buying hundreds of tickets have no idea if 15, 23 and 36 are more likely to hit than 8, 32 and 41. This weekend, you probably thought you'd be in the money if you started Marcus Mariota, DeAngelo Williams and Antonio Brown. But the sharks not only had those three, they played a few dozen variations that enabled them to randomly hit on Lamar Miller, Sammy Watkins, Cole Beasley and Delanie Walker, too. You lose.
In fact, you have about as much chance of winning a weekly DraftKings jackpot as you do of winning your state's lottery, since the "game" is dominated by deep-pocketed "sharks" who enter hundreds, sometimes thousands, of lineups with a dizzying array of player combinations using statistical algorithms specifically built to tilt the odds in their favor.
Actually, you may be better served playing the Lotto because at least the people buying hundreds of tickets have no idea if 15, 23 and 36 are more likely to hit than 8, 32 and 41. This weekend, you probably thought you'd be in the money if you started Marcus Mariota, DeAngelo Williams and Antonio Brown. But the sharks not only had those three, they played a few dozen variations that enabled them to randomly hit on Lamar Miller, Sammy Watkins, Cole Beasley and Delanie Walker, too. You lose.
This excerpt is why I'm forcing myself more and more to drop GPPs. I'm literally just throwing money away. Or having an outside shot at min cashing.
mitchh1124
Footballguy
Fantasysports1
Footballguy
Yes the Pros who have big bankrolls have an edge in GPPs. Every pro is going to play many combinations and have varying exposure to certain players. Essentially these pros are trying to cover many bases and hope their core GPP plays go off.
In order to win a GPP or finish high, you need to maximize the points on a given week. If your one GPP lineup gets hot, you easily could have scored 10, 20 more points if you have varying combinations. Sometimes those points are enough to finish high in a GPP.
Even a casual player can enter 100 NFL GPP lineups and not have to spend too much.
