hoffman0001
Footballguy
The question is..does the hoddie finally realize what he has and keep him a viable fantasy starter? If so I see a top 15 PPR RB in 2018. If you have him hold him.
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Dion Lewis (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ex-ghost
- Start date
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Between him and Gurley I had two championships wrapped up by the afternoon on Sunday 
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zamboni
Footballguy
The way the Pats often refuse to pay up for their own, I think another team may lure him away for a bit more money (not huge money) and a promise to give him a bigger role.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Either way Lewis is a big time holdzamboni said:
He almost has to be. One of those guys that is just hard to move at a decent value because of injury history.Either way Lewis is a big time hold
I’m a big fan and have him dirt cheap in an auction league that allows up to four keepers. He always delivers when he gets the chance.
That having been said, I would move him for close to equal value because he will get hurt again.
If you can get close to full value- pull the trigger. His value will never be higher than right now.
That having been said, I would move him for close to equal value because he will get hurt again.
If you can get close to full value- pull the trigger. His value will never be higher than right now.
Warhogs
Footballguy
Completely agree here. What would you expect to get if you traded him? I don't see anyone offering me a first round rookie pick for him. If the pick is outside round 1 I might as well just keep him and use him and when he is hurt or not getting carries he can sit on my bench. He is very tough to trade away for any real value and I own him on several teams.
strong
Footballguy
i'm so annoyed.
this is exactly what i was thinking all offseason, even when the pats brought in all the other backs. it was an unpopular opinion and he was generally an afterthought around RB50.
and i figured we'd know week 1 if the pats had plans to lean on him and... he was in on a couple kickoffs and like three or four plays. he was only in on like 10% of the plays the first few weeks.
so i started to listen to the naysayers who said he'd lost a step and cut him.
damnit...
This was probably one of the most annoying situations in the league this year. Not for the same reasons you're annoyed, but it was still super annoying for me.
I try to leave talent evaluation up to the experts, but to me this was one of the few situations where I felt strongly I knew better. I felt relatively certain Dion was the best talent on the roster by a large margin, but Gillislee had all the preseason hype (JAG that made a nice chunk of change by breaking a few long runs while defenses rested on their heels as Shady was on the sideline) and BB kept giving snaps to White (one dimensional, not that good).
I kept him where I had him in dynasty, didn't pursue him where I didn't have him, and mostly left him alone in redraft (did get him for $1 or $2 at the end of a best ball auction). But I still watched with frustrated/annoyed interest. It's good to feel vindicated at this point, though, and I can't wait to see where he lands next year. He's only 27.3 right now, so he should have several good years left... with the ever present caveat: if he can stay healthy.
packersfan
Footballguy
It's hard to question Belichick given all his success but I agree. A simple eye test tells you conclusively Lewis is their best RB. He's their only true every down RB (I know Burkhead can offer that too but he's not the runner Lewis is). Why he wasn't being used more as a receiver especially was truly baffling given how good he is in the passing game, how dynamic he is in the open field and how he makes so many defenders miss.
If it was a matter of not wanting to overwork him due to his injury history I get it. But he was so buried earlier in the season even that excuse doesn't make sense since they really weren't using him at all. I've loved this guy for the past three years. Sometimes I wish the Patriots saw everything from him that I do.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Ha. I figured I'd use the number from https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/dion-lewis/ just to be accurate. From a dynasty and FA perspective, 27.0 vs. 27.9 is not insignificant...Actually 27.32134567 let's be accurate please.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
I agree. But I think 28 is plenty young for a running back. I mean, McCoy is 29 and Ingram is 28. Sproles was effective into his early 30's. Blount had a career year at 30, still looks good at 31. Warrick Dunn was good into his early 30's if we want some small backs beyond Sproles. DeAngelo looked good in his early 30's. So I don't get scared off by RBs in the 27-29 range at all.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Lewis have very little wear and tear other then his injuries. there is lots of tread on the tires, he just needs to be used more. If is is a top 15 PPR finish is likely. I'll take that.
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
Earlier in the year he was recovering from last years injury I thought. Or BB figuring out what he has in his new RBs. After that Lewis always seemed to get pulled after 15 carries, while Burkhead was healthy, then with most other RBs dinged it was show timepackersfan said:
hoping for that again this week
He didn't have an injury last season, but was recovering (PUP list) early in last season from an injury in the previous (2015) season. Lewis had a playoff game last year where he scored like a 100 yard return TD, scored a rushing TD, and scored a receiving TD. He was fully healed from his 2015 injury at least one full year ago, so it definitely was not a problem to begin the 2017 season. There really is no clear reason/excuse for his strange and sporadic use in the 2017 season.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Lewis has his injury in the 2015 season but needed surgery again just before the 2016.
NE did exactly what they said they would do. Limit his usual early in the 2017 with a ramp up to the playoffs.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
To be fair, it did kind of look that way at the time. Talent eventually won out, but something was up.
Anarchy is usually very insightful into New England but he's always seemed to favor White for some unknown reason and low key throw shade at Dion a little bit. I'll never understand it. Dion >>> White.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Not sure why you thought that. I always felt Lewis was a much better runner / more elusive guy to tackle. However, I think BB has felt White is a better blocker and can pick up blitzers better. I also think he feels White can run more routes than Lewis can. If I posted in favor of White, it would have been for people who were suggesting White was a JAG.
If we go back 6-8 months ago, the vibe coming from NE was that they were not that into Lewis. Just look at how they allocated their money in the backfield. They extended White for 4 years at nearly $13 million. They brought in Gillislee for 2 years and $6.5 million. They added Burkhead for a little over $3 million for this season. All of those were substantially more than they would usually allocate for a RB. Yet they did not extend Lewis.
I am still not 100% convinced Lewis will be back. It will depend on how much money he wants. NE could once again have a dramatically different backfield next year, as Lewis and Burkhead are free agents and they probably have lost their love for Gillislee.
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I'd really have to do some digging, but it was over the course of probably quite a few posts in the past year or two. Lots of subtle shade for Dion and subtle hype for White. I mean, don't get me wrong. I still listen when you talk about NE. Just didn't ever grasp your stance on those two. I rarely pay attention to names on this board but when I see Stewie talking about NE, I always listen.
I hear what you're saying about the contracts, but NE doesn't have a ton of cap space and Dion had been extended at a very cheap rate previously so I don't see why they wouldn't let that ride. NE has always been reluctant to tie up much money at RB. I wouldn't be shocked if they let him walk even after his performance this year. This will be his last chance to get paid. He'll probably follow the money and I doubt NE will be high bidder.
(I'm assuming you meant to say "not" in the first sentence of your 3rd/last paragraph there)
Tau837
Footballguy
This is false, at least this season. New England is #4 in 2017 cap dollars allocated to the RB position.
I guess I should've said "had been" because the last time they had a big name back there (in his prime) - in my memory - was Corey Dillon. Feels like they've always gone rag tag since then, albeit with several capable RBs. Signing Gillislee and Burkhead to 1-year deals really skewed 2017. According to that site, until this year they'd been hovering between $2M-$4M each year. I expect Dion to get at least $4M/year on a 3-year deal. I think a Gio-like contract ($15.5M/3yrs) is realistic (with a small increase due to annual cap bump).
He looked 100% back to normal by the end of last season & post-season. He was not hurt between then and the beginning of the season. So no, that simple explanation doesn't work.
Boston
Footballguy
We are gonna have to disagree 100%...I have see every snap he has played for the Pats and he was not the same player last year...that zip he had prior to the injury was not back to 100% last year...
Boston
Footballguy
Not sure you where I posted that he sucked...that ONE game had some excellent plays but his overall body of work was not up to his pre-injury standards until a while ago this season...pretty common for a guy with legit knee issues to take a while to come all the way back...he is now back and his on-field production reflects that...
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So he lost his burst after the injury and found it for "ONE" game and then lost it again until later this season? That's not how the human body works. Dude has been back to normal for 12+ months. His usage has not.
strong
Footballguy
this just isn't true.
he's looked like the same player all season long. it's the workload that increased.
strong
Footballguy
there were the reports following the super bowl that he hurt his hammy and that's why white got all the work.
i bought into that and grabbed dion where i could. but... after he was basically a DNP in the early going, i figured the pats had made up their mind.
boy was i wrong.
garlicduck
Footballguy
JuniorGong
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
JuniorGong
Footballguy
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Well, they gave White $4 million a year. They gave Gillislee $4 million for this year. And they gave Burkhead $3.1 million for this year. I think it's possible Lewis would get more than any of those guys next year. He's proven he got his giddy up back and can carry the load when needed.
JuniorGong
Footballguy
Lewis has only made 4M for his career, I have to imagine he goes for every last dollar and can’t imagine the Pats will be the team that ponies up the most.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
He doesn’t strike me as a guy that only cares about money. If he likes winning, maybe he will take a little less. Like I said earlier, it’s a really weird market for running backs these days. They haven’t been getting a ton.
They might offer him a three year deal (two years and an option year). So two real years worth $10 million with $6 guaranteed. As you said, that would be more than his career earnings.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I agree. They're loaded at RB per their standards and they did that because any of them are expendable and they're not going to be bound by 1 guy. I mean, I love Lewis and I never really lost hope that he'd regain that form he showed a couple years back, but the PATs have proven year after year they can make a LOT of RBs good in their system. BB believes in his RB system and I think he knows any of his guys can be plugged in and produce reliably. He will not overpay for Lewis especially with White and Burkhead there. BB knows he can win with both White and Burkhead just the same.JuniorGong said:
Anarchy99
Footballguy
White is signed for three more seasons. Gillislee is signed for next year only (and is a candidate to be released). Lewis and Burkhead are free agents. They allocated roughly $11 million in cap room to those guys in 2017.
For 2018, White carries a $2.4 million cap number and Gillislee chimes in at $2.2 million. You guy can play general manager and figure out what to do.
