Dion Lewis (5 Viewers)

[RealReactions]

The Pats aren't going to rest Blount or Lewis no matter what. People who seem to know the Pats say White is mediocre and we also know that the Pats love Boldin in special teams and never give him any sizeable load. There is no one behind them, there's no Gray, no Vereen, they are as much "it" in their roles as Gronk is in his.

White is scared of contact. Or atleast looks that way. And resting there players is a concern. The one game blount had a huge game they rested only Gronk AND Lewis. Thats a showing right there that they care about this player a lot. If they are not playing for an undefeated season and have home field advantage locked up for playoffs do not be surprised if they rest their starters for a few quarters. Maybe let them play a half and then take them out.

 

[bostonfred]

2. Last night was the first time I really had the opportunity to watch him live, and fully healthy. And I have just two words: Day. Um.

I was one of the guys saying to tap the brakes after the first couple games, even though I owned him in one of my leagues. I just couldn't believe he could make moves like that every week, so i figured we had to be looking at his "lucky" week, and he'd come back to earth. But watching him every week, there's multiple plays that make you stop and say wow. Every week. He's got highlight reel moves, and he routinely gets 5 or 10 more yards than he's supposed to when he makes those sudden cuts or sudden changes of direction as he catches the ball. I'm nothing but impressed week in and week out and paid the price to get him in as many leagues as possible. This kid really is special. There's nobody in the league doing the things he does on a consistent basis. It's easy to downplay his performance in any given game if you don't see him every week or if you don't like the Patriots, but at some point you realize he does this stuff every week.

 

[packersfan]

2. Last night was the first time I really had the opportunity to watch him live, and fully healthy. And I have just two words: Day. Um.

I was one of the guys saying to tap the brakes after the first couple games, even though I owned him in one of my leagues. I just couldn't believe he could make moves like that every week, so i figured we had to be looking at his "lucky" week, and he'd come back to earth.But watching him every week, there's multiple plays that make you stop and say wow. Every week. He's got highlight reel moves, and he routinely gets 5 or 10 more yards than he's supposed to when he makes those sudden cuts or sudden changes of direction as he catches the ball. I'm nothing but impressed week in and week out and paid the price to get him in as many leagues as possible. This kid really is special. There's nobody in the league doing the things he does on a consistent basis. It's easy to downplay his performance in any given game if you don't see him every week or if you don't like the Patriots, but at some point you realize he does this stuff every week.

This is why I said in this thread the comparisons with guys like Vereen, Woodhead and Faulk made no sense to me and were invalid. He's working on a different talent level than those guys. Is he still leading the league in making tacklers miss? If not he has to be near the top. He may not be built for 15-20 touches per game consistently but as he's proving he doesn't need that to make a huge impact for the Patriots or fantasy owners. He's the closest thing I've seen to prime Reggie Bush in terms of being a legit WR on offense as a RB and he's more elusive than Bush was at his best. Better than Sproles too in my opinion.

 

[shadyridr]

Turned down swapping Ingram for him yesterday afternoon, hating myself today.

I'd rather have Ingram

 

[cowboys88]

He's really fun to watch, but man... 11 touches? He gets it done with the little work he does get but can you imagine him getting 20 touches per game? That would make me less worried about playing him each week. Still, he ain't coming out of my line up any time soon.

Sad day for Lamar Miller though. Good thing he got the TD.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Turned down swapping Ingram for him yesterday afternoon, hating myself today.

I'd rather have Ingram

I'm thrilled with Lewis and his performance, but in a non-PPR I would happily dump him for Ingram because of the TD upside.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Two thoughts:

1. What was most amazing about his performance last night was that it watching it live, it was clear the Pats approached it as a "Blount game". I haven't seen the snap count, but it really seemed like Lewis was in almost exclusively on passing downs. He was basically a rich man's Vereen. He made the most of the touches he got.

2. Last night was the first time I really had the opportunity to watch him live, and fully healthy. And I have just two words: Day. Um.

At halftime, Lewis had 23 and Blount had 21.

The really interesting thing, though? By the end of the game, Lewis had 42 and Blount had 28. Which means Lewis outsnapped Blount 19-7 in the second half with the huge lead. (James White also added three snaps on the final drive with Garoppolo in, so if we count him as a Lewis proxy, it was 22-7 for the "Lewis-type backs".)

 

[Phenomena]

Two thoughts:

1. What was most amazing about his performance last night was that it watching it live, it was clear the Pats approached it as a "Blount game". I haven't seen the snap count, but it really seemed like Lewis was in almost exclusively on passing downs. He was basically a rich man's Vereen. He made the most of the touches he got.

2. Last night was the first time I really had the opportunity to watch him live, and fully healthy. And I have just two words: Day. Um.

At halftime, Lewis had 23 and Blount had 21.

The really interesting thing, though? By the end of the game, Lewis had 42 and Blount had 28. Which means Lewis outsnapped Blount 19-7 in the second half with the huge lead. (James White also added three snaps on the final drive with Garoppolo in, so if we count him as a Lewis proxy, it was 22-7 for the "Lewis-type backs".)

I thought this was interesting, too. Also noteworthy was that while Blount was in the game grinding down the clock in the 4th quarter, Lewis was substituted in whenever they hit the red-zone. Dion was in the game on both of the short 4th quarter TD passes to Edelman, even when the game was out of reach.

I think that's exceptionally good news for Dion heading forward. He's being used extensively in both the passing game and red-zone work, and still sees quite a few regular carries. He's easily a top-5 PPR back going forward, and a RB1 even in non-PPR.

 

[Loipz]

Two thoughts:

1. What was most amazing about his performance last night was that it watching it live, it was clear the Pats approached it as a "Blount game". I haven't seen the snap count, but it really seemed like Lewis was in almost exclusively on passing downs. He was basically a rich man's Vereen. He made the most of the touches he got.

2. Last night was the first time I really had the opportunity to watch him live, and fully healthy. And I have just two words: Day. Um.

At halftime, Lewis had 23 and Blount had 21.

The really interesting thing, though? By the end of the game, Lewis had 42 and Blount had 28. Which means Lewis outsnapped Blount 19-7 in the second half with the huge lead. (James White also added three snaps on the final drive with Garoppolo in, so if we count him as a Lewis proxy, it was 22-7 for the "Lewis-type backs".)

I thought this was interesting, too. Also noteworthy was that while Blount was in the game grinding down the clock in the 4th quarter, Lewis was substituted in whenever they hit the red-zone. Dion was in the game on both of the short 4th quarter TD passes to Edelman, even when the game was out of reach.

I think that's exceptionally good news for Dion heading forward. He's being used extensively in both the passing game and red-zone work, and still sees quite a few regular carries. He's easily a top-5 PPR back going forward, and a RB1 even in non-PPR.

Dion may have scored instead of Edelman instead too on one of those RZ drives if not for Brady being hit at the last minute and not being able to get it to him.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I have a vivid memory of seeing him juke someone out of their socks running down the sideline for Cleveland in the preseason before he got hurt. It's actually one of the biggest reasons I picked him up when I read he had a real shot at a significant role (as opposed to any major analysis on my part)

He looked awesome that preseason for Cleveland and then he broke his leg.

 

[mnmplayer]

When you talk about Elite talent, it means they have something not many other players at their position have, consistently every week.

How many players can get their ### 12 inches off the ground like this, http://screencast.com/t/SpSjNOkFlJ. Maybe you can count on a single hand? Imagine being a 6'6" DE trying to tackle that in open space. Forget it. Even a 6'2" LB guy is going to miss 9 times out of 10. Shifty smallish corners even have trouble tackling him because of his adequate power combined with this shiftiness and balance. Nobody has a lower center of gravity which is a key elite advantage he has over most if not all RBs. then couple that elite low center of gravity balance with adequate power and great pass catching ability with shiftiness to be compared with some of the elite RB greats of our time. He is not in the mold of Gurley or AP, he is in the mold of some great backs of the past, however in running style, and many of those guys did not have the pass catching ability he has so the potential is tremendous.

MOP mentions that he is a product of the system, but if this guy was on KC instead of Charc he would be doing even more IMO. HE would have 20+ carry 25 touch days that would be astounding on a poor team that focuses on dump offs to the RB. So yeaah I think he is somewhat limited in upside because of being in NE because of lack of touches. That goes against your entire argument I know, but its true. Put him on any team that gives him 20-25 touches a game and he produces. Heck even 15 touches he will produce. He makes 2-5 guys miss on a single play routinely so that is not system, that is all him. ELITE TALENT!

EDIT to add, I know he gets points from being in NE system which is ultra efficient so this mitigates his lack of touches somewhat, but if he got traded to the Cowboys tomorrow and supplanted McFadden he would out-produce him easily. We do have to credit BB giving him his shot though. I think after 2-3 years of this even if he is traded he will be a major part of any offense that picks him up so I am not convinced he will lose all his value if traded to another team, even though we must credit BB for shining the light on him. He passed through 3 other teams that cut the guy, but he was always talented. Just needed an opp.

 

[Chaka]

I think WRs are a better comp for Lewis's utilization than prototypical 20 carry RBs, that's just not his game. He is a 10 touch guy, maybe 15 on a good week. But I think his production is probably on par with #1 WRS in most standard and PPR leagues.

I think he is doing what most people thought/hoped Brandin Cooks would do when they drafted him early.

 

[Chaka]

I just don't see any way Lewis would hold up with 20 touches/game. And I think the Patriots agree.

 

[lsutigers]

Turned down swapping Ingram for him yesterday afternoon, hating myself today.

I'd rather have Ingram

I'm thrilled with Lewis and his performance, but in a non-PPR I would happily dump him for Ingram because of the TD upside.

Wait are you saying Ingram has more TD upside than Lewis? Khiry Robinson says hello.

 

[addicted2ff]

Two thoughts:

1. What was most amazing about his performance last night was that it watching it live, it was clear the Pats approached it as a "Blount game". I haven't seen the snap count, but it really seemed like Lewis was in almost exclusively on passing downs. He was basically a rich man's Vereen. He made the most of the touches he got.

2. Last night was the first time I really had the opportunity to watch him live, and fully healthy. And I have just two words: Day. Um.

At halftime, Lewis had 23 and Blount had 21.

The really interesting thing, though? By the end of the game, Lewis had 42 and Blount had 28. Which means Lewis outsnapped Blount 19-7 in the second half with the huge lead. (James White also added three snaps on the final drive with Garoppolo in, so if we count him as a Lewis proxy, it was 22-7 for the "Lewis-type backs".)

In a way it seemed like BB was going with a hot hand approach but scheme wise instead of specific running back wise. BB started with the power run game but it wasn't dominating like he thought it might or hoped and he gradually switched to the spread w/ Dion. In a way this makes me kinda nervous for Dion because BB can switch schemes instantly in-game and when he does so it depends on the efficiency of the schemes at that time and what the defense is trying to game plan for.

 

[mnmplayer]

I just don't see any way Lewis would hold up with 20 touches/game. And I think the Patriots agree.

Its impossible to argue this statement because its not happening right now, but he carried the LOAD in college and other RBs with similar body types have fared well with 20 touches. I will respect your opinion, however since he hasn't done it yet and has dealt with injuries in the past (not necessarily an indicator he is fragile), but I have seen guys his size and style carry the load before.

 

[mnmplayer]

Two thoughts:

1. What was most amazing about his performance last night was that it watching it live, it was clear the Pats approached it as a "Blount game". I haven't seen the snap count, but it really seemed like Lewis was in almost exclusively on passing downs. He was basically a rich man's Vereen. He made the most of the touches he got.

2. Last night was the first time I really had the opportunity to watch him live, and fully healthy. And I have just two words: Day. Um.

At halftime, Lewis had 23 and Blount had 21.

The really interesting thing, though? By the end of the game, Lewis had 42 and Blount had 28. Which means Lewis outsnapped Blount 19-7 in the second half with the huge lead. (James White also added three snaps on the final drive with Garoppolo in, so if we count him as a Lewis proxy, it was 22-7 for the "Lewis-type backs".)

In a way it seemed like BB was going with a hot hand approach but scheme wise instead of specific running back wise. BB started with the power run game but it wasn't dominating like he thought it might or hoped and he gradually switched to the spread w/ Dion. In a way this makes me kinda nervous for Dion because BB can switch schemes instantly in-game and when he does so it depends on the efficiency of the schemes at that time and what the defense is trying to game plan for.

Well thank God he is ultra efficient and we will never have to worry about him not producing when utilized! Phew!

 

[Sabertooth]

I think WRs are a better comp for Lewis's utilization than prototypical 20 carry RBs, that's just not his game. He is a 10 touch guy, maybe 15 on a good week. But I think his production is probably on par with #1 WRS in most standard and PPR leagues.

I think he is doing what most people thought/hoped Brandin Cooks would do when they drafted him early.

Great point.

 

[red]

never bench your studs

 

[BespokeJort]

I just don't see any way Lewis would hold up with 20 touches/game. And I think the Patriots agree.

I don't know that they think he can't; it may be that there's just no reason to risk it if they don't have to.

If you believe there's a 50/50 chance he'd be just fine as a 20 touch/game guy, theres still no reason to force feed him in blowouts

 

[zftcg]

Two thoughts:

1. What was most amazing about his performance last night was that it watching it live, it was clear the Pats approached it as a "Blount game". I haven't seen the snap count, but it really seemed like Lewis was in almost exclusively on passing downs. He was basically a rich man's Vereen. He made the most of the touches he got.

2. Last night was the first time I really had the opportunity to watch him live, and fully healthy. And I have just two words: Day. Um.

At halftime, Lewis had 23 and Blount had 21.

The really interesting thing, though? By the end of the game, Lewis had 42 and Blount had 28. Which means Lewis outsnapped Blount 19-7 in the second half with the huge lead. (James White also added three snaps on the final drive with Garoppolo in, so if we count him as a Lewis proxy, it was 22-7 for the "Lewis-type backs".)

Wow, I'm really surprised. It really didn't seem that way when I was watching.

Maybe it's just that he's the "passing down back", but with the Pats there are a lot more passing downs?

 

[Adam Harstad]

Wow, I'm really surprised. It really didn't seem that way when I was watching.

Maybe it's just that he's the "passing down back", but with the Pats there are a lot more passing downs?

Yup.

 

[Sabertooth]

He totally could have had another touchdown on that wheel route where the DB fell, just out of reach. How many more points would that have been if he could have caught it and scored? 8 or 9 in PPR?

 

[Sabertooth]

Such a huge find. This thread was a season changer. I'm only in two leagues. I picked him off the wire in a dynasty and got him for league minimum salary in an auction thanks to this thread.

 

[JoeyJoJoJuniorShabadoo]

Such a huge find. This thread was a season changer. I'm only in two leagues. I picked him off the wire in a dynasty and got him for league minimum salary in an auction thanks to this thread.

Yup...picking up Lewis based on this thread has salvaged my RB situation a bit.

 

[packersfan]

I think WRs are a better comp for Lewis's utilization than prototypical 20 carry RBs, that's just not his game. He is a 10 touch guy, maybe 15 on a good week. But I think his production is probably on par with #1 WRS in most standard and PPR leagues.

I think he is doing what most people thought/hoped Brandin Cooks would do when they drafted him early.

Great point and based on how he is used the Patriots would seem to agree. Consider on one play they lined him out wide against Miami's best cover CB (Grimes). But he wasn't a decoy. The play was called for him on a go route. Not only that but it would've likely gone for a TD if Lewis had been more aware of the ball coming in when it did.

How many RBs would get matched up against the opposing team's No. 1 CB and have a play designed for them? I can't think of anyone other than maybe Sproles.

And I agree with Sabertooth, the pimping of Lewis in this thread was huge for the people who got him. I spent more than 50% of my FAAB to get him and the only thought I've had since then is I probably underpaid. He's been terrific and there is no logical reason to believe it isn't going to continue.

 

[Tony97gtp]

He's essentially sproles in his prime on the saints, but I think if healthy his stats could be better.

2012 with saints 75 receptions 667 yards and 7 td's. 244 rush yards and 2 td's. If he can best that then I'll gladly enjoy the ride!

 

[[icon]]

I see a lot of talk about sproles here... not a terrible comp. That said I think, to my eye, Lewis runs with significantly more power, has a bit better elusiveness, and comparable burst. I'd love to see their elusiveness rating (PFF subscription stat I think?), and Yards after Contact data for the two.

My thoughts/projections at this point....

IF HEALTHY, I COULD SEE HIM "HIGH-SIDE OF PROBABLE"LANDING AT:
(high side of probable meaning the higher end of his probable range)

RUSH: 110-120att for 500-600yds and 4-6TDs
REC: 80-90rec for 800-900yds and 4-6TDs
POINTS: 260-270pts is not out of the realm of possibility in PPR, which would have put him as RB5ish last year.

HIS FLOOR IMO:

RUSH: 90att for 450 and 3-4TD
REC: 65-70rec for 650-750yds and 3-4TD
POINTS: about 210-220pts in PPR being his floor if he's healthy.... or RB9 to RB10 last year

HIS CEILING?

Dare I say Lewis could get within sight of the 400pt barrier...350 (RB1 last year) would have him averaging 16ppg going forward

 

[cowboys88]

16 ppg in a PPR is doable, assuming BB doesn't go all BB on us.

 

[tandl71]

Finally pulled the trigger on a 2 player trade in PPR:

Gave: Gio + Denver D

Got: Lewis + Blount

Have Seattle behind so not a huge downgrade at D (esp looking at DEN 2nd half schedule)... I think Lewis is a true difference maker when healthy.... If something happens and he's not healthy, I think Blount will be handed the load (with part of the workload going over to the pass game).

At the very least... it's one more reason for me to enjoy rooting for him

Trade rape.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

When you talk about Elite talent, it means they have something not many other players at their position have, consistently every week.

How many players can get their ### 12 inches off the ground like this, http://screencast.com/t/SpSjNOkFlJ. Maybe you can count on a single hand? Imagine being a 6'6" DE trying to tackle that in open space. Forget it. Even a 6'2" LB guy is going to miss 9 times out of 10. Shifty smallish corners even have trouble tackling him because of his adequate power combined with this shiftiness and balance. Nobody has a lower center of gravity which is a key elite advantage he has over most if not all RBs. then couple that elite low center of gravity balance with adequate power and great pass catching ability with shiftiness to be compared with some of the elite RB greats of our time. He is not in the mold of Gurley or AP, he is in the mold of some great backs of the past, however in running style, and many of those guys did not have the pass catching ability he has so the potential is tremendous.

MOP mentions that he is a product of the system, but if this guy was on KC instead of Charc he would be doing even more IMO. HE would have 20+ carry 25 touch days that would be astounding on a poor team that focuses on dump offs to the RB. So yeaah I think he is somewhat limited in upside because of being in NE because of lack of touches. That goes against your entire argument I know, but its true. Put him on any team that gives him 20-25 touches a game and he produces. Heck even 15 touches he will produce. He makes 2-5 guys miss on a single play routinely so that is not system, that is all him. ELITE TALENT!

EDIT to add, I know he gets points from being in NE system which is ultra efficient so this mitigates his lack of touches somewhat, but if he got traded to the Cowboys tomorrow and supplanted McFadden he would out-produce him easily. We do have to credit BB giving him his shot though. I think after 2-3 years of this even if he is traded he will be a major part of any offense that picks him up so I am not convinced he will lose all his value if traded to another team, even though we must credit BB for shining the light on him. He passed through 3 other teams that cut the guy, but he was always talented. Just needed an opp.

If you are going to put me in my place this is how its done. Great points and while I was having a little fun riling up the natives last night I think you have some valid points. I don't see him as a 25 touch guy unless 20 of them are screen passes but I get what you are saying. I think he is optimal when he gets a certain number of touches and whatever numbers roll out form that set be it 50 yds, 75 yds, 100 yds and TD, you get whatever those number of plays are going to yield. Blount is going to typically have more carries and is likely to see the goal line touches. I want to say though I'm happy as hell to own this guy but I can guarantee that there will be a couple of weeks when folks come in here and cuss. I managed to try and take a shot when Lewis had a strong performance, it will be ez for folks to pile on when he has an off week.

It's a very dangerous game that owners are playing with Lewis. Not one Dion Lewis owner can say they weren't crapping all over themselves when it looked like Blount was going to see most of the snaps early on last night. I was so happy he managed 3/50 rec the 1st 2 drives, then he does the rest and you actually see folks coming in here and asking for more...maybe that's what kind of triggered it or pushed me to want to grapple with some folks, I love his production, not sold on him being elite talent just yet.

Great post, way to show some of these folks how its done

 

[Titan]

He reminds me of Tiki Barber. Obviously not quite as big, but Barber was a smaller back but he was a very north/south type runner for a smaller back. Dion almost always has he shoulders square (love the jump cuts where he keeps his shoulders square, ready to explode down field).

 

[ghostguy123]

MOP is as bad as Lewis is good......................................

 

[gabes1919]

I just don't see any way Lewis would hold up with 20 touches/game. And I think the Patriots agree.

As others have said, I don't know if he touches less because the pats think he's injury prone but I think it is clear at this point that they value him enough to want to take special care of his health. They pull him whenever they pull the other key starters. That being said, he may never get 20 touches a game but he doesn't need it. He still puts up great numbers.

On another note, anybody else notice that they had Grimes covering Lewis at some point last night? Talk about respect, he's getting number 1 coverage at times.

 

[Deamon]

I'm legitimately worried that the pats are 13-1 and clinched 1st in afc and dont give him much work championship week.

 

[matuski]

I just don't see any way Lewis would hold up with 20 touches/game. And I think the Patriots agree.

There are 2 players in the league averaging 20 (Forte 21.0/AP 20.0) touches per game. By the end of the year that number might be 3 or 4 (Bell/Gurley maybe?).

Apparently most teams feel that way about pretty much every RB.

 

[[icon]]

I just don't see any way Lewis would hold up with 20 touches/game. And I think the Patriots agree.

As others have said, I don't know if he touches less because the pats think he's injury prone but I think it is clear at this point that they value him enough to want to take special care of his health. They pull him whenever they pull the other key starters. That being said, he may never get 20 touches a game but he doesn't need it. He still puts up great numbers.On another note, anybody else notice that they had Grimes covering Lewis at some point last night? Talk about respect, he's getting number 1 coverage at times.

He's not going to be a 20 touch per week guy because of the breadth and style of Patriots offense. Thus far in 7 games they have averaged:

41 pass plays

22 rush plays

So they're running a 65/35 split right now.

Figure 60 slices of pie per week (KISS) between:

Edelman (11 per game)

Gronk (9 per game)

Lewis (7.5 per game pass / 7.5 per game rush)

Amendola (4 per game)

Lafell (averaging 7 per game since returning)

Blount (10 per game rush)

Chandler/Martin/White/Cadet/Etc (7 per game pass & Rush)

When in the game, Lewis is averaging 14-15 touches, and that's including the "low" 10 touch Indy game.

15 touches per game... Currently dead even 50/50 split between pass/rush. He's currently averaging 1.23 points per touch in PPR... Meaning his baseline going forward THEORETICALLY should be around 18.5ppg assuming the last half plays out in the ballpark of the first half. Injuries, role shift could all change that.

To put something in perspective... Lewis has played 6 of 8 weeks (bye week / missed week)... He is 4th in PPR scoring. On a per-game basis in PPR he is the highest scoring back not named Freeman.

 

[Bayhawks]

I just don't see any way Lewis would hold up with 20 touches/game. And I think the Patriots agree.

As others have said, I don't know if he touches less because the pats think he's injury prone but I think it is clear at this point that they value him enough to want to take special care of his health. They pull him whenever they pull the other key starters. That being said, he may never get 20 touches a game but he doesn't need it. He still puts up great numbers.On another note, anybody else notice that they had Grimes covering Lewis at some point last night? Talk about respect, he's getting number 1 coverage at times.

He's not going to be a 20 touch per week guy because of the breadth and style of Patriots offense.Thus far in 7 games they have averaged:

41 pass plays

22 rush plays

So they're running a 65/35 split right now.

Figure 60 slices of pie per week (KISS) between:

Edelman (11 per game)

Gronk (9 per game)

Lewis (7.5 per game pass / 7.5 per game rush)

Amendola (4 per game)

Lafell (averaging 7 per game since returning)

Blount (10 per game rush)

Chandler/Martin/White/Cadet/Etc (7 per game pass & Rush)

When in the game, Lewis is averaging 14-15 touches, and that's including the "low" 10 touch Indy game.

15 touches per game... Currently dead even 50/50 split between pass/rush. He's currently averaging 1.23 points per touch in PPR... Meaning his baseline going forward THEORETICALLY should be around 18.5ppg assuming the last half plays out in the ballpark of the first half. Injuries, role shift could all change that.

To put something in perspective... Lewis has played 6 of 8 weeks (bye week / missed week)... He is 4th in PPR scoring. On a per-game basis in PPR he is the highest scoring back not named Freeman.

A couple things.

1st-I'm not sure where you're getting the 14-15 touches/game average for Lewis? I see him having 77 touches in 6 games=12.8/game. That's also impacted by the fact that he got 19 touches week 1 with Blount out; he hasn't gotten more than 14 in a game since.

2nd-When you say 7.5 pieces of the pie rushing AND receiving for Lewis, what is that based on? He's averaging 6 rushes/game since Blount returned, I'm not sure why you're predicting that to increase. Also, he's averaging 5.3 receptions/game so far, why are you predicting over 2 catches/game more?

3rd-As far as Lewis being #2 in ppg (PPR scoring), I think you're off. I have him with 112.9 points over 6 games. That's 18.8 ppg. Freeman, Charles, Bell, and Foster all averaging more than that. Obviously Charles and Foster are out, but he still has Bell and Freeman ahead of him.

4th-You say he's averaging 1.23 points per touch, I show 1.46 (112.9 points/77 touches). Both numbers are VERY high. If I'm not mistaken, Charles led the league in FF points/touch last year with 1.04.

Unless I'm mistaken, you're predicting Lewis to average more carries than he's been getting, more catches than he's been getting, AND sustain a ridiculously high points/touch average to 18.5 ppg over the rest of the season.

I'm loving the fact that he's done what he's done so far, but I think your expectations are a little optimistic.

 

[[icon]]

I didn't factor for Bell's 2 game suspension... Sorry just waking up, still in bed,and running all this on my phone.

Okay so he's dropped all the way from #2 to #3 PPG (feel free to roster Charles or foster and cross your fingers, if you wish).... I had no idea what I was thinking!! Nevermind, guy is a bum.

My rushing numbers were on the year, adjust for Blount and take 1 away. Okay.

My 7.5 passing was targets per game. If you want to go by actual touches that's fine.. His 1.4ish number looks even better then.

Bottom line, the kid is a MONSTER in PPR and, if healthy, is somewhat of a lock for top 5 RB going forward. Any detractors are simply picking nits...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I didn't factor for Bell's 2 game suspension... Sorry just waking up, still in bed,and running all this on my phone.

Okay so he's dropped all the way from #2 to #3 PPG.... I had no idea what I was thinking!! Nevermind, guy is a bum.

My rushing numbers were on the year, adjust for Blount and take 1 away. Okay.

My 7.5 passing was targets per game. If you want to go by actual touches that's fine.. His 1.4ish number looks even better then.

Bottom line, the kid is a MONSTER in PPR and, if healthy, is somewhat of a lock for top 5 RB going forward. Any detractors are simply picking nits...

tmi

 

[Bayhawks]

I didn't factor for Bell's 2 game suspension... Sorry just waking up, still in bed,and running all this on my phone.

Okay so he's dropped all the way from #2 to #3 PPG (feel free to roster Charles or foster and cross your fingers, if you wish).... I had no idea what I was thinking!! Nevermind, guy is a bum.

My rushing numbers were on the year, adjust for Blount and take 1 away. Okay.

My 7.5 passing was targets per game. If you want to go by actual touches that's fine.. His 1.4ish number looks even better then.

Bottom line, the kid is a MONSTER in PPR and, if healthy, is somewhat of a lock for top 5 RB going forward. Any detractors are simply picking nits...

Not picking nits, but saying he is a lock for top-5 is being optimistic. He would have to continue to produce a unrealistically high points/touch ration (as noted, his 1.46 average dwarfs last year's #1). If that happens, great for you, me, and anyone else who was lucky enough to draft/claim him. But to say he is a lock for top-5 is just wrong. Could he be top-5? Sure. Is it a lock? No.

 

[[icon]]

He would have to continue to produce a unrealistically high points/touch ration (as noted, his 1.46 average dwarfs last year's #1).

If only there was a reallllly easy way to explain why he's .3 points per touch higher than Charles last year in PPR....

Hrmmmm... Let's put our thinking hats on fellas....

Here's a clue: .50 vs .17

 

[Bayhawks]

I didn't factor for Bell's 2 game suspension... Sorry just waking up, still in bed,and running all this on my phone.

Okay so he's dropped all the way from #2 to #3 PPG (feel free to roster Charles or foster and cross your fingers, if you wish).... I had no idea what I was thinking!! Nevermind, guy is a bum.

My rushing numbers were on the year, adjust for Blount and take 1 away. Okay.

My 7.5 passing was targets per game. If you want to go by actual touches that's fine.. His 1.4ish number looks even better then.

Bottom line, the kid is a MONSTER in PPR and, if healthy, is somewhat of a lock for top 5 RB going forward. Any detractors are simply picking nits...

Not picking nits, but saying he is a lock for top-5 is being optimistic. He would have to continue to produce a unrealistically high points/touch ration (as noted, his 1.46 average dwarfs last year's #1). If that happens, great for you, me, and anyone else who was lucky enough to draft/claim him. But to say he is a lock for top-5 is just wrong. Could he be top-5? Sure. Is it a lock? No.

If only there was a reallllly easy way to explain why he's .3 points per touch higher than Charles last year in PPR....Hrmmmm... Let's put our thinking hats on fellas....

I wonder what REALLLLLLLY simple explanation there could be for that.... In PPR....

Maybe you're trying to say it's because he is catching more balls/game than Charles did?

Because you'd be over-simplifying it.

Forte had 102 catches last year, but he only averaged .94 ff points/touch.

The REALLLLLLLLLy simple explanation isn't b/c he is catching passes, like you seem to think, it's because he is catching a lot of passes, and scoring TDs at a high rate/touch.

TDs are volatile, though, unless you are a GL runner, or GL target. I have Lewis, and as long as he is healthy, he's in my lineup, but if I were to bet on his points per touch and TD rate to continue, I'd bet against both.

 

[Anarchy99]

I'm legitimately worried that the pats are 13-1 and clinched 1st in afc and dont give him much work championship week.

CIN and DEN each have zero losses. They both would need to have four losses each for NE to have clinched home field at 13-1. Both would have to go 2-4 In their next 6 games. I don't see it.

 

[[icon]]

There now you went and made it too simple.

My point isn't as simple as number of passes caught, it's his "product mix" so to speak.... about 50% of his touches are passes, which means he earns about .5pts per touch in PPR purely from the act of catching the ball alone. That Charles number youve hung your hat on repeatedly accounts for a rush/catch ratio of 5:1 or approximately .16 points per touch coming from reception. Again, yardage/TD independent.

Right away that accounts for this allegedly "insurmountable" gap you keep referring to between Charles and Lewis on a per-touch basis.

 

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I'll add his TD/game rate isn't exactly outlandish considering he's getting a lot of goal line love.

To maintain his .6 TD/game rate he would need to score 4.8TDs for the rest of the season.... If you really want to "bet against that" I'll be happy to give you action at even money. Just say the word

 

[Slider]

I've owned him off and on for years and loved him at Pitt. I traded him last week because he's just not durable. I know I'm way in the minority but I love his talent and don't like his situation. Good luck with him and I hope he does well but if you can get a high first I'd move him.

 

[Sabertooth]

I didn't factor for Bell's 2 game suspension... Sorry just waking up, still in bed,and running all this on my phone.

Okay so he's dropped all the way from #2 to #3 PPG (feel free to roster Charles or foster and cross your fingers, if you wish).... I had no idea what I was thinking!! Nevermind, guy is a bum.

My rushing numbers were on the year, adjust for Blount and take 1 away. Okay.

My 7.5 passing was targets per game. If you want to go by actual touches that's fine.. His 1.4ish number looks even better then.

Bottom line, the kid is a MONSTER in PPR and, if healthy, is somewhat of a lock for top 5 RB going forward. Any detractors are simply picking nits...

Not picking nits, but saying he is a lock for top-5 is being optimistic. He would have to continue to produce a unrealistically high points/touch ration (as noted, his 1.46 average dwarfs last year's #1). If that happens, great for you, me, and anyone else who was lucky enough to draft/claim him. But to say he is a lock for top-5 is just wrong. Could he be top-5? Sure. Is it a lock? No.

Do you honestly thin Freeman is going to keep up his pace? I don't.

 

[Slider]

But you think Lewis will improve?

 

[Sabertooth]

But you think Lewis will improve?

Why would he need to improve? He's money already. If he just stays steady, I'll be happy as can be.