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DFS Scandals in E.F.F.E.C.T (3 Viewers)

Millionaire sports gambler explains why regular guys are getting fleeced playing daily fantasy sports

Haralabos Voulgaris, also known as Bob Voulgaris or H-Bob on Bill Simmons' podcasts, is a professional sports gambler, and has been called "the world's top NBA gambler."

Voulgaris has made a name for himself identifying patterns, locating edges, and developing models and algorithms to beat the sportsbooks.

According to ESPN, he had accumulated "a fortune" before turning 30, and routinely bet $1 million on NBA games in a single day.

Voulgaris was a guest on ESPN Radio's "The Dan Le Batard Show" on Wednesday to talk about the scandal that has hit the daily-fantasy-sports industry.

In this recent controversy, The New York Times reported that one employee for DraftKings was shown to have access to valuable data the same week he won $350,000 at rival site FanDuel, raising questions about who had access to what data.

According to Voulgaris, this is not really a big advantage as the data can be found by regular players if they do the right research, at least for NFL games.

"The advantage that he had is not even really that big of an advantage in the NFL," Voulgaris told the show. "The information he was using is basically publicly available on a Thursday. So basically, if you enter a bunch of contests on a Thursday, you can see the ownership of all of the players that you selected and that's representative of that Thursday for the following Sunday's NFL."

In other words, a player can see the ownership data on Thursday and the patterns will likely still be the same on Sunday. Voulgaris does explain that this type of data would have a bigger advantage in MLB daily-fantasy-sports games since the games are played and completed in a single day instead of over a five-day window.

But this doesn't mean the average player isn't getting screwed. In fact, Voulgaris says the casual player sitting at home and watching NFL games for fun is getting "fleeced."

"The real issue is, that I think people don't realize, is the fact that the person who is tuning in and seeing these commercials, and signing up to play in these multi-tournaments, where the winner gets a million dollars, I think if they knew that they were going to enter maybe three, or four, or five entries, but a pro is going to enter 1,000 entries, they wouldn't think it was that exciting to enter these contests. I think that's the part where there is some impropriety.

If the actual casual viewer, watching these commercials and signing up, knew they weren't competing against other like-minded people like themselves, that they're competing against professionals who have algorithms and thousands and thousands of entries in all these tournaments, they would realize that their chances of winning are really not that good and it's really not as exciting as they think it is ... the pros are winning all the money and they are also entering all the contests.

It's a giant partnership between the pros and the sites, and the unsuspecting customers who are doing this for entertainment are literally getting fleeced."

What Voulgaris is describing is not unlike playing poker, something else he has excelled at. Playing regular fantasy sports, at sites like ESPN.com, is like playing poker with your friends for a few bucks. Playing daily fantasy sports is like going to Vegas and sitting down at a poker table, where two or three of the other players are secretly pros, and thinking the game is going to be just like the one played in your coworker's basement.

It's not, and it won't be, and you are probably going to get fleeced.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/millionaire-sports-gambler-explains-why-180100740.html

 
Well I never thought I would see/hear the day - NPR with its morning coverage on fantasy football.

Topic for today? Expected forthcoming regulation of fantasy sports.

I notice that they don't really seem to notice the difference between daily FF (DFS) and general FF and fantasy sports. I think it's possible that if and when DFS is regulated other fantasy sites and sports also get regulated. I don't think they really understand the difference.

It's still on right now.

 
Well I never thought I would see/hear the day - NPR with its morning coverage on fantasy football.

Topic for today? Expected forthcoming regulation of fantasy sports.

I notice that they don't really seem to notice the difference between daily FF (DFS) and general FF and fantasy sports. I think it's possible that if and when DFS is regulated other fantasy sites and sports also get regulated. I don't think they really understand the difference.

It's still on right now.
This is what I was afraid of.... Regular fantasy is like powdered cocaine. Once somebody started cooking up crack, the #### really hit the fan.

It would be interesting if sites like FBG hiking up their skirts for DFS ad money ended up directly contributing to their own downfall.

 
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Well I never thought I would see/hear the day - NPR with its morning coverage on fantasy football.

Topic for today? Expected forthcoming regulation of fantasy sports.

I notice that they don't really seem to notice the difference between daily FF (DFS) and general FF and fantasy sports. I think it's possible that if and when DFS is regulated other fantasy sites and sports also get regulated. I don't think they really understand the difference.

It's still on right now.
Great. Leave it to the NFL to figure out how to throw out the baby with bathwater. Greedy idiots.

 
Well I never thought I would see/hear the day - NPR with its morning coverage on fantasy football.

Topic for today? Expected forthcoming regulation of fantasy sports.

I notice that they don't really seem to notice the difference between daily FF (DFS) and general FF and fantasy sports. I think it's possible that if and when DFS is regulated other fantasy sites and sports also get regulated. I don't think they really understand the difference.

It's still on right now.
Exactly what I was afraid of.

Did anyone really doubt why these clowns and sites like FBGs were advertising/promoting this trash at such an absurd rate? They all know the days are numbered and they're trying to milk every penny out of it that they can while they still can, and when it comes tumbling down it's going to bring regular FF right along with it.

 
I'm trying to see if I can dig the tweet up from last night, but someone on Twitter was posting a DK lineup that had Brian Hoyer in it. Who honestly would have made a lineup that included him?

 
No way in hell fantasy football goes away if DFS were to go away.

Look at the popularity of the NFL with the popularity of fantasy football. If fantasy football goes away, less people will watch or care about the NFL which means less revenue for the NFL which means the NFL wants fantasy football sticking around.

 
MattFancy said:
I'm trying to see if I can dig the tweet up from last night, but someone on Twitter was posting a DK lineup that had Brian Hoyer in it. Who honestly would have made a lineup that included him?
Lots of people goes crazy and start all sorts of Thursday night players simply because it's the only game going. I think they like having an early lead (usually best to fade Thursday games for the most part).

And to be honest, Hoyer had a pretty good game fantasy wise. And I'm sure he was cheap on the DFS sites.

 
No way in hell fantasy football goes away if DFS were to go away.

Look at the popularity of the NFL with the popularity of fantasy football. If fantasy football goes away, less people will watch or care about the NFL which means less revenue for the NFL which means the NFL wants fantasy football sticking around.
The NFL is blind to this though. Hence their court fiasco a few years back where they tried to borderline squash FF by making it exclusive to NFL.com.

 
MattFancy said:
I'm trying to see if I can dig the tweet up from last night, but someone on Twitter was posting a DK lineup that had Brian Hoyer in it. Who honestly would have made a lineup that included him?
Lots of people goes crazy and start all sorts of Thursday night players simply because it's the only game going. I think they like having an early lead (usually best to fade Thursday games for the most part).

And to be honest, Hoyer had a pretty good game fantasy wise. And I'm sure he was cheap on the DFS sites.
he wasn't starting the game. Total shenanigans going on there. wouldn't doubt it somehow Hoyer got swapped in to that lineup post kickoff

 
FreeBaGeL said:
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Well I never thought I would see/hear the day - NPR with its morning coverage on fantasy football.

Topic for today? Expected forthcoming regulation of fantasy sports.

I notice that they don't really seem to notice the difference between daily FF (DFS) and general FF and fantasy sports. I think it's possible that if and when DFS is regulated other fantasy sites and sports also get regulated. I don't think they really understand the difference.

It's still on right now.
Exactly what I was afraid of.

Did anyone really doubt why these clowns and sites like FBGs were advertising/promoting this trash at such an absurd rate? They all know the days are numbered and they're trying to milk every penny out of it that they can while they still can, and when it comes tumbling down it's going to bring regular FF right along with it.
:goodposting:

DFS is a giant scam that is going to hurt all fantasy sports. I'm pretty disgusted at how sites (not just FBG's) have sold out to these con artists.

 
No way in hell fantasy football goes away if DFS were to go away.

Look at the popularity of the NFL with the popularity of fantasy football. If fantasy football goes away, less people will watch or care about the NFL which means less revenue for the NFL which means the NFL wants fantasy football sticking around.
It won't go away but I can definitely see its popularity decreasing.

 
Breaking: US Attorney's Office in Tampa investigating #DFS operators for violations of federal law (IGBA) & Florida law (849.14). Grand jury

 
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MattFancy said:
I'm trying to see if I can dig the tweet up from last night, but someone on Twitter was posting a DK lineup that had Brian Hoyer in it. Who honestly would have made a lineup that included him?
Lots of people goes crazy and start all sorts of Thursday night players simply because it's the only game going. I think they like having an early lead (usually best to fade Thursday games for the most part).And to be honest, Hoyer had a pretty good game fantasy wise. And I'm sure he was cheap on the DFS sites.
he wasn't starting the game. Total shenanigans going on there. wouldn't doubt it somehow Hoyer got swapped in to that lineup post kickoff
this.No way does somebody start a qb who isn't starting a game.

 
a bot does. when an entity is putting in thousands of lineups, it will mix and match many combinations. With QB being a more finite position than the skill players, it is easier to get combinations. Tie that in with looking at it from the salary cap analysis, mixing in a slew of similar lineups, swapping in a number of different low cost high risk/high reward players makes sense. It's only money to throw down a few more thousand entries... for the big spenders, you gotta spend a bunch of $ to make a bunch of money....

 
a bot does. when an entity is putting in thousands of lineups, it will mix and match many combinations. With QB being a more finite position than the skill players, it is easier to get combinations. Tie that in with looking at it from the salary cap analysis, mixing in a slew of similar lineups, swapping in a number of different low cost high risk/high reward players makes sense. It's only money to throw down a few more thousand entries... for the big spenders, you gotta spend a bunch of $ to make a bunch of money....
Horse hockey

 
a bot does. when an entity is putting in thousands of lineups, it will mix and match many combinations. With QB being a more finite position than the skill players, it is easier to get combinations. Tie that in with looking at it from the salary cap analysis, mixing in a slew of similar lineups, swapping in a number of different low cost high risk/high reward players makes sense. It's only money to throw down a few more thousand entries... for the big spenders, you gotta spend a bunch of $ to make a bunch of money....
I forgot Hoyer didn't start.

But yeah, people are dumb. Some might have thought Hoyer was starting.

 
a bot does. when an entity is putting in thousands of lineups, it will mix and match many combinations. With QB being a more finite position than the skill players, it is easier to get combinations. Tie that in with looking at it from the salary cap analysis, mixing in a slew of similar lineups, swapping in a number of different low cost high risk/high reward players makes sense. It's only money to throw down a few more thousand entries... for the big spenders, you gotta spend a bunch of $ to make a bunch of money....
I forgot Hoyer didn't start.

But yeah, people are dumb. Some might have thought Hoyer was starting.
Yeah, is it really hard to believe that a single DFS player didn't know Mallet was starting?

All the hand-wringing about this supposed scandal is hilarious.

 
a bot does. when an entity is putting in thousands of lineups, it will mix and match many combinations. With QB being a more finite position than the skill players, it is easier to get combinations. Tie that in with looking at it from the salary cap analysis, mixing in a slew of similar lineups, swapping in a number of different low cost high risk/high reward players makes sense. It's only money to throw down a few more thousand entries... for the big spenders, you gotta spend a bunch of $ to make a bunch of money....
I forgot Hoyer didn't start.

But yeah, people are dumb. Some might have thought Hoyer was starting.
It doesn't take much insight to believe that Mallet might be on a very short leash, so as a great contrarian move it's not dumb at all. Especially if you have the dough and are submitting lots of LU's. The guy spent just $5K for a QB who's likely a top 5 QB this week.

EDIT: BTW, ~ 7600 LU's had Hoyer in the DK NFL $1M Kickoff Million [$1 Million Guaranteed] (Thu) contest

 
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MattFancy said:
I'm trying to see if I can dig the tweet up from last night, but someone on Twitter was posting a DK lineup that had Brian Hoyer in it. Who honestly would have made a lineup that included him?
Lots of people goes crazy and start all sorts of Thursday night players simply because it's the only game going. I think they like having an early lead (usually best to fade Thursday games for the most part).And to be honest, Hoyer had a pretty good game fantasy wise. And I'm sure he was cheap on the DFS sites.
he wasn't starting the game. Total shenanigans going on there. wouldn't doubt it somehow Hoyer got swapped in to that lineup post kickoff
this.No way does somebody start a qb who isn't starting a game.
We had someone start Luck in Interboard Challenge League. Stuff happens.

 
So if pros are submitting thousands of entries, aren't they just winning their own money? Doesn't seem too lucrative.

 
So if pros are submitting thousands of entries, aren't they just winning their own money? Doesn't seem too lucrative.
With the house keeping between 10% to 12.5%, it's got to be tough to be consistently successful.

 
So if pros are submitting thousands of entries, aren't they just winning their own money? Doesn't seem too lucrative.
If they submit 2,000 entries into contests that have a total of 150,000 entries, that makes a little more sense right?

 
So if pros are submitting thousands of entries, aren't they just winning their own money? Doesn't seem too lucrative.
Didn't you know that they have sophisticated computer programs that make them millions, play thousands of LU's and the little guy

( insert name here of your average FF winner you see on TV commercials celebrating with the big check with probably less than 5 LU's) has no shot.

 
From the dfs forum:


I want to hear from John Lee on these things. I was following him long before he came aboard here. He knows several big guns personally and several site employee/players personally. I think he's FBG's closest thing to an inside guy. What's your take tipandpick?
I have admittedly not read through all eight pages of this thread, so please forgive me if I haven't answered a question that you posed in one of the nearly 400 posts...but, honestly, I'm a little burned out on the media hype, the fallout, and the conspiracy theorists that have pervaded every corner of my (and presumable your) life this week.

First about Ethan. I personally know Ethan. We've bought each other beers and hung out in Vegas on a number of occasions, in addition to talking offline about NFL, networking, and even playing some hoops (I won...he was bitter). Of all the things that happened this past week, I feel most strongly about the negativity that has surrounded this young man. We have heard from DK that Ethan only pulled ownership reports in accordance with his duties as a content manager and that those reports were pulled at a time after rosters locked on FD (where he won the $350K). My feeling is that it would be a lot easier on DK to identify a scapegoat, fire that individual, make broad-sweeping changes to their data integrity policies, and try to pass the entire episode off as a one-time-thing; instead, Jason Robins (DK CEO) has gone on record in multiple arenas to say that Ethan never pulled any data at a time that would have otherwise been suspicious with regards to using said information for lineup construction on FD. To stand behind him in this firestorm without good reason would be an idiotic decision for the CEO of a $1B company (IMO). In the meantime, just Google Ethan's name and read some of the articles that have been written about him...every photo he has ever taken, every forum post he has even made, every tweet ever tweeted have all been scoured for everything and anything that might portray him in a negative light.

Regarding Ethan's hot streak in August, I can tell you first-hand that if you play DFS everyday of the year, you will hit periods of time where you will just run hot. Over a six week span starting in November of 2013 (when prize pools were much lower), I won nearly $100K with a beginning bankroll (at that time) of about $600; every contest I entered that month had my name in the top ten...many of which I won. It happens. Anybody who has been doing this for long enough will keenly recall their hot streaks. That said, I am awaiting the independent investigation run by the outside Law Firm (Greenberg-Traurig) before I cast any aspersions in the direction of DK and/or Ethan...based on what I've heard from my friends in the DFS community, Ethan has done nothing wrong (aside from the obvious mistake of posting his ownership article early) to merit the backlash.

The talk about how much DK/FD employees were winning on other sites was not surprising to me. FD/DK were not built overnight--their success is predicated on a great idea that was executed by people who were passionate about the game. And who is more passionate about the game than the guys playing said game? Nobody. The sites were savvy when they hired individuals who were/are strong DFS players because who could provide more insight into the needs and demands of this growing community? The players themselves. These players took on 'dream jobs' in the industry, where they were working for hot startups during the day and boosting their day income at night. This was never a 'chicken or egg' question regarding those players' success; most were winning players before they took jobs with FD/DK and continued that success thereafter. Imagine if you played poker at a high level and then decided to buy a house with a handful of other professional poker players--your level of play would only get better by proxy...I think a similar phenomenon occurred here. The numbers that were being thrown around ("DK employees have won 0.3% of the money paid out by FD") were misleading, as my understanding is that those were gross numbers over a long period of time; if you see that a figure about what a person has won on a commercial (or in their FD profile), you can generally multiply it by 10% (less, in most cases) to get an estimate of that person's profit.

Regarding the industry and its future...I am 100% certain that government regulation is coming. The only question(s) I still have is when and how it will arrive? On Wednesday, I urged some of my friends to pull some of their monies from their DFS accounts because I wasn't sure what was going to happen & DK (nor FD for that matter) was not getting in front of the media blitz; I thought they might be too late and that everything was going to be shut down, pending governmental review. To his credit, Jason Robins recognized the severity of the situation (a week late, IMO) and implemented the aforementioned third-party audit, while going on his own media campaign to defend DK, Ethan, and the industry, in general. I think his actions were not a moment too soon and probably saved a full-fledged shutdown of the industry (again JMO).

Do I think regulation is/was necessary? Largely, yes. I think the decision to allow scripts was poor. I think multi-entry above 0.5-1.0% of the total entries should be disallowed. I think there should be better definitions of how data is handled at these $1B companies. And I think there should be some mechanism(s) in place to protect newer players from being subject to the sharks at low level buy-ins. How this all happens and is eventually implemented is beyond my paygrade, but I fully expect most (all?) of it to happen by this time next year.

All of this is 100% my opinion, based on my personal relationships with some of the heavier hitters in the industry. I won't name names, but I've spoken with and G-chatted with many of the DFS players you know and the general consensus is that we/they want to continue playing this game that we all love, but with measures in place to try to clean up the image that has been created since the massive (over)advertising campaigns started in August.

-TnP
 
I think multi-entry above 0.5-1.0% of the total entries should be disallowed.
^ From the post above from CC and John Lee.

I agree that multi-entries in large contests should be capped. Casual players paying to enter 3 or 4 lineups don't stand much of a chance when they are against a bunch of guys entering thousands each. Of course DK/FD doesn't care about anyone playing just that the more the merrier. Nothing wrong with that either as business is business.

 
The biggest thing I took from that (great) post from Joh n Lee, was that you told your own friends to pull money from these sites.

I would strongly urge many others to do the same. Or at least pull and leave in an amount you couldnt care less to lose.

 
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Given the perceived uncertainty, who in their right mind wouldn't pull all but what is currently in play?

ETA: Thanks for the post, John.

 
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Given the perceived uncertainty, who in their right mind wouldn't pull all but what is currently in play?

ETA: Thanks for the post, John.
I bet if somehow we could somehow see the amount of money pulled this past week, it'd be around the norm for a given week.

Doubt too many people stay up to date on this kind of stuff, or care... Seems to me, the majority of people aren't worried in the least by this.

Until it happens, and we get a "Can we file a class action suit" thread in the SP

 
Imagine if you played poker at a high level and then decided to buy a house with a handful of other professional poker players
I would expect cameras to be installed behind me so they can spy on my cards.

 
Given the perceived uncertainty, who in their right mind wouldn't pull all but what is currently in play?

ETA: Thanks for the post, John.
I bet if somehow we could somehow see the amount of money pulled this past week, it'd be around the norm for a given week.

Doubt too many people stay up to date on this kind of stuff, or care... Seems to me, the majority of people aren't worried in the least by this.

Until it happens, and we get a "Can we file a class action suit" thread in the SP
I would bet the money is a lot higher, and if it's not, I dunno how much hope there is for our country. Why WOULDN'T you pull your money?

 
Given the perceived uncertainty, who in their right mind wouldn't pull all but what is currently in play?

ETA: Thanks for the post, John.
I bet if somehow we could somehow see the amount of money pulled this past week, it'd be around the norm for a given week.

Doubt too many people stay up to date on this kind of stuff, or care... Seems to me, the majority of people aren't worried in the least by this.

Until it happens, and we get a "Can we file a class action suit" thread in the SP
I would bet the money is a lot higher, and if it's not, I dunno how much hope there is for our country. Why WOULDN'T you pull your money?
If I had money in there, Id pull 100% of it..

I just have a sneaking suspicion, that not many people have done so, at all.

 
First class-action has been filed,Congress is forming a committee to investigate Fanduel and Draftkings.

Just heard Indiana Jones talking to Kenny Rogers. Indiana..."I have a very bad feeling about this."......

Kenny...."You got to know when to hold 'em,know when to fold 'em,know when to walk away,know when

to run."

I'm folding and walking away.

 
no surprise here, it was always felt there was some type of insider information going on with the same group of people constantly winning. I always thought it was more of certain people being closer to NFL teams and players than the avg joe and knowing a little more of the game plan or a status of an injured player. The idea of employees from both companies working together never crossed my mind, just plain wrong.

 
Really good read on Grantland: It’s Time to Stop Being Stupid About Sports Gambling

"First of all, let us stipulate that having completely unregulated multibillion-dollar industries is not a good thing for either an advanced democracy or an advanced economy. It is how fertilizer plants in Texas blow up and take entire towns with them. First, the people running the industry will cheat you. Then, they will cheat each other. Then, they will cheat their individual employees. And, when it all comes down around their ears, they will cheat the country by demanding to be bailed out and to walk away unpunished. One could argue that the daily-fantasy industry is well on its way there. Closing that obviously disingenuous loophole is the first order of business.

Second, it is time for the leagues themselves, and the teams belonging to them, to get out of bed with this industry. As the Times makes clear, corporate officers from Major League Baseball, the National Basketball Association, and several professional franchises are major investors in the industry. (In fact, the professional leagues lobbied hard for the loophole in the 2006 law that created an industry out of what previously had been only a pleasant hobby.) There really shouldn’t be “DraftKings Fantasy Sports Zones” in NFL stadiums. This goes double for the broadcast partners of the various leagues. If you run a sports network and you invest in the daily-fantasy industry, which spends millions advertising on your various programs, well, then, sport, we’re all just haggling about the price here.

Of course, there is a simpler solution. As a nation, we could stop being stupid about gambling. By any reasonable definition of the term, daily fantasy leagues are a form of gambling. You pay money. You put it at risk based on your assessment of certain factors and of the odds, and then you win or lose. (Mostly lose.) Many of the people running the industry got their start in the high-stakes poker boom. The fact that daily fantasy leagues are not recognized as gambling is merely the result of legislative legerdemain and the sweet blandishments of lobbyists. Abandon this laughable artificial distinction and stop being so bluenosed about gambling in general. After all, gambling always has been the most basic form of vicarious fandom. It’s just important that we keep the knives out of it."

 
I predict when this is all over the gambling exemption for fantasy sports will be removed. Never really made sense to begin with. How is fantasy sports a game of skill but poker isn't?

 
you are a fool if you think you're going to win more than you lose.
Me and two partners who have all played FF since '85 decided to try out some daily as a group this year.

One of them had played last year and had tinkered with baseball and basketball also. My first time playing.

  • We have been net positive each and every week for 4 weeks. +31%. +27%. +47%. +273%
  • We have more losing hands then winning hands. We do 20-25 buy-in each week thus far.
My partners and I couldn't get together this past week (such is life) so we did individual entries with no round table... -74%.

But we had only bet 1/2 of what we had been doing the previous weeks. So we lost what would have been -37% of weekly funds by playing less.

 
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